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Supplementary appendix This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. We post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Wedzicha JA, Decramer M, Ficker JH, et al. Analysis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations with the dual bronchodilator QVA149 compared with glycopyrronium and tiotropium (SPARK): a randomised, double-blind, parallel-group study. Lancet Respir Med 2013; published online April 23. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/S2213-2600(13)70052-3. 1 Supplementary Appendix Supplement to: Wedzicha JA, Decramer M, Ficker JH, et al. Analysis of COPD Exacerbations with the Dual Bronchodilator QVA149 Compared with Glycopyrronium and Tiotropium (SPARK): a Randomized, Doubleblind, Parallel-group Study. Contents Section 1. Study investigators Section 2. Exacerbation adjudication procedure Section 3. Patient exclusion criteria Section 4. Exacerbation efficacy outcomes Section 5. Adjudication of serious CCV adverse events Section 6. Statistical methods Section 7. Sample size calculations Section 8. Countries involved in the studies and numbers of patients enrolled Section 9. History of cardiovascular disease and presence of cardiovascular risk factors at baseline Section 10. Baseline characteristics of the patients who opted in and out of continuing in the study extension period Section 11. Analysis of the number of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations per patient during the study treatment period Section 12. Analysis of moderate to severe COPD exacerbations by ICS use Section 13. Sensitivity analyses of primary variable Section 14. Cox regression analysis of time to first severe COPD exacerbation Section 15. (a) Annualized exacerbation rates by severity of exacerbation, and (b) annualized rates of moderate/severe exacerbations by treatment requirements Section 16. Post-hoc sensitivity analysis of the primary efficacy variable Section 17. Analysis of odds ratios associated with percentages of patients achieving the MCID in SGRQ total score Section 18. SGRQ component scores Section 19. Overall and individual adverse events Section 20. Incidences of overall mortality and individual causes of death Section 21. Incidence of adjudicated CCV adverse events 2 Section 1 Study investigators Argentina: Dr. Alberto Tolcachier, Dr. Alicia Rodriguez, Dr. Alvaro Alonso, Dr. Ana Lopez, Dr. Anahi Yanez, Dr. Andrea Medina, Dr. Angel Piacenza, Dr. Carlos Luna, Dr. Cristian Carminio, Dr. Eduardo Giugno, Dr. Enrrique Casal, Dr. Fernando Scherbovsky, Dr. Fernando Verra, Dr. Gabriel Garcia, Dr. Gisela Delgado Vizcarra, Dr. Guillermo Montiel, Dr. Horacio Budani, Dr. Jorge Rosso, Dr. Juan Belloni, Dr. Juan Carlos Figueroa Casas, Dr. Lucia Marzoratti, Dr. Luis Nannini, Dr. Luis Larrateguy, Dr. Luis Wehbe, Dr. Luisa Beatriz Rey, Dr. Marcelo Fernandez, Dr. Maria De Salvo, Dr. Martin Maillo, Dr. Miguel Bergna, Dr. Ramon Alchapar, Dr. Ramon Rojas, Dr. Ricardo del Olmo, Dr. Ricardo Gene, Dr. Walter Mattarucco, Dr. Xavier Bocca. Austria: Dr. Josef Wuertz, Dr. Joze Messner, Dr. Othmar Ablinger, Dr. Peter Wuertz, Dr. Robert Voves. Canada: Dr. Bonavuth Pek, Dr. Bruno Paradis, Dr. Claude Poirier, Dr. François Blouin, Dr. Guy Chouinard, Dr. Jean Roy, Dr. Mohit Bhutani, Dr. Ronald Grossman. Colombia: Dr. Alejandro Echavarria, Dr. Alvaro Urbina, Dr. Carlos Matiz, Dr. Fernando Londoño, Dr. Guido Cardona, Dr. Jaime Sanchez Vallejo, Dr. Ruben Contreras. Czech Republic: Dr. Ales Tauchman, Dr. Ivana Bouckova, Dr. Jana Psikalova, Dr. Jaroslav Mares, Dr. Jiri Zimmer, Dr. Jolana Presperinova, Dr. Josef Fratrik, Dr. Josef Veverka, Dr. Luba Strouhova, Dr. Marie Buresova, Dr. Martin Hadrava, Dr. Martina Cmakalova, Dr. Masroor Ali, Dr. Milos Havlik, Dr. Miluse Zitkova, Dr. Petr Kolman, Dr. Stanislav Holub, Dr. Viktor Kasak. Denmark: Dr. Carl Nielsen, Dr. Charlotte Suppli Ulrik , Dr. Claus Johnsen, Dr. Niels Seersholm, Dr. Povl Revsbech, Dr. Vibeke Backer, Dr. Zofia Grzywacz. Estonia: Dr. Eve Kuulpak, Dr. Mari Meren, Dr. Rain Jogi. Finland: Dr. Juhani Elo, Dr. Kari Venho, Dr. Pekka Saarelainen. France: Dr. Bertrand Herer, Dr. Cecil Chenivesse, Dr. Christophe Verkindre, Dr. Houari Meziane. Germany: Dr. Anatoli Kaiser, Dr. Andreas Benedix, Dr. Anneliese Linnhoff, Dr. Axel Kroker, Dr. Christian Gessner, Dr. Claudia Büttner, Dr. Dagmar Eberhard-Forschner, Dr. Frank Eberhardt, Dr. Frank Feldmeyer, Dr. Franz-Josef Berger, Dr. Grit Lammert-Huenger, Dr. Harald Mueller-Pawlowski, Dr. Helen Arievich, Dr. Helmuth Leiner, Dr. Hilger Mueller, Dr. Joachim Kirschner, Dr. Joachim Weimer, Dr. Joerg Reinhardt, Dr. Karin Foerster, Dr. Ludger Lindemann, Dr. Lutz Volgmann, Dr. Lutz von