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Boom and Bust: Population Change in Russia’s Arctic Cities ARCSUS Final Conference Kirkenes, Norway September 24-26, 2015 Timothy Heleniak Department of Geography George Washington University [email protected] Nordregio Nordic Centre for Spatial Development [email protected] Sustainability • Classic definition about impact on future generations • Sustainability and the Russian North • At various geographic scales – economic, environmental, regional, city or settlement, societal or cultural • Population size and composition is one input, including into social sustainability Figure 2.1: Population change in the Arctic, 2000-2010 (percent) Alaska (United States) Iceland Canadian Arctic World Faroe Islands Greenland Norwegian Arctic Arctic, total Norrbotten (Sweden) Lappi (Finland) Russian Arctic -10 -5 0 5 10 Percent change, 2000 to 2010 Source: National statiscal offices and UN Population Division. • Population change in the Arctic stabilizes at about 4 million with large regional differences 15 Global population growth, 1750 to 2150 4th IPY 3rd IPY 2nd IPY 1st IPY • It took all of human history to reach first billion people, in about 1804. • At time of first IPY, total population was about 1.7 billion. • Currently about 6.9 billion or 4 times the population at first IPY and more than double previous IPY in 1958. • Arctic regions gaining do so from natural increase • Those losing population are from net outmigration • Comparisons to global trends, and developed and less developed countries The future of the Arctic will be in cities • Growth in Arctic cities, except in Russia • Increased migration up the urban hierarchy Mall in Nuuk, Greenland Go north, young man! Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, “The U.S. Economy and Alaska Migration”, Alaska Economic Trends, June 2009. Migration and natural increase in Alaska, 1947 to 2012 Migration drives population change in Alaska (and across the Arctic) Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section. Migration to the Canadian north • Hudson’s Bay Company had exclusive trading rights • Search for Franklin expedition in Canadian archipelago gained valuable knowledge • Yukon gold rush began the permanent population boom • WWII and AlaskaCanada highway brought in more permanent population Miners climbing Chilkoot Pass during Klondike gold rush, 1898 Source: Southcott, “Migration in the Canadian Arctic: An Introduction”, Migration in the Circumpolar North, CCI Press, 2010. Boom, bust, then slow growth In spite of post-Gold Rush population drop, it was the start of permanent settlement in the Canadian North Indigenous and outsiders in the Canadian North, 1911 to 2001 During Yukon Gold Rush, outsiders were two-thirds of population, down to 14 percent in 1931, now about half as development projects bring in outsiders Source: Statistics Canada. Iceland – Land of the Vikings • Uninhabited until 874 • Under Norwegian and Danish rule until 1944 • Poor country dependent on fishing and livestock until recently Over half the population lives in Reykjavik • First country in the world to conduct complete modern census 1703 (good statistics) The rest is pretty empty Population fluctuations in Iceland Icelandic demographic history marked by swings in births and deaths and net migration Source: Statistics Iceland. Migration statistics start in 1801. Phases of Siberian and Arctic Development • Pre-Soviet • Forced labor – ‘Opening of the North’ • Wage increments • Improvement of living conditions • Post-Soviet – Moved Abandoned by the State Settlers lunching in Irkutsk Gulag labor building the rail line to Murmansk Forced labor and the development of the Soviet Arctic Millions were sent to Siberia and the Arctic to rapidly industrialize the Soviet Union at the time of the first Five-Year Plan in 1928. The Arctic economy was controlled by the labor camp administrations or GULAG Source: Martin Gilbert, The Routledge Atlas of Russian History. Third Edition, 2002. The Northern Sea Route and development of the Soviet Arctic The Northern Sea route was a massive and heavilysubsidized component of Arctic development Source: Martin Gilbert, The Routledge Atlas of Russian History. Third Edition, 2002. Figure 2: Size of the Urban Population in the Russian North, 1989 and 2010 (in order by size of urban population in 1989) Khanty-Mansiy AO Arkhangel'sk Oblast Murmansk Oblast Komi Republic Sakha Republic (Yakutia) Karelian Republic Sakhalin Oblast Kamchatka Oblast Yamal-Nenets AO Magadan Oblast Chukotka AO 2010 1989 Taymyr AO Nenets AO Koryak AO Evenki AO 0 200 400 Source: Rosstat, 1989, 2002, and 2010 census results. 