Download Eyeopener – NBP projection and data abroad

Eyeopener – NBP projection and data abroad
26 February 2010
Market moods remain volatile. Yesterday slight weakening
of the zloty with deteriorated sentiment in the global
markets due to weak labour market data from the US,
warnings about possible downgrade of Greece’s rating
and fall in stock markets. Overnight higher optimism and
gains of the zloty after strong data from Asia.
Local bonds gained being resistant to zloty performance
and events abroad
Today a bunch of major data abroad, the NBP released
new Inflation report with details of new projections
Yesterday during the domestic session the zloty slightly recovered
with deteriorated moods in the global markets due to negative
influence of weak data from the US labour market, warnings from
rating agencies about a possible downgrade of Greece and weak
macro figures from the euro zone. Much better expected data on
durable goods from the US failed to improve market sentiment.
The euro zone’s economic sentiment indicator unexpectedly fell to
95.9 in February from 96.0 in January (against expected rise to 96.4)
and this was the first drop after 10 months of growth. The number of
initial jobless claims in the US rose 22k and reached 496k against
expected drop to 460k. The date increased concerns about prospects
for improvement in labour market. Durable goods in the US increase
3%MoM in January after rise of 1.9%MoM a month earlier while
growth of 1.5% was expected.
On Wednesday, the S&P agency said that it might downgrade rating
of Greece until the end of March and yesterday head of the agency’s
European ratings said that the downgrade of rating for Greece would
be a political challenge and could force the government to take
necessary steps towards resolution of fiscal problems. At the same
time he said there is no risk of insolvency of any country in the euro
zone. Also yesterday Moody’s said rating of Greece may be
downgraded, if it fails to execute its plan of fiscal deficit reduction from
the highest level in the EU (12.7% of GDP in 2009).
The EURPLN rate went slightly up during the day to ca. 4.00 from
3.988 at the opening. The zloty slightly weakened against the euro
despite slight recovery of the single currency against the dollar to
1.353 at the end of the session from 1.347 at the opening. This in turn
occurred despite declines in the stock markets and warnings from
rating agencies regarding Greece. Both the dollar and the euro
weakened against the Japanese yen. During the Asian session the
EURUSD rate increase was continued to ca. 1.36 amid improving risk
appetite after better than expected data on industrial output in Japan
(increase by 2.5% in January) and moods in manufacturing in Korea.
Sentiment improvement abroad resulted in the zloty strengthening,
which opened stronger today near 3.98 vs. the euro.
Relatively negative performance of the zloty and quite pessimistic
moods in the world markets did not affect the local debt market, which
strengthened during the day by a few basis points. At the same time
there was an increase in RIS rates by a few basis points. In the core
debt markets there were no significant changes despite weakening of
the stock markets and amid mixed tone of the US data. At the end of
the day yields of 10Y Treasuries and Bunds were at 3.11% and
3.647%, respectively, against 3.10% and 3.66% at the opening.
In the interim forecasts for the 7 biggest economies of the European
Union, the European Commission upwardly revised GDP growth
forecast for Poland for 2010 to 2.6% from 1.8% predicted in autumn
forecasts. At the same time it maintained its forecast for the EU and
the euro zone at 0.7% (1.2% in Germany). According to comments
from EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, the
European Commission is going to present the assessment of the
updated Polish Convergence programme in March.
Minister of finance Jacek Rostowski said yesterday that assumptions
to the bills, which would allow to introduce measures included in the
fiscal consolidation plan, will be known in March-April.
Today in the morning the National Bank of Poland published the
Inflation Report, which included the new inflation projection of CPI
and GDP. As regards growth projections, the report notes the
expected change in the breakdown of growth in Poland in the next
couple of years – acceleration in domestic demand (moderate in case
of consumption and more significant for fixed investments) and
neutral or slightly negative effect of net exports. We assume the
similar change in the GDP breakdown but of a larger scale and thus
higher GDP growth. According to the NBP the balance of risks for
GDP and CPI projections is neutral. On the one hand, NBP said that
substantial risk is connected with a possibility of higher food and
energy prices (the projection assumes these prices to accelerate in
2012 anyway). On the other hand, lower inflation path as compared to
the central projection (and GDP) might be driven by zloty
appreciation. In our opinion, the latter factor is more important and
more probable. More details will be known after the press conference,
which started at 9:00 local time.
