Download Data Mining Techniques in CRM

Data Mining
Techniques for CRM
Seyyed Jamaleddin Pishvayi
Customer Relationship Management
Instructor : Dr. Taghiyare
Tehran University
Spring 1383
Outlines
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What is Data Mining?
Data Mining Motivation
Data Mining Applications
Applications of Data Mining in CRM
Data Mining Taxonomy
Data Mining Techniques
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Data Mining
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The non-trivial extraction of novel, implicit, and actionable
knowledge from large datasets.
 Extremely large datasets
 Discovery of the non-obvious
 Useful knowledge that can improve processes
 Can not be done manually
Technology to enable data exploration, data analysis, and data
visualization of very large databases at a high level of
abstraction, without a specific hypothesis in mind.
Sophisticated data search capability that uses statistical
algorithms to discover patterns and correlations in data.
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Data Mining (cont.)
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Data Mining (cont.)
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Data Mining is a step of Knowledge Discovery in
Databases (KDD) Process
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Data Warehousing
Data Selection
Data Preprocessing
Data Transformation
Data Mining
Interpretation/Evaluation
Data Mining is sometimes referred to as KDD and
DM and KDD tend to be used as synonyms
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Data Mining Evaluation
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Data Mining is Not …
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Data warehousing
SQL / Ad Hoc Queries / Reporting
Software Agents
Online Analytical Processing (OLAP)
Data Visualization
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Data Mining Motivation
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Changes in the Business Environment
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Databases today are huge:
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Customers becoming more demanding
Markets are saturated
More than 1,000,000 entities/records/rows
From 10 to 10,000 fields/attributes/variables
Gigabytes and terabytes
Databases a growing at an unprecedented rate
Decisions must be made rapidly
Decisions must be made with maximum knowledge
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Data Mining Motivation
“The key in business is to know something that
nobody else knows.”
— Aristotle Onassis
PHOTO: LUCINDA DOUGLAS-MENZIES
PHOTO: HULTON-DEUTSCH COLL
“To understand is to perceive patterns.”
— Sir Isaiah Berlin
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Data Mining Applications
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Data Mining Applications:
Retail
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Performing basket analysis
 Which items customers tend to purchase together. This
knowledge can improve stocking, store layout strategies, and
promotions.
Sales forecasting
 Examining time-based patterns helps retailers make stocking
decisions. If a customer purchases an item today, when are they
likely to purchase a complementary item?
Database marketing
 Retailers can develop profiles of customers with certain
behaviors, for example, those who purchase designer labels
clothing or those who attend sales. This information can be used
to focus cost–effective promotions.
Merchandise planning and allocation
 When retailers add new stores, they can improve merchandise
planning and allocation by examining patterns in stores with
similar demographic characteristics. Retailers can also use data
mining to determine the ideal layout for a specific store.
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Data Mining Applications:
Banking
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Card marketing
 By identifying customer segments, card issuers and acquirers
can improve profitability with more effective acquisition and
retention programs, targeted product development, and
customized pricing.
Cardholder pricing and profitability
 Card issuers can take advantage of data mining technology to
price their products so as to maximize profit and minimize loss of
customers. Includes risk-based pricing.
Fraud detection
 Fraud is enormously costly. By analyzing past transactions that
were later determined to be fraudulent, banks can identify
patterns.
Predictive life-cycle management
 DM helps banks predict each customer’s lifetime value and to
service each segment appropriately (for example, offering special
deals and discounts).
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Data Mining Applications:
Telecommunication
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Call detail record analysis
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Telecommunication companies accumulate detailed call
records. By identifying customer segments with similar use
patterns, the companies can develop attractive pricing and
feature promotions.
Customer loyalty
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Some customers repeatedly switch providers, or “churn”, to
take advantage of attractive incentives by competing
companies. The companies can use DM to identify the
characteristics of customers who are likely to remain loyal
once they switch, thus enabling the companies to target
their spending on customers who will produce the most
profit.
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Data Mining Applications:
Other Applications
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Customer segmentation
 All industries can take advantage of DM to discover discrete
segments in their customer bases by considering additional
variables beyond traditional analysis.
Manufacturing
 Through choice boards, manufacturers are beginning to
customize products for customers; therefore they must be able to
predict which features should be bundled to meet customer
demand.
Warranties
 Manufacturers need to predict the number of customers who will
submit warranty claims and the average cost of those claims.
Frequent flier incentives
 Airlines can identify groups of customers that can be given
incentives to fly more.
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Data Mining in CRM:
Customer Life Cycle
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Customer Life Cycle
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Key stages in the customer lifecycle
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The stages in the relationship between a customer and a
business
Prospects: people who are not yet customers but are in
the target market
Responders: prospects who show an interest in a product
or service
Active Customers: people who are currently using the
product or service
Former Customers: may be “bad” customers who did not
pay their bills or who incurred high costs
It’s important to know life cycle events (e.g.
retirement)
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Data Mining in CRM:
Customer Life Cycle
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What marketers want: Increasing customer
revenue and customer profitability
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Up-sell
Cross-sell
Keeping the customers for a longer period of time
Solution: Applying data mining
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Data Mining in CRM
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DM helps to
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Determine the behavior surrounding a particular
lifecycle event
Find other people in similar life stages and
determine which customers are following similar
behavior patterns
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Data Mining in CRM (cont.)
Data Warehouse
Customer Profile
Data Mining
Customer Life Cycle Info.
Campaign Management
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Data Mining in CRM:
More
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Building Data Mining Applications for CRM
by Alex Berson, Stephen Smith, Kurt
Thearling (McGraw Hill, 2000).
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Data Mining Techniques
Data Mining Techniques
Descriptive
Predictive
Clustering
Classification
Association
Decision Tree
Sequential Analysis
Rule Induction
Neural Networks
Nearest Neighbor Classification
Regression
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Two Good Algorithm Books
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Intelligent Data
Analysis: An
Introduction
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by Berthold and Hand
The Elements of
Statistical Learning:
Data Mining, Inference,
and Prediction
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by Hastie, Tibshirani, and
Friedman
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Predictive Data Mining
Honest
Tridas
Vickie
Mike
Wally
Waldo
Barney
Crooked
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Prediction
Tridas
Vickie
Mike
Honest = has round eyes and a smile
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Decision Trees
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Data
height
short
tall
tall
short
tall
tall
tall
short
hair
blond
blond
red
dark
dark
blond
dark
blond
eyes
blue
brown
blue
blue
blue
blue
brown
brown
class
A
B
A
B
B
A
B
B
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Decision Trees (cont.)
hair
dark
blond
red
short, blue = B
tall, blue = B
tall, brown= B
{tall, blue = A}
Completely classifies dark-haired
and red-haired people
short, blue = A
tall, brown = B
tall, blue = A
short, brown = B
Does not completely classify
blonde-haired people.
More work is required
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Decision Trees (cont.)
hair
dark
blond
red
short, blue = B
tall, blue = B
tall, brown= B
{tall, blue = A}
Decision tree is complete because
1. All 8 cases appear at nodes
2. At each node, all cases are in
the same class (A or B)
short, blue = A
tall, brown = B
tall, blue = A
short, brown = B
eye
blue
short = A
tall = A
brown
tall = B
short = B
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Decision Trees:
Learned Predictive Rules
hair
dark
blond
red
B
A
eyes
blue
A
brown
B
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Decision Trees:
Another Example
Total list
50% member
0-1 child
$50-75k income
15% member
2-3 child
20% member
$75k+ income
70% member
4+ children
$50-75k income
Age: 20-40
45% member
$20-50k income
85% member
Age: 40-60
80% member
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Rule Induction
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Try to find rules of the form
IF <left-hand-side> THEN <right-hand-side>
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This is the reverse of a rule-based agent, where the rules are
given and the agent must act. Here the actions are given
and we have to discover the rules!
Prevalence = probability that LHS and RHS
occur together (sometimes called “support factor,”
“leverage” or “lift”)
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Predictability = probability of RHS given LHS
(sometimes called “confidence” or “strength”)
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Association Rules from
Market Basket Analysis
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<Dairy-Milk-Refrigerated>  <Soft Drinks Carbonated>
 prevalence = 4.99%, predictability = 22.89%
<Dry Dinners - Pasta>  <Soup-Canned>
 prevalence = 0.94%, predictability = 28.14%
<Dry Dinners - Pasta>  <Cereal - Ready to Eat>
 prevalence = 1.36%, predictability = 41.02%
<Cheese Slices >  <Cereal - Ready to Eat>
 prevalence = 1.16%, predictability = 38.01%
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Use of Rule Associations
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Coupons, discounts
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Product placement
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Offer correlated products to the customer at the same
time. Increases sales
Timing of cross-marketing
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Don’t give discounts on 2 items that are frequently
bought together. Use the discount on 1 to “pull” the
other
Send camcorder offer to VCR purchasers 2-3 months
after VCR purchase
Discovery of patterns
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People who bought X, Y and Z (but not any pair)
bought W over half the time
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Finding Rule Associations
Algorithm
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Example: grocery shopping
For each item, count # of occurrences (say out of 100,000)
apples 1891, caviar 3, ice cream 1088, …
Drop the ones that are below a minimum support level
apples 1891, ice cream 1088, pet food 2451, …
Make a table of each item against each other item:
apples ice cream pet food
apples
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1891
685
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ice cream
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1088
322
pet food
-----
-----
2451
Discard cells below support threshold. Now make a cube for
triples, etc. Add 1 dimension for each product on LHS.
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Clustering
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The art of finding groups in data
Objective: gather items from a database into
sets according to (unknown) common
characteristics
Much more difficult than classification since
the classes are not known in advance (no
training)
Technique: unsupervised learning
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The K-Means Clustering
Method
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cluster center
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Thanks
Seyyed Jamaleddin Pishvayi
Customer Relationship Management
Instructor : Dr. Taghiyare
Tehran University
Spring 1383