Download Q32014 CBRE Metro Manila

Metro Manila
MarketView
Global Research and Consulting
Q3 2014
Q2 2014 GDP
6.4 % yoy
UNEMPLOYMENT
6.7% (Jul 2014)
PHP/USD AVERAGE
43.77 (Q3 2014)
91 T-BILL RATES
1.2% (Sep 2014)
10-YEAR T-BOND
4.19% (Sep 2014)
INFLATION AVERAGE
4.7% (Q3 2014)
REAL ESTATE SUSTAINS UPTREND AMIDST POLICY SHIFTS IN THE BANKING SECTOR
High-quality buildings to prop
up the Office market
Upcoming supply of office space will
be comprised of buildings suited for
BPO operations. Developer offerings
takes a new level.
Upbeat business environment
entices Retail investors
Entry of foreign investments are
expected with the bullish outlook on
the retail sector. Opening of brands
such as Reiss, Cortefiel and Lawson
are being highly anticipated.
Rich clients drive demand for
high-end and luxury
condominiums
Take up of residential spaces in
Bonifacio Global City remains
positive as foreign clients and affluent
locals invest in upscale multi-unit
buildings.
1
More developers venture in
industrial projects
Expanding manufacturing activity is
being seen by property developers as
an opportunity to boost their
operations.
The property market continues to
perform well in the third quarter due
to bullish commercial activities in the
sector. Strong performance in all
sectors was brought about by the
expansion of the economy. The
Philippines’ faster-than-expected economic expansion in the second
quarter trickled down to major sectors.
Output growth for the real estate,
renting and business activities industry,
as measured by gross value added,
grew by 8.9% year-on-year – faster
than the registered 6.4% gross
domestic product (GDP) reported
during the period. The real estate
market is the third biggest contributor
to GDP points after trade & repair of
motor vehicles, motorcycles, personal
and household goods and the
manufacturing sector.
Increasing investments from developers, rising appetite of the affluent
for high-end and luxury condominiums, and the expanding presence
of companies in the retail and office
markets have supported the acceleration of the industry.
Current market conditions also
benefited listed companies engaged in
real estate.
Property stocks continue its uptrend
and this has encouraged some
companies to plan their listing on the
local stock market. The sector is
expecting property developer Profriends and specialty retail Store
Specialists Inc. to become publicly
listed companies before yearend.
Retail conglomerate SM group made
plans to merge the reclamation
projects of Pasay and Paranaque into
one investment totaling PhP 100
billion. The project is now being
master planned and is expected to
begin in the next few years.
Meanwhile, Vista Land has forayed
into developing commercial business
districts. The key project, which
encompasses properties in Muntinlupa, Las Pinas, Cavite and Laguna,
will be turned into integrated urban
development named as Vista City. The
1,500 hectare Vista Land property is
geared towards attracting residents,
commercial
locators
including
business process outsourcing, healthcare and leisure companies.
Continued on page 6…
Q3 2014
OFFICE
NEW WAVE OF O&O LEASING COMMITMENTS STRENGTHEN THE OFFICE MARKET
Metro Manila | MarketView
The office market continues to heat up and developers go
full steam ahead with building activities as leasing
commitments from offshoring and outsourcing (O&O)
companies boost the performance of the sector. Real
estate transactions for office spaces increased and foreign
companies continue to bank on the Philippines’
comparative advantages. Cost-efficiency and highlyskilled labor force are the main attraction for
multinational companies. O&O firms also gain from the
current depreciation of the peso by helping shore up
higher profit margins.
Investments from O&O firms will fuel the growth of the
business process outsourcing (BPO) industry as these
entities look for ways to improve profitability. This growth
is expected to strengthen over the next 10 years as the
country improves its infrastructure – i.e. new commercial
areas, roads, highways – and creates government policies
that seeks to maintain stability and a more attractive
investment climate.
Several township developments proliferate in various
business districts such as Bayshore City in Pasay; City
Gate in Makati; Uptown Bonifacio, Mckinley West and
Arca South in Taguig; Woodsite City and Capitol
Commons in Pasig; and Vertis North in Quezon City.
These township developments will boost the office supply
in the coming years to sustain the growing demand of
outsourcing companies. The integrated community
concept of a township development complete with diverse
amenities is the current trend among property developers.