Today in the euro zone inflation data will be published. According to
market expectations HICP index in January rose by 1%YoY against
0.9% in December. In the afternoon the revised US GDP data for the
fourth quarter will be released and the market consensus points to the
figures of 5.7%YoY and 0.6%QoQ. This would be in line with previous
release. In the last quarter of 2009 growth in the US was driven by
positive impact of change in inventories (slowdown in inventory
destocking process), slowdown in imports and some rebound in nonhousing investments. Later during the day (15:45 CET) the Chicago
PMI will be published with expected fall in January to 60 from 61.5.
Also, ten minutes later the Michigan index of consumer confidence
will be released and analysts expect it remained close to the
preliminary reading of 73.7. Data on home sales, to be released at the
end of European session, are forecasted by the market at 0.9%MoM.
0,
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
TREASURY SERVICES
ul. Marszałkowska 142. 00-061
email: [email protected]
fax +48 022 586 83 40
Web site: http://www.bzwbk.pl
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Piotr Bielski
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Cezary Chrapek
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Eyeopener – daily update
Kursy walutowe (dzisiejsze otwarcie)
EURUSD
USDPLN
EURPLN
CHFPLN
JPYPLN*
GBPPLN
1.3570
2.9332
3.9795
2.7198
3.2839
4.4749
Kurs złotego (fixing)
CADPLN
DKKPLN
NOKPLN
SEKPLN
CZKPLN
HUFPLN
Przegląd rynku finansowego
2.7659
0.5348
0.4944
0.4089
0.1533
1.4719
-
3.00
4.15
2.95
4.10
2.90
4.05
2.85
4.00
2.80
3.95
25.02.2010
Rentowności obligacji skarbowych
%
6.30
6.10
5.70
%
Zmiana
(pb)
%
Zmiana
(pb)
%
Zmiana
(pb)
5.50
4.41
4.97
5.29
5.48
5.58
5.72
5.72
-2
2
2
3
2
5
6
0.46
1.05
1.66
2.17
2.59
3.38
3.69
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-7
-7
1.11
1.44
1.88
2.15
2.44
3.07
3.34
-1
-3
-1
-1
0
1
2
5.30
5.10
4.90
Dzienna zmiana (pb)
4.15
1X2
3X6
6X9
9X12
3X9
6X12
3.63
4.22
4.42
4.65
4.35
4.59
0
1
-4
0
-4
-3
4.10
17 Feb
15 Feb
13 Feb
25 Feb
%
25 Feb
Termin
Stawki FRA (Mid)
23 Feb
-1
5
0
1
0
-1
0
0
0
23 Feb
2.87
3.01
3.31
3.41
3.62
4.14
4.24
4.36
4.44
21 Feb
O/N
T/N
SW
2W
1M
3M
6M
9M
1Y
5L
21 Feb
Dzienna zmiana (pb)
19 Feb
%
11 Feb
9 Feb
2L
Termin
19 Feb
Stawki WIBOR
7 Feb
5 Feb
28 Jan
4.70
3 Feb
EZ
1 Feb
US
30 Jan
PL
10L
3-miesięczne stawki rynku pienięŜnego
%
4.50
4.45
4.40
4.35
4.30
4.25
WIBOR
FRA 3x6
17 Feb
15 Feb
13 Feb
11 Feb
9 Feb
5 Feb
3 Feb
1 Feb
30 Jan
28 Jan
4.20
7 Feb
1L
2L
3L
4L
5L
8L
10L
EUR (prawa oś)
5.90
Stawki IRS (Mid)
Termin
25 Feb
4.972
5.778
6.046
23 Feb
10.02
2.12
20.01
21 Feb
0
-6
-4
19 Feb
4.88
5.42
6.02
USD (lewa oś)
Obligacje
17 Feb
2L
5L
10L
15 Feb
Śr.
rentown.
13 Feb
%
Ostatnia
aukcja
11 Feb
Termin
Zmiana
(pb)
9 Feb
3.9933
2.9601
-
7 Feb
fixing
3.9967
2.9599
1.3510
5 Feb
zamkn.
3.9880
2.9605
1.3475
3 Feb
otwarcie
1 Feb
max
4.0067
2.9752
1.3527
30 Jan
min
3.9846
2.9528
1.3465
EURPLN
USDPLN
EURUSD
28 Jan
Główne notowania walutowe
FRA 6x9
* for 100 JPY
Source: Reuters
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