Download Weekly FX Insight - Citibank Hong Kong

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

Inflation wikipedia , lookup

Financial economics wikipedia , lookup

Modified Dietz method wikipedia , lookup

Stock selection criterion wikipedia , lookup

Interest rate wikipedia , lookup

Purchasing power parity wikipedia , lookup

Transcript
Citibank Wealth Management
Weekly FX Insight
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Weekly FX Insight
Feb 9, 2015
with data as of Feb 6, 2015
Market Review & Focus
FX Analysis
FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
P. 1 - 4
P. 5 - 9
P. 10 - 13
© 2013 Citibank
Citibank and Arc Design is a registered service mark of Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup Inc.
Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited
Weekly FX Recap
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Major Currencies Weekly Performance
LAST WEEK PERFORMANCE
CCY
USD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CHF
GOLD
52 week
high
52 week
low
1 year %
change
17.05%
Weekly changes versus US dollar
USD INDEX
Close Price
Day High
Day Low
94.70
94.88
93.25
95.53
78.91
1.1316
1.1534
1.1279
1.3993
1.1098 -16.73%
119.12
119.22
116.66
121.85
100.82 -14.28%
GBP
1.5243
1.5352
1.4989
1.7192
1.4952
-6.61%
CAD
1.2527
1.2773
1.2352
1.2799
1.0621 -11.63%
AUD
0.7796
0.7876
0.7626
0.9505
0.7626 -12.98%
NZD
0.7363
0.7449
0.7177
0.8836
0.7177 -10.73%
CHF
0.9268
0.9347
0.9176
1.0240
0.7406
1233.92
1285.97
1228.47
1392.22 1131.24 -1.93%
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
-2.78%
-0.11%
EUR
0.22%
JPY
GOLD
-1.39%
1.22%
1.61%
0.44%
1.40%
-0.72%
-3.88%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
0.00%
2.00%
USD
The USD recovered as U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at 257,000 in Jan and average hourly earnings rose
0.5%, both better than expected. The dollar index edged lower 0.1% to close at 94.70. USD outlook: The dollar
index may test higher to 95.86.
AUD
Although the RBA cut the interest rate by 25bps to 2.25%, the monetary policy statement showed inflation
remained inside the target range. The AUD rose from 0.7626 to 0.78 on fading rate cut expectations. AUD/USD
rose 0.4% to close at 0.7796 last week. AUD outlook: AUD/USD may consolidate between 0.7626-0.7977.
NZD
The NZD surged from 0.7177 to 0.74 as the milk powder auction price surged 9% and Q4-2014 employment grew
by 1.2%, better than expected. NZD/USD rose 1.4% to close at 0.7363 last week. NZD outlook: NZD/USD may
range trade between 0.7177-0.7609.
Gold
The gold price dropped as fund flowed out of safe-haven assets as global markets rose amid improving market
sentiment last week. Spot gold/USD dropped 3.9% to close at $1233.92/ounce last week. Gold price outlook: Spot
gold/USD may rise to $1345 gradually
1
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Weekly FX Strategies
1.
Bearish - CAD
• The CAD may be undermined in the medium and long term on decreasing Canada’s
export competitiveness.
• USD/CAD may rise to 1.3065 (5.93) after consolidation between 1.2285-1.2799 (6.356.06)
2.
Bullish – GBP
• The GBP may outperform due to strong U.K. fundamentals.
• GBP/USD may test higher to 1.5410 (11.95).
3.
Neutral – AUD
• The AUD may be restrained as the RBA may cut rates in April on expectation of weak
job data released this week.
• AUD/USD may range trade between 0.7626-0.7977(5.91-6.18).
2
Weekly FX Focus 1:
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
The USD may be underpinned amid U.S. strong job data
• Non-farm Payrolls came in at 257K, increasing the average
level over the last 12 months by 1400 to 267K. In addition,
average hourly wage reversed the decline in Dec 2014,
reflecting wage is rising gradually, which may underpin the
USD.
Chart 1: Non-farm Payrolls – 3-month Average (million)
Red line: 1 Million
• Strong job growth: Nov and Dec 2014 figures were both
revised up by 147K and the average over the last three months
reached 1 million (Chart 1), which was a rare case and
reflected strong job growth. It might drive consumer spending
up significantly in Q4 last year.
• Average wage growth rebounded: Average hourly wage
dropped 0.2% in Dec 2014, fueling concerns that it might
become a barrier of rate hikes by the Fed. However, average
hourly wage rose 0.5% in Jan, a record high, driving the yearly
growth up from 1.7% to 2.2%.
• Consumer Spending may be supported: U.S. real household
income (ex-inflation) may grow 1%, reflecting U.S. job grew
257K, weekly working hours rose to 34.6 hours and average
wage rose 0.5% while gasoline prices plunged. Rising
purchasing power may support U.S. consumer spending in the
coming months.
Source: Citi, as of February 6, 2015
Chart 2: Dollar Index – Weekly Chart
97.95 (6-12 month forecast)
• Bullish on the USD (Chart 2): The dollar index may rise to
97.95 gradually for the coming 6-12 months after breaching a
resistance level at 92.63.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
3
Weekly FX Focus 2:
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
The CAD may be undermined amid decreasing export competitiveness
• Recent CAD strength does not suggest an improved
outlook in Canada. The negative impact from weaker oil
prices has yet to fully appear. Canadian data have just
begun to weaken. The CAD may resume downtrend upon
consolidation.
Chart 3: Citi Economic Surprise Index - Canada
• Economic data missed expectations: Oil prices dropped
about 50% last year. The negative impact from weaker oil
prices has yet to fully appear. According to Citi Economic
Surprise Index (Chart 3), Canadian index has just started to
drop, reflecting worse-than-expected economic data began to
increase and may further deteriorate.
• Decreasing export competitiveness: The U.S. is the largest
trading partner of Canada. Canada has been losing market
share in the U.S. in recent years. Since 2004, Canadian non-oil
export volumes are virtually flat while US import volumes have
essentially doubled (Chart 4).
Source: Citi, as of February 6, 2015
Chart 2: Canada has been losing market share in the U.S.
U.S. Non-Oil Import Index
• The CAD may need to depreciate: Canadian exports are
lagging growth of the US market. This stagnation of Canadian
exports makes us think that CAD depreciation will not generate
the expected impact on activity until CAD falls a lot further.
• Bearish on the CAD: We expect USD/CAD may rise to 1.30 or
above after consolidation in the medium and long term.
Canada’s Non-Oil Export Index
Source: Citi, as of February 6, 2015
4
USD/CAD
Please note and carefully read the
USD/CAD may test higher to 1.2799-1.3065 (6.06-5.93)
Important Disclosure on the last page
upon consolidation
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7530 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
1.2527
(6.19)
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
1.2773
(6.07)
1.2352
(6.28)
1.1956
(6.48)
1.2202
(6.35)
1.2799
(6.06)
1.3065
(5.93)
1.19
(6.52)
1.25
(6.20)
Upcoming Economic Data
Fed 9: Housing Starts
Market Recap:

