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Latin America Progress Report Presented to the World Bank Regional Workshop 13 September 2005 Participating countries 10 South American countries grouped into two sub-regions : 2 The Community of Andean Countries : (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela) Mercosur and Chile : ( Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) Ring countries : (Brazil and Chile) How Because of scarcity of resources the ICP draws heavily on national CPI operations for: Sample of outlets Product specifications Price collection operations Computation and editing of prices Ecuador, Uruguay, Chile and Colombia received additional funding for the ICP from their Central Bank In Paraguay and Venezuela: Central Bank does CPI Argentina, and Brazil received moral support (!) Coverage (1) The CPI coverage is urban areas for all countries. Brazil covers 6 main regions In Argentina, Paraguay and Venezuela, price collection is limited to the Capital. The ICP coverage is total GDP for all 10 countries. Coverage (2) Andean Countries Bolivia (4 cities) Peru (5 cities) Colombia (4 cities) Ecuador (2 cities) Venezuela (Caracas ) Coverage (3) Mercosur y Chile Argentina (Buenos Aires ,+) Brazil (6 regions) Chile (13 cities) Uruguay (5 cities) Paraguay (Asunción) Data Collection Collection for the ICP is conducted during a period of 4 to 6 weeks for each quarter. The period is the same for all countries The minimum period is 4 weeks but a country may decide to stretch it to 6 weeks. In June only one country was using the Tool Pack PCM for Price collection (Uruguay) Summary: Number of Products Number of Products Mercosur and Chile Total Food, Beverages and Tobacco Rest Oct-04 249 106 142 Mar-05 471 104 367 Andean Pact Jun-05 524 124 400 Oct-04 221 103 118 Mar-05 411 103 308 Jun-05 450 112 338 Data operations (1) Data are first edited by individual countries using either their CPI edit tools or Tool Pack Micro data with the exception of the name of the outlet are sent to Statistics Canada for a second edit and quality control . Formal agreements were signed between STC and each participating country to authorize the transfer of data to STC. Data operations STC calculates averages and dispersion measures. STC also calculates the QT. STC send back the aggregated data and QT to participating countries and ECLAC for further data confrontation. Every country receive the average prices and PPPs of all other participating countries. Not the micro data. Review process Errors and outliers are discussed one on one with the national coordinators before regional meeting with participating countries. After each collection period, a regional meeting is held to discuss the preliminary results. Review of errors (in group) Review of problematic specifications (in group) Individual review of country’s data At the last two meetings : May 2005 and August 2005 Quaranta tables were used for the review Operational procedures (1) Detailed and complete time-table has been established and agreed with all 10 countries for four quarters of 2005. Weekly teleconference between the regional coordinators to monitor the project. Weekly contacts with national coordinators Country Desk: each member of the team is responsible for a set of countries Operational procedures (2) For the two first quarter, field visits were done to assist countries before and during price collection This quarter, limited assistance for collection is provided for a few countries. In October 2005, before the price collection of the fourth quarter, a review and evaluation will be done in key countries to assure comparability. Meetings Four regional meetings to discuss results of quarterly price collection with price and SNA experts: May 2005 August 2005 November 2005 April 2006 Problems Too few product specifications in some basic headings Too few price collected Too few outlets Errors in collection (does not meet spec) Errors in capture of data Errors in unit of measure, etc Toolpack Problems (2) Problems in individual countries: Strike in Brazil Changes of government in Bolivia, Ecuador Sharp reduction of staff in Venezuela Problems of resources in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay Solutions Reduction of scope for third quarter Special collections in July and August to adjust second quarter Re-inforcing the quality assurance of micro-data in countries Mission of evaluation in October in key countries Maintain tight timetable Example of timetable: 2st Quarter 2005 Field Visits to countries : 1 May - 30 June Colombia, and Ecuador (3) collection: 15 May – 30 June Preparation of micro data: 1- 12 July Price Transmission of Food components :12 July Transmission of rest of basket :18 July Edit and aggregation at STC: 18 - 29 July Transmission of aggregates : 3 August Example of timetable: 2st Quarter 2005 (2) Regional meeting in Montevideo for revision of 2st Q of 2005 Mercosur & Chile : 8 -11 August Andean community : 12 -16 August SNA experts: 8 -10 August Q price collection : 15 August – 30 September 3nd Example of timetable: 2st Quarter 2005 Regional meeting in Montevideo with national accountants for: Discussion of March’s PPP Preparation of consumption weights Methodology of construction, M&E and government Establishment of timetable for deliverable Timetable for Consumption Fourth quarter price collection: 1 nov- 15 dec 2005 Revision of 4th Q : Jan-Feb 2006 Aggregation of 2005 : March 2006 ECLAC-STC review of 2005 : mid March 2006 Final review by all countries : 3-7 April 2006 Preliminary publication of consumption: June 2006 Ring: Chile (March-April 2006) Brazil (May 2006) Timetable for GDP Revised GDP weights from SNA : 30 sept Videoconference : 12 Oct 2005 Price collection for: Establishment of criteria for the concordance between national and ICP classifications construction : nov 05 - jan 06 machinery and equipment : dec 05 – feb 06 Government : nov 05 – march 06 Review of data : May-August Publication of total GDP 2006 : December 2006 Plans Calculate an average of 4 quarters for all countries when possible Aggregation procedures Analysis of the data (by outlets, districts) Price collection for construction, M&E and Government ( 4th Q 2005 and 1st 2006) Ring (2nd Q of 2006) Publication of consumption : June 2006 Publication of GDP : Dec 2006 Plan 09 Collection x Data review 10 11 12 2006 1 x x x Annual aggregation 2 3 Government Construction M&E Total GDP 5 6 7 8 9 … 12 x x xx x Publication consumption GDP weights 4 x x x x x x x x x x xx x x x x Afterthoughts Risks Translation Manuals Toolpack