Download A voyage into the future of Indre Østfold

A voyage into the future of Indre
Østfold
Presentation of a Scenario Planning Project
Martin Kruse og Lars Ueland Kobro
This presentation supplements the report,
A voyage into the future of Indre
Østfold
TF notat nr. 9/2011
Lars Ueland Kobro
Free PDF Download at:
www.telemarksforsking.no
(Only available in Norwegian)
Indre Østfold is the region in
the south eastern part of
Norway and borders Sweden:
1 – 2 hours drive from Oslo by
car or train.
10 municipalities, no urban
center.
Constitutes approx. half of the
greater Østfold region.
Ca. 58 000 inhabitants
The project is based on the reseach and data gathered and
documented in TF-notat 41:2010
”Indre Østfold: Economic development and degree of
attraction”
Settlements
Development
Businesses
Visitors
Attracting and retaining new residents is the
objective of all of Norway’s regions.
Population
Nat. Pop. Inc.
All important initiatives are related to
regional attractiveness, visits by tourists or
business development. The sum total of
initiatives is the effectiveness of a region's
ability to keep its citizens and attract new
ones.
Business
development
Attractivness for
visitors
Image,
reputation,
branding
Nature &
history
Service
Innovasion, R&D
Clusters &
network
Migration
Settlement
Jobs
Residence
attractiveness
Residential
building
Rammevilkår
Commutors
Cafe´s
restaurant=
Meating places,
A voyage in 3 stages:
30 partisipants from private
and public sector.
3 workshops:
Take-Off
One half-day session
4. april 2011 – ½ dag
Flying High
One day, eight-hour session
11. april 2011
Touch-Down
One half-day session
2. mai 2011
Viewpoint:: 2050
Viewpoint
Foresight
KNOWLEDGE - PROCESS
AND FANTASY
Contractor and head of project :
The county of Østfold, in co-oporation with Indre Østfold Regional
council and the municipalities of Indre Østfold, together with Trans In
Form.
Project management :Telemarksforsking in coolaboration with The
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (DK)
Halden og
Aremark
1
All regions in Østfold
are more attractive than
their job development
would imply
Indre Østfold
Attractiveness
People live in Østfold
and are moving to
Østfold in significant
numbers, while working
and commuting into
Oslo
Mosseregionen
Nedre
Glomma
42
83
83
42 NM
Business
1
Indre Østfold’s proximity to Oslo is of great importance for
the region’s position on the national business (NM) and
attractiveness benchmarking indices.
17.06.2011
Knut Vareide
9
First assignment:
?
?
DRIVING FORCES
Identify driving
forces
Identification of driving forces
and sorting out uncertainties
How certain are we that the
changes will come?
To what extent will the changes
affect Indre Østfold?
Low degree
High degree
Certain
Changes that
affect
surroundings
Important
changes
Uncertain
Uncertain low
relevance
Relevant
uncertainty
Some basic trend-drivers
• Climate change will affect us and fossil fuels will be phased out
• World population is growing yet earth’s ressources are not. Ath
best, this will lead to social friction. At worst, this will lead to
resource wars.
• The demographic mix is a challenge – more elderly, fewer
young people.
• We are a social species seeking togetherness and
companionship- safety and freedom.
• Technology development and automation will reach new
heights.
BUT UNCERTAINTIES EXISTS
AND THEY FORM THE BACKBONE
OF SCENARIOS!
CENTRALITY
Center vs periphery
”The Oslo-pull”
Will Oslo increase it’s political, economic and cultural
magnetism?
If so – how does Indre Østfold meet the challenge?
If not– how does Indre Østfold meet that challenge?
Olso comes first, then Istanbul, Madrid
and Toulouse.
Global trend: The biggest cities can’t grow
any further. Which is why the second tier
cities are growing most.
OSLO European growth champion
• In Norway, one out of five live alone and
35% of all households consists of one
single person
• Singles thrive best in cities
• Institutions of higher
education is found in
cities (today)
• Cities have the best
transport system, etc.
Most attractive
Second most attractive
Middle of the road
Second least
Least attractive
Centrality around the Oslofjord
• Before 2050, approx 75 percent of the world population
will live in cites
• In the knowledge socity, cities are the social meeting
ground, cultural and political centers (not a collection of
workers)
• The role of the city in 2050 is uncelar
• Despite massive economic stimuli to rural areas in
Norway througout the last 50 years, the picture is clear:
the cities are growing
ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
”Business cycle”
What will the Norwegian economy look like in the next 30-35
years?
How will a change in the economy affect job creation and
attractiveness in Indre Østfold?
Is indre Østfold a cork bobbing in the water or does Indre
Østfold have ability to control some of the outcomes?
World: Value creation – historical and forecast (illustration)
Asia
NorthAmerica
Europe
Oil and gas won’t last forever
Investment curve
No more investment
Europe is
tasting the crisis
Greece: Fear of domino
effect
”Business cycle”
• What happens to Norway happens to Østfold.