The CAD recovered as oil prices rebounded
amid optimism that oil supply may decrease
as several oil companies said to cut capital
investment significantly and rig counts
decreased.
1.3065 (2009 top)
1.2202 (fibo 0.764)
CAD Outlook:

Recent decreases in rig counts concentrated
on the category with lower oil production
capacity. It may not be able to reverse the
over-supply situation. Oil prices may remain
weak in the medium and long term.

Falling oil prices may seriously affect
Canada's trade income and inflation, which
triggered the BoC to cut the interest rate
25bps.

We expect the low interest rate policy may
remain until Q3 2016 while the Fed may hike
rates this year due to strong U.S. economy.
The divergence of monetary policy may
undermine the CAD.
1.2799 (Jan top)
1.1956 (10MA)
Technical Analysis:

USD/CAD may test higher to 1.2799-1.3065
(6.06-5.93) upon consolidation.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
5
GBP/USD
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
GBP/USD may test higher to 1.5410 (11.95)
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7530 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
1.5243
(11.82)
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
1.5352
(11.90)
1.4989
(11.62)
1.4814
(11.49)
1.4952
(11.59)
1.5410
(11.95)
1.5808
(12.26)
1.53
(11.86)
1.47
(11.40)
Upcoming Economic Data
Feb 10: Manufacturing
Production
Feb 12: BoE Inflation Report
Market Recap:

The GBP was supported as U.K.
manufacturing and services PMIs came in at
53.0 and 57.2 in Jan, better than expectations
of 53.0 and 57.2.
GBP Outlook:

Strong PMIs reflected low oil prices and rising
wage are supporting U.K. economy.

