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wik-Consult • Final Report Study for the European Commission The Economics of IP Networks – Market, Technical and Public Policy Issues Relating to Internet Traffic Exchange Main Report and Annexes Bad Honnef, May 2002 Disclaimer The opinions expressed in this Study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. © ECSC – EC – EAEC, Brussels – Luxembourg 2002 Authors: Dieter Elixmann Mark Scanlan With contributions from: Alberto E. García Klaus Hackbarth Annette Hillebrand Gabriele Kulenkampff Anette Metzler Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks I Table of Contents List of Figures V List of Tables VI Table of Contents of Annexes VII List of Annexed Figures VIII List of Annexed Tables VIII 1 Introduction and Aims 1 Part I – Internet systems and data 2 General features of the Internet 5 2.1 Applications and services generating traffic on the Internet 5 2.2 How traffic is exchanged 9 2.3 Types of ISPs 13 2.4 Roots of the Internet 16 3 Technical background to traffic exchange: Addressing, routing and "Autonomous Systems" 18 3.1 Internet addressing 18 3.1.1 Names and the Domain Name System 18 3.1.2 IPv4 addressing schemes 19 3.1.3 IPv6 addressing issues 22 3.2 Internet routing 23 3.2.1 Routing protocols 23 3.2.2 Static, dynamic and default routing 25 3.2.3 IPv6 routing issues 26 3.3 Autonomous Systems 27 3.3.1 Partitioning of a network into ASes 28 3.3.2 Multi-Exit Discriminator 30 3.3.3 Confederations 30 4 Quality of service 31 4.1 The QoS problem put in context 31 4.2 The quality of Internet service 34 4.2.1 What is QoS? 34 4.2.2 Congestion and QoS 38 II Final Report for the European Commission 4.3 QoS problems at borders 38 4.4 QoS and the Next Generation Internet 40 4.5 Conclusion: Service quality problem areas 45 5 Interconnection and Partial Substitutes 46 5.1 The structure of connectivity 46 5.2 Interconnection: Peering 47 5.2.1 Settlement free peering 47 5.2.2 Paid peering 48 5.2.3 Private peering 49 5.2.4 Public peering 51 5.2.5 Structural variations in peering 51 5.3 Interconnection: Transit 56 5.3.1 Rationale 56 5.3.2 The structure of transit prices 57 5.3.3 QoS guarantees for transit 59 5.4 Multi-homing 60 5.5 Hosting, caching, mirroring, and content delivery networks 61 5.6 A loose hierarchy of ISP interconnection 64 6 Empirical evidence concerning traffic exchange arrangements in the Internet 67 6.1 Characteristics of Internet exchange points 67 6.1.1 Methodology and data sources 67 6.1.2 NAPs in the USA and Canada 68 6.1.3 Important NAPs in Europe 71 6.1.4 Additional features of European NAPs 77 6.1.5 U.S. Internet backbone providers at non-U.S. international NAPs 78 6.1.6 Additional features characterising a NAP 80 6.2 Main Internet backbone players 81 6.2.1 Basic features of the empirical approach 81 6.2.2 Internet Backbone Providers in Europe 82 6.2.3 Internet Backbone Providers in North America 84 6.3 Internet growth, performance and traffic flows 6.3.1 Routing table growth 85 85 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks III 6.3.2 AS number growth 87 6.3.3 Internet Performance 88 6.3.4 Internet Traffic 92 6.4 About Peering 94 6.4.1 Peering policies 94 6.4.2 New peering initiative in the U.S. 96 6.5 Capacity exchanges 97 Part II – Public policy 7 Economic background to Internet public policy issues 7.1 Economic factors relevant in analysing market failure involving the Internet 7.1.1 The basis of public policy interest in this study 99 99 99 7.1.2 Externalities 101 7.1.3 Market power 109 7.1.4 Existing regulation 112 8 Possible public policy concerns analysed in terms of market failure 8.1 About congestion management on the Internet 114 114 8.1.1 QoS and the limitations of cheap bandwidth 114 8.1.2 Pricing and congestion 116 8.1.3 Grade-of-Service pricing 123 8.1.4 Conclusion regarding the congestion problem 124 8.2 Strategic opportunities of backbones to increase or use their market power 125 8.2.1 Network effects 125 8.2.2 Network effects and interconnection incentives 126 8.2.3 Differentiation and traffic exchange 132 8.2.4 Fragmentation and changes in industry structure 136 8.2.5 Price discrimination 138 8.3 Standardisation issues 142 8.4 Market failure concerning addressing 145 8.4.1 The replacement of IPv4 by IPv6 145 8.4.2 Routing table growth 152 8.4.3 AS number growth 154 8.4.4 Conclusions regarding addressing issues 154 IV Final Report for the European Commission 8.5 Existing regulation 155 8.6 Summary of public policy interest 158 8.7 Main findings of the study 160 References 164 List of companies and organisations interviewed 171 Glossary 172 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks V List of Figures Figure 2-1: Value flows and payment flows of Internet based communication Figure 2-2: Basic features of a private end-user’s access to the content and services 8 on the Internet 10 Figure 2-3: Hierarchical view of the Internet (I) 12 Figure 2-4: Interrelationship of different types of ISPs to enable Internet communication 13 Figure 3-1: Example of an IP address expressed in dotted decimal notation 19 Figure 3-2: Routing of traffic of an end-user connected to two ISPs 29 Figure 4-1: Relation of current and future logical layer with physical layers 32 Figure 4-2: End-to-end QoS 33 Figure 4-3: Application specific loss and delay variation QoS requirements 36 Figure 4-4: Demand for Internet service deconstructed 42 Figure 4-5: Fitting GoSes within service QoS requirements 44 Figure 5-1: Hierarchical View of the Internet (II): Peering and transit relationships between ISPs 46 Figure 5-2: Technical obstacles behind paid peering 49 Figure 5-3: Secondary peering and transit compared 50 Figure 5-4: Functional value chain of a NAP 52 Figure 5-5: Multihoming between ISPs 60 Figure 5-6: A visual depiction of caching 62 Figure 5-7: A visual depiction of mirroring 63 Figure 5-8: Basic features of Content Delivery Networks 64 Figure 6-1: Overview of cities with NAPs in Europe 72 Figure 6-2: Cities hosting the 13 most important NAPs in Europe 75 Figure 6-3: Development of the number of routes on the Internet between January 1994 and November 2001 Figure 6-4: 86 Development of the number of ASes on the Internet for the period October 1996 through November 2001 87 Figure 6-5: Development of latency on the Internet between 1994 and Sept 2000 89 Figure 6-6: Development of packet loss on the Internet between 1994 and Sept 2000 90 Figure 6-7: Development of reachability on the Internet between 1994 and Sept 2000 91 Figure 6-8: Daily traffic of CERN 92 VI Final Report for the European Commission Figure 6-9: Weekly traffic of CERN 93 Figure 7-1: Network effects and private ownership 104 Figure 7-2: Maximum Internet externality benefits for private subscriptions 105 Figure 7-3: Cost allocation under flat-rate pricing and the effect on penetration. 107 Figure 8-1: VoIP; ‘on-net’ and ‘off-net’. 134 Figure 8-2: Degraded interconnection and non-substitutable services having strong network effects 135 Figure 8-3: IPv4 address depletion 146 Figure 8-4: Non-neutral treatment of communications services in the USA 157 List of Tables Table 4-1: Traffic hierarchies in next generation networks 43 Table 5-1: A taxonomy of Internet exchange points 55 Table 6-1: Features of the most important NAPs in the USA and Canada (ordered according to the number of ISPs connected) 69 Table 6-2: Classification of NAPs in Western and Eastern Europe (as of May 2001) 73 Table 6-3: Features of the 13 most important NAPs in Europe (ordered according to the number of ISPs connected) 76 Table 6-4: Founding members of EURO-IX (as of May 2001) 78 Table 6-5: Important Internet backbone providers in Europe (minimum of 5 NAP connections to different international nodes of global importance in Europe) Table 6-6: 83 Important Internet backbone providers in North America as of 2000 (minimum of 4 NAP connections to different important nodes in North America) 84 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks VII Table of Contents of Annexes A Annex to Chapter 3 178 A-1 Names and the Domain Name System 178 A-2 IPv4 addressing issues 179 A-3 Route aggregation 186 B Annex to Chapter 4 B-1 Internet protocols, architecture and QoS 190 190 IP/ TCP/UDP 190 RTP 192 Resource reSerVation Protocol 193 IntServ 194 DiffServ 196 ATM and AAL 198 Multiprotocol over ATM 204 SDH and OC 204 MPLS 205 Future architectures 207 B-2 Technologies deployed by ISPs in Europe 210 B-3 Interoperability of circuit-switched and packet-switched networks in "Next Generation Networks” 211 About H.323 212 About Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) 214 H.323/SIP Interworking 216 B-4 ENUM 217 B-5 Adoption of new Internet architectures 219 C Annex to Chapter 6 220 C-1 Important Internet traffic exchange points and players 220 C-2 Peering guidelines of Internet backbone providers 238 D Annex for Chapter 8 D-1 Modelling the strategic interests of core ISPs in the presence of network effects 250 250 VIII Final Report for the European Commission List of Annexed Figures Figure A-1: Hierarchical structure of the domain name system 179 Figure A-2: Address formats of Class A, B, C addresses 180 Figure A-3: Recursive division of address space using VSLM 183 Figure A-4: Possibility of route aggregation and reduction of routing table size by using VLSM 186 Figure A-5: CIDR and Internet routing tables 188 Figure A-6: The effect of a change of an ISP on routing announcements in a CIDR environment 189 Figure B-1: OSI and Internet protocol stack 190 Figure B-2: Protocol-architecture enabling multi-service networking with IP 191 Figure B-3: Integrated services capable router 195 Figure B-4: Differentiated services field in the IP packet header 197 Figure B-5: Fully-meshed IP routers – the n problem 200 Figure B-6: Seven layer by three planes OSI model 207 Figure B-7: Types of layered architectures 207 Figure B-8: Technologies for QoS and backbone technologies used by ISPs 2 in Europe 210 Figure B-9: H.323 network architecture 213 Figure B-10: H.323 protocol layers 214 Figure D-1: Range of possible outcomes of a global degradation strategy 252 Figure D-2: Profitable regions of targeted degradation strategy 254 List of Annexed Tables Table B-1: QoS and ATM Forum service categories 202 Table B-2: Suitability of ATM Forum service categories to applications 203 Table B-3: Factors that can degrade an ATM network's QoS 203 Table B-4: SIP interworking with ITU-T protocols 216 Table C-1: The most important public Internet exchange points in North-America 2001 Table C-2: 220 The most important public Internet exchange points in North-America 2000 222 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Table C-3: Extended list of Internet Exchange Points in the USA and Canada (ordered along number of ISPs connected) Table C-4: IX 224 Most important IXPs in Europe (ordered according to number of ISPs connected) [as of May 2001] 231 Table C-5: Overview of peering guidelines – Broadwing Communications 238 Table C-6: Overview of peering guidelines – Cable&Wireless 240 Table C-7: Overview of peering guidelines – Electric Lightwave 241 Table C-8: Overview of peering policy – France Télécom 243 Table C-9: Overview of peering guidelines - Genuity 245 Table C-10: Overview of peering guidelines – Level 3 246 Table D-1: Interconnection strategies and network tipping 253 Table D-2: Feasible upper bounds for c 255 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 1 1 Introduction and Aims There appears to be widespread acceptance in the Internet industry that the Internet will in time largely replace circuit switch telecommunications networks and the services they supply. Implicit in this view is that the Internet is presently closer in its development to its beginning than its end, be that in terms of time scale, numbers of subscribers, or the scale of the impact it will have on our lives. Already there are enormous amounts of information and educational content on the Internet, goods and services are sold on the Internet, entertainment is provided over the Internet, people communicate with each over the Internet, and the Internet is also a means through which a great deal of work is co-ordinated in our economy. This study provides data, descriptions and analysis of commercial traffic exchange as it concerns Internet backbone service providers (also known as IBPs {Internet backbone providers}, or core ISPs).1 As such the study mainly looks back into the core of the Internet and only addresses what is happening between end-users and their ISPs to the extent that this provides valuable insights for traffic exchange at the core.2 The main subject areas included in the study are: • A basic description of the technical and economic features of the Internet, including those concerning routing, addressing, quality of service (QoS) and congestion; • The arrangements that exist, are developing or look likely to emerge, for commercial traffic exchange in the Internet, and • An analysis of the risk or fact of market failure; mainly externalities and market power, where each has the potential to give rise to the other, and where market 1 During the course of the project we agreed with the Commission to changed the wording of the title of the study by replacing the word ‘backbone’ by ‘traffic exchange’ with a particular focus on commercial traffic exchange, by which we mean traffic exchange involving transit providers. The reason this occurred is that there were difficulties in defining ‘the backbone’, and that some issues that are important for this study have their causes downstream from what could be called the Internet backbone. However, we still sometimes use the terms “backbone” and IBP (Internet backbone provider) in the study. 2 Arguably, the first time this aspect of the Internet attracted a great deal of interest from the authorities was in 1998 when the European Union and US authorities intervened over the proposed merger between MCI and WorldCom. Similar issues emerged again in 2000 over the proposed merger between WorldCom and Sprint. One of the main things the competition law authorities had to do at those times was to find a proper market definition, and to understand how competition between IBPs worked. Otherwise stated, what was needed was for the Merger authorities to come to an understanding of the industry’s structure and whether market power was or might become a problem as a result of the Merger, and how any identified problems might occur. In the present study it is, however, not intended to analyse relevant markets and related market power [0]issues, as would be undertaken by a competition law authority. We have addressed some of these issues in our study, "Market definitions and regulatory obligations in communications markets”. See Squire, Sanders & Dempsey and WIK (2002). 2 Final Report failure occurs, whether or not the issues are such that the Commission might rightly get more closely involved.3 The study looks at the issues from several perspectives. First, with regard to technical issues the main focus is on technologies that govern the way the Internet works. Understanding these issues helps in coming to an understanding of the way ISPs relate to each other, including strategies that leading players may employ to shape the evolution of the market, and possibly, to distort competition or impede its development. Second, we are interested in the institutional and contractual side of traffic exchange arrangements. Of particular interest are the peculiarities of the commercial relationships that exist between ISPs that may be in an up and downstream relationship to each other, but can also be in competition with each other. Third, there is a focus on economics and economic incentives. Issues here include: network effects, industry structural factors, and strategies of the markets players as they affect traffic exchange on the Internet. Of these, network effects are most important. For example, are the largest players able to manipulate interconnection in a way that increases their market power? Additionally, the study presents empirical evidence about the exchange of Internet traffic. Data presented includes, for example, the identity of the main players providing traffic exchange on the Internet, where they are exchanging traffic, and information about the growth of Internet traffic. There are three categories of market failure that we look for: (i) market power; (ii) externalities, and (iii) existing regulations. (i) and (ii) are dealt with in detail in the report. (iii) makes up a smaller section of the study as Internet backbones are not regulated directly. Nevertheless, regulations do surround the Internet, even if they are not written specifically for it. Given that the Internet is converging with the regulated industries that surround it (e.g. traditional telecoms and broadcasting), there are predictable regulatory problem areas looking forward, and we outline the basis of these. Our approach with each category of market failure is to look at the issues that would appear to be of particular interest to public policy makers and their advisers, with a view to coming to a conclusion as to whether the authorities should be seriously concerned that some form of market failure may be present or may occur in the near future.4 There are several other areas of policy interest not addressed by this study, including: decency, confidentiality, security, and not least, universal service issues and the rapid 3 Thus, the present study takes on a broader perspective than would be adopted by merger authorities in that we analyse the industry with a view to identifying whether there is presently, or is likely to develop in the near future, significant market failure. 4 There are a number of excellent papers that provide an overview of some of the issues we address in this study. Two that come to mind are Cawley (1997) and OECD (1999). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 3 uptake of broadband access by households and SMEs.5 These topics are of direct concern to consumers. None of these issues will feature to a significant degree in this study, i.e. our study is not concerned per se with end-users and ISPs that serve them. The Internet is a complex and rapidly evolving industry, and we suspect it is beyond the skills and knowledge of any organisation or individual to predict its future in any detail. Thus, while we look at present and future technology that may affect competition and the relationships between Internet firms that make up the Internet backbone, there is always the risk that future developments could detract from the relevance of our discussion. The report is divided into two parts: Part I "Internet systems and data" is largely descriptive. It describes the types of players, provides a description of internet addressing and numbering systems, and includes a discussion of internet technology. More specifically, Chapter 2 gives an overview of general features of the Internet focusing on applications and services that are generating traffic on the Internet, the way traffic is exchanged and a basic characterisation of the types of ISPs that provide services. Chapter 3 deals with the technical background to traffic exchange, in particular, addressing, routing and "Autonomous Systems". Chapter 4 discusses Quality of Service (QoS) issues. We look at the technical features of QoS, why QoS is important for real-time services, as well as the range of QoS problems that are holding back the Next Generation Internet (NGI).6 Chapter 5 is devoted to the features of the two categories of interconnection, namely peering and transit, as well as services that function as partial substitutes to these two interconnection categories. In addition we explain the loose hierarchy of ISP interconnection that make up the Internet. Chapter 6 is concerned with empirical evidence concerning traffic exchange arrangements in the Internet. The main topics dealt with are: characteristics of Internet exchange points; the main Internet backbone providers; information about Internet growth; performance and traffic; evidence on peering policies, and some remarks on the role of capacity exchanges. Part II focuses on areas where there is some unease as to the industry's ability to resolve problem areas in the public interest, and which are related in some significant way to commercial traffic exchange. This Part is written with those authorities in mind who are concerned with (tele)communications competition policy and regulation. The approach is to provide an analysis of the issues with a view to determining whether the authorities ‘interest’ may in practice translate into a genuine public policy concern, either now or potentially in the short to medium term; i.e. whether the authorities ought to consider taking on a roll alongside the Internet community, be that role relatively peripheral, such as a mediating roll where there are a large number of diverse interests 5 We discuss these in WIK (2000). 6 We define the Next Generation Internet as a network of networks integrating a large number of services and competing in markets for telephony and real-time broadcast and interactive data and video, in addition to those services traditionally provided by ISPs. 4 Final Report involved, or in providing for some sort of regulatory rule(s) to correct an identified market failure. Issues tackled in Part II are: network effects competition and market power; problems that are delaying the next generation Internet, including QoS issues and, Internet scaling problems and how they are being addressed. Specifically, Chapter 7 introduces the economic ideas relevant to public policy analysis of the Internet. We discuss relevant types of market failure, and the importance of network effects. Chapter 8 is where we discuss demand management, concerns involving addressing, and strategic competition issues involving ISPs. The analysis is aimed at uncovering evidence of any significant market failure, including externalities and competition distortions, and includes a brief discussion of potential future regulatory problem areas involving converging industries. Due to the complexity of the subject matter we have included a lot of technical, explanatory and background material in the annexes for easy reference. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 5 Part I – Internet systems and data 2 General features of the Internet This chapter provides conceptual descriptions of pertinent features of the Internet and background information necessary to analyse how the various players relate to each other commercially and technically. This section is devoted to aspects of Internet and IP services both from an engineering and an economic perspective. It aims at describing the exchange of traffic on the Internet. 2.1 Applications and services generating traffic on the Internet In the following we briefly describe the varying kinds of services and applications that are provided over the public Internet. Example 1 focuses on sending and receiving e-mails. This mode of communication consists of conveying written messages and attachments, such as a Word file or a PowerPoint presentation, between a sender and a receiver. To enable this to occur the receiver’s address must be known by the sender (or his PC {host}), however, it is not necessary that he knows the location of the receiver. Example 2 deals with the case where you are interested in an annual report of a company quoted on the New York Stock Exchange. Downloading such a file is in principle an easy task if you contact the web site of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and use their search engine "EDGAR". Assume for the purposes of our 3rd example that you would like to perform an electronic banking transaction via your bank account. Provided you are an authorized user of this type of communication this requires you to contact the web site of your bank, you can do this by identifying yourself and giving the system transaction specific information. Usually this is done via a menu based set of instructions. In example 4 suppose you would like to offer to sell or buy something in an (electronic) auction. Provided you have fulfilled the notification conditions with an auctioneer which typically includes giving the auctioneer your credit card number, you can participate in an auction by simply contacting the web site of the auctioneer, from where you are guided further by a menu that assists you in reaching the desired electronic bidding room. 6 Final Report Example 5 considers the case where music or video content is offering for downloading. There are several different models by which this can be organized.7 One is peer-to-peer file sharing. Exchanging music or video content under this model rests requires membership of a community which is organised on a specific electronic platform. Members need appropriate terminal equipment and specific software which usually can be downloaded from the operator of the platform. Once the software is installed you call the web site of the operator, make use of a search engine, select the desired item from a list of available items and downloading the content can begin. In a peer-to-peer model the content is not stored centrally, rather, a file is downloaded directly from the computer of another member. Thus, the operator of the platform mainly acts as an information broker. In example 6 we would like to mention the case of streaming media, i.e. a specific mode of sending and receiving video and audio content. The end-user needs specific terminal equipment (e.g. a sound card and/or a graphic card, and loudspeakers). A crucial element of the streaming model is a specific streaming software (player software). The end-user can download this software from the Internet. The software is free for the customer and offered by firms like Microsoft and Real Networks. The video and audio content provider also uses this software to encode the content and pays a fee to the software developer. Provided the end-user has obtained the appropriate software all he has to do is to contact the web site of the content provider and to activate the software, resulting in a stream of datagrams pacing from the server on which the content is stored to the end-user. There are two streaming technology alternatives. If bandwidth is low content is usually stored in a buffer on the local computer or device before the user can make use of it. If bandwidth is not a limiting factor the data packets may reach the enduser ‘immediately’ without use of a buffer. It is obvious that streaming resembles a oneto-one communication mode. Another way of getting video and/or audio content to endusers is through multicast. Multicasting is a one-to-many communication mode (broadcasting model). Multicasting operates by requiring a multicast server to keep membership lists of multicast clients that have joined a multicast group. There are differences between real-time and non real-time services as regards streaming media and multicasting. In the case of a real-time such as would be used for a live music concert, the server capacity normally has to be much higher than for non real-time, in order to meet demand. Example 7 relates to a technology that has been developed since the mid 1990’s which enables users to make telephone calls over the public Internet. Three different modes of communication can be distinguished with respect to early Internet telephony depending on the terminal devices that are involved: PC-to-PC, PC-to-Phone or Phone-to-PC, and Phone-to-Phone where Phone means a traditional PSTN or ISDN terminal device.8 If a 7 Video and music file sharing involves complex copyright issues. We do not address these issues in this study. 8 A detailed description of the different modes of Internet telephony and an analysis of the technical arrangements and the strategies of the players involved can be found in Kulenkampff (2000). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 7 PC is involved in Internet telephony specific terminal equipment (software and hardware) is necessary. PC-to-PC Internet telephony is only possible if both communications partners are online. For each type of Internet telephony where a phone is involved, a physical and logical connection is required which requires interconnection between the PSTN and the Internet. There are several network devices necessary for this interconnection as well as contractual arrangements between network operators in order to establish the connection and to facilitate billing. Usually, Internet telephony in which a phone is involved is not provided by the PSTN (fixed link telephony) carrier of which the end-user is a customer, rather, it is provided by specific companies acting as intermediaries. Since the late 1990’s several options have been under development with the purpose of establishing a simpler protocol for establishing and the tearing down telephone calls over IP networks. At the same time terminal devices have been developed which look like a traditional telephone receiver but are in fact IP-based devices.9 There are many more examples of Internet services and applications purchased by end users. Moreover, not only private end-users originate traffic on the Internet. There are many applications originated by business customers (and their employees) like remote maintenance, remote access for home workers, telelearning, procurement via ebusiness platforms etc.10 One can also view these services from a supply side perspective; organisations of very different nature possess content or enable the production of content.11 To make this content available to the outside world they need access to the Internet. On the one hand the applications mentioned so far have very different characteristics, especially with respect to the following: • the logic of the scheme which identifies names and addresses; • technical parameters necessary to enable an appropriate QoS. An important feature of Internet based communication is whether it is time-critical or not. Internet telephony is an example of a time critical application, whereas e-mail is not timecritical; • whether the communication partners are online or not, and • bandwidth requirements, where, for example, bandwidth requirements differ enormously between streaming video, and a short e-mail message. 9 The protocol is known as Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) and is backed by the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF). For a comprehensive treatment of the SIP protocol and SIP-based networks the reader is referred to Sinnreich and Johnston (2001). Basic characteristics of SIP can also be found in Annex B. 10 Often these applications are facilitated with the help of private IP-based networks, i.e. infrastructure which is logically separate from the public Internet. 11 "Content" should be understood here in a very broad sense and denotes something which can be consumed electronically and which is valuable to individuals or companies. 8 Final Report On the other hand the varying kinds of services and applications mentioned above are all generating IP-based traffic. For communication to proceed between the millions of IP-devices via the IP protocol involves a more or less complex chain of transactions between end users, networks, operators and content suppliers all over the world.12 In addition, there are many different payment flows between the entities involved in Internet communication. The stylised facts of these relationships are presented in the next figure. Figure 2-1: Value flows and payment flows of Internet based communication Value Flow End-user Subscriber line and call charges Local infrastructure Payment Flow Services existing independently of the Internet Subscriptions Lease charges Internet Access Transit Services Advertising Advertising/ hosting fees Transit fees Content Delivery/ Web-hosting Direct content order / Micro payments Content/ Products Source: Cable and Wireless (2001, modified) 12 Often the IP protocol is mentioned together with the TCP (Transmission Control Protocol). We will see later that IP is located on layer 3 of the OSI protocol scheme whereas TCP is located on the next higher layer. TCP, as its name suggest, is controlling the stream of packets initiated by the IP protocol. However, TCP is not the only protocol which is used for applications running over IP. For more details see Annex B. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 2.2 9 How traffic is exchanged A customer wanting access to the public Internet needs access to an Internet Service Provider (ISP). Technically, Internet access occurs at a point of presence where modems and routers accept IP-based traffic initiated by end-user to be delivered to the public Internet, and where traffic from the public Internet is forwarded to end-users. There are several alternatives used in order to hook up an end-user to the network of the ISP. Large companies are usually connected to the ISP’s point of presence through direct access links on the basis of a permanent ISDN connection, leased lines with high capacity, Frame Relay or ATM. Small companies and private users, however, typically connect to an ISP through low capacity leased lines or dial-up connections over analogue, ISDN, DSL, mobile or cable access networks.13 Figure 2-2 illustrates the arrangements necessary for access to the Internet for a private user.14 The traffic generated by the end user generally does not terminate on the network of his ISP, rather, it is destined for a host belonging to the network of another ISP. The traffic therefore has to be forwarded in order to reach its termination point via devices called routers, and this usually occurs over complex network infrastructures.15 We have seen in the preceding section that Internet communication often involves access to content. This content has to be stored and it has to be made available on the Internet by server hosting and housing.16 The housing location can be the point of 13 The technologies we refer to here that are involved in transporting IP traffic and involve different physical and data layers. For more details see Appendix B. We do not discuss access to the Internet in any detail as the subject of this study is commercial traffic exchange. A few remarks will suffice. Using the traditional PSTN or ISDN network means that access to the Internet is normally treated like a telephone call. This holds true at least for the local access part of the network, i.e. the physical infrastructure between the terminal device(s) at the customer premises and the Main Distribution Frame, MDF). Between the MDF and the PoP of the ISP, Internet traffic is usually multiplexed and transported via ATM based networks. As regards xDSL solutions there are several alternatives which can be distinguished by bandwidth and whether or not bandwidth is identical for upstream and downstream traffic. xDSL solutions also use the copper infrastructure of the local loop, however, Internet traffic and regular PSTN traffic is separated "as early as possible”, i.e. at the end-user’s premises by so-called splitters. If Internet access is provided by a cable-modem solution it is no longer the PSTN copper network which is used, rather, the cable-TV networks are normally made up of a high proportion of fibre. Wireless Local Loop (WLL) is a non-wireline technology for which frequency spectrum is used. Further details on access technologies can be found in Distelkamp (1999); Höckels (2001); WIK (2000). 14 The network access server depicted in Figure 2.2 contains the corresponding modem pool at the access network site, and at the IP network site, the first edge router. 15 These network infrastructures comprise transmission links connecting the network nodes of the ISP and the operation of transmission links connecting the ISP‘s network to networks of other ISPs. In addition Internet exchange points and data centres will normally also be operated. 16 Housing means the accommodation of servers. Security features (e.g. admission control, fire alarm etc.) are important in the provision of housing space. 10 Final Report presence, the network operation centre of an ISP’s network, or a special data centre operated by the ISP or a specialised supplier (e.g. a web farm).17 Figure 2-2: Basic features of a private end-user’s access to the content and services on the Internet Modem (analogous / DSL) Client-PC ISDN-Card Network Access Server Router Access Network ISP-Network PTT GSM Cable ISP-Services RadiusServer MailServer WebServer DNSServer Cache Source: WIK-Consult Thus, in principle one can highlight the Internet as consisting of the following building blocks: • IP devices like a PC, a workstation or a server; • Several of these devices connected with one another by a Local Area Network (LAN); • Several LANs connected to the network of a single regionally focused ISP within a specific country (e.g. a local ISP); • Several networks of regionally focused ISPs connected to a network of a large national ISP; 17 Of course the above value chain is highly aggregated. Further disaggregation could e.g. differentiate between the ownership and usage of network infrastructure, content and services. Furthermore, looking at the customer and his or her demand for services billing and customer care could be added in the value chain. For the purpose of this study these expansions are, however, not necessary. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 11 • Several networks of large national ISPs connected to the network of an international ISP which has, however, still a regional focus; • Several networks of international ISPs with a regional focus connected to the network of an international ISP with a multi-regional or even worldwide focus, and • The interconnection between the networks of the international ISPs with a multiregional or even worldwide focus. These networks have several differences with respect to architecture, equipment vendors, number of customers, traffic patterns, transmission capacity, quality of service standards etc. However, all of these networks taken together (which are usually called the Internet), are able to communicate with each other by virtue of the IP protocol, i.e. by a packet based communication platform.18 Yet, any specific network in this system of networks is not connected directly to all the other networks. Rather, the Internet is arranged in a loosely hierarchical system where each ISP is only directly connected to one or a few other ISPs.19 The basic structure can be seen from Figure 2-3. Figure 2-3 shows the types of ISP mentioned above, with the relationship between them described as follows. • At the bottom there are users in different countries. The bulk of the users are connected to a local ISP (indicated in country A as a line between the end-user and local ISP A1 and A2). However, an end-user need not necessarily be connected to a local ISP, rather, if the user has a lot of traffic it might be directly connected to an intra-national backbone provider (A4) or even an international backbone provider (C1). • In many cases local ISPs are connected to one or more intra-national backbone providers (like ISP A2 to A3 and A4). However, it can also occur that a local ISP (A1) has a connection both to an intra-national backbone provider (A3) and a regionally focused international backbone provider (C1). Moreover, a local ISP (A1) may in some particular cases have a direct link to another local ISP (A2). • Intra-national backbone providers are usually linked directly (as occurs between A3 and A4). Moreover, they are linked to regionally focused international backbone providers (like A3 to C1 and A4 to C2). At least some intra-national backbone 18 Viewed from the perspective of the OSI scheme of data communication IP is a platform for services and applications. On the other hand IP communication requires supporting physical and data layer technologies. See for more details Annex B. 19 There are different modes of connection which differ especially with respect to prices and the location where the interconnection take place. 12 Final Report providers (like A3) have a direct link to a multi-regional international backbone provider (D1). • As the name indicates, international backbone providers (like C1, C2 and D1) are connected to (intra-national) ISPs from different countries. An international backbone provider with a regional focus (like C1) will in all likelihood be connected to more than one international backbone provider with a regional focus (like C2). Moreover, in most cases, international backbone providers with a regional focus have at least one direct connection with an international backbone provider with a multi-regional or worldwide focus (like C1 with D1 and D2). • Eventually, the international backbone providers with a multi-regional or worldwide focus (like D1,...,D4) each have direct links with one another. Figure 2-3: Hierarchical view of the Internet (I) D4 D3 Inter-National Backbone Providers (multi-regional or world-wide) D1 C1 A3 D2 ... Inter-National Backbone Providers (with regional focus) C2 A4 ... A1 A2 ... ... ... ... ... Country A Country B Country C Intra-National Backbone Provider Local ISPs End-user Source: WIK-Consult The figure makes clear that traffic originated in one country and destined for the same country does not necessarily remain entirely domestic traffic. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 13 Private and business end-users as well as content providers20 want the Internet to provide them with global reach. However, the hierarchy of ISPs makes it obvious that no single ISP alone can provide its customers with access to worldwide addresses, content and services. Rather, irrespective of its size or coverage, each ISP needs the support of other ISPs in order to get universal access to customers and content. This situation is depicted in the following Figure. Figure 2-4: Interrelationship of different types of ISPs to enable Internet communication International Backbone ISPs National ISPs Local ISPs HEWLETT PACKARD Router Router Modem Content Provider End-User Source: based on WorldCom (2001) 2.3 Types of ISPs The development of the public Internet has brought about a rich diversity of types of ISPs. Unfortunately, there is no unique and generally accepted definition of what constitutes an ISP. In the preceding section we identified local ISPs, intra-national backbone providers, international backbone providers with a regional focus and the international backbone providers with multi-regional or worldwide activities in the IP- 20 A content provider focuses on a specific type of Internet service such as WWW servers, portal sites, search engines, news servers or FTP archives. A content provider usually buys network services from ISPs. 14 Final Report business. At a functional level this classification mirrors that applicable to Internet traffic exchange.21 Minoli and Schmidt (1999, p. 38) subdivide the ISP business into three major areas. The first category encompasses access providers, e.g. ISPs focused on providing services to dial-up users and those with leased line access to their ISP. The second category comprises "ISPs that provide transit or backbone type connectivity." The third category consists of ISPs providing value-added services such as managed web servers and/or firewalls. Taking this demarcation, the present study focuses on category 2. However, this classification is still too abstract to show exactly the study’s focus. From the perspective of a private end-user, the main ISP types are: local, intra-national backbone providers, online services providers and virtual ISPs.22 An online service provider provides a service which enables a closed user group to download information from a remote electronic storage platform or to store information on this platform, and to communicate with other users. Usually, an online service provider makes the service portfolio available to the end-user through a portal. According to subscriber numbers the biggest ISP in the world is AOL/TimeWarner, which is positioned as an online service provider. Also, many telecommunications incumbents in Europe have organised their private end-user Internet businesses as an online service providers.23 Examples are Deutsche Telekom with T-Online, and France Télécom with Wanadoo. A Virtual ISP is an ISP which concentrates on the end-user contact, but has no IP network whatsoever. An example is Shell in Germany which only distributes the access software CD at their petrol stations. Taking a broader perspective one could also define universities and large companies as ISPs. This can be the case because these entities also provide access to the Internet, even if this access is usually limited to closed user groups (e.g. students, employees). Thus, ISPs are different in many respects. One difference is ISP size (in terms of turnover or employees or network reach). A local ISP typically operates a rather limited number of points of presence in a region or several adjacent regions in a country. The points of presence are connected through transmission links which are usually leased from a fixed wire operator. This ISP network has to be connected to a national or international ISP (or several of them) in order to get up-stream connectivity to the worldwide Internet as outlined in the preceding section. An example for a medium sized ISP is an intra-national backbone provider like Mediaways in Germany. The international backbone providers are large ISPs. 21 Boardwatch (2000, p.20) defines another part of the Internet called ”customer and business market". In the article it is said that each time a small office leases a line from its office to a point of presence of an ISP the Internet is extended. 22 For more detail see Elixmann and Metzler (2001). 23 Usually, these activities are performed by separate entities. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 15 A second feature to distinguish ISPs is infrastructure, more precisely, the issue of whether they operate infrastructure or not. Online service providers usually do not operate their own networks. They offer services to end-users by purchasing the dial-in user platform, national transmission services and up-stream connectivity as input services from national or international network providers.24 Moreover, by definition a virtual ISP is without infrastructure. Intra-national and international backbone providers, however, operate own infrastructure. In this context operation of transmission facilities does not necessarily mean that a carrier also owns this infrastructure. Often large parts of intra-national and international ISP’s networks are based on leased lines. Moreover, pan-European and North-American ISPs which have a fibre infrastructure often swap capacity in order to expand the reach of their networks.25 A third feature that differentiates types of ISP is whether they are focused on ISP and IP business or whether their business is integrated with (traditional fixed-link and/or cellular mobile) telecommunication activities. Between the 1980’s and mid 1990’s the largest long distance telecommunications incumbents in North America (at that time AT&T, MCI, Sprint) were also important ISPs. Since this time many new players have appeared who provide fibre infrastructure provider, with several focussed on providing services for big companies and carriers, i.e. as a wholesaler.26 Since the liberalisation of the telecommunications markets in Europe many intranational and international ISPs have entered the market. This holds true both nationally (in Germany e.g. Mediaways, in the UK e.g. FreeServe) and internationally. Indeed, at the end of the 1990’s there were more than 20 pan-European infrastructure providers most of which were also ISPs.27 Yet, in Europe the telecommunications incumbents are also important ISPs, at least on a national level. However, for important accounts, ISP services are normally provided by the parent company or a separate subsidiary.28,29 As the present study focuses on commercial traffic exchange on the Internet the focus is on ISPs that operate infrastructure. Furthermore, we concentrate on "backbone" issues and, thus, primarily on large ISP and other ISPs that obtain connectivity from them. However, there is no accepted definition of what constitutes the Internet backbone. Rather, there is a part of each firm’s network which is its backbone. This means that a-priori both national and international ISPs are operating a backbone. 24 AOL/Time Warner in Germany primarily uses the services of Mediaways. T-Online uses the Internet platform "T-Interconect" of its parent company Deutsche Telekom. 25 See Elixmann (2001) for an empirical examination of market characteristics and player strategies in the market for fibre transmission capacity in Europe and North America. A swap of capacity is the exchange of existing (usually lit) transmission capacity between two companies. 26 Boardwatch publishes a list of the most important North American ISPs at least once a year as well as a list of all ISPs. 27 See Elixmann (2001) and the literature cited therein. Infrastructure providers who are not ISPs concentrate on selling dark or lit fibre. 28 In Germany T-Systems provides services to Deutsche Telekom’s key accounts whereas another entity provides the technical Internet platform and the transmission services. 29 In the latter case, accounting separation requirements mean that all such transactions should be transparently priced. 16 Final Report However, the underlying network infrastructure and its role within the global Internet for supplying transmission services, as well as access to content and services, is different. In the present study we assume a pragmatic demarcation of the Internet backbone. Noting that the focus is on "backbone services" it is clear that it is not on access services. Thus, the backbone network of an ISP only comprises facilities beyond its edge routers, these being devices where Internet traffic of the ISP’s customers is collected and forwarded to those routers which open "the window to the world". The latter routers are known as core routers. Thus, we identify the backbone with certain network facilities, i.e. the transmission links, routing and switching equipment that is vital for connecting core routers and enabling communication between them. In addition, in our empirical investigation we concentrate on operators of these facilities with cross-border activities. 2.4 Roots of the Internet The history of the Internet30 dates back to the late 1960s with the Advanced Research Project Agency’s ARPAnet built to connect the U.S. Department of Defence, other U.S. governmental agencies, universities and research organisations. In 1985 the National Science Foundation (NSF) initiated the establishment of a 56 kbps network, originally linking 5 national computer centres but offering access to any of the regional university computer centres that could physically reach the network (NSFnet) . Since 1987 the capacity of this network was intermittently increased (from 56 Kbps to T1 (1,544 Mbps) and T3 (45 Mbps)), and by 1990 the Internet had grown to consist of more than 3,500 sub-networks. Since this time, the operation of the network was transferred to a joint venture of IBM, MCI, the State of Michigan and the Merit Computing Centre of the University of Michigan, at Ann Arbor. Around 1993 fundamental changes occurred. First, private commercial backbone operators set up a "Commercial Internet Exchange (CIX)" in Santa Clara, California. Second, the NSF solicited bids for the establishment of "Network Access Points (NAPs)" announcing that it was getting out of the Internet backbone business. Similarly to the CIX concept, NAPs were deemed to be sites where private commercial backbone operators could interconnect and exchange traffic with all other service providers. In February 1994, four NAPs were built: San Francisco, operated by PacBell; Chicago, operated by Bellcore and Ameritech; New York (actually Pennsauken (NJ)), operated by SprintLink and MAE East (MAE = Metropolitan Area Ethernet or Exchange) in Washington, D.C. operated by Metropolitan Fibre Systems (MFS, today part of WorldCom). 30 The following overview draws heavily on Boardwatch Magazine (2000). See section 6.1.2 for empirical evidence of the situation today. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 17 Although not made mandatory by the NSF, the contractual form of the co-operation at these exchanges was "peering", i.e. the agreement to accept the traffic of all peers in exchange for having them accept your traffic without the inclusion of any monetary payments.31 MFS in particular subsequently set up four more NAPs in San Jose (MAE West), Los Angeles (MAE LA), Chicago (MAE Chicago) and another one in Washington, DC (MAE East+). Finally, two Federal Internet Exchange Points (FIX-East and FIX-West) were built largely to interconnect the NASA net and some other federal government networks. Thus, at the end of the Millennium there were 11 major public interconnection points in the U.S. (the four official NAPs, three historical NAPs (CIX, FIX-East, FIX-West) and four de-facto NAPs (the MAEs). Most of the national backbone operators in the U.S. were and remain connected to all four official NAPs as well as to most of the MAEs. With the extremely rapidly growth in Internet traffic NAPs were by all accounts frequent points of congestion. In addition to NAPs a multitude of private exchanges were opened up where backbone operators cross-connect with other backbones. In Europe, college and research institutions set up their own Local Area Networks (LANs) in the 1970s. Public peering took place through co-operation with the NSF and in several research centres including London, Paris and Darmstadt (Germany). Today, most countries in the world has at least one major NAP, where domestic and international ISPs and Internet backbone providers (IBPs) can interconnect. Many countries, particularly in Western Europe, host several major NAPs. 31 We discuss peering and transit in detail in Chapter 5. 18 3 Final Report Technical background to traffic exchange: Addressing, routing and "Autonomous Systems"32 We have seen in the preceding section that the Internet comprises a vast number of IP networks each of them usually consisting of many communicating devices like, for example PC’s, workstations, and servers. In the following we speak of hosts to denote these communication devices. This Chapter focuses on the technical features that support traffic exchange, i.e. it describes how traffic is exchanged. Viewed from an end-user perspective hosts often have "names", however, in order to enable hosts to communicate with one another they need "addresses". The forwarding of packets on the Internet rests on routers and routing protocols. "Autonomous Systems" is a scheme used to segregate the Internet into subsections. Addressing and routing, especially routing between "Autonomous Systems", are important on a "micro-level", i.e. for single ISPs. This holds true with respect to the way ISPs design their access and backbone networks and also with respect to traffic exchange with other parts of the Internet. At a "macro-level" IP-addresses are a finite resource, with address exhaustion a possibility. Technical developments are possible, however, that would make available addresses last longer. Moreover, the growth of the Internet represented by larger and larger so called "routing tables" and more and more "Autonomous Systems" affects the necessary capacity of routers and the speed with which they perform their tasks. Thus, the evolution of the Internet and its quality of service depends on these basic technical principles. This section aims to illuminate the concepts mentioned so far, and which are vital for traffic exchange on the Internet. 3.1 Internet addressing 3.1.1 Names and the Domain Name System Names on the Internet have become more and more a matter of trademarks and branding. Broadly speaking a name is used primarily to identify a host whereas the IP address contains the way to get there. The link between the two concepts is provided by the Domain Name System (DNS). The DNS requires a specific syntax and rests on a distributed database encompassing a great number of servers world-wide. Annex A-1 contains more details as regards the DNS system. 32 In this Chapter we draw on Marcus (1999) and Semeria (1996). 19 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks In practice the system works as follows. Suppose someone wants to visit the web site of the German Regulatory Agency for Telecommunications and Posts, the name of which is www.regtp.de. The browser on the PC of this person issues a query to a local DNS server which for residential users and small businesses is usually provided by an ISP. In the case that this DNS server does not know the destination address related to the caller, a query is sent to the next server up the AS hierarchy, which returns the address of the server hosting the zone "de" to which the DNS server of the caller then resubmits its query. In case that the upper server does not know the DNS server corresponding to the destination address the query is directed to the next server up the AS hierarchy, this occurring until the appropriate DNS server is found. The server of the domain "de" gives the address of the server hosting "regtp.de" which provides the IP address for the site in question. 3.1.2 IPv4 addressing schemes Throughout this sub-section we focus on addressing schemes relating to the Internet Protocol, Version 4 (IPv4). When this IP protocol was standardised in 1981, the specification required each host attached to an IP-based network to be assigned a unique 32 bit Internet address.33 IP addresses are usually expressed in "dotted decimal notation", i.e. the 32-bit IP address is divided into 8-bit fields, each expressed as decimal number and separated by a dot. Figure 3.1 provides an example of the dotted decimal notation. Figure 3-1: Example of an IP address expressed in dotted decimal notation bit # 31 0 10 010001 145 . 00001010 . 00100010 . 00000011 10 34 3 145.10.34.3 Source: Semeria (1996) The initial addressing system rested on three classes of addresses denoted by A, B and C.34 Thus, historically addressing on the Internet has been conducted via a hierarchical 33 Some hosts, e.g. routers have interfaces to more than one network, i.e. they are dual homed or multihomed. Thus, a unique IP address has to be assigned for each network interface. 34 The reader can find more details on Class A,B,C addresses in Annex A-2. 20 Final Report scheme, which in principle offers the possibility of connecting more than 4 billion (i.e. 232) devices. In the original concept of the Internet each LAN was to be assigned a distinct network address. This was reasonable at the time in view of the four billion possible addresses, and when addresses where considered a virtually inexhaustible resource. Thus, it is not surprising that in the early days of the Internet the seemingly unlimited address space resulted in IP addresses being assigned to any organisation asking for one. However, inherently in a class scheme involving large blocks of addresses there is a great deal of inefficient use of addresses i.e. addressing space is assigned which remains largely unused. This is especially true for large and medium sized entities which were allocated a Class B address which will support more than 65,000 hosts. For most such entities a Class C address would be too small as it would only support 254 hosts. Thus, in the past organisations with anywhere between a several hundred and several thousands of hosts were normally assigned a Class B address. This resulted in a rapid depletion of Class B address space and also in the rapid growth in the size of Internet routing tables. Since the mid 1980’s there have been several new developments that have improved the efficiency of IP address allocation. Arguably the three main developments are as follows: • Subnetting with a fixed mask • Variable Length Subnet Masking (VLSM) • Classless Inter-Domain Routing (CIDR). The most important of these was CIDR which has lead to much more flexibility and efficient use of addressing. The concept of Classless Inter-Domain Routing (CIDR)35 was developed in 1993 to tackle the problems of future address exhaustion especially in regard to Class B address space, and the rapid increase in the global Internet’s routing table.36 The allocation scheme of CIDR creates the capability for address aggregation, i.e. the possibility to aggregate a contiguous block of addresses into a single routing table entry. We discuss these concepts in more detail in Annex A-2. Private IPv4 address allocation Hosts which need no access to the public Internet at all do not need an IP address visible on the Internet. For these hosts a private address allocation scheme can be applied. There is a small group of permanently assigned IP network prefixes that are reserved for these purposes, i.e. they are never supported or visible for exterior 35 As the name indicates CIDR’s focus is on routing, although there are also implications for addressing. We discuss the addressing issues in this section while routing implications are presented in section 3.2. 36 See also section 3.2 and section 6.3 of this report. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 21 routing.37 Thus, the same prefixes can be used contemporaneously by an unlimited number of organisations. It can also be the case that a host only needs limited access to the Internet, such as if it needs only access to e-mail or FTP and otherwise works "privately". In this case some kind of address translation from the private address space to IP addresses that are valid in the global Internet has to take place. There are two approaches used to accomplish this: • Network Address Translation (NAT) • Application Layer Gateways (ALG).38. If an organisation chooses to use private addressing it would typically create a DNS for internal users and another one for the rest of the world. Only for those services that the organisation wishes to announce to the public would the external DNS contain entries.39 Dynamic IPv4 address allocation If a private end-user is connecting to an ISP via a dial-up connection it will generally be the case that the ISP will not assign a permanent address to the user, rather, a session specific address that is unused at that moment will be assigned.40 There is thus no need for an ISP to have as many addresses as customers. Rather, it is the (expected) maximum number of customers connecting to the ISP simultaneously which yields the necessary address space, and this number is on average much lower than the number of customers. Organisations responsible for the assignment of addresses As delegated by ICANN, IP addresses are managed by three regional organisations, each distinguished by a different geographical focus:41 • The "American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN)", responsible for North and South America, Caribbean and Saharan Africa; • The "Réseaux IP Européennes Network Coordination Centre (RIPE NCC)" responsible for Europe, Middle-East, North of Africa42 and parts of Asia, and 37 See next section for more details on routing. 38 For more details on these approaches see Marcus (1999, p. 221 and p. 223). ALG firewalls allow an entire network to appear externally as a single Class C network. 39 See Marcus (1999, p. 233). 40 In a dial up connection firstly the PPP (Point to Point Protocol, RFC 1661) is established between the customer and the ISP. After that the DHCP protocol (Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol, Latest RFC 2131) temporarily assigns the customer an available IP address out of the ISP’s address space. 41 For more details on these organisations the reader is referred to the respective web sites, see http://www.icann.org/general/icann-org-chart_frame.htm 22 • Final Report The "Asia Pacific Network Information Centre (APNIC)", responsible for the rest of Asia and Pacific. 3.1.3 IPv6 addressing issues IP version 6 (IPv6) is a new version of the IP protocol and designed to be a successor to IPv4.43 Instead of the 32-bit address code of IPv4 the new version 6 has 128-bit long addresses, structured into eight 16-bit pieces. Marcus argues that there are three types of IPv6 addresses that are relevant for practical purposes:44 • Provider-assigned IPv6 addresses, • Link-local IPv6 addresses, and • IPv6 addresses embedding IPv4 addresses. The first type comprises those addresses which an ISP assigns to an organisation from its allocated address block. These addresses are globally unique. The second type comprises addresses which are to be used by organisations which do not currently connect to the public Internet but intend to do so. They are unique within the organisation to which they are relevant.45 The third type, IPv6 addresses embedding IPv4 addresses, reflect the fact that IPv4 addresses can be translated into equivalent IPv6 addresses. Actually, there are two types of embedded IPv4 addresses: • IPv4-compatible IPv6 addresses, and • IPv4-mapped IPv6 addresses. The first case is applied for nodes that utilise a technique for hosts and routers to tunnel46 IPv6 packets over IPv4 routing infrastructure. In this case the IPv6 nodes are assigned special IPv6 uni-cast addresses that carry an IPv4 address in the right-most 32-bits. The second case mirrors the situation where IPv4-only nodes are involved, i.e. A distinct organisation for the African region (AFRINIC) is about to be created. Subsequently we refer RFC 2373, July 1998 See Marcus (1999, p. 238). Link-local IPv6 addresses offer the possibility that the subnet address for the link to the organisation could serve as a prefix to the internal address scheme of the attached devices. 46 If a router is able to interpret the format of a protocol, traffic between networks can be switched or routed directly. If, however, the format of a protocol is not known and, thus, not supported by hardware/software capabilities, a packet will be silently discarded. To remedy this routers can be configured to treat all router hops between any two routers as a single hop. This technique which is used to pass packets through a subnetwork is known as “tunnelling”. See Minoli and Schmidt (1999, p. 316) and section 3.2.3. 42 43 44 45 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 23 nodes that do not support IPv6. These nodes are assigned IPv6 addresses where the IPv4 portion also appears in the right most 32-bits.47 Carpenter (2001) reports that according to one IPv6 implementation model each network running IPv6 would be given a 48-bit prefix, leaving 80 bits for "local" use. Such an arrangement would mean that theoretically there could be more than 35 trillion IPv6 networks. Thus, the number of addressable networks raises dramatically with IPv6 compared to IPv4. 3.2 Internet routing Packet-switched networks segment data into packets, each packet usually containing a few hundred bytes of data, which are sent across a network. The most important packet protocol is IP which is located on layer 3 (the network layer) of the OSI protocol stack.48 It has become the standard connectionless protocol for both LANs and WANs. The Internet is currently comprised of more than 100,000 TCP/IP networks. Traffic within and between these networks relies on the use of specific devices called routers, the equivalent of switches in traditional circuit switched telecommunications networks. Generally speaking, a router is located at the boundary point between two logical or physical subnetworks.49 Simply speaking, a router forwards IP datagrams, i.e. it moves an IP packet from an input transmission medium to an output transmission medium. Yet it is not the forwarding as such which is the most important purpose of a router, but the exchange of information with other routers concerning where to send a packet, i.e. the determination of an optimal route. Routers work on the basis of routing tables which are built by information obtained using so called routing protocols. 3.2.1 Routing protocols Routing protocols make decisions on the appropriate path to use to reach a target address. The determination of a path is accomplished through the use of algorithms. Although there are differences across the available algorithms their common goals are:50 • The determination of the optimal path to a destination and the collection of appropriate information used in making this calculation, such as the path length (hop count), latency, the available bandwidth, and the path QoS; 47 The only difference between the two are the 16 bits from no. 81 through to no. 96, which are encoded as "0000” in the first case and "FFFF” in the latter case. The first 80 bits in both cases are set to zero. 48 We discuss protocol stacks in Annex B and to a lesser extend in Chapter 4. 49 In practice a router is used for Internetworking between two (sub)networks that use the same network layer protocol (namely IP) but which have different data link layer protocols (i.e. on the layer below IP), see Minoli and Schmidt (1999, p.309). 50 See Minoli and Schmidt (1999, p. 314). 24 Final Report • Minimisation of network bandwidth necessary for routing advertisements as well as of router processing to calculate the optimal routes, and • Rapid convergence in deciding new optimal routes following a change in network topology, especially in the case that a router or a link fails. The values calculated by the algorithm to determine a path are stored in the routing tables. The entries of a routing table are based on local as well as remote information that is sent around the network.51 A router advertises52 routes53 to other routers and it learns new routes from other routers. Thus, routers signal their presence to the outside network and through their advertisements they signal to other routers destinations which can be reached through the router that is advertising. There are two categories of routing protocols which are used to create routing tables: Interior Gateway Protocols and Exterior Gateway Protocols. Interior Gateway Protocols Interior routing protocols suitable for use with the IP protocol include: • Routing Information Protocol (RIP-1, RIP-2), • Interior Gateway Routing Protocol (IGRP), • Open Shortest Path First (OSPF). RIP-1 was used when ARPANET was in charge of the Internet. This protocol allows for only one subnet mask to be used within each network number,54 i.e. it does not support VLSM or CIDR. This has been changed with the advent of RIP-2 in 1994 which supports the deployment of variable masks (VLSM).55 IGRP is a proprietary standard of Cisco.56 OSPF is a non-proprietary protocol which according to Marcus has significant advantages over both RIP and IGRP.57 It enables the deployment of VLSM, i.e. it conveys the extended network prefix length or mask value along with each route announcement. See Minoli and Schmidt (1999, p.313). We use the terms route announcement and route advertisement interchangeably. In essence a route is a path to a block of addresses. RIP-1 does not provide subnet mask information as part of its messages concerning the updating of routing tables, see Semeria (1996). 