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EcoMod2010 International Conference on Economic Modeling Istanbul, turkey July 7-10, 2010 Sponsored by: Istanbul Bilgi University Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Sabanci University The World Bank Hendyplan 2 3 4 CONFERENCE ROOMS The sessions will take place in the Building E3 located on the Santral Kampus of the Bilgi University Plenary session: room E3-101 Session A: room E3-107 Session B: room E3-104 Session C: room E3-105 Session D: room E3-106 Session E: room E3-201 Session F: room E3-214 REFRESHMENT BREAKS AND LUNCHES Refreshment breaks will take place in the hall next to the conference rooms. Lunches will take place in the ‘So Cafe’ building which is opposite to the E-3 SOCIAL EVENTS PROGRAM Wednesday, July 7th 18:00 – 20:00 Welcome Reception at the Bilgi University Friday, July 9th 19:00 Gala Dinner at Feriye Restaurant Saturday, July 10th 19:30 Boat Cruise and Dinner on the Bosphorus 5 Wednesday July 7th: 8:15-9:00 Registration 9:00-9:15 Welcome and Opening Sessions (Room E3-101) Durmuş ÖZDEMIR (Co-chair, EcoMod and Bilgi University) Halil GÜVEN (Rector, Bilgi University) Ali BAYAR (President, EcoMod) 9:15-10:45 Plenary Session: Financial Crisis and Global Financial Regulation Chair: Hasan ERSEL (Sabanci Universitesi) Yilmaz AKYUZ (UNCTAD - retired) Deepak NAYAR (Jawaharlal Nehru University) Mehmet YORUKOGLU (Vice Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey) 10:45-11:00 Refreshment Break 11:00-12:30 Parallel Sessions Session A: Developing countries (Room E3-107) Chair: Jean Francois BRUN Policies for Meeting Future Water Needs in Mexican Cities Alejandro SALAZAR-ADAMS, Nicolás PINEDA-PABLOS SADC EPAs with the EU: the Right or a Blight Way for Development Rehab OSMAN IMF´s Programs and Public Revenue in Sub-Saharan African Economies - Which Role for Institutions? - An Econometric Analysis on Macro Panel Data Jean Francois BRUN, Gérard CHAMBAS, Bertrand LAPORTE 6 Session B: Macroeconometric modeling (Room E3-103) Chair: Nicholas FRANGOS A Empirical Assessment of the Feldstein and Horioka Literature Yannick BINEAU Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets – The Role of Economic Sentiments Joscha BECKMANN, Ansgar BELKE Occupational Pension Funds in Greece Nicholas FRANGOS Session C: Regional Modeling (Room E3-105) Chair: D´Artis KANCS Regional Disparities Under Different Types of Cohesion Policy Marek RADVANSKÝ, Tomas DOMONKOS Economic Activity of Korea by Region - Judged by Coincident Index of Economic Activity Jiyong HWANG EU Cohesion Policy: Assessing the Impact of Ten-T Infrastructure Investment with a Combined Run of New Economic Geography and Transport Models D´Artis KANCS, Andries BRANDSMA, Olga IVANOVA Session D: Monetary issues (Room E3-106) Chair: Søren HOVE RAVN Revitalizing Reserve Requirement in Banking Model: An Industrial Organization Approach Iman GUNADI Friedman Meets the Joneses: A Model of Essential Money with Consumption Externalities Patrik RYFF Has the Fed Reacted Asymmetrically to Stock Prices Søren HOVE RAVN 7 Session E: Finance (Room E3-201) Chair: Luca GATTINI Financial Intermediaries, Leverage Ratios, and Business Cycles Yasin MIMIR Asset Pricing in the Presence of Background Risk Andrei SEMENOV Forecasting and Assessing Euro Area House Prices Through the Lens of Key Fundamentals Luca GATTINI, Paul HIEBERT Session F: Energy and environmental policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Laia PIÉ DOLS How Does Economic Theory Explain the Hubbert Peak Oil Model? Frederic REYNES, Samuel OKULLO, Marjan HOFKES Modelling Consumption-Based CO2-Emissions and Carbon Leakage with the Global Resource Accounting Model GRAM Kirsten S. WIEBE, Martin BRUCKNER, Stefan