Versen, Dr. Margit Korduan, Dr. Margret Jandl, Dr. Markus Hoefer, Dr. Martin Hoster, Dr. Matthias Rolke, Dr. Oliver Kornmann, Dr. Peter Ring, Dr. Peter van Bodegom, Dr. Peter-Uwe Haase, Dr. Rainer Gebhardt, Dr. Regina Deckelmann, Dr. Reiner Laumen, Dr. Roland Balzer, Dr. Rudolf Henning, Dr. Sebastian Sohrab, Dr. Stefan Kehm, Dr. Sven Birkholz, Dr. Thomas Ginko, Dr. Tibor Schmoller, Dr. Ulrich Botzen, Dr. Ulrike Westerhausen, Dr. Umberto Gehling, Dr. Wassilis Tzimas, Dr. Wolfgang Schurmann, Dr. Wolfram Zingler, Prof. Dr. Joachim Ficker. Greece: Assist. Prof. Georgios Tatsis, Dr. Angeliki Rapti, Dr. Asimina Gaga, Dr. Despoina Papakosta, Dr. Epaminondas Kosmas, Dr. Marianna Kakoura, Dr. Michalis Toumbis, Dr. Niki Georgatou-Papageorgiou, Dr. Paraskevi Katsaounou, Prof. Konstantinos Gourgoulianis, Prof. Spyridon Papiris. Hungary: Dr. Aranka Bánvolgyi, Dr. Beatrix Balint, Dr. Csaba Salamon, Dr. Ildiko Szarka, Dr. Istvan Varkonyi, Dr. Karoly Fonay, Dr. Katalin Csicsari, Dr. Katalin Rajkai, Dr. Maria Jedlinszki, Dr. Zsuzsanna Szalai, Prof. Dr. György Losonczy. India: Dr. Anthony Mesquita, Dr. Jagdish Suri, Dr. Padukudru Mahesh, Dr. Pradyut Waghray, Dr. Rajendran Nair, Dr. Rajesh Swarnakar, Dr. Sameer Chandratre, Dr. Sandeep Saboo, Dr. Srikanth Krishnamurthy, Dr. Srinivasan Nagarajan, Dr. Sundeep Salvi, Dr. Vallandramam PattabhiRaman, Dr. Vijai Ratnavelu, Dr. Virendra Singh. Ireland: Dr. Liam Cormican, Prof. Stephen Lane. 3 Israel: Dr. David Lieberman, Dr. David Shitrit, Dr. Gershon Fink, Dr. Yehuda Schwarz, Dr. Zeev Vilayi-Weiler, Prof. Issahar Ben-Dov, Prof. Mordechai Kramer, Prof. Raphael Breuer. Italy: Dr. Antonio Miadonna, Dr. Marco Bonavia, Dr. Maria Pia Foschino Barbaro, Dr. Maurizio Dottorini, Dr. Maurizio Feliciani, Dr. Simonetta Monti, Prof. Carlo Mereu, Prof. Isa Cerveri, Prof. Nunzio Crimi, Prof. Paola Rottoli, Prof. Pierluigi Paggiaro, Prof. Roberto Duranti. Mexico: Dr. Alejandro Quesada Sanchez, Dr. Ernestina Ramírez, Dr. Jesus Diaz, Dr. Raúl Sansores, Dr. Sergio Lopez, Dr. Uriel Chavarria. Netherlands: Dr. Christian F. Melissant, Dr. David Cheung, Dr. Dirk De Munck, Dr. Henk E. J. Sinninghe-Damste, Dr. Henk Los, Dr. Henk R. Pasma, Dr. Paul van der Valk, Dr. Peter M.J.M. de Vries, Dr. Ragmar Lunde, Dr. Stephanus J. Gans, Dr. Theo Bantje, Dr. Willem Pieters. Peru: Dr. Alberto Matsuno, Dr. Alfredo Guerreros, Dr. Cesar Villaran, Dr. Danilo Salazar Ono, Dr. Jose Torres, Dr. Marco Camere, Dr. Socorro Castro. Philippines: Dr. Aileen S. David-Wang, Dr. Araceli Maliwat, Dr. Dina Diaz, Dr. Edzel Tamayo, Dr. Joel Santiaguel, Dr. Tito C. Atienza. Poland: Dr. Grazyna Jasieniak-Pinis, Dr. Izabella Krupa-Borek, Dr. Krystyna Folcik, Dr. Piotr Nalepa, Dr. Zenon Siergiejko, Prof. Pawel Sliwinski, Prof. Wladyslaw Pierzchala. Russia: Dr. Elena Gaydar, Dr. Evgenii Shmelev, Prof. Alexander Emelyanov, Prof. Alexander Komlev, Prof. Alexander Sinopalnikov, Prof. Alexander Zhestkov, Prof. Galina Ignatova, Prof. Igor Leshchenko, Prof. Irina Ruzhova, Prof. Mikhail Kharitonov, Prof. Mikhail M. Ilkovich, Prof. Nataliya Shaporova, Prof. Rustem Fassakhov, Prof. Shamil Palutin, Prof. Tatiana Martynenko, Prof. Vasiliy Trofimov, Prof. Vladimir Abrosimov, Prof. Vladimir Simanenkov. Slovakia: Dr. Alexander Golubov, Dr. Erika Pribulova, Dr. Helena Horvathova, Dr. Juraj Mazal, Dr. Luboslava Frajtova, Dr. Maria Pobehova, Dr. Pavol Karako, Dr. Vladimir Kretik, Dr. Yveta Kubikova, Prof. Dr. Eva Rozborilova. South Africa: Dr. Boitomelo Sebopa, Dr. Ismail Abdullah, Dr. Tasneem Vally, Prof. Susanna Visser. Spain: Dr. Hector Verea, Dr. Jose Luis Velasco, Dr. Luis De Teresa. UK: Dr. Alaisdair Stewart, Dr. Anoop Chauhan, Dr. Bhavesh Bodalia, Dr. Christine Bucknall, Dr. David Singh, Dr. Dinesh Saralaya, Dr. Justin Pepperell, Dr. Lee Dowson, Dr. Monica Nordstrom, Dr. Nicky Simler, Dr. Nicola Stevenson, Dr. Richard Harrison, Dr. Ross Martin , Dr. Terek Saba, Prof. Jadwiga Wedzicha. USA: Dr. Allan Seibert, Dr. Amit Patel, Dr. Anjuli Nayak, Dr. Benjamin Laracuente, Dr. Brian Kim, Dr. Charles Fogarty, Dr. Charles M. Arena, Dr. David Ostransky, Dr. David Phillips, Dr. Edward Kerwin, Dr. Edward Lisberg, Dr. Felix Morris, Dr. George Bensch, Dr. Gustavo Dubois, Dr. Henry Covelli, Dr. James Taylor, Dr. James L. Pearle, Dr. James Meli, Jr., Dr. Jan Westerman, Dr. Jerome Mirkil, Dr. Joe Ramsdell, Dr. John Burk, Dr. Jose A. Santiago, Jr., Dr. Joseph Austin, Jr., Dr. Joseph Graif, Dr. Kenneth Chinsky, Dr. Linda Ford, Dr. Manuel Villareal, Dr. Mark Millard, Dr. Michael Noonan, Dr. Mitchell Lee, Dr. Navdeep Rai, Dr. Padmashri Rastogi, Dr. Paul Shapero, Dr. Peter Krumpe, Dr. Phillip Korenblat, Dr. Robert Sussman, Dr. Samir Arora, Dr. Selwyn Spangenthal, Dr. Shari Anne Brazinsky, Dr. Stephen Basheda, Dr. Stephen Lee, Dr. Thomas Kaelin, Dr. Thomas Lemire, Dr. Thomas Siler, Dr. William Goetter. 