55 Marcus (1999, p. 245) argues that RIP-2 "is likely to continue to be used extensively for some time to come for simple networks that do not require the functions and ...complexity of a more full-featured routing protocol. (I)t will continue to be useful at the edge of large networks, even when the core requires a more complex and comprehensive routing protocol." 56 For more information the reader is referred to Marcus (1999, pp. 245) and the reference given there. 57 See Marcus (1999), p.246. 51 52 53 54 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 25 Exterior Gateway Protocols The most common exterior routing protocol used today is the Border Gateway Protocol Version 4 (BGP-4) which was published in 1995. A key characteristic of BGP is that it relies on a shortest path algorithm in terms of AS hops.58 Thus, for each destination AS, BGP determines one preferred AS path.59 BGP also supports CIDR route aggregation, i.e. it can accept routes from downstream ASes and aggregate those advertisements into a single supernetwork.60 BGP routers exchange information about the ASes they can reach and the metrics associated with those systems.61 In more detail, the information exchanged with another BGP-based router will involve newly advertised routes and routes that have been withdrawn. Advertising a route as being reachable mainly implies specifying the CIDR block and the list of ASes traversed between the current router and the original subnetwork (AS path list). 3.2.2 Static, dynamic and default routing Static routing requires a network manager to build and maintain the routing tables at each router, i.e. network routes are manually listed in the router. In case of a failure a router using static routing will not automatically update the routing table to enable traffic to be forwarded around the failure. In contrast, dynamic routing results in route tables being automatically update and for optimal paths to be recalculated on the basis of realtime network conditions including failures or congestion. Static and default routing are applied in specific cases where only limited routing is necessary and they tend to be applied in different circumstances.62 First, suppose an organisation is connected to only one ISP. Moreover, suppose the organisation uses addresses from the ISP’s address block and operates as part of the ISP’s AS. In this case the organisation does not need an exterior routing protocol for traffic to and from the ISP. Rather, for traffic not destined for a host within the organisation’s network, a default route is used to get to the ISP. For its part, the ISP would use static routing to get traffic to the organisation.63 58 It is obvious that the shortest number of AS hops might be quite different from the actual number of IP hops. 59 The shortest past algorithm is not the only decision made by a router configured with BGP. If, for example, there are two preferred routes (i.e. routes with the same number of hops), then the router also checks the time it takes to forward a packet to the target and the available bandwidth on the different connections. In addition, policy routing can be used to prioritise routes. 60 As regards route aggregation see Annex A-3. 61 See Minoli and Schmidt (1999, p. 356). 62 For more information refer to Marcus (1999, pp. 243). 63 Static routing procedures are based on fixed routing tables implemented in the routers. These tables assign an input IP subnet address directly to an output IP subnet address with their corresponding 26 Final Report Second, in many networks there are routers at the edge which only have a single connection to a core network router.64 In this case static routing can be used to route traffic from the core to the correct edge router. This requires the address plan to be configured in a specific way. In order to determine the route back default routing is, i.e. it is used to route traffic from the edge to the core. A default route is an instruction to the edge router to forward any traffic where the target address is not accepted on the edge router, to the nearest core router.65 As we have seen above there are internal and external routing procedures. Both routing procedures are related to one another. Usually external routing is dynamic,66 while internal routing may be dynamic or static. 3.2.3 IPv6 routing issues Options provided by IPv6 67 In addition to its vastly greater address space, IPv6 has several advantages over IPv4, the main ones being as follows: • The addressing capabilities are expanded. • The header format is changed allowing the flexible use of options, i.e. the mandatory header is simplified from 13 fields in IPv4 to only seven fields in IPv6 with the effect of reducing processing costs of packet handling and limiting the bandwidth cost of the header. • A new capability is added to enable the labelling of particular traffic flows,68 i.e. sequences of packets sent from a particular source to a particular destination, for which the source desires special handling by the intervening routers, such as nondefault quality of service or real-time service. 64 65 66 67 68 input/output ports. Changes and updates of the routing table of the routers are carried out externally, usually by a management service of the ISP. This type of routing is usually applied in border routers. Dynamic routing procedures take statistics of the state of the network and updates the routing table of the router according to these statistics. A typical example of dynamic routing is the OSPF protocol that is based on the state of the links of the network. Edge routers are usually located at those places where the traffic from end users is collected such as at the PoPs of an ISP. A core router, however, is usually located in the Network Operation Centre of an organisation and it provides the up-link to a transit partner or to a peering point or its own backbone. Core and edge routers are each configured according to their specific purpose, i.e. they differ with respect to the number of ports and other functional features. Commercially, this is equivalent to routing traffic to a larger ISP with which the smaller ISP has a contract for the provision of transit. We discuss transit in detail later in this Chapter and also in Chapter 5. BGP enables an ISP to statically specify certain routes, and to use dynamic routing, thus, making them dependent from the status of the network and operational changes in the Internet. We refer here to RFC 2460, December 1998. IPv6 has a 20-bit Flow Label field in the header. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 27 • ISPs that want to change their service provider can do so more easily and at lower cost when they are using IPv6 compared to if they were using IPv4; • IPv6 is able to identify and distinguish between different classes or priorities of IPv6 packets.69 IPv4 has this capability also, but has room for only four different types of service, and • There are enhanced security capabilities supporting authentication, data integrity, and (optional) data confidentiality. Tunnelling of IPv6 within IPv4 The specification of IPv6 allows IPv6 datagrams to be tunnelled within IPv4 datagrams. In this case the IPv6 datagram additionally gets an IPv4 header. This packet is then forwarded to the next hop according to the instructions contained in the IPv4 header. At the tunnel end point70 the process is reversed. Tunnels can be used router to router, router to host, host to router, or host to host.71 Tunnelling will be mainly applied to connect IPv6 islands inside an IPv4 network. In regard to several of the bulleted features above, IPv6’s advantage over IPv4 has recently narrowed due to technological developments. We discuss possible public policy issues regarding IPv4 address exhaustion and the adoption of IPv6 in Chapter 8. 3.3 Autonomous Systems An Autonomous System (AS) is a routing domain (i.e. a collection of routers) that is under the administrative control of a single organisation. An AS may comprise one single IP network or many. Otherwise stated, the routers belonging to an AS are under a common administration, they belong to a defined (set of) network(s) over which a common set of addressing and routing policies is implemented.72 The Internet consists of a great many ASes with each AS being unique. ASes are identified by numbers. AS numbers are assigned by the three Registries ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE. Within a single AS, interior routing protocols provide for routing to occur between the routers. Exterior routing protocols are used to handle traffic between different ASes. These protocols are therefore applied in particular to enable ISPs or IBPs to send transit or peering traffic to one another. 69 70 71 72 IPv6 has an 8-bit Traffic Class field in the header. The tunnel end point need not necessarily be the final destination of the IPv6 packet. See Marcus (1999, p. 239). Marcus (1999, pp. 225 and 242) and Minoli and Schmidt (1999, p.354). 28 Final Report 3.3.1 Partitioning of a network into ASes A priori the network manager of a newly established IP network may have no AS number at all, a single AS number, or more than one AS number.73 Usually there is no need to have an AS number if an IP network has only a single connection to an ISP. In such cases, the IP network can be treated as part of the ISP’s AS for exterior routing purposes. This situation is not generally changed if there are two or more connections to a single ISP and if these connections are to a single AS of the ISP. However, if the IP network is connected to two or more different ISPs or, equivalently, to two or more distinct ASes of a single ISP then there is a need for the IP network to have its own AS number. Minoli and Schmidt (1999, p. 354-355) distinguish three different types of ASes: • Single-homed AS, • Multi-homed non-transit AS, • Multi-homed transit AS. A single-homed AS corresponds to an ISP that has only one possible outbound route.74 Multi-homed non-transit ASes are used by ISPs that have Internet connectivity to either two different ISPs or have connectivity at two different locations on the Internet. Nontransit in this context means that the AS only advertises reachability to IP addresses from within its domain. Minoli and Schmidt point out that there is neither a need for a non-transit AS to advertise its own routes nor to transmit routes learned from other ASes outside of its domain.75 Multi-homed transit ASes correspond to networks with multiple entry and exit points which in addition are carrying transit traffic, i.e. traffic that contains source and destination addresses that are not within the ISP’s domain. In this context the issue arises as to whether an entity should opt for a single AS network or a multi-AS network. Advantages of having a collection of ASes rather than one single AS include scalability and fault tolerance.76 The latter means that problems in one AS do not necessarily carry over to the other ASes. In our interviews, experts from IBPs have sometimes argued that there are advantages of having a single AS number, namely: • 73 74 75 76 Cost efficiency (you need only a single operation centre), and More details on this can be found in Marcus (1999, chapter 12). As we have seen above in this case either static or default routing can be applied. They conclude that a multi-homed non-transit AS does not need to run BGP. Marcus (1999), p. 249. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks • 29 The characteristic of BGP-4 to forward traffic on the basis of the shortest number of AS hops. In regard to the latter argument ISPs that are multi-homed will chose between alternative routes according to which one involves the least number of hops, and a hop is synonymous with an AS number. Thus, if an IBP can show a single AS number to the world it has a competitive advantage over those IBPs that show more than one AS number. A diagrammatic example is set out in Figure 3-2. It shows an Australian example and assumes an end-user with dual connections that provide alternative access to the backbone, and who requires access to content located in the U.S.77 The situation in the example no longer applies in practice as C&W has sold Optus. However, it shows the advantage C&W would have had over IBPs that show several AS numbers to the world like such as UUNet.78 In our interviews we were told that Telia, Sprint, and Global Crossing79 are each moving to a single AS number. Figure 3-2: Routing of traffic of an end-user connected to two ISPs US In fo rm atio n U U N et U S A (A S 7 01 ) C&W A S 3561 U U N et A ustralia (A S 7 03 ) (C & W ) O p tu s (A u stralia) Source: Based on information given by Cable & Wireless 77 In Australia around 30 % of homes are dual-connect. 78 UUNet’s Asia Pacific AS number is 703 and its US AS number is 701. UUNet follows a confederated approach for the three parts of the world they are active in (North America, Asia Pacific, Europe); as regards confederation see below. 79 Global Crossing filed for bankruptcy protection under chapter 11 in early 2002. 30 Final Report 3.3.2 Multi-Exit Discriminator If two ASes are physically contiguous and if there is more than one point of interconnection between the ASes, each AS will route to the other by using shortest exit as a default rule. From the perspective of cost this rule is therefore inherently in favour of the sender. Otherwise stated, the sending network does not take account of the distance that the traffic has to go on the receiving network. This is also known as "hotpotato" routing. One procedure to partially counter the hot-potato effect and keep traffic on the sending ISP's network for longer, is called Multi-Exit Discriminator (MED). MED is one of the path attributes provided by BGP and used to convey a preference for data flows between two ISPs interconnected at multiple locations.80 Applied by the receiving network, MED sets up a "preference order" across the multiple interconnection points and imposes a preferred interconnection point on the sending network. Thus, MED tends to lessen the transmission costs for the receiving network and increase the transmission costs for the sending network. 3.3.3 Confederations Confederations are a particular case of several ASes in which the (usually very large) network of an organisation is split. The characteristic feature of a confederated network is that a single core or transit AS serves as a backbone which interconnects all of the other ASes of the network. The routing protocol applied in this situation is usually BGP4. Under this arrangement, external ASes only connect to the transit AS, i.e. they would regard the entire network as a single AS, namely the transit AS (to which all the other ASes are connected). The outside world does not need to know these sub-ASes such that non-core ASes are only visible internally.81 80 See also Minoli and Schmidt (1999, p. 361). 81 Confederations are very common and standardised in routers. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 4 4.1 31 Quality of service The QoS problem put in context Packet switched networks such as those using IP have existed for about 40 years. They have traditionally been associated with relatively cheap and, relative to the PSTN, low QoS networks suitable for low priority data traffic. The performance characteristics of circuit switched networks (the PSTN) and packet switched networks were so different that they could not be considered as being in the same market,82 i.e. except for some minor substitution on the margin, they were not substitutes for each other, and thus neither provided a significant competitive constraint on the other. Most traffic was voice traffic, and most of the revenues in the industry came from voice calls on the PSTN. In the year of publication of this report (2002) it is still the case that only a very small percentage of all voice traffic is originated, switched, and terminated on other than traditional switched circuit networks. While in terms of the quantity of bits, however, more are attributable to packet oriented networks, in terms of revenues, voice calls still provide more revenue, although data on growth rates suggests this will not last much longer. For long-haul transmissions, most communications are being sent over the same optical transmission links. As such voice circuits are becoming more virtual than real when looking at long-haul routes. The architectures of networks are increasingly comprised of a core packet network, with ATM and IP facilities operating above optical ports and PSTN switching facilities integrated into this optical environment over electrical SDH equipment. The situation is depicted in context in Figure 4-1, in which we note the plane for the traditional Internet. Also included in this figure is an indication of where the Next Generation Internet (NGI) will be situated. We discuss NGI later in this chapter and in Annex B. Technologies are constantly being developed which improve the optimal capacity assignment to a service requirement, improving network utilisation and opening possibilities which may play a crucial role in enabling end-users to receive from their ISP services with different qualities such as high quality ‘real-time’ service, these being in addition to the availability of the traditional best effort service. In recent years such developments include the integration of ATM and IP networks, tag switching, prioritisation of packets, capacity reservation capability, softswitching, MultiProtocol labelling, and in the foreseeable future, optical switching under the Internet control plane.83 These technologies are discussed in further detailed in the Annex B. 82 We use the term in its antitrust sense. 83 For an interesting discussion of the scientic basis of these developments, see the papers in Scientific American, January 2001, especially those by Bishop, Giles, and Das (2001); Blumenthal, (2001). 32 Final Report Figure 4-1: Relation of current and future logical layer with physical layers PSTN/ISDN Logical layer Traditional Internet & data networks like FR First Generation BB Networks ATM Next Generation Internet SDH Lower Layer E1, E3 Electrical CCX SDH Higher Layer E4, STM-1 Optical Layer OC 48 / OC 192 Optical CCX Fibre Layer 40G and more Cable topology Source: WIK-Consult Presently, congestion in the Internet backbone is not a problem most Internet users are usually aware of. This is due to several factors the most significant of which are the following: (i) The relatively slow speed provided by most residential access lines;84 (ii) The bottleneck in the access network part e.g. in xDSL access, or the virtual connection between the DSLAM and the backbone network point; (iii) Bottlenecks that occur within LANs and end-user ISPs, and in WAINs and at respective interconnection points;85 (iv) Practices adopted by the industry to localise IP traffic and addressing functions which avoid long-haul requests and long haul traffic delivery; these include caching, secondary peering, IP multicasting, mirror cites and digital warehousing, and moving DNS servers to regions outside the USA,86 and (v) Services requiring high QoS have not been developed sufficiently for there to be significant effective demand (although there may be considerable latent demand).87 84 In practice with a 56 Kbps analogue modem, the existing standard for most residential users, theoretical speeds normally reach no more than 32 kbps with a maximum of about 50 Kbps. 85 See Clark (1997). 86 We discuss these services in more detail in Chapter 5. 87 Services provides at present are: e-mail, file transfer {FTP}, WWW, streaming audio and video, VoIP, and real time video. The latter two require strong QoS values which tends to be lacking on the Internet 33 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks This study is concerned with traffic exchange involving core ISPs, and is not directly concerned with the first three points, although, as indicated in Figure 4-2 some of the details concerning traffic exchange involving core ISPs may be explained by what is happening downstream – in markets closer to end users. Figure 4-2: Host End-to-end QoS Host Router H EW LE TT P AC KA RD IBP HEW LETT PAC KAR D HE WL ETT PA CKAR D ISP (B) HE W LETT PA CK AR D ISP (A) Superior GoS ‘Best effort’ GoS Not normally a commercially viable service if it is not end-to-end Source: WIK-Consult The flow of revenues on the Internet is dependent on the provision of an end-to-end service. If a service with its corresponding service attributes can not be carried end-toend in a way that enhances the service purchased by end users, or lowers service prices, then the revenues necessary to support it will not normally be forthcoming.88 Like any communication, a communication over the Internet needs to get to the place or person intended for it to have value. Indeed, in a very fundamental way each of the different revenue streams that appear in Figure 2-1 are dependent on there being an end-to-end service. Essentially the same arguments apply in getting low blocking probability to services with special QoS parameters. If a particular service which is superior to ‘best effort’ can not be detected by the users on either end of the communication then it is hard to see where the revenues will come from to pay for the cost of the ‘superior’ service. A pictorial representation of this point can be seen in Figure 4-2 which shows the at present while the streaming services already works under weak QoS conditions and can be received in most cases. 88 We can envisage services that might still be purchased by firms if they consider it disadvantages their rivals; i.e. part of a strategy that may enhance a firm’s market power. 34 Final Report commercially unlikely case of a superior QoS / GoS (Grade of Service) being provided on a section falling somewhere in between the two hosts.89 The forth point above is suggestive of the competition between Internet backbone providers and firms involved in moving content closer to the edges of the Internet. We address this issue in Chapter 5. The fifth point refers to factors that are crucial to the development of the Internet generally, although as noted in the paragraph above, the absence of services or service options, or the existence of interoperability problems between backbones may have their cause outside of Internet backbones and their transit buying customers, such as in QoS problems in access networks and LANS. They may also have their origin in the competition between equipment manufacturers, with individual manufacturers possibly finding it in their interest to sponsor certain standards. We briefly discuss standards issues in Chapter 8. When looking at technical and economic aspects of QoS, there is thus a need to look further than at what is happening in the vicinity of traffic which is exchanged between ISPs, but also to look into the linkages with downstream QoS issues, and any downstream commercial and economic considerations that appear to have significant implications for (upstream) transit traffic exchange. In this chapter and its annex (Annex B) we look into technical aspects of QoS and congestion management. Economic considerations are addressed in Chapters 7 and 8. We proceed by describing QoS before moving onto the issue of QoS at network borders. 4.2 The quality of Internet service 4.2.1 What is QoS? The Internet sends information in packets, which is very different to switch circuit connections provided by the PSTN. This means that from the point of view of a pure transport stream, the Internet provides a much lower ‘connection’ quality than does the PSTN. On the other hand packet switched networks enable the introduction of error checking and error control by retransmission of packets on one or more OSI layer (Transport, network or link). However, one reason for the attractiveness of packet networks compared with the PSTN, is that packet networks provide for a much greater level of utilisation efficiency than do switched circuit networks, meaning that costs per 89 Perhaps CDNs, caches and mirror sites may be considered as a violation of this statement, but not if we consider CDNs, caches and mirror sites as the end point of a request, and the beginning point for the corresponding reply. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 35 bit are lower on the former. The way this superior utilisation efficiency is obtained is through what is called statistical multiplexing. In terms of QoS it means that most things concerning Internet traffic are uncertain and have to be defined probabilistically, such that packets do not receive equal treatment, however, as packets are randomised irrespective of the source or application to which that data is being put, then in this sense no packet can be said to be targeted for superior treatment. In general, QoS is a set of parameters with corresponding values that relate to a flow produced by a service session over a corresponding connection, either point to point or multipoint, multicast and broadcast. The most important QoS parameters in packet/cell switched networks are: • Packet or cell loss ratio (PLR), or arrival which is too late to be useful; • Packet or cell insertion rate (PIR) (caused by errors in the packet label or virtual channel identifier which leads to a valid address of an other connection); • Packet or cell transfer delay (PTD) – the time it takes for packets to go from sender to receiver (Latency);90 • Packet or cell transfer delay variation (PTDV) – also referred to as latency variation (Jitter). In order to fully describe quality perceived by end-users, we should add a parameter to these QoS characteristics which is actually classified as being a Grade of Service (GoS) parameter: • Availability (how often and for how long is the service unavailable?). Grade of Service (GoS) is a parameter in service admission while QoS parameters refers to a service already admitted. Limitations in QoS values are caused either by processing in the host, at the network access interface, or inside the network. Hence, network connections must provide limited values for loss ratio, insertion rate, and delay and delay variation, in order to fulfil specific QoS service parameters. This holds generally, even for "best effort" service (even if it has no special QoS requirement), and for a network which is correctly dimensioned in order to avoid congestion.91 90 Latency often depends on geography. An American interview partner pointed out that it will involve a different figure for east to west coast of the US (e.g. 70 ms round trip) compared to trans-Atlantic (e.g. 7 ms round trip). This figure should be controlled, the pure propagation delay is 4micros /km resulting over a transatlantic cable at least 4 ms, the pure transmission delay for a packet of 2 kbyte results over an DS1 connection approximately 10ms + waiting time in case of a charge of A=0,5 Erlang results other 5ms totally 19ms. This figure may be true in case of a high speed connection over STM1 because in this case the propagation delay dominate the total delay. 91 As a general rule, networks are considered to be correctly dimensioned when the load in the packet processor and on the transmission links does not exceed 70%. 36 Final Report The range of services that can be provided over the Internet make different demands on QoS. VoIP is said to tolerate a certain level of latency, jitter and bandwidth, while video streaming requires higher bandwidth, although may tolerate slightly more latency and jitter than does VoIP.92 To the extent the ‘real time’ applications can adjust the time of playback93 then latency and jitter statistics required of the network will be correspondingly lower. Adjusting play-back times is not possible for VoIP, although it is for streaming video. In the case of interactive services, minor adjustment in play-back times would be workable for some interactive services, but some will require real-time QoS. Figure 4-3 shows loss and delay variation parameters applicable to various applications. Figure 4-3: Application specific loss and delay variation QoS requirements Voice 10-2 File transfer Interactive data Loss ratio 10-4 Web browsing 10-6 Interactive video 10-8 Circuit Emulation Broadcast video 10-10 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 10 0 10 1 Maximum delay variation (seconds) Source: McDysan (2000) As originally envisaged, the Internet was not designed for services with real time requirements. We noted in Chapter 3 that as opposed to the traditional telephone network's use of switched circuits that are opened for the duration of a telephone conversation, the Internet uses datagrams that may have other datagrams just in front and behind that belong to different communication sources and are destined to 92 Only about 5% of packets are permitted to arrive after 30-50 milliseconds if VoIP is to be of an acceptable quality, see Peha (1991) cited in Wang et al. (1997). This value may be extended up to 200 ms using echo cancelling which is included in most VoIP standards (e.g. G.729). 93 It does this by 'buffering' – i.e. by holding packets in memory for very short periods of time until the packets can be 'played back' in the correct order without noticeable delay. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 37 terminate on a different host. Thus, datagrams from very many sources are organised for transport, often sharing the same transport pipe, channels (one direction) or circuits (bidirectional). This is part of the traffic management function and is known as statistical multiplexing which involves the aggregation of data from many different sources so as to optimise the use of network resources. Many technological changes have occurred over the years, but it remains the case that quality of service on the Internet is still seen as essentially a technical matter.94 In Annex B to this chapter, and in a less detailed way in the remainder of this chapter, we address the architectural features of the Internet that have a significant bearing on QoS. We note, however, that arguably the main means by which the Internet has tried to reduce QoS problems is through over-dimensioning (or over-provisioning or overengineering). We discuss the efficacy of this approach in Chapter 8. The Internet provides two main ways in which traffic can be managed selectively for QoS. 1. To mark the packets with different priorities (tagging), or 2. To periodically reserve capacities on connections where higher QoS is required. The first one provides for packets requiring high priority to be treated preferentially compared to packets with lower priority. This approach to QoS is implemented in the router and provides for different queues for priority and non-priority packets, where selection of the next packet to go out is determined through a weighted queuing algorithm. In the second case a form of signalling is introduced which tries to guarantee a minimum value of capacity for the corresponding packet flows which requires a higher QoS degree. In both cases the highest quality option involves the emulation of virtual circuits (VC) or virtual paths (VP), and not types of end-user services. In neither case can fixed values of QoS be guaranteed as can be provided in case of pure circuit switching. Rather, QoS still needs to be viewed probabilistically, i.e. in terms of QoS statistics that are superior in some way to the standard QoS. In short, it is still a "best effort" service, although on average best effort will provide a significant QoS improvement over the standard Internet. It is implemented by the real-time transport protocol (RTP) and is supplemented by a corresponding control protocol known as realtime control protocol (RTCP) which controls the virtual connection used by this technology.95,96 94 Perhaps the main ones are: service segregation by DiffServ; Capacity reservation under the IntServ concept and MPLS; Layer reduction mainly in the physical one due progress in switching and routing technology, and introduction of the concept of Metropolitan and Wide area Ethernet. 95 See RFC1889 and RFC1890. 96 Competition between ISPs that sell transit services has forced them into provide QoS agreements in order to attract transit buying customers (smaller ISPs). These 'guarantees are based on probabilities 38 Final Report Where end-users experience service quality problems a large number of factors may be the cause, e.g. equipment and cable failures, software bugs, accidents like interruption in electricity provision. But the most pervasive of QoS problems are caused by congestion, and a lack of interoperability above level 3 of the OSI. We discuss congestion immediately below. Technical and interoperability issues are discussed in Section 4.3 and in Annex B. 4.2.2 Congestion and QoS Congestion on an Internet backbone can be caused by many different types of bottleneck. A list of the main ones has been proposed by McDysan (2000), and they are as follows: • Transmission link capacity • Router packet forwarding rate • Specialised resource (e.g. tone receiver) availability • Call processor rate • Buffer capacity Congestion management on the Internet divides into two functional steps: congestion avoidance, and congestion control, both of which are applied inside the network or at its boundaries. Congestion avoidance at the boundary functions by refusing to accept new service admission when by doing so it may degrade the QoS parameters for the flows of services that have already been accepted. Inside the network congestion is avoided by rerouting traffic from congested network elements to non congested ones through the use of a dynamic routing protocol e.g. OSPF. 4.3 QoS problems at borders When traffic is exchanged between ISP networks it becomes what is termed "off-net" traffic.97 A range of QoS problems arise with off-net traffic. These can be placed into two groups: 1. Those that give rise to the QoS problems themselves, and that statistics will not meet certain QoS. Transit providers sometimes have to compensate their clients where performance statistics have fallen short of those that were contracted for. 97 On-Net traffic means traffic that is interchanged between hosts connected to the same AS and hence routed with an interior gateway routing protocol (IGP), in contrast to Off-Net traffic which is routed between different ASes by an exterior gateway routing protocol (EGP). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 39 2. Those that delay possible solutions to these problems. We begin here by first addressing (1) (the off-net QoS problems themselves, and their causes), before moving onto to look at (2), (some of the reasons that solutions to these problems may be delayed). The main off-net QoS problems appear to be explained by the following: (i) Where interconnecting networks use different vendor equipment, and this equipment does not involve wholly standardised industry offerings:98 • At the physical network layer where the optical technologies operate,99 the equipment needs to be from the same vendor if ring structures with ADM multiplexers are to be used. These ring structures are cheaper to implement than structures with DX4 cross-connectors, and corresponding point-to-point transmission systems. However, ring structures are less flexible in rerouting STM-1 contributions due to their implementation by fixed hardware cards. Using the so called "self healing" ring an automatic restoration mechanism is implemented in case of ring failures.100 • Modification of the connections at the optical level for client ISPs are problematic in part because there is currently no automated way of doing it.101 Even if in future some optical cross connecting systems OCX could do this, only high speed signals in the range of OC48 or OC192 can be managed and rerouted in case of transmission failure. • In regard to meshed DX4 structures, equipment from different vendors may interconnect in the transport plane but in many cases not in the management one. As network management is a key feature for rerouting capability at the STM-1 level, a network operator will in practice have to use equipment from a limited number of vendors in order to maintain network management capabilities. • The ITU also provided a standardized interface for management between networks but it remains largely unimplemented.102 In order to overcome the off-net QoS problems caused by possible non interoperability between proprietary management systems, a special umbrella management system would be required wherever two or more vendors' equipment is used. 98 See the discussion on standardisation in Chapter 8 for background information on this topic. 99 SDH is used in Europe; SONET in North America. rd 100 In cases where optical connection between networks need to pass through a 3 operator, the lack of an inter-operator network interface mainly gives rise to capacity availability problems, which can be overcome by stand-by capacities and in future by wavelength rerouting. 101 See Bogaert (2001). 102 Its implementation is costly and it has not yet been widely adopted. For a short introduction see Bocker (1997). 40 (ii) Final Report Service level agreements (SLAs) offered by transit providers are all different. The statistical properties of ISP networks are different, and are not readily comparable for reasons that include differences in the way this data is collected. The upshot is that degradation of QoS at borders is very common. In the case of ATM quantitative values regarding QoS parameters are not defined in ATM’s specification. This has resulted in the ISPs using different specifications for VBR service, with the consequence that when traffic crosses borders QoS is not maintained. (iii) Equipment that is two or more years old is less likely to provide the QoS capabilities that are being offered by other networks, or other parts of the network, such that QoS tends to degrade toward a level where there is interoperability, perhaps the most likely being the TCP/IP format which was designed to enable interoperability between networks using different hardware and software solutions. In regard to point (2) (on the previous page), all networks that handle datagrams being sent between communicating hosts (‘terminal equipment’ in PSTN language), need to be able to retain the QoS parameters that are provided by the originating network if those QoS parameters are going to be actualised between the hosts or communicating parties. In other words, if one of the ISP networks involved in providing the communication imparts a lower QoS in its part of the network than is provided by the others, the QoS of the flow will be corresponding reduced. The situation was shown in Figure 4-2. This may give rise to a coordination problem, as individual networks may be reluctant to invest in higher QoS without there being some way of coordinating such an upgrade with others in the chain. Moreover, QoS problems at borders may also be a function of the competitive strategies of ISPs, especially the largest transit providers, as these firms recognise that they have some control over the competitive environment in which they operate. These aspects of QoS are addressed in Chapters 7 and 8. 4.4 QoS and the Next Generation Internet The Internet presently provides a number of different services to end-users and the range of services seems likely to become greater in future. The Internet is a converging force between historically different platforms providing different services. These include: traditional point-to-point telecommunications services, point-to-multipoint conference services and multicast and broadcast distribution services like video streaming and TV. Note, that two-way CATV networks are already providing the integration of traditional point-to-point call services like voice telephony with TV broadcast distribution and pay-per-view video services and classical Internet services like e-mail and WWW access. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 41 In a complete services integrated IP network all of this information can be organised into packets or cells (datagrams) and transmitted over the Internet, although as provided through the Internet IP platform, the experience of consumers with at least some of these services is typically of relatively low quality in comparison with the service quality provided by relevant legacy platforms.103 Improvement in QoS on the Internet is key for the implementation of the next generation Internet. By this we mean the ability to provide the speed and reliability of packet delivery needed for services like VoIP and interactive services, to be provided over the Internet to a quality that enables mass market uptake. Indeed, we define the Next Generation Internet as a network of networks integrating a large number of services and competing in markets for telephony and real-time broadcast and interactive data and video, in addition to those services traditionally provided by ISPs. For convergence of the Internet to occur with switched telephone services and broadcasting (i.e. for the Internet to become a good substitute for the PSTN, and existing broadcasting network/service providers), requires significant improvements in the existing QoS on the Internet. Although many of the specific technologies we discuss in Annex B, are not yet fully developed, several offer the prospect that high quality real-time services could to be commonly provided over the Internet in the medium term. Actual business solutions that rely on these technologies are yet to materialise,104 however, due in part to the highly diverse nature of the Internet, and especially off-net QoS problems, which we discussed in Section 4.3.105 It is worth noting that the bulk of revenues that pay for the Internet come from endusers (organisations and households). Where for a certain service only one GoS/QoS is offered all demands are treated equally. Moreover, where only one GoS/QoS is offered, each end-user’s demand may look singular, but it will in fact be made up of untapped demand for various GoSes, depending on such things as the application requested, and preferences that may only be known to each end-user. One truth we can be sure of is that the demand for multiple GoSes/QoSes will be derived from the demands of end-users. ISPs will be keeping this in mind as these GoS development materialise. We shown this situation in Figure 4-4. The distribution on the lower part of the figure captures all Internet customers, from those specialised organisation that have mission critical services that require a high 103 Exceptions do arise, such as on intranets where network designers are better able to address end-toend QoS. 104 See the various articles in the special issue "Next Generation Now”, of Alcatel Telecommunication Review (2001). 105 See Keagy (2000) for more details. Ingenious developments exist, however, which take advantage of the present state of Internet QoS. ITXC, for example, provides VoIP service using software that enables them to search different ISP networks for the best QoS being offered at that time. Where no QoS is available that would provide acceptable quality, calls are routed over the PSTN. See http://www.itxc.com/ 42 Final Report admission probability and strong QoS values as well as needing traditional e-mail and browsing services, to those who only use the Internet to send non urgent messages. However, most customers who makes up this distribution can be expected to use the Internet for several different purposes, and to consume several different services, such as e-mail, file transfer, WWW, and video streaming. Differences in an individual’s demand for admission and QoS depend in part on the application and purpose of the communication, as indicated by the bar graphs at the top of the Figure 4-4. Figure 4-4: Demand for Internet service deconstructed Bits per month Demand for services requiring high QoS Demand for Demand for services not services requiring QoS requiring moderate QoS Demand for services requiring high QoS Distribution of all demand for QoS by Internet subscriber Zero WTP for QoS Sing le cu stom e r Demand for Demand for services not services requiring QoS requiring moderate QoS Single customer Number of Internet customers Bits per month High WTP for QoS Notes: WTP willingness to pay. Source: WIK-Consult. Before convergence can be said to have occurred, there will be a transition period during which real-time services such as VoIP, begin to provide real competitive pressure on legacy PSTN providers, and it is interesting to think about how QoS on this transition Internet will differ to what is provided today. One of the main transitional problems over the next few years may have less to do with the quality of real-time sessions, but with service admission control which can enable over-loading of packets in the IP datagram network to be avoided during congested Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 43 periods. In traditional networks like PSTN or switched frame relay networks where capacity is assigned during the connection admission phase, the blocking probability for a service is described by a stochastic model, and the value provided defines the GoS. As we show later (and especially in Annex B), the main capacity bottleneck inside the network lies in the access part and hence service admission control can be limited to these areas of the network under corresponding protocols e.g. MPLS. Under such circumstances the service admission controls nearly always avoid the over-flooding of the capacities in the backbone part of a future Internet and QoS differences between the services can easily be controlled by simpler DiffServ protocols. In multi service networks, as the NGI Service Admission control under GoS values are not described in the same way as for traditional networks, but through more sophisticated models and algorithms.106 Without a means of demand management considerable over-provisioning will be required if large numbers of users of real-time services, especially VoIP, are not to experience instances of network unavailability that are too frequent for them to tolerate. What may happen is that subscribers who are sensitive to service availability will remain with the PSTN for much longer than subscribers who are more price sensitive and who do not mind being unable to make a call say, 1 in 3 attempts. Currently there are different option to provide QoS on IP Networks and these include MPLS, DiffServ, and Ipv6 or perhaps most easily the TOS octet in the Ipv4 header for the definition and recognition of a traffic hierarchy. For the Next Generation Internet five traffic levels are envisaged which are shown in Table 4-1. Table 4-1: Traffic hierarchies in next generation networks Traffic level Traffic type Service example NJ4 Traffic for functions NJ3 Real time bi-directional traffic Voice and video communication NJ2 Real time uni-directional traffic Audio Video streaming, TV distribution NJ1 Guaranteed data traffic Retrieval services NJ0 Non guarantied data traffic Best effort information service OAM and signalling Network or connection Monitoring Source: Melian et. al. (2002) Excluding NJ4, which is mainly used for internal network use, the four different QoSes identified in Table 4-1 should allow all the services identified in Figure 4-3 to fit 106 See Ross (1995). 44 Final Report relatively well into at least one of the four QoS options shown. Figure 4-5 suggests what these might look like. Figure 4-5: Fitting GoSes within service QoS requirements Voice 10-2 File transfer 10-4 Loss ratio Interactive data? Web browsing ? 10-6 Interactive video 10-8 Circuit Emulation Broadcast video 10-10 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 10 0 10 1 Maximum delay variation (seconds) According to the options identified by Table 4-1, when a user initiates a session she would have to pay a tariff corresponding to the service class. The price will decrease, from NJ3 to NJ0. In cases where the network does not have sufficient capacity for the required service the user may chose one with lower QoS values. Moreover, network designers have to consider that with specified service admission control, a certain GoS value has to be fulfilled for each class of service (CoS). This may lead to the situation where a service request for a lower class of service is rejected even though there is sufficient free capacity for the reservation to be made, in order to provide this capacity for a future request for higher service class which is charged at a higher price.107 For interactive data end-users may pay for a QoS that was in excess of what they needed (NJ1), or they could pay a lower price but would obtain a QoS that was rather less than the type of service required (NJ0). When network resources were nearing capacity the latter would predictably result in some perceivable QoS problems for the user. 107 Under economic considerations this traffic engineering problem is known as a "stochastic knapsack” problem, well known in Operations Research. It describes the situation where a mountain climber fills his backpack with items and each product has two values: one for usefulness and one for weight. The climber then needs to maximize his benefit under the weight constraint, see Ross (1995). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 4.5 45 Conclusion: Service quality problem areas There are several factors presently holding back the development of the Internet into an integrated services network. These can be grouped into several overlapping categories:108 • Congestion management on IP networks is not yet especially well developed, and often results in inadequate quality of service for some types of service, e.g. VoIP;109 • The superior QoS can not be retained between ISPs due to technical reasons, such as software and even hardware incompatibility (an ISP’s software/hardware may not support the QoS features provided by another ISP); • There is a lack of accounting information systems able to provide the necessary measurement and billing between networks; • There is no interface with end-users that enables different GoS/QoS combinations to be chosen in a way that provides value to users, and • The quality of access networks is presently insufficient for QoS problems between backbones to be noticed by end-users under most circumstances. These issues remain largely unresolved, although considerable effort is being undertaken to overcome them. 108 As this study concerns the Internet backbone, we do not address issues relating per se to customer access. 109 According to McDysan (2000), a number of resource types may be a bottleneck in a communications network, the main ones being the following: transmission link capacity; router packet forwarding rate; specialised resource (e.g. tone receiver) availability; call processor rate, and buffer capacity. 46 5 Final Report Interconnection and Partial Substitutes 5.1 The structure of connectivity Traffic exchange on the Internet is performed between ISPs that tend to differ in terms of their geographical coverage and often also in terms of the hierarchical layer of the Internet each occupies. Interconnection between ISPs can be categorised into peering and transit. ISPs are connected to one or more ISPs by a combination of peering and transit arrangements. Visualisation of the structure of interconnecting ISPs is shown in Figure 5-1 and which was introduced in a slightly more simplified form in Section 2.2. Figure 5-1: Hierarchical View of the Internet (II): Peering and transit relationships between ISPs Inter-National Backbone Providers or Core ISPs (multi-regional or world-wide) P P P T Virtually default free zone T T SP P P T T Inter-National Backbone Providers (with regional focus) T SP P Intra-National Backbone Provider P T T T ... Country A ... ... Country B Country C Local ISPs End-user T = Transit P = Peering SP = Part-address peering Source: WIK-Consult own construction This Chapter explains peering and transit, and includes a description of services that tend to serve as partial substitutes for these two forms of interconnection. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 5.2 47 Interconnection: Peering 5.2.1 Settlement free peering Peering denotes a bilateral business and technical arrangement between two ISPs who agree to exchange traffic and related routing information between their networks. Peering has sometimes been seen as a superior interconnection product compared to transit, such that refusals to peer have sometimes been looked on with suspicion by the authorities. Probably in part because of this history peering is often associated with the most powerful ISPs; it is virtually the only form of interconnection negotiated by core ISPs. While there was a restructuring of interconnection 'agreements' in the mid 1990s whereby many firms were shifted onto transit contracts from peering contracts, in the last few years peering has proliferated at a regional level among smaller ISPs (i.e. ISPs that have transit contracts for a significant proportion of their traffic). ISPs who can offer each other similar peering values will often choose to peer. For example, peering has become common among regional ISPs. An ISP will only terminate traffic under a peering arrangement which is destined for one of its own customers. Packets handed over at interconnection points that are not destined for termination on the receiving ISPs network, will only be accepted under a transit arrangement, which we discuss below.110 Interconnection between peers does not involve monetary payment (except in rare cases which we discuss below under 'paid peering'). This type of interconnection is known variously as: "bill-and-keep"; "settlement-free"; "sender-keeps-all".111 If packets are accepted under a peering arrangement (i.e. for termination on the peering partners network), there is no charge levied by the accepting network. This reciprocity does not specifically require that peering partners be of equal size or have the same number of customers. Rather, it requires that both network operators incur roughly comparable net benefits from the agreement; with arguably the main elements being the routing and carrying of each other's traffic, and the benefits provided by access to the other ISP’s address space. There is thus an implicit price for peered interconnection – the cost of providing the reciprocal service. 110 If two ISPs peer they accept traffic from one another and from one another’s customers (and thus from their customers‘ customers). Peering does, however, not include the obligation to carry traffic to third parties. See Marcus (2001b). 111 This type of interconnection it not unknown in switched circuit networks, and has been recommended in an FCC working paper, see DeGraba (2000a). 48 Final Report It is not possible to conduct any empirical analysis of the implicit or shadow price for peering, given that the terms of such agreements are, ordinarily, subject to confidentiality and non-disclosure obligations. However, several core ISPs do provide a list of the conditions which other ISPs will need to meet if peering interconnection is to be agreed between them, and these are set out in Section 6.4 and Annex C. We note, however, that despite the increasing commercialisation of the Internet and the attempt of a number of backbone providers to formalise their peering practices of late, pricing is still largely about impressions of value. There is no formalised way to measure the values involved, which will vary on a case-by-case basis. We do not think that this situation should per se be cause for concern by the authorities.112 It may occur that a larger and smaller ISP agree to peer in a region.113 In Figure 5-1 above we have referred to this as part-address peering. This is because in such cases it is typical for the peering arrangement not to involve the larger ISP agreeing with the smaller ISP to provide access to all its customers according to a sender-keeps-all arrangement. Rather, the addresses that are made available under the settlement free arrangement will only include an agreed list which is roughly comparable to that provided to the larger ISP by the smaller ISP, i.e. peering addresses which the smaller ISP can advertise are a subset of the larger ISP's total addresses. If this did not occur the smaller ISP would in all likelihood be getting a free-ride on the larger ISPs more extensive network – this being either its physical network, or its larger network of customers. Sometimes ISPs will agree to peer across separate countries, such as when one ISP provides its German address to another ISP in exchange for the other ISPs Italian addresses. 5.2.2 Paid peering Paid Peering is suggestive of a traffic imbalance issue in an otherwise peering environment. Suppose a situation applies where an ISP is interested in the routes (i.e. broadly speaking the address space) offered by an IBP and meets virtually all the peering criteria by the IBP. The only crucial feature is that it is considered that the IBP will end up transporting rather more packet kilometres handed over for termination by the ISP, than the ISP would transport packet Km handed over by the IBP for termination by the ISP. In this situation paid peering may take place. We understand that paid peering is very rare, and not formally offered by IBPs, but is occasionally negotiated. Paid peering arrangements also have a technical rationale. Suppose an IBP operates in more than one region of the world, and suppose an ISP clearly meets all peering 112 Interestingly, one of the results that comes out of the industry model of Laffont, Marcus, Rey and Tirole (LMRT) (2001a), is that where competition is sufficiently intense throughout the industry, the choice between peering and transit is irrelevant. We discuss LMRT in detail in Chapter 8. 113 By larger we refer e.g. to customer base or geographic network coverage or both. 49 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks requirements in one of those regions (this would be address subset peering), but also wants to interconnect in another region where transit would be the most suitable arrangement. The implementation of this system is not possible if the IBP and the ISP each show a single AS number to the outside world. In this case ISPs are technically prevented from having a peering arrangement in one region and a transit arrangement in another. If on balance transit traffic would be a relatively small proportion of the ISPs total interconnected traffic handed over to the IBP, the situation suggests a peering relationship would be more suitable. The situation is shown in Figure 5-2. More common, however, than paid peering is discounted transit, which we discuss below. Figure 5-2: Technical obstacles behind paid peering USA Europe ISPXYZ Cannot be a transit arrangement ∴paid peering is used Peering (C&W giving Euro routes only) ISPC&W Single AS Source: WIK-Consult on the basis of information derived from interviews 5.2.3 Private peering Peering may be either public or private. Private peering occurs on a bilateral basis in a place agreed by the parties, and thus may not be observed by any other internet entity. It seems likely that a significant part of Internet traffic at the time of writing of the study is exchanged through private peering. Indeed, it was estimated a few years ago that at 50 Final Report least 80% of Internet traffic in the United States was exchanged through private peering.114 In the EU the figure, however, is thought to be significantly lower. One reason for this may be the fact that most Web sites are hosted in the USA even those for which a majority of users are outside the USA. This appears to be the result of the lower hosting costs in the USA compared with other places (e.g. Europe), this apparently compensating for the higher cost of transporting datagrams for long distances. The growth in private peering that occurred in the mid to late 1990s can at least in part be explained by traffic congestion at NAPs, and because it can be more cost-effective for the operators (for example, traffic originating and terminating in the same city but on different networks, there is no need for this traffic to be carried elsewhere to a NAP to be handed-off). Figure 5-3: Secondary peering and transit compared Transit IBP / large ISP Regional / local ISP Secondary peering Transit IBP / large ISP Regional / local ISP Secondary peering will occur when the cost of the connection to each ISP is less than the money each saves due to reduced transit traffic Source: Marcus (2001b) Private peering can take place between IBPs or it can occur between lower level ISPs, such as between two local or regional ISPs. Where the latter occurs it is also known as secondary peering, and is increasingly common in the EU (and elsewhere) as among other things, liberalisation has helped make the infrastructure available at much lower prices than had previously been the case. Secondary peering enables regional and local ISPs to access end-users and content and application service providers’ services situated on the networks of neighbouring ISPs, without having to route traffic up through the hierarchy. Figure 5-3 shows the relationship between secondary peering 114 Michael Gaddis, CTO of SAVVIS Communications in "ISP Survival Guide", inter@active week online, 7 December 1998; see also Gareiss (1999). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 51 and transit. The mix of hierarchical and horizontal interconnection which forms the Internet can be seen in Figure 5-1.115 The growth of secondary peering has prompted the emergence of a new class of "connectivity aggregators", whose function is to combine the traffic of smaller ISPs and acquire connectivity from larger ISPs. Examples include the new breed of NAP which provide a range of services to interconnecting ISPs. We discuss these further in Section 5.5 below. 5.2.4 Public peering Public peering occurs at public peering points, also known as Network Access Points (NAPs), or Metropolitan Area Exchanges "MAEs" in the United States. Large numbers of networks exchange traffic at these points.116 NAPs are geographically dispersed and like private peering, peering partners use "hot-potato routing" to pass traffic to each other at the earliest point of exchange. Private peering differs from public peering to the extent that it occurs at a point agreed by the two interconnecting network operators. 5.2.5 Structural variations in peering 5.2.5.1 Third Party Administrator In this case several ISPs interconnect at a location where interconnection administration is operated by a party who is not an ISP network. This model of interconnection was developed in the pre-commercial period by the National Science Foundation (NSF) with network access points (NAPs), and subsequently by the Commercial Internet Exchange (CIX) due the inability of the NSF system to provide access points quickly enough to meet the rapid traffic and network growth that was occurring at the time. These public Internet exchange points (IXPs) are open to all ISPs that comply with specific rules set by the operator of the NAP. NAPs provide an opportunity for ISPs to engage in secondary peering and multihoming, and growth in this form of interconnection has reportedly been increasing in the EU (and elsewhere) in recent years. Indeed, the percentage of all interconnected Internet traffic which is handed over at NAPs may actually be increasing relative to traffic handed over at private peering points. An indication of this is that a much greater 115 We understand that entities such as Digital Island, InterNAP, AboveNet, and SAVVIS peer with hundreds of regional providers. AboveNet, the architect of the global one-stop Internet Service TM Exchange (a network delivering connectivity and collocation for high-bandwidth applications) claims to have more than 420 peering relationships. 116 See Section 6-1 for empirical evidence on main peering points in North America and Europe. 52 Final Report proportion of traffic is now remaining in the regions rather than passing through upper layer ISP networks, than was the case a few years ago. The explanation for these very important and fairly recent developments in secondary peering (and multi-homing) is again explained by liberalisation, but also by the routing standard BGP4 which was first available in 1995 and which has enabled ISPs to adopt "policy routing" and has made alternatives to hierarchical routing "drastically cheaper" than they would have been prior to its availability.117 The increased use of ATM by NAPs may also have been a factor as this has reportedly improved service quality at NAPs, which have long been considered as congestion points in the Internet. Moreover, a network structure of point-to-point bilateral connections does not have good scaling qualities.118 By taking lines to a local exchange and engaging in multiple interconnection, fewer circuits are needed, scalability is improved, and costs are reduced.119 Functions performed at a NAP The following Figure provides an overview of the main set of functions that are provided by NAPs. Figure 5-4: Functional value chain of a NAP additional services: transmission internet access provision internet service provision HW + SW policy equipment manage- (racks, ment LAN, switch) housing space and basic security* content control system (e.g. protection manageof children ment** and young people) additional security services, (e.g. CERT) * e.g. space; secure non-stop power supply; help desk; climate; physical access control ** e.g. LAN-Service; routeserver service CERT: Computer Emergency Response Team Source: WIK-Consult The first of these are transmission services, i.e. each ISP being a member of a NAP needs a physical connection between the premises of his own network nodes to the premises of the NAP. In most cases these are provided by more than one NAP- 117 See Besen et al (2001), Milgrom et al (1999), and BoardWatch Magazine, July 1999. Details about BGP-4 can be found in Minoli and Schmidt (1999, section 8.4). 118 In the USA the largest ISP backbone have apparently begun to interconnect at specified NAP-like locations established for the purpose; see section 6.4.2. 119 See Huston (1999b). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 53 specific company (carriers)120 that provide leased lines or other modes of transmission infrastructure. Usually, the number of carriers providing transmission services to and from the NAP is much lower than the number of members at the NAP.121 From an institutional point of view a carrier providing these services is not a member of the NAP, although in all likelihood the carrier will have a significant stake in an ISP that will be a member.122 A key service for running a NAP besides the hardware and software supplied for the NAP’s LAN is peering policy management. Setting up membership rules for ISPs that aim to connect to the NAP, and the development of a pricing and a peering policy, is a crucial precondition. Furthermore, housing space with basic security features like physical access control, climate control, failsafe power supply and a technical 24/7 help line is needed to secure the availability of the exchange point. The system management for the LAN and its switches is another crucial service within the NAP. In addition to these basic services a NAP may also provide for its member ISPs services like content control or other security services. For example, some countries require ISPs to employ staff to keep out certain content, such as that which exploits children or young people. This function can be integrated within the NAP structure for all member ISPs. Another possibility is to offer additional security services by a CERT (Computer Emergency Response Team) that warns and protects member ISPs from viruses or attacks by hackers. Because of their central position NAPs are an ideal spot within the Internet network for additional services to be offered to ISPs. The scaling qualities of the NAP structure are likely to be important in explaining the recent adoption by the largest IBPs in the US of points like NAPs where meshed interconnection occurs between them. We discuss this further below. Value chain of a NAP and the institutional perspective From an institutional perspective the division of labour along these stages of the value chain can be high, i.e. no single company provides all the functions identified in Figure 5.4. Rather, there are several firm fulfilling different tasks. Of these we can distinguish the following: 120 Most of the NAPs are connected to the networks of several carriers. Yet, this is not always the case: at MAE East WorldCom is e.g. the only carrier. 121 An example might make this clearer: the Internet exchange point DE-CIX in Frankfurt has 75 members, however, only 17 carriers provide access to the premises of this NAP. The incumbent telecommunications company of Germany, Deutsche Telekom, provides leased lines in Frankfurt to and from DE-CIX’s site, however, Deutsche Telekom is not a member at DE-CIX. 122 Thus, if one company provides both activities one should in principle distinguish the carrier function (providing transmission capacity to and from the NAP) and the actual membership at a NAP representing the ISP function. 