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The Battle for Mindshare A Battle Beyond Access and Retrieval Dr. John J. Regazzi Miles Conrad Lecture NFAIS Conference 2004 Battle for Mindshare The Context The ‘Shifting Sands’ What Way Forward THE CONTEXT Information Supply Chain Information Supply Chain Historical AUTHORS PUBLISHERS LIBRARIES READERS 2 THE CONTEXT Information Supply Chain Information Supply Chain Early Online Impact AUTHORS PUBLISHERS A&I SERVICES, ONLINE VENDORS LIBRARIES READERS 3 THE CONTEXT Information Supply Chain A simple information “supply chain” has been transformed into a complex information network… 4 THE CONTEXT Information Supply Chain Information Supply Chain Today OPEN ACCES S AUTHORS eBOOK, eJOURNALS PREPRINT SERVERS CONTENT AGGREGATORS PUBLISHERS SECONDARY PUBLISHING LOCAL SYSTEMS DDS, SILVER PLATTER LIBRARIES SYNDICATORS & FACTIVA AGENTS ONLINE VENDORS DIALOG, STN, LN DOCUMENT DELIVERY SERVICES KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS CORPORATE INFORMATION SERVICES NEW ONLINE PORTALS WEB PORTALS GOOGLE NATIONAL/REGIONAL CONSORTIA INFORMATION INTERMEDIARIES READERS 5 THE CONTEXT Information Supply Chain A simple information “supply chain” has been transformed into a (perhaps too) complex information network … How did this happen? 6 THE CONTEXT What Happened? Technology Explosion Directory Data Expansion Discovery & Access Systems Growth Significant A&I Industry Growth Or Did It ? 7 THE CONTEXT Explosion of Technology Information Technology Costs 1972 vs. 2003 $ per million transactions 9000 1000 2500 4500 Storage Characters Telecommunications Characters NY - LA CPU Power Instructions 5000 .001 0 1972 2003 8 THE CONTEXT Growth of Data Refereed Academic Journal Growth 1900-2000 Number of Journals 3.3% 4.7% 3.3% 100 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 9 THE CONTEXT Growth of Databases Number of Databases 150% 10YR Growth Rate 20,000 est. 8,000 7 1972 1992 2003 Records in Databases 122% 10YR Growth Rate 2M 1972 5.2 M 1982 10 BN est. 4.5 BN 1992 2003 10 THE CONTEXT Growth of the A&I Market Adjusted figures show that the A&I market is shrinking in overall size. STM A&I Global Revenues 1972-2003 - 5% Market Growth since 1999 5.3% Annual Growth $1BN $830M $200M 1972 1982 1992 1999 2003 Note: 0-1% growth in constant dollar 11 THE SHIFTING SANDS Shifting Sands What Shifts? And why ...? University Infrastructure Spending A&I Production, Coverage and Focus Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns Early Shifts in Access Models Shifts in Mindshare With what has commonly been known as the information explosion … With the revolution of information technology fully engaged … With full acceptance, access and use of the technologies now in full force … Why is the Information Access Market not growing but in decline? 12 THE SHIFTING SANDS University Infrastructure Spending Research & Library Spending Growth 1975-1995 Index 260 240 220 200 180 US Total Academic R&D 160 140 Avg ARL Library Expenditure 120 100 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 13 THE SHIFTING SANDS University Infrastructure Spending Library Expenditures as a Percent of University Expenditures 40 ARL Libraries, 1982-2000 % 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 14 THE SHIFTING SANDS University Infrastructure Spending Expenditures at (Private) US University A Academic Support 63.0% Serials 0.2% Monographs 0.1% Other Materials 0.1% Library 1.3% Salaries & Wages 0.6% Binding 0.0% Other 0.3% Other 37.5% 15 THE SHIFTING SANDS A&I Production & Coverage STM Database Expansion – Duplication of Effort Shifting Sands Creation of inefficient market where library pays multiple times for same record, plus (often) increase distribution markups Current Indexes Overlap 2001 Study 55% 53% Significant Redundancies in Public & Private Sectors 23% Records in Databases 10 BN est. 4.5 BN 2M 1972 5.2 M 1982 1992 122% 10YR Growth Rate 2003 Science