Markets focus on the inflation report released
on Thursday. The BoE may remain bullish on
the U.K. economy and may revise down its
unemployment forecasts, which may support
the GBP.

Although dropping oil prices may trigger the
BoE to downgrade its short-term inflation
forecasts, it may not affect medium-term
inflation forecasts. The BoE may even
upgrade medium-term inflation forecasts amid
strong jobs market and low interest rates.
1.5410 (55MA)
1.5808 (fibo 0.382)
1.4952 (Jan low)
Technical Analysis:

GBP/USD may test higher to 1.5410 (11.95)
gradually, with support at 1.4952(11.59).
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
6
AUD/USD
Please note and carefully read the
AUD/USD may range trade between 0.7626Important Disclosure on the last page
0.7977(5.91-6.18)
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7530 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
0.7796
(6.04)
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
0.7876
(6.11)
0.7626
(5.91)
0.7268
(5.63)
0.7626
(5.91)
0.7977
(6.18)
0.8295
(6.43)
0.82
(6.36)
0.72
(5.58)
Upcoming Economic Data
Feb 12: Employment Change
Feb 12: Unemployment Rate
Market Recap:

Although the AUD once dropped to 0.7626 as
the RBA cut the interest rate by 25bps, the
monetary policy statement was less dovish
than expected, triggering the AUD to rebound
from lows.
AUD Outlook:

Citi analysts expect dropping commodity
prices may reduce trade profitability, which
may trigger the RBA to cut the interest rate by
25bps in Apr. It may undermine the AUD.

Since Australian interest rate is still relatively
attractive and foreign funds flow into equity
markets , which may trigger the RBA to push
down the AUD by rate cuts in order to boost
the economy.

Pay attention to job data released on
Thursday. If the unemployment rate rises
significantly, the AUD may cut rates earlier in
Mar, which may pressure the AUD.
0.8295 (Jan top)
0.7977 (20MA)
0.7626 (Last week low)
Technical Analysis:

