Download REAL WORLD ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DATA Econ

REAL WORLD ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DATA
Econ-GB.2347
Peter D'Antonio
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (516) 993-5990
Office hours: Tuesday, 5 - 6 pm or by appointment
Class time: Tuesday, 6 - 9 pm
Course Overview
Objective: This course is designed for business professionals whose interactions require
a working understanding of the state of the economy. Students will learn how to put the
wide array of economic data into a coherent framework to make judgments about
business activity and markets. We will cover each of the major data releases – including
GDP, employment and unemployment, consumer spending, inflation and business
surveys – discussing what makes them important to markets and the outlook. Other topics
include business cycles, economic modeling, monetary and fiscal policy, and
forecasting. Upon completion of this course, students will have the tools to understand
and interpret data, and to dispel some common misconceptions.
Prerequisite: Students should have taken at least one Macroeconomics course and be
familiar with the basic building blocks of the economy.
Organization: Each class will include a discussion of the topic listed in the course
schedule, as well as an analysis of the latest economic data releases and how they fit into
the overall economic outlook. The class will also focus on how markets interpret and
respond to new information.
Grades will reflect a midterm (20%), a final exam (35%), homework (15%), a final paper
(15%), and class participation (15%). Tests will cover class material and required
readings.
Office hours will be held during the hour just prior to each class. Other appointments can
be arranged by email.
Readings: The required readings are articles and transcripts of speeches that go to the
heart of each session topic. These readings are listed in the course schedule and should be
read before class. Links to these readings will be posted in the Lessons section of NYU
Classes. In addition, students will be expected to read the Wall Street Journal or the New
York Times Business Section to keep abreast of economic developments. They should
feel free to ask questions and raise issues from the news during class.
Assignments: Students will be given four homework assignments during the semester,
dealing with different aspects of the most important economic releases. The objective of
these assignments will be to familiarize students with the data, especially how they are
collected and compiled, how they fit into the overall economic outlook, and what market
impact they normally have. These assignments will be posted on NYU Classes. Students
may confer with each other on these assignments, but each individual must submit his/her
own work. All assignments are due at the start of class.
In addition, students will be asked to pick an indicator to study in depth and write a final
paper about it. They will then present a (brief) synopsis of the indicator to the class.
Important Dates
March 22 Midterm
May 3 Final
Course Schedule:
Week 1 – February 9
Introduction and overview of the course
The goals of economic analysis and what it tells us about markets.
The need to fuse actual economic data with the theory to build a real-world
economic framework.
Introduce the four approaches to GDP accounting that form the basis for organizing
data releases.
Data focus: GDP
Week 2 – February 16
Discussion of data collection
Where data come from and how they are put together
Focus on pitfalls of data use and how they are addressed
Characteristics of data and the usefulness to markets
Data focus: Retail Sales
Reading:
Fleming, Michael J. and Eli M. Remolona, “What Moves the Bond Market,” Journal of
Economic Literature, Vol. 3, December 1997.
Week 3 – February 23
Expenditure approach to GDP
Discuss elements of demand: consumption, investment, government, and trade
Look at swing factors and assess what the data say about the underlying path of
growth
Data focus: Consumption
Reading:
D'Antonio, Peter, “Four Approaches to GDP Accounting," handout.
Week 4 – March 1
Employment, income, and production approaches to GDP
How these approaches are calculated and how the information is used
Data focus: Employment
Homework #1 due
Readings:
Yellen, Janet L., "Labor Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy," speech at the Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, August 22, 2014.
Bernanke, Ben S., “Recent Developments in the Labor Market,” speech at National
Association for Business Economics Annual Conference, March 26, 2012.
Week 5 – March 8
Business cycle dynamics
How the economy (and the data) move through expansions and contractions
Focus on imbalances and corrections
Role of exogenous shocks and policy
Data focus: Housing – the root of the latest downturn
Reading:
Foote, Christopher L. et al, “Why Did So Many People Make So Many Ex Post Bad
Decisions? The Causes of the Foreclosure Crisis,” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Public Policy Discussion Paper Series, No. 12-2, April 2012.
Week 6 – March 22
Business cycles continued
Understanding why recessions begin
How recoveries emerge from the depths of recession
The difference between cyclical and structural forces
Data focus: What’s going on in the labor market?
Homework #2 due
Midterm: In class – 60 minutes
Week 7 – March 29
Tools of the trade
How and why we use models to monitor the business cycle
Benchmarking the business cycle with full employment
Economic imbalances and bubbles
Reading:
Hatzius, Jan, et al., “Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look After the Financial
Crisis,” Monetary Policy Forum, April 2010.
Week 8 – April 5
Monetary policy
The different policy options and their market impacts
Importance of communication and Fed independence
Guest speaker to talk about the financial industry, market reactions to bubbles, and
careers
Readings:
Williams, John C., “Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Past Three
Years,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, October 3, 2011.
Plosser, Charles I., “The Importance of a Regional and Independent Federal Reserve,”
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Annual Report, 2009.
Week 9 – April 12
Monetary policy
Policy rules
Unconventional policies
Data focus: Taylor rule
Homework #3 due
Readings:
Yellen, Janet L., "Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives," speech at
the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Conference, March 27, 2015.
Bernanke, Ben S., “Monetary Policy Since the Onset of Crisis,” speech at the Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, August 31, 2012.
Week 10 – April 19
Inflation and price stability
Determinants of inflation
Shocks and relative prices
Importance of expectations as a stabilizing force
Readings:
Bernanke, Ben S., “Outstanding Issues in the Analysis of Inflation,” speech at the Federal
Reserve Bank of Boston Annual Economic Conference, June 9, 2008.
Kohn, Donald L., “Lessons for Central Bankers from a Phillips Curve Framework,”
speech at Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Annual Economic Conference, June 11, 2008.
Week 11 – April 26
Fiscal policy
Fiscal policy multipliers
Temporary vs permanent tax changes, marginal tax rates, incentives
Data focus: Trade
Readings:
Yellen, Janet L., “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability,” 2014 Michel Camdessus
Central Banking Lecture, IMF, July 2, 2014.
Stein, Jeremy C., “Overheating in the Credit Markets: Origins, Measurement, and Policy
Responses,” speech at Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis symposium, February 7, 2013.
Final paper due
Week 12 – May 3
Final exam: In class – 120 minutes