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1 bio-era™ One World–One Health: An Economic Perspective Beyond Zoonoses: The Threat of Emerging Diseases to Human Security and Conservation, and the Implications for Public Policy James Newcomb Bio Economic Research Associates (bio era) November 15, 2004 Bangkok, Thailand ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 2 bio-era™ Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Diseases $50bn SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada $30-50bn Estimated Cost $40bn $30bn Foot & Mouth UK $25–30bn $20bn BSE UK, $10-13bn $10bn Foot & Mouth Taiwan, $5-8bn Classical Swine Fever, Netherlands $2.3bn BSE Japan $1.5bn HPAI, Italy $400m Nipah, Malaysia $350-400m 1994 1995 1996 1997 Figures are estimates and are presented as relative size. 1998 1999 Avian Flu Asia, $5–10bn 2000 BSE Canada $1.5bn Avian Flu, NL $500m 2001 2002 BSE U.S., $3.5bn 2003 2004 2005 2006 ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 3 bio-era™ Livestock Disease Economics ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 4 bio-era™ Livestock Disease Risks: Widening Concerns • Recent animal disease outbreaks have affected one-third of global meat exports (UN/FAO) • Economic impacts of major livestock disease outbreaks in the past 10 years exceed $80 billion • Concerns about human health risks of emerging infectious diseases are increasing (SARS, avian flu, Nipah virus) • Rapid growth of Asia’s livestock industries poses new challenges • Global trade and travel increase the interconnectedness of livestock producers worldwide • Pathogen exchanges with wildlife populations could be significant • Bioterrorism aimed at agricultural targets is possible ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 5 bio-era™ One World–One Health: An Economic Perspective 1. Inevitable Collisions: Projected Increases in Livestock Populations Will Create New Ecosystem Stresses 2. Network Dynamics: Highly Interconnected Systems Are Vulnerable to Epidemics 3. Policy Responses Must Take the Long View ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 6 bio-era™ UN Population Projections (Bn) 12 10 8 High variant Medium variant 6 Low variant Actual 4 2 50 20 45 20 40 20 35 20 30 20 25 20 20 20 15 20 10 20 05 20 00 20 95 19 90 19 85 19 80 19 75 19 70 19 65 19 60 19 55 19 19 50 0 Source: United Nations Secretariat, “World Population Prospects: 2002 Revision” ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 7 bio-era™ Meat Consumption and Income Trends Log of per capita Consumption of Meat (19711995 avg.) 5 4 Philippines China Trend 3 2 1 4 5 India 6 7 8 9 10 Log of per capita GNP (1971-95 avg.) 11 ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 8 bio-era™ World Meat Consumption: 1983-2020 200 Million Metric Tons 180 160 140 Developing world 120 Developed world 100 80 60 20 20 93 19 19 83 40 Source: IFPRI, “Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution” FAO Annual Data. Total meat consumption for 1983 and 1993 are three-year moving averages. 2020 projections come from IFPRI’s global model, IMPACT ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 9 bio-era™ Projected Species Production 160 140 Million Metric Tons 120 100 80 60 40 Pork Poultry Beef and Veal Misc. 2024 2021 2018 2015 2012 2009 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 1964 1961 20 Mutton and Lamb Source: Center for Global Food Issues ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 10 bio-era™ Brazil Chicken Meat Production and Exports: 1964-2004 9 Million Metric Tons *RTC 8 7 6 5 Production Exports 4 3 2 1 04 02 20 00 20 98 20 96 19 94 19 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 19 82 80 19 78 19 76 19 74 19 72 19 19 70 19 68 19 66 19 19 64 0 Source: FAOSTAT ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 11 bio-era™ China Chicken Meat Production and Imports: 1987-2004 12 Million Metric Tons *RTC 10 8 Imports 6 Production 4 2 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 87 19 89 19 91 0 Source: FAOSTAT ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 12 bio-era™ Thailand Chicken Meat Production and Exports: 1964-2004 1.5 Million Metric Tons *RTC 1.3 1.0 Production 0.8 Exports 0.5 0.3 03 20 01 20 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 19 77 19 19 75 0.0 Source: FAOSTAT ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 13 bio-era™ The Global Meat Trade is Highly Concentrated Source: Center for Global Food Issues ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 14 bio-era™ Percent of Global Meat Production Exported 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 1963 1961 0% Source: Center for Global Food Issues ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 15 bio-era™ Network Theory Offers Important New Tools for Analyzing and Managing Disease Risks • Network models (scale-free, small world, urban, etc.) give fundamental new insights into epidemiology • Scale-free networks are especially vulnerable, but can be made more robust by focusing control measures at hubs • Network theory has significant practical applications in understanding and managing livestock diseases through application of “contact tracking” to identify hubs ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 16 bio-era™ Poisson distribution Exponential Network Power-law distribution Scale-free Network ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 17 bio-era™ ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 18 bio-era™ Emerging Infectious Diseases: What Are the Linkages Among Wildlife, Domestic Animals and Humans? • Fundamental forces are driving new infection disease threats for livestock • Avian influenza poses especially large potential risks • Emerging diseases are causing significant economic disruptions Source: Daszak, Cunningham, and Hyatt, Science, January 2000 ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 19 bio-era™ ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 20 bio-era™ ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 21 bio-era™ ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 22 bio-era™ Control and Mitigation Methods Are Evolving Quickly • Mass culling has been effective, but at very high cost • Trade embargoes are crude tools to control disease • New monitoring and detection systems are being put in place • Vaccination is now being used, but evolutionary implications are unknown • Rapid testing technologies have been developed • Changes in livestock practices are being explored ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 23 bio-era™ Institutional Responses to Avian Flu: Recommendations of OIE/CDC/WHO • Surveillance and separation systems to limit contact between wild birds and poultry • Strategies to ensure the purity of drinking water supplies for poultry • Tight control measures over livestock movement in affected areas • Bird-proofing of poultry sheds to prevent contact between wild birds, especially migrating waterfowl, and poultry • Protection for workers during culling operations including protective clothing and vaccinations • Financial support for losses incurred by farmers culling their flocks • Endorsement of vaccination strategies as complement to culling ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 24 bio-era™ Sustainable Long-Term Solutions May Require Innovative Science and Policy • Breed livestock for disease resistance • Produce animal vaccines in feed grains • Implement advanced monitoring and detection systems for livestock • Develop global wildlife health surveillance network ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates 25 bio-era™ One World–One Health ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates