Download Winnipeg`s Diversity and Economic Outlook

 WINNIPEG’S DIVERSITY and ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Diversity Breeds Stability
Winnipeg has one of the most diverse economies of any major city in Canada. Winnipeg’s
aerospace, finance and insurance, transportation, agribusiness, information technology,
furniture and apparel industries provide a solid economic base that serves the community well.
Overall, Winnipeg's diverse economy provides a stable workforce, low unemployment rate and
a cushion against major fluctuations resulting from downturns in the economy.
Winnipeg has the most diversified advanced manufacturing sector in Western Canada, which
ranges from food and beverage to tractors and other farm equipment, municipal and interurban buses to specialty steel products, electrical components, aerospace components,
chemicals, plastics, furniture and much more. Advanced manufacturers can source many of their
inputs from other firms and draw on a large pool of skilled labour; much of this activity is export
oriented. Bus and tractor manufacturers export most of their output, for example, making motor
vehicles one of Manitoba’s largest categories of export.
Winnipeg also has a long history as a major financial centre and is the headquarters of some of
Canada’s most prominent investment firms and insurance companies. Adding to this is
Winnipeg’s historical strength in aerospace and food products manufacturing and
commercialization in functional foods, nutraceuticals, bio-composites and biofuels.
Economic Structure by Major Metropolitan Areas 2014
Hamilton
Vancouver
Montréal
Saskatoon
Winnipeg
Halifax
Toronto
Edmonton
Regina
Calgary
Québec City
Ottawa-Gatineau
0.00
0.95
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.90
0.89
0.88
0.87
0.80
0.77
0.69
0.37
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Diversity Level 1.0 = High 0.0 = Low
1.00
Source: Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2016
Winnipeg Economic Outlook
The Conference Board of Canada projects real GDP growth to hit an eight-year high of 2.5 per
cent or $36.7 billion (2007 dollars) in 2016, up from 2.3 per cent in 2015. Employment growth will
throttle back in 2016 to 1.4 per cent from last year’s 3.5 per cent jump – a 20-year high.
WINNIPEG’S DIVERSITY and ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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A lower Canadian dollar should boost manufacturing exports, lifting manufacturing output
growth to 3.1 per cent in 2016. The construction sector is poised to expand 3.7 per cent in 2016.
A big pullback is expected in residential multiple construction for 2016 to outweigh a jump in
singles starts, trimming total starts by 10 per cent to 3,800 units.
Employment growth in the services sector is forecast to expand 2.4 per cent in 2016. Growth will
remain brisk in finance, insurance, and real estate, the largest services sector, at 3.1 per cent in
2016. For 2016 a 4.8 per cent increase in retail sales will contribute to 2.6 per cent ouput growth
in wholesale and retail trade. Business services is expected to enjoy the fastest growth among
local services industries in 2016, at 3.5 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent in 2015. Personal services
output is forecast to gain 2.8 per cent in 2016. Continued job growth in 2016 will cut the
unemployment rate to 5.6 per cent from a four-year high of 5.9 per cent in 2015.
Key Economic Indicators
2016f
2017f
2018f
GDP at Basic Prices (Millions $ 2007)
36,779
37,661
38,415
2.5
2.4
2.0
1.29
1.32
1.35
1.8
2.3
2.3
33,541
34,736
36,037
3.5
3.6
3.7
Personal Income per Capita ($)
41,707
42,616
43,651
2.2
2.2
2.4
Personal Disposable Income (Millions $)
25,568
26,519
27,471
3.2
3.7
3.6
Personal Disposable Income per Capita ($)
31,793
32,535
33,276
1.8
2.3
2.3
804
815
825
1.3
1.4
1.2
456
463
468
1.0
1.5
1.1
430
437
442
1.2
1.6
1.1
5.6
5.5
5.5
11,616
11,954
12,277
4.8
2.9
2.7
3.8
4.0
3.9
-10.3
5.3
-2.5
(% Change)
Consumer Price Index (2002=1.0)
Personal Income (Millions $)
Total Population ('000)
Labour Force (000)
Employment ('000)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Retail Sales - Winnipeg ($ Millions)
Housing Starts
Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Updated: March 2016