GILJUM, Christian LUTZ Modelling a Reduction of Greenhouse Gases emissions in the Catalan Economy: The NAMEA Approach Laia PIÉ DOLS, Maria LLOP LLOP 12:30-14:00 Lunch 8 14:00-15:30 Parallel Sessions Session A: Trade Issues (Room E3-107) Chair: Sangeeta KHORANA Credit Constraints, Heterogeneity of Firms and International Trade: An Empirical Analysis of Exports Determinants for India Madhu BALA Endogenous Liberalization and Within-Country Inequality Nejat ANBARCI, Mehmet ULUBASOGLU The Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers on Export Strategies: Evidence from India Sangeeta KHORANA, Thanos VEROUSIS, Nicholas PERDIKIS Session B: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room E3-103) Chair: Francesco FELICI Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Dynamics: The Case of Turkey Huseyin KAYA A Dynamic Institutional Analysis with a Macroeconomic Model Jean-Guy LORANGER, Gérard BOISMENU Macroeconomic Modelling and Policy Implications: an Assessment for Italy Using ITEM and QUEST Fabio DI DIO, Barbara ANNICCHIARICO, Francesco FELICI, Francesco NUCCI Session C: Public Finance (Room E3-105) Chair: Lucian-Liviu ALBU Responses of the Polish Economy to Demand and Supply Shocks Under Alternative Fiscal Rules Magdalena ZACHLOD-JELEC, Piotr KARP Market Power and Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries Luis F. COSTA, Antonio AFONSO A Model to Simulate the Long-Term Dynamics of Public Debt Lucian-Liviu ALBU 9 Session D: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room E3-106) Chair: Marcin KOLASA Government Debt and Macroeconomic Effects: Analysis with Real-Financial CGE Model Imene BENNOUR, Tahar ABDESSALEM Real Financial Models in Argentina Dario DEBOWICZ Real Convergence and Its Illusions Marcin KOLASA Session E: Finance (Room E3-201) Chair: Ahmet AYSAN Testing Linearity in Term Structures Chiara PERONI Structured Portfolio Analysis Under SharpeOmega Ratio Rania HENTATI, Jean-Luc PRIGENT Macroeconomic, Sector Specific and Bank Specific Determinants of Net Interest Rate Margin: What Matters More for an Emerging Market Economy? Ahmet AYSAN, Cagri HUSNU DALGIC, Murat DEMIRCI Session F: Energy and Environmental Policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Ulrike LEHR Exogenous Income Determination in a SAM Model: the Catalan Economy towards the "20-20-20 European Directive" Laia PIÉ DOLS, Maria LLOP LLOP Energy Efficiency Trends and Policies: Cross-Country Comparison in Europe Duygu CEYLAN, E. Nur Ozkan GUNAY 20% by 2020 - Energy Efficiency in Germany Ulrike LEHR, Martin PEHNT, Christian LUTZ, Barabara SCHLOMANN, Friedrich SEEFELDT 15:30-16:00 Refreshment Break 10 16:00-18:00 Parallel Sessions Session A: Global Economic Crisis (Room E3-107) Chair: André DRAMAIS Beyond the crisis: Prospects for transition economies Zsolt DARVAS Forecasting Medium-Term Distributional Effects of the Economic Crisis: A CGE-Microsimulation Approach Michael FEIL Measuring the Impacts of Recent Global Crisis on IRAN’s Non-Oil Export Economy (28 Subsectors) Amin MALEKI Is Globalisation Increasing the Depth of Growth Recession? André DRAMAIS Session B: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room E3-103) Chair: Amela HUBIC The Dynamics of Inflation: A Study of a Large Number of Countries Georgios KOURETAS, Mark E. WOHAR Propagation of Inflationary Shocks Michael PEDERSEN Time-Varying Coefficient Methods to Measure Inflation Persistence Balazs VARGA, Zsolt DARVAS The Effects of Inflation on General Government Accounts Amela HUBIC, Francisco DE CASTRO 11 Session C: Public Finance (Room E3-105) Chair: Karl FARMER The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth and Development in Developing Countries: Nigeria as a Case Study Bosede Comfort