UPCOMING OFFICE SUPPLY (SQ.M)
2014
2015
2016
2017
TBD
Quezon City
Ortigas
Makati CBD
Fort Bonifacio
Alabang
2
Pasay City
0
400
800
Thousands
Filinvest 2 & 3
Investment prospects remain favorable for existing
commercial areas in Metro Manila. Makati CBD’s prime
office buildings is the top choice for tenants with distinct
requirements. Vacancy of prime offices dipped to 0.58%
from 1.58% of the preceding quarter. Three of the prime
buildings in Makati CBD are now fully leased out, namely
The Zuellig Building, RCBC Plaza and Ayala Tower One
and Exchange Plaza. Average rental rate for prime
buildings was pegged at PhP 1,234 per square meter
(sq.m). Similarly, vacancy rate for Grade A buildings also
dipped at 0.94% compared to 1.27% during the previous
quarter. O&O firms are bullish for Grade A buildings.
Average rental rate for Grade A buildings slightly inched
up at PhP 885 per sq. m compared to PhP 825 of the
previous quarter. Vacancy rates are expected to dip
further over the next three years as developments in the
country’s premier commercial district remain scant. This
will put pressure for average rental rates in the area to go
higher.
Bonifacio Global City (BGC) also experienced brisk
activities in the real estate market due to the relocation of
BPO companies in the Philippines, with BGC showing
clear manifestation of developing into an established
central business district like Makati CBD. Average rental
rate at Bonifacio Global City hiked to PhP 817 per sq. m
from PhP 797 per sq. m from the last quarter. Strong
demand from various BPO and multinational firms
resulted to a drop in vacancy rate from the second
quarter’s 3.78% to 3.50% in Q3 2014. Supply will go
higher by the end of 2014, as several office buildings like
MDi Corporate Center, Orion, Uptown Place Tower One,
8 Campus Place Tower C and Twenty-Four Seven
Building will be out for delivery. This will yield a total of
72,183.98 sq. m of leasable office space for 2014. The
abundance of developable land in Fort Bonifacio will
continue to uphold the construction of new office
buildings in the area.
Ortigas Center is set to welcome new office developments
like Estancia at Capitol Commons, Silver City and Tower
3 within Rockwell Business Center. Rental rates will
escalate once the building is completed by next quarter.
Current average rental rate is at PhP 591 per sq. m.
Vacancy rate fell from 8.75% in Q2 2014 to 5.63% this
quarter.
Continued on page 7…
PROPERTY SECTOR BUOYED BY BULLISH SENTIMENT IN THE LUXURY MARKET
Property prices for residential units are also rising due to
limited developable land in urban areas. Rents for highend residential spaces remain steady in Q3 2014.
Three-, Four-, Five- bedroom houses in Makati City are
leased within the price range of PhP 160,000 to PhP
550,000. Luxury condominium with three-bedrooms are
rented within the range of PhP 100,000 – PhP 230,000.
Rental rates for three- and four-bedroom luxury condominiums at Bonifacio Global City are within the range
of PhP 170,000 – PhP 400,000.
SHARE ON CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY PER CITY
Quezon City
17.21%
23.59%
Manila
Sales of multi-residential buildings in the affordable and
mid-market segment is driven by families of Filipinos
working abroad and local professionals in senior
management positions which have higher marginal
propensity to consume. The flight-to-quality remains a trend
as housing investments coming from middle- to highincome households are realized by their need to move from
their lower quality dwellings to high value living spaces that
are located within mixed-use communities and near to
places where residents can shop, work, and play.
The country’s favorable macroeconomic fundamentals
provide a conducive environment for buyers and sellers of
real estate. Low interest rates have allowed banks to lend to
real estate developers and the benign inflation environment
enabled the central bank to allow liquidity in the market.
Excess cash has empowered buyers to invest in real estate
and supported developers’ in launching new condominium
projects.
Metro Manila | MarketView
The residential market continues to perform well with the
upbeat economy. Demand for luxury, high-end, affordable and mid-market condominiums remains positive
beating fears of a property bubble in the sector.
Q3 2014
RESIDENTIAL
Of the total projects slated for turn-over this year, 50% are
developments in the mid-market segment. On the other
hand, projects in the affordable and high-end segment
account for 27% and 21%, respectively.
Makati City
7.33%
9.42%
17.52%
10.10%
14.83%
In nine months to September, developers are keenly
observing market conditions especially with the projected
Taguig City
slowdown in the global economy. The number of new
Mandaluyong City project launches during this period have centered on
upscale condominiums catering to luxurious buyers and
Pasig City
expatriates. Some pundits are speculating that the cycle has
Others
plateaued for the affordable and mid-market segment.
Saturation is about to be reached as developers started to
limit announcement of new launches for condominium units
below selling prices of PhP 2 million.
Foreign and local upper income households are
currently the top investors in high-end and luxury
condominiums. These affluent investors have parked
their funds in high value investments to gain from
anticipated rise in yields.
Residential condominiums is still the top investment
choice for high net worth individuals locally and rich
foreign investors from neighboring Asian countries and
the United States. Many developers capture this market
through pre-selling their new residential projects
abroad. Sales activities to foreigners comprise 40% of
new condominium developments. This ceiling allowed
by the government is usually maxed out due to strong
interest by foreigners in owning a property in the
Philippines. Meanwhile, majority or 60% of the
condominium titles are sold to Filipinos.
3
Increasing expatriate community in the country is also
driving the leasing demand as more multinational
companies relocate to the country due to cost
competitiveness, good customer service, and highlyskilled labor. Significant interest in housing spaces are
from businesses in the following sectors: diplomatic
corps, information technology, banking and financial
services, contact centers, and business process
outsourcing.
The residential sector in the country will continue to thrive
due to the fortified office sector, dynamic retail sector and
construction of numerous residential condominiums. With
investor confidence solidified, it is anticipated that the
demand for residential properties will continue to pick up in
the coming years. 
3
Arya Residences
Q3 2014
INDUSTRIAL
LOCATORS WOOED WITH ANTICIPATED SUPPLY BOOST
Metro Manila | MarketView
Growth of the manufacturing
industry remains consistent after
registering a 9.6% volume of
production growth in July as a result
of higher export demand during the
previous months. The whole industrial sector also expanded by 6.8% in
the second quarter. The profitable
operations of the manufacturing
firms, coupled with the growing
market of the country, are now
creating expansion opportunities for
current local and foreign occupiers.
Widespread within the different
industrial growth areas, existing
locators from different manufacturing industries will be augmenting
their operations. Notably, the growth
of the automotive industry is being
eyed in the country as its expansion
is being seen to be an integral part
of the manufacturing resurgence.
Established player, Toyota Motors
Philippines, is optimistic in the
country’s market and is now planning to expand their current plant
and even relocate some of their
Thailand
operations
in
the
Philippines. With the promise of the
said industry, the government is
allocating resources to bolster the
operations of the automotive manufacturers. Foreign firms are also
being pursued to set up shop in the
country.
4
The upbeat prospects of the
Philippines persisted to elicit the
inflow of investments. Foreign
investors acknowledge the business
environment of the Philippines to be
conducive given its robust macroeconomic indicators, competitive
labor resources and stabilizing
political climate. Moreover, the
different incentives being laid by
PEZA eases the operation and
expansion of the current and upcoming locators. Thus, entry of
investors of different nationalities
was still observed during the quarter.
For the first nine months of the year,
investor pledges even recorded 6.2%
higher than last year.
German firm Stihl has recently poured in
PhP 2.5 billion for their manufacturing
plant in First Philippine Industrial Park,
Batangas. In addition, Japanese firms
were particularly observed to convey
interest in investing in the country as they
plan to shift their operations from China.
The lucrative operations of current
foreign locators have also been paving
way to the entry of more Korean
investors.
Eyeing to sustain the momentum of the
manufacturing activity and investments,
the national government has been
actively tapping in other countries to lure
more foreign entrants. Several trade
missions were conducted in different
countries to invite potential investors in
the country. Public infrastructures are
already in the pipeline to further
stimulate industrial productivity. However,
this
strong
demand
should
be
counterbalanced by a growing supply of
industrial spaces. As such, the private
sector is currently being nudged by
different government agencies to engage
in the development of economic zones.
