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Annex VI - Case Study - Mexico
Contents
VI.1. General Description and Basic Economy
VI.2. Nature of Aviation and shipping Industries
VI.2 1 Aviation
VI.2.2 Shipping
VI.3. Import and Export Summary
VI.4. Key Demographics
VI.5. Potential Tourism impacts
VI.6. Planned Port Expansions
VI.7. Modelling results
VI.8. Similar Countries
VI.1.
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General Description and Basic Economy
Mexico is a federal constitutional republic that is comprised of 31 states. It borders
The United States to the north and Guatemala and Belize to the south, and is
flanked by the Gulf of Mexico to the east, and the Pacific Ocean to the west. Mexico
is the fourteenth largest nation in the world by area, covering 761,606 square miles,
and the most populous Spanish speaking country in the world with a population of
just under 115 million.1, 2
The World Bank considers Mexico an upper-middle income country, and it was the
first Latin American country to join the OECD. Per-capita income remains
approximately one third that of the US and its economy is closely tied to its NAFTA
free trade partners, particularly the US, which is the destination for 71% of its
exports.
By purchasing power parity, Mexico’s GDP is the eleventh largest in the world and
grew at 2.2% in real terms between 2001 and 2010. This growth has been relatively
consistently since 1995 other than in 2009, when the economy shrank by more than
6.5%. Wages remain low for many sections of the population, and the economy is
one in which the private sector increasingly dominates. The size of the Mexican
economy is projected to triple by 2020. 2
The country’s geography and proximity to the US has also driven an ongoing drug
war, which has claimed 60,000 lives since 2006. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Tourism is a modest element of the national economy: the country has consistently
hosted about 20 million visitors a year since 1995 and the sector contributes
approximately 3% to GDP.3
1
Population Indicators 2012, The World Bank. http://databank.worldbank.org/ Data
for 2011; accessed 19 October 2012
2
CIA World Fact Book. Available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/mx.html. Accessed October 22nd, 2012
3
World Development Indicators 2012, The World Bank.
http://databank.worldbank.org/ Data for 2011; accessed 19 October 2012
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VI.2.
Nature of Aviation and shipping Industries
VI.2 1 Aviation
There are 249 airports in Mexico, and a further 1,425 airports without paved
runways2. The following is a list of all passenger and cargo airlines registered in
Mexico along with a description of their fleet. Age of planes is included where data
is available.4
Aeromar
Manufacturer
Type
Current Active
Planned
Av. Age Active (years)
Bombardier
CRJ 200
ATR
72-600
ATR
42-300
4
-
22.7
ATR
42-500
10
-
14.4
2
10.8
-
2
-
Aeromexico
Manufacturer
Type
Current Active
Planned
Av. Age Active (years)
Boeing
767-300(ER)
2
-
17.5
Boeing
777-200 (ER)
4
-
8.5
Boeing
767-200 (ER)
5
Boeing
737-800
12
6
7.9
Boeing
737-700
30
4
7.5
Current Active
Planned
Av. Age Active (years)
22
Aeromexico Connect
Manufacturer
Type
Embraer
ERJ-190
19
Embraer
ERJ-170
2
Embraer
ERJ-145
10
-
12.8
Embraer
ERJ-145LR
28
-
10.9
-
1.9
1
8.1
Aeronaves TSM
4
2
Airline Update, Mexico Country Profile. Available at
http://www.airlineupdate.com/content_public/airlines/northamerica/mexico.h
tm. Accessed October 22nd, 2012.
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Manufacturer
Type
Current Active
Planned
Av. Age Active (years)
McDonnell Douglas
DC9-30
5
-
44
Convair
CV-640 Series
3
-
58.2
Aeropacifico
Manufacturer
Type
Current Active
BAe
Jetstream 31
1
Let
L-410 UVP-E
1
AeroUnion
Manufacturer
Type
Airbus
A300B4 (F)
Current Active
4
Planned
-
Av. Age Active (years)
29.5
Estafeta Carga Aerea
Manufacturer
Type
Current Active
Boeing
737-200C
1
Boeing
737-300C
4
Bombardier
CRJ100
2
Global Air
Manufacturer
Type
Boeing
B737-200
Current Active
3
Planned
-
Av. Age Active (years)
30.1
Interjet
Data not available.