OLOPADE, David Oyeyemi OLOPADE Fiscal Sustainability in Oil Producing Countries Slaven MICKOVIC, Ali BAYAR, Rachid SBIA The Response of Private Consumption to Different Public Spending Categories:VAR Evidence from UK Luigi MARATTIN, Simone SALOTTI Public Debt Sustainability, Exchange Rates and Country-Specific Saving Rates Karl FARMER Session D: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room E3-106) Chair: Motaz KHORSHID Scaling Up Infrastructure Spending in the Philippines: A CGE Top-Down Bottom-Up Microsimulation Approach Luc SAVARD The Role of Water Sector in Iranian Economy: A CGE Modeling Approach Ali YOUSEFI, Sadegh KHALILIAN, Mohammad Hadi HAJIAN Impact of Community-based Tourism in a Village Economy in Thailand: An analysis with VCGE model Komsan SURIYA An ICT Economy Wide Interaction Social Accounting Matrix for Egypt Motaz KHORSHID, Asaad EL-SADEK 12 Session E: Finance (Room E3-201) Chair: Eleni ZAFEIRIOU Testing Stock Market Convergence: A Non-linear Factor Approach Burcu ERDOGAN, Guglielmo MARIA CAPORALE, Vladimir KUZIN Modeling Stock Returns in the South African Stock Exchange: a Nonlinear Approach Lumengo BONGA-BONGA Non Linearities and Chaos in Stock Price Behavior of Greek oil Sector; The Case of Hellenic Petroleum S.A. Eleni ZAFEIRIOU, Theodoros KOUTROUMANIDIS, Chrysovalantis MALESIOS, Androniki KATARACHIA Session F: Energy and Environmental Policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Ramon KEY The Analysis of the Impact of Oil Prices Shock on the Poor Relied on the Existing Distribution of Income Pattern Sofyan SYAHNUR Oil, Development, and Corruption: Towards an Applied General Equilibrium Model to Investigate Oil Revenue Spending in Chad David GARBER Business Cycles and Oil Rich Economies – Hodrick Prescott Filtering Of Oil Revenues for Macroeconomic Modelling in Nigeria Fred IKLAGA A CGE model for Venezuela: an Analysis of the Impact of the Oil Sector Ramon KEY, Ali BAYAR, Steven FARFAN, Frederic DRAMAIS, Masudi OPESE 18:00-20:00 Welcome Reception 13 Thursday July 8th 9:00-10:30 Parallel Sessions Session A: Forecasting and Projection Methods (Room E3-107) Chair: Mehmet GENÇER A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Public Transport Demand Daldoul MANEL, Ali ESSAGGAY, Ahlem DAKHLAOUI Euro Area GDP Forecast Using Large Survey Dataset - A Random Forest Approach Olivier BIAU, Angela D´ELIA Agent-Based Modeling of Economic Systems: The EURACE Project Experience Mehmet GENÇER, Bülent ÖZEL Session B: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room E3-103) Chair: Boriss SILIVERSTOVS Distortionary Tax Instruments and Implementable Monetary Policy Luigi MARATTIN, Massimiliano MARZO, Paolo ZAGAGLIA Does “The” Fiscal Multiplier Exist? Zoltan JAKAB, Daniel BAKSA, Szilárd BENK Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Pros and Cons from a Swiss Perspective Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, Andres FRICK, Michael GRAFF, Jochen HARTWIG 14 Session C: Miscellaneous (Room E3-105) Chair: Aylin SECKIN ‘The Old World Wine’ and Its Place in the Anatolian Economy Durmuş ÖZDEMIR, Harald SCHMIDBAUER Understanding Homeland Security: Theory and UK Evidence Kerim Peren ARIN, Otto. F. REICH, Oliver LORZ, Nicola SPAGNOLO Accounting for the Heterogeneity in Inter-generational Links in Educational Attainment Across Europe Cem BASLEVENT, Hasan KIRMANOGLU Dynamic Price Dependence of Canadian and World Art Markets: An Empirical Analysis Douglas HODGSON, Aylin SECKIN Session D: Monetary Issues (Room E3-106) Chair: Maria Teresa VALDERRAMA Fear of Floating and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Egypt Hoda SELIM Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area Luca ONORANTE, Guglielmo MARIA CAPORALE, Paolo