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Living With A Star Space Weather Dr. Art Poland/NASA GSFC 8/18/02 Why Study the Sun/Earth System • The sphere of the human environment continues to expand beyond our planet – Dependence on space-based systems – Permanent presence of humans in Earth orbit and beyond – Exploring the galaxy for life and habitability of planets • Current technology limitations impede our progress in achieving affordable advances. There is a lot to be done in the future The Visible Sun Structure of Sun Core Where the energy is created. Nuclear reactions burn every second about 700 million tons of hydrogen into helium. 158gm/cm3 Radiation Zone Where energy is transported by radiation. Although the photons travel at the speed of light, they bounce so many times through the dense material that they use about a million years to escape the Sun. Convection Zone Energy transported by convection (just like boiling soup) where heat is transported to the photosphere. SOHO Helioseismology Helioseismology EIT HeII CME EIT Corona Movie QuickTime™ and a Cinepak decompressor are needed to se this picture. CDS Multi Spectral CDS Multi-temperature Images CDS Intensity/Velocity Images Flux Tubes Conceptual Open flux tube, variable area Sun Closed flux tube, variable area Flow Conceptual Drawing of Open and Closed Flux Tubes Conservation Equations Conservation of Mass Force Balance A v 0 x A v 2 P A g A x x T Conservation of x [ A( E P)v A x ] A vg AL AS Energy v2 P E I I is Ionization Energy 2 1 Magnetogram Comet LASCO CME LASCO CME Movie QuickTime™ and a Cinepak decompressor are needed to see this picture. Aurora Solar Wind Animation Geospace Model QuickTime™ and a Cinepak decompressor are needed to see this picture. Sun-Earth System -- Driven by 11 Year Solar Cycle Sun-Earth System -- Driven by 11 Year Solar Cycle Solar Maximum: • Increased flares, solar mass ejections, radiation belt enhancements. • 100 Times Brighter X-ray Emissions 0.1% Brighter in Visible • Increased heating of Earth’s upper atmosphere; solar event induced ionospheric effects. Declining Phase, Solar Minimum: • High speed solar wind streams, solar mass ejections cause geomagnetic storms. Solar Flares Geomagnetic Storms Year 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 EIT Solar Min-Max QuickTime™ and a Cinepak decompressor are needed to see this picture. Solar Variability Can Affect Terrestrial Climate During the Little Ice Age, London’s Thames River froze in winter, something that no longer happens. This 19th century engraving depicts the annual Frost Fair held on the ice-bound river, this one during the winter of 1683-84. Given the massive economic impact of small changes in climate, we should fully understand both natural and anthropogenic causes of global change. Why do we care about the heliosphere? Why Do Science? For Utility For Understanding No Yes Yes Bohr Pasteur No Dilbert Edison From Donald Stokes (Woodrow Wilson School for Public and International Affairs, Princeton University) The Sun-Earth Connection -- Science in the Pasteur Mode • How a star works • How it affects humanity’s home • How to live with a star Man In Space Solar Variability Can Affect Space Systems How? So What? • Spacecraft charging. • Space Industry yearly revenues will be $100B by year 2000. • Solar cell damage. • SEU’s & damage to electronics. • Atmospheric drag. • Society’s dependence on space assets is increasing. • Prudence demands that we understand the space environment affecting space systems. Why Now? Expanding use of space. Proposed MEO Comsat Orbits Space Operation Market Trend Space Operation Market Trend 6 Commercial Space Commercial Space Operations Operations 5 $B 3 Military and Civil Space Operations 2 Military & Civilian Space Operations 1 03 04 05 06 20 06 02 20 05 Year 20 04 01 20 03 00 20 02 19 99 99 20 01 98 20 00 97 19 98 0 19 97 $B 4 time Source: KPMG Study GEO Comsats Solar Variability Can Affect Where We Live • Electric grid disruption and power transformer damage. • GPS signals, high frequency (HF and VHF) radio communications, and long range radar. • Microelectronics and humans in high altitude aircraft. Calculated Warming/Cooling of Greenhouse Gases, Calculated Warming/Cooling of Aerosols, and Solar Input Greenhouse Gases, Aerosols, & Solar Input 1.4 • Telecommunication cables. GHG GHG 1.2 GHG + Aerosols GHG + Aerosols 0.6 0.4 0.2 Year Curves based on Wigley et al. calculations (1997) 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 0 1880 fingerprints are showing up all over the climate records. The 11- and 22-year sunspot cycles have turned up in other analyses of ocean temperatures and in ice cores....” Science, March 8, 1996 Observed Observed 0.8 1870 • Terrestrial climate. “The Sun’s GHG + Aerosols +Solar GHG + Aerosols +Solar 1860 • High precision electronic chip fabrication. Temperature (C) 1 Living With A Star Research Network Pole Sitter Solar Polar Orbiter Solar Dynamics Observatory L1 Solar Sentinel L3 Solar Sentinel L5 Solar Sentinel Ionospheric Mappers Radiation Belt Mappers L2 Distributed network of spacecraft providing continuous observations of Sun-Earth system •Solar Dynamics Network observing Sun & tracking disturbances from Sun to Earth. •Geospace Dynamics Nework with constellations of smallsats in key regions of geospace. Radiation Belt Mappers • Understand origin and dynamics of the radiation belts. • Determine time & space-dependent evolution of penetrating radiation during magnetic storms. • First Element: multiple spacecraft in 3 petal equatorial orbits; in-situ measurements. • Second Element: Add higher latitude coverage. SOHO Home Page sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov lws.gsfc.nasa.gov END