AUD/USD may range
0.7626-0.7977(5.91-6.18).
trade
between
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
7
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
NZD/USD
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7530 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
0.7363
(5.71)
0.7449
(5.78)
0.7177
(5.56)
0.6948
(5.39)
0.7177
(5.56)
0.7609
(5.90)
0.7765
(6.02)
0.77
(5.97)
0.67
(5.19)
The NZD may be undermined as cooling inflation may defer
rate hikes by the RBNZ to Q2 2016
Weekly recap: Although NZ unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to
5.7% in Dec, the NZD rose last week as employment grew 3.5%
YoY and milk auction prices surged.
Outlook analysis: The NZD may be supported at lows amid strong
job data and as RBNZ governor Wheeler said medium-term core
inflation may remain at the target level, which cooled rate cut
expectations. However, the NZD may be restrained as the RBNZ
may defer rate hikes to Q2 2016.
Technical analysis: NZD/USD may consolidate inside 0.71770.7609 (5.56-5.90) since the RSI is turning up from the oversold
region.
NZD/USD – Daily Chart
0.7765 (100MA)
0.7609 (Last
Dec low)
0.7177 (Last week low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
EUR/USD
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
1.1316
(8.77)
1.1534
(8.94)
1.1279
(8.74)
1.0765
(8.35)
1.1098
(8.60)
1.1534
(8.94)
1.1640
(9.02)
1.15
(8.92)
1.10
(8.53)
The EUR may be undermined as the ECB may need to expand
QE in the medium and long term
Weekly recap: The EUR paired gains as the ECB no longer
accepted Greek bonds as collateral, although the EUR once rose
due to Greek debt swap plan.
Outlook analysis: In the medium term, although the ECB
implemented 1.1 trillion euros worth of bond purchase program, the
scale is not large enough to support the inflation. Thus, the ECB
may need to expand QE, which may undermine the EUR.
Increasing Greek default risks may also pressure the EUR.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD may test lower to 1.1098 (8.60)
upon consolidation in the short term since the RSI rebounded from
lows. A breach may send the pair further down to 1.0765 (8.35).
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
1.1470-1534 (20MA &
last week top)
1.1098 (Jan low)
1.0765 (Sep 30, 2009
low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
8
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
USD/JPY
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7530 exchange rate for reference
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
119.12 119.22 116.66 113.52 115.57 120.83 121.85
116
130
(65.09) (65.03) (66.46) (68.30) (67.08) (64.16) (63.63) (66.84) (59.64)
The JPY may drop in the medium and long term as the BoJ
may expand QE in Jul
Weekly recap: The JPY was pressure on strong USD as U.S. NFP
grew 257K in Jan, better than expectations of 228K and average
hourly wage even grew 2.2% YoY.
Outlook analysis: Although falling oil prices benefit the economy,
inflation downside risks also increase, which may force the BoJ to
expand QE in Jul. Moreover, funds may flow out of Japan as GPIF
increases holdings of foreign assets, which may undermine the JPY
in the medium and long term.
Technical analysis: USD/JPY may range trade between 115.57120.83 (67.08-64.16), with upside bias.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
120.83 (Dec, 23 2014 top)
121.85 (Last
Dec top)
115.57 (Last Dec low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
USD/CNY
Last Price
Last wk High
Last wk Low
0-3M
6-12M
6.2446
6.2604
6.2373
6.22
6.30
The CNY may be underpinned as falling oil prices may
increase China's trade income
Weekly recap: The CNY rebounded from lows last week as the
PBoC suddenly cut the RRR 50 bps, fueling optimism that the RRR
cut may underpin the investment sentiment.
Outlook analysis: Citi analysts expect the CNY may be restrained
as the PBoC may cut the RRR 2-3 times this year and may cut the
interest rate 25bps this month. Although continuous falling oil prices
may increase China's trade income, which may underpin the CNY,
the government may push down the CNY as a policy tool due to
low inflation and high corporate debts.
USD/CNY – Daily Chart
6.30 (6-12 month forecast)
6.22 (0-3 month
forecast)
Long-term forecast: 6.10
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February 6, 2015
9
Upcoming Economic Figures and Events
The AUD may be undermined amid Australian job data
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
January retail sales
U.S.
Retail sales may remain weak in January due to a drop of 17% in gasoline prices.
In particular, consumers did not spend what they save from dropping gasoline
prices. Citi analysts expect a similar case in Jan.
January job data
Australia
Following strong labour market prints last two months, we expect employment in