4 Section 2. Exacerbation adjudication procedure Treatment of a COPD exacerbation was at the discretion of the treating physician, although a 2-week oral course of prednisone (or equivalent), and/or an oral 7-day course of amoxicillin was recommended. The start date for a COPD exacerbation was the first day of symptom worsening recorded in the e-diary. The end of a COPD exacerbation was marked by the return to pre-exacerbation symptom status. If the start date was less than 7 days after the end of a previous exacerbation, this was assumed to be one continuous exacerbation. COPD exacerbations were not recorded as adverse events. Any reported adverse events of pneumonia that may have occurred with the exacerbation were confirmed by chest X-ray and the pneumonia recorded as an adverse event. An independent expert adjudication committee (see below) was established to assess COPD exacerbations. The committee was not directly involved in the study conduct. The panel of pulmonologists prospectively reviewed all moderate and severe COPD exacerbations in a blinded fashion. The panel determined if the exacerbation met the protocol-defined criteria and was not a case of pneumonia or other unrelated adverse event. The committee adjudicated on whether the exacerbations were relapses/continuation of previous events. Mild exacerbations were not adjudicated. Exacerbation Adjudication Committee (adjudication of moderate and severe exacerbation events) Dr Dennis E. Niewoehner VA Medical Center Pulmonary Section 111N Minneapolis, MN 55417, USA Professor Marc Decramer, MD Head of Department Pneumology University Hospital Leuven Campus Gasthuisberg Herestraat 49, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium Thomas Sandström, M.D. PhD Umeå University Departmentt of Public Health and Clinical Medicine SE-901 85 Umeå, Sweden 5 Section 3. Patient exclusion criteria 1. Pregnant women or nursing mothers. 2. Women of child-bearing potential. 3. Patients requiring daily long-term oxygen therapy for chronic hypoxemia. 4. Patients who had a COPD exacerbation that required treatment with antibiotics, systemic corticosteroids (oral or intravenous) or hospitalization in the 6 weeks prior to Visit 1 (Day −21) or between Visit 1 (Day −21) and Visit 3 (Day 1). 5. Patients who developed a COPD exacerbation during a period between Visit 1 (Day −21) and 3 (Day 1) were ineligible but were permitted to be re-screened after a minimum of 6 weeks after the resolution of the COPD exacerbation. 6. Patients who had a respiratory tract infection within 4 weeks prior to Visit 1 (Day −21). Patients who developed an upper or lower respiratory tract infection during the screening period (up to Visit 3 [Day 1]) were not eligible, but were permitted to be re-screened 4 weeks after the resolution of the respiratory tract infection. 7. Patients with concomitant pulmonary disease, e.g. pulmonary tuberculosis (unless confirmed by chest x-ray to be no longer active), clinically significant bronchiectasis, sarcoidosis, interstitial lung disorder or pulmonary hypertension. 8. Patients with lung lobectomy, or lung volume reduction or lung transplantation. 9. Patients who, in the judgment of the investigator, have a clinically relevant laboratory abnormality or a clinically significant condition such as (but not limited to): unstable ischemic heart disease, left ventricular failure, history of myocardial infarction, arrhythmia (excluding chronic stable atrial fibrillation). Patients with such events not considered clinically significant by the investigator may be considered for inclusion in the study history of malignancy of any organ system (including lung cancer), treated or untreated, within the past 5 years whether or not there is evidence of local recurrence or metastases, with the exception of localized basal cell carcinoma of the skin uncontrolled hypo- or hyperthyroidism, hypokalemia or hyperadrenergic state narrow-angle glaucoma symptomatic prostatic hyperplasia or bladder-neck obstruction or moderate to severe renal impairment or urinary retention any condition which might have compromised patient safety or compliance, interfered with evaluation, or precluded completion of the study. 10. Patients with any history of asthma indicated by (but not limited to) a blood eosinophil 3 count > 600/mm (at Visit 2 [Day −14]), or onset of symptoms prior to 40 years. Patients without asthma were excluded if their eosinophil count was >600/mm1 at Visit 2 (Day −14). 11. Patients with allergic rhinitis who used H1-antagonists or intranasal corticosteroids intermittently (treatment with a constant dose was permitted). 