Download A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for food, fibre

A GLOBAL OVERVIEW:
Is there enough land for
food, fibre and fuel?
Sten Nilsson
200th Anniversary of The Royal Academy of
Agriculture and Forestry
Stockholm, 29-30 January 2013
CHANGING MIDDLE CLASS – ADDITIONALLY
3 BILLION IN 2030
FOOD CONSUMPTION
GLOBAL LIVESTOCK
Today: 60 billion – 2050: 100 billion
Source: State of the World, 2012; and USAgriTech, Inc., 2008.
ENERGY CONSUMPTION – 2010-2040 + 30%
Source: Ray, C. Blog: Real Firewood Stacking (11 Dec 2012); and ExxonMobil – 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
VOLUMES OF NEW BIO-BASED PRODUCTS ?
WATER BALANCE 2030 in km3
Source: RatesToGo 2007-2011; and Charting Our Water Future, The Water Resources Group, 2010.
HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE
Additional land requirements by 2030:
120 million ha = area of South Africa
Source: Seto, KC et al, PNAS 109 (40) 16083-16088, 2 October 2012.
NATURE INFRASTRUCTURE – ECOLOGICAL
FOOTPRINT 2050 = 2.5 WORLDS
Source: McGlade, J., European Environment Agency, 2011.
THE RESOURCE CHALLENGE
• Finding new sources of supply of natural
resources is becoming increasingly challenging
and expensive
• Resources are increasingly linked. Changes in
one resource impacts others
• Environmental factors increasingly constrain the
utilization
• Increasing societal concerns over the utilization
of the natural resources
• Meeting future demands will require a large
expansion of supply
TOTAL LAND…
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
…subtracting built-up areas
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
…subtracting cultivated land
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
…subtracting forest areas
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
…excluding non-vegetated areas
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
…excluding protected areas
Undefined
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Protected
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
…subtracting land with steep slopes
Undefined
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Protected
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
…excluding climatically unsuit-able
or very marginal areas
Undefined
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Protected
Unproductive
Very marginal
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
2.1 billion ha left – Grasslands
Sources: IIASA,LUC (2007) and Pic: http://nrelscience.org/2012/02/19/are-all-grasslands-created-equal-predicting-grasslanddynamics-in-china-based-on-us-grassland-models/
Density of ruminant livestock (cattle equiv./ha) – 700 mha available
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO and FAO, 2005.
Intensity of grass/scrub/wood land (%)
WHERE DOES LAND COME FROM IN 2030?
HOW TO BALANCE THE DEMAND?
Availability
250-300 million ha
Industrial Forestry
25 million ha
Agriculture
Bioenergy
Demand
290 million ha
200 million ha
Biochemical
Industry
?
Source: Nilsson (2007)
Deficit:
220-250 million ha
LAND BALANCES
Lambin and Meyfroidt,
2011
Deficit: 0-435 million ha in 2030
based on unused land and additional
land needed.
With accumulated deforestation of
150-300 million ha in total, the land
deficit will be 0-285 million ha
IIASA and WWF, 2011
Business as usual, accumulated
deforestation by 2050 of 230 million
ha (no deficit of agricultural land)
McKinsey Global
Institute, 2011
Deficit of 175-220 million ha of
cropland in 2030 to cover food, feed,
and fuel demands (productivity
increase in agriculture: 1% per year)
WHAT DOES ALL THIS TELL US?
• We know nothing
Uncertainty in data sets greater than 50%
• We CAN fix it ‘We just have to do the right
things in the right place’ is another
argument.
Will we do it? Probably not…
• ‘There is a huge land use problem (200-300
mha deficit)
‘There is no unused land in reality’ (Persson
2007)
LARGE SCALE LAND USE CONFLICTS
ALREADY EXIST
INTERNATIONAL LAND GRABBING
SINCE 2000
Oxfam (2012): 230 million ha
30% is forest land
Number of hectares (millions) cross-referenced: ~70 million ha
Number of hectares (millions) reported:
~ 200 million ha
Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Large-Scale Land Acquisitions – An International Overview, Rights + Resources Institute,
18 Dec. 2012.
DOMESTIC LAND GRABBING – INDIA
Additional land
requirements by 2030
(agrifuel, infrastructure,
extractive activities, nonconventional energy):
11.5 million ha
corresponding to
4% of the total land area
Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Land Acquisition and Related Disputes, Rights + Resources Institute, 18 Dec. 2012.
AVERAGE AGRICULTURE LAND PRICES IN
US$ PER HA IN SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL
ha
<7.26
7.26-24.2
24.2-72.6
72.6-242.0
242.0+
2006
6680
5580
4990
4280
3890
2012
12 260
10 080
8865
7880
7350
Source: Economic Agriculture Institute, Brazil, 2012.
Average price relation 2012:
North:
100
Northeast:
266
Central Western: 300
Southeast:
564
South:
662
Source: Kory Melby’s Brazilian Ag Consulting Services and Investment Tours, 1 Nov. 2012.
UNPLANTED URUGUAYAN FOREST
LAND PRICES
• Marginal cost of pulpwood in Uruguay at parity with marginal costs in the
Nordic countries
• Land prices in Uruguay have increased by 5x during last 10 years
• In 2000, good quality forest land with deep soil sold for US$ 500/ha, and
similar land with shallower soils now selling for US$ 2,500-3,000/ha
• 28 000 land transactions in Australia, 1992-2012; 6% real price increase/yr.
Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010
AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION IS OF
MAJOR CONCERN
Source: NATURE, Vol 466, 29 July 2010
GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION: 1995-2005
Source: Science news, The Green Revolution is Wilting, 18 Dec. 2012.