• What happens to Europe, will- to some extent- happen to
Norway
• Norway’s unique position will gradually fade away
• Norwegians won’t live rich off the pension funds as
Europe declines
• However, Norwegians are well educated, with a stabile
democracy and a reserve of natural resources (still) and
plenty of time for adjustment
An oil driven economy
• One out of nine NOK in the Norwegian government budget
comes from the oil industry
• Money invested in foreign papers can lose value
• A great part of Norwegian agricultural production is subsidized
• A large part of the services provided by municipalities is
funded by government
• Much of the organized cultural activities in Norway are funded
indirectly by the government
More jobs to be done – less money, fewer hands
or?..
2011
• 13 % of the Norwegian population is
over 66 years old (625 000)
• Care and nursing sector employs
123,000 FTE’s (2009)
• Care and nursing sector makes up
2,2 % of GDP
2050?
• 22 % of the Norwegian population is
over 66 years old in 2060 (1,5 mill)
• A need for 280,000 FTE’s in 2050?
• Expenses associated with care and
nursing will make out 4 % of GDP?
Will money be able to fly off?
Commissioned by the British government’s
former chief economist of the World Bank,
Sir Nicholas Stern was tasked with quantifying the
economic and social costs associated with the
increasing impacts of climate change. The conclusions
were quite dramatic: Climate change can create a
negative economic spiral with year over year decline in
total world GDP between 5 and 20 percent. This is not
a temporary cyclical fluctuation but a trend that will
continue. The reduction will affect Europe and the U.S.
the hardest.
(Source: Forskning.no)
What happens to
Indre Østfold the next
30-35 years?
Positive?
Things will change!
Oslo-pull
Busines cycle
Negative?
(New) economic growth– fairly good economy
2
1
Autonomy
Oslo ”pull”
3
Stagnation and recession
The 3 scenarios are described in the
project report.
1 – GARDEN PARTY
1 – GARDEN PARTY
This is the tale of future wealth.
Indre Østfold is the green leaf on the green branch.
– A typical recidential region which have
complementary offerings in relation to Oslo and the
Oslofjord’s high pulse and high prices.
The economy is good in Norway and Indre Østfold.
Does this have to do with wise strategies or pure
luck? Hoping for the latter can be a risky bet.
2. Home alone party
2. Home alone party
This is the tale of a a range of possibilities which
appear as the Oslo region’s dominan grows weaker.
The intertwined nature between the Oslo region and
Indre Østfold been in the ‘naughts’.
Did Indre Østfold collapse when the Oslo dominan
grew weaker or did the region have resilient
strategies for development?
Was it a vacuum or a range of possibilites that
appeared as Indre Østfold was forced into higher
degree of autonomy?
3. Left overs
3. Left overs
This is the tale of a nation in recession. Necessity is
the mother of invention, they say, but how will Indre
Østfold react?
Norwegians have all been spoiled after decades of
prosperious growth. Indre Østfold is no exception.
What does a region do, when times are hard do
they innovate or hide away in nostalgia?
Key figures for population development in the 3
secnarios
Garden party
Home alone
Left over
Population 2010
58000
58000
58000
Immigration
30000
15000
-8000
Migration
30000
5000
0
Natural popula. increase
15000
5000
-3000
133000
83000
47000
Jobs 2010
21300
21300
21300
Growth private
-4000
0
-2000
Growth public
6000
4000
-2000
Sum jobs 2050
23300
25300
17300
Net commuter (in) in 2010
6600
6600
6600
Net commuters (out) 2050
40600
14600
5500
Sum population 2050
Key numbers for population growth and job creation in the 3
scenarios – change 2011 - 2050
80000
70000
60000
50000
Natural population
increase
40000
Settlement
30000
20000
Immigration
10000
0
-10000
-20000
Garden Party Home Alone
Left Over
The process - this time around
Driving forces
Future
Action
What can
change
Happen?
Frame-
Universal
Explorative
Risk
Strategic
work
drivers
scenarios
matrix
scenarios
Cross
Construct
Normative
Delegation
impact
scenarios
scenarios
Monitoring
Focus
How can
Internal
External
we act?
Decision
innovation
Focus
&
Key
industry
drivers
change/
Internal
Strategy
communication
Organizational
change
The road ahead ….
A explorative scenario project opens up
for strategic discussions related to
further planning and policy in the
municipality and the region
2
4
ANALYSIS CHOICE
DEBATE
1
IMAGES OF THE FUTURE
3
FANTASY
FANTASI
KNOWLEDGE
KUNNSKAP
AND
DIALOG
OG DIALOG
PLANNING AND
DECISIONS
NÅ!
2011
2050
The course of history…
Bon Voyage!
Lars Ueland Kobro and Martin Kruse
www.telemarksforsking.no
www.cifs.dk