Download An Economic Perspective

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bio-era™
One World–One Health: An Economic
Perspective
Beyond Zoonoses: The Threat of Emerging Diseases
to Human Security and Conservation, and the
Implications for Public Policy
James Newcomb
Bio Economic Research Associates (bio era)
November 15, 2004
Bangkok, Thailand
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Diseases
$50bn
SARS
China, Hong Kong,
Singapore, Canada
$30-50bn
Estimated Cost
$40bn
$30bn
Foot & Mouth
UK
$25–30bn
$20bn
BSE UK,
$10-13bn
$10bn
Foot & Mouth
Taiwan, $5-8bn
Classical
Swine Fever,
Netherlands
$2.3bn
BSE
Japan
$1.5bn
HPAI, Italy
$400m
Nipah, Malaysia
$350-400m
1994
1995
1996
1997
Figures are estimates and are presented as relative size.
1998
1999
Avian Flu Asia,
$5–10bn
2000
BSE Canada
$1.5bn
Avian Flu, NL
$500m
2001
2002
BSE U.S.,
$3.5bn
2003
2004 2005
2006
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Livestock Disease Economics
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Livestock Disease Risks: Widening Concerns
• Recent animal disease outbreaks have affected one-third
of global meat exports (UN/FAO)
• Economic impacts of major livestock disease outbreaks
in the past 10 years exceed $80 billion
• Concerns about human health risks of emerging
infectious diseases are increasing (SARS, avian flu, Nipah
virus)
• Rapid growth of Asia’s livestock industries poses new
challenges
• Global trade and travel increase the interconnectedness
of livestock producers worldwide
• Pathogen exchanges with wildlife populations could be
significant
• Bioterrorism aimed at agricultural targets is possible
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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bio-era™
One World–One Health: An Economic
Perspective
1. Inevitable Collisions: Projected Increases in Livestock
Populations Will Create New Ecosystem Stresses
2. Network Dynamics: Highly Interconnected Systems Are
Vulnerable to Epidemics
3. Policy Responses Must Take the Long View
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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UN Population Projections (Bn)
12
10
8
High variant
Medium variant
6
Low variant
Actual
4
2
50
20
45
20
40
20
35
20
30
20
25
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
20
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
65
19
60
19
55
19
19
50
0
Source: United Nations Secretariat, “World Population Prospects: 2002 Revision”
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Meat Consumption and Income Trends
Log of
per
capita
Consumption
of
Meat
(19711995
avg.)
5
4
Philippines
China
Trend
3
2
1
4
5
India
6
7
8
9
10
Log of per capita GNP (1971-95 avg.)
11
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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World Meat Consumption:
1983-2020
200
Million Metric Tons
180
160
140
Developing world
120
Developed world
100
80
60
20
20
93
19
19
83
40
Source: IFPRI, “Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution”
FAO Annual Data. Total meat consumption for 1983 and 1993 are three-year moving averages.
2020 projections come from IFPRI’s global model, IMPACT
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Projected Species Production
160
140
Million Metric Tons
120
100
80
60
40
Pork
Poultry
Beef and Veal
Misc.
2024
2021
2018
2015
2012
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
20
Mutton and Lamb
Source: Center for Global Food Issues
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Brazil Chicken Meat Production and Exports:
1964-2004
9
Million Metric Tons *RTC
8
7
6
5
Production
Exports
4
3
2
1
04
02
20
00
20
98
20
96
19
94
19
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
19
70
19
68
19
66
19
19
64
0
Source: FAOSTAT
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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China Chicken Meat Production and Imports:
1987-2004
12
Million Metric Tons *RTC
10
8
Imports
6
Production
4
2
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
87
19
89
19
91
0
Source: FAOSTAT
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Thailand Chicken Meat Production and Exports:
1964-2004
1.5
Million Metric Tons *RTC
1.3
1.0
Production
0.8
Exports
0.5
0.3
03
20
01
20
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
19
75
0.0
Source: FAOSTAT
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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The Global Meat Trade is Highly Concentrated
Source: Center for Global Food Issues
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Percent of Global Meat Production Exported
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
0%
Source: Center for Global Food Issues
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Network Theory Offers Important New Tools for
Analyzing and Managing Disease Risks
• Network models (scale-free, small world, urban, etc.) give
fundamental new insights into epidemiology
• Scale-free networks are especially vulnerable, but can be
made more robust by focusing control measures at hubs
• Network theory has significant practical applications in
understanding and managing livestock diseases through
application of “contact tracking” to identify hubs
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Poisson distribution
Exponential Network
Power-law distribution
Scale-free Network
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Emerging Infectious Diseases: What Are the
Linkages Among Wildlife, Domestic Animals and
Humans?
•
Fundamental forces are
driving new infection
disease threats for livestock
•
Avian influenza poses
especially large potential
risks
•
Emerging diseases are
causing significant
economic disruptions
Source: Daszak, Cunningham, and Hyatt,
Science, January 2000
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Control and Mitigation Methods Are Evolving
Quickly
• Mass culling has been
effective, but at very high cost
• Trade embargoes are crude
tools to control disease
• New monitoring and detection
systems are being put in
place
• Vaccination is now being
used, but evolutionary
implications are unknown
• Rapid testing technologies
have been developed
• Changes in livestock
practices are being explored
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Institutional Responses to Avian Flu:
Recommendations of OIE/CDC/WHO
• Surveillance and separation systems to limit contact
between wild birds and poultry
• Strategies to ensure the purity of drinking water supplies
for poultry
• Tight control measures over livestock movement in
affected areas
• Bird-proofing of poultry sheds to prevent contact
between wild birds, especially migrating waterfowl, and
poultry
• Protection for workers during culling operations
including protective clothing and vaccinations
• Financial support for losses incurred by farmers culling
their flocks
• Endorsement of vaccination strategies as complement to
culling
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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Sustainable Long-Term Solutions May Require
Innovative Science and Policy
• Breed livestock for disease resistance
• Produce animal vaccines in feed grains
• Implement advanced monitoring and detection systems
for livestock
• Develop global wildlife health surveillance network
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
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One World–One Health
©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates