Download Romania…… - Confindustria Umbria

Romania in the European
Economy
Prof. Gabriela TIGU, PhD
Vive-Rector
Bucharest University of Economic Studies
(ASE Bucharest)
[email protected]
GDP in 2010
9.800 EUR
5.700 EUR
10.400 EUR
3.192 EUR
4.220 EUR
4.720 EUR
4.600 EUR
3.300 EUR
2.661 EUR
Sursa: Eurostat
GDP in agriculture - % in total
2,9%
4,8%
7,51%
8%
8%
6%
5,3%
9,8%
16,8%
Sursa: I.N.S.
GDP in industry - % in total
22,5%
16,4%
17,16%
19,2%
9,5%
26,4%
23,1%
24%
8,9%
Sursa: I.N.S.
Datele sunt pe anul 2009 pentru Muntenegru, Albania, Bosnia-Herţegovina, Macedonia, Serbia
GDP in tertiary sector / services - % in total
55,5%
59,3%
55,74%
54,5%
59,1%
47,6%
63,5%
53,6%
51,2%
Sursa: I.N.S.
Datele sunt pe anul 2009 pentru Muntenegru, Albania, Bosnia-Herţegovina, Macedonia, Serbia
3940
2653
3680
4040
3292
4054
4168
3043
5354
7625
4308
4135
3924
6119
2377
5709
8218
5080
4446
4048
6412
5753
4067
6923
7712
5950
3242 3938
3708
4537
4015
3532
3460
4313
Sursa: Comisia Naţională de Prognoză
3484
3032
3806
3860
3570
Bucureşti: 14289
Ilfov: 9767
6709
4,7%
1,1%
2,1%
6,5%
6,1%
3%
1,6%
0,5%
3,4%
Sursa: Eurostat pentru România, Bulgaria, Ungaria, Croaţia.
Oficiile Naţionale de Statistică pentru Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, Muntenegru, Bosnia Herţegovina.
11,2%
11,8%
27,2%
19,2%
7,3%
10,2%
32%
19,6%
15%
Sursa: Eurostat şi Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Country expertise
6,0%
6,3%
6,0%
8,2%
7,4%
7,8%
5,8%
4,9%
7,9%
8,8%
7,5%
5,2%
11,4%
9,6%
9,6%
5,8%
3,7%
6,9%
6,3%
7,1%
8,1%
9,6%
8,6%
7,7%
7,5%
7,4%
8,4%
9,7%
8,5%
8,5%
9,8%
8,2%
8,4%
9,8%
10,8%
9,8%
7,8%
9,6%
9,0%
Bucureşti: 2,3%
Ilfov: 2,8%
5,7%
Sursa: I.N.S
735 EUR
449 EUR
1054 EUR
622 EUR
461 EUR
715 EUR
328 EUR
491 EUR
246 EUR
Sursa: Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Country expertise
243
257
241
253
255
315
251
339
244
245
289
285
289
340
251
242
276
352
283
355
255
277
331
314
243
311
262
303
261
284
307
247
284
254
275
306
241
277
233
Bucureşti: 462
Ilfov: 409
328
Sursa: I.N.S.
PROFIT 10% / 19%
TVA 25%
PROFIT 20%
TVA 23%
PROFIT 10%
TVA 17%
PROFIT 10%
TVA 18%
PROFIT 9%
TVA 17%
PROFIT 16%
TVA 24%
PROFIT 10%
TVA 20%
PROFIT 10%
TVA 18%
PROFIT 10%
TVA 20%
Sursa: Agenţii naţionale de promovare a investiţiilor
Sursa: O.N.R.C.
* Societăţi comerciale cu participare străină la capital
Sursa: O.N.R.C.
1,20 mld. EUR
2,69 mld. EUR
0,44 mld. EUR
0,05 mld. EUR
1,00 mld. EUR
1,64 mld. EUR
0,22 mld. EUR
0,57 mld. EUR
0,83 mld. EUR
Sursa: Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Country expertise
Sursa: Banca Naţională a României (B.N.R.), date provizorii pentru anul 2010 şi pentru primele 5 luni din anul 2011
I. OLANDA
27,03%
X. GRECIA
II. AUSTRIA
11,3%
3,47%
III. GERMANIA
8,48%
IX. ELVEŢIA
4,9%
IV. CIPRU
7,15%
VIII. Marea
BRITANIE
5%
V. FRANŢA
6,55%
VII. SPANIA
VI. ITALIA
5,06%
5,13%
* După capitalul social subscris
Sursa: O.N.R.C.