Strong demand by locators proved to be
an opportunity for several property
developers. Stable take-up was also
registered by Megaworld in their first
industrial estate in Cavite. This feat
entices other national players to venture
in the segment. Recently, Vista Land
expressed their desire to develop their
own economic zone. Likewise, Ayala
Land Inc. has announced their plan of
increasing their industrial portfolio
through new developments in Pampanga
and the CALABARZON region. On the
other hand, bidding for the development
of Clark Green City, which will have a
substantial industrial portion, is currently
being processed.
The current lack in supply in the
immediate vicinity of Metro Manila is
now influencing landlords to raise their
asking rates. Some prime industrial parks
even registered an increase of more than
20% in selling prices from PhP 4,000 to
PhP 5,000 per sq. m. On the other hand,
lease rates for industrial warehouses
within Metro Manila are pegged at
SUBIC BAY FREEPORT
Metro-Manila : 130 kms (68 Miles) / 2 –
2.5 Hours
Size : 67,000 hectares / 165,560 acres
Power : 130 mws
Water : 33,000 cubic meters/day
Telco Provider: Subictel (PLDT)
Lease Rate : US$0.40 -US$1.70 /sq. m*
US$2.00 -US$6.00/sq. m (SFB)*
CLARK FREEPORT ZONE
Metro Manila : 80 Kms (50 Miles) /
1+Hour
Size : 33,653 Hectare / 83,158 Acres
Power : 50mws + External
Water : Max 40k cubic meters/day (2010)
Telco Providers : PLDT & Digitel
Lease Rate :
US$ 0.30 -US$ 2.00/sq. m (Main Zone
Lot)*
PhP5,500 -PhP25,000 /ha (Sub Zone Lot)*
US$3.00-US$5.00 /sq. m (SFB)*
CALABARZON
Metro-Manila :110 Kms (68 Miles) /
2 Hour Drive to Batangas
Power : Varies by Location
Water : Varies by Location
Telco Providers : Varies by Location (PLDT
etc.)
Selling Rate : PhP4,000 –PhP6,000 /sq. m
(Lot)
Lease Rate : PhP50 – PhP80 /sq. m (Lot)*
US$2 –US$6 /sq. m (SFB)*
* Lease rate per month
SFB (Standard Factory Building)
PhP 130 to PhP 450 per sq. m per
month.
Despite the uptick during the
quarter, land values are again
expected to remain constant in the
short-run. New economic zones are
anticipated in the coming periods
which will result to more competitive
pricing amongst the landlords.
However, upcoming private and
public infrastructures which will fuel
the industrial growth are expected to
push these values in the long-term.
More investment commitments are
also seen to materialize in the
coming months, further driving down
the vacancy rates in industrial
developments. Ultimately, government thrusts toward the manufacturing sector will play a vital part
in its resurgence as it is expected to
bring inclusive growth.
Q3 2014
RETAIL
UPBEAT INVESTMENT CLIMATE ELICITS ROSIER RETAIL SEGMENT
Foreign retail investments are expected to be
bolstered by the optimistic outlook on the country’s
economy. This bullishness was even supported by the
2014 Global Retail Development Index where the
Philippines was considered to be a top performer.
Retail sales are forecasted to grow by 10% in the next
three years, along with the continuous entry of global
brands. Notable new entrants which became
operational during the quarter are Baskin-Robbins,
Yves Saint-Laurent, and Pottery Barn. Opening of new
brands like Pull & Bear, Cortefiel and Alexander
McQueen are also being highly anticipated in the
coming quarters.
The intensifying competition amongst convenience
stores also attests to the brisk consumption in the
country. 7-Eleven, a pioneer in the convenience store
segment in the country, has laid out their store
expansion plan for the rest of the year. Correspondingly, FamilyMart is now open for franchising as
they eye faster broadening of their market reach.
Entry and expansion of other local and foreign
brands like Lawson, Alfamart and All-Day is set to
advance the convenience store competition as they
vie for positions in the market.
