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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for reflexive alignment in emerging S&T Douglas K. R. Robinson & Tilo Propp Dept. Science, Technology, Health and Policy Studies (STeHPS) University of Twente, The Netherlands Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA There is considerable difficulty in applying roadmapping approaches for very early stages of a technological innovation Roadmapping may be effective at later stages of emergence, however additional support is needed to incorporate the evolving landscape into the roadmapping procedure This is typified by Nanotechnology, where many stakeholder groups are attempting to define strategies at the outset, in technology fields which one could argue are totally new Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (1) Placing the markers on an evolving landscape Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA Thus, for roadmaps that can be pegged to the evolving landscape typical of very early stages in a technological innovation, an approach for anticipatory flexibility is attractive. The goal of the paper is to report on the (ongoing) development and application of Multi-Path Mapping which can act as strategic intelligence in alignment tools for new and emerging S&T and informed by dynamics of new and emerging S&T. In this approach, we integrate knowledge about processes of technology emergence into mapping possible paths as intelligence for strategy articulation. We argue that such a tool could considerably enhance roadmapping for early stage technologies. Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (1) Placing the markers on an evolving landscape Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA The novelty of emerging science and technology poses general challenges for roadmapping. Walsh (2004) reports how in MANCEF’s roadmapping exercise for ‘top-down nanotechnology’, certain requirements of traditional roadmapping approaches could not be met: –definition of the scope and boundaries of the technology –specification of technology drivers and their targets –identification of the product that would be the focus of the roadmap. These are but a few of the challenges, and ar elinked to the context of the roadmapping. For nanotechnology, this means rapidly fluctuating networks of stakeholders, the interplay of many strategies, sunk investments and forging of new alliances based on the promise of nanotechnology. Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (2) Roadmapping new and emerging S&T Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA • In our project, we are interested in articulating strategy in the field of nanotechnology for the life sciences. • We integrate insights from analysis of path dependency, path creation an emerging patterns of alignment, through indicators of these dynamics, namely emerging irreversibilities • A key notion here is that emerging irreversibilities enable and constrain actors in the sense that actors encounter more or less resistance for the different options they try to explore and develop (this can be hidden behind the backs of the actors). When actors try to act against irreversibilities, this requires effort. The converse is true when actors try to achieve things in line with irreversibilities. • Knowledge of emerging irreversibilities in the emerging field can be fed into the mapping of prospective paths to aid strategy articulation and inform roadmapping for new and emerging S&T Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (3) Integrating insights from studies of path dynamics Multi-path mapping for integrated cell analysis Mapping prospective innovation chains Douglas K. R. Robinson & Tilo Propp 09:00 – 16:30. 12th June 2006, De Rode Hoed, Amsterdam, NL Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA • For an integrated platform technology, such as labon-a-chip, a large number of research lines and processes need to be coordinated. A large number of actors (from different spheres) must align: material science, microtechnology, microelectronics, microfluidics, manufacture and packaging etc. etc. So a problem relating to PLATFORMS • For a product to reach the market, yet more actors need to align (scientists/technologists, start-up companies, regulators, larger industries etc.) So a problem relating to the INNOVATION CHAIN • For improving societal embedment of the innovation into future health care sector and pharmaceutical industry many ELSA issues have to addressed upstream if they are to be navigated in the optimum way Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (4a) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA Researchers going somewhere else Proof of principle Product application Experimental platform System integration Transition from lab to company Integrated platform Paths to application Product application Product application Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (4a) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (4a) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains Application area Integrated platform/ Product Experimental platform Research (devices; tools; approaches) t=0 t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t=10 Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA Case research & Interviews merged into pre-workshop report via scenarios Challenges coming from scenarios and discussion (deeper exploration) Focus on paths to particular platform configuration and applications. Participation of experts from industry, research and technology assessment Scenario exploration 09:15 – 12:00 Multi-path mapping 12:00 – 14:30 Strategy articulation 14:45 – 16:45 Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (4b) Integrating path dynamics into strategy articulation processes Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA Drug delivery Application area Medical diagnostics Forensics Environmental (water; air) and epidemiological monitoring Drug discovery (HTS; quality control; lead optimization) Life sciences research (genomics; proteomics; cellomics) Integrated platform/ Product High-throughput patch clamping system (Cytocentrics) MCA paths Based on cell lysis Application specific platform Stem cells/embryo Biosensors Integrated biosensor array for warfighter protection Lab-in-a-cell Advanced cytoxicity array Single cell lysed Experimental platform Single cell not lysed SCA paths Research (devices; tools; approaches) patch clamping MEMS Optical trapping DEP Short/medium term Long term Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (4b) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (4b) Integrating path dynamics into strategy articulation processes Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA Drug delivery Application area Medical diagnostics Forensics Environmental (water; air) and epidemiological monitoring Drug discovery (HTS; quality control; lead optimization) Life sciences research (genomics; proteomics; cellomics) Integrated platform/ Product High-throughput patch clamping system (Cytocentrics) MCA paths Based on cell lysis Application specific platform Stem cells/embryo Biosensors Integrated biosensor array for warfighter protection Lab-in-a-cell Advanced cytoxicity array Single cell lysed Experimental platform Single cell not lysed SCA paths Research (devices; tools; approaches) patch clamping MEMS Optical trapping DEP Short/medium term Long term Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (4b) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA • Multi-Path mapping has been used as strategic intelligence in strategy articulation • The approach incorporates anticipatory flexibility by mapping out possible roads by taking into consideration possible evolutions of the socio-technical landscape (knowledge of characteristics of path emergence) • Next step is to apply the tool for different nanotechnologies (Spring 2007) • Additional step, explore the process of integrating MPM into roadmapping processes (Work in progress) Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected] (5) Wrap up