54 Final Report • The legal operator like an association of ISPs owning the technical resources such as are needed for switching and routing. This firm makes investment decisions and develops peering policy; • The technical operator like a web housing company which will provide collocation space, and • The company providing the system management, i.e. running the technical infrastructure. Often web housing companies offer a complete service covering the actual housing and the system management. General features of peering policies at NAPs As neutral exchange points all NAPs have a peering policy that covers the following topics: • The conditions needed to become a member (e.g. the number of peering agreements outside of the NAP such as national and international connections); • The kind of peering arrangement (e.g. is pricing allowed, or perhaps only settlements free peering is permitted; • Whether transiting is allowed or not (at many NAPs transiting is forbidden), and • The extent to which multilateral peering is required (i.e. peering on an equal basis with all other members) or whether bilateral peering is accepted practiced. To become a member of a NAP ISPs usually have to peer with a minimum percentage of the other members of the NAP. However, the details of peering agreements between members are not the business of the legal operator of the NAP. 5.2.5.2 Co-operative Agreement This model differs from the third party administrator one in that the point of exchange is managed by a committee of the interconnecting ISPs. This model was used when all those interconnecting were non-commercial US Government supported networks. It continues to exist but not for interconnection between profit seeking ISPs. 5.2.5.3 Taxonomy of Internet Exchange Points The following table contains a taxonomy of IXPs. The table reveals that NAPs might be run for research traffic only or for commercial traffic. If they are used for commercial traffic they might be managed by non-profit organisations or by profit oriented Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 55 companies. Often the non-profit organisations are a consortium of national or regional ISPs that have engaged in a co-operative agreement. This type of NAPs is often called "CIX". If NAPs are run as profit oriented entities the operator is often a carrier or a web housing company. The rationale for establishing NAPs might be different for different ISPs. For local and regional ISPs NAPs offer an opportunity to interconnect with Internet backbone providers. Smaller ISPs usually have difficulties to peer privately with a larger ISP. Settlement-free peering at a NAP helps to reduce costs for upstream connections and peering with many other ISPs at these exchange points also avoids transit fees for the percentage of an ISP’s traffic that is governed by peering contracts. Large ISPs might have an incentive to peer at a NAP for QoS reasons; for example, local/regional peering can avoid congestion on an ISP’s backbone infrastructure. Moreover, large ISPs obtain the benefit of the customer base of the regional ISPs connected to the NAP,123 access to content providers and redundancy of connection to the backbone providers they are connected to. In addition, with its inherently neutral organisational structure, membership at a non-profit NAP offers the opportunity to influence investments and peering policies at the NAP, i.e. members have voting rights. Table 5-1: Name of IXP A taxonomy of Internet exchange points Neutral/Network Access Point (NAP) (= public IXP) Features Private Peering Point (= private IXP) (Third Party) Private Peering Point (bilateral) Customers Universities, Research institutions Commercial ISPs (often called "CIX") Commercial ISPs Commercial ISPs Two ISPs engaged in private peering Operator Non-profit organisation e.g. DFN Non-profit organisation e.g. ECO Forum e.V. IBPs e.g. WorldCom (called "MAE") Carrierindependent data centre operators e.g. Telecity (Housing and Hosting Services) one or both of the two ISPs Objective function Presumably cost coverage e.g. DFN IXP in Berlin Presumably cost coverage e.g. DE-CIX Profit maximisation e.g. MAE FFM Profit maximisation e.g. Telecity data centre in Frankfurt/Main (Presumably) cost minimisation Source: WIK-Consult Grey marked area = 'For profit' IXPs 123 Large ISPs are most likely to agree to peer in regard to a subset of their total address space, when peering is with a smaller ISP (see Figure 5-1). 56 5.3 Final Report Interconnection: Transit The scope of the contractual obligation provided by transit interconnection is much broader than that of a peering relationship. Transit interconnection is the principle means by which most ISPs obtain ubiquitous connectivity on the Internet. Transit denotes a bilateral business and technical arrangement where the transit provider agrees to carry an ISP’s traffic to third parties.124 5.3.1 Rationale Most interconnection arrangements (but not most interconnected datagrams) involving the Internet are now hierarchical bilateral. In the last 5 years, IBPs have moved more and more ISPs from sender-keeps-all relationships, to a transit arrangement, i.e. a situation where the ISPs have to pay for interconnection. In defending their adoption of interconnection charges IBPs argued that they face higher infrastructure costs as a result of ISPs handing over traffic, on average, a very great distance from the destination point. IBPs say that for a period after commercialisation of the Internet when sender-keeps-all interconnection still dominated, smaller ISPs got a 'free-ride' on the national networks of IBPs. The incentive for ISPs is to hand over traffic at a point of interconnection as soon as they can, as this tends to lower the ISPs costs, although increasing the costs of the receiving ISP. The phenomenon is known as "hot-potato" routing and is an accepted principle among all ISPs whether they are international backbone providers or regional ISPs. Transit is the most important means through which most ISPs obtain global connectivity. Transit must be purchased when one ISP wants to hand packets over to a 2nd ISP which are not for delivery on the second ISP's network (i.e. they are for handing over to a 3rd ISP). In a transit arrangement, one ISP pays another for interconnection. Unlike in a peering relationship, the ISP selling transit services will accept traffic that is not for termination on its network, and will route this transit traffic to its peering partners, or will itself purchase transit where the termination address for packets is not on the network of any of its peering partner. As such, a transit agreement offers connection to all end-users on the Internet, which is much more than is provided under a peering arrangement. Even though many ISP are multi-homed it is unlikely that any significant ISP acquires access to all Internet addresses through self-provision and a single peering or transit arrangement. Rather, ISPs will often enter into multiple transit and peering arrangements, more than is required to secure access to all the Internet. 124 Usually, under a transit arrangement the transit provider carries traffic to and from its other customers and to and from every destination on the Internet, see Marcus (2001b). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 57 However, ISPs also provide IBPs (and their customers) with benefits when they interconnect, and the way these are taken into account is through IBPs providing transit at a price net of some of the benefits that the ISP brings to the IBP. IBPs are compelled to offer discounted transit to the extent that competition takes place between them. If an ISP does not like the IBP's net transit price it can go to a number of other IBPs who may be more prepared to negotiate a better net price.125 A discounted transit scheme would be applied, for example, if a peering arrangement appeared suitable in one region, while a transit arrangement appeared most suitable in another. As technically this arrangement consists of a combination of transit and peering, which is only possible where each region of each network used a different AS number (see Chapter 3), the only feasible arrangement is a transit relationship. However, the IBP has an incentive to offer a discount because the routes offered by the ISP to the IBP have a positive value to the IBP. 5.3.2 The structure of transit prices There are several possible charging arrangements for transit. The end-user's ISP (or online service providers – OSPs) could pay as the receiver of transit traffic), the Web hosting ISP (the firm sending the requested data) could pay, or both ISPs could pay the transit provider. In practice, transit is typically charged on a return traffic basis, i.e. on the basis of the traffic handed over to the ISP whose customer requests the information. ISPs that provide transiting (mainly large ISPs and IBPs) charge on the basis that traffic flows from themselves to their ISP customers. Transit providers do not pay anything to their ISP customers even though they receive traffic from them, albeit much less than the traffic flowing from transit providers to customers. While this may not seem very equitable at first glance, present transit charging arrangements have some economic advantages. Not least of these is that it is the largest flow which tends to dictate network capacity, especially at points of interconnection. As most transited packets flow from Web hosting ISPs through transit to another ISP to online service providers, it is this traffic that appears to give rise to congestion and governs the investment needs of ISPs that provide transit. In analysing transit pricing arrangements it is useful to do so in terms of the quality of the economic signals the prices send to the parties involved, especially concerning investment, congestion management, usage, and competition between transit providers. In practice, however, this is made difficult and prone to error as the information is not publicly available and information that is provided verbally tends to be quite general. 125 In some regions it may be the case that competition to provide transit is less effective than it is higher up the Internet. 58 Final Report Our information suggests that there is no accepted industry model that governs the structure of these prices. Some larger ISPs are able to negotiate a price structure with the transit provider, while others choose from a menu. There appear to be three basic dimensions around which transit price offers are structured: • A fixed rate for a certain number of bits per month; • A variable rate for bits in excess of this amount, and • A rate based on peak throughput, which may include: - pipe size, representing the option for peak throughput, and - some measure of actual peak throughput (‘burstiness’). Two part-tariffs appear standard where the fixed charge may be relatively low per bit compared to the variable component.126 To the extent that ISP can accurately estimate their future monthly usage, such arrangements allow ISPs to pay transit charges in the form of a predetermined monthly charge, any extra bits being charged a premium. Premiums may be high but quite possibly in keeping with the transit providers costs in making this extra capacity available for peak demand. However, we understand that some transit buyers pay a flat rate only option. The rationale for flat rate option is that it provides certainty to network customers who have an annual budget to spend on communications, and who prefer the riskless option of paying a certain amount known in advance for all their traffic requirements.127 We would expect that for such customers their overall transit costs are higher than they would be under a two part tariff, as they have effectively rejected any congestion pricing component that would restrict their peak demand. It is common for larger customers to negotiate specific details according to their particular requirements. Large content providers that maintain their own router, and many ISPs (all of whom do likewise) will frequently have interconnection arrangements with more than one transit provider. Where the non-usage price makes up a low proportion of an ISP’s monthly transit bill (as we are told is fairly common in the case of one major transit provider) this price structure may improve the transit buyer’s ability to bargain for competitive prices from transit providers. Such a pricing structure may make multi-homing a more effective policy for ISPs and large content providers, as in addition to a small pipe-size based charge, ISPs and content providers will only pay for the packets they send to their IBP transit provider. Thus, the ISP could choose to send all of its traffic via the IBP that is 126 Routers keep a record of traffic statistics, i.e. there are counters in the router (port). Usually there is no time of day pricing as regards the variable component. 127 The flat rate scheme offers no measurement saving as traffic will be measured anyway. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 59 providing the best price/QoS, but retains the option to switch its traffic to the other IBP should its price/QoS offer become superior, or should an outage occur on the IBP's network the ISP is currently using for transit. This arrangement appears to provide a valuable option to switch between IBPs which multi-homed ISPs or content providers may not be paying for directly.128 The flat rate price structure is thus a take-or-pay arrangement which detracts from the ability of ISPs and content providers to play off IBPs against each other over the period of the contract. For some firms that take the flat rate option, however, it can meet their needs for revenue certainty over the duration of the contract. It seems to us that there are reasons for IBPs to prefer a prominent role for base load and optional capacity pricing, and including some type of payment for the peak capacity option like pipe size. A price that was also based on the variability of traffic throughput would enable those transit buyers who send a relatively constant bit rate to receive a lower price in keeping with their relatively greater reliance on base load capacity rather than peak load capacity.129 5.3.3 QoS guarantees for transit For transit contracts IBPs offer QoS guarantees which usually address three QoS dimensions: latency, packet loss, and availability. IBPs keep the statistical data necessary to verify their own QoS and provide periodic reports to clients. Any breach of QoS parameters must be confirmed by the IBP's own data. Contracts that require 100% availability are apparently the norm today due to competition, although obviously it will not be met in reality, so very occasionally IBPs will have to pay agreed compensation in cases of outage. The ability of IBPs to start offering service level agreements (SLAs) under corresponding QoS parameters coincided with operators' use of ATM in their transport networks. Under this technology the corresponding IP packets are transmitted over different 'virtual tubes', referred to in ATM terminology as virtual paths (VP). However, QoS guarantees only apply if the flow of cells received conform to the traffic parameters that have been negotiated. Such conditions require networks to shape their traffic at the border, just before handing over for transit or delivery. In ATM networks arriving cells fill a logical bucket which leaks according to specific traffic parameters, and these parameters form the basis for QoS contracts. The parameters can include: cell loss rate (CLR); cell time delay (CTD); cell delay variation 128 In many markets such options are purchased directly. Indeed, in some cases there are markets in which options are bought and sold. 129 One European ISP said in an interview that transit prices had dropped by 90% in the three years to March 2000. Another said that in Eastern Europe they had dropped by 50% between March and October 2001. 60 Final Report (CDV); peak cell rate (PCR), substantial cell rate (SCR), minimal cell rate (MinCR), and explicit congestion indication (ECI). Table B-1 in Annex B shows which of these parameters apply in regard to the five ATM Forum QoS categories. Operators have recently begun to implement a form of WAN IP-switched architecture under Multi Protocol Label Switching (MPSL). The adoption of this technology will result in some changes in SLAs that ISPs have with their transit provider. MPLS is discussed in Annex B. 5.4 Multi-homing When an ISP has a transit contract with more than one transit provider, the ISP is said to be multi-homed. This enables the ISP to send traffic up the Internet hierarchy through connections with different transit providers. For smaller and medium sized ISPs, multihoming was made economically viable by the development of BGP4 and subsequently by cheap and easily operated routing equipment that uses it.130 Figure 5-5 demonstrates a multi-homed ISP configuration. ISP(A), ISP(B), ISP(Z) and ISP(Y) are multihomed; ISP(C) and ISP(X) are not. Figure 5-5: Multihoming between ISPs IBP(M) IBP(N) ISP(A) ISP(z) End-users ISP(B) ISP(C) ISP(x) Secondary peering ISP(y) Source: WIK-Consult 130 See for example, BoardWatch Magazine, July 1999 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 61 There are a number of reasons why ISPs may choose to multi-home. The main ones appear to be the following: 5.5 • To ensure connectivity to the Internet in case one connection is disrupted, i.e. it works as a substitute for upstream service resilience.131 When congestion, accidents and outages inevitably occur, multi-homing improves average service quality for ISPs and ultimately for end-users.132 • It can assist in the optimisation of traffic flows, particularly in conjunction with BGP.133 Hosting, caching, mirroring, and content delivery networks In this section we explain the terms hosting, caching, mirroring and content delivery networks (CDNs). These are services provided either by ISPs or by content providers. Hosting is when a content provider builds a server cluster where it stores different WWW content like web pages and search engines. Web Hosting is the process of maintaining and operating the Web servers. Caching, mirroring and content delivery networks (CDNs) involve within-network storage of content which is primarily available from other network sources. All three are variations on a single theme which is to move content closer to the edges of the Internet. Their purpose is to lower transit costs for local and regional ISPs. They may also provide improved QoS through providing for a greater proportion of traffic to be localised, providing less strain on edge routers, which is where much of the processing is required in order to deliver packets to their correct destination. Content delivery services do not involve an agreement between the ISP and the content provider. A cache is a computer network that intercept requests from end-users to access or download content, such as web pages that are located on other networks. Rather than request the same page, say, a thousand times a day, a cache retrieves the requested content and stores it, and only periodically updates it. When the object is requested again the cache sees that it has it in storage and provides the object it has stored to the requesting end-user (or her ISP) and in so doing avoids transit charges for the ISP. For off-net objects that are most frequently requested, pre-fetching caches are programmed to download this content regularly from a distant website in anticipation of 131 See Huston (2001a). 132 We understand that round trip times for packets traversing a particular number of hops have reduced as a result of the new BGP4 protocol which was largely responsible for making multihoming commercially viable. 133 It can provide information useful for traffic engineering and capacity planning decisions where AS numbers are uniquely assigned to both service providers and multi-homed enterprises. See Packet™ rd Magazine, 3 Quarter 1999: "Design of Non-stop E-Commerce”. 62 Final Report requests.134 A caching service thus involves the ISP periodically download the most visited WWW contents to their own servers. The reduction in inter-network traffic that results from caching is said to be significant, with potential for considerable growth in the future.135 Figure 5-6: A visual depiction of caching IBP(M) IBP(N) Regional ISPs ISP(A) Local ISPs ISP(B) ISP(C) ISP(z) ISP(x) ISP(y) End-users Cache Hit? Cache Hit? Source: WIK-Consult Large IBPs have also provided caching to ISPs and content providers as a wholesale service, but as caching also competes with their core business which is selling transit services, we gather that there is now little interest on the part of backbones in providing caching services to ISPs.136 Rather, caching is mainly done at the level of regional or local ISPs.137 A diagrammatic representation of caching is shown in Figure 5-6. Let us explain by focussing on an end-user of ISP(x) who wants to get content from 134 More sophisticated caching techniques, such as satellite caching/content distribution, are being used by entities such as Edgix and Cidera. These services use very large caches placed in ISP networks that are connected to satellite networks. When one cache stores a new object, a copy of it is transmitted over the satellite network to all other caches. 135 Intel claims that a cache can reduce the amount of outbound bandwidth required by as much as 30% to 40% ("Caching for improved content delivery", 2000). According to EXPAND Networks, Web caching both reduces the response time for access to web content, and increases the average throughput by about 30%. 136 A large IBP told us that with the decline in the cost of bandwidth it prefers to use its network to fetch content that could be cached. 137 AOL claims to make extensive use of caches. 63 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks a content provider who is connected to the network of ISP(A). In this case a request for content may be held at the local ISP’s cache, or it may be held at the regional ISP’s cache; otherwise the request will go all the way back to the content provider’s site. In the case of a mirroring service, the ISP and the content provider agree to have the complete content accessible from the ISP’s remote servers. Such an agreement is typically necessary with this type of arrangement because there are ownership / intellectual property issues involved. In other respects it is the same as caching. The decision of the parties is based on the realisation that it is a profitable strategy for both of them. What differentiates mirroring from caching is that a mirror is held within the server of the ISP rather than as a separate network as is the case with cache. A mirror removes the legal risks as mirroring is done on behalf of the original site owner/content provider. Thus, firms like Coca-Cola may ask their ISP to provide mirror sites in Western Europe, Russia, Japan etc. As is the case with caching, however, mirroring is used by ISPs to store frequently requested items on their servers, thus reducing their transit costs and improving download times for end-users. As with caches, mirror sites are not commonly provided by IBPs as they compete with their core business. Figure 5-7 shows a diagrammatic presentation of mirroring. Figure 5-7: A visual depiction of mirroring ISP Backbones Local ISPs End-users Source: WIK-Consult Response Request Regional ISPs Content Mirror 64 Final Report Content delivery networks (CDNs) involve caches and mirrors placed on multiple networks in different regions, which are programmed to periodically update frequently requested items. A diagrammatic presentation of CDNs in shown in Figure 5-8. Figure 5-8: Basic features of Content Delivery Networks Content from Provider B Peering Connections ISP A ISPB Content from Provider C Content from Provider C Content from Provider A Sub-Networks / Backbones Content from Provider A ISP C Content from Provider B Source: Derived from material provided by WorldCom 5.6 A loose hierarchy of ISP interconnection Referring to our basic discussion of how traffic is exchanged among the main types of players which we introduced in Chapter 2, we now provide a more detailed discussion. IP networks that make up the Internet can be categorised into four groups: 1. The top layer comprising ISPs with large international networks, (sometimes referred to as Tier 1 ISPs, IBPs, or core ISPs). These networks may be based on own or leased infrastructure. Virtually all traffic exchanged between core ISPs is according to settlement free peering, typically occurring on a private bilateral basis. Core ISPs are very limited in number and largely for historical reasons, are mainly Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 65 centred on the USA.138 These networks also provide services to end-users, such as large corporations and important web sites (typically through private leased line services). Through their vertical integration into regional or local ISPs, some core ISPs also provide services to a full range of end-user customers. 2. A second layer comprising ISPs (i.e. smaller IBPs - sometimes referred to as Tier 2 and Tier 3 ISPs), have significant national and possibly cross border networks. These ISPs provide transit services for other than core ISPs. They also purchase transit from core ISPs, and may also have regional peering arrangements among themselves and with core ISPs. These Tier 2 and 3 ISPs usually also have a full range of end-user customers. 3. The third layer of the Internet comprises ISPs with some infrastructure (typically leased). They are regional or local in their presence. They peer among each other and may provide transit services to other ISPs, most likely forth layer ISPs. Most of their connectivity is provided through purchasing transit from upstream ISPs. 4. Fourth layer of ISPs have virtually no infrastructure of their own, but typically operate over the infrastructure provided by larger ISPs. These forth layer ISPs as typically very small service providers whose connectivity is solely provided trough purchasing transit. There appears to be no widely accepted definition of what distinguishes a Tier 1 from a Tier 2 ISPs. Indeed, even if there was an accepted definition the information needed to make the distinction is typically not available.139 As far as we can gather transit is purchased by all ISPs, although for the largest of them no transit will be purchased in the United States. For these core ISPs transit may still be purchased in other parts of the World.140 While the hierarchical structure of the Internet is a very loose one it would not be feasible to abandon this hierarchy as it would require each ISP to interconnect with each and every other ISP, i.e. each ISP would need to maintain a business relationship with every other ISP. It would require the network to be fully meshed. In this case each ISP would need routers that maintained full routing tables, and these routers would need much greater processing power than the vast majority of routers currently have. The costs of this structure, the cost of routers that would be needed to maintain full routing tables, and the cost of maintaining those tables, would require financial resources beyond what most existing ISPs would be prepared to support. 138 Indeed, while Tier 1 ISP are very active in other parts of the world, and some even have their head office outside the US, it can be argued that the core of the Internet is still located in the US. 139 In practice, it will not be obvious for many ISPs which group they should be placed in. For example, some very small ISP will have some infrastructure, which may make it difficult to decide whether they should be in ISP group 3 or ISP group 4. 140 One of the big IBPs of the world said in discussions that it purchased transit in about 12 countries, including Japan and Singapore. 66 Final Report To avoid this cumbersome and probably unworkable structure, the Internet uses the hierarchical addressing and routing system described in Chapter 3. Routers of nonTier 1 ISPs only have access to the limited customer addresses held by their own router and those opened to them by peering partners. For these ISPs, packets that are not addressed to recognised addresses must be sent up the hierarchy through a default router and to a transit provider with which the ISP has a transit contract. To avoid default routers sending packets to each other, router management needs coordination. This approach requires the top layer of ISPs to maintain core routers that do not rely on default routes. Usually if packets are encountered with addresses that are not recognised, these packet are dumped and an error message returned to the source. ISPs at the top of the Internet hierarchy must, therefore, maintain full routing tables in order that full network connectivity be maintained.141 This vertical structure economises on transaction and routing costs. It has, however, meant that the top layer of ISPs have been seen to be potentially in a position to influence market outcomes to their own commercial advantage.142 Recent developments in routing standards appear to have assisted significantly in undermining any market power that was held by top level ISPs and will have thus reduced competition concerns, while not fundamentally changed the hierarchical structure of the Internet. We discuss these issues further in Chapter 8 which addresses the topic of market failure. 141 While an increasing proportion of all Internet traffic is remaining regional, compared to a few years ago, due to the increased use of caching, mirror sites, and secondary peering, transit arrangements are important in order to provide vital network connectivity. 142 See Milgrom et al (1999). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 6 67 Empirical evidence concerning traffic exchange arrangements in the Internet In this chapter we aim to highlight different empirical aspects of traffic exchange on the Internet. Topics addressed are: firstly characteristics of Internet exchange points; secondly a classification of main Internet backbone players; thirdly empirical evidence as regards growth of the Internet, performance and traffic flows; fourthly an examination of the peering policies of selected ISPs, and fifthly some remarks on capacity exchanges. We focus both on status quo aspects and past trends. Throughout this Chapter the main geographical focus is on North America and Europe. We do not take account of Africa, Asia, Australia/New Zealand, and Latin America. 6.1 Characteristics of Internet exchange points In this section we focus on characteristics of major international traffic exchange points of the Internet. We primarily aim to provide information about: • The operators of Internet backbone nodes ("Who"); • The ownership of the respective resources at these nodes, and • The location of the nodes. Data on investment plans unfortunately are not publicly available. In this report we focus on public exchange points (neutral or network exchange points – NAPs). Most information about these exchange points is publicly available. Information about private exchange points is usually proprietary.143 6.1.1 Methodology and data sources Along with private peering points between ISPs NAPs are crucial elements of the Internet’s topology. NAPs offer connectivity both for regional ISPs and for IBPs. In theory central NAPs interconnect with the entire Internet since they offer the possibility to peer with the most important international backbone providers. Later in this Chapter we highlight the most significant NAPs in the USA/Canada and in Europe. The information provided is based on desk research and interviews of industry experts. Sources include: OECD (1998); TeleGeography (2000, 2001), and Boardwatch (2000, 2001). A comprehensive list of NAPs is provided at the EP.NET,LLC website (www.ep.net). More details are available on the exchange points’ homepages. The 143 We investigate the general guidelines for private and public peering in section 6.4. 68 Final Report interview partners relevant for this section represent in particular, Telecity, COLT, and DE-CIX. 6.1.2 NAPs in the USA and Canada To identify the most important NAPs in the USA and Canada we start with the IBPs in North America. Boardwatch (1999, 2000 and 2001) contains a list of the most important IBPs in North America. We adopt take this classification in our analysis below. The assumption is, that a NAP can be viewed as important if one or more of the IBPs of the Boardwatch lists of 2000 and 2001 declare this NAP as a major national and international peering point. By analysing the data in Boardwatch (2000) we have identified 17 internationally important NAPs.144 The following table contains the official name of the NAP, its location, the legal operator (who is not necessarily the technical operator), the homepage address, an indication of the profit status (non-profit (y for yes) or for-profit (n for no)), and the number of ISPs connected as of April 2001. It can be seen from Table 6-1 that the four official NAPs started by NSF in 1994 and built up in 1995, still play a crucial role in interconnecting international Internet traffic (Pacific Bell San Francisco NAP; Ameritech Chicago NAP; MAE East Washington D.C.; Sprint Link New York NAP, Pennsauken). Besides the NAPs located in the U.S. the TORIX and the CANIX NAP in Canada are important for U.S. Internet backbone providers. The NAPs connect between 11 and 123 members, with nearly half of them having more than 50 members. The majority of exchange points are run as profit oriented enterprises. They are managed by well known telecommunications companies like WorldCom (5 NAPs), PAIX.net, a subsidiary of Metromedia Fiber (2 NAPs), SBC (3 NAPs, 2 of them run by Pacific Bell), Sprint, Telehouse (each one NAP). Two of the most important US NAPs and one Canadian NAP are provided by ISPs´ associations for their members, with another one run by the research organization ISI. The US NAPs are located around the prosperous economic centres of the West Coast and the East Coast, e.g. New England and the Silicon Valley region. However, more and more regional NAPs are built. Annex C-1 contains information about 58 NAPs in the US and Canada which we have identified by Internet based research (EP.NET, homepages of exchange points) as of June 2001. The EP.NET website formerly run by ISI and now regularly updated by a private company contains a full link list to all NAPs worldwide. Sources also include TeleGeography (2000), OECD 144 For a complete overview of the companies who have access to these 17 NAPs see Annex C-1. 69 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks (1998), Boardwatch (2000, 2001) and Colt (2001). We note, however, that the Internet architecture is changing rapidly and additional NAPs may be added in the future. Table 6-1: Name of IXP Features of the most important NAPs in the USA and Canada (ordered according to the number of ISPs connected) Location (town, state) Legal Operator PAIX Palo Alto Palo Alto (California) Ameritech Chicago NAP Chicago (Illinois) CIX Herndon Herndon (Virginia) CIX Palo Alto Palo Alto (California) MAE East Washington D.C. MAE West PacBell Los Angeles NAP San José (California) Los Angeles (California) PacBell San Francisco NAP San Francisco (California) MAE East Vienna Vienna (Virginia) NY II X (New York International IX) New York (New Telehouse York) URL PAIX.net Inc. www.paix.net (Above Net Metromedia Fiber N.)** SBC/Ameritech http://nap.aads.net/ main.html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points Commercial www.cix.org Internet eXchange Association Commercial http://www.cix.org/ Internet index.htm eXchange moved to PAIX Palo Alto Association WorldCom www.mae.net/#east. Html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points WorldCom/ www.mae.net/#west. Html NASA Ames Pacific Bell http://www.pacbell.com/Prod SBC ucts_Services/Business/Pro dInfo_1/1,1973,146-16,00.html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points Pacific Bell http://www.pacbell.com/Prod SBC ucts_Services/Business/Pro dInfo_1/1,1973,146-16,00.html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points WorldCom www.mae.net/#east.html http://www.nyiix.net/ international and local IXP service Nonprofit # of ISPs connected N 139 N 123 Y 66 Y 66 N 64 n/y 60 N 59 N 59 N 57 (closing, ISPs move to MAE East) 42 N 70 Name of IXP Final Report Location (town, state) Seattle Internet Exchange PAIX-VA 1 Seattle (Washington) Vienna (Virginia) MAE Dallas TORIX Dallas (Texas) Toronto (Ontario), Canada Toronto (Ontario), Canada Los Angeles (California) CANIX MAE Los Angeles / LAP Sprint New York Pennsauken NAP (New Jersey) Legal Operator URL Nonprofit # of ISPs connected ISI www.altopia.com/six y 42 PAIX.net Inc. (Above Net Metromedia Fiber N.) WorldCom Toronto Internet Exchange Inc. www.paix.net n 30 http://www.mae.net/#Central www.torix.net n y 19 11 no public information NA NA WorldCom LAP: USC/ISI www.mfs data net.com.MAE http://www.isi.edu/div7/lap/ n/y Sprint http://www.sprintbiz.com/ind ex.html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points NA NA MAE LA is not accepting new customers NA Source: TeleGeography 2000, OECD 1998, Boardwatch 2000, Colt 2001, EP.NET,LLC, homepages of exchange points145 NA = information not available y = not-for-profit public Internet exchange n = for-profit public exchange Most of the regional NAPs in the US handle local Internet traffic in the big city centres, e.g. in Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, Seattle or Tucson. Especially in Texas several new NAPs have been founded in recent years. Some of the players in the Internet exchange business like WorldCom, PAIX.net, Pacific Bell, Telehouse and Equinix, have started to build a network of NAPs all over the U.S. This strategy allows the members of one exchange points to become members at several NAPs under the same conditions. In 2001 the importance of some U.S. international NAPs changed significantly.146 MAE Dallas gained 4 members and MAE West five. The traditional MAE East Vienna is closing down and does not accept new providers. The new MAE East, however, is proving to be successful with 31 IBPs connected. PAIX Palo Alto lost eight members in 2001, and the Sprint New York NAP lost four. San Diego NAP and Oregon IX are new NAPs with 3 and 1 IBP connected there respectively. 145 MAE (Metropolitan Access Exchange) is a trademark of WorldCom for their IXPs IXP = general expression for Internet exchange point CIX = commercial Internet exchange (but generally not-for-profit) NAP = Network/Neutral Access Point 146 See Boardwatch 2001, pp. 30-132 and Annex C-1. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 71 The landscape of Internet backbone providers also changed significantly between 2000 and 2001. New players arose with many connections at NAPs, for example, OptiGate Networks (11 connections), Cogent Communications (8 connections), Telia Internet (7 connections)147 and One Call Communications (4 connections). 25 of the 36 IBPs classified as important in Boardwatch (2001) have five or more connections to NAPs. OptiGate has the most NAP connections in 2001 (11), followed by Cogent, Epoch, and XO Communications (former Concentric) with eight connections, ICG, Quest, and Telia with 7 connections and C&W, Electric Lightwave, Multa Communications, Netrail, Teleglobe, Williams, and Winstar interconnecting at 6 international U.S. NAPs. Five connections are kept up by Aleron, AT&T, Broadwing, E.spire, Exite@Home148, Level 3, Lightning Internet Services, One Call Communications, ServInt, Sprint, and WorldCom. 6.1.3 Important NAPs in Europe North-American NAPs still play a leading role in the provision of Internet backbone services in other parts of the world. However, in some regions they are losing their importance. In Europe Internet traffic is increasingly being kept in Europe due in part to the development of a meshed network of European NAPs. In the present section we identify and classify the most important NAPs in Europe from the perspective of both North-American and European IBPs. This is done in several steps. Step 1: Identification of basic number of NAPs and their location Adding up the NAPs in Europe as identified by Boardwatch, TeleGeography, OECD and the EP.NET,LLC website, yields around 60-70 NAPs located both in Western and Eastern Europe, see Annex C-1. Figure 6-1 shows the cities in Europe where these NAPs are located. Annex C-1 suggests that in the middle of 2001 up to 125 ISPs were connected at European NAPs. 24 of these have 20 or more members, and 8 have more than 50 members. These NAPs are located in Amsterdam, London, Grenoble, Moscow, Frankfurt/Main, Vienna, Milan and Paris. 147 Telia Internet, Inc. was acquired in October 2001 by Aleron. Telia’s Internet network was ranked highest among all backbone Internet providers according to Boardwatch (2001) achieving better results than nearly 40 other backbones. Telia sold this subsidiary presumably because it was a loss making entity, see Dow Jones International News October 3, 2001. 148 In the course of the year 2001, Winstar and Excite@home have filed for bankruptcy protection under chapter 11. 72 Final Report Figure 6-1: Overview of cities with NAPs in Europe Helsinki Oslo Stockholm Saint Petersburg Edinburgh Riga Dublin Moscow Lyngby Perm Manchester Hamburg Warsaw Amsterdam Berlin Brussels Frankfurt/Main Luxemburg Darmstadt Prague Novosibirsk London Paris Bratislava Zurich Munich Bern Vienna Budapest Geneve Milan Grenoble Bucharest Zagreb Ekaterinburg Dnepropetrovsk Samara Madrid Lisboa Barcelona Rom Athen Cyprus Source: WIK-Consult (own research) Step 2: Taking account of availability of further information We start by assuming that a reasonable criterion for judging the importance of each of these NAPs is the number of ISPs connected. The membership figures represent the number of possible peering arrangements that new members could establish. Unfortunately, only 44 NAPs make information about their membership publicly available. In practice, the number is a little lower than this because there are a few exchange points for which the information could not be used. One reason for this was that the information was only publish in Cyrillic.149 A second reason applied to TIX in Switzerland which publishes AS-numbers only.150 As we have not collected empirical evidence to match AS-numbers and the respective carriers, TIX is omitted from the list. Third, the available information of IXEurope in Zurich does not seem to contain members connected to the NAP, but rather "partnerships". With these omissions, we have analysed membership information from a total of 37 NAPs.151 149 Due to our limited resources we have not invested in translation of this information, rather, we have omitted these exchange points in our analysis. 150 See section 3 for a discussion of AS-numbers. 151 We admit that by concentrating on the 44 and in turn on the 37 NAPs we are skipping a-priori relevant NAPs, e.g. MAE-Paris, MAE-FFM or Ebone NAPs. However, as public information is not available about their participants more information could only be collected by contacting each of these NAPs Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 73 Step 3: Classification of NAPs We have defined three different groups of NAPs in Europe. Those with: International or global importance, European importance, and regional importance. In order to assign a NAP to one of these groups we have taken as an indicator the structure of its membership. Thus, a NAP in Europe is defined to be of: • International or global importance if it has at least three U.S. IBPs connected;152 • European importance if five or more ISPs are connected which are either active throughout Europe and/or are U.S. IBPs and the number of IBPs falling into the latter category is limited to two, • Regional importance if it is neither of international nor European importance. The result of this classification procedure can be found in Table 6-2.153 The classification included in Table 6-2 does not take into consideration the size of the connected networks because of a lack of information about this.154 It refers only to the names of the providers connected and not to the exact (part of the) network and the address space of ISPs connected to each of the NAPs. If comprehensive information about Autonomous System (AS) numbers had been available, a clustering of NAPs on this basis would in all likelihood have provided a better indication of the most important NAPs. individually. This would be time consuming and the outcome a-priori is not clear. As we have only limited resources in the project devoted to the work package empirical evidence we decided to base our collection of data as regards nodes and edges in Europe on the 37 NAPs and their members. 152 We rely here on the IBPs provided by Boardwatch (2000, 2001). 153 The assignment of two NAPs might be a bit ambiguous: MIX in Milan is classified as international and of global importance in particular because AT&T, Digital Island (now Cable & Wireless), Global One and Concert (then a cooperation of BT and AT&T) are members. Espanix in Spain has as members (among others) AT&T, Cable & Wireless, Global One, BT and COLT. Companies with a NorthAmerican presence are of course AT&T, Digital Island/Cable & Wireless. BT and COLT in our view have a European focus. Thus, the assignment of MIX and Espanix depends on the assignment of activities of Global One (now part of France Télécom/Equant) and Concert. Even though both are not named as important North American IBPs we have assigned MIX to the category international and of global importance because both Concert and Global One have a European and a North-American focus, so the threshold value (three North American IBPs) is reached. This is however, not the case with Espanix which, thus, is classified as a NAP with European importance. 154 It should be noted that defining size is a non-trivial matter. There are different measures of size. For example, one could focus on the bandwidth (usually from 2 Mbit/s up to 2,488 Gbit/s) with which a member ISP is connected to the NAP. Alternatively, one could focus on the speed with which a member ISP is connected to the internal LAN (Ethernet-based) of the NAP. The Ethernet-technology usually differ between Standard-Ethernet (10baseX), Fast-Ethernet (100baseX) and Giga-Ethernet (1000baseX) solutions. 74 Table 6-2: Final Report Classification of NAPs in Western and Eastern Europe (as of May 2001) International and of global importance European importance Regional importance AMS-IX, Amsterdam, Netherlands INXS, Munich, Germany GNI, Grenoble, France LINX, London, UK BIX, Budapest, Hungary M9-IX, Moscow, Russia DE-CIX, Frankfurt/M., Germany FICIX, Helsinki, Finland LoNAP, London, UK VIX, Vienna, Austria Espanix, Madrid, Spain SIX-Slovak IX, Bratislava, Slovakia MIX, Milan, Italy MaNAP, Manchester, UK SFINX, Paris, France PIX, Lisbon, Portugal BNIX, Brussels, Belgium WIX, Warsaw, Poland NIX, Oslo, Norway L-GIX, Riga, Latvia SE-DGIX, Stockholm, Sweden CATNIX, Barcelona, Spain CIXP, Geneva, Switzerland Manda, Darmstadt, Germany NIX.CZ, Prague, Czech Republic AIX, Athens, Greece DIX, Lyngby, Denmark INEX, Dublin, Ireland PARIX, Paris, France NAP Nautilus, Rome, Italy LIX, Luxembourg BUHIX, Bucharest, Romania SPB-IX, Petersburg, Russia SIX-Z, Zürich, Switzerland World.IX, Edinburgh, UK CyIX, Cyprus SIX-B, Berne, Switzerland Source: WIK-Consult Unfortunately, to identify the AS numbers of the ISPs and IBPs of the world, and the position of the AS in the ISP’s network hierarchy, is information and resource intensive. Only a very limited number of NAPs publish information about the AS numbers of the ISPs connected to them on their websites. One alternative therefore is to search on the web sites of the ISPs and IBPs, respectively. However, in practice this provides only limited success. There is a search engine available containing a collection of all available AS numbers and an assignment of these AS numbers to ISPs/IBPs. However, one cannot derive from this source which geographical part of the network of a particular ISP is assigned which AS number. Thus, it became obvious to us that one has to gather the necessary information from the ISPs through personal interviews in Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 75 order to have the chance of establishing a sound data base based on AS numbers. Due to our limited resources in the project we have not put more resources into this matter. Table 6-2 suggests that 13 IBPs in Europe can be classified as international and of global importance. Moreover, there exist 4 NAPs with a European importance and 20 NAPs which in all likelihood only possess a regional importance in the area of Western and Eastern Europe. Analysis of the 13 most important NAPs in Europe Figure 6-2 displays the location of the 13 most important NAPs in Europe. Figure 6-2: Cities hosting the 13 most important NAPs in Europe Oslo Stockholm Lyngby London Amsterdam Brussels Frankfurt/Main Prague Paris Geneve Vienne Milan Source: WIK-Consult (own research) Table 6-3 gives an overview of features of the 13 most important NAPs in Europe, all of which are all located in capitals of European countries or other central cities. In contrast to U.S. or Canadian NAPs almost all of the NAPs are managed as non-profit organisations. Six are operated by associations of Internet providers, six are run by universities or research centres and only one is operated as a for-profit enterprise by a telecommunications operator (France Telecom). 76 Final Report AMS-IX (Amsterdam), LINX (London), both founded in 1994, and DE-CIX (Frankfurt/Main), established 1995, are considered to be the most important of the European NAPs. These three Internet exchange points are still growing. In terms of the number of members of each of the three NAPs, DE-CIX expected to have the most members during 2001. Table 6-3: Name of NAP Features of the 13 most important NAPs in Europe (ordered according to the number of ISPs connected) Location Operator URL www.ams-ix.net/ Nonprofit # of ISPs connected y 125 AMS-IX Netherlands, Amsterdam AMS-IX Association LINX UK, London London Internet Exchange www.linx.net Limited y 118 DE-CIX Germany, Frankfurt/Main Eco Forum e.V. (not-forprofit industry association of ISPs) www.eco.de y 75 VIX Austria, Vienna Vienna University http://www.vix.at/ y 72 MIX-Milan Italy, Milan MIX S.r.L. http://www.mix-it.net/i y 66 SFINX France, Paris Renater http://www.sfinx.tm.fr/ y 59 BNIX Belgium, Brussels Belnet – Belgian National Research Network www.belnet.be/bnix y 45 NIX Norway, Oslo Centre for Information Technology Services (USIT), University of Oslo http://www.uio.no/nix/infoenglish-short.html y 39 SE-DGIX (Netnod) Sweden, Stockholm Netnod Internet Exchange http://www.netnod.se/indexi Sverige AB with SOF eng.html (The Swedish Operators several locations Forum) y 39 CIXP Switzerland, Geneva CERN IX Point Wwwcs.cern.ch/public/servi ces/cixp/index.html two locations: CERN and Telehouse y 37 NIX.CZ Czech Republic, Prague NIX.CZ Internet Service Provider association http://www.nix.cz/ y 31 DIX Denmark, Lyngby UNI-C (partner of the Danish Ministry of Education) www.uni-c.dk/dix/ y 29 PARIX France, Paris France Telecom http://www.parix.net/anglais / n 25 Source: WIK-Consult research on the basis of TeleGeography (2000), OECD (1998), Boardwatch (2000), Colt (2001), EP.NET,LLC, homepages of exchange points Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 77 6.1.4 Additional features of European NAPs Local production conditions of a NAP Some of the NAPs are not located at a single site in a city, rather, they build metropolitan area ethernet systems that connect several sites. For example, LINX is located in 8 buildings all over London. In May 2001 DE-CIX opened a second node also located in Frankfurt. AMS-IX is also a distributed exchange, currently present at four sites in Amsterdam. Product differentiation of NAP operators Operators of the NAPs are seeking agreement from members to expand the range services available for their members to include, for example, security services (Computer Emergency Response Teams – CERTs), content control for the protection of children and young people, and other services that might be required by law, such as those concerning confidentiality of telecommunications. In addition, there are organisations that lobby in regard to issues concerning telecommunications regulation, law enforcement, content regulations, education and qualification of IT specialists, etc. Fees of NAPs Today NAPs are financed by flat rate charges levied on members. In the future experts suggest that this method of financing NAPs might be replaced by fees that are based on some measure of usage, such as traffic flows at a NAP. Other players like housing companies or Internet businesses do not appear to be interested in building up networks of non-profit NAPs similar to the existing NAPs run by ISP associations. Rather, housing companies seem to focus on offering private peering opportunities at their housing facilities and establish private Internet exchange points on a for-profit basis. They establish their own individual pricing schemes for such services. Cooperation between NAPs Today, existing NAPs that are run by non-profit ISP associations cooperate closely on a European-wide level. This cooperation has been assisted by the establishment of the association known as EURO-IX which was formed in spring 2001. The aim of EURO-IX is to establish a NAP membership for ISPs that covers the connection to several of the important European NAPs. In future it has been suggested that a membership fee may be introduced that covers the connection to several or all of the EURO-IX NAPs. Table 6-4 shows the founding members of EURO-IX. 78 Final Report Table 6-4: Founding members of EURO-IX (as of May 2001) Member IXP Location non-profit AMS-IX Amsterdam, Netherlands y BNIX Brussels, Belgium y DE-CIX Frankfurt/Main, Germany y LINX London, UK y MIX-Milan Milan, Italy y SE-DGIX (Netnod) Stockholm, Sweden y VIX Vienna, Austria y Source: EURO-IX Seven of the 13 most important European NAPs are members of the new association. The membership of EURO-IX is predicted to grow in the future. NAPs interested in a membership include AIX in Athens, CIXP in Geneva, PIX in Lisbon, LIX in Luxembourg, NDIX in the Netherlands (Enschede), ESPANIX in Madrid, MIX-Malta and the XchangePoint in London (which is a new for-profit enterprise founded by former LINX managers). 6.1.5 U.S. Internet backbone providers at non-U.S. international NAPs Connections outside the U.S. and Europe In year 2000, outside Europe and the U.S., American Internet Backbone providers peered only at a few international NAPs.155 Two of these NAPs are located in Canada, and four in Asia: • CANIX, Toronto, Canada, • TORIX, Toronto, Canada, • JPIX, Tokyo, Japan, • NSP/IXP II, Tokyo, Japan, • HKIX, Hong Kong, China, • Taipei, Taiwan. 155 See Boardwatch 2000, pp.32-151. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 79 In 2001 KINX in Seoul, Korea, was also used by U.S.-IBPs. The HKIX in Hong Kong gained 4 additional U.S.-IBPs. For reasons discussed below, the NSP/IXP II in Tokyo, the TORIX, Canada and the Taiwan-NAP were no longer frequented by American backbone providers.156 Connections to European NAPs Boardwatch (2000) identifies 39 U.S. Internet backbone providers. Only 10 peered at more than one of the following 18 international NAPs in Western Europe.157 Four of these NAPs are located in Germany, three in the UK and two in France: • AMS-IX, Amsterdam, Netherlands, • BNIX, Brussels, Belgium, • CIXP, Geneva, Switzerland, • DE-CIX, Frankfurt/M., Germany, • DFN, Berlin, Germany, • DIX, Lyngby, Denmark, • Ebone, London, UK, • Ebone, Munich, Germany, • ESPANIX, Madrid, Spain, • LINX, London, UK, • MAE-FFM, Germany, • MAE-Paris, France, • MaNAP, Manchester, UK, • MIX, Milan, Italy, • PARIX, Paris, France, • SE-DGIX, Stockholm, Sweden, • SFINX, Paris, France, • Vix, Vienna, Austria. 156 See Boardwatch 2001, pp. 30-132. 157 See Boardwatch 2000, pp.32-151. 80 Final Report In 2001 some of these NAPs lost their importance for U.S. backbone providers. From the 36 U.S. backbone providers identified by Boardwatch (2001) - three less than in 2000 – none of these peered at the following NAPs: BNIX in Belgium, DFN in Germany, MaNAP in the UK, Ebone London; Ebone Munich, and SE-DGIX.158 Information from year 2001 shows that U.S. IBPs are connecting at the following European NAPs: • AIX, Athens, Greece, • BIX, Budapest, Hungary, • FICIX, Helsinki, Finland, • MAE Paris, Paris, France, • NIX, Oslo, Norway • PIX, Lisbon, Portugal, • SIX, Bratislava, Slovakia, • SWISSIX, Zurich, Switzerland. The changes may reflect the growing importance of Internet services in Southern Europe and especially Eastern Europe. In 2001 significant changes occurred regarding the Internet backbone providers connecting at European NAPs. AT&T established 15 connections where it previously had no connection of its own, and Cable and Wireless also became a new player in Europe with 4 NAPs. Quest connected at 10 NAPs (+ 9 compared to 2000). Level 3 became a member at 9 NAPs (+ 5). In comparison, only a few providers gave up their NAP memberships. Multa, ServInt, Teleglobe, and Winstar reduced their connections by one. Only Lightning Internet Services gave up all its 6 connections in Europe between 2000 and 2001. 6.1.6 Additional features characterising a NAP The preceding sections have made clear that NAPs differ with respect to legal, organisational and geographical aspects as well as the number of member-ISPs. Other features which characterise NAPs which appear importance are as follows:. • The type of member-ISPs (e.g. as regards the size of the connected network); 158 Sometimes the changes might have their reasons in the NAPs peering policy. For example, at the Stockholm exchange you have to allow transiting. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks • The established peering agreements between members, and • Technical features (e.g. capacities at ports or within the LAN of a NAP). 81 Some for-profit Internet exchange points regard all information about their customers as confidential, including the number of members. Moreover, it is common for information about the size of the connected network not to be provided. The same is true for the capacity at ports. Websites of public NAPs rarely offer detailed information about capacities and traffic. In some cases there exist aggregated traffic information of the NAP relating to a day, a week or the last year. However, traffic information is not made public by all of the important U.S. and European NAPs we have identified. Likewise, concrete peering agreements at NAPs are classified as confidential information by almost all NAP operators and their member ISPs. 6.2 Main Internet backbone players In this section we identify important operators of Internet backbone connections and analyse supply-side structures in the Internet backbone market. As in the previous section we focus on the European and North American continent. 6.2.1 Basic features of the empirical approach In analysing arrangements for traffic exchange on the Internet we focus on the most important public NAPs in North America and on the international NAPs in Europe that are of global importance.159 Our assumption is that there is a strong preference for important Internet backbone providers to get connected to the most important NAPs in North America and Europe. Thus, an Internet backbone provider can be considered as important if it is connected to a pre-specified number of important NAPs in the worldwide market. In the following we initially concentrate on the European and then on the U.S. market. With respect to Europe we will proceed from a bottom-up perspective examining the international nodes of global importance representing a strategic position in the Internet backbone value chain. Concerning the U.S. market we will follow a top-down approach, i.e. we will rely on the empirical studies of the Internet backbone market contained in Boardwatch (2000, 2001). 159 For simplification in the following analysis we call these NAPs ”important NAPs". 82 Final Report 6.2.2 Internet Backbone Providers in Europe Our analysis takes into account the entire list of ISPs connected to the European international NAPs of global importance. This list comprises 760 NAP-members (as of May 2001) encompassing a variety of companies like well-known incumbents, entrants, online service providers, cable companies and many other enterprises of unknown classification. Most of the 760 are European companies, although there are a number that come from North America and Asia. Many providers are connected through subsidiaries or affiliates to the NAPs. To make the analysis easier we have firstly allocated subsidiaries or affiliates to the respective parent company, which we refer to as a holding entity.160 Secondly, we have only taken account of a holding entity if altogether the companies allocated to the holding have connections to at least four NAPs (threshold value).161 Following this procedure yields a total of 39 providers operating a variety of connections to international nodes of global importance in Europe (not necessarily to different nodes)162. If we take the main business focus and the country of origin as qualifiers these companies can be assigned to the following categories: • European incumbents (Belgacom, BT, Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom, KPN, Sonera, Swisscom, Tele Danmark, Telefonica, Telenor, Telia); • Companies which started as entrants into the European telephony market (the then Mannesmann, Tele2); • Backbone infrastructure providers and/or IBPs with headquarters in North America (AT&T, Metromedia Fiber Network, Level 3, PSInet163, Teleglobe, WorldCom, XO Communications); • Backbone infrastructure providers and/or IBPs with a headquarter in Europe (Cable & Wireless, Carrier1, Colt, Ebone/GTS, Energis, Iaxis164, KPNQwest, Tiscali, UPC); 160 We have assigned a company to another company if the latter owns at least a 51% share of the former. The latter company is then called parent company. 161 An example will clarify this: Cable&Wireless (viewed as a group) appears 32 times in the data base. With respect to the different NAPs the parent company and the subsidiaries/affiliates of C&W have 6 connections to AMS-IX, and 5 connections to LINX. 162 An example might be useful: At the exchange point in Milan Colt (viewed as a group) is connected by its Italian subsidiary Colt Telecom -Italy, but also by Colt International. 163 In 2001 PSINet filed for bankruptcy protection under chapter 11. 164 Carrier 1 announced insolvency in February 2002 and presumably will declare bankruptcy. Ebone/GTS announced insolvency in 2001. In October 2001 a share purchase agreement was announced with KPNQwest stating that the latter will acquire GTS Europe which owns and operates ebone and GTS’s Central European operating companies. Energis announced in February 2002 that with the exception of the UK, it would sell out of all its foreign participations due to financial problems. Iaxis has been under administration since September 2000; the acquisition by Dynegy Inc. (USenergy company) was completed in March 2001. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 83 • Companies with a focus on the provision of services for multi-national enterprises (Concert, Infonet); • Companies specialised in operating data centres (Globix), and • Others (ConXion, Easynet, Internext, Jippi, Magde.web, Via Net Works, Wirehub). Companies which have been omitted due to the above mentioned threshold value are incumbents (e.g. Matav, Telecom Italia, Eircom), entrants into a national European telecoms market (e.g. Albacom (Italy), Cegetel (France), Torch Telecom (UK)), European backbone infrastructure providers (e.g. Interoute), online service providers (e.g. Yahoo, CompuServe) and companies from Asia (e.g. Korea Telecom, NTT, Pacific Century Cyberworks, Singapore Telecom). In order to concentrate effectively on those Internet backbone providers which from a European perspective are most important, we have introduced as an additional criterion, and this is that a company must be connected to at least five important NAPs of global importance in Europe. This reduces the figure of 39 providers to 28 providers, which are shown in Table 6-5. Table 6-5: Important Internet backbone providers in Europe (minimum of 5 NAP connections to different international nodes of global importance in Europe) AT&T British Telecom Cable & Wireless Carrier1 Colt Concert Deutsche Telecom Easynet Ebone/GTS France Telecom Globix KPNQwest Level3 Magdeweb Metromedia Fiber Network PSInet Swisscom TeleDanmark Tele2 Telefonica Teleglobe Telenor Telia Tiscali UPC Via Net Works Wirehub WorldCom Source: WIK-Consult Summing up, as at mid-2001 there is only a relatively small group of around 30 providers that are active at the important nodes in Europe. Besides the large and well known backbone infrastructure providers and/or IBPs like WorldCom, C&W, Level 3, KPNQwest, Colt, MFN, there are only a small number European incumbents with an extended market presence in Europe, these being BT, DTAG, France Telecom, 84 Final Report Swisscom, TeleDanmark, Telefonica, Telenor, and Telia. In addition, companies like Tiscali and UPC are showing remarkable market presence at nodes all over Europe. 6.2.3 Internet Backbone Providers in North America The most important providers in the North American Internet backbone market can be discovered by referring to Boardwatch (2001). We have concentrated on companies with at least 4 "major U.S. peer interconnect points" as specified by Boardwatch. The resulting organisations identified are shown in Table 6-6. In this table we have also indicated the name of the parent company in case the IBP is a subsidiary or affiliate. Table 6-6: Important Internet backbone providers in North America as of 2000 (minimum of 4 NAP connections to different important nodes in North America) Aleron Multa Communications Corp. (Multacom) AT&T (incl. IBM Global Network) NetRail ( 360 networks*) Broadwing One Call Communications Cable & Wireless Optigate Networks CAIS Internet PSInet* Cogent Communications Qwest Communications e.spire Communications ServINT Internet Services Electric Lightwave Sprint Communications Epoch Internet Teleglobe Excite@home* ( partly AT&T) Telia Internet** Fiber Network Solutions Verio ( NTT) Genuity Williams Communications Group* ICG Communications Winstar Communications* IDT Corp. WorldCom Level 3 Communications XO Communications*** Lightning Internet Services Source: Boardwatch (2001) * under chapter 11 bankruptcy protection (as of April 2002) ** has been sold to Aleron in 2001 ***under chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as of June 2002. Referring to a study by Elixmann (2001) one can draw some conclusions as regards features of the American Internet backbone market. Firstly, a substantial portion of the important Internet Backbone Providers in the USA do not operate their own fibre infrastructure. Secondly, incumbent IXCs AT&T, Sprint and WorldCom are all important IBPs. Thirdly, nearly all of the companies which according to the length of their fibre optic network are "important" entrants into the market for fibre optic capacity in the U.S. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 85 are also important IBPs. At the time of writing the study this was true of Broadwing, Cable & Wireless, Level 3, Qwest, Teleglobe, Williams and Winstar. However, we also note that several players in the North American backbone market are having financial difficulties. As one can see from Table 6-8 five of most important Internet backbone providers in North America (Excite@Home, 360 networks, PSINet, Williams, Winstar) have already filed for bankruptcy protection under chapter 11. 6.3 Internet growth, performance and traffic flows This section focuses on empirical evidence as regards capacity and traffic flows. Firstly, we investigate the growth of the Internet route tables, secondly, the growth of AS numbers, the third sub-section is devoted to information about the development of Internet performance, and fourthly we look at traffic data. 6.3.1 Routing table growth Internet backbone routers are required to maintain complete routing information for the Internet. Thus, the size of the routing table entries has implications for router memory, the capacity and speed with which routers can perform calculations on routing table changes, and the speed with which they can perform their forwarding algorithms. Subsequently we focus on data from the web site of Tony Bates. This data rests on daily updates since the beginning of 1994. Daily empirical information as regards routing table growth prior to 1994 is not available. However, Semeria (1996) gives numbers for two points in time. He reports that in December 1990 there were 2,190 routes and in December 1992 there were 8,500 routes. If we compare this with the number of routes in the beginning of 1994 and roughly equal to 15,000 (as observed from the figure below), we can state that the number of routes has roughly doubled each year from the beginning of the 1990’s. Figure 6-3 displays the development of the number of routes in the Internet between January 1994 and November 2001.165 The graph’s zero point on the x-axis represents January 1, 1994 and numbers along the x-axis denote the days passed since then. Thus, the value 1,000 roughly corresponds to September 1996, the value 1,500 roughly corresponds to February 1998, the value 2,000 roughly corresponds to mid-1999, and the value 2,500 roughly corresponds to November 2000. 165 The reader is reminded that a route is a path to an IP address block. Further empirical data on route table growth is available from Geoff Huston. See also Marcus (2001a). 86 Final Report Figure 6-3: Development of the number of routes on the Internet between January 1994 and November 2001 Source: http://www.employees.org/~tbates/cidr.hist.plot.html From eyeballing the graph it is clear that Internet route table growth has gone through different phases. Between 1994 and roughly day 1,750, i.e. around the end of 1998, there were essentially fluctuations around a rising linear trend.166 Within this five-year period the absolute number of routes in the Internet has tripled yielding a CAGR of roughly 25%. In the period "day 1,750 to day 2,400", i.e. between the end of 1998 and the middle of 2000 the growth path exhibits an S-curve behaviour, i.e. there is a phase in the beginning where the growth rates increase followed by a phase in which the growth rates decrease.167 The point of inflection is roughly located around day 2,200, i.e. in the beginning of the year 2000. Thus, the route table growth on the Internet seems to be highly correlated with the Internet boom of the late 1990’s, the end of which can be identified with the downturn of the stock market in March 2000. Since mid- 166 Using econometric methods (e.g. stepwise regression) one could presumably identify further subperiods with a distinct growth behaviour. We will, however, not follow this approach here because we are only interested in stylised facts. 167 Obviously, the absolute number of route table entries is increasing throughout this period, however, the size of the increase, i.e. the second derivative in mathematical terms, varies over time. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 87 2000 until November 2001 the growth of the Internet route table seems to have slowed. Although there are significant short-term outliers, i.e. short phases where the absolute number of route table entries is increasing and then decreasing, recent data still shows that the underlying trend remains positive, however, recent growth is not as strong as from 1998 to 2000. Overall, the number of route table entries has roughly doubled in the nearly three year period from 1999 until November 2001, when there were about 105,000 route table entries. 