Magnicharters
3
Manufacturer
Type
Current Active
Boeing
737-200
2
Boeing
737-300
7
Inactive
-
Av. Age Active (years)
30.9
2
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24.3
Mas Air Cargo
Manufacturer
Type
Boeing
767-300F
Current Active
2
Planned
-
Av. Age Active (years)
5.4
Mayair
Manufacturer
Type
Shorts
Current Active
360
1
Mexicana
Data not available
Mexicana Click
Manufacturer
Type
Fokket
Current Active
100
25
Mexicana Link
Manufacturer
Type
Bombardier
CRJ-200ER
Current Active
12
Regional Cargo
Manufacturer
Type
Current Active
Boeing
737-200F
1
ATR
42-300F
1
VivaAeroBus
Data not available.
Volaris
Data not available.
Because of its geographic proximity to its key North American trading partners, the
majority of freight destined for The United States and Canada from Mexico travels
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by truck (88% in 2005). 5 As The United States is the destination for 71.7% of
exported goods from Mexico, and a further 7.4% go to Canada (2009 estimate),2
terrestrial modes, rather than shipping or aviation, have been central to the
Mexican export economy altough both shipping and aviation are growing. The growth
in air-freight transport has been pronounced over recent years, as shown in Figure 1
below.
1600
million ton-km
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Figure 1 Mexico air transport, freight
Source: World Development Indicators 2012, The World Bank
Having grown through the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, passenger aviation is, by
contrast, contracting, as Figure 2 shows.
5
5
Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation
statistics. Available at
http://www.bts.gov/publications/north_american_freight_transportation/html/
us_trade_with_canada_and_mexico.html. Accessed October 24th, 2012.
Research to assess impacts on developing countries of measures to
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25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
0
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2011
5000000
Figure 2 Air transport, passengers carried
Source: World Development Indicators 2012, The World Bank
VI.2.2 Shipping
There are 8 major ports in Mexico and 34 additional minor ones. Key data is
summarized Table 1.6
Table 1: Major Mexican Ports
Port Name
Port Type
Size
Altamira
Seaport
Medium
Altamira is the deep water port closest to the US that supported 1363 vessels in 2009 carrying 13.3 million tons of
cargo, including oil products, mineral bulk cargo, containerized cargo and vehicles. It handled 431,000 TEU’s in 2009
and is the country’s gateway for chemical products and petrochemicals.
Coatzacoalcos
Seaport
Medium
Coatzacoalcos is connected to Mexico City by rail and exports petroleum products and other exports. The port can
accommodate vessels up to 250m long and has depths of at least 11m. 90 vessels visited in 2008 with 411,000 tons
of cargo.
Lazaro Cardenas
Seaport
Medium
1158 vessels visited in 2008, carrying 20.9 million tons of cargo and more than 524,000 TEU’s. It is the only port in
Mexico with an 18m deep access channel, and can receive the largest vessels and all types of cargo.
Manzanillo
Seaport
Medium
By volume of cargo the busiest port in Mexico. This port is connected by 26 shipping lines to 74 global ports, and has
dredged channels 16m deep. In 2008, 1871 commercial vessels visited, as well as 30 cruise ships. 22.3 million tons of
cargo was handled, including 1.4m TEU’s.
Salina Cruz
Seaport
Small
Further data unavailable
Veracruz
Seaport
Large
Veracruz served 1671 vessels in 2008, carrying 18.4 million tons of cargo, including 716,000 TEU’s. Berths are up to
6
6
All data in this table is drawn from World Port Source. Available at
http://www.worldportsource.com/ports/index/MEX.php#M. Accessed October
22nd, 2012.
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507m long, and 12.8m deep.
Cayo Arcas terminal
Off-shore
Terminal
Very
Small
Further data unavailable
Dos Bocas terminal
Seaport
Medium
The arrival channel is 10m deep, and in 2008 the port exported 8 million tons of cargo, down from its 2003 peak of
30 million tons. The port can accommodate container ships up to 1000 TEU’s, roll-on/off vessels to 27.5 thousand
tons, and tankers to 13,000 tons.
At present, the national fleet of merchant marine vessels includes the following ship
types:







5 bulk carriers
cargo ships
11 chemical tankers
liquefied gas ships
10 passenger/cargo ships
17 petroleum tankers
roll on/roll off vessels2
The composition of the fleet emphasises the importance of shipping for the export
of fossil fuel, which in 2011 accounted for 14% of merchandise exports. 7 Mexican
ports are important trade nodes, particularly for petro-chemical exports. In addition
Mexican ports are increasingly in use for imports into the US, whose South Western
ports lack adequate capacity for US imports and futher expansion. (See below.)