PAESANI Inflation Uncertainty: What Can Behavioural Economics Teach Us? Maria Teresa VALDERRAMA, Ernest GNAN, Johannes LANGTHALLER 15 Session E: Finance (Room E3-201) Chair: Ionut PURICA A Reassessment of Competition in the Credit Card Market by Introducing Liquidity Cost Measures: Evidence from an Emerging Economy Ahmet AYSAN, G. GULSUN AKIN, Denada BORICI, Levent YILDIRAN Gross and Net Loan Flows Under Search and Matching Frictions in Labour and Credit Markets Giuseppe CICCARONE, Francesco GIULI, Danilo LIBERATI Predicting Discontinuity in the Decision to Allocate Funds to Credit Memes with a Fokker-Planck Equation Based Model Ionut PURICA Session F: Energy and Environmental Policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Luc SAVARD Bioenergy Production in Finland and its Effects on Regional Growth and Employment Antti SIMOLA, Jouko KINNUNEN, Hannu TÖRMÄ, Jukka KOLA Quantitative Assessment of Biofuel Promotion Policy in India: A Dynamic CGE Approach Satoshi KOJIMA Economic and Distributional Impact of Bio-Fuels in Mali Dorothée BOCCANFUSO, Massa COULABY, Govinda R TIMILSINA, Luc SAVARD 10:30-11:00 Refreshment Break 11:00-12:30 Plenary Session: International Trade Chair: Can ERBIL Robert KOOPMAN (Chief Economist and Director, Office of Economics United States International Trade Commission - USITC) James ANDERSON (Boston College) 12:30-14:00 Lunch 14:00-15:30 Parallel Sessions 16 Session A: Impact and Scenario Analysis (Room E3-107) Chair: Dorothée BOCCANFUSO The Growing Income Inequality in China: Evidence, Causes, and Policy Choices Baotai WANG Determinants of Incoming Cross-Border M&A: Evidence from European Transition Economies Josipa VIŠIĆ, Blanka ŠKRABIĆ A New Avenue to Understand the Nutritional Health of the Youths in Guinea Dorothée BOCCANFUSO, Ohiniba BRUCE Session B: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room E3-103) Chair: Peter MCADAM Why are Some Prices Stickier than Others? Firm-data Evidence on Price Adjustment Lags Fernando MARTINS, Daniel A. DIAS, J.M.C. SANTOS SILVA, Carlos ROBALO MARQUES Food Price Pass-Through in the Euro Area: the Role of Asymmetries and Non-Linearities Luca ONORANTE, Gianluigi FERRUCCI, Rebeca JIMÉNEZRODRÍGUEZ Technology, Utilization and Inflation: Re-assessing the New Keynesian Fundament Peter MCADAM, Alpo WILLMAN 17 Session C: Growth (Room E3-105) Chair: Nihal BAYRAKTAR Government Size Threshold and Economic Growth in Iran Esmaiel ABOUNOORI, Younes NADEMI Foreign Aid and Its Effect on Per-Capita Income (Growth) in Recipient Countries: Pitfalls and Findings from a Time Series Perspective Felicitas NOWAK-LEHMANN D., Inma MARTÍNEZ-ZARZOSO, Dierk HERZER, Stephan KLASEN, Axel DREHER Romes without Empires: Urban Concentration, Political Competition, and Economic Growth Cem KARAYALCIN, Mehmet Ali ULUBASOGLU How Can Public Spending Help You Grow? An Empirical Analysis for Developing Countries Nihal BAYRAKTAR, Blanca MORENO-DODSON Session D: Tax Policy (Room E3-106) Chair: Hans KREMERS Modelling the Potential Economic Effects of Tax Policy Reform in Nigeria: Simulation Analysis Using the Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Patterson EKEOCHA ZEW TaxCoMM – A Corporate Tax Microsimulation Model. Concept and Application to the 2008 German Corporate Tax Reform Jost HECKEMEYER, Katharina FINKE, Christoph SPENGEL The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments Hans KREMERS, Andreas LOESCHEL 18 Session E: Finance (Room E3-201) Chair: Matthias SYDOW Effects of Tax Policy Announcements in the Athens Stock Exchange Anastasios SARAIDARIS, Stella KARAGIANNI, Catherine KYRTSOU Fiscal Policy, Housing and Stock Prices António AFONSO, Ricardo SOUSA What Drives Returns to Euro Area Housing? Matthias SYDOW, Paul HIEBERT Session F: Energy and Environmental Policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Angi RÖSCH An Empirical Assessment of the Effectiveness of Oil Taxes Darko JUS, Christian BEERMANN, Markus ZIMMER Forecasting the Conditional Volatility of Spot and Futures Oil Prices with Structural Breaks and Long Memory Models Amine LAHIANI, Mohamed EL HEDI AROURI, Duc KHUONG NGUYEN Effects of Weekly Inventory Data Releases on Crude Oil Spot Prices Angi RÖSCH, Harald SCHMIDBAUER 15:30-16:00 Refreshment Break 19 16:00-18:00 Parallel Sessions Session A: Global Economic Crisis (Room E3-107) Chair: Iskandar SIMORANGKIR Have Foreign Banks Contributed to the Spread of the Global Financial Crisis to Saudi Arabia? Mahmoud HADDAD, Sam HAKIM The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on Migrant Workers among MENA Countries Doaa Mohamed AYMAN, Doaa SALMAN The Role of Fiscal Stimulus and Monetary Easing in Indonesian Economy during Global Financial Crisis: Financial Computable General Equilibrium Approach Iskandar SIMORANGKIR, Justina ADAMANTI Session B: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room E3-103) Chair: Marek RADVANSKÝ Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker and Firm Heterogeneity Pedro PORTUGAL, Anabela CARNEIRO, Paulo GUIMARÃES MEMBER: Multi-Country Euro Area Model with Boundedly Estimated Rationality Alistair DIEPPE, Alberto GONZÁLEZ PANDIELLA, Stephen HALL, Alpo WILLMAN Modelling the Impact of Postponed Implementation of EU Structural Funds Marek RADVANSKÝ, Karol FRANK 20 Session C: Miscellaneous (Room E3-105) Chair: Panos TSAKLOGLOU Asymmetries in Wealth Effect: the UK Households Evidence Ana MARTINEZ CANETE, Elena MÁRQUEZ-DE-LA-CRUZ, Inés PÉREZ-SOBA A Non-Balanced Survey-Based Indicator to Track Industrial Production Olivier BIAU, Angela D´ELIA Once Poor, Always Poor? Do Initial Conditions Matter? Evidence from the ECHP Panos TSAKLOGLOU, Eirini ANDRIOPOULOU Session D: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room E3-106) Chair: Motaz KHORSHID Turkey, the EU and the 21st Century Economic Scenarios; a Multi Region Dynamic CGE Model Analysis Durmuş ÖZDEMIR, Ali BAYAR SAM-Based Accounting Modeling and Analysis- Sudan 2000 Azharia ELBUSHRA, Ibrahim EL-DUKHERI, Ali A. SALIH, Aga M. ELZAKI Equilibrium Prices Model for Sectors of Azerbaijan Economy Based on Input-Output Tables Yadulla HASANLI, Fakhri HASANOV, Malahat MANSIMLI Analysis of the Millennium Development Goals for Egypt - Using an Extended Economy Wide Simulation Model Motaz KHORSHID, Hans LOFGREN, Ahmed KAMALY, Sohair ABOU EL-EENEIN 21 Session E: Labor Market Issues (Room E3-201) Chair: Ana I. MORO-EGIDO Characteristics of the New Immigrants: A Recent Analysis of Employment and Educational Mismatch Jose RAMOS, Maria TERESA BLAZQUEZ Estimating the Impact of Tunisian Training Programs on Wage, Using a Simultaneous Equations Model with Self-Selectivity Rihab BELLAKHAL, Mohamed-Badrane MAHJOUB Asymmetries in the Pay-Penalty from Skill Mismatches in Europe: How Different is the Effect on High Educated Workers Ana I. MORO-EGIDO, Elena BARCENA Session F: Energy and Environmental Policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Darko JUS Integrating an Input-Output-Model with an Actor-Orientated, Technology Based Bottom-Up Approach to Support Clean Air Policy in Germany Rebecca ILSEN, Magnus FRÖHLING, Frank SCHULTMANN Linking Dynamic GTAP-E with Technology Bundle Model and TIMES-FRI Model Hiroshi HAMASAKI, Truong PHUOC TRUONG Resource Competition and Climate Change Darko JUS, Christian BEERMANN, Markus ZIMMER 22 Friday July 9th 9:00-10:30 Parallel Sessions Session A: Trade Issues (Room E3-107) Chair: Jean Louis BRILLET Tariffs and Imports Mis-invoicing Under Oligopoly Amit BISWAS, Sarbajit SENGUPTA Analysing the Sensitivity of Simulated Pattern of Trade to Functional Form Choices Santosh JOSHI, Kevin HANRAHAN, Eithne MURPHY Will Trade Development Reduce the Gap Between Chinese Regions ? Some Evidence Based on a Regional Model Jean Louis BRILLET, Mathieu BELLON,Violaine FAUBERT, Mathilde LEBRUN, Guillaume ZEGANADIN Session B: Agriculture Issues (Room E3-103) Chair: Zuzana KRISTKOVA Economy-Wide Impact of Forest Plantation Development in Laos Using a Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach Somvang PHIMMAVONG, Ian FERGUSON, Barbara OZARSKA Policy Impact on Farm Economy, Ecology and Land Use: an Ecological-Economic Modelling Approach Szvetlana ACS, Martin DALLIMER, Nick HANLEY, Kevin GASTON Impact of Common Agricultural Policy Reform on the Czech Economy – a General Equilibrium Approach Zuzana KRISTKOVA 23 Session C: Growth (Room E3-105) Chair: António AFONSO Curse or Blessing? Natural Resources and Human Development Jose PINEDA, Francisco RODRIGUEZ Linking Public Investment Programs and Macroeconomic Models: Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements Nihal BAYRAKTAR, Pierre-Richard AGÉNOR, Emmanuel PINTO MOREIRA Public and Private Inputs in Aggregate Production and Growth: A Cross-country Efficiency Approach António AFONSO, Miguel ST. AUBYN Session D: Regional Modeling (Room E3-106) Chair: Caterina FERRARIO Relative House Price Dynamics Across Euro Area and US Cities: Convergence or Divergence? Moreno ROMA, Paul HIEBERT What Effect Exerts Sequencing of International Liberalization on Regional Financial Stability? Aidi WAFA, Mohamed AYADI Agglomeration, Knowledge Spillovers, and Innovation: An Empirical Study of Finnish and Swedish Firms Yih-Luan CHYI, Kuei-Yen LIAO What Happens to Interregional Redistribution Upon Fiscal Decentralisation Reforms? Evidence from the Italian NHS Caterina FERRARIO, Alberto ZANARDI 24 Session E: Labor Market Issues (Room E3-201) Chair: Lilian DE MENEZES Flexible Work Arrangements (FWAs) in Greece Ioulia BESSA, Lilian De MENEZES, David SIMS Labor Market and Income Effects of a Legal Minimum Wage in Germany Viktor STEINER, Kai-Uwe MUELLER Can a Gift-Exchange Model Explain a Link Between Flexible Working Arrangements and Organizational Performance? Lilian DE MENEZES Session F: Energy and Environmental Policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Aziz ELBEHRI Border Tax Adjustments to Negate the Economic Impact of an Electricity Generation Tax Reyno SEYMORE, Margaret MABUGU, Jan VAN HEERDEN Potential Energy Sources in Electricity Generation: The Case of Turkey Hasan Ali GONCU, E. Nur Ozkan GUNAY Biofuel Sustainability and Supply Scenarios: A Global CGE Analysis Aziz ELBEHRI 10:30-11:00 Refreshment Break 11:00-12:30 Plenary Session: Energy and Climate Change Chair: Ali Bayar Economics of Climate Change Adaptation: Uncertainty and LongRun Country Models Sherman ROBINSON, Channing ARNDT, Dirk WILLENBOCKEL (Institute of Development Studies), James THURLOW (UNU-WIDER) Russia’s Natural Gas Export Potential up to 2050 Sergey PALTSEV (MIT) 12:30-14:00 Lunch 25 14:00-16:00 Parallel Sessions Session A: Trade Issues (Room E3-107) Chair: Josep Lluís CARRION-I-SILVESTRE Modeling the Interaction Between Industries and Services Sectors´ Agglomeration in the European Union Astrid KRENZ Trends of Chinese-Spanish Commercial Relationships: a Future Outlook Rouhia NOOMENE External Imbalances in a Monetary Union. Does the Lawson Doctrine Apply to Europe? Josep Lluís CARRION-I-SILVESTRE, Mariam CAMARERO, Josep LLUÍS CARRION-I-SILVESTRE, Cecilio TAMARIT Session B: Agricultural Issues (Room E3-103) Chair: Mario FORTUNA The Effect of a Government-Subsidized Staple Food Chain on Retail Food Prices: The Case of MERCAL in Venezuela