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 The rapid growth of cities in the Soviet Arctic Figure 4: Population size in selected Arctic and Northern cities, 1897 to 2010 500 450 Arkhangel'sk (Arkhangel'sk) 400 Murmansk (Murmansk) Thousands Surgut (Khanty-Mansiy Okrug) 350 Yakutsk (Sakha Republic) 300 Nizhnevartovsk (Khanty-Mansiy Okrug) Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (Sakhalin) 250 Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy (Kamchatka) 200 Noril'sk (Krasnoyarsk) Nefteyugansk (Khanty-Mansiy Okrug) 150 Novyy Urengoy (Yamal-Nenets Okrug) Magadan (Magadan) 100 Vorkuta (Komi Republic) 50 0 1897 1926 1939 1959 1970 1979 1989 2002 2010 The centrally-planned economy of the Soviet Union put large numbers of people into the Arctic Eleven of 12 cities in the Arctic with populations over 100,000 are in Russia (other is Anchorage, Alaska) “To the North” • 52 percent stated that their reason for moving to the North was to earn money (males 59 percent, females 45 percent) • With a spouse or parents, 50 percent of females against 15 percent of males • A desire to see the world or romanticism (13 percent of respondents) The long list of northern benefits Source: Survey by Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) in 1997-1998 for the World Bank, of 582 persons who had migrated from one of the 16 regions of the Far North to four regions elsewhere in Russia, 1998. Depopulation of the Russian Arctic The Triple Transition: - transition away from a centrally-planned economy towards a market economy - break up of the Soviet Union - liberalization of society, including freedom of movement. Source: Heleniak, “Migration and Population Change in the Russian Far North during the 1990s”, Migration in the Circumpolar North: Issues and Contexts, 2010. The Russian state withdraws from Northern development • In Soviet times, northern entitlements supported through centrally-planed transfers, over 3 percent of GDP • Burden shifted in 1993 to regions and private sector. Most go unpaid. • Soviet development of the Arctic became unsustainable in Russia’s new market economy Federal Financing of Fuel and Foodstuff Shipments to the North, 1992 to 1997 ("The Northern Shipment") Percent of GDP 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Source: World Bank, Economic and Social Issues of Migrtaion from the Russian North, Policy Note, 1998. 1997 Winter after 1998 financial crisis Northerners vote with their feet • “We always viewed our stay in the North as temporary” (29 percent of respondents, who could give up to three reasons) • It “became senseless to stay in the North” (27 percent) • We “wanted to get back to our native place, relatives, friends” (23 percent) Source: NEI survey of northern migrants. Heleniak, “Population Change in the Periphery: Changing Migration Patterns in the Russian North”, Sibirica: Interdisciplinary Journal of Siberian Studies, Winter 2010, pp. 9-40. The waters of “Archipelago Russia” rise • Number of settlements in the North has declined by 10 percent from 1989 to 2002 • In the North in 2002, 12 percent of villages were ghost towns, including 42 percent in Magadan • Population in Magadan city increased from 39 to 54 percent of the oblast, while declining from 152 to 99 thousand Source: Heleniak, “Changing Settlement Patterns across the Russian North at the Turn of the Millennium”, Russia’s Northern Regions on the Edge: Communities, industries and populations from Murmansk to Magadan, 2008. Leslie Dienes, “Archipelago Russia: Economic Peaks in Dead Space”, European Security Review. Village near Lake Baykal Abandoned housing in Murmansk What role does attachment to place play in migration decisions of the population of the Russian North? • Northern population consisted of outsiders, born elsewhere, including outside Russia • Population declined by 1.4 million in North, of which 1.3 million of had been born outside the North Source: Heleniak, Timothy, “The role of attachment to place in migration decisions of the population of the Russian North”, Polar Geography, Vol. 32, Nos. 1-2, March-June 2009, pp. 31-60. Figure 12: Relationship between Net Migration and Change in Share of Population with Higher Education by Region in Russia, 1989 to 2002 Percentage point change in population with higher and postgraduate education, 1989 to 2002 70 60 50 40 Moscow city 30 20 Magadan 10 Kamchatka 0 Evenki AO Chukotka -10 Koryak AO -20 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 Net migration, 1989 to 2002 (as percent of 1989 population) Positive correlation between net migration and change in educational levels of the population 40 The Soviet Russian state intervenes • Resulting northern population was older, less educated, and less mobile Northern Restructuring Project 1. The Federal Policy Component ($3 million) 2. The Migration Assistance Component ($76 million) 3. The Local Restructuring Component ($6 million) • Migration assistance programs at federal, regional, and enterprise levels Abandoned settlement in Magadan Applying for the Migration Assistance Program in Vorkuta, Komi Republic. 4. The Monitoring and Evaluation Component ($1.2 million) 5. The Project Management Component ($8 million) Total project costs: $94.4 million (IBRD $80 million) Conclusions • Level of economic activity and size of population in these regions during Soviet period are not sustainable during postSoviet period • With downsizing of population and infrastructure, are remaining settlements sustainable, those growing or declining? • What about remaining infrastructure? Thank you. Questions? [email protected]