Download The Implications of the Stock Market Crash and the Philippine

¢olume
VI No.
Januar/-February
1'988
ISSN
15-9097
The Implications of the Stock Market
Crash and the Philippine Economy
I
t is important to take a critical
look at the po'tential consequences
of the Octobe_ 19 stock market
crash on Philippine
ance.
EDITOR_3 NOTE: The Wall Street Crash on October 19, 1987, also called the "Black
Monday" in the financial world, drew varied global reactions. This is not surprising
since stockmarkets, ingeneral, reflecttheover-allprospectofan
economy_ By therise
economic perform-
and ebb in stock market prices and activities, employment, consumer spending and the
general economic well-being of a country could be predicted.
Some market observers in New York believe that the 508-point decline in the
The big crash was led by the New
York Stock exchange, as had occurred
in the Great Crash of 1929. Last Octobet 19, 1987, a day that has come to be
called "Meltdown Monday "_ the Dow
Jones industrial average fell 508 points,
and triggered off similar crashes in stock
prices in all the major stock exchanges
in the world•
Dow-Jones inclustna_rage
was only a temporary retreat that could precede further
gains in an unceasing five-year-old "bull market•" Other financial analysts argue that
the crash was an ineviiable solution to the overpriced stocks bought and sold at the
stock market. In Europe, the dramatic crash led European investors to doubt the
stock markets, while investors in .Asian countries believe that the crash would reduce
the inflow of foreign investments, thus leading to a slowdown of their economic
growth.
In reviewing its general impact to the Philippine economy, Dr. Manuel Montes,
our guest writer for this issue, notes that it is hardly surprising that local stock markets
echo the crisis in Wall Street, though probably in a lesserdegree. Ira slowdown in economic growth in the United States and other major countries occur, there will be a
dampening effect on revenues from Philippine exports to these countries. Another important factor is the fact that the value of the Philippine peso is affected by changes
in the value of the U_S. dollar. Thus, the short-and long-run repercussions of the crash
on the Philippine economy merit a careful study.
Dr. Montes is an Associate Professor of Money and Banking at the University
of the Philippines' School of Economics. An Outstandii_g Young Scientist for 1987
awardee, he specializes it, rnacroeconomies, monetary theory and policy, fiscal policy
and Third World debt problems. He is also a Central Bank of the Philippines'Diamond
Jubilee associate_ In this issue, Dr. Montes analyzes the possible causes of the Wall
Street crash and presents some implications on the Philippine economy,
Meltdown Monday wiped out $1
--"'_on worth of assets which had been
-u-.,t up over five years of continually
rising stock prices (the "bull market"),
This was the longest "bull market" of
the 20th century. The Dow Jones index,
which stood at 1-895.95 at the start of
1987, peaked at 2722.42 on August 25,
and began exhibiting a slight downward
trend before precipitously falling on the
ii
i
CONTENTS:
PAGE
THE IMPLICATIONS
OF THE STOCK MARKET
CRASH AND THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY
.......................................
1
UPDATE:
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DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH
•NEWS
JANUARY-FEBRUARY1988
day of the Crash. The end of 1987 saw
the Dow see-sawing around the value of
1900.
An important exception to note is
that wealth is created and destroyed in
the operations of the stock market itself, and since future prospects are dif-
U.S. has been quite dynamic in its detense spendingl--/but at the expense of
an unsustainable budget deficit.
The Dow Jones index, because it is
based on the prices of blue chip stocks,
actually underestimates the extent of the
trash. The fall in the prices, overall,
induced a "flight to quality" which reduced the fall in the prices of blue chip
stocks,
ficult to measure, self-propelling expectations and speculation have often been
behind overall advances in stock prices,
In such a situation, the entry of new
investors into the market, including small
investors and foreign investors, is often
unmatched by increases in the supply of
stocks, representing either new enter-
A possible reason behind the stock
market crash is that the prices of stocks
had been bid up to levels which were
inconsistent with the actual earnings
prospects of the companies whose stocks
are bought and sold in these markets.
The reason why these prices were bid up
at unsustainable levels and have had
The events of October must be interpreted as a major change in the world
economic scene, the end of a phase in
prises or expansion in existing enterprises,
This tends to bid up prices of the available existing stocks, thus fuetling further
to fall drastically has been the fact that
self-fulfilling speculative activity had
sustained the rising market.
the world economy whict/1 began after
the end of the deep recessions of 1978
and 1980. In order to understand the
possible implications of this event on
the Philippine economy, it is necessary
to discuss the stock market and the
possible causes of the stock market crash,
entry and speculation.
The Characteristics of the Stock Market.
The stock markets are a venue for the
transformation of savings into capital for
industrial enterprises in capitalist econok
mies. The other important venues are the
financial system and the fiscal operations
of the government,
The stock market has tire important
characteristic that permits direct risktaking in capitalist enterprises, it also
permits risk-takers to change the enterprises in which they undertake risk,
subject only to delays imposed by the
Thus, stock prices represent not only the
actual, but also the potential condition
of the companies whose stocks are traded
in the markets. And 'these conditions are
need to physically complete transactions.
prices have the capability of immediately
discounting or embodying events that
represented on a current basis; stock
On an overall basis, the average prices
of stocks in stock markets can reflect,
with important exceptions, the overall
prospects of the oeonomy when the
stocks of the most important enterprises
in that economy are traded in the market.
An overall, rise in stock prices can be interpreted, with uncertain lag, as a judgement of improving prospects for the
economy; and vice.versa.
"Earlier Monday, panic selling gripped
stock exchanges in Tokyo, Hongkong,
Lonldon,
Frankfurt, Amsterdam
and
other financial centers, with records set
for one4ay losses ....
The pace-setting
Manila Stock Exchange reported its
composite index fell 105.49 points to
To be more
Jones average
all the gains in
of 1987 was
market-2--/
789.54. " (The l_inancial Post and Philip
pine Daily Inquirer, respectfvely, 21
October 1987, page 1)
=:
In fact, the recent record will probably reflect the fact that economic
activities in the advanced countries have
been concentrated irt mergers and acquisitions, which, while involving enormous
amounts of resources, have created little
In a theoretical sense, such an eventuality would be a common, but unpredictable feature of the stock market.
in the real world, it is recognized that
many markets are imperfect; more than
that, many markets,, especially the futures
markets, actually do not exist, in such a
situation, under a general equilibrium
view, existing
markets,
particularly
markets as orderly and as organized as
stock markets, will have to reflect, in a
capital. The
hypersensitive
government
sector in the
precise, based on the Dow
figures reported above,,,
prices since the beginn]
deemed "unreal" by the
manner,
the non-clearil_--
=,oo
2too
z,oo
25oo
_ir°°
2_oo
z4oo
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20001
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FIGURE
FeblS
I. ROLLER
M.r20
COASTER
• FOR
Aix'6
Jul
17'
RIDE OFAVIERAGE
30 INDUSTRIALS
SOU
Augi7
STOCK
RCE:
Oc;t19
0_121
PRICES
IN U.S.
OOW
JONES.
Deoal
Associated
Press
•
DEVELOPMENT
conditions of the imperfect
non-existent markets.
RESEARCH
and
the
NEWS
JANUARY-FEBRUARY1988
The tax cuts policy of the Reagan
Administration accompanied by increases
in defense spending, and the less-thanadequate social spending cuts inaugurated
an economic regime of consistent and
continuously
increasing
government
budget deficits. In 1987, the budget delicit is estimated to be in the order of
$160.0 billion, perhaps reaching $175.0
billion in 1988. On the other hand, the
national debt doubled to $2.0 trillion,
change rates. Like the stock markets,,
the factor of confidence and hope
buoyed up the expectation that offsetting positive effects from the Reagan
economic program would appear in the
future to sustain the current exchange
rates. The Reagan supply-side program
was directed towards an increase in supply and output in response to the tax
cuts, thus solving the budget deficit
problem naturally
with the induced
increases in tax revenues.
that brought stock prices down. It will
be impossible to get into the minds of
In a country where the savings rate
has fallen to below 3:percent of income,
By September
1985, the Reagan
administration was forced to come to
stock market players, many of whom
even point to the apparent "irrationality"
these bu.dget deficits have to be vented
as trade deficits in .an almost one-to-one
of the stock market,
manner. The trade deficit increased from
$132.0 billion in 1985 to $156.0 billion
grips with the trade deficit problem, in
an agreement called the "Plaza Accord",
hammered out with Japan, West Germany, Britain and France, the United
States began "talking" the dollar down.
For this reason , many stock market
professionals after the crash have resurrected ideas that private individuals,
unless they would personally specialize
in the operations of the market, should
not "play" in stocks.
