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LECTURE 6: MACROECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE (I) Re-endogenizing X: Y depends on Y*. (II) The two-country model, used for a country big enough to affect world income Y*. • Simultaneous determination of Y & Y*. • Implication of repercussion effects for the multiplier. (III) International transmission under fixed vs. floating exchange rates • of a disturbance originating domestically. • of a disturbance originating abroad . (I) Re-endogenizing Exports A X M Y sm X X m *Y * } => A X m *Y * M Y sm I.e., Y depends on Y*. “When the US sneezes, Canada catches cold.” ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel, HKS Y depends on Y*. For every $1 of foreign income, how much is spent on our goods? A X m *Y * M Y sm For every $1 of demand for our exports, how much does our income rise? ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel, HKS (II) The 2-country model: Add the other, symmetric, equation: Y* depends on Y. Instead of deriving the equation for Y* from scratch, use equation for Y, A X m *Y * M Y sm For every $1 of domestic income, and substitute foreign for domestic how much is spent on foreign goods? and domestic for foreign: A X mY M Y* s * m * * For every $1 of demand for foreign goods, how much does foreign income rise? ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel, HKS * * FIGURE 17.A.1 2-country model Combine two simultaneous relationships: => equilibrium at B . Fiscal expansion shifts Y to D in small-country Keynesian model • • • (too small to affect Y*), but further, to D´, in large-country model. ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel, HKS In two-country model, multiplier is increased by subtraction from denominator of m* m /(s*+m* ), • • • of which m is leakage abroad through imports, m/(s*+m* ) is the multiplier effect of our imports on Y* , and m* [m /(s*+m* )] is the repercussion effect: how much comes back as demand for our goods. ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel, HKS Example: After the mortgage crisis arose in the US 2007-08, YUS↓ => US Imports↓. But partly offset by Yforeign↓=> US Exports↓. “The dollar dilemma,” Investors Chronicle, Neil Wilson blog Prof.J.Frankel, HKS Big-country model vs. small-country model FIGURE 17.5 The same result -- fiscal expansion raises Y to D in small-country Keynesian model, but further, to D´, in large-country model -can be shown in our traditional graph. The X-M line is flatter now, because it captures the repercussion effect on TB: Beyond Y↑ => IM↑, also X*↑ =>Y*↑ => X↑ • • • ● D’’ ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel, HKS FIG.17.A.1 If both countries expand: adverse trend in TB (D´´ lies above TB=0 line, which is deficit territory) can result if either: A rises faster than A *, or m>m* (TB=0 line is flat). • Note: This model may not work in the long run, when growth is supply-driven 𝑌 rather than demand-driven. Prof.J.Frankel, HKS • (III) International Transmission I↓ Fix Float X↓ Float Fix => depreciation => appreciation • • • Floating increases effect on Y = “bottling up” of disturbance. • • Floating decreases effect on Y = “insulation.” Conclusions regarding transmission (with no capital mobility) • (i) Trade makes economies interdependent (at a given exchange rate). – TB can act as a safety valve, releasing pressure from expansion: Y (1 /(s m)) A . – Disturbances are transmitted from one country to another: Y (1/(s m)) X ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel, HKS . Conclusions regarding transmission (with no capital mobility), continued • (ii) Floating exchange rates work to isolate effects of demand disturbances within the country where they originate: – Effects of a domestic disturbance tend to be “bottled up” within the country. In the extreme, floating reproduces the closed economy multiplier: Y (1 / s) A. . – The floating rate tends to insulate the domestic economy from effects of foreign disturbances. In the extreme, floating reproduces a closed economy: . ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel, HKS Y 0. End of Lecture 6: International Transmission ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel, HKS