Download A GIS of Ethnicity in the Former Soviet Union

Boom and Bust: Population Change
in Russia’s Arctic Cities
ARCSUS Final Conference
Kirkenes, Norway
September 24-26, 2015
Timothy Heleniak
Department of Geography
George Washington University
[email protected]
Nordregio
Nordic Centre for Spatial Development
[email protected]
Sustainability
• Classic definition about impact on future generations
• Sustainability and the Russian North
• At various geographic scales – economic,
environmental, regional, city or settlement, societal or
cultural
• Population size and composition is one input, including
into social sustainability
Figure 2.1: Population change in the Arctic, 2000-2010 (percent)
Alaska (United States)
Iceland
Canadian Arctic
World
Faroe Islands
Greenland
Norwegian Arctic
Arctic, total
Norrbotten (Sweden)
Lappi (Finland)
Russian Arctic
-10
-5
0
5
10
Percent change, 2000 to 2010
Source: National statiscal offices and UN Population Division.
• Population change in the Arctic stabilizes at
about 4 million with large regional differences
15
Global population growth, 1750 to 2150
4th IPY
3rd IPY
2nd IPY
1st IPY
• It took all of human history to reach first billion people, in
about 1804.
• At time of first IPY, total population was about 1.7 billion.
• Currently about 6.9 billion or 4 times the population at first
IPY and more than double previous IPY in 1958.
• Arctic regions gaining do so from natural increase
• Those losing population are from net outmigration
• Comparisons to global trends, and developed and less
developed countries
The future of the Arctic will be in cities
• Growth in Arctic cities,
except in Russia
• Increased migration up
the urban hierarchy
Mall in Nuuk, Greenland
Go north, young man!
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, “The U.S. Economy and Alaska
Migration”, Alaska Economic Trends, June 2009.
Migration and natural increase
in Alaska, 1947 to 2012
Migration drives population change in Alaska (and across the Arctic)
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section.
Migration to the Canadian north
• Hudson’s Bay Company
had exclusive trading
rights
• Search for Franklin
expedition in Canadian
archipelago gained
valuable knowledge
• Yukon gold rush began
the permanent
population boom
• WWII and AlaskaCanada highway
brought in more
permanent population
Miners climbing Chilkoot
Pass during Klondike gold
rush, 1898
Source: Southcott, “Migration in the Canadian Arctic: An Introduction”, Migration in the Circumpolar North, CCI Press, 2010.
Boom, bust, then slow growth
In spite of post-Gold Rush population drop, it was the
start of permanent settlement in the Canadian North
Indigenous and outsiders in the
Canadian North, 1911 to 2001
During Yukon Gold Rush, outsiders were two-thirds of population, down
to 14 percent in 1931, now about half as development projects bring in
outsiders
Source: Statistics Canada.
Iceland – Land of the Vikings
• Uninhabited until 874
• Under Norwegian and
Danish rule until 1944
• Poor country dependent
on fishing and livestock
until recently
Over half the population lives in
Reykjavik
• First country in the world
to conduct complete
modern census 1703
(good statistics)
The rest is pretty empty
Population fluctuations in Iceland
Icelandic demographic history marked by
swings in births and deaths and net migration
Source: Statistics Iceland. Migration statistics start in 1801.
Phases of Siberian and
Arctic Development
•
Pre-Soviet
•
Forced labor – ‘Opening of the North’
•
Wage increments
•
Improvement of living conditions
•
Post-Soviet – Moved Abandoned by the
State
Settlers lunching in Irkutsk
Gulag labor building the rail line to Murmansk
Forced labor and the development
of the Soviet Arctic
Millions were sent to Siberia and the Arctic to rapidly industrialize the Soviet Union
at the time of the first Five-Year Plan in 1928.
The Arctic economy was controlled by the labor camp administrations or GULAG
Source: Martin Gilbert, The Routledge Atlas of Russian History. Third Edition, 2002.
The Northern Sea Route and
development of the Soviet Arctic
The Northern Sea route was a massive and heavilysubsidized component of Arctic development
Source: Martin Gilbert, The Routledge Atlas of Russian History. Third Edition, 2002.
Figure 2: Size of the Urban Population in the Russian North,
1989 and 2010 (in order by size of urban population in 1989)
Khanty-Mansiy AO
Arkhangel'sk Oblast
Murmansk Oblast
Komi Republic
Sakha Republic (Yakutia)
Karelian Republic
Sakhalin Oblast
Kamchatka Oblast
Yamal-Nenets AO
Magadan Oblast
Chukotka AO
2010
1989
Taymyr AO
Nenets AO
Koryak AO
Evenki AO
0
200
400
Source: Rosstat, 1989, 2002, and 2010 census results.
