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Transcript
Megatsunami Megatsunami is an informal term to describe a tsunami that has initial wave heights much larger than normal tsunamis. • Origin: a large scale landslide, collision, or volcanic eruption event as opposed to raising or lowering of the sea floor due to tectonic activity. • Prehistoric: asteroid impacts; Mt. Etna volcanic landslide; East Molokai Volcano collapse; etc. • Modern: 1792, Mount Unzen, Japan (100m); 1963, Vajont Dam, Italy (250m); 1980, Mount St. Helens-Spirit Lake, WA (260m). • 1958, Lituya Bay Megatsunami: a huge landslide (~40 million cubic meters of rock and ice) triggered by an 8.3 magnitude earthquake in Alaska created waves with a run-up up to ~525m high on the Lituya Bay, largest known in modern times. Future concerns: potential massive landslide on a volcanic ocean island (ex. Cape Verde, Canary Islands, Hawaii) Earthquake Prediction • Short-range predictions: Goal: provide a warning of the location and magnitude of a large earthquake within a narrow time frame (weeks/days). Focus on precursors – such as measuring uplift, subsidence, and strain in the rocks. Currently, no reliable method exists for making short-range earthquake predictions. Earthquake Prediction • Long-term forecasts: For a given location, provide the probability of a certain magnitude earthquake occurring on a time scale of 30 to 100 years, or more. • Intermediate-term middle-range forecasts: Specify Regions of Increased Probability within the time frames of years to months (TIP=time of increased probability). Important to develop… …but success is questioned…