Education Social Science 16 THE SHIFTING SANDS Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns Online Technology Impact Growth in Online Usage Drivers US Household PC Acceptance Societal Behavioral Factors 80BN Online Search > 1M 2002 1972 • 22% have more than 1 PC • 7-10% are networked • >50% have Internet Access • 68% children use it for school • 64% adults use it for Information 589M PC Units ⇧600% 2.1M 2002 1972 172M Web Hosts 130 1972 Household s with PC’s 1972 2002 2003 17 THE SHIFTING SANDS Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns Online Experience > 3 years using internet 70% Total 82% MD's % 86% PhD's 91% Over 55 Work-related Internet Use Days per Week Increase % 95 100 to 65% in over 55 group 15 33 80 60 47 40 Work-related Search Engine Use Days per Week % 100 86 12 41 80 60 33 40 20 20 0 7 D ay s ay s 26 D ay D 1 W ee kl y s 67 D ay s ay D 45 ay D 13 W ee kl s y 0 18 THE SHIFTING SANDS Scientists’ and Researchers’ Search Patterns Early shift in Access Models to desktop Shifting Sands Experimentation by primary publishers with free access to metadata IEEE+ Google Cross Search Information Supply Chain Historical AUTHORS PUBLISHERS SEARCH ENGINE READERS 19 THE SHIFTING SANDS Shifts in Mindshare Who has the mindshare lead? Top 3 Online Scientific Search Resources Librarians VS Scientists Science Direct ISI Web of Science Medline Google Yahoo PubMed 42% 2% 37% 2% 31% 2% 0% 39% 0% 10% 11% 9% Librarians Scientists 20 THE SHIFTING SANDS Shifts in Mindshare Just how much are Search Engines worth? Search Engine vs. A&I Industry 2002 30 $, Billions Market Value 2 Search Engine - 5 YRS Development 3 Sales Revenue 0.8 A & I - 100 YRS Development 21 WHAT WAY FORWARD A Sea of Change But what will researchers need and will search engines alone be able to deliver Scientists and Researchers have needed to become much more pragmatic Researchers increasingly work in teams – less emphasis on research and more on development as seen in top five information sources used Corporate research teams are involved from design to market launch and need information that is traditional (journals, reports, etc.) but also business and regulatory Data Integration/Data Mining 22 WHAT WAY FORWARD Pharmaceutical and Biotech Needs Indexed Growth (1991 = 100) 250 200 R&D Expenditure 150 Sales Development Time 100 New Drugs 50 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 DATA INTEGRATION/DATA MINING Scientists still have to integrate different information sources in a related context, be they sources of internal & external information, or scientific and business information BCG estimates $282M (33% of R&D costs) could be saved with an integrated content platform Making informed decisions: The top three barriers identified by Outsell for corporate scientists Inability to compare across information sources Determining quality, credibility and accuracy Knowing what is available Key driver to improved productivity in biopharmaceutical R&D, 23 WHAT WAY FORWARD Health Care Needs Patient Information and Treatment History Physical Exam Lab Diagnosis Evaluation Prevention Risk Reduction Orders Drugs Procedures Tests Referrals Patient Education 24 WHAT WAY FORWARD Agricultural Engineering Needs CONTEXT Search the database to produce a list of possible pests. TREATMENT CABI COMPENDIUM Datasheet provides a route to further text, pictures and maps. ASSESSMENT Compare pest and crop distribution 25 WHAT WAY FORWARD Summary Who can deliver these viable information resources? Well neither content nor search is king here! Rather it is those organizations which can Filter and select Structure the content Provide the essential information at the right time Provide a context – ‘a sense-making’ tool In short, the future belongs not to those that merely navigate us through cyberspace, nor those who populate it with data. Rather it belongs to those who help us make sense of all that is available to us. 26