Download 2016 EEA report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in

2016 EEA report on climate change,
impacts and vulnerability in Europe
Hans-Martin Füssel
Project manager - Climate change impacts and adaptation
2015 EIONET Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
15–16 June 2015, Copenhagen
Previous EEA reports on climate change and its
impacts in Europe
2004
2008
Changes over time: more indicators, growing emphasis
on societal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
(separate adaptation reports since 2013)
2012
Content and structure of the 2012 CCIV report
Executive Summary
Technical Summary
1. Introduction
2. Changes in the climate system
• Key climate variables (5)
• Cryosphere (6)
3. Climate impacts on environmental
systems
• Oceans and marine environment (5)
• Coastal zones (2)
• Freshwater quantity and quality (5)
• Terrestrial ecosystems (5)
• Soil (3)
(x): Number of indicators
4. Climate impacts on socio-economic
systems and health
• Agriculture (4)
• Forests and forestry (2)
• Fisheries and aquaculture
• Human health (4)
• Energy (1)
• Transport
• Tourism
5. Vulnerability to climate change
• River flooding, water scarcity
and droughts
• Integrated assessment of
vulnerability
• Cities and urban areas
• Damage costs (1)
6. Indicator and data needs
EEA indicators on climate change and impacts
(majority updated in 2014)
Category
Indicators
Category
Indicators
Key climate variables





Global and European temperature
Temperature extremes
Mean precipitation
Precipitation extremes
Storms
Soil



Cryosphere





Snow cover
Arctic and Baltic sea ice
Greenland ice sheet
Glaciers
Permafrost
Agriculture
•
•
•
•
Growing season for agricultural crops
Agrophenology
Water-limited crop productivity
Irrigation water requirement
Oceans, marine
environment, coastal
areas






Ocean acidification
Ocean heat content
Sea surface temperature
Phenology of marine species
Distribution of marine species
Global and European sea level rise
Forests and forestry
•
•
Forest growth
Forest fires
Freshwater quantity and
quality





River flow
River floods
River flow drought
Water temperature
Lake and river ice cover
Human health
•
•
•
•
Floods and health
Extreme temperatures and health
Air pollution by ozone and health
Vector-borne diseases
Terrestrial biodiversity
and ecosystems




Plant and fungi phenology
Animal phenology
Distribution of plant species
Distribution and abundance of animal
species
Species interactions
Energy
•
Heating degree days
•
Damages from weather and climate
events

Vulnerability/risks
EEA web site:
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/#c5=climate&c7=all&c0=10&b_start=0
Soil organic carbon
Soil erosion
Soil moisture
Policy purposes of EEA climate indicators
1. Tracing global climate change
(raising awareness and informing climate change mitigation):
e.g. global mean temperature, ocean heat content
2. Tracing regional climate hazards
(informing climate risk management):
e.g. regional sea level, extreme precipitation
3. Assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems and society:
e.g. species distribution, agricultural phenology
4. Assessing the effectiveness of risk management:
e.g. floods and health, losses from extreme events
Quality criteria for EEA indicators
1. Thematic and policy relevance:
Sensitive to climate change, relevant for policy development
(but note different policy purposes) and easily understandable
2. Full geographic coverage:
Ideally Europe (EEA-33 or EEA-39) or other relevant area(s)
3. Appropriate geographical aggregation (where relevant):
Countries, regional seas, etc.
4. Long time series:
Depending on the topic (for climate change at least 30 years);
possibly including projections (in particular for climate change)
5. Reliable data supply:
Priority data flows or other institutional arrangement/guarantee
6. Clear methodology:
Methodology is clearly described and repeatable
Scientific and policy developments since 2012
• February 2013: Background Report to the Impact Assessment of the
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
EU Adaptation Strategy (adopted in April 2013)
November 2013: NMI/EASAC Report on extreme weather events in Europe
March 2014: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Working Group II contribution)
April 2014: Report “Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II project”
March 2015: Country reports to Commission (Monitoring Mechanism)
Continuous: Implementation of (Sub)National Adaptation Strategies and
Action Plans (often including vulnerability/risk assessments)
2015: Report on PESETA-GAP project
2017: Potential Commission Impact Assessment (in connection with the
potential revision of the EU Adaptation Strategy in 2017)
From 2016/17 on?: Web portal and regular reports by the Copernicus
Climate Change Service Delegated Entity (ECMWF)
EU funded research projects: CLIPC, IMPACT2C, IMPRESSIONS, …
Objectives of the 2016 EEA CCIV report
•
Present information on past and projected climate change and
impacts on ecosystems and society (primarily through indicators)
•
Identify systems, sectors and regions most at risk of climate
change (in the context of other stressors)
•
Highlight the need for adaptation actions
•
Demonstrate how enhanced monitoring, information sharing and
research can improve the knowledge base
•
Identify changes in knowledge compared to previous report
2016 EEA indicator report on climate change,
impacts and vulnerability (under development)
• Coordination by EEA
• Authors and contributors:
•
•
•
•
•
EEA and European Topic Centres (CCA, BD, ICM)
Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
World Health Organisation
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Other organisations
• Data sources:
•
•
•
International databases and reports
(European) research projects and data centres
Academic publications
• External Advisory Group:
Commission (incl. JRC), EEA Scientific Committee, ECMWF,
WHO, ECDC, regional conventions, member countries, etc.
• Reviews:
•
•
•
Advisory Group
Eionet
Further experts
2012 EEA report to be
updated and improved.
Stakeholder survey on 2016 EEA CCIV report
Goals
• Gain informal feedback on planned 2016 report
• Raise awareness of planned 2016 EEA CCIV report
Format
• Sent to Commission experts, Eionet, former Advisory Group,
international organisations, European networks
• Conducted in September 2014
• 33 responses, including from 16 national governments
Topics
• Use and usefulness of the 2012 EEA CCIV report
• Potential changes in the 2016 report
Key results
•
•
•
•
High satisfaction with 2012 EEA CCIV report
Majority of respondents prefers comprehensive 2016 report
Shift focus (somewhat) from climate change to impacts
Further suggestions incorporated into project plan
Changes from 2012 to 2016 EEA CCIV report
1. Refocus and moderately reduce the underlying indicator set
(with a focus on policy relevance)
2. Include information on policy context for adaptation
(mainstreaming in EU policies, referring to 2014 EEA report)
3. Improved presentation of information related to
extreme climate and weather events (e.g. droughts)
 EEA expert workshop was held 18–19 March 2015
4. Further information on society‘s vulnerability beyond indicators
(e.g. European climate change vulnerability/risk assessments;
cross-border impacts; regional case studies)
New sections in the 2016 EEA CCIV report
o
o
o
o
1.4: Adaptation policies in Europe
3.1: Ecosystems and their services under climate change
4.1: Damages from extreme weather events
5: Cross-sectoral climate change vulnerability assessments
• Socio-economic scenarios for Europe
• Vulnerability across Europe
• Vulnerability to cross-border impacts
• Vulnerability in European macro-regions
• Vulnerability of urban regions
o 6.2: Copernicus climate change service
Main changes to indicator set
New (+)
Discontinued (–)
Merged (>)
Hail
Permafrost soils
Meteorological and
hydrological droughts
Marine oxygen content
Marine phenology
Plant and animal
phenology
Forest composition and Lake and river ice
distribution
cover
Water and food-borne
diseases
Air pollution by
ozone
Extreme weather
events with impacts
Soil organic carbon
Soil erosion
Forest growth
Species interactions
Plant and animal
distribution
Continued gaps in the 2016 EEA CCIV report
•Some climate-sensitive issues were (are) not covered due to:
•Insufficient data:
o industry and manufacturing,
o insurance,
o infrastructure (except transport),
o livestock production,
o cultural heritage;
•Hard-to-quantify:
aesthetic impacts,
personal well-being;
•Speculative attribution:
• migration
Time schedule and next steps
2015
Mar
Apr
Phase 1 –
Project preparation
Phase 2 – Prepare
first draft report
Aug
Sept
Oct
Phase 3 – Prepare
second draft report
Dec
2016
Jan/
Feb
Mar
Apr
May/
Jun
Sep
Phase 4 – Prepare
final draft report
Phase 5 –
Production and
publication
Milestone
- Expert workshop on extreme weather events (18-19 March)
- First meeting of Advisory Group (26 March)
- EEA visit to JRC-IES (14/15 April)
- Second lead authors meeting (28 April)
First draft (31 July):
- Draft assessments and figures for all indicators
- Annotated outlines of other chapters
- Review of first draft by Advisory Group
- Second meeting of Advisory Group (13 October)
- Third contributors meeting (week of 26 Oct)
Second draft report:
- Updated draft assessments and figures for all indicators
- Full text for all chapters
-
Extended Eionet Review
(NFPs, NRCs, Advisory Group, other experts)
EEA contributors meeting
Final draft report sent for language editing
All Graphs and maps completed
Final report sent for lay-out
Release of printed publication
Indicators published
Topics for discussion
1. Scope and structure of the report
2. Indicator selection
3. Relevant information beyond indicators
Thank you
See for more information:
http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate
http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/
http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer