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Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for reflexive
alignment in emerging S&T
Douglas K. R. Robinson & Tilo Propp
Dept. Science, Technology, Health and Policy Studies (STeHPS)
University of Twente, The Netherlands
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
There is considerable difficulty in applying
roadmapping approaches for very early stages
of a technological innovation
Roadmapping may be effective at later stages
of emergence, however additional support is
needed to incorporate the evolving landscape
into the roadmapping procedure
This is typified by Nanotechnology, where
many stakeholder groups are attempting to
define strategies at the outset, in technology
fields which one could argue are totally new
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(1) Placing the markers on an evolving landscape
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
Thus, for roadmaps that can be pegged to the evolving landscape typical of very
early stages in a technological innovation, an approach for anticipatory flexibility is
attractive.
The goal of the paper is to report on the (ongoing) development and application
of Multi-Path Mapping which can act as strategic intelligence in alignment tools
for new and emerging S&T and informed by dynamics of new and emerging S&T.
In this approach, we integrate knowledge about processes of technology emergence
into mapping possible paths as intelligence for strategy articulation.
We argue that such a tool could considerably enhance roadmapping for early stage
technologies.
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(1) Placing the markers on an evolving landscape
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
The novelty of emerging science and technology poses general challenges for
roadmapping.
Walsh (2004) reports how in MANCEF’s roadmapping exercise for ‘top-down
nanotechnology’, certain requirements of traditional roadmapping approaches could
not be met:
–definition of the scope and boundaries of the technology
–specification of technology drivers and their targets
–identification of the product that would be the focus of the roadmap.
These are but a few of the challenges, and ar elinked to the context of the
roadmapping. For nanotechnology, this means rapidly fluctuating networks of
stakeholders, the interplay of many strategies, sunk investments and forging of new
alliances based on the promise of nanotechnology.
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(2) Roadmapping new and emerging S&T
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
•
In our project, we are interested in articulating strategy
in the field of nanotechnology for the life sciences.
•
We integrate insights from analysis of path dependency,
path creation an emerging patterns of alignment,
through indicators of these dynamics, namely
emerging irreversibilities
•
A key notion here is that emerging irreversibilities enable and constrain actors in
the sense that actors encounter more or less resistance for the different options
they try to explore and develop (this can be hidden behind the backs of the
actors). When actors try to act against irreversibilities, this requires effort. The
converse is true when actors try to achieve things in line with irreversibilities.
•
Knowledge of emerging irreversibilities in the emerging field can be fed
into the mapping of prospective paths to aid strategy articulation and
inform roadmapping for new and emerging S&T
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(3) Integrating insights from studies of path dynamics
Multi-path mapping for integrated cell analysis
Mapping prospective innovation chains
Douglas K. R. Robinson & Tilo Propp
09:00 – 16:30.
12th June 2006, De Rode Hoed, Amsterdam, NL
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
•
For an integrated platform technology, such as labon-a-chip, a large number of research lines and
processes need to be coordinated. A large
number of actors (from different spheres) must
align: material science, microtechnology,
microelectronics, microfluidics, manufacture and
packaging etc. etc.
So a problem relating to PLATFORMS
•
For a product to reach the market, yet more actors need to align
(scientists/technologists, start-up companies, regulators, larger industries etc.)
So a problem relating to the INNOVATION CHAIN
•
For improving societal embedment of the innovation into future health care
sector and pharmaceutical industry many ELSA issues have to addressed
upstream if they are to be navigated in the optimum way
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(4a) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
Researchers
going somewhere else
Proof of
principle
Product
application
Experimental
platform
System
integration
Transition from
lab to company
Integrated
platform
Paths to
application
Product
application
Product
application
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(4a) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(4a) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains
Application
area
Integrated
platform/
Product
Experimental
platform
Research
(devices;
tools;
approaches)
t=0
t+2
t+4
t+6
t+8
t=10
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
Case research & Interviews merged into
pre-workshop report via scenarios
Challenges coming from
scenarios and discussion
(deeper exploration)
Focus on paths to particular
platform configuration and
applications.
Participation of experts from industry,
research and technology assessment
Scenario
exploration
09:15 – 12:00
Multi-path
mapping
12:00 – 14:30
Strategy
articulation
14:45 – 16:45
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(4b) Integrating path dynamics into strategy articulation processes
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
Drug delivery
Application area
Medical diagnostics
Forensics
Environmental (water; air) and epidemiological monitoring
Drug discovery (HTS; quality control; lead optimization)
Life sciences research (genomics; proteomics; cellomics)
Integrated
platform/
Product
High-throughput patch
clamping system
(Cytocentrics)
MCA paths
Based on cell lysis
Application
specific
platform
Stem cells/embryo
Biosensors
Integrated biosensor array
for warfighter protection
Lab-in-a-cell
Advanced cytoxicity array
Single cell
lysed
Experimental
platform
Single cell
not lysed
SCA paths
Research
(devices;
tools;
approaches)
patch clamping
MEMS
Optical trapping
DEP
Short/medium term
Long term
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(4b) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(4b) Integrating path dynamics into strategy articulation processes
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
Drug delivery
Application area
Medical diagnostics
Forensics
Environmental (water; air) and epidemiological monitoring
Drug discovery (HTS; quality control; lead optimization)
Life sciences research (genomics; proteomics; cellomics)
Integrated
platform/
Product
High-throughput patch
clamping system
(Cytocentrics)
MCA paths
Based on cell lysis
Application
specific
platform
Stem cells/embryo
Biosensors
Integrated biosensor array
for warfighter protection
Lab-in-a-cell
Advanced cytoxicity array
Single cell
lysed
Experimental
platform
Single cell
not lysed
SCA paths
Research
(devices;
tools;
approaches)
patch clamping
MEMS
Optical trapping
DEP
Short/medium term
Long term
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(4b) From emerging paths to prospective innovation chains
Multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for FTA
•
Multi-Path mapping has been used as strategic
intelligence in strategy articulation
•
The approach incorporates anticipatory
flexibility by mapping out possible roads by
taking into consideration possible evolutions of
the socio-technical landscape (knowledge of
characteristics of path emergence)
•
Next step is to apply the tool for different
nanotechnologies (Spring 2007)
•
Additional step, explore the process of
integrating MPM into roadmapping processes
(Work in progress)
Douglas K. R. Robinson - [email protected]
(5) Wrap up