VI.3.
Import and Export Summary
Imports
Mexico’s most important imports are machinery and parts for manufacturing,
including metalworking machines, steel mill products, agricultural machinery,
electrical equipment, car parts for assembly, repair parts for motor vehicles,
aircraft, and aircraft parts. 2 The significance of imports as a fraction of GDP has
remained steady at around 30% since 1995. Within this import stream, the
importance of refined fuel imports has increased.
7
7
World Development Indicators 2012, The World Bank.
http://databank.worldbank.org/ Data for 2011; accessed 19 October 2012
Research to assess impacts on developing countries of measures to
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2011
1
Figure 3 Fuel imports (% of merchandise imports)
Source: World Development Indicators 2012, The World Bank
Exports
Mexico is the world's eighth largest producer of oil, and exports 3 million barrels per
day. Fuel exports have broadly grown since 1998 with some years of contraction and
now constitute approximately 14% of merchandise exports. 7 Shipping is the primary
mode of oil transportation.
40
35
30
25
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0
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2011
5
Figure 4 Mexico Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports)
Source: World Development Indicators 2012, The World Bank
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Mexico’s other main exports are manufactured goods, silver, fruits, vegetables,
coffee, and cotton, of which 79% goes to the US and Canada. As mentioned above,
Mexico’s NAFTA arrangements are central to their economy, and ground based
transportation has been important for trade in non-oil products.5
Tourism
Tourism’s contributions to the national economy are important but modest. Since
1995, tourism has constituted a shrinking potion of GDP, and receipts from tourism
represented 4% of total exports in 2010, down from 7.7% in 1995. Visitor numbers
have hovered between 20 and 22 million per year and while Mexico’s tourist
economy is the largest in Latin America, its relative economic importance has
mostly fallen since 1995.3
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1
Figure 5 Mexico International tourism, receipts (% of total exports)
Source: World Development Indicators 2012, The World Bank
VI.4.
Key Demographics
Mexico’s Human Development Index is 0.77, which is considered high. Nevertheless,
significant inequity exists and Mexico is considered by the OECD to be the country
with the second highest degree of disparity between the extreme rich and the
extreme poor in the world after Chile. 5.2% of the population live on less than $2
per day, 17% of the population live below Mexico’s poverty line, and the overall
poverty rate stands at 44%. From 2004 to 2008 the portion of the population who
received less than half of the median income has risen from 17% to 21% and the
absolute levels of poverty have risen considerably from 2006 to 2010, with a rise in
persons living in extreme or moderate poverty rising from 35 to 46%.Error!
Bookmark not defined.
There is a significant indigenous population in Mexico, representing 62 indigenous
languages and 10.1 million people in 2005, or 9.8% of the population (2005
estimate). All of the indices of social development for the indigenous population are
considerably lower than the national average. 55% of the indigenous population
receive less than a minimum salary and many practice subsistence agriculture and
receive no salaries. There is little connection with tourism here, or a particular
dependence on key imports or exports from indigenous peoples.Error! Bookmark
not defined.
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VI.5.
Potential Tourism impacts
As tourism’s role in the Mexican economy is modest compared with other emerging
economies considered in this study, the impact of an enfeebled tourism industry is
likely to be relatively limited. As a large country with significant fossil fuel exports,
a diverse economy, and strong and accessible regional trading partners, other
factors will more decisively affect its future.
Increased shipping prices would certainly affect Mexico’s oil export industry. The
impact on planned port expansion and Mexico’s maritime imports would also be
pronounced (see below). The growing air-freight industry would also be impacted by
higher air costs.
It is difficult to speculate on the impact of such changes on Mexico’s poorest,
although the impact is likely to be limited, as these groups have an extremely
limited role in the petro-chemical, shipping, or tourism industries.
VI.6.