6.3.2 AS number growth Figure 6-4 gives an overview of the development of the number of ASes assigned between October 1996 and November 2001.168 Figure 6-4: Development of the number of ASes on the Internet for the period October 1996 through November 2001 Source: http://www.employees.org:80/~tbates/cidr.as.plot.html 168 The graph is based on data from Tony Bates obtained from Marcus (2001b), who also presents empirical data on AS number growth from other sources. The graph is updated on a daily basis. 88 Final Report 6.3.3 Internet Performance This section concentrates on performance data. The information is taken from a publicly available source, namely from Matrix.Net.169 Basic features of the methodology Firstly, Matrix.Net claims that ISPs are chosen based on the proportion of routes each ISP provides as a proportion of for global traffic, and that the destinations are chosen in a way that is representative of the network. Secondly, devices called beacons (a beacon is a computer) which run on Matrix.Net's proprietary software, periodically conducts a scan,170 typically every 15 minutes, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. During a scan, a beacon sends data to each of the destinations of an ISP and records the time it takes to receive a response.171 Thirdly, the network data centre of Matrix.Net periodically pulls the stored information from each beacon and evaluates it. The Matrix:net web site contains continuously updated ratings of many ISPs in the world providing daily, weekly and monthly performances.172 The daily and hourly results are calculated as medians across all the destinations. Weekly and monthly results are calculated as means of daily results.173 Performance indicators Three different performance metrics are calculated by Matrix.Net: • latency, • packet loss and • reachability. These metrics are most significant from the end-user's perspective as regards the individual quality of service. Subsequently, we will focus on calculations of Matrix.Net which give a historical overview of the development of these indicators.174 In the following three figures five different graphs are plotted denoted as Internet, WWW, DNSTLD, NAP1000 and NAP100. "Internet" focuses primarily on traffic to global backbone routers and "WWW" focuses on traffic to web servers. "DNSTLD" refers to 169 Matrix.Net is a company that provides carriers and ISPs with performance metrics aiming at enabling them to write better QoS-based service level agreements with their customers. 170 Beacons are external to the network being measured. 171 Beacons use a specific protocol when they scan. However, protocols like the File Transfer Protocol, the Domain Name Service and the Simple Mail Transport Protocol are also used to measure traffic performance. 172 Results cannot be presented here and the interested reader is referred to the web-site: http://ratings.matrixnetsystems.com/. 173 The reason why the median is used for daily and hourly calculations is simply to make the calculations more robust against outliers. 174 The reader is referred to: http://www.matrix.net/research/history/decade.html. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 89 traffic related to Top Level Domain servers of the Domain Name System. The "NAP 100" list focuses on traffic to those nodes that at the time the list was created each had more than 100 paths through it but less than 1000. The "NAP 1000" list measures nodes that have more than 1000 paths through them.175 Unfortunately, the list has not been updated since September 2000. Latency Latency, or lag time, refers to the round trip delay between the time a beacon sends a packet to a destination and the time the beacon receives a response packet. Latencies are only computed for packets that receive a response. In the latency graph the x-axis denotes time of measurement and the y-axis denotes milliseconds measured. Figure 6-5: Development of latency on the Internet between 1994 and Sept 2000 Source: http://www.matrix.net/research/history/decade.html Figure 6-5 shows a downward trend in latency between 1999 and the end of 2000. In the early 1990’s latency on the Internet was much higher (400-500 milliseconds) than at the end of the period (around 150 milliseconds). However, the graph also shows that there are pronounced fluctuations around this trend. These include seasonal effects within a year.176 Both with respect to traffic going to the global backbone routers and 175 The number of paths relates to the feature of the BGP-4 protocol, see Minoli and Schmidt (1999). The number of paths in this context can be interpreted as a measure how well a node is linked to the Internet, i.e. the higher the value the more easily the node is accessible. In the subsequent graphs the figures in brackets denote the number of destinations taken into account. 176 This can be seen in more detail by clicking on the respective graphs for a single year within the period. 90 Final Report with respect to traffic going to the WWW servers, latency has been significantly lower since about 1998. 1997 was a year with big outliers on both sides, with latency relatively stable at around 300 milliseconds until the end of July. However, in the beginning of August 1997 it was very low for a short period. In September and November of 1997 latency reached a peak of more than 500 milliseconds. Latency with respect to NAP 100 and 1000 traffic as well as latency with respect to DNSTLD servers, has been measured for a much shorter period (mainly only for the year 2000). The graphs show that latency with respect to DNSTLD servers is higher (slightly below 200 milliseconds) and latency with respect to NAP100/1000 traffic is lower (around 80 milliseconds) than with respect to the other categories as measured at the end of the observation period. The difference between the latency as regards the NAP 100 and NAP 1000 traffic is negligible. Packet loss Packet loss is the percentage of packets sent to a destination that do not elicit corresponding return packets. In Figure 6-6 the x-axis denotes time and the y-axis the percentage of packet loss. Figure 6-6: Development of packet loss on the Internet between 1994 and Sept 2000 Source: http://www.matrix.net/research/history/decade.html Packet loss with respect to the Internet backbone as well as with respect to the WWW, remained really stable at between 20% and 30% between 1994 and the end of 1998. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 91 Since 1999 packet loss has declined sharply and at the end of the observation period was around 5%. Packet loss with respect to NAP 100 and 1000 traffic as well as packet loss with respect to DNSTLD servers has been measured only for a much shorter period (mainly for the third and fourth quarter of 1999). The graphs that at the end of the observation period packet loss with respect to DNSTLD servers was higher (around 16%) and packet loss with respect to NAP100/1000 traffic was lower (below 5%) than with respect to the other categories. On average, packet loss as regards the NAP 1000 is lower than the packet loss regarding NAP 100 traffic, although there are some pronounced outliers. Reachability Figure 6-7: Development of reachability on the Internet between 1994 and Sept 2000 Source: http://www.matrix.net/research/history/decade.html if a destination can be reached on the Internet it is reachable. The test is whether it responds to at least one of the packets sent to make this assessment. Per scan, reachability is expressed as a percentage of destinations that responded to at least one packet. In Figure 6-7, the x-axis denotes time and the y-axis denotes percentage points. Figure 6-7 shows that reachability remained relatively stable at a level of 70% to 80% between 1994 and the end of 1998. Since the beginning of 1999 there has been a very large improvement in reachability. As measured at the end of the observation period, it is higher than 95%. This is true both with respect to traffic to global backbone routers and with respect to traffic to WWW servers. Reachability with respect to NAP 100 and 92 Final Report 1000 traffic, and reachability with respect to DNSTLD servers, has been measured only for a much shorter period (mainly only since the third and fourth quarter of the year 1999). The graphs show that at the end of the observation period reachability with respect to DNSTLD servers is lower (between 85% and 90%) and reachability with respect to NAP1000 traffic on the average is slightly higher (95%-100%) than with respect to the other categories. Reachability as regards the NAP 100 is more or less equal to reachability as regards the Internet and WWW traffic. Summing up, the three graphs show that the performance of the Internet has made considerable progress in the past 7-8 years. Latency and packet loss have both decreased, and reachability has significantly increased. 6.3.4 Internet Traffic Estimates of Internet traffic for specific organisations can normally be obtained fairly easy. It is usual for organisations with their own networks (e.g. ISPs) to publish continuously over the day data from their core routers. This enables the data to be aggregated to get daily or weekly load curves. An example is given in the following two graphs (Figures 6-8 and 6-9) which contain data from the CERN network in Geneva. These graphs show that both with respect to daily and to weekly traffic there are clearcut peaks and troughs. Unfortunately, load curves from those IBPs we interviewed were treated as confidential. Figure 6-8: Daily traffic of CERN Source: http://sunstats.cern.ch/mrtg/ethernet-isp.html Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Figure 6-9: 93 Weekly traffic of CERN Source: http://sunstats.cern.ch/mrtg/ethernet-isp.html For the remainder of this subsection we discuss traffic growth on the Internet. This has been a topic of discussion in the Internet community for several years, as among other things, it has implications for addressing, routing and network planning.177 We will not be able to reach a final conclusion here, rather, we highlight the discussion. During the late 1990’s there was a rule-of-thumb which said that Internet traffic doubling every 90 days. Roberts (2001) mentions that since the Internet began growing aggressively in 1997 core ISPs had been experiencing an average per annum traffic increase across the core of 2.8 times, spurred by mainstream interest in the web. Lynch (2001), however, is very sceptical about these figures. He reports findings by AT&T Research Labs which concluded that Internet demand was more likely to doubling every year. In particular, the research findings indicate that there was no significant network that was increasing in size by more than 150% annually. In addition, Lynch mentions that another study indicated that the number of "active Internet users" in the U.S, (defined as those who access the Internet at least once a week), "declined by some 10% or 7 million people between January and October 2000".178 The study by Roberts (2001) reaches a very different conclusion. His focus is on Internet traffic in the U.S. His findings suggest that the Internet is not shrinking, nor does it appear to be slowing in its growth. In fact, the measurements by Roberts suggest traffic on the Internet has been growing faster as time goes by, increasing as much as four times annually through the first quarter of 2001. Roberts' data shows traffic has been doubling every six months on average across core IP service providers' networks, or in other words, growing by four times annually. Thus, Roberts' findings run 177 We discuss the public policy interest in these issues in Chapter 8. 178 See Lynch (2001, p. 4). 94 Final Report counter to those suggesting that the growth rate of Internet traffic has slowed recently.179 6.4 About Peering 6.4.1 Peering policies IBPs who are engaged in peering with other parties usually establish a variety of conditions in their peering contracts. Unfortunately, the detailed requirements making up a particular peering contract of an IBP are not usually published. Likewise, a comprehensive overview of an IBP’s set of peering partners and the scope of IP addresses that they are making available to each other is usually not published. However, many IBPs publish more or less detailed peering guidelines which form the basis of their peering contracts. Henceforth we call such guidelines the peering policy of an IBP. In this section we assess peering policies of a sample of major U.S. and European based Internet backbone providers. We take account of the following operators: Broadwing, Cable & Wireless, Electric Lightwave, France Télécom, Genuity, Level 3, and WorldCom. The empirical data on which this section is based was taken from publicly available information on the respective web sites of the companies.180 We highlight the main features of the peering policies of the carriers we have investigated and assess the commonalities and differences between them. For a detailed overview of the main peering features of these carriers the reader is referred to the tables in Annex C.. Two general impressions deserve mention at the outset: • There are Internet backbone providers whose guidelines for private peering are different from their guidelines for public peering (e.g. Level 3, France Télécom) and there are providers for which they are the same (e.g. C&W, WorldCom). • The peering policy of an IBP need not necessarily be the same across all networks (more precise: all Autonomous Systems) it operates. Rather, there can be different policies or at least different requirements for different networks. Peering guidelines 179 At the time of writing the report we did not have better data available to favour one view over the other. 180 We have contacted several more companies and are still waiting for response from some of them. It seems that some Internet backbone providers are reluctant to publishing their peering guidelines. We were told, for example, that the German branch of BT Ignite does not publish peering guidelines for Germany. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 95 often refer to different geographic regions. In our sample, the main regions which are usually demarcated are the US, Europe and the Asia/Pacific area.181 A more detailed analysis of the peering guidelines of the carriers in our sample reveals several different characteristics. Generally, the requirements for peering partners refer to the following categories: • peering link features; • routing; • network infrastructure, and • operational and informational features. Peering links which are to be established between peering parties are usually specified according to their number and location. Peering links normally have to be geographically dispersed, i.e. specific cities or NAPs are defined where peering has to take place. There are often further requirements as to minimum traffic volumes which have to be exchanged over the peering links and the minimum bandwidth of the peering links. Traffic exchanged is often further specified by limits on traffic imbalances.182 We observed service level requirements with respect to packet loss, delay and availability, these being QoS features discussed in Chapter 4. Routing requirements typically include the need for consistent route announcements and network operation using the CIDR addressing scheme at edge routers under the BGP-4 protocol.183 The consistency of route announcements implies that both parties have to announce the same set of address information at all peering points. As a consequence the party requesting peering can be obliged to filter routes at its network edges so that only pre-registered routes can be forwarded according to the peering agreement. The requirements for the requestor´s network infrastructure are usually defined according to the following features: • size of network (such as with respect to the number and location of network nodes); • bandwidth of backbone circuits, and • network topology. Internet backbone providers usually require the requestor’s network to be of almost the same size in comparison to their own network. This applies particularly for the peering 181 Some providers offer peering on a country specific basis (e.g. Cable & Wireless, France Télécom, WorldCom). 182 Usually, particular percentage quota are defined. 183 See section 2.3 for more details. 96 Final Report region in which the requestor is asking for peering. For this purpose, some Internet backbone providers define sub-areas of a peering region where the requestor is required to have nodes. For network efficiency purposes the topology184 of the requestor’s network is relevant as well. In most cases, a redundant and meshed backbone network is required. Operational features typically contain the provision of a network operation centre working 24 hours a day and 7 days a week to handle peering or congestion issues. Finally the peering requestor is required to have routes registered with the Internet Routing Registry or another registry and to reveal all kinds of more or less formal and network specific information (e.g. information on existing interconnection links). Comparing the different peering guidelines of the Internet backbone providers in our sample we can conclude as follows: • Most peering guidelines include a variety of minimum requirements which have to be met by the peering requestor. This applies above all to peering link features and network infrastructure requirements. • Routing, operation and informational requirements are often very similar. • Differentiated requirements for private and public peering can be observed especially in regard to peering link features and network infrastructure requirements. 6.4.2 New peering initiative in the U.S. During our interviews it was reported that Tier-1 ISPs in the U.S. (e.g. UUNet, Qwest, AT&T, Level 3, Sprint, Genuity) have recently agreed a new network peering solution in which will allow them to exchange traffic at a limited set of predefined locations. This clearly has similarities with the existing NAP model.185 The initiative appears intended as a rationalisation of current private peering (which involves about 80% of total traffic in the U.S.)186. Private peering is currently carried out very "decentrally", usually in a city where both partners already have a PoP (not necessarily at the same premise). Apparently connecting directly and in separate places, with every other Tier-1 ISP is considered to be too costly presumably because this model lacks scalability. The central feature of the new model is the collocation facilities that are being established. There are already 4 sites in use (1 at Equinix and 3 at Level 3) and the partners aim to establish 8 collocation spaces in the U.S. Every partner is using dark fibre to connect to the newly established facilities. No one will be 184 The term ”topology" shall denote the way a network is designed (e.g. a meshed structure, a tree structure etc.). 185 According to a senior technology manager, traditional (existing) NAP locations are unattractive for Tier-1 ISPs. He described them as costly and not providing provide any value to Tier-1 ISPs. 186 See Gareiss (1999). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 97 excluded from interconnecting at these locations, however, there is no obligation for any ISP to peer at this facility. As well as large ISPs, large content providers like Yahoo will likely also connect to these points, probably to three or four large ISPs, and switch traffic between them by using its own router. 6.5 Capacity exchanges Since the late the 1990‘s electronic wholesale markets for telecommunications services including both voice and data communications and in particular IP services have been established all over the world. The number of operators is thought to be around 10.187 Lehr and McKnight (1998) point out that the rationale for wholesale capacity markets is inherent in IP technology. The authors emphasize that "IP technology is unique in its ability to provide a spanning layer that supports the flexible integration of multiple applications (data, voice, or video) on a variety of underlying facilities based infrastructures (ethernet, leased lines, ATM, frame relay, etc)." Thus, the IP protocol provides the opportunity for a vertical disintegration, i.e. IP permits a separation of infrastructure provision from the provision of applications.188 This suggests that IP favours the entry of new types of non-infrastructure based service providers who need to purchase their required transport capacity ("bearer services") from infrastructure providers (these may employ different infrastructure technologies). Theoretically, one might expect capacity exchanges to provide a broad portfolio of services. Lehr and McKnight (1998, p.97), for example, mention short-term spot purchases and sales of bandwidth, switched transport, interconnect minutes, transponder time, transponder bandwidth, as well as the purchase and sale of long-term capacity such as leased lines, bulk transport, IRUs, transponders, forward contracts and interconnect capacity at PoPs, and they conclude that offers might come to include derivatives and other products. Empirical evidence, however, shows that so far the main services traded at capacity exchanges are bandwidth and switched and IP telephone minutes.189,190 187 Gerpott and Massengeil (2001) have identified 11 operators of private electronic market places for telecommunications capacity worldwide. Lynch (2000b) mentions 10 different operators. 188 This is in sharp contrast to the traditional circuit-switched networks which are driven by intelligence in the network. A the telephone network consists of two primary components: the transport function and the signalling or control function, and the first cannot act without the second. In this regard Denton (1999) comes to the conclusion that functions to be added to the network are defined by the owners of the network and limited by the nature of the network. Denton concludes that a "telephone company’s value proposition is governed by the simple idea that services are added to the network’s repertoire exclusively by the telephone company", see Denton (1999, section 1.4). 189 See Gerpott and Massengeil (2001), Table 1. 190 Bandwidth is traded for different routes, e.g. New York and Los Angeles. Bid and offer prices are usually quoted in US $ per mile/per month. Bandwidth is traded for different periods in the future. 98 Final Report We think it is fair to say that up until the beginning of 2002 capacity exchanges have not played an important role in the market, in contrast to what was predicted by several industry commentators in the second half of the 1990‘s.191 This statement is underlined by the recent bankruptcy of Enron.192 There are several reasons why capacity exchanges still are waiting to get off the ground. Gerpott and Massengeil (2001) report that it is difficult for capacity exchange operators to motivate carriers, especially the former transmission network monopoly owners, to participate in electronic capacity market places. In this regard Lynch (2000b, p. 38) reports that for carriers confidence that the market is not biased against them plays a crucial role, i.e. neutrality of the pooling point seems to be critical. Other arguments relate to the need for the participants to have confidence in the functioning and integrity of the physical delivery mechanism. A further issue is who is setting the rules for the trading, the exchanges or the market buyers and sellers. In particular, there is an issue of whether any standardisation is necessary and if so how much.193 Gerpott and Massengeil (2001) in addition point out that trust in the quality of the products traded and in the commercial settlements processes are critical determinants of success for the capacity exchange business model. 191 Lynch (2000a) reports that e.g. Arbinet, one of the biggest operators in the U.S. had revenues of under 1 mill. US $ in 1999. In addition it is mentioned that RateXchange, one of the biggest operators in the world had a total of about 1000 trades carried out until the mid of 2000. We have focused in May 2001 on deals at several capacity exchanges in the U.S. The result was that at some of these exchanges there have been consecutive days where no trade happened at all. 192 Enron’s roots rested on energy trading, however, they later also aimed at becoming an important player in the telecommunications capacity trading market. 193 Lynch (2000b) quotes an executive of a fibre infrastructure based carrier who says: "No carrier wants to standardise a competitive offering." Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 99 Part II – Public policy In order for the authorities to place regulations or mandatory requirements on the industry, or to financially sponsor a new Internet technology, it needs to be shown that market failure is occurring or is likely to occur which is costly to society, and which we can reasonably expect official intervention with a carefully designed scheme will provide a more efficient overall outcome. Part II addresses market failure issues relating to Internet traffic exchange. 7 7.1 Economic background to Internet public policy issues Economic factors relevant in analysing market failure involving the Internet 7.1.1 The basis of public policy interest in this study In this study we analyse the range of potential public policy concerns relating to the Internet backbone by examining whether there is a significant market failure problem, either existing today, or possibly arising in the foreseeable future. A little further below, we set out in brief the arguments in defence of this approach but before proceeding we note that other rationale exist for intervention by authorities, and these can be grouped into three classes, being those based on: 1. Message content, primarily decency, privacy, national security; 2. In order to redistribute resources among different groups in society, or 3. Because it is considered a merit good (or merit bad), i.e. there is agreement among a substantial sector of the community that people should consume more of something; a good, like cultural goods (or less of something; a bad, like drug taking.194 None of these issues, however, feature to a significant degree in this study. The two main reasons for this are: that these issues are focussed on end-users, and our study is not concerned per se with end-users and ISPs that serve them, and these three rationale for official intervention are mainly based on politics and this study is not concerned with political analysis. 194 We discuss 2 and 3 above, in the context of possible amendments to the scope of 'universal service' in the EU, in WIK (2000). 100 Final Report Markets have considerable advantages over other forms of economic organisation. They enable economic activity to be organised according to units (e.g. firms) where there is both information and incentives operating in favour of the organisation of firms and production processes based on efficient practice, and where outputs (economic production) are geared toward the needs of end consumers. Market-based (liberal) economies enable entities like firms to organise people and technology in a way that generates wealth.195 Non market-based systems are unable to do this nearly as effectively. The relative failure of the former Soviet-type economies shows that a system where administrators and officials organise this activity and choose the relative values of the outputs, is profoundly flawed. Indeed, the relatively wealthy position of North America, Western Europe, Japan and a small number of former colonies, compared to the rest of the world, is largely because the political and legal institutions that enable markets to flourish, are more developed in these countries than in other parts of the world. In liberal economies one of the main roles of the state is to provide a legal and regulatory framework which provides a high degree of certainty in property rights and enables economic agents (e.g. businesses, state entities, and individuals) to freely organise and engage in economic activities without fear of confiscation of assets or persecution. Indeed, these may be the most important factors that differentiate liberal economies from non-liberal economies. However, markets are not perfect in the way they organise economic activity. There are numerous cases where we know that market performance can fall well short of potential. Indeed, it is through understanding this 'potential' that economists analyse the performance of industries / markets, types of economic organisation, and regulations. This means that in analysing the performance of markets, economists will frequently look at the opportunity cost of market imperfections in terms of the hypothetical situation in which no market failure occurred. Even though most markets suffer from imperfections they typically operate more effectively than they would if they were regulated more closely. The main problem for the authorities in seeking to improve on existing market outcomes is that although we know markets do not operating perfectly, except for encouraging more competition it is usually not possible to know what we can do to improve their performance – the authorities rarely have the necessary information about what is going wrong and why. In a majority of actual markets enough of the advantageous features of market based competition are retained that regulatory intervention is unable to improve on the efficiency of the overall outcome. 195 Clearly this system is not perfect, in part because information asymmetries exist between management and shareholders. This enables managers to pursue agendas that are not in keeping with the preferences of shareholders, i.e. managers are themselves only weakly controlled by shareholders and more generally, by the requirements placed on them by law and by equity markets. The recent bankruptcy of ENRON appears to demonstrate this imperfection. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 101 In some cases, however, markets fail quite seriously. In such cases a state may decide to provide these goods or services itself, or it may grant firms access to an essential resource owned by a vertically integrated competitor. In other cases the state may set a tax or subsidy in order to adjust the economic behaviour of people or organisations in a way that corrects for the market failure.196 These are cases of state intervention to correct market failure.197 To understand the rationale for different forms of state intervention in markets, we briefly discuss the causes of market failure. There are three basic causes of market failure: 1. Externalities, 2. Market power, and 3. Existing laws and regulations. We discuss these in turn as they concern the Internet backbone. 7.1.2 Externalities Externalities are a benefit or cost, caused by an event, but not taken into account in the decision to go ahead with the event. Externality benefits occur when by my doing something, one by-product is that you are made better off. One such example is a bee keeper who assists nearby farmers by unintentionally providing them with a pollinating service. A daily event which involves externalities costs is second hand cigarette smoke, long term exposure to which (i.e. passive smoking) has been shown to significantly increase the risk of lung disease. The health cost of passive smoking is an externality cost. With all events that entail externality costs, those that choose to go ahead with the event (i.e. those who ‘benefit’ from it) are in part able to do so because they do not take full account of the costs (the externality) they are imposing on others. In the case of the Internet, there are at least 3 types of network externality that appear to be significant, and may affect industry structure, and the development of the Internet: (i) direct network externality benefits; (ii) indirect externality benefits, and (iii) congestion externality costs. 196 An example is a pollution taxes (e.g. tradable carbon rights), or a per passenger tax concession to a railway transport/passenger service because of the advantages it provides over other forms of transport in terms of pollution, congestion, and public health and safety. 197 There are other well documented reasons that the state or its agencies may intervene, such as regulatory capture and political favouritism, but we think all of these can be fitted into 2. above. 102 Final Report We discuss these in turn. Firstly, however, we discuss why network effects in the Internet are of interest to public policy officials interested in public welfare and economics of Internet traffic exchange. Network effects in the Internet are of interest to public policy officials for several reasons: • In a (tele)communications network there are significant network benefits such that if entirely unregulated, a single network operator will likely achieve a national or possibly global monopoly.198 There are two principal means by which this will occur: - through mergers and acquisitions, and - through the normal attrition of competition. Where merger rules that prevent monopolisation apply (such rules normally form part of competition law which is a form of regulation), monopolisation by merger / takeover is typically ruled out. Denial of interconnection as a strategy to monopolise is typically also a breach of competition law.199 • They are important to transit providers (or IBPs) when deciding on their competitive strategies regarding competitor IBPs and transit providing ISPs. We shall see below that depending on market circumstances they can provide: either a strong incentive for co-operation with their rivals in planning and building interconnection links, and in developing standards that enable seamless interconnection between networks; or can lead to non co-operation in interconnection or standards, suggesting an increasing level of market concentration, possibly also vertical integration, and the fragmentation of the Internet. • They have implications for the optimal pricing behaviour of ISPs, and we argue in this report that technical developments are needed that allow for new pricing structures that can provide for more effective congestion management, such as GoS pricing. This, we suggest will greatly contribute to ushering in the Next Generation Internet.200 198 In the EU most for incumbents obtained their monopoly position through legal decree and not through competition and takeovers aimed at capturing network externalities. 199 Where a firm has already obtained a certain level of market power, such as when network externalities are important and a firm has capitured a sufficient level of these to tip competition in its favour, competition rules alone are unlikely to provide an adequate anti-monopoly safeguard. In part this is due to the courts’ (and usually also the competition authority’s) skills being in assessing qualitative rather than quantitative evidence. More generally, in markets that lack competition, competition law tends to be an inadequate instrument for opening up markets to competition. 200 While the terms of reference of this study do not cover subscriber pricing issues per se, we have noted earlier in this report that the structure of prices needs to be similar at both retail and at a whole levels if the industry is to operate efficiently. Firms typically require unusually high returns if they are to bear the high risks such as those entailed in them having fundamentally different wholesale and retail pricing structures. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 103 7.1.2.1 Direct network effects Direct network effects occur when the value for membership increases with the addition of new members. Where future subscribers are not encouraged through altering their economic incentives to take this effect into account when considering whether to join the network or not, direct network externalities will generally arise. Direct network externalities imply an under-consumption of subscriptions, such that subscriber numbers will be less at prevailing prices than is socially optimal. When we refer to subscriber numbers we mean the network of users. It is commonly argued that it is to the benefit of existing subscribers for subsidised prices to be offered to those who are not prepared to pay the existing subscription price. The price that should be charged would be set at the level that internalises the unconsidered (external) benefits. This price is where the marginal social benefit equals the marginal social cost. There are a range of circumstances under which such subsidies would be unnecessary, and an analysis of these circumstances also reflects on the efficiency costs of flat-rate pricing in the Internet.201 In short, these are when network effects do not result in significant externalities. One such circumstance occurs under fairly general circumstances - where the network is privately owned. Indeed, a lack of rights of the type that come with ownership has been shown to be a primary cause of externalities, including those that represent the greatest challenges facing mankind, such as natural resource depletion and climate change.202 The incentive of network owners to internalise network benefits is demonstrated in Figure 7-1, where MC = the marginal cost of adding another subscriber. In many networks, including telecommunications networks, these costs can be expected to start rising steeply as additional subscribers become less urban. (We note that this is likely to be much less the case with Internet subscribers where a telephone line is already present.203 In Figure 7-2 below we address the specific case of the Internet204). In Figure 7-1 MB is the marginal benefit of adding an additional subscriber, and this can be shown to equal marginal revenue (MR). AB (average benefit) increases with the number of subscribers indicating a positive network effect. It represents the maximum price the network owner can charge, and is thus also the average revenue (AR) function. 201 In practice, the incremental cost of service an additional customer when neighbouring customers already receive a service, are only a small proportion of the average cost of providing service. For this reason very low prices can be offered to incremental customers, such as through the use of self select packages, but these will not normal require any subsidies. 202 Ronald Coase received a Nobel Prize in economics for his work in this area. See Coase (1960). 203 Another way of putting this, is that the incremental cost of providing Internet service, given that fixed wire telephone service is already provided, is very much lower than the stand-alone cost of providing Internet service. 204 In fact the situation tends to be complicated by the existence of significant common costs, such that the cost of adding one additional subscriber, given that neighbours are already served, is normally much less than is commonly acknowledged. 104 Final Report Figure 7-1: Network effects and private ownership Euro MC MB=MR P AB=AR P* 0 Q Q* Network participants Source: Liebowitz & Margolis (1994) {modified} While price at quantity Q* is less than the MC of adding subscribers, the MB to the network owner is greater than the price charged. i.e. the owner has the incentive to account for the network effects by charging less than marginal cost and thus the network benefit is internalised. The case of the Internet is rather different. It is made up of roughly 100,000 networks most of which are independently owned. This means there is no incentive for one ISP to reduce its prices in order to internalise network benefits, as it would give rise to very few benefits, and in any case, most of these would be captured by other ISPs and their customers. With fragmented ownership such as we have with the Internet, network effects can not normally be captured by the actions of individual owners implying that ISPs have no incentive to take account of them. 205 If we take for the moment Figure 7-1 with its particular cost and benefit functions, Q would be the level of network participation, P would be the price charged and there would be a network externality of value indicated by the lightly shaded area between Q* and Q. The quantity of network subscriptions would fall short of the socially optimal amount by 0Q*-0Q. On paper, this results suggests a strong case for official 205 As we shall see below, this may no longer be the case where one ISP has substantial market power. 105 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks intervention in the form of a scheme that has the effect of increasing Internet participation from 0Q to 0Q*. Fortunately, the underlying costs of the Internet are such that network externality benefits should be able to be internalised by ISPs acting individually. To show this we introduce uniform pricing (i.e. where everyone pays the same), and look at the social opportunity cost of a flat rate pricing structure. In this case the main reason for the Internet being able to internalise network benefits is that the marginal cost for an ISP of adding subscribers is very low where a telephone network is already in place. We show the situation in Figure 7-2. As in Figure 7-1, MB and AB apply to the network as a whole. Many costs are sunk before a network’s first subscriber has signed up. This means their average cost (AC) will be higher than MC, and it is AC that must (on average) be covered through the prices charged if the ISP is going to be commercially viable. Thus, no ISP could stay in business if it priced at marginal cost for all subscribers as it would not be covering its other costs. However, by pricing at average cost (P*) there are a number of potential subscribers prepared to may more than their own marginal costs to obtain a subscription but are not prepared to pay P* and who are denied a subscription where a uniform price = AC is charged. These potential customers are those between Q and Q*, and the externality associated with offering only one price to consumers is indicated by the shaded area between Q and Q*. Figure 7-2: Maximum Internet externality benefits for private subscriptions Euro 100% penetration MR=MB P* ACISP D=AR=AB P 0 MCISP Q Q* Qmax Network participants Source: WIK-Consult 106 Final Report To include these customers in a way that makes economic sense (to the ISP and to society), ISPs would offer a range of packages to the public which separate subscribers according to the characteristics of their demand. These are the same principles used by cellular operators (and increasingly fixed wire operators) in offering a range of tariff options (or packages) to subscribers.206 Competition between ISPs would nevertheless result in the average price charged being near P*. It does not appear that the Internet has yet reached the level of penetration that would result in ISPs looking to sign up these marginal customers. The Internet is still relatively early in its development phase, although we expect that development to slow during the current economic downturn.207 A flat-rate pricing structure can result in a premature stagnation in the growth of subscriber numbers by requiring those subscribers who may have little or no demand for Internet capacity during its most congested periods, to bear a share of the peak-load capacity costs. Flat-rate pricing implies that those who do not use the network at congested periods still have to pay as share of that capacity. This means that those with weak demand fpr usage at peak periods are carrying costs that ought to be assigned to those with strong demand at peak-usage. This is both inefficient and inequitable. A pricing structure that moved capacity costs onto those with the strongest demand for peak-period usage would boost subscriptions and improve overall economic welfare. We show the situation in Figure 7-3 in which we assume that the supply of capacity is sufficient to meet the entire peak period demand when there is no usage sensitive pricing, as is the case under flat-rate pricing. Thus, on the right hand side (r-h-s) the supply curve is vertical.208 The cost of that capacity is shown as Pc which can also be thought of as being the price of that capacity per subscriber. Under flat rate pricing, subscribers all bear the same proportion of this cost even though congested period session times are not demanded by many subscribers. For usage at non-congested period, the cost is effectively zero – i.e. there is no marginal cost involved in using idle capacity. For these reasons flat-rate pricing is inefficient and could also be seen as an unnecessary constraint on the growth in Internet penetration, especially once subscriber growth begins to stagnate. 206 In economics, packages designed for this purpose are known as separating mechanisms. 207 Another factor that suggests there are few network benefits that can not be internalised by the industry without the intervention of the authorities, is that virtually everyone in the EU who does not yet have a private subscription with an ISP, can still have access to the Internet (including Email) through: work access; public access points as typically occurs at public libraries; through Internet cafés, or though other peoples' private Internet subscriptions. Moreover, as the Internet is a nascent industry growing rapidly without subsidies, there is no need to consider the case for subsidies at this stage. Indeed, even in the long-term, we expect that the industry may be left to itself to offer the sort of tariff packages required to get marginal households to subscribe to an ISP. 208 We have assumed away congestion problems that typically arise when there is no marginal cost pricing mechanism. These are discussed in Chapter 8. 107 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Figure 7-3: Cost allocation under flat-rate pricing and the effect on penetration. Price \ cost Price \ cost of service (averaged) P Cost per subscriber Pc D ACa \ MCs 0 Qw Qf Number of subscribers (assuming flat-rate pricing) em an d Supply of capacity D em an d Access price \ cost Quantity of usage at peak-usage Source: WIK-Consult In the l-h-s of Figure 7-3 ACa represents the average cost of access.209 It also represents the marginal cost of service for all subscribers who do not demand sessiontime at peak use periods, i.e. they use spare capacity only. Where flat-rate pricing is used, the ISP will charge a price P = ACa + Pc implying a penetration rate of 0Qf , with 0QW - 0Qf representing those who are excluded but who would be prepared to pay the marginal costs they cause, i.e. 0QW represents the total number who could be served without any subsidies. 7.1.2.2 Indirect network effects Indirect network effects occur when the value of a network increases with the supply of complimentary services. When future suppliers of complimentary services are not encouraged to take this effect into account when considering whether to supply these services or not, indirect network externalities will generally arise. Indirect network 209 Figure 7-2 and the related analysis draws on the fact that the marginal cost of adding a subscriber, given that other subscribers remain 'connected' can be much lower than the average cost of access. We ignore these additional costs in Figure 7-3 as we are analysing another reason for the inefficiency of flat-rate pricing. By ignoring these, however, the welfare costs indicated in Figure 7-3 will be understated. 108 Final Report externalities mean that the supply of complimentary services on the Internet is less than is socially optimal. For arguments sake we can separate these into two sources: a) Indirect network externalities that follow directly from existing network externality benefits, and b) To maximise the social benefit of the Internet where each side of the market (endusers and web-sites) is complimentary to the other, firms would need to take these factors into account when setting prices. We consider (a) and (b) to be defined such that the benefits can be added thus: Total indirect network effects (INE) = (a) + (b), Indirect network effects (a) For those indirect network effects that are caused by the direct network effects e.g. the rapid growth in portals, we do not see that much more needs to be written about them in this report. Suffice to say that if there are significant direct network benefits that remain to be internalised, there will be a correspondingly lower number of services and websites operating on the Internet than is social optimal. However, we have already noted reasons why we believe the industry is capable of internalising most of these and thus we do not expect direct externalities to be the cause of high indirect network externalities. Indirect network effects (b) Because ownership is so fragmented, the synchronisation values are not internalised at present. Indeed, Laffont, Marcus, Rey and Tirole (2001a,b) (LMRT) note that under quite general conditions, ISPs have incentives to set prices to all their customers as if their traffic were "off-net". Among other interesting implications (which we discuss in Section 8.2.5) this suggests the unsurprising conclusion that indirect network externality benefits occur with the Internet due to the lack of co-ordination of pricing between both sides of the market. In particular, the sharing of costs between web-sites and end-users does not presently take account of the relative importance of web-sites in invigorating the virtuous circle. The approach that would be taken by a firm that monopolised the supply of access to both sides of the market would be to follow the Ramsey pricing principle in setting these access prices. This requires prices to be set according to the inverse elasticity of demand for access, and those elasticity measures would reflect the complimentarity existing between both sides of the market. In other words, the network provider would take account of the sensitivity of web-sites and end-users to price changes, and in addition also factor in the relative importance that each side has in invigorating demand on other side. A fundamental rationale behind such an approach is for the owner to maximise the value of the Internet. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 109 This clearly does not happen as present; the reasons appear straight forward – mainly, fragmented ownership of the Internet means that no firm is able to internalise the benefits of its actions. We discuss these issues as they relate to the Internet in more detail in Chapter 8. 7.1.2.3 Congestion Externalities The direct and indirect network effects discussed above are concerned with externality benefits. There is also an important externality cost that is featured in this study: a congestion externality. A congestion externality occurs where each user fails to factor into his own decision to use the Internet at congested periods, the delay and packet loss his usage causes other users. This occurs when there is no congestion price, i.e. when sending extra packets at congested periods is free. Similarly, for the interconnection of transit traffic or interconnection between peers, the lack of congestion pricing applied to firms purchasing interconnection means that the networks do not face any additional charge for packets handed over to another network during its most congested period. This means that networks themselves do not have sufficient incentive to efficiently manage congestion on their networks. Congestion externalities are a function of networks. In the absence of a marginal cost pricing scheme, or an adequate proxy for it, annoying levels of congestion will be difficult to prevent on the Internet. Congestion will tend to undermine the Internet's development in the area of real-time services provision, like VoIP, and will delay convergence and the development of competition between different platforms. The absence of congestion pricing is therefore a problem which we discuss in detail in Chapter 8. 7.1.3 Market power Firms have market power when they face too little competition or imminent threat of competition. Monopolies are an extreme example, although oligopolies are much more common and they too have market power even though they face some competition from rivals. As the most extreme example, monopoly is known to suffer from several severe problems that limit the economic benefits this type of market structure provides to society. • Monopolies supply less and charge higher prices than would occur if the industry was organised competitively. 110 Final Report • Monopolists tend to under-perform in terms of their own internal operations. Relative to competitive industry structures, monopolists are also thought to under-perform in terms of their uptake of investment opportunities.210 • Where monopoly is not secured by statute, monopolists (or near monopolists) often face some competitive threat on the periphery of their markets, and knowing this they tend to engage in a range of strategic activities designed to keep out potential competitors. Indeed, monopolies sometimes spend a great deal of time and money in trying to maintain or enhance their market power in ways that do not contribute to society’s economic welfare. However, the types of actions undertaken do not necessarily breach competition laws.211 In the case of oligopoly many of the same problems apply as for monopoly, but they are less severe. • In such markets oligopolies have some market power, i.e. they face a downward sloping demand curve. As a result market output tends to be lower and prices higher than would occur in a competitive market. • Oligopoly firms practise a range of strategies aimed at enhancing and protecting their market power. Typically these are not illegal.212 Where there is substantial market power, such as occurs with monopoly or dominance, and it persists in the long term, we can say that there is market failure. Problems with attempted monopolisation or restrictive trade practices are dealt with under competition law, through merger / take-over regulations, and through laws like article 81 of the Treaty of Rome. Where monopoly or strong market dominance already exist, however, and it is enduring (i.e. the market is not likely to face significant competition any time soon, say, from a new technology), competition law is limited in its ability to prevent such firms from taking advantage of their position.213 In such cases ex ante regulation may be justified.214 In analysing market power issues and the Internet, network externalities are highly relevant. The value of a network is heavily dependent on the number of people and entities connected to the network. Where networks are perfectly interconnected, network effects are shared among the interconnected networks independently of the 210 The cause is a lack of competitive and shareholder pressure on management. Shareholders have less information with which to judge whether management are performing their jobs well, and as a result monopolies and sometimes also dominant firms, tend to suffer from a significant level of underperformance by management and employees. 211 Examples include the strategic use of patenting, and lobbying those with political influence. 212 One of the most common are strategies aimed at enhancing product differentiation, say through branding / advertising. For an introduction to these see Tirole (1988). 213 For example, monopoly profits are not generally a competition law offence. 214 We discuss these issues in more detail in our study for the European Commission titled, "Market Definitions and Regulatory Obligations in Communications Markets". This study was undertaken with partner Squire Sanders & Dempsey L.L.P. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 111 size of each network's own customer base. In such cases competition between networks will focus on other advantages that each can provide to end-users, rather than the size of its customer base.215 These advantages would likely focus on such things as QoS, the range of services offered and price, although in oligopolistic markets firms will try to avoid head-to-head price competition. We noted above that left entirely to market forces and in the absence of regulation, a national or possibly global (tele)communications network monopoly would likely result due to the existence of network effects. Where several competitors exist, the way this would occur would be mainly through merger and takeover on the one hand, and the denial of interconnection on the other. In practice, however, merger regulations would prevent mergers and takeovers being used to monopolise the industry. But in an unregulated network, such as the Internet, interconnection would remain a possible weapon for the largest network(s); not a refusal to interconnect as such, since this would be too blatant and risk the attention of the authorities who might then seek to regulate interconnection, but possibly through deciding to only provide low quality (e.g. congested) interconnection. If this turned out to be a viable strategy for the largest ISP it could have regulatory implications. Researchers have recently made good progress in trying to determining the circumstances under which a network would likely benefit from such a strategy. This research was motivated by resent European Commission and U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) merger cases. It is not our intention to revisit the merger cases that were heard by the Commission and the DOJ in 1998 and 2000.216 However, some of the issues discussed in those cases are central to an understanding of the strategic options of Tier 1 ISPs that may involve the enhancement of market power, and are thus of interest to those involved in public policy development. Firstly, however, we provide a recap of Internet backbone industry structure. We have noted elsewhere217 that in recent years the Internet has become less hierarchical than it was, there having been a large increase in the proportion of total traffic that can avoid Tier 1 ISP networks. There are several reasons this has occurred. The main ones include: • Growth of termination through regional interconnection (e.g. secondary peering) – aided in no small part by increased levels of liberalisation world-wide; 215 For us to be sure that the standardised offering is welfare enhancing, however, we would need to be sure that stardardisation (or seamless interconnection) would not undermine technological development. 216 WorldCom/MCI Case No. IV/M.1069: MCI WorldCom/Sprint Case No. COMP/M.1741. 217 See Section 5.6. 112 Final Report • Growth in multi-homing, which has pushed Tier 1 ISPs to compete more vigorously with each other and with ISPs that have rather less complete routing tables; • Growth in other mechanisms that can reduce the levels of interregional traffic that are exchanged e.g. caching, mirroring and content delivery networks. These services complete with those offered by large backbones with extensive international networks; • A possible increase in the number of firms that are able to provide complete or near complete routing (i.e. Tier 1 ISPs). These are ISPs that do not purchase transit in the USA, and indeed purchase relatively little transit outside of the USA as they peer with most other address providers, and • Improvements in border gateway protocol (BGP) which make it economic for a great many ISPs to operate BGP where they did not do previously. Clearly, several of these points are correlated with each other. But taken together, they raise a significant element of doubt as to whether an anti-trust market exists at the ‘top’ of the Internet, even though the Internet remains a loosely hierarchical structure.218 But with perhaps 6 peers each providing virtually full Internet routing, and with a number of other ISPs able to terminate a high proportion of their traffic through peering relationships with others, including that which they are paid to transit, no single firm providing core ISP services presently appears to have dominance given any reasonable market definition.219 Nevertheless, the upper layer of the Internet comprises a number of very large firms with a multinational presence suggesting an oligopolistic structure. In such ‘markets’ each firm recognises that it has some influence over the environment in which it operates. Such markets offer rich opportunities for strategic interaction between rivals, and between up and downstream firms. In Chapter 8 below, we discuss the scope for strategic behaviour among ISPs that may have public policy implications. 7.1.4 Existing regulation It is not uncommon for existing regulation to enhance or create market power. The way it does this may be very simple, such as in licensing only one or two firms, or it may be much more complex involving, for example, spill-over effects running from a regulated market to an unregulated one. While neither Internet backbones nor Internet traffic exchange are directly regulated, regulations nevertheless surround this industry and have potentially far reaching implications for its development and the development of competition in the (tele)communications sector. 218 In order to establish this we would need to undertake a detailed analysis, among other things, of the degree of substitutability posed by the first 3 bullet points above. 219 However, in some specific countries or regions of countries market power problems may exist due to such things as a dysfunctional regulatory regime. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 113 To a considerable degree the Internet is built up with leased infrastructure, and a significant proportion of this infrastructure are leased lines rented from incumbent telecommunications operators. Leased line prices in most EU countries are not regulated directly, but regulators have been influential in enabling competition and in lowering the prices and improving the availability of leased lines, and thus in aiding the development of the Internet in Europe (and elsewhere). In this regard, it helps to see leased lines as an element in the full bouquet of services that share many costs (e.g. with switched services sold to businesses and households).220 In such cases the prices (and supply) of one type of service are not independent of the prices of other services, some of which continue to be regulated. This suggests that the supply (and to a degree the prices) of leased lines in Europe will be partly explained by prices of other services which may be determined by regulation.221 Since liberalisation which occurred in most EU countries in January 1998, leased line prices have tended sharply downward, especially in the case of international leased lines and dark fibre.222 This appears to be largely explained by fundamental changes in industry structure, from monopolised arrangements sanctioned by law and international convention, to a situation where there are now several firms providing international cross-border connectivity in virtually all Member States. As well as the international switched telephone network, these new networks are also providing connectivity to the Internet.223 Arguably the main regulatory problem that will begin to appear in the next few years will concern the different regulatory treatment of the PSTN compared with the Internet. In principle the move to ex-ante regulation based on significant and enduring market power in a defined anti-trust market should prevent regulations which benefit one type of competitor over another, e.g. VoIP compared to traditional PSTN voice services, but this need not be the case, especially during transition. We briefly discuss possible public policy / regulatory problems regarding this aspect of regulation in Section 8.5. 220 Cost modelling work on current network design suggests that switching costs are greater than fibre, amplifier and regeneration costs combined. See Lardiés and Ester (2001). Leased line prices may, however, be only loosely related to these costs. 221 Prior to liberalisation state owned operators priced certain services according to political preferences, and these pricing oddities continue to exist in many cases. 222 Data supporting this claim was presently in our report to DG Comp in WIK’s role as advisor for the official sector enquiry which took place between 1999 and 2000. This data is unfortunately confidential. 223 See Elixmann (2001) who provides data about cross-border networks in Europe. 114 8 8.1 Final Report Possible public policy concerns analysed in terms of market failure About congestion management on the Internet As the Internet is an end-to-end communications service, explanations for what is happening with commercial traffic exchange can sometimes be found elsewhere in the network. In regard to QoS and the Next Generation Internet, this may be equally true for either technical or economic reasons. In Chapter 4 and Annex B-1 we discussed technological issues that impact on commercial traffic exchange. In this section we look at the relevant economic factors relating to QoS. This includes a discussion of possible roles for pricing and demand management in improving QoS as well a discussion on claims that technological developments will avoid the need for demand management, in particular, that cheap bandwidth and processing power will overcome economic congestion (i.e. scarcity). 8.1.1 QoS and the limitations of cheap bandwidth In recent years several people have pointed out that with the rapidly declining cost of bandwidth and the rapid increase in computing power, "throwing bandwidth" at congestion problems can be a cost effective way of addressing QoS problems.224 Indeed, it has been claimed that this option negates proposals to introduce pricing mechanisms to control congestion, and may also negate those that would provide mainly technical means to discriminate between higher and lower priority packets, such as IntServ and DiffServ architectures, which we address in Annex B. Mainly because of falling costs of transmission and processing, the suggestion is that congestion on the Internet will be a temporary phenomenon, implying that there is no need to change the structure of existing prices. Evidence in favour of the "throw bandwidth at it" solution to congestion includes information that shows that bandwidth has grown much faster than traffic volumes225, with the inference being that after several more years of divergence in growth rates it will not matter that the priority of treatment of packets on the Internet is according to the order of arrival, and that low priority emails get the same QoS as do VoIP packets – all packets will get a QoS which is so high that the hold-up of messages where perceived QoS is very sensitive to latency and jitter, by those that are not, will have no material effect on the QoS experienced by end-users. In general, the argument is that the rapidly declining cost of bandwidth and processing will mean that more "bandwidth" will be the 224 See for example Ferguson and Huston (1998); Odlyzko (1998); and Anania and Solomon (1997) where the claim is less explicit. 225 See Odlyzko (1998). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 115 cost effective means of addressing QoS problems. In short, the claim is that all services will receive a premium QoS. While we tend to concur that on many occasions apparent over-engineering could be an appropriate option, we do not see that in general throwing bandwidth at congestion problems is the cost effective way to address QoS problems that stand in the way of VoIP and other applications that have strict QoS requirements. Indeed, even if we put the issue of the opportunity cost of this approach to one side, we are sceptical that this approach can sufficiently address the problem of congestion to enable an all-services Internet to effectively compete with other platforms like the PSTN. One reason for this is that demand for bandwidth is likely to increase enormously due to the following factors: • Increased access speeds for end-users (e.g. xDSL) in the short to medium term (and access speeds several times greater than effective xDSL speeds in the next 10-20 years); • If a QoS capable of delivering sufficiently high quality VoIP arrives, it will likely result in many customers (perhaps a majority of existing PSTN subscribers) moving their demand for voice services onto the Internet as in many cases it will likely have a significant price advantage; • When customer access speeds reach levels that enable HDT quality streaming video, the Internet will have converged with CATV and broadcasting, and likely demand for content (including from different parts of the world) will result in an enormous increase in the volume of Internet traffic, and • 3G and 4G mobile Internet access may also result in large increases in demand for the Internet, be it for voice, WWW, e-mail, file transfer, or streaming video. We have intimated in Section 7.1.2.3 above that without a marginal cost pricing mechanism there is no thoroughly accurate means of providing the proper incentives for ISPs to invest in a timely way in upgrading capacity. The pricing mechanism is the ideal way of connecting investment incentives with demand and in the flat-rate pricing world of the Internet where marginal congestion costs are far from zero, no such pricing mechanism operates. However, perhaps the most important issue is not whether it is possible to address QoS problems for real-time services by throwing bandwidth at the problem, but, whether there is not a more cost effective option to the combination of flat-rate pricing and overengineering the Internet: and if this option exists, whether it provides for a pricing mechanism which will have a more realistic chance of meeting the claims made for it (one that is able to better match marginal costs of capacity upgrades with marginal revenues, when QoS is degraded by congestion). 