The surge in the number of retail locators, fashion brands
and convenience stores alike, firmly fuels the demand for
commercial spaces. This spurs opportunity for more
developers to further expand their retail portfolio. Several
players like Robinsons Land Corp. and Ortigas & Co.,
however, failed to meet the target completion date of
their respective mall projects. Hence, limited retail spaces
were introduced during the quarter. Expanding brands
took up spaces in relatively new shopping buildings such
as Bonifacio High Street Central Square, SM Megamall
Building D (Fashion Hall) and Shangri-La Plaza East
Wing.
Metro Manila | MarketView
Favorable business climate arising from positive and
long-term reforms has been recognized in the recent
periods. The political reforms and infrastructure
developments in the pipeline have contributed in the
creation of a bustling economy. As such, household
consumption was registered at elevated levels, further
painting a sanguine image for the retail segment.
Several malls are expected to be operational by the last
quarter of 2014 as developers seek to take opportunity of
the spike in consumption during the holiday season. Over
120,000 square meters (sq. m) of retail space are still
seen to come online through malls like Robinson Place
Las Piñas and Estancia Capitol Commons. Retail supply is
further boosted by several upcoming mixed-used projects.
More residential property developers are diversifying into
the retail segment. The current trend among industry
players is to allocate a significant portion of their projects
for retail use. This is to accommodate the consumers’
demand for shopping convenience where they are offered
ease of access from their residence or office. Upcoming
mixed-used projects such as Solaire expansion and City of
Dreams are predicted to boost the retail supply by at least
65,000 sq. m.
Continued on page 7…
UPBEAT INVESTMENT CLIMATE ELICITS ROSIER RETAIL SEGMENT
80
All Industry
Retail Trade
Real Estate
70
60
50
Index
40
30
20
10
5
0
5
-10
-20
2007
2008
2009
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3 2014
COVER
Metro Manila | MarketView
Public private partnerships have moved forward after the
government approved critical projects targeted to improve
the country’s infrastructure. The faster approval and
execution of infrastructure projects is a good encouragement for investors to invest in the Philippines.
Other important factors in attracting foreign investment
are political stability through good governance, benign
inflation, and low interest rates.
These positive trends are expected to be sustained until the
next year. Consensus estimates from analysts and
economists forecast the economy to grow within a range
of 6.2-6.6% in 2014. The rosy forecast stemmed from the
GDP pick up in the second quarter and the related
prospects for growth in the US economy. Inflation has
tempered to 4.4% in September after accelerating to 4.9%
in July. The benign inflation rate spurs additional
investments to the real estate sector as the latter provides
higher yields based on current land values.
While there is no recognized asset bubble in the market,
the BSP has implemented stricter policies to help banks
beef up their resources and guard them from risks that
could occur from speculative lending to the property
sector. The minimum capital requirement for larger banks
was increased by as much as six times the current level
and the collateral value of real estate mortgages was
limited to 60% under new credit standard to be
implemented over two years.
Another bright spot in the country is the ASEAN integration
that is set for 2015. The real estate industry is expected to
benefit from the influx of investments from foreign
companies expanding their market reach. The increase in
demand for new buildings in the subsectors such as office,
residential, retail and industrial will put pressure on
developers to construct projects that will cater to the
growth of the market. 
Buyers of real estate are driven by the escalation in land
values and rent. Data gathered by the Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas (BSP) show loans to real estate sector grow by
PhP 1 trillion or about 18.3% of the financial system’s total
loan portfolio. About PhP 27.2 billion are classified as
past due while PhP 24.4 billion was booked as nonperforming loans. These are low compared from the levels
experienced in the past crisis.
Q2 2014 REAL ESTATE GVA MOVES FASTER THAN GDP
14
12
10
8.9
% year-on-year
8
6.4
6
4
2
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
1999
6
2000
2001
2002
2003
Real GDP
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real estate, rent & business activities sector
2012
2013
2014
Q3 2014
OFFICE
Metro Manila | MarketView
Meanwhile, Alabang, Muntinlupa has progressed as a
viable alternative BPO destination to Makati and Fort
Bonifacio. Influx of BPO occupiers and tightened office
supply resulted to a significant drop of vacancy rate from
4.37% during the previous quarter to 0.90% in Q3 2014.
Average rental rates remain unchanged at PhP 601.78
per sq. m. An additional 66,054.22 sq. m of office space
will be offered upon the completion of Filinvest Two,
Filinvest Three and Aeon Prime building by the end of the
year.