Adriana ARREAZA-COLL, Ana LUCÍA HERRERA RIERA, Andrea RAMÍREZ BECK Sustainable Irrigated Agriculture in Texas through Conservation of Ogallala Aquifer Lal ALMAS, Rachna TEWARI, Stephen H. AMOSSON Estimating the Impacts of Eliminating Cost-reducing and Capacity-enhancing Fisheries Subsidies on the Small Island Economy of the Azores Mario FORTUNA, Sammer REGE, Natacha DENTES DE CARVALHO 26 Session C: Immigration (Room E3-105) Chair: Murat GENC Problems and Prospects of Nepalese Students in UK: Brain Drain, Immigration or Global Network Keshab Raj BHATTARAI A Utility Function Based Approach Towards the Modeling of Migration in Village Equilibrium Models Uli KLEINWECHTER Migration and Tourism Flows to New Zealand Murat GENC Session D: Monetary Issues (Room E3-106) Chair: Akhis HUTABARAT The Emergence and Survival of Inflation Expectations Luca ONORANTE, Marco J. LOMBARDI Interest Rate Pass-Through: Interactions, Asymmetries, and Heterogeneities Manuel Duarte S. ROCHA Banking and Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Morocco Rafaela PIZARRO-BARCELÓ, Angel GARCIA-ORTIZ Monetary Transmission of Elongated Shock to the Risk Premium Akhis HUTABARAT 27 Session E: Labor Market Issues (Room E3-201) Chair: Ignacio Tavares ARAUJO JR Sources of Unemployment Fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the Last Decade Antonio RIBBA Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment in the Belgian Regions Dirk HOORELBEKE The Effect of Civilian Unemploment on Reenlistment Decision in Turkish Armed Forces Nebile KORUCU GUMUSOGLU, Julide YILDIRIM, Semsettin KARASU The Wage Cost of Unemployment Duration: Evidences for the Brazilian Economy Ignacio Tavares ARAUJO JR, Paulo AGUIAR DO MONTE Session F: Energy and Environmental Policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Adolf STROOMBERGEN Can Reserve Additions in Mature Crude Oil Provinces Attenuate Peak Oil Samuel OKULLO, Frederic REYNES The Green Paradox and the Choice of Capacity Darko JUS, Marc GRONWALD, Markus ZIMMER Modeling the Transition to Low-Carbon Economy in Poland Maciej BUKOWSKI, Pawel KOWAL General Equilibrium Analysis of Bio-Energy Options Adolf STROOMBERGEN, Peter HALL 19:00 - Gala Dinner 28 Saturday July 10th: 9:00-10:30 Parallel Sessions Session A: Trade Issue (Room E3-107) Chair: Keshab Raj BHATTARAI Human Capital Formation and the Linkage between Trade and Poverty: The Cases of Costa Rica and Nicaragua Hugo ROJAS-ROMAGOSA, Luis RIVERA Poverty Impacts of Trade Integration with the EU: Lessons for Ecuador Veronika KULMER, Sara WONG Trade and Poverty in South Asia Keshab Raj BHATTARAI Session B: Agricultural Issues (Room E3-103) Chair: Sushila KAUL Impact of Trade Liberalization on Farm Profitability – Any Adverse Impact Leading to Farmers Loosing their Income in India? Kattery Nanjundiah SELVARAJ, R. SENTHIL KUMAR Comparative Advantage Analysis of the Crops Production in the Agricultural Farming Systems in Sudan Raga Moahmed ELZAKI, Eltighani MIRGHANI ELAMIN, Shams ELDEIN H. AHMED, Ali MUSA EISSA, Azharia ABDELBAGHI ELBUSHA Agricultural Credit Cooperatives of India Sushila KAUL 29 Session C: Growth (Room E3-105) Chair: Jakub GROWIEC In Dubio, Pro CES: Technical Progress Specification and the Elasticity of Substitution Miguel LEON-LEDESMA, Peter MCADAM, Alpo WILLMAN Appropriate IPRs, Human Capital Composition and Economic Growth Fabio MANCA Concentration of Talent and Regional Growth: Empirical Evidence from Spanish Autonomous Communities Burhan Can KARAHASAN, Ebru KERIMOGLU On the Measurement of Technological Progress Across Countries Jakub GROWIEC Session D: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room E3-106) Chair: Manuel KALLWEIT The Role of Two Interest Rates in the Intertemporal CA