12. Patients with eczema (atopic), known high IgE levels or a known positive skin prick test in the last 5 years. 13. Patients with known history and diagnosis of alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. 14. Patients who were participating in the active phase of a supervised pulmonary rehabilitation program. 15. Patients with Type I or uncontrolled Type II diabetes. 16. Patients contraindicated for treatment with, or having a history of reactions/hypersensitivity to any of the following inhaled drugs or drugs of a similar class or any component thereof: anticholinergic agents; long and short acting β2-agonists; or sympathomimetic amines. 6 17. Patients with a history of long QT syndrome or whose QTc interval measured at Visit 2 (Day −14) (Fridericia’s method) was prolonged (>450 ms for males and females), as confirmed by the central ECG assessor. 18. Patients with a clinically significant abnormality on the screening or baseline ECG who in the judgment of the investigator would be at potential risk if enrolled into the study. (These patients could not be re-screened.) 19. Patients who needed treatments for COPD and allied conditions after the start of the study. 20. Patients who needed treatments for COPD and allied conditions (e.g. allergic rhinitis) unless they had been stabilized. 21. Patients taking other prohibited medications. 22. Patients unable to use a dry powder inhaler (e.g. single-dose dry powder inhaler (SDDPI), HandiHaler® device, or pressurized MDI (rescue medication). 23. Patients unable to use an electronic patient diary. 24. Patients who were, in the opinion of the investigator, known to be unreliable or noncompliant. 25. Patients who used other investigational drugs at the time of enrollment, or within 30 days or five half-lives of Visit 1 (Day −21), whichever was longer. 26. Patients who had live attenuated vaccination within 30 days prior to the screening visit or during the run-in period. Inactivated influenza vaccination, pneumococcal vaccination or any other inactivated vaccine was acceptable provided it was not administered within 48 h prior to screening and randomization visits. 7 Section 4. Exacerbation efficacy outcomes Rate of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations during the treatment period. Time to first moderate or severe COPD exacerbation. Rate of COPD exacerbations requiring systemic corticosteroids only, antibiotics only, or both systemic glucocorticoids and antibiotics. Proportion of patients with at least one severe COPD exacerbation that required hospitalizations. Time to first severe COPD exacerbation that required hospitalization. Rate of moderate COPD exacerbations. Rate of all COPD exacerbations (mild, moderate or severe). Proportion of patients with at least one moderate or severe COPD exacerbation. Proportion of the number of days with moderate or severe COPD exacerbations. Proportion of the number of days on systemic corticosteroids for COPD exacerbation, the proportion of the number of days on antibiotics treatment for COPD exacerbation and the proportion of the number of days on both systemic corticosteroids and antibiotics treatment COPD exacerbation. Subgroup analyses for the rate of moderate or severe COPD exacerbation and the time to first moderate or severe COPD exacerbation: − with and without ICS use − smoking status at baseline (current/ex-smoker) − gender − age category (<65, 65 to <75 and ≥75 years) − race (Caucasian, Asian, and others) − severity of airflow limitation (severe or very severe) − body mass index (>30 and ≤30). Subgroup analyses for the rate of moderate or severe COPD exacerbation only: − region (North America, South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia) − reversibility at screening (≤5%, >5% and ≤12%, >12%) − history of exacerbation (<2 , ≥2 in the previous year) − completers and non-completers − North and South Hemisphere (Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Estonia, Finland, France, Great Britain, Greece, Hungary, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Slovakia and the USA were considered to be Northern hemisphere, and Argentina, Columbia, Peru and South Africa to be Southern hemisphere) − winter season and summer season. Subgroup analyses for rates of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations that required treatment with systemic corticosteroids only, with antibiotic only, and with both systemic corticosteroids and antibiotics: − with and without ICS use − COPD severity (severe or very severe). 8 Section 5. Adjudication of serious CCV adverse events An independent expert adjudication committee (see below) was established to assess mortality and cardio- and cerebrovascular (CCV) safety. The committee was not directly involved in the study conduct. The mortality and CCV safety committee reviewed the cause of every death and the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) classification of reported serious CCV adverse events. Serious CCV events were identified by Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) search terms and each event was assessed against the MACE criteria: non-fatal myocardial infarction; hospitalization for unstable angina; non-fatal stroke; heart failure requiring hospitalization; or coronary revascularization. All reported cases of atrial fibrillation or flutter (including adverse event reporting and ECG reports) were also adjudicated. Clinical Endpoint Center (adjudication of cerebral, cardiovascular, atrial fibrillation and mortality endpoints) Scott Solomon, MD (Chair) Eldrin Foster Lewis, MD (Co-Chair) Peter V. Finn, MD (Physician Reviewer) Ebrahim Barkoudah, MD (Physician Reviewer) Chau M Duong, BS MT (Operational Director) Brigham and Women’s Hospital Clinical Endpoints Center 75 Francis Street Boston, MA 02115, USA. 9 Section 6. Statistical methods The data were analyzed by Novartis Integrated Information Sciences (IIS) associates. This negative binomial model used for analysis of exacerbation rates accounts for most overdispersion that may result from assuming a Poisson distribution.3 For subgroup analyses, treatment by subgroup interaction terms were added to the model. The estimated ratios of exacerbation rates in the treatment groups are presented with twosided 95% confidence intervals (CI). For superiority, the CI should not include 1.0 and the ratio estimate should be less than 1.0. The negative binomial model includes the length of time the patient was in the study as an offset variable, which automatically accounts for patients who discontinued prematurely, the primary analysis was done without imputation. Patients who discontinued early were followed until the end of the 64-week study treatment period to collect adverse events, including COPD exacerbations. For all patients, moderate or severe COPD exacerbations occurring within 14 days of the last treatment were added to the number of adjudicated COPD exacerbations. Trough FEV1 (average of the 45 and 15 minutes pre-dose measurements) are presented as least squares means and estimated treatment differences with associated 95% CI and pvalues for treatment differences. For FEV1 and SGRQ score, missing values were imputed by carrying forward the last observation but not by more than 11 and 14 weeks, respectively. The primary period for assessment of non-exacerbation-related outcomes was 64 weeks. No adjustment for multiplicity was made beyond the primary and key secondary variables. To maintain the overall type-I error rate at the 5% level, the primary efficacy variable was analyzed using a two-sided superiority test at the type I error rate of 5%. If significant, the key secondary variable was to be analyzed using a two-sided superiority test at α=0·05. Other variables were not adjusted for multiplicity. Section 7. Sample size calculations In a blinded interim data review of a similar study, a rate of 0·66 exacerbations per year was observed in the overall treatment groups and, after seasonal variability was taken into account, a rate of 0·6 exacerbations per year was assumed in the glycopyrronium arm. Based on clinical considerations and observations in the OPTIMAL study,2 a 20% reduction in the rate of COPD exacerbations was assumed to be the treatment effect, and as a result a rate of 0·48 exacerbations per year was assumed for QVA149. A dispersion parameter had to be estimated for the sample size calculations. In the TRISTAN study4 the dispersion parameter was estimated as 0·46 with 95% confidence interval of 0·34, 0·60. An enriched subpopulation (defined as patients with at least one COPD exacerbation in the previous year) from indacaterol studies of 52 weeks3 and 6 months4 showed a dispersion parameter estimate of 0·329 with 95% confidence intervals of 0·098, 1·11, whereas in the overall population of these two studies, which included moderate to severe patients, the dispersion parameter was estimated to be 1·10 with 95% confidence intervals 0·913, 1·33. Furthermore, enriched and severe subpopulations in these two studies showed a dispersion parameter estimate of 0·221 with 95% confidence intervals 0·037, 1·33. The patient population of the SPARK study was composed of enriched and severe-to-very severe patients only. Therefore, taking into account the uncertainties surrounding the estimate from enriched and severe subpopulations of the two indacaterol studies, a dispersion parameter estimate of 