Download horizon 2013 - KNOWLEDGEshare

HORIZON 2030
Predicting The Demands Of Tomorrow
Presentation summary
Dr James Bellini
KNOWLEDGEshare.com
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Facts of the future
By 2050 world food demand will rise by 70 per cent –
but globally the average farm is smaller than one hectare
Between now and 2030 there’ll be more scientific
advances than in the whole of the 20th century
Up to 2035 the global infrastructure spend will exceed $50 trillion
To build a post-carbon world we need to replace each year the
equivalent of a cubic mile of oil
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The Great Transition
The coming years will see a fundamental shift in global
economic realities from ‘old’ to ‘emerging’ regions –
the biggest change since the First Industrial Revolution
This shift will bring a worldwide urban explosion,
a new two billion-plus middle class, a changing map
of global trade, powerful new currencies and the biggest
infrastructure boom in generations
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The Great Transition
Coupled with connective technologies, this Great
Transition will transform our world – how and where we
live, work, invest, innovate, consume, travel, socialise...
It will change the geography of global commerce...
and have major impact on the world’s food/beverage
sector
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Global Shift:
BRICs And Beyond
Britain took 150 years
to double its GDP per
head. China took 12.
 25 per cent of world land area
 40 per cent of world population
 Combined GDP of $20 trillion
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E-World 2025:
Future facts
Annual e-world consumption reaches
$30 trillion
60 % of a billion $20,000/year households
will be in e-world
That’s the biggest growth opportunity in
the history of business
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Scenario 2030:
The African Decade?
TRADITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MODEL
Transitions
Stabilization
Path 3
Path 2
Path 1
Acceleration
Africa Regional
Strategy Blueprint on Africa’s
Future and World Bank
Take-off
Pre-development
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“Africa could be on the brink of an
economic take-off like China was
30 years ago”
Time
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Japan
2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6
Portugal
Germany
France
Belgium
Italy
Netherlands
2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2
Denmark
Canada
New zealand
Austria
2
OECD
3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
US
Switzerland
Poland
Iceland
Sweden
Spain
UK
Ireland
3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5
Finland
Norway
Greece
Mexico
4.5 4.1
Australia
4
Czeck Republic
5.0 4.9 4.7
South Korea
Hungary
6
Slovakia
8
Luxembourg
Turkey
Turkey:
Winning formula?
AVERAGE ANNUAL GDP GROWTH 2011-2017 [OECD FORECAST]
6.7
1.4 1.2
0
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Europe In The 2020s
SEVEN KEY INITIATIVES
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
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‘Innovation union’
‘Youth on the move’
Digital agenda
Resource efficient Europe
Industrial agenda for globalised world
Agenda for skills and jobs
European platform against poverty
Europe 2020 Strategy
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Poland:
Europe’s rising star
IMF proiections
and Poland impress observers with their
“ Turkey
economic performance following a global financial
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
crisis that left regional peers damaged.
Both rely on youthful populations, low debt levels
and expanding middle classes to become the
‘New Tigers’
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010 MarketWatch
2012
2014
Poland GDP growth YoY % change
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Developed economies GDP growth YoY % change
”
2016
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Future urban giants
Mega-cities
World’s
largest
2015
30 cities in 2020 [by GDP (PPP)]
Beijing
Moscow
Los
San
NewYork
Angeles
Chicago Atlanta Boston
Francisco
New
York
4,000,000
12,000,000
Philadelphia
12,900,000
16,500,000
Los Angeles
Washington
DC
14,200,000
17,600,000
Dallas Houston
Mexico City
London
Cairo
2,100,000
10,500,000
14,400,000
Miami
1950
Sao Paolo
2000 (estimate)
2015 (projection)
Population growth, 1950-2000
>100 million
50-100 million
10-50 million
<10 million
2,300,000
17,300,000
19,000,000
Sao Paolo
Buenos Aires
Buenos
Aires
5,250,000
Istanbul 11,000,000
20,600,000
Delhi
1,700,000
Tokyo
11,700,000
6,200,000
Tianjin
Seoul
400,000 19,400,000
27,700,000
10,000,000
Tokyo
Beijing
28,700,000
19,000,000
Osaka
Guangzhou
Shanghai
Shanghai
Dhaka
1,100,000
Paris
3,500,000
Mexico City
17,600,000
19,000,000
Population growth
of largest cities
Karachi
Shenzhen
Mumbai
Lagos
Mumbai
1,000,000
12,000,000
24,400,000
2,800,000
16,900,000
27,400,000
Calcutta
4,300,000
Hong Kong
13,900,000
4,450,000
23,400,000
12,500,000
Singapore
17,300,000
Jakarta
2,800,000
9,500,000
21,200,000
12,200,000
13,900,000
Source: The National Geographic Society and United Nations
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Rise of ‘Hybrid’ manufacturing
Creates global value chains
Takes account of all variables in manufacturing process
Production functions split between high-cost and low-cost economies
Must understand contributions different managers/countries can make
Success demands ‘open attitudes’ and ‘interest in learning from others’
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Miniaturization and cost
reduction
Digital markets
1 Mainframe
4 Smart
Between now and 2020 the volume
of data
things
most companies manage will multiply
thirty five-fold.
3 Mobiles/
smart cards
“Soon
cars
will
routinely have 200 million lines of
2 PCs
code and 70 processors – that’s almost as much as
the new Airbus 380”
Forrester
The era of Big Data has arrived, increasing the
world's store of electronic information by about five
trillion bits per second
Time
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Digital behaviour:
Key to the future
To capitalise on the Big Data tools making
their way into HR technology, you’ll need
to start thinking much more strategically
about your organization’s talent data
“A retailer using big data to the full has the
potential to increase its operating margin
by more than 60 percent”
McKinsey Global Institute
“We develop visions from your data”
Michael Feindt of Blue Yonder
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2030:
Big Picture challenges
Address global shift
SOLVE WATER SCARCITY
Feed the billions
Drive post-carbon agenda
Create sustainable business
Manage urban explosion
Care for ageing citizens
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Tackle jobs and talent crisis
Build a smarter world
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Thank you!
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