600
800
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
The rapid growth of cities in the Soviet Arctic
Figure 4: Population size in selected Arctic and Northern cities,
1897 to 2010
500
450
Arkhangel'sk (Arkhangel'sk)
400
Murmansk (Murmansk)
Thousands
Surgut (Khanty-Mansiy Okrug)
350
Yakutsk (Sakha Republic)
300
Nizhnevartovsk (Khanty-Mansiy Okrug)
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (Sakhalin)
250
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy (Kamchatka)
200
Noril'sk (Krasnoyarsk)
Nefteyugansk (Khanty-Mansiy Okrug)
150
Novyy Urengoy (Yamal-Nenets Okrug)
Magadan (Magadan)
100
Vorkuta (Komi Republic)
50
0
1897
1926
1939
1959
1970
1979
1989
2002
2010
The centrally-planned economy of the Soviet Union put large numbers of people
into the Arctic
Eleven of 12 cities in the Arctic with populations over 100,000 are in Russia (other
is Anchorage, Alaska)
“To the North”
• 52 percent stated that their
reason for moving to the
North was to earn money
(males 59 percent, females
45 percent)
• With a spouse or parents, 50
percent of females against
15 percent of males
• A desire to see the world or
romanticism (13 percent of
respondents)
The long list of northern benefits
Source: Survey by Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) in 1997-1998 for the World Bank, of 582 persons
who had migrated from one of the 16 regions of the Far North to four regions elsewhere in Russia, 1998.
Depopulation of the Russian Arctic
The Triple Transition:
- transition away from a centrally-planned economy towards a market economy
- break up of the Soviet Union
- liberalization of society, including freedom of movement.
Source: Heleniak, “Migration and Population Change in the Russian Far North during the 1990s”,
Migration in the Circumpolar North: Issues and Contexts, 2010.
The Russian state withdraws from Northern development
•
In Soviet times, northern entitlements
supported through centrally-planed
transfers, over 3 percent of GDP
•
Burden shifted in 1993 to regions and
private sector. Most go unpaid.
•
Soviet development of the Arctic became
unsustainable in Russia’s new market
economy
Federal Financing of Fuel and Foodstuff Shipments
to the North, 1992 to 1997 ("The Northern Shipment")
Percent of GDP
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Source: World Bank, Economic and Social Issues of Migrtaion from the Russian North, Policy Note, 1998.
1997
Winter after 1998 financial crisis
Northerners vote with their feet
• “We always viewed our
stay in the North as
temporary” (29 percent
of respondents, who
could give up to three
reasons)
• It “became senseless to
stay in the North” (27
percent)
• We “wanted to get back
to our native place,
relatives, friends” (23
percent)
Source: NEI survey of northern migrants. Heleniak, “Population
Change in the Periphery: Changing Migration Patterns in the Russian
North”, Sibirica: Interdisciplinary Journal of Siberian Studies, Winter
2010, pp. 9-40.
The waters of “Archipelago Russia” rise
• Number of settlements in the
North has declined by 10
percent from 1989 to 2002
• In the North in 2002, 12 percent
of villages were ghost towns,
including 42 percent in
Magadan
• Population in Magadan city
increased from 39 to 54 percent
of the oblast, while declining
from 152 to 99 thousand
Source: Heleniak, “Changing Settlement Patterns across the Russian
North at the Turn of the Millennium”, Russia’s Northern Regions on the
Edge: Communities, industries and populations from Murmansk to
Magadan, 2008. Leslie Dienes, “Archipelago Russia: Economic Peaks in
Dead Space”, European Security Review.
Village near Lake Baykal
Abandoned housing in Murmansk
What role does attachment to place play in migration
decisions of the population of the Russian North?
• Northern population consisted of outsiders, born elsewhere,
including outside Russia
• Population declined by 1.4 million in North, of which 1.3
million of had been born outside the North
Source: Heleniak, Timothy, “The role of attachment to place in migration decisions of the population of the Russian North”,
Polar Geography, Vol. 32, Nos. 1-2, March-June 2009, pp. 31-60.
Figure 12: Relationship between Net Migration and Change in Share of
Population with Higher Education by Region in Russia, 1989 to 2002
Percentage point change in
population with higher and postgraduate education, 1989 to 2002
70
60
50
40
Moscow city
30
20
Magadan
10
Kamchatka
0
Evenki AO
Chukotka
-10
Koryak AO
-20
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Net migration, 1989 to 2002 (as percent of 1989 population)
Positive correlation between net migration and
change in educational levels of the population
40
The Soviet Russian state intervenes
• Resulting northern
population was older, less
educated, and less mobile
Northern Restructuring Project
1. The Federal Policy Component ($3 million)
2. The Migration Assistance Component ($76
million)
3. The Local Restructuring Component ($6
million)
• Migration assistance
programs at federal,
regional, and enterprise
levels
Abandoned settlement
in Magadan
Applying for the
Migration
Assistance Program in
Vorkuta, Komi Republic.
4. The Monitoring and Evaluation Component
($1.2 million)
5. The Project Management Component ($8
million)
Total project costs: $94.4 million (IBRD $80
million)
Conclusions
• Level of economic activity and size of
population in these regions during Soviet
period are not sustainable during postSoviet period
• With downsizing of population and
infrastructure, are remaining settlements
sustainable, those growing or declining?
• What about remaining infrastructure?
Thank you. Questions?
[email protected]