0·625 was assumed in the sample size calculations of the present study. The exacerbation rate for the open-label tiotropium arm was assumed to be similar with glycopyrronium. In two 52-week indacaterol studies3,5 the loss of information due to dropout was around 13%. Loss of information was defined as the per cent of total of exposure treatment days reduced from the total exposure due to dropouts relative to the planned total exposure. To account for possible loss of information, the number of patient-years was increased by 15%. Using all the assumptions described above and using a 5% significance level (two-sided), the total number of patient-years was calculated in the three treatment groups as shown below. 10 Power Estimates for the Primary Variable: Average Exposure (months) Number of Patients Total Exposure in Patient-Years Adjusted for 15% Loss of Information Power 15 2198 2748 2335 80% 16 2198 2931 2491 82% 17 2198 3112 2647 84% 18 2198 3297 2802 87% Assuming an average exposure treatment per patient of approximately 17 months, a total of 2,198 patients randomized to the three treatment arms would give a power of 84%. 11 Section 8. Countries involved in the studies and numbers of patients enrolled Country (number of patients screened/number of patients randomized): Argentina (447/302); Austria (61/45); Canada (54/28); Columbia (123/55); Czech Republic (230/166); Denmark (60/31); Estonia (47/26); Finland (33/16); France (17/8); Germany (376/243); Great Britain (149/52); Greece (72/49); Hungary (174/131); India (258/147); Ireland (28/7); Israel (194/117); Italy (73/30); Mexico (79/39); Netherlands (108/65); Peru (52/31); Philippines 189/106); Poland (91/50); Puerto Rico (4/0); Russian Federation (215/145); Slovakia (103/83); South Africa (54/22); Spain (16/7); USA (558/223). 12 Section 9. History of cardiovascular disease and presence of cardiovascular risk factors at baseline QVA149 N=729 Glycopyrronium N=740 Tiotropium N=737 Myocardial Infarction 35 (4·8) 27 (3·6) 32 (4·3) Stroke 17 (2·3) 23 (3·1) 22 (3·0) Peripheral arterial disease 22 (3·0) 41 (5·5) 29 (3·9) Coronary artery bypass graft 10 (1·4) 4 (0·5) 6 (0·8) Percutaneous coronary revascularization 15 (2·1) 12 (1·6) 11 (1·5) History of cardiovascular disease 10 (1·4) 13 (1·8) 10 (1·4) Hypertension Peripheral arterial revascularization 337 (46·2) 352 (47·6) 353 (47·9) Hyperlipidemia 187 (25·7) 184 (24·9) 193 (26·2) 68 (9·3) 76 (10·3) 68 (9·2) Type 1 0 0 0 Type 2 68 (9·3) 76 (10·3) 68 (9·2) Diabetes mellitus Number of cardiovascular risk factors 0 92 (12·6) 84 (11·4) 78 (10·6) 1 232 (31·8) 225 (30·4) 222 (30·1) 2 186 (25·5) 202 (27·3) 219 (29·7) 3 136 (18·7) 138 (18·6) 114 (15·5) ≥4 83 (11·4) 91 (12·3) 104 (14·1) Data are n (%). Cardiovascular risk factors are: age ≥65 years, current smoker at baseline, history of cardiocerebrovascular disease (at least one of those listed under history of cardiovascular disease), hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index >30 kg/m2 at baseline. 13 Section 10. Baseline characteristics of the patients who opted in and out of continuing in the study extension period Age (years) Male, % Continuers N=1030 Non-continuers N=1176 63·1 (7·80) 63·5 (8·08) 76·1 73·7 79·4/15·6/0·7/4·3 84·5/8·4/0·8/6·3 Race, % Caucasian/Asian/Black/other Severity of airflow limitation, % Severe (GOLD 3)*/very severe (GOLD 4) Duration of COPD (years) 81·2/18·8 77·3/22·7 7·1 (5·56) 7·2 (5·48) 1·7/79·4/18·8 1·2/73·4/25·4 Number of COPD exacerbations in previous year, % 0/1/≥2 ICS use at baseline, % 75·5 75·2 Ex-/current smoker, % 63·0/37·0 61·8/38·2 Estimated pack-years 45 (25·4) 45 (23·6) Pre-bronchodilator FEV1 (L) 0·91 (0·299) 0·90 (0·296) Post-bronchodilator FEV1 (L) 1·05 (0·296) 1·03 (0·298) Post-bronchodilator FEV1 (% predicted) 37·6 (7·93) 36·9 (8·22) Pre-/post-bronchodilator FEV1 reversibility (%) 18·9 (19·45) 17·8 (19·25) FEV1/FVC (%) post-bronchodilator 39·5 (9·44) 39·1 (9·47) *Includes one patient in each group with moderate (GOLD 2) airflow limitation. 14 Section 11. Analysis of the number of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations per patient during the study treatment period n (%) QVA149 N=729 Glycopyrronium N=739 Tiotropium N=737 None 310 (42·5) 313 (42·4) 335 (45·5) 1 202 (27·7) 192 (26·0) 186 (25·2) 2 120 (16·5) 108 (14·6) 88 (11·9) 3 53 (7·3) 61 (8·3) 55 (7·5) 4 44 (6·0) 65 (8·8) 73 (9·9) 1·11 (1·345) 1.22 (1·483) 1·22 (1·659) 1 (0–8) 1 (0–9) 1 (0–11) Mean (SD) Median (range) Total number of exacerbations Total number of treatment-years Rate of exacerbations per year 812 900 898 866·93 840·98 848·78 0·94 1·07 1·06 Model-based estimated rate (95% CI) 0·84 (0·75, 0·94) 0·95 (0·85, 1·06) 0·93 (0·83, 1·04) Treatment comparisons QVA149 vs glycopyrronium QVA149 vs tiotropium Glycopyrronium vs tiotropium Ratio of rates (95% CI) 0·88 (0·77, 0·99)* 0·90 (0·79, 1·02) 1·03 (0·91, 1·16) 0·038 0·096 0·68 p value Ratio of rates <1 favors the treatment group in the numerator of the ratio. 15 Section 12. Analysis of moderate to severe COPD exacerbations by ICS use No ICS use ICS use Treatment Annualized Rate (95% CI) Comparison Rate Ratio 95% CI p value QVA149 (n=183) 0.77 (0.63, 0.95) QVA149 vs glycopyrronium 1.04 (0·78, 1.38) 0·81 QVA149 vs tiotropium 0·99 (0·75, 1.30) 0·93 Glycopyrronium vs tiotropium 0·95 (0·72, 1·27) 0·74 QVA149 vs glycopyrronium 0·84 (0·73, 0·97) 0·015 QVA149 vs tiotropium 0·88 (0·76, 1·01) 0·067 Glycopyrronium vs tiotropium 1·04 (0·91, 1·20) 0·55 Glycopyrronium (n=183) 0.75 (0.60, 0.93) Tiotropium (n=178) 0.78 (0.64, 0.96) QVA149 (n=546) 0·96 (0·86, 1.08) Glycopyrronium (n=556) 1.14 (1.03, 1.28) Tiotropium (n=559) 1.10 (0·98, 1·23) 16 Section 13. Sensitivity analyses of primary variable (a) Analysis of rate of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations over the treatment period (adjudicated events) (full analysis set) Treatment QVA149 (N=736) Annualized Rate (95% CI) Comparison Rate Ratio (95% CI) p-value 0·83 (0·738, 0·927) QVA149 vs glycopyrronium 0·87 (0·769, 0·988) 0·031 QVA149 vs tiotropium 0·90 (0·791, 1·016) 0·086 Glycopyrronium vs tiotropium 1·03 (0·909, 1·162) 0·66 Glycopyrronium (N=739) 0·95 (0·850, 1·060) Tiotropium (N=739) 0·92 (0·827, 1·031) All analyses in this section used a negative binomial regression model: log (exacerbation rate) = treatment + smoking status + baseline ICS use (yes/no) + baseline total symptom score + history of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations + FEV1 reversibility components + country. (b) Analysis of rate of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations over the treatment period (adjudicated events), with imputation (modified full analysis set) Treatment Annualized Rate Comparison (95% CI) QVA149 (N=729) 0·86 (0·763, 0·959) Glycopyrronium (N=739) 0·97 (0·870, 1·085) Tiotropium (N=737) 0·94 (0·843, 1·051) Rate Ratio p-value (95% CI) QVA149 vs glycopyrronium 0·88 (0·777, 0·998) 0·047 QVA149 vs tiotropium 0·91 (0·802, 1·030) 0·14 Glycopyrronium vs tiotropium 1·03 (0·913, 1·167) 0·62 For prematurely discontinued patients the number of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations was increased by the number of events that occurred within 14 days after the last dose. (c) Analysis of rate of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations over the treatment period (adjudicated events) (per-protocol set) Treatment QVA149 (N=666) Annualized Rate (95% CI) Comparison Rate Ratio (95% CI) p-value 0·88 (0·781, 0·988) QVA149 vs glycopyrronium 0·89 (0·785, 1·014) 0·080 QVA149 vs tiotropium 0·91 (0·798, 1·030) 0·13 Glycopyrronium vs tiotropium 1·02 (0·896, 1·151) 0·81 Glycopyrronium (N=687) 0·98 (0·878, 1·103) Tiotropium (N=685) 0·97 (0·866, 1·084) 17 Section 14. Cox regression analysis of time to first severe COPD exacerbation Treatment QVA149 (N=729) Glycopyrronium (n=739) Tiotropium (n=737) Number of patients with severe exacerbation 95 108 Comparison Hazard Ratio (95% CI) p-value QVA149 vs glycopyrronium QVA149 vs tiotropium Glycopyrronium vs tiotropium 0·79 (0·60, 1·05) 1·13 (0·83, 1·53) 1·43 (1·07, 1·92) 0·10 0·43 0·017 81 Cox regression model: log (hazard ratio) = treatment + smoking status + baseline ICS use + baselines total symptom score + history of COPD exacerbations + FEV1 reversibility components and country. Hazard ratio of <1 favors the treatment group in the numerator ratio. 18 Section 15. (a) Annualized exacerbation rates by severity of exacerbation, and (b) annualized rates of moderate/severe exacerbations by treatment requirements 19 Section 16. Post-hoc sensitivity analysis of the primary efficacy variable (a) Annualized event rate Treatment group The first hypothesis generating sensitivity analysis QVA NVA Tio 1.13 1.23 1.23 The 2nd hypothesis generating sensitivity analysis 0.79 0.91 0.88 (b) Rate ratio, 95% C.I and p value Treatment group The first hypothesis generating sensitivity analysis The 2nd hypothesis generating sensitivity analysis Rate ratio 95% C.I. p-value Rate ratio 95% C.I. QVA vs NVA 0.92 (0.93, 1.01) 0.082 0.87 (0.77, 0.99) 0.033 QVA vs Tio 0.92 (0.84, 1.01) 0.100 0.90 (0.79, 1.02) 0.092 NVA vs Tio 1.00 (0.91, 1.10) 0.921 1.03 (0.91, 1.17) 0.646 p-value 20 Section 17. Analysis of odds ratios associated with percentages of patients achieving the MCID in SGRQ total score. Analysis of the proportion of patients with clinically important improvement in the SGRQ total score (≥4 unit change from baseline). Data are odds ratios (95% confidence intervals). QVA149 vs glycopyrronium QVA149 vs tiotropium Glycopyrronium vs tiotropium Odds ratios (95% CIs) p value Odds ratios (95% CIs) p value Odds ratios (95% CIs) p value Week 12 1·39 (1·10, 1·74) 0·0053 1·45 (1·15, 1·82) 0·0016 1·04 (0·83, 1·31) 0·71 Week 26 1·30 (1·03, 1·64) 0·026 1·28 (1·01, 1·62) 0·040 0·98 (0·78, 1·24) 0·88 Week 38 1·45 (1·15, 1·85) 0·0022 1·39 (1·09, 1·76) 0·0074 0·95 (0·75, 1·21) 0·69 Week 52 1·62 (1·27, 2·08) 0·00013 1·48 (1·16, 1·89) 0·0017 0·91 (0·71, 1·17) 0·47 Week 64 1·28 (0·99, 1·66) 0·055 1·29 (1·00, 1·66) 0·051 1·00 (0·78, 1·30) 0·99 An odds ratio >1 favors the treatment in the numerator of the ratio (= higher chance of a clinically important improvement). 21 Section 18. SGRQ component scores SGRQ component scores (symptoms, activity, impacts) during study treatment. *QVA149 vs glycopyrronium; †QVA149 vs tiotropium. Differences between QVA149 and glycopyrronium were not statistically significant. Data are least squares means ± standard errors. 22 23 Section 19. Incidence of serious adverse events* (number per 100 patient-years) QVA149 (N=729) Glycopyrronium (N=740) Tiotropium (N=737) Exposure in patient years 866·9 841·6 848·8 Any serious adverse event 48·6 50·9 39·2 Cardiac disorders 3·2 4·5 3·4 Atrial fibrillation 0·8 0·4 0·5 Acute myocardial infarction 0·2 0·5 0·2 Myocardial infarction 0·2 0·4 0·5 Cardiac arrest 0·1 0·5 0·2 Cardiac failure 0·1 0·1 0·5 12·6 13·4 8·7 3·3 Infections and infestations Pneumonia 2·9 3·1 Lower respiratory tract infection 1·8 3·2 1·5 Viral upper respiratory tract infection 0·7 0·6 0·4 Bronchitis 0·5 0·2 0·7 Lobar pneumonia 0·5 0·2 0 Lower respiratory tract infection bacterial Neoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (including cysts and polyps) Lung neoplasm malignant 0·2 0·7 0·2 2·5 2·1 2·6 0·6 0 0·5 Respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders 19·8 22·2 16·6 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 16·3 17·8 13·4 Acute respiratory failure 0·9 0·7 0·1 Dyspnea 0·6 0·2 0·4 Respiratory failure 0·6 0·8 0·8 0 0·6 0·1 Pneumothorax *Occurring in 0·5% or more of any treatment group. Arranged by system organ class and preferred term. 24 Section 20. Incidences of overall mortality and individual causes of death Adjudicated cause of deaths adjusted for exposure by category (n per 100 patient-years) QVA149 N=729 n (%) Glycopyrronium N=740 n (%) Tiotropium N=737 n (%) 866·9 841·6 848·8 2·7 2·6 2·9 0·9 1·3 1·9 Sudden death 0·6 0·7 1·5 Other cardiovascular 0·2 0·2 0 Fatal myocardial infarction 0·1 0·2 0·2 Pump failure 0 0 0 Congestive heart failure 0 0 0 Presumed CV death 0 0 0·1 Fatal stroke 0 0 0 Pulmonary embolism 0 0·1 0 CV procedural 0 0 0 Respiratory cause 1·0 1·0 0·5 COPD exacerbation without pneumonia 0·6 0·1 0·2 COPD exacerbation with pneumonia 0·3 0·5 0·2 Pneumonia 0·1 0·2 0 0 0·1 0 0·3 0·1 0·5 Lung 0·2 0·1 0·4 Other 0·1 0 0·1 0·3 0·1 0·1 Gastrointestinal 0·1 0·1 0 Suicide 0·1 0 0 Infection 0·1 0 0 Malignancy 0 0 0 Pulmonary 0 0 0 Hepatobiliary 0 0 0 Accidental 0 0 0 Renal 0 0 0 Procedural 0 0 0 Diabetes 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0·1 Unknown Exposure in patient years Death from any cause Cardiovascular cause Other Cancer cause Other non- Cardiovascular causes 0 0·1 0 Insufficient information 0 0·1 0 Unable to classify 0 0 0 Preferred terms are sorted in descending order of frequency in the QVA149 treatment group. The classifications were determined by the independent adjudication committee. Patients who died between the first treatment day and 30 days of the last treatment are included. Duration of exposure = date of last dose − date of first dose + 1. 25 Section 21. Incidence of adjudicated CCV adverse events Adjudicated CCV adverse events (MACE and atrial fibrillation/flutter events) (% of patients) QVA149 N=729 Glycopyrronium N=740 Tiotropium N=737 Patients with ≥1 serious CCV event 3·7 3·4 3·5 Major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) 1·4 2·0 1·1 0·5 0·8 0·3 Unstable angina 0 0 0 Non-fatal stroke 0·5 0·5 0·3 Heart failure requiring hospitalization 0·3 0·4 0·4 Coronary revascularization (CABG or PCI) 0·3 0·5 0·3 Non-major serious adverse cardiovascular event (nonMACE) 2·6 1·9 2·7 New onset 1·2 0·8 1·1 Recurrent/persistent 0·8 2·0 2·2 New onset 1·1 0·7 0·9 Recurrent/persistent 0·8 1·9 2·2 New onset 0·1 0·1 0·1 Recurrent/persistent 0·0 0·3 0·0 Non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) Any atrial fibrillation/flutter Atrial fibrillation Atrial flutter 26 References 1. Suissa S. Statistical treatment of exacerbations in therapeutic trials of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2006; 173: 842−6. 2. 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