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A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for food, fibre and fuel? Sten Nilsson 200th Anniversary of The Royal Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Stockholm, 29-30 January 2013 CHANGING MIDDLE CLASS – ADDITIONALLY 3 BILLION IN 2030 FOOD CONSUMPTION GLOBAL LIVESTOCK Today: 60 billion – 2050: 100 billion Source: State of the World, 2012; and USAgriTech, Inc., 2008. ENERGY CONSUMPTION – 2010-2040 + 30% Source: Ray, C. Blog: Real Firewood Stacking (11 Dec 2012); and ExxonMobil – 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 VOLUMES OF NEW BIO-BASED PRODUCTS ? WATER BALANCE 2030 in km3 Source: RatesToGo 2007-2011; and Charting Our Water Future, The Water Resources Group, 2010. HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE Additional land requirements by 2030: 120 million ha = area of South Africa Source: Seto, KC et al, PNAS 109 (40) 16083-16088, 2 October 2012. NATURE INFRASTRUCTURE – ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT 2050 = 2.5 WORLDS Source: McGlade, J., European Environment Agency, 2011. THE RESOURCE CHALLENGE • Finding new sources of supply of natural resources is becoming increasingly challenging and expensive • Resources are increasingly linked. Changes in one resource impacts others • Environmental factors increasingly constrain the utilization • Increasing societal concerns over the utilization of the natural resources • Meeting future demands will require a large expansion of supply TOTAL LAND… Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO …subtracting built-up areas Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO …subtracting cultivated land Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO …subtracting forest areas Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO …excluding non-vegetated areas Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO …excluding protected areas Undefined < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Protected Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO …subtracting land with steep slopes Undefined < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Protected Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO …excluding climatically unsuit-able or very marginal areas Undefined < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Protected Unproductive Very marginal Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO 2.1 billion ha left – Grasslands Sources: IIASA,LUC (2007) and Pic: http://nrelscience.org/2012/02/19/are-all-grasslands-created-equal-predicting-grasslanddynamics-in-china-based-on-us-grassland-models/ Density of ruminant livestock (cattle equiv./ha) – 700 mha available Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO and FAO, 2005. Intensity of grass/scrub/wood land (%) WHERE DOES LAND COME FROM IN 2030? HOW TO BALANCE THE DEMAND? Availability 250-300 million ha Industrial Forestry 25 million ha Agriculture Bioenergy Demand 290 million ha 200 million ha Biochemical Industry ? Source: Nilsson (2007) Deficit: 220-250 million ha LAND BALANCES Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011 Deficit: 0-435 million ha in 2030 based on unused land and additional land needed. With accumulated deforestation of 150-300 million ha in total, the land deficit will be 0-285 million ha IIASA and WWF, 2011 Business as usual, accumulated deforestation by 2050 of 230 million ha (no deficit of agricultural land) McKinsey Global Institute, 2011 Deficit of 175-220 million ha of cropland in 2030 to cover food, feed, and fuel demands (productivity increase in agriculture: 1% per year) WHAT DOES ALL THIS TELL US? • We know nothing Uncertainty in data sets greater than 50% • We CAN fix it ‘We just have to do the right things in the right place’ is another argument. Will we do it? Probably not… • ‘There is a huge land use problem (200-300 mha deficit) ‘There is no unused land in reality’ (Persson 2007) LARGE SCALE LAND USE CONFLICTS ALREADY EXIST INTERNATIONAL LAND GRABBING SINCE 2000 Oxfam (2012): 230 million ha 30% is forest land Number of hectares (millions) cross-referenced: ~70 million ha Number of hectares (millions) reported: ~ 200 million ha Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Large-Scale Land Acquisitions – An International Overview, Rights + Resources Institute, 18 Dec. 2012. DOMESTIC LAND GRABBING – INDIA Additional land requirements by 2030 (agrifuel, infrastructure, extractive activities, nonconventional energy): 11.5 million ha corresponding to 4% of the total land area Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Land Acquisition and Related Disputes, Rights + Resources Institute, 18 Dec. 2012. AVERAGE AGRICULTURE LAND PRICES IN US$ PER HA IN SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL ha <7.26 7.26-24.2 24.2-72.6 72.6-242.0 242.0+ 2006 6680 5580 4990 4280 3890 2012 12 260 10 080 8865 7880 7350 Source: Economic Agriculture Institute, Brazil, 2012. Average price relation 2012: North: 100 Northeast: 266 Central Western: 300 Southeast: 564 South: 662 Source: Kory Melby’s Brazilian Ag Consulting Services and Investment Tours, 1 Nov. 2012. UNPLANTED URUGUAYAN FOREST LAND PRICES • Marginal cost of pulpwood in Uruguay at parity with marginal costs in the Nordic countries • Land prices in Uruguay have increased by 5x during last 10 years • In 2000, good quality forest land with deep soil sold for US$ 500/ha, and similar land with shallower soils now selling for US$ 2,500-3,000/ha • 28 000 land transactions in Australia, 1992-2012; 6% real price increase/yr. Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010 AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION IS OF MAJOR CONCERN Source: NATURE, Vol 466, 29 July 2010 GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION: 1995-2005 Source: Science news, The Green Revolution is Wilting, 18 Dec. 2012. WATER AND AGRICULTURE • Today agriculture accounts for 70-75% of human freshwater consumption • In 2030 a gap of 40% between demand and supply of freshwater is foreseen • By 2030 farming will need 45% more freshwater compared to the consumption today AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION 1988-2000 About 80 million ha forest grabbing Source: Gibbs, HK et al, PNAS 107 (38) 16732-16737, 2010. POTENTIALS FOR CHANGE Forest restorations in South Korea Source: Kwang-Il Tak, Kookmin University, Seoul, Korea FOREST LANDSCAPE RESTORATION POTENTIAL (million hectares, excluding the boreal) Higher probability Lower probability Broad-scale Mosaic Irrigated croplands Rainfed croplands Temperate 49 190 158 592 Humid Tropics 205 230 111 259 Dry Tropics 19 643 110 456 Total 272 1063 379 1306 Source: Lars Laestadius, World Resources Institute, and Peter Potapov , South Dakota State University, 2010 CROPLAND CONVERSION TO PRODUCTIVE LAND • There are 240-290 Mha accumulated of degraded croplands during the last 100 years which could be converted to productive cropland (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011) • There are 300 Mha of agricultural land that could become more productive and sustainable through agro-forestry (IPFRI, 2006) VERTICAL FARMING Source: Nelson, B. Could vertical farming be the future? Frontiers on NBC News, 12 Dec. 2007. IN-VITRO MEAT PRODUCTION No land, no farmers, no animals, no mucking Source: Dagens Nyheter (Swedish newspaper) published on 30 Aug. 2011; http://www.dn.se/nyheter/vetenskap/odlatkott-kan-minska-miljoproblem INDUSTRIAL WOOD DEMAND INCREASE TO 2030 IS SIZEABLE Source: Jan Wintzell, Pöyry, Sept. 2011 DEMAND OF WOOD FOR ENERGY (Whiteman, A., 2011 – in billion m3 RWE) Heat & Power (primary solid biomass) Traditional solid biomass Coal replacement Biofuels 2020 2030 3.0 3.25 5.3 5.0 1.5 2.95 0.9-1.25 1.25-1.75 2020 EU Wood/biomass deficit 100-150 million m3/yr RUSSIA Same harvest level as today, or lower JAPAN Wood deficit: 50-60 million m3/yr CHINA Wood deficit: 150-200 million m3/yr OCEANIA + 40 million m3/yr of industrial wood SE ASIA Deficit. 20 million m3/yr lower harvest INDIA Wood deficit: 20-30 million m3/yr AFRICA Wood deficit: 35 million m3/yr LATIN AMERICA + 190 million m3/yr of industrial wood; domestically consumed U.S.A CANADA ??? Reduced harvest by 50-70 million m3/yr of industrial wood OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NORTH • Dramatically changed future global landscapes • Nordic countries (and the Boreal region) have, on average, more available land, forests, and water resources per capita than other regions. • The Nordic nature production systems are more robust than in many other regions of the world • Land resources in the Nordic countries (and the Boreal region) will become more and more valuable – if managed correctly. THE WAY FORWARD – 1 • TODAY • Short-term single-output thinking • Businesses think in terms of market supply chains; farmers and forest owners think in terms of their land; governments think about environmental issues through regulations and setting aside protected areas; financial industries think about investments in sectors and individual firms. Policies and planning are undertaken by sector and are conflicting between sectors. • Land use issues most often fall between agriculture, forestry, environment, industry, and economic ministries • Industry-based strategies and business models are based on constant or falling real prices of resource inputs THE WAY FORWARD – 2 TOMORROW • Tackling the resource agenda must start with a shift of mind sets and mechanisms among stake holders and institutions. • New mind sets must reach across traditional sector boundaries to deal with the interconnected problems and opportunities of food-, forest-, energy-production, ecosystem services, water supply, societal services, rural development, etc., and must provide sources of synergy and broader economic policymaking. • Integrated landscape approach applied as an organizing framework. • The conventional forest value chain which tells the story from the forest to the consumer is obsolete – the relevant one is the landscape value chain. • The landscape approach is fundamental to meet future natural resource demands. LANDSCAPE APPROACH Productivity/Production Revolution Through Increased Synergy Effects Production of natural values = stocks and states; biodiversity, climate, wildlife, water, etc. over large scale landscapes Forest production = flows; wood and money created in individual stands Production of societal values = stocks and states created over large scale landsapes WHERE TO BEGIN? • The Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry has, for 200 years, been successful but has separated forestry and agriculture issues. It is time for an new structure which can stimulate a dialogue on a future integrated land use. • The Life Sciences universities (in Sweden, SLU) are, through the boundaries set by the Faculties, efficiently hindering integrated land use thinking. Tear down the Faculties! • Re-organize the relevant Ministries and their agencies into one Natural Resource Ministry with affiliated agencies! Thank you for your attention! Sten B. Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB TT Banan 12, S-77 693 Hedemora, Sweden Phone/Fax: +46 225 381 02 – Cell: +46 70 381 02 14 Email: [email protected] and Guest Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria – www.iiasa.ac.at