ENEL GREEN POWER 33,3 mil. euro
EGGER 7,2 mil. euro
MKB ROMEXTERRA BANK 44.3 mil. euro
GEDEON RICHTER ROMANIA 27.3 mil euro
ALTEX 8,7 mil. euro
LAPP INSULATORS 11,3 mil. euro
DELPHI DIESEL 15,0 mil. euro
SHINHEUNG ELECTRONICS 9,8 mil. euro
RAFO 43,4 mil. euro
INTESA SANPAOLO 27,5 mil. euro
BARLINEK 42,4 mil. euro
INFOPRESS 10,9 mil. Euro
CONTINENTAL 12,2 mil. euro
OBRIST EASTERN EUROPE 8,8 mil.euro
OLYMPUS DAIRY 20,7 mil. euro
ARCELLORMITTAL 10,9 mil. euro
BUNGE ROMANIA 40,8 mil.euro
ROSIA MONTANA GOLD
CORPORATION 123 mil. euro
KRONOSPAN 21,1 mil. euro
FERAL 20 mil. euro
ARCELORMITTAL 89 mil. euro
ADAMA MANAGEMENT
41,2 mil. euro
MEDIA INDUSTRIES 21,4 mil. euro
ROMPETROL 184.7 mil. euro
COGEME SET RO 6,3 mil. euro
KOYO 8,9 mil. euro
PIRELLI 96.1 mil. euro
LUFKIN
28,2 mil. euro
Sursa: O.N.R.C.
* Dupa capitalul social subscris
EUROPOLIS REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT 235.2 mil euro
UPC ROMANIA 233.4 mil euro
GARANTI BANK 185.3 mil euro
GRAN VIA ROMANIA 114 mil euro
ADEVARUL HOLDING 109.9 mil euro
REAL - HYPERMARKET ROMANIA 89.2 mil euro
ALPHA BANK ROMANIA 73.7 mil euro
Sursa: I.N.S.
IV. Iaşi
11.069
III. ClujNapoca
11.918
VI. Timişoara
8.897
X. Târgu-Mureş
2.162
VII.
Sibiu
5.500
II. Braşov
22.796
VIII. Galaţi
4.903
IX. Piteşti
3.057
V. Craiova
9.241
* Absolvenţii de învăţământ superior public şi privat, an universitar 2009 – 2010
I. Bucureşti
71.972
Sursa: I.N.S.
Romania has made
significant progress over
the past 3 years
Stabilization of the Economy:
– Improvement in the fiscal balance
– Stabilization of the exchange rate
– Lower risk premium and interest rates
– Record low inflation
– Stabilization of the banking system
– Improvement of external imbalances
The Fiscal Balance
Romania: Cash Fiscal Balance
(% of GDP)
The Fiscal Balance
Romania: Structural Fiscal Balance
(% of GDP)
The Exchange Rate
National currency against the euro
(index)
Interest Rates
Inflation
Banking Sector Stability
• Banks remain well-capitalized
• Liquidity in the system is high
• No banks in Romania have failed
External Imbalances
5
0
Romania Trade
(Billions of Euro)
-5
6.0
5.0
4.0
-10
5
Current Account
(Percent of GDP)
0
-5
3.0
-15
2.0
-20
-25
Trade Balance (12 months, lhs)
Exports (sa)
Imports (sa)
1.0
-30
0.0
2007M1 2008M1 2009M1 2010M1 2011M1 2012M1
-10
-15
-20
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
So stabilization has been fairly
successful, but what about
growth?
Economic Growth
Romania: GDP Growth
12.0
Real GDP growth
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
QoQ, SA
-10.0
2007Q1
Source: Haver.
2008Q1
2009Q1
YoY
2010Q1
2011Q1
Comparative Growth
• But what about sustainable,
long-term, high growth?
• How does Romania converge
with richer EU countries?
• Sustained growth is different
from economic recovery
Romania and Economic Institutions
• Is Romania’s economic structure welladapted for stable, high economic
growth?
• I would say not yet.
• Difference between “policies” and
“institutions”
Romania’s growth challenge
• 0. Maintain macroeconomic stability
• 1. Increase the quantity and quality of
capital in the economy
• 2. Increase the quantity and quality of
labor
• 3. Improve the physical infrastructure
that firms and workers use (roads,
railways, electricity, water, etc.)
• 4. Improve the institutional infrastructure
1. How can Romania increase
Capital?
Investment
• Financial sector:
– Assure good functioning of the
banking system
– Reduce country risk  interest rates
down, investors come
• Absorb EU investment funds!
• Privatization, private participation
2. How can Romania increase Labor?
• Improve market functioning 
higher productivity
• Higher labor force participation
• Reduce informal economy formal
economy
• Human capital: Education and
training
3. Improving physical infrastructure
• EU funds absorption
• Prioritizing public investment
• Attract private capital/improve
efficiency of public enterprises in
infrastructure
• Improve regulatory framework
• Embedded technology vs.
innovation
3. Improving physical infrastructure
• EU funds absorption
• Prioritizing public investment
• Attract private capital/improve
efficiency of public enterprises in
infrastructure
• Improve regulatory framework
4. Improving the “institutional”
infrastructure
• The laws, norms, institutions (public and
private) and customs that determine the
economic environment.
• It is the rule of law, but also much more.
– Examples: constitutions, the EU acquis.
4. Improving the “institutional”
infrastructure
• Structural reforms under the IMF/EU
program have aimed at improving
policies, sometimes with improvements
in institutions.