116 Final Report In our view a flat-rate "one-service-fits-all" Internet is very unlikely to be the arrangement that ushers in the next generation ‘converged’ Internet i.e. an Internet where WWW, streaming video, file transfer, email, and voice services, are provided to a price/quality that makes these services highly substitutable with those provided over other (existing) platforms. In short, we do not accept that falling capacity costs will result in the Internet being able to avoid "the tragedy-of-the-commons" problem226; i.e. the claim that supply will in practice outstrip demand. This is not in keeping with our experience with policies that make things that are not pure public goods, free at the point of delivery.227 Where this has occurred, experience shows that overuse / congestion typically occurs. Over-provisioning requires networks to be built which cope with an expected level of peak demand.228 This tends to result in lower levels of average network utilisation and thus higher average cost per bit. It is well known that Internet traffic tends to be very 'bursty' (demands high bandwidth for short periods). In larger ISP networks, the 'burstyness' of end-user demands tends to be somewhat smoothed due to the large number of bursts being dispersed around a mean.229 In order to provide a service that is not seriously compromised at higher usage periods by congestion, average peak utilisation rates on backbones of roughly 50% may be the outcome, with very much lower average utilisation rates over a 24 hour period. In the last 3-4 years there has been progress in setting up standards for IP networks that address QoS, e.g. Real time protocol (RTP), "Resource reSerVation Protocol" (RSVP), DiffServ, and IntServ. Services provided by these protocols are not yet commonly available on the Internet but may be implemented in the routers of some corporate networks or academic network structures like TEN 155, and even in some larger ISPs, although not yet between larger ISPs. We discuss these issues in more detail in Annex B. 8.1.2 Pricing and congestion Optimal congestion management can not normally be accomplished with technology alone (e.g. by finding more cost effective ways to utilising existing capacity, or by 226 "The tragedy-of-the-commons" is a problem of market failure which we discuss further below. 227 In cases where there are subscription fees but users face no marginal usage costs, outcome have been much improved, but without there being a large over-investment in capacity, some congestion is typically still experienced. 228 In practice even in PSTN networks blocking occurs during congested periods. In the Internet world this is done with admission control algorithms. 229 This effect is called stochastic multiplexing but it should be dealt with carefully. Some studies on Internet traffic suggest that the length of web pages and the corresponding processing and transmission time are not according to an exponential distribution but are better approximated by a distribution with large variance e.g. by a Weilbull distribution. Some authors have claimed that the distribution is Pareto resulting in a near infinite variance and cancelling any stochastic multiplexing effect. But these studies are based generally on data traffic in academic networks, which is not representative of traffic on the commercial Internet. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 117 throwing bandwidth at the problem). Therefore, technological development of the Internet should have as one of its goals to allow for mechanisms through which demand management can function. At present this is largely lacking on the Internet. Much of the reason for this is that Internet technology does not (as yet) provide sufficient flexibility through either providing the information needed that would permit ISPs to know when to profitably upgrade capacity, or by providing end-users with the opportunity to select other than a "plain vanilla" service. Under present Internet technology packets are accepted by connected networks without specific guarantee (although SLAs typically provide compensation where statistical ‘guarantees’ are breached) and on an essentially "best effort" basis. As such, packets carrying e-mail are treated the same as packets carrying an ongoing conversation.230 From the perspective of demand management, this equal treatment of packets according to best efforts is problematic on at least two counts: 1. The various applications that can be provided over the Internet require different QoS statistics of the network in order to provide a service which is acceptable to endusers (see Figure 4-3). E-mail, file transfer, and surfing all function adequately at present, even if annoying delays are sometimes experienced, most especially in the case of the latter.231 For VoIP, video conferencing, and 'real-time' interactive services, however, existing QoS - especially for off-net traffic - and that envisioned for the near future, may well be too poor to provide a service quality sufficient to make these services attractive enough for most end-users to be prepared to substitute them for services provided over traditional platforms, i.e. quality of service may be too low to put them in the same antitrust market compared to service provision over the traditional platforms. 2. End-users have different demands for service quality in regard to any particular service. For example, some consumers would be prepared to pay significantly more than they do at present in order to avoid congestion delays during web browsing, even though they are presently getting a benefit from a sometimes congestion delayed service. In the remainder of this section we discuss in more detail the lack of congestion pricing on the Internet and what implications this might have for the future development of the Internet, and what if any are the policy implications. In the section that follows this one we discuss optional grades of service (GoS). Various means have been proposed to address the poor economic signals which currently govern QoS on the Internet, and these range from voluntary control, to nonprice technological mechanisms such as admission control, to measures which use a pricing mechanism including various forms of capacity auction. A signalling channel has 230 After the adoption of ATM by large IP backbones it became feasible for them to offer QoS statistics in their transit contracts. 231 Most of these delays occur around the edges of the Internet, not on the Internet backbone. 118 Final Report also been proposed as a means of enabling the efficient allocation and metering of quality differentiated resources. In EU countries, dial-up Internet users are mainly charged by their access provider on a per minute / second basis, just as they are for making a telephone call. Indeed, for the access provider a dial-up session is very similar to a telephone conversation: the call is switched to the customer's ISP. ISPs typically only charge a subscription fee to Internet end-users, although in some cases the ISP does not charge the end user at all, but rather shares with the access provider the per call-minute revenues received from dial-up sessions, i.e. the price levied on the customer for the 'telephone' call to the ISP. This is sometimes referred to as the 'free' ISP business model.232 Per minute charges by the access provider mean that dial-up users do face a marginal price when using the Internet and this encourages end-users to economise on their Internet usage. In the USA and New Zealand it is typical that dial-up users face no usage sensitive prices and thus face no marginal price for their use of the Internet.233 In Australia, calls on Telstra’s network are charged at A$0.25 irrespective of the length of time the call takes.234 Dial-up users in Australia thus face a marginal price per session, but no marginal price for the length of the session. This means that it is very expensive to use the Internet to send a single e-mail, but much cheaper if many tasks can be completed during a single dial-up session. Pricing of this type provides an incentive for users to dial infrequently and to accumulate the e-mails they want to send and any web browsing they want to do, and to do it all during a single dial-up session. Indeed, with call forwarding onto mobile networks from a fixed line number, it may pay dial-up users to take up the option of keeping their fixed line open to their ISP for very long periods, even if they do not know in advance whether they will take up the option to receive and/or send information. The introduction of FRIACO and ADSL in EU countries seems likely to change the future situation in Europe toward more unmetered pricing for Internet usage. The ADSL modem splits the information into voice and data, only allowing voice to enter the access provider's switch, with Internet data being directed to the ISP normally over an ATM access connection between the ADSL Modem pool “DSLAM” and the first point-ofpresence (PoP) of the Internet. In this regard ADSL provides an "always on" Internet access service. EU businesses that have leased line access to their ISP already avoid usage sensitive prices. However, the migration of small businesses and residential uses 232 The reason the ISP can share in these revenues is that the call price is in excess of the access provider's costs in providing that service, which on average has lower costs than a normal telephone call, and yet it is charged at the same rate. 233 They do of course face a marginal cost of sorts, and that is the opportunity cost of their time – i.e. the next best alternative to being on the Internet, such as watching TV, or reading a study about the Internet. 234 This is roughly equivalent to 0.14 euro. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 119 to ADSL for which there is no usage sensitive pricing235 will significantly increase traffic on the ATM access connection and also on the Internet, and ceteris paribus also tend to increase congestion on the Internet.236,237 One of the problems which the Internet faces relates to the fact that with unmetered service (sometimes referred to as flat-rate pricing) end-users do not face any additional (i.e. marginal) price in sending extra packets. Where all packets are treated equally, congestion problems tend to occur on one hand, and network investment problems on the other. This is in large part because there are no economic signals to accurately match demand with incentives for investment in capacity. Where there is no limitation on subscriber numbers and users face no marginal usage costs, the Internet is being treated much like a public good. Pure public goods are not depleted with use; i.e. my usage of it does not effect the enjoyment you get from using it. This is clearly not the case with the Internet and we should therefore expect it to exhibit similar problems that plague those services that are treated as public goods, but are in fact not. These problems are popularly referred to as the tragedy of the commons, a problem which occurred when livestock farmers were allowed free access to common land on which they could graze their animals. The farmers took advantage of this offer with each one of them failing to recognise the effect that (apparently free) grazing of their animals was having on the ability of the others to do likewise.238 The result was over-grazing such that the commons became quite unsuitable for grazing by anyone. A similar problem has occurred with global warming, the loss of biodiversity, and the depletion of natural resources such as fish stocks. If usage remains 'free' and the resource can be depleted or over-used, then the rule is that either the numbers of users have to be rationed, or the total amount of usage must be restricted if the resource is to remain viable.239,240 In the case of the Internet the lack of an economic mechanism for congestion management results in a degradation of service quality for everyone. Improvements in software, hardware, and the declining cost of capacity have, however, provided all of us 235 Some ISPs have a step function in the price charged between 2 or more levels of usage (e.g. bits per month), but the level of usage in each category is so large that no marginal usage costs exist for the vast majority of users. 236 The core Internet is protected against overloading due to the limitation in the ATM access connection where most regional operators do not guarantee more then 10% of the peak capacity of the ADSL speed. This means that as more users share the ATM access connection actual capacity experienced declines. 237 Under such pricing arrangements end-users tend to be grouped together such that pricing tends to result in low users subsidising high users. 238 This phenomenon is also know as an externality cost. 239 Quotas are a common approach to these types of problems, and where trading in quotas is permitted, this tends to result in improved efficiency within the industry. Unfortunately quota numbers tend to be difficult to police, resulting in illegal over-usage. Quotas can also be systematically over-provided where quota numbers are not strictly set according scientific data, but are subject to political compromise. 240 The tragedy of the commons is the most common form of market failure. For example, it explains pollution, global warming, and natural resource depletion. 120 Final Report with level of service that is tolerable on most occasions. But most importantly, by applying the same network resources to all packets, Internet networks are holding back the development of real-time services over the Internet as these require a QoS during peak usage which is higher than can be delivered by the Internet when it is treating all packets with the same priority, whether they concern 'real-time' service or not. On the present Internet, packets containing email, file transfer, and WWW are randomised with those carrying VoIP and real-time interactive messages. Usage based pricing can in principle be designed to shift some demand from peak periods to other times, and can also signal to ISPs when demand is such as to make it economic for them to increase the capacity of their networks. The idea is that customers should ration their own usage during periods of congestion according to the relative strengths of each user's demand. For users with very weak demand (say, a willingness to pay for service during a congested period of zero, assuming they can use it during uncongested periods at no marginal cost to themselves), there is little benefit obtained by the user compared to the costs imposed. At times of congestion, however, the cost of sending extra packets would include the additional delay, packet loss and QoS degradation that are imposed on other users. When the Internet is uncongested,usage-based pricing is not helpful at all; it actually has a detrimental effect on economic welfare. At these times the cost of sending an additional number of packets is virtually zero. We say that the marginal cost of usage is zero, and it is a demonstrable economic axiom that under these circumstances a usage sensitive price is inefficient – it reduces economic welfare – flat rate pricing is optimal. More generally, to be economically efficient the structure of prices should match the structure of costs; that is, the way costs are caused should be reflecting in the way liability is incurred by the customer. The main classes of relevant costs are explained as follows: (i) Building an Internetwork involves fixed costs that do not vary with network usage.241 Flat rate pricing is the efficient way of recovering these costs. However, these costs can not be said to be incremental to any single customer, and so the most efficient flat rate pricing would involve different prices being charged to each subscriber, with those with strong demand paying more than those with weak demand.242 Indeed, if the seller's overall prices are constrained so that she makes only a reasonable return on her investments, the most cost effective 241 There are also development costs which are not incremental to single customers (such as software development). 242 This point was made in Figure 7-2 and related text. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 121 access prices involve prices being set according to the inverse elasticity of demand of each subscriber.243 On the basis of these costs no person should be charged a subscription price more than their willingness to pay, which could be close to zero. The idea here is that no one should be excluded by the prices which are intended to recover the costs of providing the basic network and software.244,245 (ii) There is also an initial cost for an ISP in connecting a customer to the Internet. These are mainly administrative costs, and as they occur on a one-off basis they should be charged in the same way if prices are to be efficient. As there is a positive incremental cost involved with each person's subscription, this will make up the one-off connection fee per subscriber, together with a return on any incremental capital associated with these costs. (iii) As the Internet becomes congested there is a marginal cost incurred when extra packets are sent, and this equals the delay experienced by all users at that time. In avoiding the congestion externality this implies, marginal cost pricing would have the following attributes. It would: (a) encourage users as a whole to economise on their usage during congested periods (for those with weak demand [e.g. a willingness to pay of zero] this means shifting their demand to other periods) and, (b) send a signal in the form of additional marginal revenues to ISPs to invest in more capacity when there is significant congestion.246 In regard to (iii), if the price is set so that it equals the margin cost of delay, then capacity can be said to be optimal. If a price higher than this can be sustained, and the network still becomes congested, and the incremental revenue earned is more than the cost of building an incremental increase in capacity, it will pay the network to increase capacity. Where there is no system that enables end-users to purchase a QoS they demand, it could be argued that there is also a cost associated with the absence of a market for real-time services, as is the situation presently with the Internet. With the telephone network, time-of-day has been used as an element of pricing. Subscription charges are the flat rate charge, with usage being charged on a per minute (or per second) basis, and varying according to the time of day. The idea with time-of- 243 This is commonly referred to as Ramsey Pricing, a full discussion of which can be found in Brown and Sibley (1986). 244 Given that there are positive direct and indirect network externalities, this price may in theory be less than zero as was suggested in Figure 7-1. 245 Remember that the cost of customer access (the local loop) should already be met by connection and subscription charges levied by the access operator. In the case of businesses using leased lines there will be some additional costs that are caused by the subscriber. 246 Crucially this is dependent on pricing structures between ISPs, a matter we have assumed thus far to be unproblematic. 122 Final Report day pricing is to dissuade usage by callers with low demand from the most congested period, encouraging them to shift their usage to a period when per minute charges are much lower. This is optimal because the capacity investments costs required to handle the traffic from subscribers with weak demand during peak usage, are higher than the present value of their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the capacity needed to satisfy that demand. Both time-of-day and call minute/second charges have less relevance for the Internet than for the PSTN. One reason for this is that peak usage of the Internet tends to be less stable in time, and thus time-of-day pricing is unlikely to provide a fully effective means of congestion management. It suggests that an attempt to raise session or usage prices at a particular time of day when the Internet is most congested is likely to miss periods of congestion, and even shift peak usage to another period. Indeed, in some cases, the congested period may be unstable even when there is no usagebased pricing. If this were the case, then in order for time-of-day pricing to work effectively as a congestion management device, pricing would need to shift simultaneously with peak usage. For such a scheme to be workable those using the Internet would need to know when the network was congested in advance of using it. This would appear to require some sort of timely feedback mechanism – perhaps a spot market. Another problem with time-of-day pricing is that the Internet is made up of a great many networks, and even in the same time zone peak usage may well occur at different times in different places. Moreover, an ISP providing transit to several ISPs, some of which have rather different peak usage times, suggests that different prices would apply at the same time of day to ISPs that are in the same market competing (on the margin) with other ISPs, even if their traffic / time patterns are not the same. This may raise competition neutrality concerns. A further problem is that unlike a switched circuit, which is rented exclusively by the paying party for the duration of a call, packets of data on the Internet share capacity with other packets such that costs are packet more than time related. Compared to a packet-based marginal pricing system, a proxy based on time-of-usage prices is likely to have depleted efficiency advantages relative to a packet-based marginal pricing system. To the extent that the proxy is not accurate the level of relative efficiency costs may be quite considerable. An elegant and potentially highly efficient solution to the marginal cost pricing problem with the Internet has been described by MacKie-Mason and Varian (1995) (M-V), and referred to as the "smart market". From our perspective, the main attribute of M-V's contribution is its pedagogic value in setting out the economic problems, in part through the solution they propose. Theirs is more a description of what the ideal solution would look like, rather than being a practical solution to congestion management (at least not practical under present technology). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 123 M-V's scheme would impose a congestion price during congested periods which would be determined by a real-time Vickrey auction. The way this would work is that end-users would communicate a bid price for their packets (perhaps expressed in Mb) just prior to beginning their session. The Vickrey auction design is known to provide a strong incentive for all end-users to communicate their maximum willingness to pay for the item, in this case outgoing and more importantly returning packets, i.e. it provides "the right incentives for truthful revelation".247 This is because the price actually charged to any end-user is not the price each person bids, but is the price bid by the marginal user – the last person to be granted access to the Internet under the congestion restriction.248 All users admitted to the Internet during this period pay the same price. Those end-users with a willingness to pay which is less than the market clearing price would not obtain access at that time, and would have to try again later. When the Internet was uncongested all bidders would be admitted and the price charge would be zero. An additional attraction of the "smart market" is that under competitive conditions it provides correct economic signals for ISPs to increase capacity. This would occur when the marginal revenues from admitting further users at peak usage are greater than the marginal cost of adding capacity, thus communicating a profitable investment opportunity. Network capacity will thus be maintained so that marginal revenue equals marginal cost, which is the most economically efficient outcome. The smart market may lack practically, but part of its efficiency advantages can be captured through grade-ofservice (GOS) pricing. 8.1.3 Grade-of-Service pricing The main problem currently with VoIP and 'real-time' interactive services is not that networks can not provide the QoS statistics needed, but rather, it appears that only a limited number do and these tend to be private IP networks i.e. intranets. ISPs providing public Internet services have too little incentive to develop VoIP services where packets containing voice conversations pass over other networks. We discuss technical aspects to the problem of off-net QoS in Chapter 4 and in Annex B.249,250 247 In 1996 William Vickrey received the Nobel Prize in Economics for his early 1960s work on the economic theory of incentives under asymmetric information. 248 The one exception to this statement is the marginal user whose WTP equals the market clearing price. 249 We gather that firms offering VoIP tend either to be using private IP networks in order to provide acceptable service quality, or are not using hot-potato routing in an effort to improve QoS. The later approach would appear to raise problems due to the non geographical nature of Internet addresses. 250 The very much higher bandwidth required for real-time video-streaming would in any case presently limit this service to end-users with sufficiently high speed network access. Indeed, the type of quality associated with HDTV may be beyond the capability of existing telecommunication access infrastructure for many end-users. 124 Final Report The M-V solution was published in the mid 1990s, and while this type of auction still has relevance for congestion management on the Internet, there have been many technical developments which have diverted interest away from the smart-market solution. Perhaps most significantly, technological developments will enable packets to be treated differently such that there may be multiple virtual Internets each with different QoS attributes, with packets being tagged according to the QoS option chosen. Even different GoSes for connection admission may by be introduced where users with strong demand for obtaining instant admission when requested have an especially high probability of getting access at any time they require, while users whose demand for admission is less strong would buy a service that provided a lower likelihood of obtaining admission at any time. ISPs could in principle tag packets according to the QoS they wanted from their transit provider, although the initial request would presumably need to come from the end-user in order to justify the higher prices that backbones would ask to transit or terminate packets that received a higher QoS. A system that enabled end-users to select among several different QoS the QoS that would apply to a particular flow of packets would result in their ISP billing them according to the numbers and types of tagged packets sent. By itself such a system would not be ideal if it meant that ISPs would still have to work with crude price structures. This would be the case if packets are differentiated according to the QoS provision requested, but there was no marginal congestion price. A subscriber may pay a premium to use the higher GoS/QoS possibly based in bits of usage as well as a monthly subscription, but she could then be able to send all her packets during peak usage, or perhaps at other times – there would be no difference in the price she would pay. This means that for each GoS/QoS there would be no explicit mechanism aligning the demand for the service at congested periods with ISPs' incentives to invest in capacity, making congestion avoidance by the ISP difficult, even though average revenues on such a network may be more than high enough to cover average costs. As the higher GoS service would be sold as a real-time premium quality service, there would be an incentive to maintain that quality, but over-provisioning would still be required due to the lack of marginal cost price signals. We would expect there to be a greater risk with this type of pricing structure that annoying and possibly commercially damaging congestion delays would periodically materialise. Such solutions to the congestion problem would therefore be rather incomplete, although they may offer sufficient refinement to enable GoS/QoS development and the widespread provision of real-time services on the Internet. 8.1.4 Conclusion regarding the congestion problem One of the main points to come out of this section is that one size does not fit all. There is increasing recognition that congestion management on the internet is an economic as Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 125 well as a technological problem, and a solution requires a combination of economic as well as technological developments. Greater use of pricing as a mechanism for demand management and as a means of enabling ISPs to provide improved quality to end-users is now an accepted vision amongst Internet design teams. While technological solutions that enable better demand management through such things as multiple GoS/QoSes appear to be some way off, considerable effort is apparently being directored toward finding solutions to these problems. In this regard, we have not observed a level of market failure that would warrant a recommendation for public sector intervention. 8.2 Strategic opportunities of backbones to increase or use their market power 8.2.1 Network effects While fragmented and often in competition with each other to attract subscribers and/or sell transit services, networks operating Internet infrastructure are also complementary to each other. This complementarity is facilitated through interconnection: i.e. the average value per user of a small network not interconnected with others (say with 1,000 members) is typically only a fraction of the average value per user of a network of interconnected networks such as the Internet, with hundreds of millions of members). This suggests that as the number of network members grows, the amount people are prepared to pay to be a member also increases. These are known as network effects. They are very common. Perhaps the most common thing that displays network effects is language. The network effect derives from the number of people who can directly communicate with each other.251 The smaller is a community of language speakers, the greater is their need for other languages. Internet subscriptions are similarly complimentary to each other.252 These network benefits have been referred to as direct network effects.253 As well as an estimated 550 Million subscribers,254 there are also thousands of firms and organisations providing information and services to these subscribers over the Internet, most commonly through web-sites. Network effects also drive growth in these services and in web-sites numbers. The larger the network, the more firms and organisations are likely to want to supply network accessories / add-ons / compatible services. These complimentary services are a spill-over benefit from the primary 251 The argument can also be made for machines which need a common interface or common software to communicate with each other. 252 Indeed, in terms of antitrust analysis they also form a "chain of substitutes" for each other, and although individually very few subscriptions are adequate substitutes for each other, each point of access is virtually identical with millions of others. 253 Liebowitz and Margolis use the term synchronisation value to describe network effects. See http://wwwpub.utdallas.edu/~liebowit/netpage.html 254 See http://www.nua.net/surveys/how_many_online/world.html 126 Final Report network (the Internet and telecommunications networks it runs over), and they are thus referred to as indirect network effects. They are, however, very important in explaining Internet development. They represent markets for complimentary products which in their growth tend to mirror the growth in the primary network, which tends to be most rapid through early to middle stages of its overall growth. This is when network benefits are increasing most. Examples of indirect network effects are very numerous. Where there are two computer operating systems, one used by 90% of all computer users, the other used by 10% of users, the complimentary range of software operating on the relatively little used operating system would be expected to be much less than those designed to run on the most popular operating system. One of the reasons for this is that the chances of commercial success for complimentary products, where most costs are sunk prior to any sales, is greater when supplying to the larger network. Another example of indirect network effects are spare parts for cars. Getting parts for cars of obscure origin is much more difficult than for a common make of Ford or VW. In regard to the Internet, web-sites are the equivalent of complementary software, or in the car example, spare parts. The indirect network effects concern products that typically compete with each other (i.e. are substitutes for each other), but have a complimentary impact on each other in that they contribute to the expansion in value of the network and result in increased demand for subscriptions and increased supply and consumption of complimentary products. Thus, while large ISPs compete to host websites, which compete between themselves (often for "hits"), web-sites are also complimentary to the value of the Internet. Imagine how much less interest there would be in the Internet if all you could do with it was send email, perhaps with files attached. The direct and indirect network effects that characterise the Internet can be described as a virtuous circle. Where networks are controlled by diverse interests they sometimes give rise to network externalities, which are benefits or costs not taken account of during economic decision-making. Where externalities exist, social benefits and private benefits diverge, and where this divergence is severe it creates a justification for regulatory intervention. We now look at public policy issues where network effects involving commercial traffic exchange on the Internet may also give rise to externalities. 8.2.2 Network effects and interconnection incentives The range of possible strategies that might interest Internet backbone players is immense, depending on such things as industry structure, the specifics of economic relationships between firms, the structure of costs, information asymmetries, and expectations about the future behaviour of firms, consumers, and regulators (government). This makes it impossible to outline all the strategies that might end up Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 127 being followed by ISPs. Potentially, if one element changes, then much of the future changes too. What economists do instead is try to identify a set of economic relationships that encapsulate the most important aspects of the industry and the way the participants compete or trade with each other. The techniques used to do this are commonly used in the analysis of industrial organisation, and these are referred to as models of games, or game theory. The idea is that the key incentives that motivate actions by players should be captured in dynamic models where the players plan their own actions with some understanding of the strategies available to each other. Players will plan their own strategies while second guessing those of other players, even though information about this is far from perfect. The great attraction of using games involving self interested players is not in predicting things;255 the nature of strategic interactions in complex settings makes it unlikely that the conditions specified in any particular model of a game will remain wholly appropriate in time, or indeed that the players will actually follow their best strategies.256 Events will occur that are not allowed for in the model and which will tend to obscure the predictions of a model, or perhaps invalidate the parameters of the model. However, models of games can be interpreted as predictions about what might evolve in the future if certain things happen. If these things did happen, then taken as a whole, models of games will have predictive power to the degree they have captured the essence of the underlying economic incentives and relationships of the players. However, this is not how these models are currently used. Rather, what games mainly provide us is insight into the behaviour of firms (decisionmakers), and markets, and how that behaviour (strategy) relates to particular industrial structures and relationships among the players. These strategies, or perhaps more importantly the rationale behind them, are frequently not intuitive to observers. But to the extent that models of games capture the essence of a market they provide us with insight into some of the main elements at work in shaping markets and industry structure and performance. While the Internet is a young, complex and rapidly changing industry, several authors have attempted to analyse strategic incentives / opportunities that might be important for shaping the Internet. We draw on this work below in setting out a number of economic relationships, and in discussing how changes in these relationships might work on the incentives / opportunities of the players, most especially where they potentially involve significant market failure and can thus give rise to public policy concerns. 255 Nor can they be used to select the best strategy that a firm should follow. 256 Although there is evidence that people do on average play their best strategy, the complexity of games would seem to be a cause of non-systematic errors in decision-making. See Mailath (1998) for information and analysis. 128 Final Report Of the many issues that were discussed in the 1998 investigation by the European Commission into the proposed merger between MCI and WorldCom,257 and which reemerged again in 2000 in the proposed Merger between WorldCom and Sprint,258 three of them stand out as potentially having the most significant implications in regard to the issues we are addressing in this section. They are closely related, all of them concerning interconnection. The questions posed relate to whether the merged entity would control a sufficiently large proportion of the Internet that it had: • An incentive to degrade the quality of interconnection (which can also include non co-operation in overcoming QoS problems with off-net traffic exchange); • An incentive to introduce proprietary standards (e.g. to differentiate on-net services from off-net services), and • The ability to impose interconnection prices that are significantly above the relevant costs involved. Fundamental in finding answers to these questions will be the importance of network effects and strategies that will improve the competitive position of one or more networks visa-vis the others. The discussion in this section provides information that is relevant to answering these questions. When there are a total of two networks that are interconnected, and the quality of interconnection is degraded between them (e.g. through there being insufficient capacity at the border, other off-net / on-net QoS problems, or perhaps interconnection is terminated), both networks initially face a demand reduction. In general, networks of equal size gain nothing by degrading interconnection they provide to the other. However, as the difference between the size of the two networks grows,259 it will at some stage become advantageous for the larger network (ISP(A)) to cease co-operation to improve off-net QoS, or to start degrading (or refusing) interconnection between the two networks. When this occurs we can say: The loss in the value of ISP(A)'s network due to the drop in demand following on from a loss in network benefits associated with lost or degraded interconnection is less than The relative gain for ISP(A) (the larger network) in terms of its competitive advantage over its smaller rival ISP(B). 257 WorldCom/MCI Case No. IV/M.1069. 258 Not yet published. 259 It is by no means clear how size should be defined, except that the approach to doing so would take account of a combination of factors, mainly the numbers of subscribers and the value each contributes to the overall value of the network. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 129 In this case ISP(B) will loose a larger proportion of its network value than will ISP(A) due to the degradation (or loss) of interconnection such that subscribers value membership to ISP(B) less than they do membership to ISP(A).260 Where one of the two networks is dominant the larger network enjoys a relative network advantage which increases with its dominance. Where there are three ISPs, however, say, one with 50% of the market, Crémer, Rey and Tirole, (1999) (CRT)261 show that under certain conditions the larger network may strategically benefit by degrading the quality of interconnection with one (but not both) of its two ISP competitors. The success of this strategy will be undermined to a degree if transit between ISP(B) (B from here on) to ISP(A) (A from here on) and visa versa were provided by ISP(C) (C). By not providing transit: • C has access to everyone who is connected (it is still interconnected to both A and B); • A has access to ¾ of all those connected, and • B only has access to ½ those connected. C's dominant strategy is therefore to tacitly collude with A as it is likely to be the greatest gainer from A's strategy. CRT's model provides interesting insights, although there are several features to it that call into question its general applicability. We list these in more detail in Annex D. CRT's paper has been very influential.262 The main conclusion that has been taken from the paper is that: a strategy of degrading interconnection by a dominant ISP may be profitable, leading to network tipping in favour of a dominant ISP. However, CRT did not expressly model the circumstances which needed to prevail for this conclusion to hold; they just showed that it was possible. Thus, non co-operation regarding connectivity between rivals is possible, but CRT's paper does not give us very much insight into the conditions under which it would be likely. In a recent paper by Malueg and Schwartz (2001) (M&S), the authors investigate the likelihood that a dominant ISP could succeed with a strategy of degraded 260 Rather than think of degradation or a lack of co-operation, it may be helpful to think of firms either agreeing to interconnect or not. The analysis is application in either case. We can say that if IBP(A) refused interconnection with IBP(B), IBP(A) would have a larger installed base than IBP(B), and if the value of connectivity is high for consumers, this can make IBP(B)'s business untenable in the long-run. 261 Crémer, Rey and Tirole acted as advisers to GTE and tabled their analysis of some of the possible strategic implication of the merger, on GTE's behalf. 262 It appears to have been important in the decision reached by the EU competition law authorities in 1998 and 2000. 130 Final Report interconnection such as was investigated by CRT. M&S extend CRT's model in order to investigate the ranges over which the various outcomes are possible (including interior solutions and various tipping outcomes, the latter occurring when customers start to move in increasing numbers to the larger network, and the incentive to do so increases as each customer transfers). CRT's paper focussed on separating stable from unstable outcomes, while the intention behind M&S's approach is to provide a more complete picture of the likelihood for success of a strategy involving degraded interconnection by the largest network. M&S investigate the possibility that global degradation by a 'dominant' ISP (A) may be profitable where there are three other smaller competing ISPs of approximately equal size. They then analyse the ranges in which a targeted degradation strategy can be profitable for A. We discuss the model and its conclusions in more detail in Annex D. The main points to come out of M&S's paper is that according to the features of their model which is similar to that of CRT: for degradation of interconnection with all other ISPs to be a profitable strategy implies - implausible values for the model's variables, and - that the dominant backbone has a market share263 of significantly greater than 50%. M&S also investigate whether a strategy of targeted degradation of interconnection might be profitable where global degradation is not. They follow CRT in assuming a market share of 50% for the largest ISP – the one seeking to strengthen its market position. The model indicates that: • targeted degradation is an unlikely outcome except in circumstances that are quite different to those existing presently in the Internet. For targeted degradation to be a viable strategy: • the value of network effects would need to be surprisingly high, and • the marginal cost of serving new customers would need to make up an implausibly high proportion of average customer costs. In M&S's framework it is also the case that degradation becomes less plausible as the numbers of ISP competitors increase. The work of CRT and M&S has quite general implications for the likely future development of the Internet, although due to the nature of this research we should not 263 Defined simply as the proportion of the total customer base. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 131 label them as a lot more than elegantly supported hypotheses. So long as no single entity gains a market share of about 50%,264 it appears that all major backbones have an incentive to pursue seamless interconnection. This implies that they have incentives to overcome off-net QoS problems, and to co-operate in the area of standards, rather than trying to develop an on-net services strategy to differentiate themselves from their main competitors. Indeed, these findings may also hold true when a single ISP has a market share of significantly more than 50%.265 We have noted in Annex D that the CRT and M&S models provide a simplified representation of the fundamental economic relationships that exist between backbone networks. This is the usual case with modelling. It is necessary to enable researchers to focus on the most important factors driving firms’ strategies and industry structure, from those that are of second order importance. One of the factors that was not addressed in detail by the two papers is the possible importance of the Internet's hierarchical structure and the way this has become looser in recent years, in regard to the ability of the largest backbones to play for control by partitioning off network benefits. Resent papers by Milgrom, Mitchell and Srinagesh (1999) (MMS), and Besen, Milgrom, Mitchell and Srinagesh (2001) (BMMS) seek to analyse the competitive effects of a looser hierarchy (as for example, has occurred through the growth in secondary peering and multi-homing), on the market for backbone network services. In both cases their approach is to look at the situation in terms of a bargaining game that focuses on two networks where the one that perceives it has a better bargaining position is prepared to get tough in order to extract as much of the benefits of a trade (i.e. interconnection) that it can. As with CRT and M&S, during disputes the relative QoS between networks is stated as a function of the relative size of each network's customer base. While service disruption would result in both networks loosing customers, the smaller network will suffer the larger loss. BMMS show that compared to a situation where alternatives to interconnection with core ISPs are not available (e.g. secondary peering, multi-homing, and caching and mirroring), the availability of these services reduces the bargaining advantage the larger network (A) has over the small network (B). This is because where networks are not of equal size an increase in the proportion of subscribers who can communicate over more than one interface has a greater relative impact on B compared to A, thus reducing A's relative advantage. The availability of secondary peering, multi-homing, and firms that move content closer to the edges of the Internet, reduces the larger network's ability to extract concessions from small networks during bargaining over interconnection. BMMS and MMS show that increases in the proportion of customers that have alternatives if one point of interconnection is degraded or cut, 264 On the basis of M&S, it will likely require a market share of over 60% before non co-operation in interconnection becomes a viable strategy. 265 See Annex D and M&S (2001) for detailed discussion. 132 Final Report are similar in their effect on market power to reductions in the market share of the larger network. Indeed, in a recent paper by Laffont, Marcus, Rey and Tirole (2001) (LMRT) the authors actually find that where competition between backbones is vigorous, backbones are (perfect) substitutes on the consumer side but have market power on the websites side of the market, large ISPs not being backbones may be able to secure interconnection prices with core ISPs at less than incremental cost if they can first obtain peering arrangements with sufficient other core ISPs. The reason this can occur is that having obtained peering arrangements with several backbones, an ISP can adopt a strategy of offering a core ISPs that has not yet agreed to enter into a peering relationship with the ISP, with a take-it-or-leave-it offer. If the core ISPs were to decline the offer it would lose connectivity with all those customers of the ISP who were not multi-homed, which would undermine its ability to compete with the other backbones. Under these circumstances core ISPs are likely to prefer peering relationships than customer transit contracts which are shown to give interconnection prices in line with the off-net pricing principle (discussed below). The elasticity of customer switching rates with respect to service degradation and the speed of this customer response will, however, tend to undermine the payoff to this strategy for ISPs. 8.2.3 Differentiation and traffic exchange Most firms try to differentiate themselves from their competitors, such as by offering services or goods that are marketed according to different attributes than those offered by their competitors. To the degree that a firm is successful in this it tends to lower the level of price competition.266 However, competition tends to restrict firms' ability to differentiate their products from others.267,268 In the late 1990s several authors suggested that core ISPs might seek to differentiate themselves from their rivals by offering additional on-net Internet services that were not available off-net. These might include, for example, the option for end-users and websites to choose from several different QoS options (not offered to other backbones), such as those presently possible on ATM networks.269 In this section we ask what the opportunities are for, say, the market leading core ISP to differentiate itself from rivals (i.e. increase its market power) in a way that concerns traffic exchange – the subject matter of this report. Differentiation that does not focus on traffic exchange or the exploitation of network effects are not discussed in this report. 266 See Salop and Stiglitz (1977). 267 See Shaked and Sutten (1982). 268 The degree to which firms can in practice differentiate their products from their competitors depends among other things on a combination of strategic and non strategic entry barriers. 269 See Annex B for details. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 133 Our focus here is concerned with the potential for several distinct services each displaying network effects, not being substitutes for each other, that are capable of being jointly provided over the Internet. The example we have in mind is basic Internet service with its bouquet of services (WWW, FTP, E-mail), which for argument’s sake we consider as one, and voice telephony, which is presently provided over an alternative platform - the PSTN - but can potentially also be provided over the Internet. As we have noted already, problems at network borders which we could abbreviate here as ‘the quality of interconnection’, is one reason why off-net VoIP service is not presently a good substitute for voice services provided over the traditional circuit switched network. If we assume that on-net VoIP is a near perfect substitute for the PSTN, and that voice communication is effectively seamless for Internet users between their ISP and the PSTN, there appears to be the potential for a more complex strategic role for interconnection than has been outlined by research so far. Might the market leading ISP (or coalition of ISPs) be able to use its larger VoIP (on-net) network to leverage a competitive advantage into the market for basic Internet service? Might this more complex scenario mean that network tipping is a more likely outcome than was identified by M&S? The scenario we have in mind is the following: under what circumstances would a market leading ISP find it profitable to degrade the quality of interconnection (or not cooperate with rivals to overcome off-net problems) to prevent off-net VoIP from developing, given that traditional Internet service would continue to be provided according to a "best efforts" QoS? Would this perhaps occur at lower market shares than is indicated by M&S in the case of interconnection degradation involving basic Internet service? A closely related question is whether the network advantage in providing voice service to its own subscribers would be a telling factor in convincing existing subscribers to move from other ISPs to the market leader, and for first time future subscribers to choose the market leader ahead of other ISPs? In deciding on the scenario to be modelled the following would seem to be relevant: • Where off-net QoS problems persist the voice service offered would be VoIP for onnet calls, the scope of which would depend on the ISP’s customer base, and for offnet calls the ISP would transport the VoIP traffic to a point where it was most cost effective for handing over to a PSTN network, from where a circuit would be established to the called party. Figure 8-1 shows the situation of the two networks. • The ISP’s customers would receive lower prices, especially for on-net calls, although most off-net calls would also be cheaper.270 270 One study of the comparative costs of service of providing VoIP at the local exchange, and the costs of PTSN service at the local exchange, suggests an approximate 15% cost saving. However this study does not take account of the economies of scope enjoyed by ISPs that would provide this service, nor does it take into account that existing PSTN prices do not reflect the underlying economic 134 • Final Report The above two bullets imply that the ISP with the largest customer base would have a competitive advantage as its network of lower priced on-net calls would be larger than that of its competitors. Figure 8-1: VoIP; ‘on-net’ and ‘off-net’. Internet PSTN ISP(A) needs complex routing policy, tunnelling & dynamic multihoming, & PSTN backup On-net call; QoS OK for VoIP ℡ ℡ ℡ PSTN switch ℡ ISP(B) HEWLETT PACKARD Off-net Internet call; ‘Best effort’ QoS too poor for VoIP ℡ ℡ Off-net IP/PSTN call HAC EWKA LETT P RD ℡ ℡ Router ℡ ℡ ISP(C) ℡ ℡ ℡ HEWLETT PACKARD ℡ H.323 / SIP gateway internet phone ℡ PSTN phone ENUM address translation Source: WIK-Consult Clearly such a strategy may be undermined by smaller ISPs deciding to co-operate to overcome the off-net traffic problem, thus enabling them each to more than match the on-net customer base of the leading ISP, assuming the larger ISP does not yet have a majority of the total market. This suggests that the market leader’s strategy would only last while its competitors were unable to overcome the off-net QoS problem. Knowing this the market leader may agree to co-operate with a limited number of rivals much as was analysed above by CRT and M&S when they considered targeted degradation of interconnection. Would the likelihood of network tipping feature differently than it does in M&S, and would it be a more likely outcome than is suggested by the results of M&S? costs and demand characteristics of all the various services. This implies that VoIP providers would potentially have a much wider pricing advantage than is indicated by the 15% cost saving figure found by Weiss and Kim (2001). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 135 Without actually devising the model and doing the research we can not provide a firm answer to such questions, but we suspect not. Figure 8-2: Degraded interconnection and non-substitutable services having strong network effects 1. Traditional Internet a) Network benefits (-) + b) (+) Competitive advantage: Comprising: (i) existing subscribers (ii) future subscribers + 2. IP Voice (on-net) c) Network benefits (-) + d) (+) Competitive advantage: Comprising: (i) existing subscribers (ii) future subscribers + Strategic interaction between 1 & 2 Source: WIK-Consult (own construction) A possible list of the main elements that would need to be considered by this research is shown in Figure 8-2. The superscripts represent whether the effect of degraded interconnection between the market leading ISP and one or more of its competitors, has a positive or negative effect on the leading ISP. In the case of c), all ISP’s voice customers would in any case be networked with all other voice subscribers, either onnet or through the PSTN, as is indicated in Figure 8-1. However, for the market leader its advantage is that its network benefits relate to the size of its on-net customer base. There will be some loss of value for the market leader from not having ubiquitous VoIP 136 Final Report (i.e. an off-net VoIP service) because off-net calls will be more expensive for its subscribers as calls will need to interconnect with the higher cost PSTN. The increase in its competitive advantage would appear to more than compensate for this loss however. Other forms of service differentiation by backbones will likely be pursued that do not have direct implications for traffic exchange, but will concern other features involving values being marketed to subscribers. These are not considered here. 8.2.4 Fragmentation and changes in industry structure If there are services that are only available on-net due to the persistence of QoS problems at borders, then installed bases of networks potentially become vital in the competitive process as websites and customers who wish to make use of these new services will ceteris paribus want to connect to the largest network. This would be a case where firms compete on the basis of the network benefits that they can offer their customers. Competition in such a situation tends to tip in favour of the network with the largest installed base. In this regard, failure to overcome off-net QoS problems when the next generation Internet becomes available on-net would appear to be similar in its effect to introducing proprietary and conflicting standards between backbones. Off-net QoS problems could also be seen as a form of degraded interconnection between ISPs. In such cases pricing strategies may well also diverge from what would prevail on a seamlessly interconnected Internet. Aggressive pricing, also know as 'penetration pricing' by the ISP with the most market power may be employed if it expects off-net QoS problems to persist into the era of the Next Generation Internet. Putting the fear of regulatory intervention to one side, the intention behind this strategy would likely be to monopolise the industry - a winner takes all strategy.271 If backbones’ expectations are that off-net QoS problems will persist horizontally and vertically (i.e. across backbones, and between backbones and their ISPs) after next generation features become widely available on-net, then their incentives may be to integrate with other backbone networks and with their ISP customers, with the primary purpose of re-configuring several networks into a larger network in a way that increases the size of the installed 'on-net' base for which next generation services can be accessed. Where such vertical integration activity began, downstream ISPs may well want to merge with each other so as to improve their negotiating position with backbones 271 This strategy sacrifices short-run profits for higher long-run profits, much as occurs with predatory pricing. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 137 wishing to take them over. If expectations of market players are that off-net QoS problems will persist following the availability of next generation services on-net, the short to medium term outlook for industry structure may be a very limited number of competing vertically integrated Internetworks comprising what were formerly local and regional ISPs and backbones. We could describe this outcome as fragmentation of the Internet, although as initially envisaged, connectivity regarding basic Internet services would still be universal. In actuality of course, backbone operators will consider what they expect various regulatory authorities would do if these events started to materialise. The outcome may depend on whether any individual backbone judged that, compared to a strategy that does not "cross the line" and trigger industry regulation, "going for broke" and thus attracting industry regulatory would provide it with a comparatively superior position. Under these circumstances strategies of other core ISP will have an effect on their competitors’ strategies. Depending on the specific circumstances that evolve, games of this type can easily degrade such that the core ISPs would not be able to avoid industry regulation, even though this may imply an inferior outcome for each core ISP compared to the case where none of them crossed the line and triggered regulatory intervention, but as core ISPs could not commit to follow a less destructive strategy they could not prevent the outcome.272 Thus, while network benefits of the traditional Internet may be more important for a large core ISP than sacrificing them for competitive advantage, we can envisage other situations involving incremental services in which the network with the largest on-net customer base for traditional Internet service may want to differentiate itself by offering a new service on-net only. Among other things, such a decision will depend on the ISP’s perception of the perceived additional value of the network benefits of the new service to end-users of the larger network. Would a new on-net service offer enough value to customers to give the largest network a competitive advantage over its rivals that was greater than the lost network benefits implied by an on-net only new service? Moreover, if this strategy paid off it may be possible that one (or other) core ISP would begin a policy of extending the services it provided on-net only, to services that are presently available off-net, such as web browsing. There are many other structural changes possible for the Internet, such as integration with equipment manufacturers, and perhaps also with a PSTN operator. The underlying rationale would need analysing, but leverage of traditional market power across markets, the use of ‘traditional’ vertical restraints, or the possible leverage of network effects, are all possible candidates. We have not addressed these issues in this study, as for one thing the issues involve so much more than commercial traffic exchange on 272 This type of game is know as "the prisoner's dilemma”. See Kreps (1990, pp 37-39) for an account of the prisoner's dilemma game. 138 Final Report the Internet. There are clearly many possibilities for research involving combinations of these motivations. 8.2.5 Price discrimination 8.2.5.1 Price discrimination between peers The only researchers we are aware of who have focussed on the issue of price discrimination between peers are Laffont, Marcus, Rey and Tirole (2001) (LMRT). Their model does not have multiple hierarchical layers of ISPs. In LMRT, ISPs serve end users, websites, and there is no transit traffic (i.e. ISPs are fully meshed). Moreover, interconnection between ISPs is modelled to show the factors determining the interconnection price. This is needed in order for the model to analyse interconnection pricing incentives. LMRT show that in a wide variety of circumstances where this aspect of the industry is already relatively competitive, the incentive of ISPs is to price interconnection to customers and websites as if these customers and websites accessed the Internet through other ISPs, i.e. as if all their traffic was off-net. LMRT call this the "off-net cost pricing principle". Moreover, the level of the interconnection charge (i.e. transport and termination273) determines how costs are distributed between both sides of the market – websites and end-users (senders and receivers).274 A higher or lower interconnection charge has a counter-balancing effect on the backbones revenues in that it affects backbones' incoming and outgoing interconnection costs in regard to off-net traffic (and in this way governs the distribution of costs between both sides of the market). A higher interconnection charge puts up website costs (as they have an outgoing traffic bias) and lowers the cost for end-users. An example will serve to illustrate: when one network (call it A) steals a website from another network (call it B), then A must pay B to terminate traffic to B's end subscribers, this being traffic that A previously did not see at all, i.e. subscribers and websites were on the same network. Moreover, A looses interconnection revenues that it previously received from B for terminating traffic sent by the stolen website (connected to B) to A's subscribers. Origination costs have also increased for A as a greater proportion of the traffic is now originated on its network. The same factors apply when: new traffic is generated, end-users demand for traffic is price sensitive (or elastic), and when several different QoS classes operate.275 In this 273 The vast majority of transport costs are born by terminating networks due to the operation of "hotpotato" routing. 274 Analysts commonly assume that end-users form a different group than do content providers. In practice this is not absolutely true as end-users sometimes post content, and visa versa. However, the adoption of this simplification does not invalidate the analysis. 275 LMRT use the following example to illustrate: "Suppose for example that backbone 1 "steals" a consumer away from backbone 2. Then, the traffic from backbone 2's websites to that consumer, which was previously internal to backbone 2, now costs backbone 1 an amount ct to terminate [where Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 139 way a higher interconnection charge shifts more of the burden onto websites and enables end-user subscription charges to be competed downwards. Perhaps counter-intuitively, end-users as a group prefer a lower interconnection charge and a higher end-user charge than would result from a competitive outcome, due to the indirect network benefits generated for end-users by websites who will be discouraged by a higher interconnection charge (see Section 7.1.2.2 on indirect network effects). Market-based prices fail to internalise this externality. However, where websites receive a lower interconnection charge they are less inclined to employ compression technologies. Thus, the existence of indirect network effects suggests that social welfare is increased with a lower interconnection charge, while proper data compression (also required to improve social welfare) requires a higher interconnection charge in order to send the correct signals to websites. While there are in principle public policy issues involved here due to the existence of externalities, multiple instruments would be required to address the problem, and these instruments are presently absent. In any event, we consider that the level of market failure resulting from these problems is unlikely to be high enough for intervention to improve on the market-based outcome. Moreover, even if suitable instruments were available, the Internet is still in its infancy and is developing rapidly, and under these circumstances the level of market failure would need to imply very large losses in economic welfare before public policy involvement could be recommended. Indeed, LMRT's analysis suggests that increased use of micropayments (a price charged by websites or embodied in online transactions) can reduce the divergence from welfare maximisation that occurs with the interconnection charge being unable to perform all tasks required of it. Such micropayments may well be developed by Internet players in the near to medium term. When ISPs have market power, LMRT show that while their interconnection prices obey the "off-net pricing principle", they can nevertheless earn higher profits by differentiating themselves and thereby weakening price competition between them. We discuss aspects of differentiation by ISPs in Section 8.2.3. To show why off-net pricing would still apply it is useful to first look at the situation assuming that end-users are insensitive to price changes (demand is inelastic). When websites subscription demand is price inelastic the interconnection price that ISPs charge each other to accept off-net traffic ct = co + c", and co ≡ the cost of origination, and c" ≡ the cost of transport] but generates a marginal termination revenue a; the opportunity cost of that traffic is thus ct – a. And the traffic from backbone 1's websites, which costs initially co for origination and a for termination on backbone 2, is now internal to backbone 1 and thus costs c = co + ct; therefore, for that traffic too, the opportunity cost of stealing the consumer away from its rival is c - (co + a) = ct - a. A similar reasoning shows that stealing a website away from the rival backbone generates, for each connected consumer, a net cost co + a: attracting a website increases originating traffic, which costs co, and also means sending more traffic from its own websites to the other backbone's end users, as well as receiving less traffic from the other backbone (since the traffic originated by the stolen backbone is now on-net); in both cases, a termination revenue a is lost." (Laffont et al 2001, p8). 