Planned Port Expansions
Significant port developments are taking place in Mexico with the aim of relieving
the congestion at ports at Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland in the US, and
expanding Mexico’s role as a logistics centre for global trade. Current US congestion
is such that ships must wait a week to unload in some places.8
At Lazaro Cardenes Mexico, three-phases of port development are planned that will
increase annual capacity to 2 million TEU’s per year by 2026. Expansion is underway
at Manzanillo to double TEU capacity to 2 million per year, and at Veracruz, new
transport links have improved ground transportation for cargo travelling to and from
the port by both road and rail.8 Further development for 32 new docks is proposed.
Significant expansion is also planned at Guayamas, although specifics are unclear. 9
A large port is proposed for Punta Colonet, in the north of Baja, just south of San
Diego. A sparsely populated inlet is proposed as the location for what would become
the largest Mexican port, and the third largest global port. The multi-model
maritime centre would be a mega-container port capable of handling nextgeneration vessels, and would handle 1 million TEU’s per year. 10
Airport expansion is also planned and taking place. Mexico’s second busiest airport,
Cancun, is constructing a fourth terminal to handle 800,000 additional passengers by
2015. 11 Guadalajara airport is also planning to upgrade and expand its passenger
8
Financial Times://www.ft.com/cms/s/517fa2d0-3b8b-11df-a4c0-00144feabdc0
Accessed on October 24th, 2012.
9
Arizona Daily Star: http://azstarnet.com/business/local/port-of-guaymas-set-toexpand/article_1faea8eb-20bf-5fa3-b22c-95d98727a374.html. Accessed on
October 24th, 2012.
10
Punta Colonet, Wikipedia. Available at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punta_Colonet#Proposed_Port Accessed on
October 25th, 2012.
11
Cancun Airport, Wikipedia. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canc%C3%BAn_International_Airport#Expansion
Accessed October 25th, 2012.
10
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facilities and double its passenger capacity to 12 million per year although dates of
completion are not available.12
VI.7.
Modelling results
The modelling results of the Global Emissions Trading for international aviation and
shipping (MBM1a) scenario foresee a relatively small impact on the national GDP of
Mexico, totalling a 0.042% contraction of GDP in 2025. The majority of this
contraction (-0.035%) is through impacts on the aviation sector, with the remainder
(-0.008%) from shipping.
The impact on Mexico’s GDP could relate to the country’s proportionately high
dependence upon overland trade and shipping, with aviation-based trade accounting
for a smaller fraction of imports and exports than in many of the other case study
economies considered. In addition to this, a declining contribution of tourism to
national GDP may be a factor in buffering the impact of MBMs.
If MBMs auctioning revenues are used for reducing employers’ social security
contributions, then this is anticipated to further reduce the negative impacts of
Global Emissions Trading for international aviation and shipping on Mexico’s GDP, to
-0.017% for aviation and -0.001% for shipping, totalling -0.018%. The negative
impacts can be reduced even further if Mexico provides 2% of CDM credits demanded
under MBMs for international Shipping and aviation. In this case the modelling
estimates a slight decrease of 0.010%.
VI.8.
Similar Countries
Mexico’s economy is largely defined by its proximity to and physical connection with
The United States, the NAFTA trade agreement that accompanies this connection,
and its oil reserves. These characteristics are not wholly replicated in other
emerging economies although some partial parallels exist.
Countries with similar HDI indexes include Chile, Trinidad and Tobago, and Samoa.
In terms of income, the other countries in this study have higher poverty levels, but
Mexico’s income discrepancy is comparable to Chile’s.13
From the perspective of key domestic industries, other economies that produce
more than 1.5 million barrels of oil a day include Iran, China, Venezuela, Nigeria,
Libya, Angola, and Kazakstan. 14 For Mexico, oil is central to the export economy,
and this would apply in the other cases listed here. Constraints on shipping would
affect their maritime oil exports in a similar way to Mexico’s.
Physically, there are no other emerging economies that are as geographically close
to the US, but other countries with close geographic and economic ties and include
The Bahamas and other Caribbean nations. Mexico’s extensive coastline is similar to
Chile’s and other coastal South American countries, although Mexico’s bi-coastal
geography is only replicated by Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and
12
Guadalajara Airport. Available at: http://www.pgal.com/portfolio/guadalajarainternational-airport-t-1-improvements/ Accessed on October 24th, 2012.
13
Climate Strategies, Phase3Report, August 14 th.
14
Oil Producing Countries, Wikipedia. Available at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_producing_nations Accessed October 26th
2012.
11
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Colombia. Other than Colombia, these other nations coastlines are much less
extensive than Mexico’s.
12
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