• Examples:
– Pension reform (policy and institutions)
– Fiscal responsibility law vs. deficit
reduction
– SOE reforms, privatization
4. Improving the “institutional”
infrastructure
• But much more is needed:
– Legal system reforms
• Need to make the system more efficient, more
predictable, less costly (in money AND time)
– Public sector reforms to improve efficiency.
• Functional reviews
• Tax optimization
• Simplify and reduce bureaucracy
• Improve regulatory framework
•
•
•
•
•
4. Improving the “institutional”
infrastructure
Legal system reforms
Public sector reforms to improve
efficiency
Improve regulatory framework
Attack corruption
“Simplicity, transparency,
accountability”
Conclusions
• Romania has many characteristics
needed for sustained growth:
– Macroeconomic stability has been
regained and may be more robust this time
– Geographic advantages
– Natural resources
– Large, educated population that is
underutilized
Conclusions
• Policies have improved, but institutions
are a challenge
– Legacy of communism
– Imported institutions from the EU, but not
complete or ideal.
– Rent-seeking behavior vs. wealth creation.
– Institutional stability and efficiency needed
for investment and innovation.
Destination Romania
Romania’s environment
• attractive, rich and
various
• a diversity of relief
forms – mountains,
hills and plateaus,
plains, coastal zones
-, flora and fauna,
thanks to it
geographical position.
Romania - the country of the Carpathians,
the Danube and the Black Sea
• The Carpathians make an
almost compact ring, with
the Transylvania Plateau
inside
• Forests cover over a
quarter of the country and
the fauna is one of the
richest in Europe
including wolves, bears,
deer, lynx and chamois.
Romania - the country of the Carpathians,
the Danube and the Black Sea
• Romania has the greatest
surface of the
hydrographic basin of the
Danube, controlling 38%
of the navigable course.
• The Danube forms the
southern boundary of the
country terminating in the
Delta on the Black Sea, a
heaven for countless
native and migratory
birds.
Romania - the country of the Carpathians,
the Danube and the Black Sea
• And finally, the
country is located on
the western coast of
the Black Sea with a
marine opening of
245 km, which
confers on it a special
status.
At present, Romanian tourism industry is characterized by the following
indicators:
• 7.5 million foreign visitors in 2010 (down from 8.9 million
in 2008…); out of which, 7.1 million visitors are coming
from Europe (the most important markets being
Moldavia, Bulgaria, Germany, Italy, Turkey, France,
Russia and Spain);
• 10.9 million outbound Romanian tourists (same year);
the main destinations are Italy, Greece, Hungary,
Bulgaria, Spain, Austria and Turkey;
• more than 1,000 million US Dollars revenue from
international tourism, but this amount is quite low in
comparison with other European countries;
• 3,405 millions US$ in GDP (or 2.04%) and
• 270,000 jobs (3.2% of the total number of employees in
Romania), showing a quite low participation of the
tourism in the total Romanian economy (WEF, 2011).
10000
9000
8862
8000
7700
7000
6600
6000
5000
6972
7498
6037
5595
4938
7575
4794
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
International tourist arrivals in Romania (thousands of tourists)
• all types of tourism programs offered by Romania meet a
strong competition from the West-European markets;
• other countries have a large variety of offers for
categories of tourists, but the Romanian offer is, in a
way, limited, concentrated only in a few resorts, and
there, only in a few hotels;
• by comparison with competitors from Bulgaria, Turkey,
Greece or Cyprus, the quality of the service in Romania
is lower;
• the entertainment is less diversified;
• technical and transportation infrastructure is inadequate;
• it is imperative to improve the comfort level in hotels in
large urban areas and in the resorts for foreign tourists;
• concerning the quality/ price ratio or the value for money,
Romania is not anymore an attractive tourism market.
• the main destinations are Transylvania (Dracula’ tours, fortresses,
landscapes), Bukovina (UNESCO monasteries with mural paintings,
rural tourism, gastronomy and traditions), Maramures (UNESCO
wood churches, landscapes, old villages with tradition and
handicrafts), Bucharest (museums, Palace of Parliament, night life
and casinos), the Delta of Danube (cruises, birdwatching, fishing
and heritage), Carpathian Mountains (active holidays) and seaside;
• highly appreciated are the patience, hospitality, benevolence, and
sociability of the people, great satisfaction with accommodation,
information and business services;
• main negative aspects are related to infrastructure and the lack of
professionalism of the employees around the tourism, the meals and
leisure facilities, the non-competitive prices compared to neighbour
destinations (Bulgaria, Turkey, Greece);
• the persistence of some problems about the image of Romania as a
tourism destination (pocket lifters, taxi drivers which cheat the
customers, stray dogs, lack of cleanliness, lack of parks and public
toilets etc.);
• the marketing efforts abroad were inconsequent and/or insufficient.
Compared to its main competitors, Romania seems to be
not competitive:
Country
The Travel & Tourism
Competitiveness Index 2011
Greece
4.78
Croatia
4.61
Montenegro
4.56
Hungary
4.54
Bulgaria
4.39
Turkey
4.37
Romania
4.17
Thank you for attention!