140 Final Report for termination276 has the same characteristic as when the ISP market is competitive; it simply governs the way costs are shared between websites and end-users. More likely is the case where the demand for subscriptions by websites is elastic (or price sensitive). Websites profits then depend on the interconnection charge (a) with a lower a increasing the opportunity cost of serving end-users, thus requiring higher prices for the receipt of traffic. This lower interconnection charge lowers the cost of serving websites (they are now more profitable to serve) and ISPs price usage to them more aggressively such that websites are now in an advantageous position. In summary, LMRT’s model suggests that the reduction in the price a enables ISPs to obtain more rents from usage charges levied on end-users, some of which are past onto websites. The socially efficient outcome, however, suggests a higher interconnection charge a. When end-users are also price sensitive and ISP have market power, subscription charges are also effected. LMRT's analysis suggests that even if ISPs have market power, the pricing of a is again determined by the "off-net pricing principle", with excess profits to ISPs coming by way of mark-ups on subscription charges. For price discrimination between networks to be sustainable the evidence in LMRT’s paper suggests that competitive pressures acting on ISPs would need to be weak. Where the market is competitive LMRT show that under a wide range of fairly general conditions, the incentives acting on ISPs are for them to price traffic according to the "off-net pricing principle" i.e. as if all traffic were off-net. The suggestion is that so long as competition is present, backbones will not succeed with a strategy of on-net / off-net price discrimination. More generally, LMRT's analysis suggests that where core ISPs are relatively competitive, interconnection prices will not be used by them as a strategy for gaining advantage over their competitors, such as, through developing on-net services which are not available off-net, or by differentiating between on-net and off-net traffic. In practice, the level of market failure seems likely to be more significant than is suggested by LMRT’s results. Reasons for this include: 1. The existence of direct and indirect network externalities in a multi-firm environment implies that these effects will not be internalised, as would be required for welfare maximisation. 2. Ramsey pricing requires that both sides of the market are considered when setting prices so as to minimise the loss of trade resulting from prices being above (or below) marginal cost.277 This will not normally occur in a multi-firm environment.278 276 Remember that "hot potato" routing means that the terminating network faces both termination and transport costs. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 141 3. Where ISPs have some market power, as is likely to be the case among core ISPs, a level of on-net / off-net price discrimination is normally possible, and this will lead to a network advantage based on size, implying network externalities and network tipping.279 End-users and websites, and those that sign up to the Internet in the future, will be drawn to the network with which they can get the cheapest service, and where networks charge differently for on-net and off-net traffic, this will be the network that keeps the greatest proportion of total traffic on-net. As in actuality the structure of interconnection charges between core ISPs and downstream ISPs differ between peers and between clients, we think this provides weak evidence that the interconnection prices charged by core ISPs are different. This suggests opportunity costs similar to those associated with market power, i.e. a level of market failure. 4. Third degree price discrimination in the interconnection charge a is required so that no end-user or website is excluded where it brings more benefits than costs.280 Where competition exist, however, the level of price discrimination required to accomplish this is not possible. Only a monopolist would be able to undertake this level of price discrimination. 8.2.5.2 Customer price discrimination The question arises as to whether we should expect a dominant vertically integrated core ISP to price discriminate by charging (or imputing) its own on-net ISP services a lower price than it sells transit service to others. Perhaps the main point to note in trying to answer this question is that independent ISPs buying transit have other options available to them, such as caching, mirroring, secondary peering, and most importantly, multi-homing - now a viable option even for small ISPs.281 For this reason we do not see that the largest vertically integrated backbone would gain an advantage with this strategy. This is not a question addressed directly by LMRT as their model has no explicit role for transit. Our intuition suggests to us that extending the model to include transit interconnection would not add much additional insight in this regard. One insight that looks likely to come out of the model extended to include a competitive market for transit, is that to the extent that transit and peering provided the same service, it looks likely that they would be priced the same.282 277 Internalise network effects can require below cost pricing. Where any resulting subsidies must be raised within the industry a Ramsey approach to pricing is required, i.e. prices must take account of demand elasticities on both sides of the market. Counterintuitively, LMRT find that the trade-off between welfare costs imposed on both sides of the market by mark-ups over cost can require that the price be higher in the more price sensitive segment, in contrast with standard Ramsey pricing principles. 278 See Brown and Sibley (1986) for a extensive discussion about Ramsey Pricing. 279 See Laffont et al (2001) pp 13-14 and their appendix A. 280 Optimal pricing of the interconnection charge needs to be set individually to reflect the externalities generate by heterogeneous end-users and website that benefit the other side of the market. 281 See Milgrom et al (1999). 282 In order to confirm this, however, the model would have to been amended to add transit. 142 Final Report From an economic welfare perspective, end-users and websites should be charged different prices. There are at least two reason for this: • No end-user or website should be excluded where their willingness to pay for access is greater than the incremental cost they impose on their ISP.283 This is important in networks as large common costs mean that average costs are typically very much higher than incremental costs, and • As in each case there are network benefits generated by the other side of the market and these benefits differ for each end-user and website, each end-user and website should ideally be charged a personalised price so as the internalise the externality benefits they bring. Firms must have a great deal of market power to engage in third degree price discrimination, which is clearly not the case at present in regard to traffic exchange on the Internet. Such price discrimination is therefore mainly of theoretically interest. 8.3 Standardisation issues The Internet is made up of over 100,000 networks connected in a loose hierarchy. For it to continue growing and developing new services requires technical compatibility standards that enable new networks and new equipment to be added to the Internet and which are able to be accessed by all subscribers. As opposed to telecommunications networks which developed mainly as large monopolies employing internationally agreed technical standards, the Internet is a collection of heterogeneous networks that are connected to each other through the IP protocol and a variety of hardware and software based solutions. Multiple and sometimes substitutable standards are used and have not so far resulted in significant interoperability problems between networks. Rather this heterogeneity has been a hallmark of the Internet. However, this network of networks has not as a rule provided for seamless interconnection. It is not our task in this study to write an analysis of either standards setting processes, or the standards that make interoperability between Internetworks possible. This is a hugely complex topic in itself. Rather, what we discuss below are general issues concerning technical compatibility standards regarding the Internet. The rationale for the inclusion of this section in the report is that where network effects are present the control of standards can in theory be used to monopolise the market, much as the freedom to decide not to interconnect with rivals implies ultimate monopolisation of the market. The topic therefore deserves brief coverage in this study. 283 We are assuming here an absence of usage-based congestion externalities. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 143 The public policy interest in standards is chiefly concerned with network effects. Network effects arise when the average benefit enjoyed by users increases with the number of users. In this regard the economics of standards can be thought of in much the same way as interconnection, where standards provide the virtual side of interconnection. A lack of technical compatibility due to proprietary standards can lock in subscribers and may also result in highly concentrated markets.284 The standards setting processes involving the Internet divide into two categories: 1. Formal standards setting bodies where standards are agreed through consultation with the various interests, and 2. Standards developed by equipment manufacturers relating to the design and operation of their own products. In the first category there are several bodies involved in Internet standards setting. These include the IETF, ITU-T, ISO, and the ATM forum. Each of these bodies is likely to represent slightly different interests, although on many issues there may be a commonality of views. For example, the ITU and ATM forum tend to be associated with traditional telecommunications operators, while the IETF is associated with the Internet and companies that have grown up in recent years along with the Internet. Such bodies can end up competing with each other and this may be one cause of competing standards on the Internet.285 The IETF is the most important of these bodies and is a spin-off of the Internet Architecture Board (IAB) and the Internet Engineering Steering Group (IESG). It employs what it refers to as a "fair, open, and objective basis for developing, evaluating, and adopting Internet standards".286 Such processes do not appear to raise public policy concerns. Standards development by equipment manufacturers tends to substantially predate comparable IETF standards development. Indeed, the recent model for standards (and to a degree also technology) development on the Internet, appears to be that vendors first develop proprietary standards (technologies), and the IETF later develops an open standard which accomplishes roughly the same thing. Proprietary development tends to be rapid, while IETF solutions are much slower. In this respect, competition between vendors appears to be one of the forces driving technological progress, although doing little for standardisation. The IEFT on the other hand, draws on this invention and in time provides solutions for interoperability. Thus, competitive forces as well as co- 284 Such an outcome can be consistent with the preference of policy makers to foster technological progress, although where high levels of market concentration arise there are clearly trade-offs involved with this policy. 285 An obvious example here is SIP designed by the IETF, and H.323 designed by the technical standards body of the ITU. Both protocols are designed to enable communications to pass between the Internet and the PSTN. SIP is apparently more Spartan in its design. 286 See IETF RFC 2026, "The Internet Standards Process - Revision 3”. 144 Final Report operation appear to play a role in Internet standards development. For example, competition between equipment manufacturers played an important role in the development of MPLS, which evolved from several proprietary developments intended to combine layer 3 with layer 2 functions, perhaps the best known being Cisco’s Tag Switching protocols. The IETF then determined its own standard (MPLS) which borrowed from the various proprietary options. This development was to our knowledge unopposed by the propriety developers.287 Indeed, several largely substitutable vendor solutions (hardware combined with software) operate on the Internet, including Cisco’s Tag Switching. They do not provide for seamless interoperability, a situation that could provide the largest vendor with a strategic advantage over its rivals through being able to sell to ISPs the ability to access the largest seamless network – the one involving a commonality of equipment and standards. There is a corollary here with our discussion above about the strategic interaction between basic Internet service and the addition of a ubiquitous VoIP service. The sharing of most network benefits between ISPs seems likely to occur even though networks are not fully interoperable with each other – by which we mean that there is a significant difference between on-net and off-net QoS. If in the future networks that use completely interoperable equipment and software enjoy additional networks benefits not available outside the "on-net" solution, then ISPs will want a compensatory discount if they are to use a less than seamless solution. However, the competition between equipment manufacturers also appears to be a powerhouse of technological development in an industry characterised by rapidly changing technology. In getting involved in standardisation processes, it may be unavoidable that the authorities also change (probably reduce) the incentives that give rise to technological progress. Concerns about the possible role of standards in reducing competition between ISPs may be unfounded, however, as it is normal for open standards to be agreed where this is in the interests of both networks and subscribers. In relatively nascent and rapidly expanding markets, if the network benefits for subscribers are sufficiently large, open standards will normally prevail even though one (or more) of the networks might prefer proprietary standards. Where network benefits for consumers are low, proprietary standards may dominate.288 In this regard the IETF appears to provide open standards 287 Be that as it may, ISPs do not use the same software architectures at layers 2 and 3, and although we have noted in Chapter 4 and Annex B the problems that tend to arise because of software and hardware compatibility issues, sufficient compatibility is achieved in practice for a "best effort” to provide an adequate serve in regard to basic Internet services, such as file transfer and web-surfing. 288 See Steinmueller (2001). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 145 in time such that proprietary developments get only a limited amount of time to provide the vendor with an advantage before an open standard is adopted.289 8.4 Market failure concerning addressing In this section we will discuss IPv4 address depletion, the replacement of IPv4 by IPv6, BGP route table growth and the related issue of growth rates in the demands on router processing, and AS number exhaustion. Arguably the chief public policy issues that arise are due to the fact that the numbers used by the Internet addressing systems are being treated as if they were public goods (i.e. non exhaustible resources), whereas in practice they are scarce resources. In such cases theory and evidence suggests that congestion will occur – sometimes known as a tragedy of the commons problem. It occurs because entities’ usage of numbers and addresses does not take account of the impact their usage has on the usage of others, and this can give rise to externality costs.290 A similar type of problem may also arise where the increasing length of route announcements, and increased route announcements and withdrawals, demand more processing power from routers. These would represent spill-over costs of changes that have occurred elsewhere in the network which relate to address depletion or the way addresses are used. Concerns have also been raised about possible co-ordination difficulties experienced in trying to overcome addressing problems, and the possibility that in the future Internet services may be disrupted due to address exhaustion and a non-standardised approach to solving this problem. We discuss these concerns below. 8.4.1 The replacement of IPv4 by IPv6 Rates of growth in active IP addresses are non-constant and have varied substantially from time to time since the 1980s (which is when data started to be provided). Some of the most dramatic of these variations occurred as a result of developments that enabled changes in address allocation policy and the way the addressing on LAINs and WAINs was designed in response to these changes. These developments included: 289 A point perhaps worth considering for future research in this are is whether there are firms in other industries close to the Internet that may be able to leverage entry and advantage on the back of network benefits provided by certain standards. Microsoft may be one such company. Where such a large majority of Internet hosts use Microsoft’s proprietary operating system there may be some danger of Microsoft being able to leverage its market power in computer software into the Internet as has reputably been attempted with HTML (unsuccessfully). 290 One of the hallmarks of a public good is that my usage of it does effect the value you get from using it. This is not the case with numbering and addressing on the Internet, as we discuss below. 146 Final Report • The adoption of CIDR which enable much more efficient use and allocation of addresses; • Network address translation (NAT,) and • Dynamic addressing.291 The latter two contributed greatly by enabling hosts to have access to the Internet without having an IPv4 address permanently assigned to them. These factors have greatly assisted in reducing the rate of growth in IPv4 address deployment.292 Indeed, measurement shows that the span of address space had grown at an average annual rate of about 7% between November 1999 and December 2000.293 If this rate were to continue into the future IPv4 addresses could theoretically last until about 2018. Huston’s projections are shown in Figure 8-3. Figure 8-3: IPv4 address depletion Source: Huston (2001b). Given the past history of changes in this growth rate, we consider there to be a fairly wide margin of error in this projection. Moreover, Huston is considering the theoretically possible 232 IPv4 addresses. There are several reason why IPv4 address exhaustion will in practice occur well before this date. The main factors explaining this appear to be: 291 These topics are discussed in Chapter 3. 292 A more detailed discussion of these changes can be found in Chapter 3 and in the annex to Chapter 3. 293 See Huston (2001b). We do not know whether his means of estimating this figure involved confidence intervals. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 147 • The allocation of addresses is done in blocks, and this means that in practice it is not possible to match allocation with actual requirements, i.e. utilisation efficiency is always significantly less than perfect; • There is a list of non-usable IPv4 addresses,294 and • There will be many drivers of demand for Internet services in the roughly foreseeable future that would appear to imply a rise in the growth in the demand for addresses, including: - The role of GPRS, 3rd and 4th Generation (3G and 4G) mobile services on demand for IPv4 addresses. These networks require a new network architecture compared to that of the traditional voice oriented GSM networks. One particular feature of this new architecture is that there will be new network elements and interfaces which communicate with each other on the basis of the IP protocol.295 Release 5 of the 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) specifies that UMTS is to be based on an all-IP network architecture.296 Moreover, it will not only be network elements and interfaces that will be IP-based, but also the terminal equipment, implying that demand for addresses will in all likelihood experience a significant autonomous shift upwards by network operators and mobile Internet service providers alike;297,298 - The growth in next generation applications, such as VoIP, e-commerce, the ehome and e-business. These factors seem likely to substantially alter the rate of growth of Internet addresses and traffic, and require that organisations using dynamic provisioning will need to provision from a larger pool of addresses. It has also been suggested that permanent addresses would need to be assigned in the case of the e-home and e-business,299 and - The potential for Internet growth to accelerate in parts of the world where present Internet subscriptions compared to GDP per capita is low. See http://search.ietf.org/Internet-drafts/draft-manning-dsua-06.txt See for example, Smith and Collins (2002, section 5.4.5). See Smith and Collins (2002, section 4.7). The UMTS Forum has stated that it is in favour of a rapid introduction of IPv6. In their report number 11 titled "Enabling UMTS / Third Generation Services and Applications" the UMTS Forum urges that the rapid wide-scale introduction of IPv6 will play a vital role in overcoming problems relating to endto-end security as well as numbering, addressing, naming and QoS for real-time applications and services. Further on, it is argued that "while the fixed ISP community is still weighing up the merits of deploying IPv6, the mobile sector is already realising that its intrinsic security, ease of configuration and vastly increased address space are all 'must haves' for mobile Internet". See UMTS Forum, Press Release November 1, 2000. 298 The longer the introduction 3G is delayed, the more likely it seems that 3G networks will adopt IPv6 from the outset. 299 See Ó Hanluain (2002). 294 295 296 297 148 Final Report In practical terms, therefore, IPv4 address exhaustion or substitution will occur considerably before 2018, with most estimates suggesting some time around the end of the decade.300 IPv6 is an Internet addressing scheme standardised by the IETF, and developed in the early 1990s primarily in response to IPv4 address depletion, and intended as its replacement. While adoption of IPv6 is still in the planning stage as at early 2002, several (private) intranets have been using it for some time.301,302 Six main features have been identified as giving IPv6 an advantage over IPv4: • IPv6 has 128 places in the header for addressing compared to IPv4’s 32 places, thus solving the shortage of address space; • The IPv6 header is simplified reducing processing costs associated with packet handling, and thus limiting the bandwidth cost of the header; • A new capability is added to IPv6 which enables the labelling of particular traffic flows, i.e. sequences of packets sent from a particular source to a particular destination for which the source desires special handling by the intervening routers, such as non-default quality of service or real-time service; • ISPs that want to change their service provider can do so more easily and at lower cost when they are using IPv6 compared to if they were using IPv4; • IPv6 is able to identify and distinguish between a great many different types of service with different corresponding QoS. IPv4 has this capability also, but has room for only four different types of service, and • IPv6 has improved security capabilities regarding authentication, data integrity, and (optional) data confidentiality. However, recent developments have resulted in the perceived gap between IPv4 and IPv6 closing. These developments concern the following: • The original concern about pending address exhaustion has dissipated somewhat, with estimated dates for address exhaustion starting in 2005, although arguably 300 The period prior to the 1990s was when address allocations were most profligate. As the Internet was mainly US based at that time this has meant that most (about 75%) IPv4 addresses are allocated in the U.S. 301 We understand IPv6 is running in several places on private IP networks, including WorldCom's own corporate network, where it has been used for several years. 302 The European Commission is also funding several projects which have as their main aim to make operational a pan European IPv6 network. For example, the Euro6IX project has apparently received €17 Million to connect a number of Internet exchange points across Europe using IPv6, and to test a range of technical issues concerning next generation IP networks. See www.euro6ix.net. The Commissions total estimated contribution to IPv6 development projects comes to approximately €55.45 million. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 149 most appear to think that IPv4 address exhaustion will occur around the end of this decade; • The development of a flow management mechanism in MPLS appears to have resulted in IPv4 being able to match the traffic flow functions provided by IPv6;303 • The lower processing costs associated with handling packets due to IPv6 having a simplified header in comparison to IPv4, are now thought to be largely cancelled by IPv6’s more complex addresses, and • The security features offered by IPv6 appear to be relatively closely matched by recent security developments by the IETF known as ‘IPSec’, and which use IPv4. The Internet community does not appear to be in any rush to adopt IPv6, although many of the key players are doing work that will enable its adoption.304 The reasons for this will not be trivial, and will require us to look more widely than the bullet points immediately above. We now provide a brief discussion of what some of these reasons may be. From each network’s perspective, adoption of IPv6 will be costly, especially in terms of the man-hours required to plan and make adjustments to each network. Assuming entities are not driven at this time to adopt IPv6 due to IPv4 address exhaustion, in order for entities to make the costly switch from IPv4 to IPv6 they will typically need to see a financial motive before doing so. In the case of ISPs, for example, they need to have an expectation that their profitability will either be: • enhanced by switching to IPv6, or • damaged by not switching to IPv6. One or the other of these bullets would be accomplished if IPv6 could be used to provide new services, service attributes, or improved QoS, that enabled an ISP to get additional revenues from customers, where those revenues are not cancelled by higher costs. This being the case, ISPs that did not shift to IPv6 would see their customers start to switch to ISPs that did use IPv6.305 There are arguably four main explanations for why networks do not appear to be in a rush for IPv6 to be adopted: 1. The advantages offered by IPv6 over IPv4 may not be especially useful at this time given the present level of Internet development; 303 Marcus (1999), p 235. 304 In Europe, periodic RIPE meetings provide a forum where the technical issues involved in an IPv6 Internet are discussed. 305 We are assuming here that end-to-end IPv6 functionality would be provided, an assumption we analyse below. 150 Final Report 2. IPv4 and IPv6 will apparently interoperate on the Internet, i.e. there will be no shutoff date or Y2K type of catastrophe; 3. There may be a network externality benefit caused by a lack of co-ordinated uptake of IPv6 (a synchronisation problem), and 4. There may be a significant option value retained by ISPs in waiting, rather than being early preparers for IPv6 adoption. We now discuss these points in turn. Taking point 1 first, it appears that the advantages of IPv6 over IPv4 may not as yet translate into sufficient commercial opportunities to drive ISPs to start the process of preparing for IPv6 adoption more quickly than is required by pending IPv4 address exhaustion. In addition to its vast address space, the other advantages IPv6 has over IPv4 seem most likely to come to the fore with the arrival of the Next Generation Internet (NGI), and this does not appear to be expected for at least another 5 years. It may be the case that IPv4 is still considered suitable by most ISPs given the existing level of Internet development and the level of IPv4 addresses that remain to be allocated. In regard to the second point, IPv6 has been designed to operate where many ISPs continue to rely on IPv4. It is very unlikely that serious network problems or rationing requirements will arise caused as a result of IPv4 address exhaustion. In other words, both IPv6 and IPv4 will be acceptable on the Internet in the coming years such that interoperability will be maintained. The way this is done is by tunnelling IPv6 within IPv4 in those parts of the Internet that continue to rely on IPv4, such that the IPv6 datagram also gets an IPv4 header. This packet is then forwarded to the next hop according to the instructions contained in the IPv4 header. At the tunnel end-point the process is reversed.306 Tunnels can be used router-to-router, router-to-host, host-to-router, or host-to-host.307 Considering the third point, a potentially important network externality benefit may be lost if there are significant benefits associated with IPv6 adoption that are not being considered by individual networks when considering whether to be early converters to IPv6. This might be the case if much of the Internet needs to have already adopted IPv6 before it becomes sufficiently useful for most ISP to choose to switch to IPv6. We could call this an unaccounted for synchronisation value. The issue concerns the need for IPv6 to operate end-to-end in order for its benefits to be most useful. The first network to switch may get relatively few advantages, these being presumably in relation to the proportion of its on-net to total traffic. According to this argument there would be less incentive for smaller networks to be early adopters than very large ones. If this 306 The tunnel end point need not necessarily be the final destination of the IPv6 packet. 307 See Marcus (1999), p. 239. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 151 synchronisation value exists and was large compared to IPv6 switching costs, then a significant market failure would threaten suggesting that the authorities should intervene in some way. While further analysis would be required in order to identify the form in which an effective intervention may take, the obvious possibilities would include, imposing a mandatory date for adopting IPv6,308 and subsidies paid to networks to switch to IPv6. However, even if this co-ordination value was shown to exist, further research would be needed to show that the private benefits for networks from switching to IPv6 were not large enough for the most networks to switch to IPv6 without intervention and in a time scale that did not imply a costly delay. In other words, even if there were externality benefits present, the private benefits of adoption (i.e. exclusive of the network benefit) may be large enough to bring about a sufficiently timely adoption of IPv6. What is more, we suspect that due to the first point above, any synchronisation value that did for arguments sake exist, is unlikely to be large enough over the next few years to warrant any official intervention. A closely related issue concerns the possibility that the development of NGI and its associated services is being held back by not having IPv6 widely deployed today. Assuming these IPv6 associated benefits exist, it is doubtful, however, that they represent a genuine market failure as the benefits do not appear to be direct network effects, and nor do they appear to be caused by the supply of complimentary services that increase the value of the network (i.e. indirect network effects). They might more accurately be described as spill-over benefits associated with economic multipliers. Profitable economic activities generally have positive spill-over benefits, but these are not market failures. In the absence of a market failure there is no divergence between private and social cost and thus no market correction exists. Our research suggests that other aspects of the Internet need to develop before IPv4 might or might not start to impose a costly limitation on the development of the Internet. By this time pending IPv4 address exhaustion will likely provide sufficient incentive for widespread preparation for IPv6 adoption. The fourth point above refers to the option value of continuing to wait rather than start the IPv6 conversion process. This option value could be quite significant where there are high sunk costs and technology is evolving rapidly, as has occurred with the Internet to date.309 The risk is that IPv6 may become out of date due to technological development before it takes over from IPv4 as the leading Internet addressing scheme. While this becomes increasingly unlikely as IPv4 address exhaustion draws near, as there appear to be few costs involved in waiting, it may be a perfectly rational and efficient decision for many ISPs and intranets to wait and see before making any commitment to replace IPv4 with IPv6 on their own networks. 308 This has apparently occurred in Japan, where all networks are required to use IPv6 by 2005. 309 Dixit and Pindyck (1994), provide a through analysis of Real Options. 152 Final Report In conclusion, Internet IP-address management is an area where there appears to be market failure. Early IP-address allocation in particular failed to see that addresses were a ‘depletable’ resource, and there remain huge amounts of allocated IPv4 addresses that are unused and will remain so. The degree to which this market failure imposes costs on society will depend on whether the adoption IPv6 provides a large enough increase in cumulated benefits net of conversion costs, compared to the situation where IPv4 continues to be used (assuming there is no IPv4 address shortage). We are not in possession of the information that would give us the confidence needed to forecast an outcome of this cost benefit exercise. The Internet community is in the best position to make this judgement, although we note that few networks seem to be in any hurry to make the conversion. There appears, however, to be a little more enthusiasm among firms that sell equipment to these companies or to end-users. 8.4.2 Routing table growth The largest networks - those at the top of the Internet’s loose hierarchy - referred to as core ISPs, peer with each other, and each such network maintains a virtually complete set of Internet addresses in its BGP routing tables. The size of these routing tables has implications for router memory and the processing time with which routers can perform calculations on routing table changes, and the speed with which datagrams can be routed. A public policy issue regarding routing table growth concerns the possibility that the rate of growth in announced routes will exceed the rate of growth in the switching capacity of routers (i.e. processing power) and that this would lead to increasing instability and a rapid decline in QoS on the Internet, perhaps leading to usage and/or membership numbers needing to be controlled. As with IPv4 addresses, routing table growth is not stable and has also been effected by CIDR and reputably also by a period of intense aggregation within the ISP industry which brought about large scale reallocation between the mid 1990s until about 1998. These factors reduced routing table growth rates substantially over this period.310 Routing tables are being continuously updated on the Internet. Networks periodically announce their routes into the exterior routing domain. Through the mid to late 1990s the hourly variation in announced routes has apparently decreased, and together with a shift to announcing more aggregated blocks of addresses, along with the use of route flap damping,311 the stability of the routing system has been improved, with addressing 310 Huston (2001b). 311 "Route flap" is the informal term used to describe an excessive rate of update in the advertised reachability of a subset of Internet prefixes. These excessive updates are not necessarily periodic so route oscillation would be a misleading term. The techniques used to solve these effects are commonly referred as "route flap damping", and are usually associated with BGP (Border Gateway Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 153 anomalies being shifted out of the core and into the edges of the Internet. Investigation by Huston (2001b) suggests that the processing required to update routing tables in response to route withdrawals and announcements also declined during this period.312 As can be seen from Figure 6-3, that from late 1998 the growth rate in the BGP route table size appears to have trended up sharply, giving rise to concerns that it would surpass the growth in processing speed or the capability of BGP routing protocol. Reasons for the increases are complex, but appear to include the growth in multihoming and secondary peering which has lead to a more meshed and less hierarchical Internet. One outcome of this appears to be the much greater use of policy routing involving route announcements for a subset of prefixes that are themselves already announced. Indeed, in 2000, about 30% of route announcement fitted this description. However, in the last twelve months or so BGP table growth rates have dropped back to a level that if sustained raise few concerns. In addition to route table growth there are other factors that call on router processing power and have implications for router performance. These are: • The length of the route advertisement themselves, and • The rate of route announcements and withdrawals. The concern about route table growth rates exceeding the growth in processing power must, therefore, take into account the role played by these two factors. Huston has recently investigated them. He found that the prefix length of route advertisements is increasing by one bit every 29 months, implying increasingly finer entries in forwarding tables; lookup tables are getting larger and routers are increasingly having to search deeper, calling on more and more memory. Moreover, the growth in route announcements and withdrawals is increasing in the smaller address block range, and this is where the route tables’ fastest growing prefixes can be found. Withdrawals in particular are BGP processor-hungry. Route table growth, the increasing table depth, and the increase in route announcements and withdrawals in the smaller prefix area of the tables, has implications for Internet performance and stability. While the situation appears manageable at present, this topic looks likely to remain one of concern to the Internet community and observing authorities. Protocol) routing techniques. The formal definition and description can be found in RFC 2439 (http://www.faqs.org/rfcs/rfc2439.html). 312 However, the growth in multi-homing and secondary peering has had the opposite effect on route table growth – an issue we discuss below. 154 Final Report 8.4.3 AS number growth The number of ASes is growing more rapidly than is the number of IPv4 addresses (roughly 50% per year c.f. 7%). At present rates of growth it has been estimated that AS numbers will be used up before 2006.313 Since these estimates were made the growth has slowed. Nevertheless, the EITF is planning to modify BGP so that its AS carrying capacity is increased to a 32-bit field from the present 16-bits. Estimates of AS number allocations up to and including November 2000 showed that of the 17,000 AS numbers allocated at this date, a little under 10,000 were actually in use.314 There are two main classes that make up the unused ASes. These are: 1. Historically allocated ASes that are: - lost in the system - used in a semi private context, and 2. ASes that are recently allocated but not yet deployed (most common).315 The deployment of AS numbers and their pending exhaustion is of concern to the Internet community. Protocol modifications are likely, and what Marcus refers to as ‘hacks’ may also be adopted. But these fail to address the main policy problem, and that is the lack of incentives for networks to take account of the costs their number and address usage has on other Internet entities and users. Huston has suggested that the increasing number of smaller networks at the edge of the Internet implies that the provider-based address block allocation policy is in need of replacement, and we suspect his views are shared by a number of his peers. 8.4.4 Conclusions regarding addressing issues It seems clear that IP addressing and AS numbering management are far from optimal. In principle, there appear to be significant costs that networks’ addressing and numbering choices impose on other networks (and end-users) that ought to be avoidable. While perhaps impractical in regard to the Internet, the usual way to overcome this type of externality cost of which the ‘free’ allocation of addresses and numbers is an example, is to use an economic mechanism designed to internalise for each demander of addresses and numbers, the costs his allocation places on the rest 313 Statistical analysis has suggested that growth rates are equally likely to prove to be exponential or quadratic (Gupta and Srinivasan, in Marcus 2001). 314 See Marcus (2001). 315 Huston, in Marcus (2001). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 155 of the Internet community. In this regard, it is perhaps pertinent to note the efficient way these problems are addressed in the PSTN World is to impose number holding costs on all entities that have been allocated numbers. As in the case of telephone numbering administration, the amount need be no larger than is required to encourage entities to use numbers sparingly so that private costs more accurately reflect social costs. In the case of IPv4 addresses for example, there are very large amounts of addresses that have been allocated but are unused, and will remain so as long as IPv4 is in use. To encourage their return to the RIRs so that they can be reallocated, an amount of, say, € 0.10 per address per annum may be sufficient to have the desired effect. We are not, however, recommending this as a policy for the Internet as it would be a significant intervention and begs the question of who would collect the money and how would it be spent. Rather, this paragraph is included because it provides information about the nature of the externality problem, as well as providing information about how the same type of problem is efficiently dealt with in a nearby market. Moreover, whatever the policy details, this sort of approach implies the creation of an independent authority whose task it would be to manage Internet addressing. Even assuming this was possible, in practice we suspect that it may not be practical or ultimately efficient to bring about such a fundamental change to the ‘management’ of the Internet. Other highly advantageous aspects of the Internet’s present structure may be at risk if such changes were to be implemented. For example, numbering and addressing appears to be tied up with technological development regarding the Internet, which would creating the need for ‘an authority’ to make tradeoffs between static and dynamic efficiency. To the extent that the dynamic benefits are in the future, the authority would be guessing at these, with every possibility of getting them wrong. Without being able to provide a rigorous defence underpinning its choices, decisions would be viewed as arbitrary. It should also be noted that there is no compelling reason to believe that the Internet community will not be able to make the transition to a new addressing scheme without encountering grave problems; those that may result in instability of the Internet and/or require restrictions on usage or perhaps also on the numbering of new networks. Worries about addressing and numbering co-ordination problems possibly requiring some sort of official intervention seem premature. There are potentially avoidable market failure costs associated with Internet addressing and numbering management, but in trying to prevent these the authorities would likely create greater costs elsewhere. 8.5 Existing regulation Except in one or two countries where (perhaps ineffective) rules about content have been introduced, the Internet is not directly regulated. However, the Internet does not operate in a legal / regulatory vacuum. There are rules that govern the posting of information, such as copyright and intellectual property law. Some firms that own ISPs, 156 Final Report or firms that supply network services used by the Internet, are directly regulated, the most obvious examples being incumbent telecommunications operators. More generally, firms that operate in markets close to and even overlapping Internet markets, are regulated. This raises the possibility, indeed likelihood, that firms which are competing for the same customers will not be equally treated under the law. In the near future changes in the process by which regulation is applied in the EU should significantly reduce the danger of competitors being covered by different laws and regulations. The approach that is making its way through the relevant European institutions at present will require any industry regulations to be targeted according to antitrust markets, and not to be placed on any firm that does not have dominance in that market. This approach will not completely prevent regulatory non-neutrality, especially in industries where antitrust market boundaries are changing relatively rapidly, as appears to be happening with the convergence of different communications platforms, one of which is the Internet. One reason for this is that markets do not halt abruptly in either product or geographic space, and thus some regulatory non-neutrality is inevitable where different platforms are regulated differently. An area where non-neutrality is already present concerns universal service subsidies, or more particular the way special universal service taxes (USO contributions) are raised from industry participants.316 As convergence occurs platforms other than the PSTN will be competing in the same market to provide voice services. We expect that voice services will be increasing provided over the Internet in competition with fixed line switched circuit networks and potentially also in competition with cellular networks. Clearly, when one type of firm pays extra taxes that its competitors do not pay, there would be a breach in competitive neutrality principles. The complexity of trying to work out the regulations which would determine the USO liabilities of nationally-based Internet companies so as to overcome this non-neutrality should not be underestimated. Indeed, the problems may be such as to make it too difficult to design or operate regulatory rules that would be practical and efficient given existing institutional limitations. Rather, the way forward may be not to seek to apply the special tax to firms using other technology platforms, but to raise the revenues needed through a different mechanism. We have discussed the efficiency and institutional advantages of such an approach in WIK (2000), and we have also discussed in that study how this might be done. The USA is facing similar problems due to IP transport having been classified by the FCC as information services as opposed to telecommunications services. This definition has put IP transport outside of the scope of telecommunications service regulations.317 316 We provided a detailed analysis of the sources of non-neutrality in existing rules in chapter 3 of WIK (2000). 317 See Mindel and Sirbu (2000) for a discussion of the situation in the USA. Related issues are also addressed by Kolesar, Levin and Jerome (2000). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 157 The problem in the USA which is qualitatively similar to that in the EU, is shown in Figure 8-4. As the PSTN and the Internet increasingly compete for the same business, differences in cost and price structures are likely to become very important in the competitive process. We have already noted the type of costs involved in providing Internet service. The main three are: fixed costs in the provision of basic capacity; the cost of adding subscribers, and a congestion cost (see Section 8.1 for further discussion). None of these costs are caused on a per minute of usage basis, and it is debatable as to the degree to which per minute prices would be a suitable proxy for marginal usage costs. In fact these costs are caused by the number of bits sent during congested periods. Figure 8-4: Non-neutral treatment of communications services in the USA Telecommunications service (triggers additional obligations) PSTN (voice) X.25, ATM, Frame relay. (Transport services) Information service IP transport services E-mail, Websites, Content, Instant messaging Source: Mindel and Sirbu (2000). PSTN regulations require interconnection charges to be levied on a per minute basis. One explanation for this approach is that circuits are dedicated for the entire period of a telephone call – they can not be used by anyone else. This is not the case for a VoIP call which involves statistical multiplexing such that peak usage costs are bit related. We already discussed the potential for difficulties when levying per minute charge for Internet usage.318 In order for PSTN operators not to face a regulatory disadvantage, the regulated price structure of PSTN interconnection tariffs may well need review in the near to medium term, perhaps with one outcome being that PSTN interconnection would be priced in terms of ‘busy hour’ capacity costs. As per minute charges are in principle built up from capacity costs, part of the work needed in order for such changes to be implemented has already occurred.319 318 See Section 7.2.2. 319 Other areas of possible market failure caused by regulation are less obvious although potentially important, and include reduced levels of new entry, competition, and investment, caused by investor shyness due to regulatory uncertainty and the risk of regulatory opportunism. These are, however, real problems and arise especially in utility industries where there are long-lived investments prone to being stranded by regulatory or political decisions. (US tariffs on steel imports, for example, strand investors’ assets in countries where steel producers export to the US.) We do not address this type of market failure here but direct readers to the study we did jointly with a partner: Cullen International & WIK (2001), "Universal service in the Accession Countries”, especially pages 82-96 in the Main Report, and 8-13 in the Country Report. 158 Final Report The Internet is not directly regulated and its Internationality and border-less structure would make regulation very difficult to implement and operate. As a general rule, where Internet networks and other firms are starting to compete with each other and do not receive equal regulatory treatment, we suggest that regulatory authorities begin addressing the problem by first looking at ways to remove regulations to bring about competitive neutrality, rather than contemplate applying new (e.g. PSTN) regulations to the Internet. 8.6 Summary of public policy interest Left completely unregulated, Internet network effects would likely result in monopolisation, most probably through the aggressive takeover of rivals. Where market power is distributed among many interconnecting networks, however, direct ex ante regulation is normally unnecessary in order to prevent this from occurring. Merger / takeover rules which are included as part of competition law, are the appropriate way to address the risk of monopolisation. However, in the long-run this need not be the case, as events may occur that are not illegal under competition law but which result in increasing market concentration. It is possible, for example, that firms that have some market power in markets nearby to traditional Internet services might try to leverage that power into the traditional Internet in order to give them a competitive advantage. If offnet QoS problems persist this may lead to on-net services being the source of such an advantage. This type of differentiating strategy does not appear to have been influential to date, although it may become so in future. Further academic research that focusses on these issues would assist us in being able to finesse our discussion on this issue.320 The research evidence regarding interconnection pricing suggests that under a wide variety of circumstances, even backbones that have market power have an incentive to set interconnection prices according to "the off-net pricing principle". The main reason for this is that the access price works to govern the distribution of costs between both sides of the market – end-users and websites – but under quite general conditions, does not alter the profitability of backbones. Indeed, it is suggested that powerful backbones may do best by pricing interconnection very low and to seek higher profits in end-user charges.321 While we have explained why there are significant inefficiencies involved with the present pricing system (both between ISPs, and between end-users and their ISP), there appears to be no need for intervention here by the authorities in the foreseeable future. There is considerable effort ongoing by those in the Internet community to http://europa.eu.int/information_society/topics/telecoms/international/news/index_en.htm 320 Similar arguments might apply to the largest equipment manufacturer, although subsequent IETF open standards that are equivalent to proprietary ones seem likely to at least partially undermine such a strategy. 321 Where several services with different QoSes operate over the Internet, the analysis would appear to remain valid for each QoS. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 159 overcome QoS and demand management issues, and to a large degree these will rely on technological developments. Internet address allocation is an area where significant market failure may be found. Concerns mainly involve the costly adoption of IPv6 being prematurely forced on the Internet community by the likely exhaustion of IPv4 addresses before the end of this decade. These costs exist to the extent that ISPs and other numbered entities would not freely switch to IPv6 if IPv4 was not nearing exhaustion. IPv6 offers incremental but not revolutionary improvements over IPv4 and as technology is evolving at a pace in this area there is also a remote risk that premature adoption of IPv6 due to early profligacy in IPv4 allocation will foreclose on technically superior developments that may have materialised had IPv4 lasted longer. One reason behind IPv4’s early demise is the lack of appropriate economic incentives to treat the addressing system as a depletable resource. BGP route table growth is of less concern, although an analysis of the issues suggests that the Internet community might seek an agreement that would take pressure off processing used for addressing on the Internet. AS number growth is also an area of legitimate concern, although the IETF is in the process of designing an increase in the carrying capacity of the AS header to a 32-bit field from the present 16-bit field. A health warning needs to be attached to the findings of the academic research we have discussed in this chapter. Where the circumstances are such as to suggest a nonproblematic outcome we need to view this as a "failure to reject" rather than a confirmation that no problem exists. One reason for such caution is that the models employed are stylised simplifications of the structures that guide the behaviour of the main Internet players. Subtle nuances are not included in this research as to do so would greatly complicate the analysis and detract from a focus on what are perceived to be the most important relationships. Other strategies may be being played out, however, that contradict the findings of authors’ whose work has been discussed in this study. Our view is that the authorities should not rely too heavily on the findings that such models uncover as a basis for either permitting or rejecting merger applications. Finally, existing regulation is an area which will need attention in the next few years. Perhaps the two main problem areas will concern universal service taxes, and the structure of interconnection prices where there is convergence of the Internet with the PSTN. While the EU has moved to modify the rules governing ex ante regulation by employing an antitrust-based market analysis and this will assist in avoiding some of the market distortions caused when different regulations apply to converging industries, the reform of existing regulations still raises competition questions, and finding answers to these will not be a trivial exercise. 160 8.7 Final Report Main findings of the study Market structure and competition: In the complete absence of rules protecting competition, industries that display strong network effects like the Internet have a tendency to drift toward monopolisation, most probably through the aggressive takeover of rivals. The Internet has become less hierarchical in the last 5 or 6 years due to the introduction of new technologies which enable an increasing proportion of traffic to avoid the upper layer of the Internet hierarchy. This has reduced the market power of core ISPs. The main technologies enabling this are: those that enable content to be held closer to the edges of the internet (caching, mirroring, and content delivery networks), and those that have made regional interconnection between smaller ISPs (secondary peering), and multi-homing (transit contracts with several core ISPs), economically attractive. Where market power is distributed among a sufficient number of interconnected networks, and services that function as partial substitutes for transit interconnection are widely purchased (those services noted in the above bullet), direct ex ante regulation of the core of the Internet is unnecessary in order to prevent monopolisation from occurring. Merger regulation should be relied upon instead. The loosening of the hierarchy has reduced the bargaining power of core ISPs when negotiating service contracts with ‘downstream’ ISPs and major content providers. Analysis of the strategic interests of the largest player(s) suggests that in many cases they will not gain by degrading interconnection unless they already have a share of the global market well in excess of anything observed presently. Research evidence regarding price discrimination suggests that in a wide variety of circumstances backbones have an incentive to set interconnection prices according to “the off-net pricing principle”: that is, customers pay the same price for receiving traffic independently of whether the traffic was originated on the ISPs own network (on-net) or on another ISPs network (off-net). If ISPs have the power to price discriminate between on-net and off-net traffic, this situation may become unstable and the market tip in favour of the largest network. Where seamless interconnection can not be provided (e.g. where there are QoS problems at network borders as is the present case), new services that require high QoS attributes such as VoIP, may restore to a degree the importance of network size in the competitive process between core ISPs. If this occurred it would imply tipping in favour of the largest network. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 161 Where seamless interconnection can not be provided (e.g. where there are QoS problems at network borders as is the present case), new services that require high QoS attributes such as VoIP, may restore to a degree the importance of network size in the competitive process between core ISPs. If this occurred it would imply tipping in favour of the largest network. Part of our report provides an analysis of the relevance of theoretical models related to the topics discussed in this study, with several of these models motivated by recent merger cases. The strategies identified by these economic models provide valuable insight by focussing on key economic relationships. The models are, however, always simplifications of reality, and should be viewed more as a failure to reject the strategy predicted, and less as a confirmation that it will in practice occur. A level of market failure exists in the pricing of interconnected traffic as the indirect network benefits provided by content providers are not taken account of in interconnection prices. Given recent growth rates in subscriptions and content, the net cost to society of this failure appears to be relatively low, and not of the order that would warrant official intervention. The number of public Internet exchange points is increasing. The peering policies of core ISPs do not appear to be unfair and do not at this stage entail competition policy or regulatory concerns. Addressing IPv4 addresses are likely to be exhausted before the end of this decade. The adoption of IPv6 is costly but appears unlikely to cause significant disruption, and thus to require official involvement to facilitate transition. In addition to a huge increase in address space provided by IPv6, it offers other advantages over IPv4, although in several areas the advantage has been significantly narrowed due to developments involving IPv4. Other aspects of the Internet such as those concerning measurement, billing, and grade of service pricing, need to develop before other advantages offered by IPv6 can be translated into benefits to end-users. IPv4 addresses are a scarce resource and failure to treat them as such has lead to pending address exhaustion and the need for the Internet Community to adopt a new addressing scheme before the end of this decade. The efficiency costs entailed in this could be considerable. However, intervention that would try to correct this inefficiency is not advised. The main reasons for this are as follows: the Internet has no nationality, and is made up of over 100,000 networks world-wide. This makes regulation rather impractical; 162 Final Report addressing is tied up with technology development, and in such cases intervention should only be considered where there are compelling reasons for doing so, and the internet community has shown that it is able to plan for the future and will likely avoid serious disruption such that existing and replacement addressing schemes will work with each other i.e. at a minimum IPv6 hosts will support IPv4 addresses. Quality of service (QoS) QoS in packet-switched networks such as the Internet describes the statistical properties of the packet stream of network ‘connections’ Most parameters concerning Internet traffic performance are non deterministic and have to be defined probabilistically. Thus, strictly speaking packets do not receive equal treatment. However, as packets are randomised irrespective of the source or application to which that data is being put, then in this sense no packet can be said to receive preferred treatment under the current best effort transfer principle of the Internet. The key to convergence between the Internet and broadcasting and voice telephony services, is provided by a combination of: solutions for QoS problems that exist between different networks (i.e. when traffic passes from being on-net to off-net), which arise for reasons including differences in propriety equipment and network management systems, and the introduction of demand management techniques, such as through the provision of several grades of service (GoS), each with different end-to-end QoS statistics, and priced to customers accordingly. Greater bandwidth and processing power alone will not solve all congestion and QoS problems on the Internet. This is because the Internet involves the use of scarce resources, and when treated otherwise, theory and evidence suggests that congestion will become a problem, undermining convergence and the development of services that require superior QoS statistics. Technologies intended to provide for an improved QoS, such as IntServ, DiffServ, and Resource reSerVation Protocol (RSVP), must be implemented on all routers between origination and termination, and at present these technologies are mainly limited to intranets and some routes on a small number of ISP networks. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 163 The prospect of these technologies being widely deployed in the Internet seems low, especially as IntServ and RSVP have limited scalability, and increasing convergence between data and optical layers looks likely to lead to superior alternatives in the medium term. 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BTCellnet , at RIPE 40, Prague (Czech Republic) BTexact, at RIPE 40, Prague (Czech Republic) Cable & Wireless, Munich (Germany), Brussels (Belgium) Cisco, at RIPE 40, Prague (Czech Republic) Colt, Frankfurt (Germany) Deutsche Telekom, Bonn (Germany) De-CIX, Frankfurt (Germany) eco-Verband, Cologne (Germany) European Telecommunications Platform (etp), invitation to participate at a regular meeting in Brussels (Belgium) Genuity (telephone interview) Global Crossing (telephone) Infigate, Essen (Germany) MCI Worldcom, Brussels (Belgium) and telephone conferences Nextra, Bonn (Germany) Nokia, at RIPE 40, Prague (Czech Republic) RIPE, participation at the 40th regular meeting in Prague (Czech Republic) TeleCity, Frankfurt (Germany) Viagénie (at RIPE 40, Prague) In addition we had very informative email contacts with experts in other organisations, including the FCC and Telstra. We would like to express our thanks to the above organisations for the information they provided us at various stages of the project. However, we bear sole responsibility for the contents of this study. 172 Final Report Glossary AAL ATM Adaptation Layer ABR Available Bit Rate AC Average Cost ALG Application Layer Gateway APNIC Asia Pacific Network Information Centre AR Average Revenue ARIN American Registry for Internet Numbers AS Autonomous System ATM Asynchronous Transfer Mode BGP Border Gateway Protocol CATV Cable TV CBR Constant Bit Rate CCITT Comité Consultatif International Télegraphique et Téléphonique ccTLD country code Top Level Domain CDN Content Delivery Network CDV Cell Delay Variation CER Cell Error Ratio CERT Computer Emergency Response Team Ceteris Paribus all other things being equal CIDR Classless Inter Domain Routing CIX Commercial Internet Exchange CLR Cell Loss Ratio CMR Cell Misinsertion Ratio CoS Class of Service CRT Crémer, Rey and Tirole CTD Cell Time Delay DHCP Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol DiffServ Differentiated Services (Protocols) DNS Domain Name System DSCP Differentiated Services Code Point Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks DSL Digital Subscriber Line DSLAM Digital Subscriber Line Access Multiplexer DWDM Dense Wave Division Multiplexing ECI Explicit Congestion Indicator ENUM Extended Numbering Internet DNS FCC Federal Communications Commission FR Frame Relay FRIACO Flat Rate Internet Call Origination FTP File Transfer Protocol GMPLS Generalised MPLS GoS Grade of Service GSM Global System for Mobile Communications gTLD generic Top Level Domain HTML Hypertext Markup Language HTTP Hypertext Transport Protocol IAB Internet Architecture Board IANA Internet Assigned Numbers Authority IBP Internet Backbone Provider ICANN Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers IETF Internet Engineering Task Force IGRP Interior Gateway Routing Protocol IntServ Integrated Services (Protocols) IP Internet Protocol IRU Indefeasible right of use ISDN Integrated Services Digital Network ISO International Organisation for Standardisation ISP Internet Service Provider ITU International Telecommunications Union IxP Internet Exchange Point LAN Local Area Network LAIN Local Area IP Network LLC Logical Link Control 173 174 Final Report LMRT Laffont, Marcus, Rey and Tirole LSP Label Switched Path M&S Malueg and Schwartz MAE Metropolitan Area Exchange MC Marginal Cost MCU Multipoint Control Unit MDF Main Distribution Frame MED Multi Exit Discriminator MGCP Media Gateway Control Protocol (Megaco) MIB Management Information Database MinCR Minimum Cell Rate MPLS Multi Protocol Label Switching MPOA Multi Protocol over ATM MR Marginal Revenue MS Management System NA not available NAP Network Access Point NAT Network Address Translation NGI Next Generation Internet NGN Next Generation Network nrt near real-time NSF National Service Foundation OAM Operation, Administration and Maintenance OC Optical Carrier OSI Open Systems Interconnection OSP Online Service Provider OSPF Open shortest path first PCR Pick Cell Rate PIR Packet or Cell Invention Ratio PLR Packet or Cell-Loss Ratio PoP Point of Presence PoS Packet over Sonet Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks PPP Point-to-Point Protocol PSTN Public Switched Telephone Network PTD Packet or Cell Transfer Delay PTDV Packet or Cell Transfer Delay Variation PTO Public Telecommunications Organisation QoS Quality of Service RAS Registration, Admission and Status RED Random Early Detection RFC Request For Comments RIP Routing Information Protocol RIPE NCC Réseause IP Européenes Network Coordination Centre RSVP Reserve ReSerVation Protocol rt real time RTCP Real-Time Control Protocol RTP Real-time Transport Protocol RTSP Real-time Streaming Protocol SCR Substantial Cellrate SDH Synchronous Digital Hierarchy SEC Securities and Exchange Commission SECBR Several Error Cell Block Ratio SIP Session Initiation Protocol SLA Service Level Agreement SME Small and Medium Enterprise SMTP Simple Mail Transport Protocol SNAP Subnetwork Access Protocol SNMP Simple Network Management System SONET Synchronous Optical Network STM Standardised Transport Module TCP Transfer Control Protocol TLD Top Level Domain TMN Telecommunication Management Network UBR Unspecified Bit Rate 175 176 Final Report UDP User Datagram Protocol UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunications System URL Uniform Resource Locator VBR Variable Bit Rate VC Virtual Circuit, Channel or Connection VLSM Variable Length Subnet Masking VoIP Voice over IP VP Virtual Path VPIPN Virtual Private IP Network WAN Wide Area Network WAIN Wide Area IP Network WDM Wave Division Multiplexing WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Kommunikationsdienste WLL Wireless Local Loop WTP Willingness to Pay Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Annexes 177 178 Final Report A Annex to Chapter 3 A-1 Names and the Domain Name System A name in the IP world has the following syntax: (ccc.(bbb)).aaa.tld where "aaa” denotes the so-called domain name and tld the Top Level Domain. “bbb” and “ccc” represent sub-domains where the brackets indicate that the sub-domains are optional. Currently there are three types of TLDs: • 243 country code (cc) TLDs defined by two-letter codes , e.g. .de for Germany or .be for Belgium, • 1 international domain (.int) reserved for international organisations, • 6 generic (g) TLDs, with three of them open to organisations world-wide (.com, .org, .net), and three (.edu, .gov, .mil) being reserved for American organisations. In addition: • 2 new generic TLDs (.biz and .info) have recently been adopted by ICANN and five others are pending (.aero, .coop, .museum, .name, .pro), • The TLD .arpa is managed jointly by IANA and IAB322 under the authority of the American government. The Domain Name System (DNS) is a distributed database comprising a great number of servers world-wide. The DNS is organised hierarchically. At the top are 13 root name servers323 (ten in the USA and one each in Stockholm, London and Tokyo). The main characteristic of these servers is that they have complete knowledge about where the name servers for the gTLds and the ccTLDs are. The top level domain servers, in turn, “know” where the domain name servers are at the level beneath them. Each organisation operating a network has its own name server, however, a name server within an organisation may reflect domains which are not visible to the outside world. The hierarchical structure of the DNS is outlined in Figure A-1. 