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ICS 178 Introduction Machine Learning & data Mining Instructor max Welling Lecture 6: Logistic Regression Logistic Regression • This is also regression but with targets Y=(0,1). I.e. it is classification! • We will fit a regression function on P(Y=1|X) linear regression logistic regression fi (x ) Aij xj Aij xj Yn AXn b P (Yn 1 | Xn ) f (AXn b ) f (X ) 1 1 exp[ (AX b )] Sigmoid function f(x) fi (x ) Aij data-points with Y=1 xj P (Yn 1 | Xn ) f (AXn b ) data-points with Y=0 f (X ) 1 1 exp[ (AX b )] In 2 Dimensions A,b determine 1) orientation 2) thickness (margin) 3) offset of decision surface sigmoid f(x) Cost Function • We want a different error measure that is better suited for 0/1 data. • This can be derived from maximizing the probability of the data again. P (Yn 1 | Xn ) f (AXn b ) P (Yn 0 | Xn ) 1 f (AXn b ) P (Yn | Xn ) f (Xn )Yn (1 f (Yn ))1Yn N Error Yn logf (Xn ) (1 Yn )log(1 f (Xn )) n 1 Learning A,b • Again, we take the derivatives of the Error wrt to the parameters. • This time however, we can’t solve them analytically, so we use gradient descent. dError A A dA dError b b db Gradients for Logistic Regression • After the math (on the white-board) we find: T Error Yn 1 f (Xn ) (1 Yn )f (Xn ) Xn A n Error Yn 1 f (Xn ) (1 Yn )f (Xn ) b n Note: first term in each eqn. (multiplied by Y) only sums over data with Y=1, while second term (multiplied by (1-Y) only sums over data with Y=0. Follow the gradient until the change in A,b falls below a small theshold (e.g. 1E-6). Classification • Once we have found the optimal values for A,b we classify future data with: Ynew round (f (Xnew )) • Least squares and Logistic regression are parametric methods since all the information in the data is stored in the parameters A,b, i.e. after learning you can toss out the data. • Also, the decision surface is always linear, its complexity does not grow with the amount of data. • We have imposed our prior knowledge that the decision surface should be linear. A Real Example collaboration with S. Cole) • Fingerprints are matched against a data-base. • Each match is scored. • Using Logistic Regression we try to predict if a future match is a real or false. • Human fingerprint examiners claim 100% accuracy. Is this true? Exercise • You have layed your hands on a dataset where data have a single attribute and a class label (0 or 1). You train a logistic regression classifier. A new data-case is presented. What do you do to decide in what class it falls (use an equation or pseudo-code) • How many parameters are there to tune for this problem? Explain what these parameters mean in terms of the function P(Y=1|X).