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Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation Possibilities of using information technologies for KNI evaluation Auditor of Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation Alexander Piskunov KNI transparency problem 2 Progress definition Freedom as realized necessity Freedom as possibility of self-realization (F. Engels) (A. Sena) Freedom as the realized potential possibilities of realization of final goals Development of socio-economic capabilities as ends and means of development 3 Using the capabilities approach for a comprehensive evaluation of a project Capability: property of a system, probability that the system will succeed in achieving the goal of its functioning. The correspondence between required and predicted state sets in the functioning of a system can be represented as the probability of the following binary predicate being true: Poss k 1, K Yk Ykд Y , k 1, K прогнозные ; predicted stateзначения set Y , k 1, K required state set значения. требуемые k д k 4 Problem of development management evaluation Measurement of social-economical capability as progress measurement 5 Evaluation of key assets indexes of providing competitive ability potentials 6 Key National Indicators Knowledge Base Terms and definitions Glossary Databases provided by national statistics agencies and international institutions, including UN, OECD, WB, IMF, Eurostat Atributes Computation methodologies Reference information on indicators Statistics Strategic goals International standards and agreements Normative documents 7 Cluster analysis results (based on 410 KNI provided by World Bank with 2000-2008 time frame) 8 Cluster analysis results (based on 119 competitiveness indicators provided by WEF 2010) 9 KNI identification with Data Mining techniques 410 indicators 36 countries time frame 2004 – 2008 Global Competitiveness Index Uncovering hidden patterns with Data Mining techniques Revealed dependencies of Global Competitiveness Index on KNI 10 Statistically significant KNI Significant indicators identified with convenient statistical techniques Socio-economic development indicator Correlation coefficient Number of Internet users, per 100 citizens 0.879 Life expectancy at birth, years 0.736 GDP per capita, PPP US$ 0.716 Female survival to age 65, % of cohort 0.702 Population ages 65 and above, % of total 0.516 Significant indicators identified with Data Mining techniques Socio-economic development indicator Correlation coefficient Agricultural raw materials imports, % of merchandise imports -0.083 Electricity production from oil sources, % of total -0.332 Urban population growth, annual % -0.107 Foreign direct investment, net inflows, % of GDP 0.034 11 Problem of development metrics transparency 12 Socio-economic development comparison 13 Results of complex KNI assessment 14 Results of complex KNI assessment Country C Country B 15 Problem of development potentials comparison 16 Conceptual space for development potential assessment 17 Results of KNI assessment with imitation modeling of development programs 18 Interval-based assessment of investment projects 19 Capability indicator at a critically low level 20 Information technology improvements in management and audit 21 The practice of comprehensive audit 22 Indicators for comprehensive evaluation 23 The architecture of comprehensive audit Performance audit Analyze and diagnose the results of FA and PA 24