Model Michal RUBASZEK Public versus Private Education with Risky Human Capital Fabian KINDERMANN Pension Reform with Variable Retirment Age Manuel KALLWEIT, Hans FEHR, Fabian KINDERMANN Session E: Labor Market Issues (Room E3-201) Chair: Pascale PETIT Human Capital and Regional Wage Gaps Enrique LOPEZ-BAZO, Elisabet MOTELLON Conservatism and Female Labour Force Participation in Turkey Idil GOKSEL Race and Sex Discrimination in Hiring: Results of a Field Experiment Pascale PETIT, Emmanuel DUGUET, Yannick L’HORTY, Loïc DU PARQUET, Florent SARI 30 Session F: Energy and Environmental Policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Karl STEININGER Costs of National Climate Ambitions and the Role of Technological Adaptations Taran FÆHN, Karl JACOBSEN, Birger STRØM Prospects for Climate Policy After Copenhagen? A Welfare Analysis of Bottom-Up Approaches in Interdependent Economies Karl FARMER, Birgit BEDNAR-FRIEDL A CGE Analysis of Climate Policy Options After Copenhagen: Bottom-up Approaches, Border Tax Adjustments, and Carbon Leakage Birgit BEDNAR-FRIEDL, Thomas SCHINKO, Karl STEININGER 10:30-11:00 Refreshment Break 11:00-12:30 Parallel Sessions Session A: Trade Issues (Room E3-107) Chair: Knud MUNK Determinants of Specialization and the Role of Trade Costs Serge SHIKHER The Income Distributional Effect of Export Tax of Indonesian Palm Oil Sectors on Various Aspects of Indonesian Economy: Social Accounting Matrix Analysis Ambiyah ABDULLAH Optimal Border Taxes in Developing Countries: On the Importance of a Large Informal Sector Knud MUNK 31 Session B: Macroeconometric modeling (Room E3-103) Chair: Igor LEBRUN Modeling Trends, Cyclical Movements and Turning Points of the Chinese Economy Harry WU, Ataman OZYILDIRIM Estimating Small Scale Macroeconometric Model for Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Approach Adebayo ADEBIYI, Charles N.O. MORDI A Macro-econometric Model for the Economy of Lesotho Igor LEBRUN, Ludovic DOBBELAERE Session C: Monetary Issues (Room E3-105) Chair: Harald SCHMIDBAUER Has Egypt’s Monetary Policy Changed After the Float? Hoda SELIM Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kong´s Currency Board Nicole GLANEMANN, Michael FUNKE, Yu-Fu CHEN Monetary Authorities and Exchange Rate Volatility: Turkey and Other Cases Harald SCHMIDBAUER, Ece DEMIREL Session D: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room E3-106) Chair: Grégory LEVIEUGE Firms´ Entry, Monetary Policy and the International Business Cycle Lilia CAVALLARI The Interaction of Formal and Informal Financial Sectors in QuasiEmerging Market Economies Harold NGALAWA Which Policy-Mix to Mitigate the Effects of the Financial Heterogeneity in a Monetary union? Grégory LEVIEUGE, Cristina BADARAU-SEMENESCU 32 Session E: Tax Policy (Room E3-201) Chair: Enrico MARCHETTI Should We Care About the Composition of Tax Based Stimulus Packages? Kerim Peren ARIN, Otto F. REICH, Peter H. HELLES A Simple "Public Debt-Deflation" Theory: Leeper revisited Michel GUILLARD, Rym ALOUI Indeterminacy, Underground Activities and Tax Evasion Enrico MARCHETTI, Francesco BUSATO, Bruno CHIARINI Session F: Energy and Environmental Policy (Room E3-214) Chair: Kenichi MATSUMOTO Can Carbon Taxes Be Progressive? Yazid DISSOU, Muhammad SHAHID SIDDIQUI Environmental and Economic Effects of Carbon Tax Hassan MOEENNEMATI Analysis of Economic and Environmental Impacts of CO2 Abatement in Japan Applying a CGE Model with Knowledge Investment Kenichi MATSUMOTO, Azusa OKAGAWA 12:30 – 13:15 Closing Plenary Session: Spatial Econometrics Chair: Nebile KORUCU GUMUSOGLU Badi BALTAGI (Syracuse University) Closing Address Can ERBIL (EcoMod and Brandeis University) 13:15 – 14:00 Lunch 19:30 - Boat Cruise and Dinner on the Bosphorus