Download PANIC: The Method for Confidence Intervals

yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the work of artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

German tank problem wikipedia, lookup

History of statistics wikipedia, lookup

Student's t-test wikipedia, lookup

Taylor's law wikipedia, lookup

Bootstrapping (statistics) wikipedia, lookup

Resampling (statistics) wikipedia, lookup

Misuse of statistics wikipedia, lookup

Degrees of freedom (statistics) wikipedia, lookup

Foundations of statistics wikipedia, lookup

Statistical inference wikipedia, lookup

Sufficient statistic wikipedia, lookup

Christopher, Anna, and Casey
Normal distributions
Empirical Rule
Mean, standard deviation
Parameters and statistics
A level C confidence interval for a parameter
has 2 parts.
• A confidence level is calculated from the data, usually of
the form
Estimate +- margin of error
A confidence level C, which gives the
probability that the interval will capture the
true parameter value in repeated samples
[the success rate for our method]
P: Parameter of interest- Define it
A: Assumptions/conditions
N: Name the interval
I: Interval (confidence)
C: Conclude in context
Parameter: the statistical values of a
population (represented by a Greek letter)
Define in first step of confidence interval
 µ= the true mean summer luggage weight for
Frontier Airline passengers
The data comes from an SRS from the
population of interest.
The sampling distribution of x bar is
approximately normal. (Normality).
1. By central limit theorem if sample greater than 30
2. By graphing in your calculator if you have data
Individual observations are independent;
when sampling without replacement, the
population size N is at least 10 times the
sample size n. (Independence).
Given that the sample is random, assuming it
to be SRS.
Since n=100, the CLT ensures that the
sampling distribution is normally distributed.
The population of frontier airline passengers
is certainly greater than 1000, (10x100) so the
observations are independent.
Interval: T-interval for means
Plugged in from problem
Interval: (179.03,186.97)
We are 95% confident that the true mean
summer luggage weight of Frontier Airline
passengers is between 179.03 pounds and
186.97 pounds.
We are __% confident that the true mean
[context] lies between (____,____).
P: Parameter
H: Hypothesis
A: Assumptions
N: Name the test
T: Test
O: Obtain a p value
M: Make a decision
S: Summarize in context
µ= the true mean of perceived elapsed time
during a 45 second period by smokers who
haven’t smoked in the last 24 hours
Ho: null hypothesis- the claim we seek evidence
Ha: alternative hypothesis-the claim about the
population that we are trying to find evidence
 H µ=45
Ha: µ 45
× = 59.3
Sx = 9.83
Assuming this sample to be an SRS of the
2. The normal probability plot appears linear
indicating the population to be normally
3. Independence N≥10n
N ≥(10)20
Surely there are more than 200 smokers in the
Test: One Sample T-Test
Significance level: alpha
α= .05 (1 - 95% =.05)
Your t test statistic falls in the rejection
If the p value is less than your significance
level α
If the hypothesized parameter is not
captured in the confidence interval