322 IANA is short for the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority; IAB stands for the Internet Architecture Board. 323 Actually, there is one primary root server and 12 secondary root servers. ICANN coordinates the DNS system. It delegates the management of TLDs and ensures that the global database is coherent. The Internet root is a file whose maintenance is delegated by the Department of Commerce of the American Government and ICANN, to Verisign, an American company quoted on the stock exchange, which serves as a technical service provider. This file is then replicated on the other root servers. 179 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Figure A-1: Hierarchical structure of the domain name system The root node "" top-level node second-level node top-level node second-level node third-level node second-level node third-level node top-level node second-level node second-level node third-level node Source: Shaw (2001) For small companies it is usually the ISP that provides DNS administration, i.e. the updating of the respective DNS server. Big companies, however, often take care of the primary server administration themselves.324 A-2 IPv4 addressing issues Class A, B, C addresses The main logical characteristics of the Class A, B, C system are summarised in Figure A-2.325 Each Class A address requires the leftmost bit to be set to 0. The first 8 contiguous bits define the network portion of the address and the remaining 24 bits are free to assign host numbers. Each Class A address theoretically supports more than 16 million hosts. However, the number of Class A addresses is rather limited: it is equal to 27 -2.326 A Class B address requires the first two leftmost bits to be set to 1-0 followed by a 14-bit network number and a 16-bit host number. For each Class B address theoretically more than 65,000 hosts can be assigned. Altogether more than 16,000 different Class B addresses can be defined. A Class C address requires the three leftmost bits to be set to 1-1-0 followed by a 21-bit network number and an 8-bit host number. Theoretically, more than 2 million Class C addresses can be distinguished with up to 254 (i.e. 28 -2) hosts per network. 324 For more details on names and DNS see Marcus (1999, pp. 208). 325 For more information see Marcus (1999, 218) and Semeria (1996). 326 The 2 is subtracted because the all-0 network 0.0.0.0 and the network where bit 2 through 7 contain a 1 and the rest is equal to 0, (i.e. the network 127.0.0.0), are reserved for special purposes. 180 Figure A-2: Final Report Address formats of Class A, B, C addresses Class A bit # 01 78 31 0 NetworkNumber Host-Number Class B bit # 0 2 15 16 31 10 Network-Number Host-Number Class C bit # 0 3 23 24 31 110 Network-Number HostNumber Source: Semeria (1996) The Internet addressing scheme in principle offers the possibility of connecting more than 4 billion (i.e. 232) devices. It is obvious, that the • Class A address space covers 50 % • Class B address space covers 25 % and the • Class C address space covers 12,5 % of the total IPv4 address space.327 Subnetting with a fixed mask Subnetting is a concept developed around 1985. Essentially it consists of the following three elements: • The original pre-specification nature of the first three bits is kept. 32 327 The total address space offers 2 different addresses. As regards class A addresses the first bit is 31 prespecified so there are 2 alternatives which is half the total address space. With respect to Class 30 B addresses the first two bits are prespecified and, thus, the number of different alternatives is 2 which is equal to a quarter of the total address space. Concerning Class C addresses the first three 29 bits are prespecified so there are only 2 different alternatives which yields one eighth of the total name space. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 181 • A certain number of bits of the host portion of the IP address are used for identifying subnets. This is done by adding a “mask” to the IP address. • The size of the sub-networks has to be the same, i.e. the subnet masks within a network have to be the same. The first condition means that a 1 in the first bit still indicates an (original) Class A address, a 1-0 indicates an (original) Class B address and a 1-1-0 indicates an original Class C address. The second condition means that the two tiered structure of a network and a host portion within an IP address is replaced by a three tiered structure consisting of a network prefix, a subnet portion and a host portion. Network prefix and the subnet portion together are usually called the “extended network prefix”. The second condition relates to the encoding of the length of the extended network prefix. This subnet mask is also 32 bits long and consists of as many contiguous “1s” beginning leftmost as there are bits in the extended network prefix. The third condition requires the length of the extended network prefix to be the same across all subnets. An example may help to clarify this328. Suppose one has the Class C address of 193.1.1.0 and one needs 8 subnets. The IP address 193.1.1.0 can be written in full length as subnet- hostnumber number bits bits network prefix 193.1.1.0 = 11000001.00000001.00000001.00000000 Distinguishing 8 subnets requires three more bits (8 equals 23). Thus, one needs the following subnet mask: extended-network-prefix 255.255.255.224 = 11111111.11111111.11111111.11100000 27-bits resulting in a 27-bit extended network prefix. Today it is usual to use a different notation for this: /prefix-length. Thus, a 27-bit extended network prefix is equal to a /27 address.329 The eight subnets numbered 0 through 7 can be represented as follows (the bold digits identify the three bits reserved for the subnet number): 328 See Semeria (1996) for further details. 329 It is easy to see that the original Class A, B, C addresses can be denoted by /8, /16, and /24, respectively. 182 Final Report Base Net: 11000001.00000001.00000001.00000000 = 193.1.1.0/24 Subnet 0: 11000001.00000001.00000001.00000000 = 193.1.1.0/27 Subnet 1: 11000001.00000001.00000001.00100000 = 193.1.1.32/27 Subnet 2: 11000001.00000001.00000001.01000000 = 193.1.1.64/27 Subnet 3: 11000001.00000001.00000001.01100000 = 193.1.1.96/27 Subnet 4: 11000001.00000001.00000001.10000000 = 193.1.1.128/27 Subnet 5: 11000001.00000001.00000001.10100000 = 193.1.1.160/27 Subnet 6: 11000001.00000001.00000001.11000000 = 193.1.1.192/27 Subnet 7: 11000001.00000001.00000001.11100000 = 193.1.1.224/27 As there is a 27-bit network prefix 5 bits are left for defining host addresses on each subnet. Thus, in this case one is allowed to assign 30 (25 –2) hosts on each of the subnets.330 Subnetting with a fixed mask provides a much more efficient use of addresses.331 Yet, there is a considerable disadvantage with masks: once a mask is selected an organisation is stuck with the fixed-number of fixed-sized subnets. Thus, if for example there arises the need to establish a subnet with more than 30 hosts, the organisation either has to apply for a new address or it has to use more than one of the given subnets. Moreover, suppose an organisation has been assigned a /16 address with a /21 extended network prefix. This would yield 32 subnets (25), each of which supports a maximum of 2,046 hosts (211 –2). However, if the organisation with this address space wants to establish a subnet with, say, only 30 hosts, it still has to use one of the 32 subnet numbers. In effect this means there is a waste of more than 2,000 IP host addresses. Variable Length Subnet Masks To provide more flexibility to network administrators a solution to this inefficient use of addresses was developed in 1987. This approach, called Variable Length Subnet Mask (VLSM), specifies how a subnetted network could use more than one subnet mask. VLSM allows a recursive division of an organisation’s address space: if subnets are 330 2 has to be subtracted because the 'all-0s' and the 'all-1s' host addresses serve different purposes and cannot be allocated. 331 Before subnetting was applied usually an administrator of a given network had to apply for a new address from the Internet in order to be able to install a new network for his organisation. Subnetting, however, allowed that each organisation was assigned only a few network numbers from the IPv4 address space. The organisation itself could then assign distinct subnet numbers at its discretion without the need to obtain new network numbers from the Internet. . 183 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks defined one can divide a given subnet into sub-subnets. A given sub-subnet, in turn, can be further divided into subnets of subsubnets and so on. An example of this kind of recursive allocation of address space is shown in Figure A-3. Figure A-3: Recursive division of address space using VSLM 11.1.0.0/16 11.2.0.0/16 11.3.0.0/16 11.0.0.0./8 • • • 11.252.0.0/16 11.253.0.0/16 11.254.0.0/16 11.1.1.0/24 11.1.2.0/24 • • • 11.1.253.0/24 11.1.254.0/24 11.1.253.32/27 11.1.253.64/27 • • • 11.1.253.160/27 11.1.253.192/27 11.253.32.0/19 11.253.64.0/19 • • • 11.253.160.0/19 11.253.192.0/19 Source: Semeria (1996) In Figure A-3 the /8 network 11.0.0.0/8 is first divided into 254 /16 subnets. Subnet 11.1.0.0/16 is further divided into 254 /24 sub2-subnets and for sub2-subnet 11.1.253.0/24 there are once again 6 sub3-subnets. Subnet 11.253.0.0/16 is configured with altogether 6 /19 sub-networks. Of course, the latter sub-network could be further subdivided if the need arises within the organisation. At each stage VLSM requires appropriate routing masks defining the length of the respective extended network prefix. Moreover, VLSM still uses the first three bits of the address to identify if it is an original Class A, B, or C address. Classless Inter-Domain Routing CIDR gets rid of the traditional concept of class-based addressing and replaces it by a classless approach. Thus, the first three leftmost bits of an IPv4 address no longer have any particular predefined meaning. Rather, it is only the extended network prefix which marks the dividing point between the network portion and the host portion. CIDR overcomes the problem that ISP could only allocate /8, /16 or /24 addresses, as was the case in a class-based environment. With CIDR address assignment by an ISP 184 Final Report can be much more focused on the needs of its clients.332 CIDR uses prefixes anywhere from 13 to 27 bits (i.e. from /13 through /27). Thus, blocks of addresses can be assigned to networks as small as 32 hosts (25) or to those with over 500,000 hosts (219). Differences between VLSM and CIDR VLSM and CIDR have several similarities, although there are also differences.333 VLSM and CIDR both allow a portion of the address space to be divided recursively into subsequently smaller pieces. However, the differences between the two addressing schemes are more important and are as follows: • VLSM is a class-based addressing scheme while CIDR is classless. • VLSM requires the recursion to be performed on an address space previously assigned to an organisation. Thus, it is invisible to the global Internet. • CIDR, however, can be recursively applied by an Internet Registry in that an address block can be allocated, for example, to a high-level ISP, to a mid-level ISP, to a low-level ISP, and finally assigned to a private organisation. IPv6 addressing issues IP version 6 (IPv6) defines 128-bit long addresses, structured into eight 16-bit pieces. As writing out 132-bits is very cumbersome there are several conventional forms for representing IPv6 addresses as text strings. The preferred form is x: x: x: x: x: x: x: x where the “x”s are the hexadecimal values of the eight 16 bit pieces of the address. Thus, an example for an IPv6 address is FEDC:BA98:7654:3210:FEDC:BA98:7654:3210 334 If there are long strings of zero bits there is a special syntax (see Semeria 1996 for details). When dealing with a mixed environment of IPv4 and IPv6 there is an alternative form used to express an address: 332 Suppose, a client requires 900 addresses for its hosts. In a world of class-based addressing the ISP could either assign a Class B address or several Class C addresses. Assigning a full Class B address would be highly inefficient because a Class B address enables at least 65,000 hosts to hook up. Assigning Class C addresses (in this case four of them would be required) would lead to four new entries in the Internet routing table, (see the next section for more details on routing). With CIDR, however, the ISP can carve out a specific portion of its registered address space which is in keeping with the needs of the client. In this example he could, for example, assign an address block of 1,024 10 (i.e. 2 ) IP addresses. See also Semeria (1996, section on CIDR) for an empirical example. 333 We refer here to Semeria (1996). 334 In hexadecimal notation A means 10, B. means 11, C means 12 and so on. FEDC, thus, stands for 16 bits where the first four bits are equal to 15, the second four bits are equal to 14, the third four bits equal to 13 and the last four bits are equal to 12. Remember that in binary notation, e.g. the four bits "1111", are equal to 15 which in hexadecimal notation is equal to F. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 185 x:x:x:x:x:x:d.d.d.d . where the “x”s are the hexadecimal values of the six high-order 16-bit pieces of the address, and the “d”s are the decimal values of the four low-order 8-bit pieces of the address (i.e. the standard IPv4 representation). Examples are: 0:0:0:0:0:0:13.1.68.3 or 0:0:0:0:0:FFFF:129.144.52.38 IPv6, like IPv4, has a structured format, i.e. it works with a prefix portion of the address and a host portion. The text representation of IPv6 address prefixes is similar to the way IPv4 address prefixes are expressed, i.e. it is equal to IPv6 address/ prefix-length, where the prefixlength is a decimal value specifying how many of the leftmost contiguous bits of the address comprise the prefix. IPv6 will comprise three different types of addresses: • Unicast, • Anycast, • Multicast. A “unicast” address identifies a single interface.335 A packet sent to a unicast address is delivered to the interface identified by that address. An “anycast” address is an identifier for a set of interfaces (usually belonging to different nodes). A packet sent to an anycast address is delivered to one of the interfaces identified by that address.336 A “multicast” address also identifies a set of interfaces which usually belong to different nodes. However, unlike in the case of an anycast address, a packet sent to a multicast address is delivered to all interfaces identified by that address.337 The specific type of IPv6 address is indicated by the leading bits in the address.338 335 Subsequently, an interface is defined as a node’s attachment to a link. A node is a device that implements IPv6. A link is a communication facility or medium over which nodes can communicate at the link layer, i.e. the layer immediately below IPv6 in the OSI layer model. Examples of the link layer are Ethernets, Frame Relay or ATM , see Deering and Hinden (1998b). 336 Usually it will be the "nearest" one according to the measure of distance of the routing protocol. 337 Generally speaking, IPv6 addresses of all types are assigned to interfaces rather than nodes. However, nodes can also be identified in the following way. As an IPv6 unicast address refers to a single interface and since each interface belongs to a single node, any of that node’s interfaces‘ unicast addresses may be used as an identifier for the node, see Deering and Hinden (1998a, p. 2) 338 The anycast option is not known within IPv4, rather, it is a new feature of IPv6. 186 A-3 Final Report Route aggregation We have seen in section 3.1.2 that addressing is far more sophisticated today than it was in the early days of the Internet. This holds true in particular for VLSM and CIDR addressing schemes, which when used appropriately provide significantly improved routing efficiency compared to earlier schemes. VLSM VLSM permits route aggregation within an organisation which, in turn, can considerably reduce the amount of routing information that needs to be provided in order to enable communication between all hosts of an organisation’s network and between this network and the outside world. Figure A-4 illustrates this. Figure A-4: Possibility of route aggregation and reduction of routing table size by using VLSM 11.1.0.0/16 Router A 11.0.0.0/8 or 11/8 Internet 11.2.0.0/16 11.3.0.0/16 •• •• •• Router B 11.1.1.0/24 11.1.2.0/24 • • • 11.252.0.0/16 11.254.0.0/16 11.1.252.0/24 11.1.254.0/24 11.253.0.0/16 11.1.253.0/24 Router C Router D 11.253.32.0/19 11.253.64.0/19 11.1.253.32/27 11.1.253.64/27 11.1.253.96/27 11.1.253.128/27 11.1.253.160/27 11.1.253.192/27 • • • 11.253.160.0/19 11.253.192.0/19 Source: Semeria (1996) In the example illustrated in the Figure A-4 Router D summarises six subnets into a single announcement 11.1.253.0/24 which it forwards to Router B. The latter router summarises 254 subnets into an announcement 11.1.0.0/16 to Router A. Likewise, Router C summarises 6 subnets into a single announcement 11.253.0.0/16 to Router A. This structure is based on VSLM and can greatly reduce the size of an organisation’s routing tables. The subnet structure, however, need not be visible to the global Internet. Rather, Router A injects a single route 11.0.0.0/8 into the global Internet’s routing table. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 187 A routing protocol supporting VLSM has to use a forwarding policy which supports the benefits of hierarchical subnetting. In this context Semeria (1996) mentions a forwarding algorithm based on the “longest match”, i.e. all routers on a network have to use the route with the longest matching extended network prefix when they forward traffic.339 It is also obvious that the address assignment should reflect the actual network topology as this reduces the amount of routing information required.340 CIDR The global Internet routing table was growing exponentially in the 1980’s and the early 1990’s, see section 6.3 for empirical evidence on this. One of the most important factors in reducing this growth rate was the widespread deployment of CIDR.341 As the discussion in section 3.1.2 has revealed CIDR offers great flexibility as regards addressing because it is classless. CIDR enables route aggregation and it also requires a forwarding algorithm based on longest match. The logic behind CIDR is illustrated by Figure A-5, in which it is assumed that an ISP with a /20 address 200.25.16.0/20 has allocated portions of its address space to different organisations named A, B, C, D. These organisations can be ISPs or organisations that have been assigned multiple addresses. The figure reveals that: • Organisation A aggregates a total of 8 /24s into a single announcement (200.25.16.0/21); • Organisation B aggregates a total of 4 /24s into a single announcement (200.25.24.0/22); • Organisation C aggregates a total of 2 /24s into a single announcement (200.25.28.0/23), and • Organisation D aggregates a total of 2 /24s into a single announcement (200.25.30.0/23). 339 An example may make this clear: Suppose that a packet is addressed to the host 11.1.252.7 and there are three network prefixes in the routing table: 11.1.252.0/24, 11.1.0.0/16 and 11.0.0.0/8. In this case the router will select the 11.1.252.0/24 route because this prefix matches best. Of course the actual match is not required on the basis of the dotted decimal notation, rather, it is checked on the basis of the binary 32 bit representation of the IP address. 340 The amount of routing information is reduced if the set of addresses assigned to a particular region of the topology can be aggregated into a single routing announcement for the entire set, see Semeria (1996). 341 Marcus (1999, p. 221) mentions as additional factors the introduction of dynamic IP addressing to dialup users and the deployment of Application Layer Gateways /ALGs). 188 Final Report Figure A-5: CIDR and Internet routing tables Internet Service Provider Internet 200.25.0.0/16 200.25.16.0/21 200.25.16.0/24 200.25.17.0/24 200.25.18.0/24 200.25.19.0/24 200.25.20.0/24 200.25.21.0/24 200.25.22.0/24 200.25.23.0/24 200.25.24.0/22 200.25.24.0/24 200.25.25.0/24 200.25.26.0/24 200.25.27.0/24 200.25.16.0/20 200.25.28.0/23 200.25.28.0/24 200.25.29.0/24 Organization C 200.25.30.0/23 200.25.30.0/24 200.25.31.0/24 Organization D Organization B Organization A Source: Semeria (1996) Finally, it can be seen that the ISP only makes a single announcement into the global Internet (200.25.0.0/16). Thus, in the global routing tables all these different networks and hosts are represented by a single Internet route entry. A important drawback to the otherwise considerable advantages brought by CIDR arises if an organisation decides to change its ISP. This has required the organisation to either completely change its address space, or for the new ISP to announced the organisation’s original address space. This situation is highlighted in Figure A-6.342 Figure A-6 shows Organisation A is initially a client of ISP 1, i.e. the routes to Organisation A are aggregated by ISP 1 into a single announcement. As CIDR uses the longest match forwarding principle, Internet routers will route traffic to host 200.25.17.25 to ISP 1 which forwards the traffic to Organisation A (Stage 1). Stage 2 indicates that Organisation A wants to become a client of ISP 2. If Organisation A gives back its address space to ISP 1 and uses instead address space of ISP 2, there will be no effect on the Internet routing table (Stage 2). If, however, Organisation A can convince ISP 1 that the address space remains with Organisation A then ISP 2 has to announce an exception route in addition to its previous address space (Stage 3), i.e. ISP 2 announces both its own 199.30.0.0/16 address block and a route for 200.25.16.0/21. 342 This also raises customer switching costs. A reduction in these costs is one of the advantages of switching to IPv6. We discuss these issues in Chapter 8. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 189 The longest match forwarding algorithm will mean that traffic to host 200.25.17.25 will be routed to ISP 2 and not to ISP 1. Figure A-6: The effect of a change of an ISP on routing announcements in a CIDR environment stage 1 200.25.16.0/21 200.25.0.0./16 Internet Service Provider #1 Organization A "200.25.17.25" Internet 199.30.0.0/16 Internet Service Provider #2 stage 2 200.25.0.0/16 Internet Service Provider #1 Organization A Internet 199.30.0.0/16 Internet Service Provider #2 stage 3 200.25.0.0/16 Internet Service Provider #1 Internet 199.30.0.0/16 200.25.16.0/21 Source: Semeria (1996) Organization A "200.25.17.25" 200.25.16.0/21 Internet Service Provider #2 190 Final Report B Annex to Chapter 4 B-1 Internet protocols, architecture and QoS IP/ TCP/UDP The basic features of the TCP/IP protocol which is the basis for Internet communication were defined in 1974,343 and later revised by Postel.344 In common with the Open Systems Interconnection (OSI) seven-layer protocol stack, the Internet rests on a layered model, as can be seen from Figure B-1. In their combined form as written TCP/IP signifies a suite of over 100 protocols that perform lower level functions. IP (Internet protocol) and TCP (transmission control protocol) do, however, bear the largest share of the workload in layer 3. Figure B-1: OSI and Internet protocol stack Layer 7 – Application Applications and Services Layer 6 – Presentation Layer 5 – Session TCP or UDP Layer 4 – Transport IP Layer 3 – Network Layer 2 - Data Link Layer 2 - Data Link Layer 1 - Physical Layer 1 – Physical Source: Smith and Collins (2002, p. 327) At layer 1 and 2 there are a multitude of different fixed-link networks (e.g. ISDN, LANs, ATM-networks, SDH-networks, and (D)WDM) that can transport IP traffic. The Internet Protocol (IP) as such corresponds to layer 3 and is completely independent of the lower levels. IP routes datagrams, provides fragmentation and reassembly of (lengthy) datagrams, and also provides an addressing service. Each packet has an IP-address in its header. IP provides for the carriage of datagrams from source host to destination host. Thus, different packets may take different routes and they can have different 343 See Cerf and Kahn (1974) 344 Postel (1981a) and (1981b). 191 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks levels of delay in their delivery. Viewed as such, IP alone provides no guarantees regarding delivery, error recovery, flow control, or reliability.345 However, IP protocol supports a multitude of different services and applications, which can be subdivided into three different groups:346 • Connection-oriented data applications; • Connection-less data applications, and • Real time voice / audio video and multimedia applications. These different groups of applications require different transport protocols, as is indicated in Figure B-2. Figure B-2: Protocol-architecture enabling multi-service networking with IP Connection oriented data applications connection free data applications Voice / Audio / Video applications Signaling protocols RTP, RTCP Signaling protocols TCP UDP RSVP IP Transmission networks (LANs, ISDN, ATM networks, SDH/SONET-networks, (D) WDM Source: Badach (2000) Connection-oriented data applications include file transfer (FTP) and HTTPapplications. They use the transport protocol TCP. Generally speaking, connectionoriented data applications are those which require a virtual connection, i.e. an “agreement” between the two devices communicating with each other about the control of the communication. TCP performs this task. It is intended to provide for service 345 These functions are left to TCP or UDP, and in more recent times to a range of other protocols that we discuss below. 346 In the following we rely heavily on Badach (2000) and Smith and Collins (2002). 192 Final Report reliability. It verifies the correct delivery of data between sender and receiver and triggers retransmission of lost or dropped datagrams. TCP/IP operates independently of the maker of an ISP’s equipment. Application layer protocols operate on top of TPC/IP and it is these that provide meaningful service that customers are prepared to pay for (e.g. FTP, TELNET, SMTP, HTTP). The current version of IP is IPv4 which is described within a general theme of Internet routing in Chapter 3 and in Annex A. TCP also has some inherent features that can be seen as providing a form of congestion management and quality monitoring. But in this regard TCP does not meet the needs of real time applications where packets have to be delivered within a limited time and in the proper order. Packets might not be delivered within the required time when using TCP under congested conditions, and some packets may actually be discarded. This occurs when queuing during congestion results in overflow, indicating congestion to sending TCP controlled devices, and sending slows down. Each TCP device then starts to increase its sending rate. Thus, there is a cycle of increase and decrease which provides rate adaptation on the Internet.347,348 During periods of serious congestion this system encourages end-users to reduce their demand on the Internet. Hence, TCP works as a crude form of congestion management. Connection-less data applications are those that do not require a virtual connection such as to provide a sequential transfer of multiple packets. Rather it is meant for a simple request-response types of transactions. An example is Internet network management under the SNMP or the Domain Name Service (DNS). These applications use the protocol UDP (User Datagram Protocol) for communication. UDP is a simple protocol which allows for the identification of the source and destination of a communications link. Contrary to the applications typically provided by TCP, voice/audio and video applications have particular bandwidth requirements and are time-sensitive. For these types of applications, especially for speech, UDP is chosen instead of TPC. The reason is mainly technical. For speech, delay (latency) and jitter (latency variation) are far more crucial in practice to the viability of the service than is a limited amount of packet loss. Even though UDP offers no protection against packet loss it is much better than TCP as regards delay. However, UDP has to be supported by additional features to offer reasonable voice quality. RTP For real-time applications support for UDP is typically provided by RTP. The suite of real-time protocols, which sits on top of UDP in the protocol stack is comprised of the 347 Jacobson (1988), in Clark (1997), and RFC813. 348 Where DiffServ is used, Random Early Detection (RED) is used to avoid the sort of queuing that would result in a TPC causing a slow down. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 193 Real-time Transport Protocol (RTP), Real-time Control Protocol (RTCP), and Real-time Streaming Protocol (RTSP).349 It is primarily designed to enable multi-participant multimedia conferences. RTP does not address resource reservation or guarantee QoS. It does not even guarantee datagram delivery. It relies on lower layers to provide these functions. RTP provides additional information for each packet that allows the receiver to reconstruct the correct packet sequence. The RTP Control Protocol (RTCP) does not carry packets, rather, it is a signalling protocol which provides feedback between session users regarding the quality of service of the session.350 RTP is designed with multi-media multi participant 'hook-ups' in mind. One of its main advantages is its scalable interface with transport layer protocols.351 When operating over an ATM transport layer, sequence number and timestrap information take up roughly half of the required overhead. Moreover, RTP can only be used in relative stable (uncongested) conditions under the premise that it is implemented in all corresponding routers, currently only the case inside of Intranets. We discuss ATM below. Resource reSerVation Protocol To enable real-time applications, especially voice over IP (VoIP), the protocols discussed in the preceding subsections are not able to provide to sort of QoS statistics required. There is an approach which enables resources to be reserved for a given session prior to any exchange of content between hosts or communicating partners, and this can provide the sort of QoS required for real-time applications. One such protocol is the Resource reSerVation Protocol (RSVP). RSVP is a control protocol which does not carry datagrams. Rather, these are transported after the reservation procedures have been performed through the use of RTP.352 RSVP uses a token bucket algorithm. Tokens are collected by a logical token bucket as a means of controlling transmission rate and burst duration. The simple token bucket algorithm relies on two parameters: the average transmission rate and logical bucket depth. Arriving packets are checked to see if their length is less than the tokens in the bucket. Three additional parameters are sometimes also operated: a maximum packet size, a peak flow rate, and a minimum policed unit. The way the RSVP traffic shaper works 349 Thus, in principle a packet of coded voice is augmented by an RTP header and it is sent as the payload of an RTP packet. The header contains e.g. information about the voice coding scheme being used, a sequence number, a timestamp for the instant at which the voice packet was sampled and an identification for the source of the voice packet. See Smith and Collins (2002, p. 329). RTP in addition equilibrates to some degree jitter effects caused by the network. 350 The type of information that is exchanged includes e.g. lost RTP packets, delay, and inter-arrival jitter. 351 See Black (1999) for a detailed discussion. 352 RSVP requires in addition, signalling protocols to make these reservations, (discussed further below). However, reservation is only possible if all routers involved in the transmission support RSVP. 194 Final Report implies that some packets will have to wait so that the flow of packets conforms with the average rate, peak rate, and maximum burst duration set by the RSVP algorithm. There are three service classes specified by the IETF: 1. Best Effort; 2. Controlled Load, and 3. Guaranteed Service. As opposed to ATM which is connection oriented, IP and RSVP is connectionless and QoS attributes only apply to a flow of packets and not to virtual channels or paths, as in the case with ATM. RSVP degrades to a best effort service where congestion points become critical. As the guaranteed QoS option known as IntServ, requires RSVP as a partner, we therefore address RSVP further in the section below which discusses IntServ. IntServ IntServ (integrated services) architecture is designed to provide a means of controlling end-to-end QoS per data flow.353 It does this in conjunction with Resource reSerVation Protocol (RSVP) and by controlling the admission of packets onto the Internet. The technology is designed to enable QoS statistics to be raised to several levels, thus making it possible for real-time applications to run on the Internet. The need for admission control follows from there being many traffic flows sharing available capacity resources. During periods of heavy usage each flow request would only be admitted if it did not crowd out other previously admitted flows. Link sharing criteria are therefore specified during such periods, but typically do not operate during periods of low utilisation. Packets that are not labelled as requiring priority will form the group from which packets are dropped when network congestion begins to reach the point when stated QoS statistics are threatened. In 2000 the IntServ model offered two service classes, with standards specified by the Integrated Services Working Group of the IETF: (i) the controlled load service class, and (ii) guaranteed QoS class. 353 This section draws on work by Knight and Boroumand (2000), Desmet, Gastaud, and Petit (1999), and McDysan (2000). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 195 The QoS offered by the former during periods when the network is in high demand, is similar to the QoS provided by an unloaded network not using IntServ technology, such as is provided today on a backbone during uncongested periods. For this option to work the network needs to be provided with estimates of the demands required by users' traffic so that resources can be made available. The guaranteed QoS class focuses on minimum queuing delays and guaranteed bandwidth. This option has no set-up mechanism or means of identifying traffic flows, and so needs to be used along with RSVP. The receiver of packets needs to know the traffic specification that is being sent so the appropriate reservation can be made, and for this to occur, the path the packets will follow on their route between sender and receiver needs to be known. When the request arrives at the first routers along this path the path’s availability is checked and if confirmed the request is passed to the next router. If capacity is not available on any router on this path an error message is returned. The receiver will then resend the reservation request after a small delay. Figure B-3: Integrated services capable router RSVP Messages Control plane/Functions Routing module Signal module Classifier Policing Admission module Data Scheduling Data Path/Forwarding Source: Desmet, Gastaud and Petit (1999) The traffic management control functions required of IntServ routers are shown in Figure B-3. Explanations for these are as follows:354 • Signalling to maintain a flow specific state on the pathway – known as RSVP. 354 See Desmet et al (1999) for a more complete explanation. 196 Final Report • Admission control to prevent new flows where these would affect QoS for previously admitted flows. • Classifier to identify packets according to their particular QoS class. • Policing of flows to enforce customer traffic profiles. • Scheduler which selects and forwards packets according to a particular rule. There are several drawbacks with the IntServ / RSVP model: • RSVP has low scalability due to router processing and memory requirements that increase proportionately with separate RSVP requests. • The IntServ model takes only very partial account of economic efficiency by enabling different prices to be charged for different levels of service. There is no (economic) mechanism that would prevent users from cornering network resources, an issue apparently given little consideration by designers. • The complexity of the IntServ RSVP model is thought by many to mean it is very unlikely to be the way forward for the 'public' Internet, but it may well find a market in intranets, corporate networks, and VPIPNs. DiffServ DiffServ (differentiated services) architecture is designed to operate at the edges of networks bases on expected congestion rather than actual congestion along paths. It is thus a service based on expected capacities, and as is implied by this description, there is no guaranteed QoS for any particular flow. As with the standard Internet, DiffServ technology is still based on statistical bandwidth provisioning. DiffServ technology is intended to lift QoS statistics for packets that are marked accordingly. DiffServ will support several different QoS standards in the Differentiated Services Code Point (DSCP) in the packet header. Figure B-4 shows this part of the header for IPv4 packets.355 Marking of the DSCP will normally only need to occur once, at a DS network boundary or in the user network. All data shaping, policing and per flow information occurs at network edges. This means that DiffServ has considerable scaling advantages over IntServ. 355 Under Ipv6 DiffServ can not apply the TOS field because the basic header does not contain it. However, it will implemented under the field of a corresponding extension to the basic header. 197 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Figure B-4: Differentiated services field in the IP packet header 0 1 2 3 4 Differentiated Services Code Point Pool 1 DSCP codepoints xxxxxo 5 6 7 Currently unused Assignment policy Standards action Source: McDysan (2000) DiffServ requires that a service profile is defined for each user, the pricing of which will be determined between the ISP and end-user. The subscriber is then allocated a token bucket which is filled at a set rate over time, and can accumulate tokens only until the bucket is full. As packets arrive for the user, tokens are removed. However, all packets whether tagged or not, arrive in no particular order (as occurs with the present Internet). Under congested conditions, while the user has tokens in credit, all her packets will be marked as “in profile”, and packets not tagged as “in” form the group from which packets are dumped under congested conditions. Otherwise routers do not discriminate between packets. This is said to make the system much easy to implement than is the case with IntServ. The flexibility of the system allows service providers to match the expectation of QoS to expected performance levels, such that numbers of different performance levels (and prices) can in principle be provided. There are, however, no specified standards for the detailing of expected capacity profiles. This function is left open for ISPs enabling them to design their own service offering. The down-side of this, however, is that without agreement and performance transparency between networks, the service would only operate “on-net”. The possibility exists that DiffServ and IntServ could be used together, with IntServ being used outside the core where QoS is poorest and where scaling issues are least problematic, and DiffServ would be used in the core (i.e. the trunking part) of the Internet where the expectations based service could suffice to provide QoS that endusers find sufficiently reliable such that it can be used for real-time service provision in direct competition with the PSTN. It is important to note, that DiffServ coexists with multicast and allows the construction and updating of the corresponding multicast tree, which is not the case for IntServ. Rather than employing IntServ outside the core, however, it appears that MPLS is presently being considered for this task. Further development of accounting and billing systems to be used with DiffServ is necessary for service providers to build a value chain. Accounting architectures are currently being developed that support management of Internet resources. These architectures will also manage pricing and accounting of different classes of services 198 Final Report and service levels. Middleware technologies such as enhanced IP-multicast facilitate a new range of communication applications.356 Relevant issues are technical as well as strategic.357 In the last couple of years the IETF has been looking into accounting and billing systems. DiffServ is apparently being used by KPNQwest, Telenor and Telia to provide improved QoS in parts of their networks.358,359 However, a number of backbones appear to be interested in alternatives like MPLS. Figure B-8 (top) in Annex B-2 shows the technology options that network managers consider are most important for QoS. With networks needing to work with different protocols, some networks may be simultaneously pursuing several potentially (partially) substitutable technologies for improved QoS. However, we already have the impression that network designers tend to be looking elsewhere for long-term solutions to QoS problems on the Internet. One part of the cutting-edge regarding QoS seems to have moved to facilitating convergence between optical and data network layers under the concept of Packet over SONET (PoS). For its implementation various providers proposed an extension of MPLS named generalised MPLS protocol (GMPLS) which integrates the control function of the IP layer with layer 2 (the optical layer).360 This new concept may help enable the handling of connections to be moved from proprietary network management, with both routing and signalled being done through the transport layer. GMPLS is one technology that can bring this about. It is thought that these developments will go a long way toward overcoming “onnet” to “off-net” QoS problems that are presently problematic in the development of the next generation Internet. ATM and AAL IP over ATM relies on routing at the edges and switching in the core, consistent with the modern approach to network design – “route once and switch many”. While IP is a packet oriented soft state (connectionless) technology located at layer 3 on the ISO scheme, ATM is a cell oriented hard state (connection oriented) technology located at layer 2 of the ISO scheme.361 IP over ATM is an overlay model involving two different protocol architectures that were not originally designed to work with each other. IP 356 See Internet Engineering Task Force: http://www.ietf.org/html.charters/diffserv-charter.html. A market based bandwidth management model for DiffServ networks with the implementation of bandwidth brokers has been proposed recently by Hwang, et al (2000). 357 Examples of technical issues are: what kind of accounting architectures should be developed for the next generation of Internet, and what type of middleware components are necessary. Strategic issues include the evolution of the Internet service portfolio, the influence of technologies and architectures on the opportunities for existing players and new entrants, the strategic importance of technologies and the development of alliances. 358 See Ray Le Maistre, 10 January 2002, Corporate Solutions. www.totaltele.com 359 See Elizabeth Biddlecomb, 1 March 2001,"IP QoS: feel the quality”. www.totaltele.com 360 See Lobo and Warzanskyj (2001); Awduche and Rekhter (2001). 361 This section draws mainly on Black (1999), Marcus (1999) and McDysen (2000); Kercheval (1997). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 199 routing operates at the edges with IP providing for the intelligent handling of applications and services for end-users. To forward datagrams in the core, IP routing is replaced by ATM's label swapping algorithm, which for this function has much improved price / performance compared to IP routing, although with technological progress this advantage may not last into the medium term. IP packet headers contain the information which enables them to be forwarded over the network. IP routing is based on the destination of the packet, with the actual route being decided on a hop-by-hop basis. At each router the packet is forwarded depending on network load, such that the next hop is not known with certainty prior to each router making this decision. This can result in packets that encapsulate a particular communication going via different routes to the same destination.362 This design means that packets arrive in different order than they are sent in, requiring buffering. ATM is connection oriented, meaning that datagrams are sent along predetermined paths. This feature results in the network being more predictable. Other reasons why ISPs have adopted IP over ATM include: • ATM's traffic engineering capabilities including an ability to rapidly shift bandwidth between applications, when it is needed; • ATM's definitive datagram forwarding performance, and • ATM’s QoS advantages. The stand-out feature which helps explain all three reasons is ATM's label swapping algorithm. In the mid 1990s ISPs began using ATM in the transport layer. ATM enabled them to multiplex IP and other traffic over an ATM core network. Although there is evidence that many large ISPs had adopted MPLS (a potential ATM substitute - discussed below) by the end of 2001, most operators in Europe were still using ATM as a transport protocol, with many of them unlikely to use MPLS as an ATM replacement in the near future.363 ATM provides a cell relay service with a wide set of QoS attributes.364 ATM provides cells of a constant length and in so doing provides a significant improvement in processing in the ATM switches, although this is of reducing significant due to hardware improvements in regard to modern routers. As ATM is connection oriented (i.e. it is based on virtual channels) it does not need to transport timing and sequencing information with datagrams, as does IP in the RTP header. 362 This is what is meant by a connectionless network. 363 Judge (1999), "MPLS still in fashion" 364 On large ISP networks ATM is provided over SDH (standardised transport module STM-1 = 155.52 Mbps). In the USA there are a similar standard denoted SONET, with a basic frame of 51 Mbit/s SDS1 equivalent in the optical domain to an optical carrier OC1. 200 Final Report There are, however, several negative aspects to running IP over ATM. There is a loss of efficiency due to small cell size, and when IP packets are converted into ATM cells scarce header space is used which shrinks the useful payload per cell. ATM has been described as imposing 22% "cell tax” merely due to the packing of IP into ATM, although compared to existing frame-based protocols a 10% to 20% cell tax is more likely depending on packet size.365,366 Where small amounts of information are sent this problem tends to be compounded as information that will not fit into one cell is carried by another similarly sized cell that may be almost empty. Moreover, with IP and ATM operating on two quite different design principles, each with its own addressing system, routing protocols, signalling protocols, and schemes for allocating resources, the network is very complex with mapping required between the two protocol architectures, and requiring two separate sets of kit. However, ATM appears to remain the most popular option for ISPs although most experts appear to believe that this will change over the next few years. There are also scalability difficulties with IP over ATM, including the "n-squared” problem. This occurs because in order for routers to exchange information with all other peers they must be fully meshed, giving rise to the n-squared problem shown in Figure B-5, in which five routers are shown requiring 10 virtual channels to maintain adjacency. Each time a packet is routed a routing table has to be consulted. A complete set of IP addresses that are available to the network must in principle be maintained at each router – although in practice the information is held as IP prefixes rather than complete tables. Figure B-5: Fully-meshed IP routers – the n2 problem Router A Router E Router B Router D Router C Source: WIK-Consult 365 McDysan (2000). 366 With IP/RTP operating over an ATM transport layer, sequence number and timestrap information take up roughly half of this overhead. MPLS uses less header space than ATM and this is one of the reasons large ISPs are presently converting to it. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 201 Other scaling problems concern; the stress put on IGP; bandwidth limitations of ATM SAR interfaces, and the inability to operate over non-ATM infrastructure.367 In the absence of layer 2 and layer 3 concatenation technology (e.g. MPLS, which is still under development and discussed below), ATM requires the ATM adaptation layer (AAL) in order to link with upper layer protocols. AAL converts packets into ATM cells and at the delivery end it does the contrary. Data comes down the protocol stack and receives an AAL header which fits inside the ATM payload. It enables ATM to accommodate the QoS requirements specified by the end-system. There are four AAL protocols: AAL1, AAL2, AAL3/4 and AAL5: AAL1: constant bit rate, Suitable for video and voice; AAL2: variable length, low bit rate, delay sensitive. (Suitable for voice telephony and the fixed network part of GSM networks); AAL3/4: intended for connectionless and assured data service. Not thought to cope well with lost or corrupt cells, and AAL5: intended for non assured data services. Used for Multi-protocol Over ATM (MPOA) and recommended for IP.368 A feature of ATM is that ISP transit customers can negotiate service level agreements for connections that deliver a specified quality of service. Classes supported by UNI 4.0 are: constant bit rate (CBR); variable bit rate, real-time (VBR-rt); variable bit rate, nonreal-time (VBR-nrt); available bit rate (ABR), and unspecified bit rate (UBR). Service definition is related to corresponding grade-of-service (GoS) and QoS parameters. As already seen the GoS parameter indicates the conditions under which the user can invoke the service. In traditional circuit switched networks GoS means the probability that a user gets the service in the period of peak usage – often defined by the ‘busy-hour’. Modern multimedia services allow the QoS conditions that will apply to a connection or the selection between different predetermined service types (e.g. video with different coding schemes) to be negotiated. Hence the definition of the corresponding GoS parameter is more complex due to the possibility of a renegotiation of the QoS parameter values. As noted above, QoS parameters define the quality of an established connection. For traditional services offered through circuit switching, the network architecture guaranties these parameters, while in modern packet or cell switched networks these parameter must be negotiated in the connection establishment phase and controlled during the connection. 367 Semeria (1999). 368 This is the service used for the Internet. Others are contracted for but we understand the service is not part of the public Internet. 202 Final Report QoS on ATM networks is maintained by a combination of four main features. These are: • Traffic shaping, which is performed by sending devices; • Traffic policing, which is performed by switching devices; • Congestion control (needed most notably in the case of ABR), and • Cell priority (two states low and high, where the low state cells are candidates for deletion in case of congestion). Traffic shaping is performed at the user network interface. It checks that traffic falls within the specifications of the contract with the receiving network. Traffic policing is performed by the ATM network through a logical leaky bucket system.369 The bucket leaks at a specific negotiated rate, irrespective of rate cells flow into the bucket, i.e. there is an input rate and a limit parameter).370 The full range of possible parameters which can be contracted for are compared in Table 1-B against the five ATM Forum defined QoS categories.371,372 Table B-1: QoS and ATM Forum service categories CBR VBR-rt VBR-nrt ABR UBR CLR --- CTD --- --- CDV --- --- --- PCR SCR --- --- --- MinCR --- --- --- --- ECI --- --- --- --- Notes: Source: 369 370 371 372 CLR: cell loss rate, Hackbarth and Eloy (2001) CTD: cell time delay, CDV: cell delay variation, PCR: pick cell rate, SCR: substantial cell rate, MinCR: minimal cell rate, ECI: explicit congestion indication, CBR: constant bit rate, VBR-rt: variable bit rate, real-time, VBR-nrt: variable bit rate, non-real-time, ABR: available bit rate, and UBR: unspecified bit rate. Also know as a generic cell rate algorithm (GCRA). Roughly similar devices have been designed to operate with IP, and we discuss these below. For more details see Black (1999); Haendler et al ATM Networks Addision Wesley 3 ed. 1998. The RSVP protocol which operates with IP and is a necessary inclusion with DiffServ architecture, links into this functionality[0]. 203 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks The suitability of ATM service categories to applications is shown in Table B-2. For services that require higher quality of service features like real-time voice and interactive data and video, ATM networks can be configured to provide sustained bandwidth, and low latency and jitter, i.e. to appear like a dedicated circuit. Table B-2: Suitability of ATM Forum service categories to applications Applications CBR VBR-rt VBR-nrt ABR UBR Critical data Good Fair Best Fair No LAN interconnect Fair Fair Good Best Good WAN data transport Fair Fair Good Best Good Circuit Emulation Best Good No No No Telephony Best Good No No No Video conferencing Best Good Fair Fair Poor Compressed audio Fair Best Good Good Poor Video distribution Best Good Fair No No Interactive multimedia Best Best Good Good Poor Source: McDyson (2000) For high grade virtual circuits complimented by user admission control, QoS can receive higher statistical guarantees (in a smaller interval of limits) as for datagram networks. But in any case, QoS is complex and dependent on many factors that can in practice degrade QoS. The common causes of QoS degradation in ATM networks are noted in Table B-3. Table B-3: Factors that can degrade an ATM network's QoS Attribute CER SECBR CLR CMR Switch architecture Buffer capacity Number of tandem nodes Traffic load Failures CDV Propagation delay Media error statistics CTD Resource allocation Notes: CER = cell error ratio; Source: Black (1999) SECBR= severely errored cell block ratio; CLR = cell loss ratio; CMR = cell misinsertion rate; CTD = cell transfer delay; CDV = cell delay variation 204 Final Report In practice many of the QoS attributes of ATM are not readily available to ISPs as ATM must be used with other embedded protocols, and because protocols that link IP and ATM layers are complex and do not readily provide for the QoS attributes of ATM to be usefully deployed by IP over ATM. The development of application programming interfaces would have the effect of making the QoS attributes of ATM more accessible to end-systems running IP over ATM. This would increase the prospect of IP over ATM providing QoS features that are useful to end-users such as where ATM runs from desktop to desktop. While 4 or 5 years ago, ATM was thought by many to be the means by which the next generation Internet would become a reality, it appears to be at the mature stage of its product life-cycle and this being the case we would expect its popularity to decline among large ISPs. We understand that some large ISPs are already converting to MPLS. Figure B-8 in Annex B-2 provides information to this effect. We can not comment on the questionnaire or the margin of error that relates to these two figures. Multiprotocol over ATM Multiprotocol over ATM (MPOA) is an evolution of LANE and combines switching and routing. It encapsulates data frames, not necessarily IP packets, in an LLC/SNAP frame which is transmitted via AAL-5. In contrast to LANE which provides layer 2 switching inside of a subnet, MPOA provides layer 3 routing/switching between sub-networks inside of an AS. It offers quality of service advantages for IP over ATM by enabling QoS guarantees to be provided where hosts are in different sub-networks. MPOA has better scalability then LANE but as it is primarily a campus technology, we do not discuss it further in this study. SDH and OC The current network architecture for the physical layer of large ISPs is synchronous digital hierarchy (SDH) in Europe and SONET in North America. The present practice is for ATM to be provided over SDH (standardised transport module STM-1 = 155.52 Mbps).373 When ATM is not used there is a direct mapping of IP packets into an STM-1 frame. In physical backbone networks with SDH architecture it is normal for an STM-1 structure to be routed and maintained via corresponding digital cross connect equipment DX4 over an optical fibre cable topology with corresponding STM-N point to point transmission systems DX4. Note that STM-1 routing is a pure SDH management function and the flexibility in rerouting or resetting of STM-1 depends on the MS implementation being used by the operator. 373 In the USA there is a similar standard named SONET, with a basic frame of 51 Mbit/s SDS1 equivalent in the optical domain to an optical carrier OC1. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 205 A physical backbone network based on SDH architecture may integrate various logical layers, such as PSDN/ISDN, Frame Relay (FR) data service, and IP networks, as is shown by Figure 4.1 in the main report. The rerouting facility of the DX4 equipment enables the assignment and re-assignment of physical capacity to the IP layer when congestion is becoming a problem. Due to the length of time this function takes (at least 10 times longer than the reaction of IP routing protocols) this facility has limited practicality and is mainly applied in case of failures within a transmission system or the corresponding fibre cable. In the longer term there may be only two network layers in the core of the Internet (e.g. (i) IP/MPLS and (ii) the optical layer.374 MPLS Multi-Protocol Label Switching (MPLS) is a form of WAN IP-switched architecture which maps labelled IP packets directly into an SDH frame (STM-1 or STM-4). Along with the evolution of WDM/DWDM transmission technology and corresponding line terminals on backbone routers,375 MPLS provides a direct interface with the optical layer.376 As with all multi-layer switching, MPLS addresses the interrelated issues of network performance and scalability. One of the main problems it addresses is routing bottlenecks, especially the back-up of datagrams where tradition routers employ the same amount of processing for each and every packet, even if the stream of packets is being sent to the same address. Both hardware-based routing and label based routing are used so that packets can be routed and switched at line-speed. Label based switching and label routing is used to traverse the core of the network, with full routing only being performed at the edges of the network. However, a negative aspect of MPLS is the fact that it is based on virtual circuits in contradiction to the concept of an all datagram network. One problem that arises because of this is that there are no standardised solutions for working with multicast protocols. Hence the protocols for multicast routing have to work in parallel to MPSL due to a large number of multicast trees that need to be dynamically maintaining. MPLS was designed with a view to integrating the best attributes of layer 2 and layer 3 technologies. It provides the same advantages as MPOA but is not limited to campus networks because it does not require a common ATM infrastructure but only that all routes involved implement the correct protocol. Like MPOA, MPLS integrates switching functionality with IP routing. It is an end-to-end signalling protocol which attaches labels to packets at edge routers, and switches them in the core network through the swapped of labels, creating label switched paths (LSP). This latter functionality is a similar to that used by ATM where VPIs and VCIs virtual path connections are created. The ATM algorithm was pretty much carried over to MPLS by EITF designers. With MPLS, a 374 See Melian et. al. (2002) and Bogaert (2001). 375 As are provided by Alcatel[0], CISCO, JUNIPER and others. 376 Typically OC-48 (STM-16) or in same cases even OC192 (STM-64). 206 Final Report logical MPLS routing network is created above the layer 2/1 e.g. FR, ATM or a pure SDH or optical network enabling virtual connections with QoS guarantees to be provided. Similarly to ATM, MPLS does this by establishing a virtual end-to-end connection, and packets are then routed over this connection. MPLS is intended to be an IETF standardised multi-layer switching solution drawing on several proprietary solutions that were developed around the mid 1990s.377 While the label swapping algorithm means that MPLS and ATM have much in common in their layer-2 operation, there are several important differences between them: • MPLS was designed to operate with IP, whereas ATM was not; • Virtual Private Intranets can be provided using MPLS; • MPLS connects over more than one network (e.g. IAcN, IBbN, IacN) with the principle tunnelling and label stack (where each network in the connection provides a label entry in the label stack;378 • MPLS is designed to run on top of each second layer architecture, and • MPLS is not easily scalable as it requires label assignment and the construction of label tables. The reduction of the number of sub-layers from the complete IP-AAL-ATM-SDH-optical protocol stack to a simple IP-MPLS-OC one (see Figure B-7) has cost advantages for broadband applications, especially under high traffic load. However, there is a trade-off with this approach as with the cancelling of each intermediate sub-layer the management facilities are reduced resulting in a sharp reduction on the degree of capacity utilisation, especially in the lowest layer. Moreover, in case of network failure the restoration of the lost capacity tends to be difficult, and to restore the entire previous capacity may on occasions be practically impossible. We understand that it may be quit expensive to implement the simple architecture as it requires almost a doubling of the layer three structure in order for the service to remain viable, and to protect the physical layer with a 1:1 or N:M concept,379 On the other hand, the costs of maintaining SDH or ATM infrastructure are avoided. 377 This includes Cisco's tag-switching, which has much in common with MPLS, not surprisingly as experts from Cisco (and other hardware and software manufacturers) were represented in the EITF MPLS design team. See Semeria (1999) for a discussion of proprietary forerunners to MPLS. 378 See Protokolle und Dienste der Informationstechnologie Vol 2 INTEREST Verlag 2001) 379 See Lobo and Warzansky (2001). 207 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Figure B-6: Seven layer by three planes OSI model Global Management plan Layer Management plan Control plan Upper Layers User Info plan Upper Layers Fig. ITU functional model Network Layer Network Layer Link Layer Link Layer Physical Layer Physical Layer Future architectures Different future architectures result from different types of wide area Internet (WAIN) implementation, each of them with corresponding advantages and disadvantages. We use the OSI layer model shown in Figure B-6 below to show different options for WAIN implementation in Figure B-7. Logical layer Figure B-7: Network layer Types of layered architectures Layer Complete architecture Reduced architecture Simple architecture 4 TCP/UDP TCP/UDP TCP/UDP 3b IP IP IP Label Routing 3a Data-link layer Physical layer 2b AAL TAG Switching Label Switching Label Routing TAG Switching Label Switching 2a ATM --- --- 1b SDH * SDH * --- 1a OC OC OC Notes: * SONET is used in North America rather than SDH. Source: WIK-Consult 208 Final Report The 'complete architecture' provides a WAIN implementation with a high degree of flexibility regarding traffic grouping and routing facilities. It is supported by internationally accepted standardised protocols, and large European operators have implemented this form. On the negative side the 'complete architecture' results in high protocol overhead which substantially reduces the degree of utilisation of lower layer capacities, and imposes a strong requirement for network OAM (operation administration and maintenance) functions. It may also be the most costly solution.380 The second solution, the 'reduced architecture', substitutes IP switching equipment (e.g. MPLS) for the AAL- ATM layer, but maintains the electrical SDH level. The advantage of the reduced architecture is a reduction in protocol overhead and the advantage of a simpler network OAM function. On the negative side, the additional flexibility in traffic segregation and traffic management provided by an ITU standard that operates with ATM is lost, but partly substituted by TAG or Label Switching protocols. This implies the need for the resulting physical facilities to be over-dimensioned in comparison to the complete architecture solution. In the 'simple architecture' solution the optical physical layer connects directly to the IP switching function.381 All traffic management must be provided by this reduced functionality resulting in the need for the facilities to be considerably over-dimensioned. Such an approach may nevertheless be attractive due to economies of scale in high capacity optical transmission systems and the corresponding savings in network operational and management cost, and/or performance advantages.382 The second and third solutions are preferred by pure IP WAIN operators, and are more popular in the USA, while the last solution is currently considered as the architecture for the Next Generation Internet and represents the newest solutions for Ethernet technologies (Fast and Gigabit Ethernet). For the ISP market these options have significant implications. Information from market and media reports suggests that most European backbone operators were using MPLS in 2001.383 While some are apparently intending to ultimately use MPLS to replace ATM, our understanding is that none have yet done so. Moreover many of those who are using MPLS are using it primarily to provide IP virtual private networks (IPVPNs), and/or for its flexibility in traffic engineering in the core of their networks.384,385 380 Note, that AAL and ATM lies in layer 2 of the OSI model such that virtual paths are configured by the management system but cannot be switched. 381 Routing and switching functionality in an Internet World are discussed in Chapter 3. 382 Each additional layer requires a corresponding management and OAM function for both line-side management and coordination with the layer immediately above and below, such that reducing the number of layers implies cost savings. However a reduced functionality and topology also requires extra (stand by) capacity mainly in the physical layer in the form of 1:1 or N:M with M<N. To improve the availability mainly in case of failures, Melian et. al (2002) propose a duplication of this layer and party traffic distribution. 383 See the figure in annex B-2 from Infonetics Research. 384 UUNet has stated that it uses MPLS for traffic engineering purposes, and uses IPsec to the end points of VPNs (see Rubenstein, Feb. 2001, www.totaltele.com) Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 209 In 2001 MPLS was still considered to be under development. However, as early as year 2000 some operators started implementing it. While it is ultimately envisaged as an ATM replacement technology, MPLS is also evolutionary, i.e. it uses existing layer-3 routing protocols, and can use all layer-2 protocols like ATM, frame relay, point-to-point protocol (PPP) and Ethernet, as well as existing layer-2 kit. New services can thus be provided using MPLS while maintaining IP over ATM as the principle network architecture. Therefore, ISPs can use features offered by MPLS and maintain their complete architecture. They may also decide some time in the near to medium term to shift to a more reduced architecture by using MPLS in place of ATM in layer-2. 385 It has been claimed that MPLS is more prevalent in Europe because its VPN capabilities have proved especially attractive due to the high price of dedicated leased lines in most European countries (Rubenstein, Feb. 2001, www.totaltele.com). 