Jan could fall 15K and could see the unemployment rate either steady or up
slightly to 6.2%.
December 2014 manufacturing production
New
Zealand
Some manufacturing-related surveys showed manufacturing production growth
may remain strong. Citi analysts expect the figure to grow 0.3% in Q4 last year,
the seventh straight quarterly expansion.
January CPI
China
Lower oil prices, weak domestic demand and base effect may have lowered the
CPI inflation from 1.5%YoY in Dec-14 to 0.8%YoY in Jan, the lowest level since
the global financial crisis. To avoid a tightening of the credit conditions, PBOC will
likely cut benchmark rates by 25bps as early as this month
February 12 (Thur):
Retail sales
Citi forecast
Prior
-0.90%
-0.90%
February 12 (Thur):
Unemployment rate
Citi forecast
Prior
6.2%
6.1%
February 12 (Thur):
Manufacturing Production
Citi forecast
Prior
0.3%
0.7%
February 10 (Tue):
CPI (YoY)
Citi forecast
Prior
0.80%
1.50%
10
Appendix 1:
Citi Interest Rate and FX Forecast for 2015
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Citi FX Outlook Forecast
Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CNY
0-3 month
92.54
1.15
1.53
116
0.83
0.82
0.77
1.19
6.22
Source: Citi, forecast as of Jan 16, 2015
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
JPY
6-12 month
97.95
1.10
1.47
130
0.95
0.72
0.67
1.25
6.30
Forecast
downgraded
Citi FX Interest Rate Forecast
1/30/15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-0.75
2.25
3.50
0.75
2.75
Forecast
upgraded
1Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-1.50
2.25
3.50
0.75
2.50
Rate cut
expectations
2Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-1.50
2.00
3.50
0.75
2.25
3Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-1.50
2.00
3.50
0.75
2.25
Rate hike
expectations
Since weak EUR may be one of the major ECB's objectives and the ECB may implement additional easing, Citi
analysts expect the EUR may consolidate at 1.15 for the coming 0-3 months and may drop to 1.10 in the
medium and long term and parity may be approached in the coming two years.
GBP could be supported in the near term by a still strong economy and possible rate hikes in 2016 Q1. GBP/USD
may stabilize at 1.53 for the coming 0-3 months. But political risk premia may rise further out and U.K. is facing
the serious twin fiscal/ current account deficits, which may undermine the GBP. Thus, Citi analysts expect the
GBP to test lower to 1.47 for the coming 6-12 months.
The AUD may be further undermined due to strong USD, larger-than-expected speed and magnitude of decreases
in commodity prices and further deterioration of terms of trade. We expect the AUD to hover around 0.82 for the
coming 0-3 months and drop to 0.72 for the coming 6-12 months.
Since the RBNZ may defer rate hikes to Q2 2016 and commodity prices keep falling, which may be NZD-negative.
We expect the NZD to hover around 0.77 for the coming 0-3 months and drop to 0.72 for the coming 6-12
months
Since the BoJ may expand QE and GPIF is reallocating its portfolio, Citi analysts expect USD/JPY to test higher
to 130.
11
Appendix 2:
Last week’s Economic Figures
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Time
Importance
Event
Period
Actual
Survey
Prior
Jan
51
51
51
Monday
02/02/2015 17:00
EC
!!
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
02/02/2015 17:30
UK
!!
Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA
Jan
53.0
52.7
52.7
02/02/2015 21:30
US
!!
Personal Income
Dec
0.30%
0.20%
0.30%
02/02/2015 21:30
US
!!
Personal Spending
Dec
-0.30%
-0.20%
0.50%
02/02/2015 23:00
US
!!
ISM Manufacturing
Jan
53.5
54.5
55.1
Tuesday
02/03/2015 08:30
AU
!
Trade Balance
Dec
-436M
-850M
-1016M
02/03/2015 11:30
AU
!!!
RBA Cash Rate Target
Feb
2.25%
2.50%
2.50%
Wednesday
02/04/2015 05:45
NZ
!!
Unemployment Rate
4Q
5.70%
5.30%
5.40%
02/04/2015 21:15
US
!!
ADP Employment Change
Jan
213K
220K
253K
02/04/2015 23:00
CA
!
Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA
Jan
45.4
53.4
55.4
02/04/2015 23:00
US
!
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Jan
56.7
56.4
56.5
Thursday
02/05/2015 08:30
AU
!
Retail Sales MoM
Dec
0.20%
0.30%
0.10%
02/05/2015 20:00
UK
!!
Bank of England Bank Rate
Feb
0.50%
0.50%
0.50%
02/05/2015 21:30
CA
!!
Int'l Merchandise Trade
Dec
-0.65B
-1.10B
-0.34B
02/05/2015 21:30
US
!!
Initial Jobless Claims
Jan
278K
290K
267K
02/05/2015 21:30
US
!
Trade Balance
Dec
-$46.6B
-$38.0B
-$39.0B
02/06/2015 08:30
AU
!!!
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
Feb
02/06/2015 17:30
UK
!!
Trade Balance
Dec
-£2895
-£1700
-£1841
02/06/2015 21:30
CA
!!
Unemployment Rate
Jan
6.60%
6.70%
6.60%
02/06/2015 21:30
CA
!!
Net Change in Employment
Jan
35.4K
5.0K
-4.3K
Friday
02/06/2015 21:30
US
!!!
Unemployment Rate
Jan
5.70%
5.60%
5.60%
02/06/2015 21:30
US
!!!
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Jan
257K
228K
329K
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
12
Appendix 3:
Upcoming Economic Figures (Feb 9, 2015 – Feb 13, 2015)
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Time
Importance
Event
Period
Actual
Survey
Prior
Jan
Feb
Jan
Jan
-----
---5.0K
6.20%
2
2.40%
37.4K
6.10%
Jan
--
184.0K
180.6K
Jan
--
1.00%
1.50%
4Q
--
0.80%
0.80%
Dec
--
-¥470.0B
-¥636.8B
Jan
--
--
57.7
Jan
--
-0.50%
-0.30%
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Dec
----
0.20%
---
-0.10%
0.70%
11%
--
--
-2.00%
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
------
-$2.6B
-0.40%
-0.40%
-98.1
--0.90%
-1.00%
278K
98.1
Australia
02/10/2015 08:30
02/11/2015 07:30
02/12/2015 08:30
02/12/2015 08:30
Tue
Wed
Thur
Thur
!
!
!!
!!
NAB Business Confidence
Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM
Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
Canada
02/09/2015 21:15
Mon
!
Housing Starts
China
02/10/2015 09:30
Tue
!!!
CPI YoY
02/13/2015 18:00
Fri
!!
GDP SA YoY
02/09/2015 07:50
Mon
!
Trade Balance BoP Basis
Europe
Japan
New Zealand
02/12/2015 05:30
Thur
!
BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI
Switzerland
02/10/2015 16:15
Tue
!!
CPI YoY
02/10/2015 17:30
02/10/2015 17:30
02/12/2015 08:01
02/12/2015 18:30
02/13/2015 17:30
Tue
Tue
Thur
Thur
Fri
!!
!!
!!
!!!
!
Industrial Production MoM
Manufacturing Production MoM
RICS House Price Balance
Bank of England Inflation Report
Construction Output SA MoM
02/12/2015 03:00
02/12/2015 21:30
02/12/2015 21:30
02/12/2015 21:30
02/13/2015 23:00
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
Thur
Thur
Thur
Thur
Fri
!!
!!!
!!!
!!
!!
Monthly Budget Statement
Retail Sales Advance MoM
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
Initial Jobless Claims
U. of Mich. Sentiment
U.K.
U.S.
13
Important Disclosure
For any enquiries, please call (852) 2860-0333
This document is based on information provided by Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, and
Citigroup Global Wealth Management. It is provided for your information only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation
for the purchase or sale of any security. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the
objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the
information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. Any decision to
purchase securities mentioned herein should be made based on a review of your particular circumstances with your
financial adviser. Investments referred to in this document are not recommendations of Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited
(“Citibank”) or its affiliates. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Citibank believes
to be reliable, Citi analysts do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. All opinions,
projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change
without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Past performance
is no guarantee of future results. The document is not to be construed as a solicitation or recommendation of investment
advice. Subject to the nature and contents of the document, the investments described herein are subject to fluctuations in
price and/or value and investors may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be
subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. Certain investments contained in the
document may have tax implications for private customers whereby levels and basis of taxation may be subject to change.
Citibank does not provide tax advice and investors should seek advice from a tax adviser. Investment products: (i) are not
insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; (ii) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository
institution (including Citibank); and (iii) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount
invested. Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecasts are a joint venture between Citi’s foreign exchange, global macro and technical
strategy groups and our developed and emerging markets economists. Under normal circumstances, we expect to present
Forecasts on a monthly schedule although we may offer intra month updates if circumstances dictate. Technical Trend: All
views, opinions and estimates derived from CitiFX Technicals (i) may change without notice and (ii) may differ from those
views;, opinions and estimates held or expressed by Citi or other Citi personnel, including Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecast.
Should CitiFX Technicals not cover any major currency pairs, the indication of short-term technical "bullish", "bearish", or
"neutral" trends will be based on the result of analysis with various widely known short-term technical analysis tools,
namely RSI, MACD, fibonacci, stochastics, bollinger bands, and simple moving averages.
14