WATER AND AGRICULTURE
• Today agriculture accounts for 70-75% of
human freshwater consumption
• In 2030 a gap of 40% between demand
and supply of freshwater is foreseen
• By 2030 farming will need 45% more
freshwater compared to the consumption
today
AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION 1988-2000
About 80 million ha forest grabbing
Source: Gibbs, HK et al, PNAS 107 (38) 16732-16737, 2010.
POTENTIALS FOR CHANGE
Forest restorations
in South Korea
Source: Kwang-Il Tak, Kookmin University, Seoul, Korea
FOREST LANDSCAPE RESTORATION
POTENTIAL
(million hectares, excluding the boreal)
Higher probability
Lower probability
Broad-scale
Mosaic
Irrigated croplands
Rainfed croplands
Temperate
49
190
158
592
Humid Tropics
205
230
111
259
Dry Tropics
19
643
110
456
Total
272
1063
379
1306
Source: Lars Laestadius, World Resources Institute, and Peter Potapov , South Dakota State University, 2010
CROPLAND CONVERSION TO
PRODUCTIVE LAND
• There are 240-290 Mha accumulated of degraded
croplands during the last 100 years which could be
converted to productive cropland (Lambin and
Meyfroidt, 2011)
• There are 300 Mha of
agricultural land that
could become more
productive and sustainable
through agro-forestry
(IPFRI, 2006)
VERTICAL FARMING
Source: Nelson, B. Could vertical farming be the future? Frontiers on NBC News, 12 Dec. 2007.
IN-VITRO MEAT PRODUCTION
No land, no farmers, no animals, no mucking
Source: Dagens Nyheter (Swedish newspaper) published on 30 Aug. 2011; http://www.dn.se/nyheter/vetenskap/odlatkott-kan-minska-miljoproblem
INDUSTRIAL WOOD DEMAND INCREASE TO
2030 IS SIZEABLE
Source: Jan Wintzell, Pöyry, Sept. 2011
DEMAND OF WOOD FOR ENERGY
(Whiteman, A., 2011 – in billion m3 RWE)
Heat & Power
(primary solid
biomass)
Traditional solid
biomass
Coal replacement
Biofuels
2020
2030
3.0
3.25
5.3
5.0
1.5
2.95
0.9-1.25
1.25-1.75
2020
EU
Wood/biomass deficit 100-150 million m3/yr
RUSSIA
Same harvest level as today, or lower
JAPAN
Wood deficit: 50-60 million m3/yr
CHINA
Wood deficit: 150-200 million m3/yr
OCEANIA
+ 40 million m3/yr of industrial wood
SE ASIA
Deficit. 20 million m3/yr lower harvest
INDIA
Wood deficit: 20-30 million m3/yr
AFRICA
Wood deficit: 35 million m3/yr
LATIN
AMERICA
+ 190 million m3/yr of industrial wood; domestically
consumed
U.S.A
CANADA
???
Reduced harvest by 50-70 million m3/yr of industrial
wood
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NORTH
• Dramatically changed future global
landscapes
• Nordic countries (and the Boreal region)
have, on average, more available land,
forests, and water resources per capita than
other regions.
• The Nordic nature production systems are
more robust than in many other regions of
the world
• Land resources in the Nordic countries (and
the Boreal region) will become more and
more valuable – if managed correctly.
THE WAY FORWARD – 1
• TODAY
• Short-term single-output thinking
• Businesses think in terms of market supply chains;
farmers and forest owners think in terms of their land;
governments think about environmental issues through
regulations and setting aside protected areas; financial
industries think about investments in sectors and
individual firms. Policies and planning are undertaken by
sector and are conflicting between sectors.
• Land use issues most often fall between agriculture,
forestry, environment, industry, and economic ministries
• Industry-based strategies and business models are
based on constant or falling real prices of resource inputs
THE WAY FORWARD – 2
TOMORROW
• Tackling the resource agenda must start with a shift of mind sets
and mechanisms among stake holders and institutions.
• New mind sets must reach across traditional sector boundaries
to deal with the interconnected problems and opportunities of
food-, forest-, energy-production, ecosystem services, water
supply, societal services, rural development, etc., and must
provide sources of synergy and broader economic policymaking.
• Integrated landscape approach applied as an organizing
framework.
• The conventional forest
value chain which tells the story from
the forest to the consumer is obsolete – the relevant one is the
landscape value chain.
• The landscape approach is
fundamental to meet future
natural resource demands.
LANDSCAPE APPROACH
Productivity/Production Revolution Through Increased Synergy Effects
Production of natural
values = stocks and
states; biodiversity,
climate, wildlife, water,
etc. over large scale
landscapes
Forest production =
flows; wood and money
created in individual
stands
Production of societal
values = stocks and
states created over
large scale landsapes
WHERE TO BEGIN?
• The Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and
Forestry has, for 200 years, been successful but
has separated forestry and agriculture issues. It
is time for an new structure which can stimulate
a dialogue on a future integrated land use.
• The Life Sciences universities (in Sweden, SLU)
are, through the boundaries set by the Faculties,
efficiently hindering integrated land use thinking.
Tear down the Faculties!
• Re-organize the relevant Ministries and their
agencies into one Natural Resource Ministry
with affiliated agencies!
Thank you for your attention!
Sten B. Nilsson
CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB
TT Banan 12, S-77 693 Hedemora, Sweden
Phone/Fax: +46 225 381 02 – Cell: +46 70 381 02 14
Email: [email protected]
and
Guest Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria – www.iiasa.ac.at