210 B-2 Final Report Technologies deployed by ISPs in Europe Figure B-8 shows the different types of architectures used by larger ISPs in Europe in 2000 and 2001. It should be noted that beneath the figures lie quite small sample numbers and so we would expect there to be quite high margins for error. Figure B-8: Technologies for QoS and backbone technologies used by ISPs in Europe European Technologies for QoS 71% ATM 71% 53% QoS Technologies MPLS IPv6 35% • ATM dominant • MPLS growing fast 35% 6% 29% DiffServ 24% Cisco Tag Switching 24% 29% 2002 12% RSVP 2001 12% 0% 15% 30% 45% Percent of Respondents 60% 75% European Backbone Technologies 82% 82% SDH 76% 71% Backbone Technologies WDM or DWDM 76% Gigabit routing • Similar to US Tier 1 and Tier 2 backbones • IP, ATM prevalent • MPLS coming fast • Suggests multiservice network 65% 71% 76% ATM 65% MPLS 41% Packet over SDH 41% 41% Ethernet 41% 35% 12% 12% Terabit routing 0% 2002 2001 15% 30% 45% 60% Percent of Respondents 75% 90% Source: Infonetics Research, The Service Provider Opportunity, Europe 2001 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 211 B-3 Interoperability of circuit-switched and packet-switched networks in "Next Generation Networks” One of the problems preventing VoIP and other real-time services from being provided on a much wider scale than is presently the case is that VoIP providers need to connect with end-users through interconnecting with traditional PSTN operators. This is necessary in order for VoIP providers to obtain access the PSTN's addressing system (i.e. telephone numbers), and to use the PSTN's SS7 signalling system. Present VoIP providers are essentially providing long-distance / international bypass of the PSTN.386 Broadly speaking, the term "Next Generation Network" (NGN) denotes approaches for future network architectures using a platform for a packet-based transmission of voice, data and video.387 There is, however, a widespread belief that the traditional telephone network (analogue PSTN, ISDN) will still be widely used for many years to come, in particular with respect to the access network. Thus, interoperability between the telephone network and the NGN will continue to be a crucial issue. This section presents the main characteristics of two alternative approaches to NGNs in a world where the PSTN/ISDN network still exists. We outlined the basic idea of Voice over IP (VoIP) in section 2.1, although further explanation can be found in section 8.2.1. In principle a VoIP call involves the following steps:388 • Voice is digitised; • Digitised voice is placed into packets; • Packets are compressed (by hardware and or software); • E.164 telephony numbers are mapped onto IP addresses; • IP-voice packets are transported via router systems to the terminal address, and • IP voice packets are converted into ordinary voice signals which the human ear can understand. In the traditional voice telephony network there is a very close relationship between the transportation of the actual voice and the signalling protocols that are needed for call 386 Indeed, the service seems to be most popular for citizens of Asian countries who call the United States. One reason for this may be that international calls over the PSTN remain relatively expensive in those countries. 387 A comprehensive treatment of technical issues can be found in Eurescom (2001). 388 We focus here on the PC to Phone or Phone to PC and Phone to Phone alternative, i.e. VoIP where both the PSTN and an IP network (the Internet) is involved. 212 Final Report set-up, call monitoring and to disconnect a call.389 When voice is delivered over IP it is also necessary to perform signalling and call control functions. To enable real-time multi-media communications across IP networks, two protocol standards were in use as at the end of 2001: • H.323, and • Session Initiation Protocol (SIP, RFC 2543). About H.323 The ITU recommendation H.323 ”Packet based Multimedia communications systems” contains a set of standards required for establishing, monitoring and terminating end-toend connections for multimedia services such as VoIP, video communication over IP and collaborative work for multimedia services.390 H.323 not only specifies the signalling protocol but also a characteristic network architecture. As can be seen from Figure B-9, the main components shaping an "H.323zone” are: • H.323 compatible terminal devices; • Gateways; • Multipoint Control Unit(s) (MCUs), and • Gatekeeper(s). The primary objective of H.323 is to enable the exchange of media streams between these components. Typically, an H.323 terminal is an end-user communications device that enables real-time communications with other H.323 endpoints. A gateway provides the interconnection between a H.323 network and other types of networks such as the PSTN.391 An MCU is an H.323 endpoint that manages the establishment and the tearing down of multi-point connections (e.g. conferences).392 The gatekeeper is responsible for controlling his H.323-zone, including the authorisation of network access from the endpoints of the H.323 zone. Moreover, the gatekeeper supports the 389 In the PSTN e.g. the Signalling System No. 7 (SS7) is a crucial technical building block, see e.g. Denton (1999). 390 H.323 has the official title "Packet-based Multimedia Communications Systems”. 391 One side of the gateway mirrors the requirements of H.323, i.e. it provides H.323 signalling and conveys packet media. The other side fulfils the requirements of the circuit-switched network. Thus, from the perspective of the H.323 side a gateway has the characteristics of a H.323 terminal. From the perspective of the PSTN it has the characteristics of a PSTN (or ISDN) network node. 392 The MCU functionality can be contained in a separate device, although it can also be part of a gateway, a gatekeeper or a H.323 terminal. The task of an MCU is to establish the media that may be shared between entities by assigning a capability set to the participants of a multi-part session. The MCU may also change the capability set if other endpoints join or leave the session. 213 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks bandwidth management of connections with particular QoS requirements. In addition it performs IP addressing tasks. Figure B-9: H.323 network architecture H.323term inal H.323term inal Network without guarante ed Q oS levels G atekeeper MC U H.323 zone G ateway PS TN AT M network H.324 H.321 ISDN H.320 Source: Badach (2000). H.323 is not a single standard, rather it is a complex suite of standards each concerned with different tasks.393 An overview of the main elements of the protocol-architecture enabling multi-service networking with IP are shown in Figure B-10. With respect to the exchange of the actual payload, Figure B-10 shows that H.323 works with on RTP (RTCP) operating over UDP which operates over IP, i.e. TCP is not used. Additionally, the protocols H.225 and H.245 are used for control of the terminal equipment and applications.394 H.225 is a two-part protocol. One part is responsible for setting up and tearing down connections between H.323 end-points (call signalling); the other part of H.225 is utilized by the gatekeeper for the management of endpoints in his zone and is usually called RAS (Registration, Admission, and Status) Signalling.395 The main task of the H.245 control signalling is the management of the actual packet streams (media streams) between two or more participants of an H.323 session. To this end H.245 opens one or more logical channels with specific properties (such as bit rate) between H.323 endpoints, which are utilised for the transfer of the media streams. 393 See Schmidt (2000) for a discussion of ITU Internet telephony related standards. 394 In the following we draw heavily from Smith and Collins (2002). 395 RAS signalling is used for registration of an endpoint with a gatekeeper and it is utilised by the gatekeeper to allow or to deny access to the endpoint. 214 Final Report Figure B-10: H.323 protocol layers Audio Video G.711 H.261 G.722 H.263 Terminal Control and Management RTCP Data Applications H.225.0 H.225.0 H.245 G.723.1 RAS Call Signalling Control G.728 Channel Channel Channel HTTP T.120 G.729.A RTP X.224 Class 0 UDP TCP Network Layer (IP) Link Layer (IEEE 802.3) Physical Layer (IEEE 802.3) Source: Schmidt (2000) About Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) 396 SIP was developed by the IETF in 1999.397 It is a protocol for establishing, routing, modifying and terminating communications sessions over IP networks. It is based on elements from HTTP, which is used for Web browsing, and the Simple Mail Transport Protocol (SMTP), which is used for e-mail on the Internet. Even though SIP is used for peer-to-peer communications,398 it uses a client-server transaction model in which a SIP client generates a SIP request which is responded to by a SIP server. SIP mainly performs those functions in IP-based networks which in traditional networks are performed by signalling protocols. To get a clearer picture of what SIP is, it is useful to outline what SIP is not. SIP is not: • A protocol which controls network elements or terminal devices; • A resource reservation protocol or prioritisation protocol; 396 This sections draws on Sinnreich and Johnston (2001). 397 To some extent it is fair to say that H.323 is oriented to the old circuit-switched telephony world, see Denton (1999) whereas SIP was developed with the Internet in mind. Both SIP and H.323 use the same mechanism for transport of mediastreams, namely RTP. However, their addressing schemes are different. For more detail on SIP and H.323 see also SS8 Networks (2001). 398 Peer-to-peer means that both parties involved in a SIP based communication are considered equals. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 215 • A transfer protocol designed to carry large amounts of data;399 • Designed to manage interactive sessions once the sessions are set up: • Aiming at mapping all known telephony features from circuit-switched networks into the SIP world.400 Compared to H.323, SIP is considered simpler.401 SIP can use both the connectionless UDP and TCP as transport protocol in layer 4. The main building blocks of a SIP-enabled IP communications network are: • SIP endpoints; • SIP server, and • Location server. Broadly speaking, a SIP endpoint is a computer that understands the SIP protocol. SIP endpoints in particular are fully qualified Internet hosts. Two types of SIP-endpoints can be distinguished: • User devices such as (SIP-)phones and PCs,402 and • Gateways to other networks, e.g. connecting to the PSTN, H.323 networks, or to softswitch-based networks using MGCP (RFC 2805) or Megaco (H.248, RFC 3015) protocols. A SIP server is a computer that performs special functions at the request of SIP endpoints. There is no necessity that a SIP server is on the same network as the SIP endpoints that are associated to it, rather, the only requirement is that the server can be reached via an IP network.403 A Location Server is a database containing information 399 Rather, it is designed to carry only those comparably small amounts of data required to set up interactive communications. 400 Although it is worth to be noted that SIP supports PSTN Intelligent Network services and mobile telephony features, see Sinnreich and Johnston (2001, p. 13). 401 To quote Sinnreich and Johnston: "SIP...makes no specification on media types, descriptions, services etc. This is in comparison to a VoIP umbrella protocol such as H.323, which specifies all aspects of signalling, media, features, services, and session control, similar to the other ISDN family of protocols from which it is derived. See Sinnreich and Johnston (2001, pp. 56-57). 402 The end devices in a SIP network are also called user agents. They originate SIP requests to set up media sessions and they send and receive media. A characteristic is that every user agent contains both a User Agent Client and a User Agent Server. The User Agent Client is the part of the user agent initiating requests and a User Agent Server is the part generating responses to requests. During a session usually both parts are used. See Sinnreich and Johnston (2001, p. 57). 403 To be more precise there are different types of SIP servers with specific tasks: SIP proxy servers receive SIP requests from an endpoint or another proxy server and forward them to another location. Redirect servers receive requests from endpoints or proxy servers and are responding by indicating where the request should be retried. Registrar servers receive SIP registration requests and are updating information received from endpoints into location servers. 216 Final Report about users (like URLs), IP addresses and routing information about a SIP enabled network. SIP-addressing rests on a similar scheme to e-mail addressing.404 SIP-addresses identify users rather than the devices they are using, i.e. there is no differentiation between voice and data, telephone or computer. SIP supports queries on DNS servers, ENUM queries405 and queries at location servers. Work to provide interworking of SIP with other protocols from ITU-T which had begun or was complete as at the end of 2001, can be seen in Table B-4. Table B-4: SIP interworking with ITU-T protocols ENUM: E.164 to IP address mapping using DNS SIP-H323 interworking Accessing IN services from SIP networks SIP-IN Applications (INAP) Interworking SIP and QSIG for circuit-switched PBX interworking by transport of QSIG signalling SIP for telephony - for transport of telephony signalling across IP Telecommunications and Internet Harmonisation (TIPHON) Source: Sinnreich and Johnston (2001, Table 2.10) H.323/SIP Interworking We have seen that H.323 and SIP rest on very different principles and that they are backed by different organisations (ITU, IETF). We recognise, however, that there are developments in the manufacturing/software industry which might lead to a situation where the technical differences between the approaches disappear. A company called SS8 Networks has patented what it refers to as a "Signaling Switch” which is both a SIP proxy server and a H.323 Gatekeeper and which in addition provides H.323/SIP interworking. Moreover, this solution is claimed to support ENUM.406 404 The SIP address of one of the authors of this study could be: sip:[email protected]. It is, however, possible, to also use a telephone number in the user part, like sip:[email protected]; user=phone. 405 See next section. 406 See SS8 (2001a) and SS8 (2001b). Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks B-4 217 ENUM 407 The convergence of traditional telecommunications networks (PSTN/ISDN, mobile networks like GSM/UMTS, and broadband cable) and public data networks like the Internet, require that services and applications become independent of the type of telecommunications networks, i.e. the lower layers in the OSI-model on which they are based. In order to access a subscriber on an IP address-based network, some sort of global addressing scheme across PSTN and IP address-based networks needs to be implemented. ENUM provides such a scheme. ENUM is first and foremost a protocol defining a DNS-based architecture aiming at using an ordinary E.164 telephone number408 to identify IP-based addresses.409 ENUM was standardised by the IETF in September 2000. ENUM aims at giving an Internet-based user A the opportunity to select particular applications which user A wants to make available for communicating with other persons B when B only knows the telephone number of A, or B has access only to a telephone keypad. Applications of ENUM being discussed include: Voice over IP; the Voice Protocol for Internet Mail;410 Internet Fax; Unified Messaging; Instant Messaging; e-mail, and (personal) web pages. The basic principle of ENUM is to convert a telephone number into a routing address and to retrieve information about the specific applications associated with the telephone number. Several steps are performed in doing this: 1. The phone number is translated into an E.164 number by adding the city/area and country code; 2. All characters are removed except for the digits; 3. The order of the digits is reversed; 4. Dots are placed between each digit, and 5. The domain "e164.arpa" is appended to the end. This procedure is clarified by an example: 407 In this section we refer to Frequently Asked Questions on www.enum.org. 408 E.164 is the name of the international telephone numbering plan administered by the ITU specifying the format, structure, and administrative hierarchy of telephone numbers. The ITU issues country codes to sovereign nations, and national telecommunications organisations administer the telephone numbers within each country. A full E.164 number consists of a country code, an area or city code, and a phone number. 409 These IP-based addresses might be the mail address, a URL or an IP phone address. 410 The latter focuses on enabling voice mail systems to exchange messages over IP networks. 218 Final Report • Step1: The national telephone number of one of the authors of this study 022249225-43 is translated into +49-2224-9225-43, where the "49" represents the country code of Germany; • Step2: +49-2224-9225-43 is changed into 492224922543; • Step3: 492224922543 is changed into 345229422294; • Step4: 345229422294 is changed into 3.4.5.2.2.9.4.2.2.2.9.4, and • Step 5: 3.4.5.2.2.9.4.2.2.2.9.4 is changed into 3.4.5.2.2.9.4.2.2.2.9.4e164.arpa ENUM then issues a DNS query on this domain. Once the authoritative name server is found, ENUM replies with information about what applications are associated with this specific telephone number. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks B-5 219 Adoption of new Internet architectures The trend in Internet architectures appears to involve convergence between data and optical layers, which is most apparent in the use of IP based protocols in the network layer as well as data layer. Several factors appear to be driving this process, with arguably the most important being: • The growth in demand for service provided over the Internet, which among other things places a premium on network architectures and protocols that are scalable; • Competition to provide transit services, and • Competition among Internet hardware suppliers. It is apparent that the protocols that operate the Internet and the hardware over which they operate, are subject to rapid technological change. In this respect Internet evolution is highly unpredictable, and given the different competitive positions and strategies of the ISPs, backbone providers, equipment manufacturers, and possibly other entities with market power in adjacent markets which may be able to lever that power onto the Internet,411 it seems likely that several (perhaps partially) substitutable architectures will continue to exist. From the perspective of end-user ISPs and ISP transit providers, their willingness to adopt new architectures will include a trade-off between: • The vintage of their existing technology; • The degree to which the new technology has been sorted and debugged; • The belief about whether the new technology will itself be replaced shortly by something which is significantly better; • Switching costs involved, and • Business differences (e.g. strategies, customer base, etc). It is clear that uncertainty and asymmetric and imperfect information will mean that ISPs will have quite different beliefs about bullets two and three, and will also have different interests. Thus, when technology is rapidly evolving, and there are many near substitutes or variations available, they will not all choose the same architecture. 411 Such as through sponsoring a new standard. Perhaps Microsoft is an example of a company that could lever market power into the Internet. 181 -20 Difference to 2000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 29 0 6 16 31 1 0 33 -2 -1 -1 4 0 -6 -3 5 Final Report TOTAL 1 1 MAE West 220 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 MAE Los Angeles / LAP MAE East Annex to Chapter 6 new 0 0 0 0 new 0 1 new new -1 0 0 new new 2 0 new 0 1 2 1 new new -4 2 0 -2 0 0 new 1 0 0 0 3 MAE East Vienna MAE Dallas C 5 5 5 6 4 8 5 6 1 0 8 5 4 4 3 7 4 2 5 5 6 6 5 11 2 7 0 5 5 6 7 4 6 6 5 8 CIX Palo Alto Important Internet traffic exchange points and players Aleron AT&T Broadwing Cable & Wireless CAIS Internet Gogent Communications e.spire Communications Electric Lightwave Enetricity Online Enron Broadband Services Epoch Internet Excite @ Home Fiber Network Solutions Genuity ICCX ICG Communications IDT Infonet Services Level 3 Communication Lightning Internet Services Multa Communications Netrail One Call Communications OptiGate Networks PSINet Qwest Communications SAVVIS Communications ServInt Internet Services Sprint Communications Teleglobe Telia Internet Verio Williams Communications Group Winstar Communications WorldCom XO Communications CIX Herndon C-1 Ameritech Chicago NAP The most important public Internet exchange points in North-America 2001 Difference to 2000 Table C-1: US international NAPs 2001 - TOTAL US-IBPs 2001 PacBell Los Angeles NAP PacBell San Francisco NAP PAIX Palo Alto PAIX-VA 1 Seattle Internet Exchange 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Oregon IX 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TOTAL 2 0 21 14 2 2 20 3 1 Difference to 2000 2 -2 -2 -8 1 1 -4 new new Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 1 Sprint New York San Diego NAP NAP Table C-1: Aleron AT&T Broadwing Cable & Wireless CAIS Internet Gogent Communications e.spire Communications Electric Lightwave Enetricity Online Enron Broadband Services Epoch Internet Excite @ Home Fiber Network Solutions Genuity ICCX ICG Communications IDT Infonet Services Level 3 Communication Lightning Internet Services Multa Communications Netrail One Call Communications OptiGate Networks PSINet Qwest Communications SAVVIS Communications ServInt Internet Services Sprint Communications Teleglobe Telia Internet Verio Williams Communications Group Winstar Communications WorldCom XO Communications NY II X (New York International IX) 221 The most important public Internet exchange points in North-America 2001: cont'd Source: Boardwatch 2001; Peering of US-IBPs at international important US peering points US-IBPs 2001 1 1 1 201 CIX Palo Alto MAE Dallas MAE Los Angeles / LAP 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 31 MAE East Vienna 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 MAE East 12 1 1 1 1 31 7 3 Final Report 7 6 5 0 5 6 4 5 5 9 5 5 6 4 7 6 7 4 5 4 7 5 4 4 5 6 1 6 5 3 0 7 5 5 6 5 5 3 6 6 2 CIX Herndon 222 TOTAL Ameritech Chicago NAP The most important public Internet exchange points in North-America 2000 Abovenet AGIS AT&T BCE Nexxia Broadwing Cable & Wireless CAIS Internet Concentric Electric Lightwave Epoch Internet e.spire Excite @ Home Exodus Fibre Network Solutions Global Center Globix GST GTE ICG Communications IDT Intermedia Level 3 Communication Lightning Internet Services Multa Commmuncations NetRail Onyx Networks OrcoNet PSInet Qwest RMI.NET SAVVIS Communications* ServINT Internet Services Splitrock Sprint Communications Teleglobe Uunet Verio Vnet Williams Communications Winstar Communications ZipLink US international NAPs 2000 - TOTAL Table C-2: US-IBPs 2000 PacBell Los Angeles NAP 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 PAIX Palo Alto PAIX-VA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Seattle Internet Sprint New Exchange York NAP 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 38 PacBell San Francisco NAP 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 23 22 1 1 1 24 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks TOTAL NY II X (New York International IX) Table C-2: Abovenet AGIS AT&T BCE Nexxia Broadwing Cable & Wireless CAIS Internet Concentric Electric Lightwave Epoch Internet e.spire Excite @ Home Exodus Fibre Network Solutions Global Center Globix GST GTE ICG Communications IDT Intermedia Level 3 Communication Lightning Internet Services Multa Commmuncations NetRail Onyx Networks OrcoNet PSInet Qwest RMI.NET SAVVIS Communications* ServINT Internet Services Splitrock Sprint Communications Teleglobe Uunet Verio Vnet Williams Communications Winstar Communications ZipLink MAE West The most important public Internet exchange points in North-America 2000: cont'd Source: Boardwatch 2000; Peering of US-IBPs at international important US peering points US-IBPs 2000 223 Operator URL non-profit # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* n 139 NA Ipv6 NA Ameritech Chicago NAP Chicago (IIIinois) n 123 NA traffic details available y 66 NA NA y 66 NA NA n 64 NA NA n/y 60 n 59 n 59 SBC/Ameritech http://nap.aads.net/main.html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points www.cix.org Commercial Internet eXchange Association CIX Palo Alto Palo Alto (California) Commercial Internet http://www.cix.org/index.htm eXchange Association moved to PAIX Palo Alto MAE East Washington D.C. WorldCom www.mae.net/#east.html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points MAE West www.mae.net/#west.html San José (California) WorldCom/ NASA Ames Los Angeles Pacific Bell SBC http://www.pacbell.com/Products PacBell Los Angeles NAP (California) _Services/Business/ProdInfo_1/1, 1973,146-1-6,00.html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points Pacific Bell SBC PacBell San Francisco NAP San Francisco http://www.pacbell.com/Products (California) _Services/Business/ProdInfo_1/1, 1973,146-1-6,00.html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points CIX Herndon Herndon (Virginia) Remarks see page 230 NA (restricted NA (restricted access) access) NA NA NA NA Final Report Palo Alto (California) PAIX.net Inc. (Above www.paix.net Net Metromedia Fiber N.)** Extended list of Internet Exchange Points in the USA and Canada (ordered along number of ISPs connected) PAIX Palo Alto 224 Location (town, state) Table C-3: Name of IXP MAE East Vienna Location (town, state) Vienna (Virginia) Operator WorldCom URL non-profit # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* NY II X (New York International New York (New York)Telehouse IX) http://www.nyiix.net/ international and local IXP service n 42 (daily traffic details available) Seattle Internet Exchange Seattle (Washington) ISI www.altopia.com/six y 42 PAIX-VA 1 Vienna (Virginia) PAIX.net Inc. (Above www.paix.net Net Metromedia Fiber N.) n 30 (daily traffic (daily traffic details details available) available) NA NA MAE Dallas Dallas (Texas) WorldCom http://www.mae.net/#Central n 19 NA (restricted access) NA TORIX Toronto (Ontario), Canada Toronto Internet Exchange Inc. www.torix.net y 11 NA NA CANIX Toronto (Ontario), Canada MAE Los Angeles / LAP Los Angeles (California) WorldCom LAP: USC/ISI www.mfsdata net.com.MAE http://www.isi.edu/div7/lap/ n/y NA MAE LA is not accepting new customers NA NA Sprint New York NAP Pennsauken (New Jersey) Sprint http://www.sprintbiz.com/index. html one of the original National Science Foundation exchange points NA NA NA NA NA no public information/no url available Remarks see page 230 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks n 225 Extended list of Internet Exchange Points in the USA and Canada: cont'd 57 NA (restricted NA (restricted (closing, access) access ISPs move to MAE East) www.mae.net/#east.html Table C-3: Name of IXP Seattle (Washington) founded by WolfeNet and IXA (now SAVVIS) financed by donors URL http://www.altopia.com/six/ compare to ISI SIX !! non-profit y # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange 42 (daily traffic details available) Connections to the exchange (capacity)* NA Seattle (Washington) InterNAP www.internap.com n 35 NA NA PAIX Vienna (Tysons’s Corner) Vienna (Virginia) PAIX.net http://www.paix.net/internet_exch ange/index.htm n 28 NA NA ? (New Jersey) ? www.avnet.org/ y 25 NA NA IndyX (Indianapolis Data Exchange) Indianapolis (Indiana) One Call Communications http://www.indyx.net/ n 23 NA NA HIX (Hawai`i Internet Exchange) Hawai`i ? University of Hawai`i Information Technology Services (UH-ITS) http://www.lava.net/hix/ y 21 NA NA SD-NAP (San Diego Network Access Point) San Diego (California) University of California's San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC) http://www.caida.org/projects/sdn ap/content/ y 21 NA NA PAIX New York New York (New York) PAIX.net http://www.paix.net/internet_exch ange/index.htm n 20 NA NA LAIIX Los Angeles International Internet eXchange Los Angeles (California) Telehouse http://www.laiix.net/ interconnected with LAP (Los Angeles Access Point)/MAE-LA. n 18 NA NA Equinix Exchange Ashburn, San Jose, Dallas Equinix Inc. https://www.equinixmatrix.com/ex change_pub/ n Ashburn: 8 San Jose: 5 Dallas: 1 NA NA Nova Scotia GigaPOP Halifax, Canada Dalhousie University http://Snoopy.UCIS.Dal.Ca/Com mServ/GigaPOP/ y 13 (daily traffic details available) (daily traffic details available) Utah REP ? (Utah) several consultancies http://utah.rep.net/ y 13 (daily traffic details available) (daily traffic details available) Final Report IPeXchange Extended list of Internet Exchange Points in the USA and Canada: cont'd InterNAP Remarks see page 230 226 SIX (Seattle Internet Exchange) Operator Location (town, state) Table C-3: Name of IXP Operator Location (town, state) URL non-profit # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* Phonoscope http://www.magie-houston.net/ n 11 NA NA TorIX (Toronto IX) Toronto, Canada Toronto Internet Exchange Inc. http://www.torontointernetxchang e.net/ n 11 NA NA PAIX Seattle Seattle (Washinton) PAIX.net http://www.paix.net/internet_exch ange/index.htm n 10 NA NA Baltimore NAP Baltimore (Maryland) ? http://www.baltimore-nap.net/ ? 9 (daily traffic details available) NA BCIX (British Columbia IX) Vancouver, Canada BC NET http://www.bcix.net/BCIX.htm n 9 NA NA Neutral NAP McLean, Virginia Pimmit Run Research, Inc. http://www.neutralnap.net/ y 9 NA NA PAIX Dallas Dallas (Texas) PAIX.net http://www.paix.net/internet_exch ange/index.htm n 9 NA NA QIX (Quebec IX) Quebec, Canada RISQ Inc. (Réseau d’informations Scientifiques de Quebec) http://www.risq.net/qix y 9 NA NA Austin MAE (Austin Metro Access Point) Austin (Texas) NA http://www.fc.net:80/map/austin/ y? 8 NA NA OIX (Oregon Exchange) Eugene (Oregon) University of Oregon http://antc.uoregon.edu/OREGON -EXCHANGE/ y 8 NA NA Boston MXP Boston (Massachusetts) Allegiance Telecom http://www.bostonmxp.com/index. phtml y 7 NA NA EIX (Edmonton IX) Edmonton, Canada Edmonton Internet Exchange Society http://www.eix.net/ y 7 (daily traffic details available) NA PAIX Atlanta Atlanta (Georgia) PAIX.net http://www.paix.net/internet_exch ange/index.htm n 7 NA NA Compaq Houston NAP Houston (Texas) Compaq http://www.compaq-nap.net/ n 5 NA NA Remarks see page 230 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Houston (Texas) 227 Extended list of Internet Exchange Points in the USA and Canada: cont'd The Houston "MAGIE" (Metropolitan Area Gigabit Internet Exchange ) Table C-3: Name of IXP URL non-profit # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* Colorado Internet Cooperative Association http://www.themax.net/ y 5 (daily traffic details available) NA PITX (The Pittsburgh Internet Exchange) Pittsburgh (?) pair Networks, Inc http://www.pitx.net/ n 4 NA NA San Antonio MAP (Metro Access Point) San Antonio (Texas) TexasNet http://www.fc.net/map/samap/ n 4 NA NA COX Oregon (?) Bend Cable, Bend Net, and Empire Net (member ISPs) http://www.centraloregon.net/ y 3 NA NA HMAP Houston (Texas) Insync Internet Services www.fc.net:80/map / ? 2 (?) NA NA NSF http://www.magpi.org/ y 2 Universities (daily traffic details available) (daily traffic details available) Los Angeles Telehouse (California), New York (New York) http://www.6iix.net/ opened 2000/2001 n NA NA NA AIX = MAE West NASA Ames Research Center http://aix.arc.nasa.gov/ ? ? ? ? Atlanta-NAP (Atlanta Exchange Point) Atlanta (Georgia) ? ? ? ? ? ? BC Gigapop ? (British Columbia), Canada BC NET http://www.net.ubc.ca/BCGIGAPOP/ NA research project NA NA NA CMH-IX (Columbus Internet eXchange) Columbus (?) ? http://www.cmh-ix.net/ ? NA NA NA Detroit MXP Detroit (Michigan) Allegiance Telecom (?) www.mai.net ? DFWMAP (Dallas Fort Worth) Dallas (Texas) ? www.fc.net:80/map / EWIX (Eastern Washington Internet Exchange) Spokane (Washington) ? www.dsource.com MAGPI Mid-Atlantic Gigapop in Philadelphia Philadelphia for Internet2 6IIX International Internet eXchange points for IPv6 6IIX-LA 6IIX-NY Remarks see page 230 ? ? ? ? None yet NA NA ? NA NA Final Report Denver (Colorado) Extended list of Internet Exchange Points in the USA and Canada: cont'd MAX (Mountain Area Exchange) 228 Operator Location (town, state) Table C-3: Name of IXP Operator Location (town, state) Montreal, Canada Nashville CityNet Nashville (Tennessee) ? NIX (Northwest Internet ? (Washington) eXchange) NMNAP (New Mexico NAP) ? (New Mexico) # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? - ? - NA ? shutdown/nn ot accepting new customers NA NA NA ? ? NA NA ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? y ? NA NA ? ? NA http://megasun.BCH.UMontreal.C A/~burkep/sps.html restricted access nap.nashville.net (wrong url) ? www.structured.net/nix/ (wrong url) ? www.nmnap.net (wrong url) ? PHLIX (Philadelphia Internet Philadelphia www.phlix.net Exchange) (Pennsylvania) (wrong url) SNNAP (Seattle Network-to- Seattle (Washington)? weber.u.washington.edu Network Access Point) (wrong url) Star Tap NAP Chicago (Michigan) Ameritech http://www.startap.net/CONNECT University of Illinois at / Star Tap project founded by NSF Chicago Remarks see page 230 Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks MIX (Montreal IX) MAE New York in planning ? non-profit 229 Extended list of Internet Exchange Points in the USA and Canada: cont'd MAE-Chicago MAE-Houston ? ? Nap.Net was acquired http://www.napnet.net/ by GTE Internetworking which has now become GENUiTY New York (New York)? http://www.mfsdatanet.com/MAE (wrong url) Chicago (Illinois) WorldCom http://mfs.datanet.com/MAE Houston (Texas) WorldCom http://mae.houston.tx.us FibreNAP FloridaMIX GENUiTY ? (Ohio) URL Table C-3: Name of IXP non-profit # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* ? www.stlouix.net (wrong url) ? ? ? ? TTI (The Tucson Interconnect) Tucson (Arizona) ? www.tti.aces.net (wrong url) ? ? ? ? TTN (The Tucson NAP) Tucson (Arizona) ? www.ttn.rtd.net (wrong url) ? ? ? ? VIX (Vermont IX) ? (Vermont) ? www.hill.com/trc/vix/index.html (wrong url) ? ? ? ? Sources: St. Louis (Missouri) URL TeleGeography 2000, OECD 1998, Boardwatch 2000, Colt 2001, EP.NET,LLC, homepages of exchange points ** = PAIX.net was founded as Digital Equipment Corporation's Palo Alto Internet Exchange. PAIX is a wholly owned subsidiary of Metromedia Fiber. Another subsidiary is AboveNet Communications NA = not available from homepage, personal enquiry necessary ? = not checked yet / further enquiry necessary y = not-for-profit public internet exchange n = commercial public exchange * = sum of all connected ISPs‘ capacities grey marked IXPs: internationally important US NAPs (main US and Canadian IX according to Boardwatch 2000 and Telegeography 2000, 2001) Final Report Remarks: MAE (Metropolitan Access Exchange) is a trademark of WorldCom for their IXPs IXP = general expression for Internet exchange point CIX = commercial Internet exchange (but mostly not-for-profit) NAP = Network/Neutral Access Point GIX = Gigabit Internet Exchange IBX = Internet Business Exchange is a trademark of Equinix. Extended list of Internet Exchange Points in the USA and Canada: cont'd STLOUIX Operator Location (town, state) 230 Table C-3: Name of IXP legal Operator Location URL non-profit # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange NA Netherlands, Amsterdam AMS-IX Association www.ams-ix.net/ 4 locations y 125 3 Gbit/s (monthly average) LINX UK, London London Internet Exchange Limited www.linx.net 3 locations y 118 5.5 Gbit/s majority of LINX members: 100Mbit/s capacity, top 5+ members: gigabit capacity. GNI France, Grenoble GNI – Grenoble Network Initiative http://www.gni.fr/index_accueil.htm only French y 84 NA NA M9-IX Russia, Moscow Russian Institute for Public Networks (RIPN) www.ripn.net/ix y 84 NA NA DE-CIX Germany, Frankfurt/Main www.eco.de Eco Forum e.V. (not-forprofit industry association of 2 locations in Frankfurt/M. ISPs) y 75 2,5 Gbit/s NA VIX Austria, Vienna Vienna University http://www.vix.at/ 2 locations y 72 (daily traffic details NA available) MIX Milan Italy, Milan MIX S.r.L. http://www.mix-it.net/i y 66 NA ? Max Speed: 1000.0 Mbits/s (daily traffic details available) SFINX France, Paris Renater http://www.sfinx.tm.fr/ y 59 NA BNIX Belgium, Brussels Belnet - Belgian National Research Network www.belnet.be/bnix 3 locations y 45 (daily traffic details NA available) INXS Germany, Munic Cable & Wireless ECRC GmbH http://www.inxs.de n 43 NA NA www.nic.hu/bix only Hungarian Ipv6 BIX Hungary, Budapest NA NA Ipv6 NA 42 NA NA Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks AMS-IX Most important IXPs in Europe (ordered according to number of ISPs connected) [as of May 2001] Connections to the exchange (capacity)* Table C-4: Name of NAP 231 Location legal Operator URL # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* Norway, Oslo Centre for Information Technology Services (USIT), University of Oslo http://www.uio.no/nix/info-englishshort.html 2 locations y 39 NA NA SE-DGIX (NETNOD) Sweden, Stockholm Netnod Internet Exchange i Sverige AB with SOF (The Swedish Operators Forum) http://www.netnod.se/index-eng.html several locations: 2 x Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö, planned: Stockholm, Sundsvall y 39 NA NA CIXP Switzerland, Geneva CERN IX Point wwwcs.cern.ch/public/services/cixp/ind ex.html 2 locations: CERN and Telehouse y 37 (daily traffic details available) NA NIX.CZ Czech Republic, Prague NIX.CZ Internet Service Provider Association http://www.nix.cz/ y 31 NA NA DIX Danmark, Lyngby UNI-C (partner of the Danish Ministry of Education) www.uni-c.dk/dix/ Lyngby is situated near Copenhagen y 29 NA NA LoNAP UK, London Lonap Limited http://www.lonap.net/ y 29 (daily traffic details LoNAP provides available) connections of up to 100Mbit L-GIX Latvia, Riga LATNET http://www.nic.lv/gix.html y 27 NA SIX-Slovak IX Slovakia, Bratislava Slovak University of Technology http://www.six.sk/ y 25 (daily traffic details NA available) NA PARIX France, Paris France Télécom http://www.parix.net/anglais/ n 25 NA NA MaNAP UK, Manchester MaNAP http://www.manap.net/ y 24 NA 10 Mbit/s, 100 Mbit/s, 1 Gbit/s possible TIX Switzerland, Zurich IX-Europe http://www.tix.ch/ n 21 NA NA Final Report NIX Most important IXPs in Europe: cont'd non-profit 232 Table C-4: Name of NAP legal Operator Location URL # of ISPs connected y 20 NA restricted access NA restricted access Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* Portugal, Lisbon Fundacao para a Computacao Cientifica National (FCCN) http://www.fccn.pt/PIX/ only Portugese CUIX Ukrain, Dnepropetrovsk Central Ukranian Internet Exchange http://cuix.dp.ua/ (only Cyrillic) NA 20 NA NA WIX Poland, Warsaw NA http://www.wix.net.pl/ only Polish NA 19 NA NA UA-IX Ukrain, NA Ukrainskaja set’ obmena internettrafikom http://www.ua-ix.net.ua/ (only Cyrillic) NA 19 NA 24 x 10/100 Mbps 2 x 1 Gbps NAP Nautilus Italy, Rome CASPUR (Consortium for the Applications of Supercomputation for University and Research, University of La Sapienza, Rome) http://www.nap.inroma.roma.it/ y 18 (daily traffic details NA available) BUHIX Romania, Bucharest NA www.buhix.ro only Romanian y 17 NA NA ESPANIX Spain, Madrid ESPANIX www.espanix.net only Spanish y 16 NA NA AIX Greece, Athens Greek Research and Technology Networks www.aix.gr y 14 (daily traffic details NA available) CATNIX Spain, Barcelona CATNIX (Founder: Catalan Foundation for Research) http://www.catnix.net/EN/ y 13 12.975 GB (average 2000) NA IXEurope Switzerland, Zurich IX Europe PLC http://www.telehouse.ch/ same as TIX?? n 13 NA NA FICIX Finland, Helsinki Finnish Commercial Internet www.ficix.fi Exchange Consortium y 11 NA Prime-time traffic over 250 Mbit/s (October 1998) (daily traffic details available) Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks PIX Most important IXPs in Europe: cont'd non-profit Table C-4: Name of NAP 233 URL non-profit # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* Novosibirsk State University http://www.ripn.net:8082/ix/nsk/network s only Cyrillic y 11 NA NA LIX Luxembourg RESTENA (Réseaux Téléinformatique de l'Education Nationale et de la Recherche) http://www.lix.lu/ y 10 NA NA SPB-IX Russia, St. Petersburg St.-Petersburg State University http://www.ripn.net:8082/ix/spb/network s only Cyrillic y 10 NA NA MANDA Germany, Darmstadt Hochschulrechenzentrum http://www.tu-darmstadt.de/manda/ der Technischen Universität Partners in this project are all important Darmstadt research organizations in Darmstadt including two research centres of DTAG. y 8 375 Mbit/s NA INEX Ireland, Dublin INEX http://www.inex.ie/ y 8 (daily traffic details NA available) SIX-Z Switzerland, Zurich TheNet - Internet Services AG http://www.six.ch/six-z.htm y 8 NA NA MPIX Russia, St. Petersburg NA http://www.rusnet.ru/mpix/ only Cyrillic NA 5 NA NA Samara-IX Russia, Samara Samara State University http://nic.samara.net/ix.html only Cyrillic y 5 NA NA World.IX UK, Edinburgh World.IX Ltd. http://www.scolocate.com/worldix.html n 5 NA NA CyIX Cyprus Cyprus Technology Foundation http://www.cytanet.com.cy/cyixen.html NA 3 NA NA Ural-IX Russia, Ekaterinburg and Perm Ural State University Perm State Technical University http://www.ripn.net:8082/ix/ural/network s/ only Cyrillic y 3 NA NA SIX-B Switzerland, Bern TheNet - Internet Services AG http://www.six.ch/six-b.htm y 2 NA NA Final Report Russia, Novosibirsk Most important IXPs in Europe: cont'd NSK-IX 234 legal Operator Location Table C-4: Name of NAP Table C-4: Name of NAP legal Operator http://ebone.com non-profit # of ISPs connected n private peering NA NA y NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 49 PoPs in European Cities, 17 European Hosting Facilities Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* offers „highest performance European peering and worldwide Tier 1 private peering“ (GTS) Lyonix IN2P3 France, Lyon Institut du Centre National de La Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) http://www.lyonix.net/lyonix.htm just opened (Dez. 2000) CIX Croatia, Zagreb AT & T? http://www.cix.hr/ only Croatian MAE-Paris France, Paris WorldCom www.mfst.com/mfsinternational/paris.html n NA NA NA DFN Germany, Berlin DFN-Verein http://www.dfn.de/ peering informations missing y NA 2.4 Gbit/s NA MAE-FFM Germany, Frankfurt/Main WorldCom www.mfst.com/mfsinternational/frankfurt.html n NA Na NA INX-HH Germany, Hamburg POP-Point of Presence GmbH http://www.inx-hh.de/ n NA NA NA M-CIX Germany, Munic Munic ISPs, NA http://www.m-cix.de/ email-address for questions available n NA NA NA MIX-Malta Malta independent operator NA y NA NA NA SCOTIX UK, Edinburgh SCOTIX Ltd. http://www.scotix.net/ y NA NA NA Xchange Point UK, London Xchangepoint Holding Company http://www.xchangepoint.net/ n NA NA NA founded 2000 by former LINX manager Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Germany, Ebone (GTS) Hosting Centres: Berlin, Dresden, Frankfurt/M., Hannover, Munic, Stuttgart URL Most important IXPs in Europe: cont'd ebone Location plans to establish IXPs in Paris, Milan, Brussels, Switzerland, Vienna, Germany, Madrid, Copenhagen, Amsterdam 235 legal Operator Location URL NDIX BV - NederlandsDuitse Internet Exchange http://www.ndix.nl DTAG Germany, wo?? Hamburg? Düsseldorf? Hannover? Cologne? Stuttgart? Munic? Berlin? Frankfurt/M.? DTAG ? ? Iceland ? ? Palermo Italy, Palermo ? ? TURNET Turkey ? i-Exchange UK, London MIEX y NA n Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* NA NA ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? www.i-exchange.co.uk/ dead link, no success with search engine research ? ? ? ? Netherlands, Maastricht Web 3 Hosting B.V. http://www.miex.nl/ only Dutch information only hosting no peering!!! - - - - SWISSIX Switzerland, Zurich - only a website for information about the TIX and the CIXP - - - - AMS DC2 Netherlands Amsterdam, ? CISP Switzerland, Geneva ? founded summer 2001 1.600 PoPs (same number as PSTN switches) Final Report Netherlands, Enschede # of ISPs connected Most important IXPs in Europe: cont'd NDIX NederlandsDuitse Internet Exchange non-profit 236 Table C-4: Name of NAP Table C-4: ebone France, Paris GIX France, Paris ? Vienna NAP Austria, Vienna ? ebone UK, London Ebone (GTS) Sources: Ebone (GTS) URL non-profit http://www.ebone.com/ big hosting centre TeleGeography 2000, OECD 1998, Boardwatch 2000, Colt 2001, EP.NET,LLC, homepages of exchange points Remarks: MAE (Metropolitan Access Exchange) is a trademark of WorldCom for their IXPs IXP = general expression for Internet exchange point CIX = commercial Internet exchange (but mostly not-for-profit) NAP = Network/Neutral Access Point NA = not available from homepage, personal enquiry necessary ? = not checked yet / further enquiry necessary y = not-for-profit public internet exchange n = commercial public exchange * = sum of all connected ISPs‘ capacities # of ISPs connected Traffic at exchange Connections to the exchange (capacity)* Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks legal Operator Location Most important IXPs in Europe: cont'd Name of NAP 237 238 C-2 Final Report Peering guidelines of Internet backbone providers The following tables exhibit main features of the peering guidelines of selected Internet backbone providers. The expressions used in the tables are taken essentially from the original documents. The data was collected in the 3rd quarter of 2001. We focused on the requirements for peering in the US and Europe. Table C-5: Overview of peering guidelines – Broadwing Communications Company Broadwing Communications412 Network for which peering policy is applied Not specified Requirements for connections to peering points Number At least 2 connections Location Geographically dispersed (geographic regions defined for the location of network nodes) Public: connections to at least 2 geographically dispersed exchange points where Broadwing is also connected (currently MAE-East ATM, MAE-West ATM, Ameritech NAP, MAE-Dallas, Sprint NAP) Bandwidth At least 45 Mbit/s at all connections Traffic Imbalance of traffic at most 2,5:1 in either direction Private: total traffic at least 20 Mbps on all connections in both directions; for additional connections to existing locations, average weekly traffic utilization of 85% for an individual existing connection required SLAs on traffic exchanged • Availability: at least 99,99% • Packet loss: at most 1% • Delay: at most 100 ms Routing requirements • CIDR at edge routers using BGP-4 and aggregated routes • Consistent routing announcements • No route of last resort directed at Broadwing • Route announcements only for own customers Network characteristics Size of network Nationally deployed Internet backbone in the US Bandwidth of backbone circuits Dedicated circuits of at least OC-3 Location of network nodes Nodes in 8 geographic regions where Broadwing has nodes 412 Specific requirements for direct (private) or public peers are denoted as such in the following lines. All other requirements represent the general peering policy of the company. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Table C-5: Overview of peering guidelines – Broadwing Communications: cont'd Company 239 Topology Broadwing Communications • Redundant Internet backbone • Each backbone PoP connected to at least 2 other hubs on own backbone Operational requirements • Network operation centre 24x7 Informational requirements • List of existing interconnection connections • Establishment of "trouble ticket" and "escalation" procedures • Copy of network • Register routes with Internet Routing Registry or other registry Guidelines available at Source: WIK-Consult www.broadwing.com/download/peering/policy_2000_ver2.0.doc 240 Final Report Table C-6: Overview of peering guidelines – Cable&Wireless Company Cable&Wireless413 Network for which peering policy is applied US peering policy with global backbone (AS 3561) Requirements for connections to peering points Number At least 4 connections Location Geographically dispersed (including one on the East and West coast, one in the Midwest or in the South) Bandwidth At least 155 Mbps at all connections Traffic • Aggregated traffic ratio at most 2:1 • Traffic volume at each connection at least 45 Mbps; SLAs on traffic exchanged Routing requirements • CIDR at edge routers using BGP-4 and providing sufficiently aggregated routes (applicant agrees to operate any routing protocol that may be defined later) • Consistent routing announcements • No route of last resort directed at C&W • Route announcements only for own customers • Filtering of routes (by prefix or AS) Network characteristics Size of network Nationally deployed Internet backbone in the US Bandwidth of backbone circuits Dedicated circuits of at least OC-48c Location of network nodes Nodes in 9 geographic regions where C&W has nodes Topology • Redundant Internet backbone • Each backbone hub connected to at least 2 other hubs on own backbone Operational requirements Network operation centre 24x7 Informational requirements • Copy of network • Network topology • Capacity between nodes • Register routes and routing policy with Internet Routing Registry Guidelines available at http://www.cw.com/th_05.asp?ID=us_10_02 Source: WIK-Consult 413 The following conditions refer both to private and public peering. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Table C-7: 241 Overview of peering guidelines – Electric Lightwave Company Electric Lightwave (EL)414 Network for which peering policy is applied Not specified Requirements for connections to peering points Number and location Public domestic: Connection to at least 3 locations where EL has NAP presence (currently PAIX Seattle, Oregon IX, MAE West FDDI, PAIX Palo Alto, MAE West ATM, MAE Central, Chicago AADS, MAE East ATM, PAIX Vienna); two of these connections in peering region 1 or 2 and 5; obligation to interconnect at any NAP where both parties have a presence Private domestic: at least 3 locations where EL has an edge router; one of these in peering region 1 or 2, one in peering region 3 or 4, one in peering region 5 Private and public international: at minimum a West coast connection for Asian based peers, an East coast connection for European based peers Bandwidth Sufficient bandwidth behind any peering connection Private domestic: minimum size of PNI is DS3 Traffic SLAs on traffic exchanged Public domestic: at least 1 Mbps of cumulative traffic at each peering point Public: When peering across WorldCom ATM NAPs, best effort PVCs only Routing requirements • Same routing policy announced at all peering points • No abuse e.g. pointing default • Separate BGP4 peering policy and static routing policy v1.0 Network characteristics Size of network Private domestic: at least 10 PoPs Private or public international: majority of network and services offered outside North America Bandwidth of backbone circuits Private domestic: at least OC12 Private or public international: at least DS3 connecting the US with one point outside North America Location of network nodes Private domestic: nodes in different cities; at least 1 PoP must be located in each of EL’s 5 peering regions 414 Specific requirements for direct (private) or public peers are denoted as such in the following lines. All other requirements represent the general peering policy of the company. There is further distinction between domestic and international peering. 242 Table C-7: Final Report Overview of peering guidelines – Electric Lightwave: cont'd Company Topology Operational requirements Electric Lightwave (EL) Public domestic: sufficient connectivity between peering points to support closest exit routing • Network operation centre 24x7; • Resolve congestion issues within a defined timeframe e.g. adding more bandwidth or adding connectivity at another site in the same or adjacent peering region • Respond to all technical issues within 48 hours • Cooperate in chasing security violations etc. Informational requirements Guidelines available at Source: WIK-Consult http://www.eli.net/techsupport/bgp/bp-policy.shtml (peering policy) http://www.eli.net/techsupport/routing/cp-policy.shtml (BGP peering policy) http://www.eli.net/techsupport/bgp/static-policy.shtml (Static routing policy) http://www.eli.net/techsupport/bgp/index.shtml (IP Routing Policies, Procedures and Information Page) Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Table C-8: 243 Overview of peering policy – France Télécom Company France Télécom415 416 Network for which peering policy is applied AS 5511 Requirements for connections to peering points Number and location For worldwide peering (public or private) at least 5 geographically dispersed locations in Europe, 4 in the US and 2 in Asia (specific mandatory cities are defined); 2 not necessarily dispersed connections for local peering Public: active connections to at least 3 geographically dispersed NAPs in Europe where France Télécom is also connected (currently MAE-East, MAE-West, PAIX, Ameritech NAP, Sprint NAP, LINX, PARIX, CIX, BNIX, DGIX, AMS-IX, Hong-Kong and Tokyo JPIX). Ability and willingness to connect to at least 4 NAPs Bandwidth Private: at least 45 Mbps at all connections Traffic • For local peering at least 45 Mbps of aggregated traffic • At least 10 Mb of bilateral traffic at each peering connection • Imbalance of traffic at most 3:1 in either direction • Shutdown of peering if the connection is loaded more than 95% during more than two hours Private: for additional connections to existing locations, average daily traffic utilization of 65% for an individual existing connection required SLAs on traffic exchanged Routing requirements • CIDR at edge routers using BGP-4 and aggregated routes • Consistent routes announcements at all peering points • Filtering of routes at network edge • No route of last resort directed at France Télécom • Route announcements only for own customers Network characteristics Size of network For regional and worldwide peering nationally deployed Internet backbone in countries where peering is desired 415 The requirements refer only to the non domestic IP network and represents France Télécom´s long distance peering policy. 416 Specific requirements for direct (private) or public peers are denoted as such in the following lines. All other requirements represent the general peering policy of the company. There is further distinction between peering worldwide, regionally (i.e. peering over one continent) and locally (i.e. peering in a specific country). 244 Final Report Table C-8: Overview of peering policy – France Télécom: cont'd Company Bandwidth of backbone circuits Location of network nodes Topology Operational requirements France Télécom For regional or worldwide peering dedicated IP circuits of at least OC-12 in the US and in Europe, OC-3 in Asia Each backbone hub connected to at least two other hubs on own backbone • Network operation centre 24x7 • Establishment of "trouble ticket" and "escalation" procedures Informational requirements • Register routes with Internet Routing Registry or other registry Guidelines available at http://vision.opentransit.net/docs/peering_policy/ Source: WIK-Consult • Copy of network for the region where peering is desired including a list of existing peering connections Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Table C-9: 245 Overview of peering guidelines - Genuity Company Genuity417 Network for which peering policy is applied Domestic AS1 Europe AS 7176 Domestic ISPs: at least 3 connections at the following NAPs: MAE-East ATM, MAEWest ATM, AADS Chicago, MAE Dallas ATM (2 of which must be MAE East ATM and MAE West ATM) At least one connection at the following NAPs: LINX, AMS-IX, MAE-Frankfurt, D-GIX (SE-GIX), MIXITA, SFINX Requirements for connections to peering points Number and location International ISPs: at least 2 connections at the NAPs listed above Bandwidth Traffic At least 1 Mbps traffic exchange At least 100 Kbps traffic exchange Domestic ISPs: roughly balanced traffic SLAs on traffic exchanged Routing requirements Network characteristics Size of network Bandwidth of backbone circuits Location of network nodes Topology Operational requirements Consistent route announcements Domestic ISPs: coast to coast nationwide backbone in US Domestic ISPs: at least 155 Mbps • Network operation centre 24x7 • LSRR capability at core border routers on network Informational requirements Guidelines available at www.genuity.com/infrastructure/interconnection.pdf Source: WIK-Consult 417 The following conditions refer only to public peering. There is further distinction between domestic and international ISPs for AS1. 246 Final Report Table C-10: Overview of peering guidelines – Level 3 418 Company Level 3419 Network for which peering policy is applied North America Requirements for connections to peering points Number and location Connections in at least 10 major US markets Public: at least 3 geographically diverse connections at the following NAPs: Sprint NAP; MAE East, Ameritech NAP, MAE West, PAIX; Private: connections in at least 6 of the following cities: NY, Washington, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, LA, San Jose, San Francisco, Seattle Bandwidth Private: at least OC-3 at all connections Traffic Private: at least 150 Mb/s of average bi-directional traffic exchange SLAs on traffic exchanged Routing requirements Europe Public (regional for AS 9057): connections at 2 of the following NAPs: AMSIX, BNIX, DECIX, LINX, MAE Frankfurt, PARIX; SFINX Public (all Level 3 customer routes): connections to at least 3 of the above listed NAPs Public (AS 9057 and all Level 3 customer routes): at least OC-3 to each NAP • Consistent routing announcements • Route announcements only for own customers • No route of last resort shall be directed at each other Network characteristics Size of network Bandwidth of backbone circuits Location of network nodes Topology At least OC-48 intercity capacity Redundant Internet backbone 418 Requirements for peering in Asia are not displayed in the table. 419 Specific requirements for direct (private) or public peers are denoted as such in the following lines. All other requirements represent the general peering policy of the company. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Table C-10: 247 Overview of peering guidelines – Level 3: cont'd Company Level 3 Operational requirements • Network operation centre 24x7 • "Escalation path" to resolve network issues (e.g. routing or congestion) • Definition of an upgrade path to accommodate traffic growth • Network operation centre 24x7 • "Escalation path" to resolve network issues (e.g. routing or congestion) Informational requirements • Register routes, routing domains, Register routes, routing domains, routing policy with routing policy with Internet Internet Routing Registry Routing Registry • Network topology • Backbone capacity • Interconnection points Guidelines available at http://www.level3.de/de/services/crossroads/policy Source: WIK-Consult 248 Final Report Table C-11: Overview of peering guidelines – WorldCom 420 Company WorldCom421 Network for which peering policy is applied US (AS701) Europe (AS702) • Ratio of aggregate traffic exchanged roughly balanced, at most 1,5:1 • Ratio of aggregate traffic exchanged roughly balanced, at most 1,5:1 • Aggregate amount of traffic exchanged in each direction over all connections at least 150 Mbps • Aggregate amount of traffic exchanged in each direction over all connections at least 30 Mbps Requirements for connections to peering points Number and location Bandwidth Traffic SLAs on traffic exchanged Routing requirements Network characteristics Size of network "Shortest exist routing" (unless both partners agree mutually otherwise); Facilities capable of terminating customer leased line IP connections onto a router in at least 50% of the geographic region which the requestor wants to interconnect to; currently 15 states in the US Facilities capable of terminating customer leased line IP connections onto a router in at least 50% of the geographic region which the requestor wants to interconnect to; currently 8 countries in Europe Bandwidth of backbone circuits Majority of inter-hub trunking links at least OC-12 (622 Mbps) Majority of the inter-hub trunking links at least DS-3, (45 Mbps) Location of network nodes • Geographically dispersed network • At least an East coast location, a West coast location and two Midwest locations Geographically dispersed network 420 Requirements for peering in Asia (AS 703) are not displayed in the table. 421 The following conditions refer both to private and public peering. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks Table C-11: Overview of peering guidelines – WorldCom: cont'd Company 249 Topology WorldCom • Redundant Internet backbone • Traffic exchange links of sufficient robustness, aggregate capacity and geographic dispersion to facilitate performance across the peering connections Operational requirements • Network operation centre 24x7 • Dealing with routing or security issues within 2 hours Informational requirements Guidelines available at Source: WIK-Consult • Redundant Internet backbone • Traffic exchange links of sufficient robustness, aggregate capacity and geographic dispersion to facilitate performance across the peering connections www.worldcom.com/peering/ 250 Final Report D Annex for Chapter 8 D-1 Modelling the strategic interests of core ISPs in the presence of network effects In this annex we provide a more detailed analysis of the work of CRT and M&S, than appears in Chapter 8 of the main report. The models of the Internet presented by CRT and M&S describe a simplified Internet so that analysis can focus on what researchers consider to be the most important relationships. The main simplifications employed are outlined detail below. There is no empirical evidence presented as to the values of the parameters that appear in both models. The authors do provide a discussion of the likely ranges of these variables, and we discuss these below. 1. Simplifications in the Internet's structure: The model is of a simplified Internet structure comprising only 3 ISP competitors, and does not account for the fact that smaller ISPs are typically connected to larger ISPs, and many of them are multi-homed. • Might the more complex structure of the Internet provide for reactions that the model misses and that would alter the strategies of the players in a fundamental way, or the conditions under which a strategy of degraded interconnection would work?422,423 • In CRT there is no reaction of customers of A to the loss of connectivity with subscribers of B. - Would the efforts of content providers seeking to maintain QoS to B's customers by providing content directly on B's network, e.g. through caching and mirroring, alter the viability of the dominant firm's degradation strategy? - Would customers connected through transit arrangements with A employ alternative transit arrangements that provide non degraded access to B (i.e. through bypassing A to interconnect with B). 2. The values of the model's parameters: 422 In CRT's paper multi-homing in a simplified structure does not fundamentally alter the incentive to degrade interconnection, although it reduces the level of A's advantage. It also suggest that the larger ISP has an incentive to target the smallest ISP with degraded interconnection, and this incentive increases with the overlap of address space that occurs with multi-homing. 423 CRT's model employed the framework originally devised by Katz and Shapiro in their influential 1985 paper. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks (i) 251 The externality effect: For targeted degradation to be attractive it is necessary in CRT's model that v (the value that customers place on connectivity) be above ⅓. CRT also show that values of v > ½ are implausible (v is important in explaining the shares of the ‘benefits’ of a targeted degradation policy that go to A and C. v needs to be high enough so that degradation is sufficiently harmful to the target ISP (B) but not so high that large numbers of A's own customers do not switch to C, which as we note in the first bullet above is the only ISP able to provide universal connectivity, even though it is much smaller than A. (ii) Numbers of present compared to future customers (β = 1 means the network is already at its maximum; β = 0.5 means that half of the total of those that will be subscribers in the future, are yet to subscribe): A model needs to be able to capture the relative effects of strategic actions, both on existing customers, and on the behaviour of those who are not yet customers, but will subscribe in the future. If there are relatively few customers that remain to be signed up, then a danger with any strategy that targets these potential customers is the effect it has on existing subscribers. Given that there will be arguments over relative size of each group, the sensitivity of the model's predictions to changes in this value might have a bearing on the risk involved with a strategy that degrades interconnection at one (or more) targeted points. (iii) The cost of serving additional customers: The cost of adding additional subscribers (c) will cover a range of potential values up to where c equals average total costs, such that there are no fixed costs, in which case c ≡ 1. The question is whether the ranges of values of the model’s variables that would make attractive to a market leading ISP a strategy of targeted degradation (or refusal) of interconnection, are reasonable. If they are not then the suggestion would be that this strategy is not viable in practice. Figure D-1 (a) and (b) shows M&S's graphs where A faces 3 other equally size competitors each with a 10%, (left) and 7.5% (right) market share. It is also assumed that half of all potential subscribers are current subscribers to one of the four networks (i.e. β = 0.5)424, and v ≤ ½ (recall that in CRT, ⅓ < v < ½), and c ≤ 1.425 424 Values of v > ½ are found to imply implausible outcomes. See M&S p12. At values v < ⅓ the network effects appear to provide the fully interconnected network with too much advantage out of the degradation strategy. 252 Final Report Figure D-1: Range of possible outcomes of a global degradation strategy D D C B A1 A2 Z Valuation, v B A1 A2 Marginal Cost, c Marginal Cost, c (a) β = 0.5, m 1 = .6 (b) β = 0.5, m 1= .7 D Z C B A1 A2 Marginal Cost, c (c) β = 1.0, m 1 = .6 Z Valuation, v Valuation, v C Valuation, v Z B A1 A2 Marginal Cost, c (d) β = 1.0, m 1= .7 425 As did CRT, M&S also discuss the situation where A faces a single rival. We have not chosen to discuss that here as most of what we learn from this can also be obtained from the case where A faces 3 rivals. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 253 In the case of (c) and (d) it is assumed that the Internet is as large as it is going to get (β = 1), which cancels the trade-off the largest ISP must make, between: • Being less attractive to those who will take out a first subscription to the Internet in the future, (due to the depleted size of A's interconnected network), in comparison to the 2 networks for which interconnection is not degraded, and • The increase in market power that may be achieved through degrading interconnection with one of the smaller rivals. Clearly, the values of v and c, are vital to the viability of such a predatory strategy by the dominant network, as is the present compared to future Internet penetration rate (β), and the proportion of the total customer base subscribing to the largest network (m1). The number of competing networks also increases the area in which tipping away from the ‘dominant’ network can occur. This occurs because of the increased level of competition between them provides constraints on all networks which reduces the possibility (area) that the largest network can profitably capture the comparative advantage and be more successful in attracting new customers. M&S then model the situation for targeted degradation where there are three ISPs, one with 50% market share (m1), and two with 25% share each. M&S map the ranges where targeted degradation of interconnection would be a profitable strategy as modelled. These profitable areas are shown as shaded areas in Figure D-2. The strategies analysed, the types of outcomes (regions) and their explanations, are summarised in Table D-1. Table D-1: Interconnection strategies and network tipping A's best strategy • • Region Explanation Global interconnection / no degradation Region A1 Leads to a worse interior situation for A Region C Leads to tipping away from A Sensation / degradation of interconnection Region A2 Leads to a worse interior situation for A Region B Leads to tipping toward A • Ambiguous Region D Sensation / degradation of interconnection can lead to tipping toward or away from A • Global interconnection / no degradation preferred Region Z Area of implausible values for c and v 254 Final Report Figure D-2: Profitable regions of targeted degradation strategy Z h g Valuation, v Valuation, v Z h g Marginal Cost, c (b) β = 0.5 Valuation, v Z h Valuation, v Marginal Cost, c (a) β = 0.25 Z h g Marginal Cost, c (c) β = 0.75 g Marginal Cost, c (d) β = 1.0 M&S investigate the likely range of values for c in terms of: • The maximum willingness to pay (WTP) of tomorrow's highest value subscriber as a ratio of tomorrows subscription price; referred to as M, and • The ratio of price to marginal cost (which is expressed as a ratio of average total cost (ATC); call this value α,426 given that v < ½ and β ≤ 1 In the case of (c) and (d) it is assumed that the Internet is as large as it is going to get (β = 1), and this cancels the trade-off the largest ISP must make, between the following two bullets: 426 ATC is simply the total of all variable and fixed costs divided by the total units of output. Internet traffic exchange and the economics of IP networks 255 • ISP A being less attractive to those who will take out a first subscription to the Internet in the future, (due to the depleted size of A's interconnected network), in comparison to the two networks for which interconnection is not degraded, and • The increase in A’s market power that may be achieved through degrading interconnection with one of the smaller rivals. Table D-2 shows values for c given values of M between 5 and 20, and values of α between 1 (i.e. where there are no fixed costs) and 10 (where the marginal cost of connecting a new subscriber is 1/10 of the average total cost per subscriber). By looking at Figures D-1 and D-2, it is clear that there is relatively little room for a successful strategy of targeted degradation of interconnection by the largest network. It would require a very large market share and for values for several of the models variables to be lower than we would expect to find in reality. Table D-2: Feasible upper bounds for c M 5 α 10 15 20 1.00 0.40 0.20 0.13 0.08 2.00 0.20 0.10 0.07 0.05 5.00 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.02 10.00 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 Source: Malueg and Schwartz (2001) We note that the CRT model and the alternative configuration of M&S are stylised. The model does not account for some features of the Internet that may have a bearing on the viability of a degradation strategy. Perhaps the most important of these is the multilayered and loosely hierarchical nature of the Internet today, and the prevalence of secondary peering and the growth of other substitutes for connectivity with the core backbone, such as caching, mirroring and content delivery networks (CDNs).