Download BACKDROP MAJLIS Agroteknologi pemangkin transformasi sektor

BACKDROP MAJLIS
Agroteknologi pemangkin transformasi sektor
pertanian dan industri asas tani
1
Our Food,
Our Future
Ahmad Shabery Cheek
Minister of Agriculture and
Agro-based Industry Malaysia
/officialshaberycheek
@shaberyc
INTAN PUBLIC POLICY MINISTERIAL FORUM SERIES 2016
Dewan Seri Baiduri, INTAN Bukit Kiara
19 April 2016
2
Food accompanies
our most special occasions and celebrations
3
Food gives us life, and a source of life’s pleasures
4
5
Farm-to-Table: Food is BIG Business
F&B Services
Crops
RM80
billion
per year
Fisheries
Food Industry Contribution
to GDP, 2014
Source: Laporan KDNK Tahunan Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia
Food
Manufacturing
Livestock
6
…and is said to be
a ‘recession-proof’ business
7
“Food will create far more friends than bullets or
bayonets and all the electronic technology mankind
can devise. Nations can exist without all the modern
gadgets man can conceive--but they won't survive
without food.”
Mark Andrews
US Senator
1982
8
Food is a
Strategic
Diplomatic Tool
for a country
9
California
Arkansas
Texas
Source: USDA http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/rice.aspx
Louisiana
10
Ghana once paid the price for overdependence on
imported rice
11
Food business provides diversity to the economy, making
it more resilient to fluctuations
Ogos 2012
“Chavez's failure to
diversify Venezuela's
economy means that
oil is still its mainstay.
In fact, it accounts for
more than 90% of the
country's foreign
currency inflows.”
Dis 2015
“…used this oil
bonanza to subsidize
his populist, wealthdestroying policies.”
“…each $1 drop in oil
price costs Caracas
$700 million in
government
revenues.”
12
In war, these are not the only
13
measures of a country’s might
Food is a Weapon to cripple a nation
through famine, starvation and deprivation
UK WWI Poster, 1917
USA WWII Poster, 1943
14
In the long term, Food is also used to build the
people’s body and mind
Food safety, national nutrition strategy, food fortification, etc
15
The American Diet
USDA Nutrition Guides
Basic 7 (1943)
Food Guide Pyramid (1992)
MyPyramid (2005)
MyPlate (2011)
16
Japan
Canada
South Korea
Germany
Mexico
17
KEDAULATAN MAKANAN
adalah asas
KEKUATAN NEGARA
Pic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merdeka_Square,_Kuala_Lumpur#/media/File:Dataran_Merdeka_1.jpg
18
Today, it seems that we are capable to
produce almost all of our basic food
TROPICAL TROPICAL
VEGE
FRUITS
POULTRY
BEEF
90%
30%
FISH
RICE
90%
72%
Self Sufficiency Level (SSL) of selected food
Source: MOA Data, 2014
100%
105%
EGGS
120%
LIQUID
MILK
67%
19
Nevertheless, our agrofood trade deficit is
getting larger every year
Agrofood Trade
(RM billion)
34.4
Import
26.7
15.7
36
38.8
42.6
45.4
30.2
18.1
20.5
20.6
22
25.6
27.3
Export
2009
2010
2011
2012
Balance
of Trade -11
-12.1
-13.9
-15.4
Source: MOA Data, 2015
2013
-16.8
2014
-17
2015
-18.1
20
That means, our food supply is exposed to currency
fluctuations…
RM18.1b
Agrofood Trade Deficit
RM27.3b
RM45.4b
eksport
import
…and the value of Ringgit continues to be
under pressure
Source: MOA Data, 2015
21
Tackling Future Challenges:
Examples of policy decisions required
to improve agrofood BoT
and enhance food sovereignty…
22
Rethinking Food Security:
Should we target 100% rice SSL?
Rice SSL
72%
Rice Import
• Pelaburan besar
• Bargaining chip
• Citarasa pengguna utk beras jenis lain
RM2.1 bil
Berapa % yang cukup?
Source: MOA Data, 2014 & 2015
23
Healthier, Stronger Growing Malaysian:
Should we strive towards milk sufficiency?
Milk & Milk
Products
Import
RM2.85 bil
Liquid Milk
Requirement
50 mil lit / yr
Liquid Milk
Production
34 mil lit / yr
Source: MOA Data, 2014 & 2015
24
Feeding our Food:
Is our poultry supply truly secure?
Poultry SSL
105%
Poultry Export
(live & meat)
RM1.05 bil
Source: MOA Data, 2014 & 2015
25
Source: MOA Data, 2014 & 2015
Feeding our Food:
Livestock Feed makes up more than a quarter of
our agrofood trade deficit
2015 Agrofood Trade Deficit
RM18.1 billion
2015 Livestock Feed
Import
Grain Corn
RM3.1 bil
(4 mil
MT)
Soybean Meal
Livestock Feed
RM2.2 bil
RM5.6 billion (30%)
Source: MOA Data, 2015
26
Our neighbours have long realised
the importance of self-sufficiency in livestock feed
Indonesia, 9.6 mil MT
Philippines, 7.8 mil MT
Playen, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta
Vietnam, 6 mil MT
Bukidnon, Northern Mindanao
Thailand, 4.7 mil MT
Lào Cai, Northern Vietnam
Phetchabun Provice
Corn production, 2015 estimate
Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=corn
27
28
TOWARDS CORN
SELF-SUFFICIENCY
FOR MALAYSIA
An Exploratory Public Policy Inquiry
29
Towards Corn Self-Sufficiency:
How much land is required?
Demand: 4 million MT per year (expected to rise annually)
Estimated Yield: 7 MT per ha
Planted area required: 571,000 ha
Tanah Terbiar
Sawah Padi luar jelapang
120,000 ha
228,000 ha
Rizab Padang Ragut
???? ha
Other possible
land?
30
Towards Corn Self-Sufficiency:
How to ensure allocation and appropriate use
of the land?
31
Towards Corn Self-Sufficiency:
Building a stable and profitable ecosystem to
attract involvement and investment
Illustrative value chain
INPUT
PRODUCTION
COLLECTION
PROCESSING
TRADING
Seed
Growing
Collection
Milling
Wholesale
Fertilizer
Harvesting
Selling
Grading
Retail
Equipment
& machinery
Drying
Selling
Export
Financing
Insurance
Transport
Storage
It’s a Blue Ocean industry, full of untapped opportunities!
32
33
Recap…
1. Food is a strategic asset for any country – an
apparatus of peace, an ammunition of war
2. A strong agriculture sector not only feeds the
people, but also provides resilience and growth
to the economy
3. A realignment of our thinking on food security
policy is required, to ensure Malaysia is truly
self-sufficient and in control of its sovereignty
34
Terima Kasih
/officialshaberycheek
@shaberyc
35