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Discovery of synoptic patterns of climate variability and change using data mining and high performance computing Climate Wikience: A Summary of Results P.I. Prof. Averin G.V. Speaker Prof. Bashkov E.A. Ideas, Architect, Slides Rodriges Zalipynis R.A. Developers Zapletin E.A., Melnykov A.I. Donetsk National Technical University Ukraine The Wikience Concept Let’s “create” new analysts! Usually domain experts have a solid background on the subject. They will perform very well without computer scientists, even if equipped with much simpler tools. They know what to seek and how to seek. Many active experts are currently uninvolved, especially operational professionals. Wikience Originates from Wiki + Science Wikience – international pronunciation rather than wiki science Wiki science – already reserved – is the study of how the phenomenon of wikis, and free, open collaborative works in general (like free software and open source), are growing, changing and adapting. http://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Wiki_science Reanalysis archives Interpolate all available data by statistical and numerical methods on regular latitude-longitude grid Reanalysis archives Pioneer, released in 1996 • NCEP/NCAR 2 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 • ERA-40, ERA-15 • ERA-Interim 1949 – present • JRA-25 2.5 x 2.5 grid • NOAA-CIRES 20CR Applications • NASA MERRA From simple warming • NCEP CFSR trends to validation of climate models Over 9 000 publications reference Kalnay et al., The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, BAMS, 77, 437-470, 1996. Visualization is vital for data understanding and perception Is it? University of Melbourne (Australia) Visualization is vital for data understanding and perception Is it? National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA) Visualization is vital for data understanding and perception Is it? Improving the Accuracy of Mapping Cyclone Numbers and Frequencies, 2010 by O.Zolina and S. Gulev (Russia) Wikience 4D isopleths • 1st in the world • real-time • closed polygons (GIS) • all TBs of reanalysis data on-line KEY GRAPHICS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH Obstacles for wide data accessibility Vast amounts of data (TBs) 1996 NCEP/NCAR ~ 4 TB 2010 NCEP CFSRR ~ 100 TB Real-time technology for thousands of users How to maintain all available data on-line? Scientific formats Convert data to new representation? Need to keep metadata intact Invent new schemas to import metadata into? 3D visualization technology No open algorithms for isopleths, are they? ChronosServer Turns vast amounts of existing data into actionable intelligence Rodriges Zalipynis R.A. ChronosServer: real-time access to “native” multiterabyte retrospective data warehouse by thousands of concurrent clients. Informatics, cybernetics and computer engineering, pp. 151–161. Vol. 14 (188) – Donetsk: DonNTU — 2011. – 391 p. Atmospheric major components: cyclones Areas of low pressure (simple definition) Seen as several closed isobars nested in each other Climate is changing along with cyclones Cyclone importance • heat transition from tropics to the poles • define local weather • local winds • severe weather events • pollution situation key drivers of climate change How to research cyclones? – Track Initial In a day Sharing “active” research data 4D Cyclone paths • 1st in the world • real-time Others can: • verify tracks • interactively analyze • use in own research Remote Sensing: Terra MODIS • 36 spectral channels • Daily frequency • Global coverage MODIS L3 product • Global 1º×1º grid • Over 600 datasets (clouds, water vapor, aerosol properties) Terra MODIS: Cloud Optical Thickness Tropical Cyclones Hurricane Katrina IBTrACS International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship • 1842 – present just a picture • multiple characteristics • the most complete August 23 – 30, 2005 280 km/h highest wind 1,833 fatalities $108 billion damage IBTrACS: Hurricane Katrina NOT just a picture Hurricane Katrina (IBTrACS) and Cloud Optical Thickness (MODIS L3) August 28, 2005 Near peak strength Simply select & watch Analysis tools Acknowledgements This work was supported by Award No. UKM1-2973-DO-09 of the U.S. Civilian Research & Development Foundation (CRDF). Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CRDF. DNTU Computer Cluster • Hybrid GPU-CPU • 32 CPU cores • 2 688 GPU cores, CUDA • 7 Teraflops • 35 TB HDD • 1 Gbit/sec local network • 1 Gbit/sec Internet band, optic fiber • 10 KW power supply Donetsk National Technical University Global Models Databases in knowledge domains Wikience Data mining Donetsk National Technical University Development of human potential Database fusion: World bank http://data.worldbank.org UN Development Program http://www.hdr.undp.org Economical Forum http://www.weforum.org Data mining: Multidimensional scaling Donetsk National Technical University Planet Biodiversity Database fusion: (Databases of animal and plants) GIS-models for areals of biological species spread (150 - 200 thousands of main animal and plant species) Climate reanalysis archives Donetsk National Technical University Data mining: world countries development indicators Population with age before15 Children's mortality Fertility Tuberculosis rate Internet users Governmental debt service Donetsk National Technical University Data mining: world countries development - energy Country’s rate according to development rate Development index Country’s rate Norway 63138 2 6 USA 35043 10 16 Germany 18045 22 53 Poland 9155 50 49 Russian 15658 33 22 Ukraine 9108 51 42 China 3500 91 65 India 1385 115 95 Nigeria 305 138 126 Country Donetsk National Technical University ЕЕА and DNTU: System for ecological monitoring of Donetsk region – English version Discovery of synoptic patterns of climate variability and change using data mining and high performance computing Climate Wikience: A Summary of Results wikience.donntu.edu.ua Contact address: [email protected] Please, reference materials taken from this presentation as Rodriges Zalipynis R.A., Averin G.V., Zapletin E.A., Melnykov A.I., Bashkov E.A., Climate Wikience: A Summary of Results, Minneapolis, USA, 2012. Web: wikience.donntu.edu.ua/rodriges/publications/rodriges_CRDF_2012.pptx