Science Hub 4
Office supply in Pasay City is seen to grow upon the
completion of Five E-com Center. Pasay City registered
the lowest rental rate among the commercial districts in
Metro Manila with an average rental rate of PhP 495 sq.
m. Rental rates remain com-petitive in the area which
attracts locators such as BPOs, manpower recruitment,
and financial firms. Vacancy rate in the area was recorded
at 2.04%.
Among all the business districts, only Quezon City posted
an increase in vacancy rating to 0.93% from 0.07% due to
the movements of tenants occupying small units. Average
rental rate in this area was recorded at PhP 627 per sq.
m.
The Philippine office sector is expected to remain upbeat
in the coming years as strong demand from O&O firms
continue. Expansion of back office operations by foreign
and local firms will continue to drive developers to pursue
the construction of office facilities. By year-end, a total of
256,236.45 sq. m of leasable office supply will be
available across all business districts in the country.
Average rent is anticipated to increase as developers aim
to offer high-quality office buildings to the market.
RETAIL
Developers are also eyeing to establish greater presence
in the provinces, especially in areas where the consumer
base is dynamically changing. Spurring mall developments were seen in locations with growing demographics such as Rizal, Cavite, Cebu and Iloilo.
Solid demand for retail spaces resulted in high
commercial lease rates particularly in prime locations. A
wide range of retail lease rates was registered in Fort
Bonifacio where new upscale shopping destinations are
situated. Here, different malls are asking for rents ranging
from PhP 900 to PhP 2,400 per sq. m. per month. On the
other hand, the established commercial complexes in
Makati CBD are currently commanding rates from PhP
1,100 to PhP 1,500 per sq. m. per month. The new supply
from Shangri-La Plaza and SM Megamall Fashion Hall
also fueled the increase in lease rate in Ortigas which now
ranges from PhP 1,300 to PhP 3,000 per sq. m. per
month. Lastly, malls in Alabang have rates ranging from
PhP 800 to PhP 1,100 per sq. m. per month.
7
With the ASEAN integration nearing, collaboration among
investors are being anticipated which will lead to the
expansion of local and foreign retail brands. Strong
business confidence in retail trade for the succeeding
quarter conceives a brighter prospect for the said
segment. Along with the robust macroeconomic
fundamentals, stimulated retail activity is seen to ensue in
the coming periods.
Central Square
Q3 2014
CONTACTS
BEST REAL ESTATE AGENCY
Metro Manila | MarketView
For more information, please contact:
Manila Office
10th Floor, Ayala Tower One &
Exchange Plaza
Ayala Avenue, Makati City 1226
t:(632) 752-2580/848-7388
f: (632) 752-2571
e: [email protected]
w: www.cbre.com.ph
2013-2014




Cebu Office
Unit 1505, Ayala Life-FGU Center
Mindanao Avenue corner Biliran Road,
Cebu Business Park
Cebu City 6000
t:(6332) 318-0070/236-0462


2014-2015
BEST INTERNATIONAL
LETTINGS AGENCY (ASIA
PACIFIC, PHILIPPINES)
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CONSULTANCY
MARKETING (ASIA
PACIFIC, PHILIPPINES)
BEST REAL ESTATE
AGENCY MARKETING
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CONSULTANCY
MARKETING
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CONSULTANCY
HIGHLY COMMENDED
REAL ESTATE AGENCY
Rick Santos
Chairman
[email protected]
Joey Radovan
Vice Chairman
Corporate Agency & Brokerage
[email protected]
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Senior Director
Investments and Capital Markets
[email protected]
Mabel Luna
Director
Valuation and Advisory Services
[email protected]
Nelson Del Mundo
Vice President
Facilities Management
[email protected]
Allan Napoles
Executive Director
Project Management
[email protected]
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BEST LETTINGS AGENCY
PHILIPPINES
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Senior Director/ Director
Global Research and Consultancy
[email protected]
[email protected]
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Executive Director
Property Management
[email protected]
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Director
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This report was prepared by the CBRE Philippines Research Team which forms part of CBRE Global Research and
Consulting – a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research,
econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe.
Disclaimer
8
©2014 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network. CBRE Philippines confirms that information contained herein,
including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we
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