The question remains as to what
factors precipitated the wave of selling
in 1986,
_Iowever, the immediate event that
,cipitated the crash provides a clue to
the cause of the crafla. A statement by
U.S. Treasury Secretary James Baker,
castigating West Germany for its lack of
cooperativeness
in joint
efforts
to
stabilize the value of the dollar, has been
and
will likely hit
$175.0
billion in 1987.
Like the stock markets, markets for
foreign exchange are examples where the
costs of imperfectly clearing markets
elsewhere must be borne by the markets
that happen to be operating,
....
There were no real foreign exchange
operations, only pronouncements
that
the value of the dollar should be lowered.
The inconsistency of the price level
before the crash, and the world economic
situation affected, and continues to
affect, the unsustainability
of international economic relationships among
"The results of a violctttly depressed
stock market may be felt over the next
several months in the form of lower
consumer spending; higher unemploymerit, reductions in business plans .and
even a teeesrlott . ._" (Manila Times, 21
October, 1987)
....
'
_ : 'ii:'
.......
tic recession; as would have been the
case if it had been subjected to an IMF
adjustment progr_tm. Moreover, it would
not have been in the interest of Japan,
particularly, which was already suffering
from losses due to the yen appreciation,
for the U.S. to have followed such a
course.
advanced countries. These relationDs are, in turn, heavily conditioned by
budget and trade deficits of the
United States and the particular constraints faced by the economic powers,
In the case of the U.S. dollar, its world
market was quite willing to absorb the
disequilibria embodied in the U.S. trade
deficit without substantial changes in ex-
identified as the
the crash,
immediate
trigger to
Despite the dollar slid in 1986, the
trade deficit did not decline. The United
States was unwilling to induce a domes-
Alternatively,
Japan and Germany
agreed on another course - to stimulate
their economies. The U.S, threatened that
it would unilaterally devalue the dollar
should these countries fail to do so.
Beyond all these is a need to look into
the economic reasons behind the stock
market crash.
In the past two and a half years, the
valueEconomie
of the ReasonsBehind
U.S. dollar hastheCrash
fallen by
more than 50 percent against the West
German mark and the Japanese yen. This
fall has been precipitated by a combination of factors such as the U.S. trade
_
DEC. 1979
_ I=¥
deficit and its policy actions, including
that of the advanced capitalist economies.
I
I
in
DEC. 198:3
259.52
_; I = D M 1.72
FIGURE
SOURCE:
I
_
Hil
2. THE
_
DEC. 1987
_1 = _ 208.77
41=¥
$1 = DM 2.74
_; I = DM 1.58
RISE AND FALL OFTHE
122,44
U.S. DOLLAR
N E D.,_
''
.....................
3
DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS
In February
JANUARY-FEBRUARY
1988
1987, the parties ham-
"Louvre Agreement" which then attemp,
ted to prevent the further fall of the dollar (which at that time stood at 150 yen).
However, the dollar continued to slide
meted out a new agreement, calledthe
and the Baker statement, delivered immediately before the crash, was interpreted as a breakdown of fhe difficult
efforts at coordination, (and a very distinct possibility of the U.S. threat of
unilateral devaluation) and no prospects
of orderly adjustment. Foreign investors
in New York withdrew their investment
in the face of possible foreign exchange
losses which then sparked the crash.
That the other markets around the
world crashed in response indicates that
the most likely economic adjustments
for the rest of the 1980s will induce
slower growth. The principal source of
the current difficulties is the U_S.government b'udget deficit. Thus, any success
in resolving this problem will also reduce
the U.S. deficit. This will, however, reduce the exports of Japan, West Germany, Talwan, South Korea, and so on
to the United States, which in turn, will
_
_&
sToc
I'"-]_'--/_l__.J(
_k_
_FIGURE
3_STOCKMARKET
DEALERSIN AMSTERDAM
DUBBED
THEPLUNGE
AS" MONDAY
MASSACRE"
•policy would strike at the heart of the
post-War Japanese social fibre. A reduction in the political power in Japan
will have to occur someday. The Japanese_3/hopes that this will occur in a deliberate and orderly manner.
reduce their growth,
to such policies. Budget deficits are
politically unacceptable in West Germany. The Japanese deficit and its
national debt is already huge; it is only
because of Japan's high savings rate that
these deficits have been domestically
financed so far. However, a very high
and positive savings rate cannot be turned
around overnight,
"Underlying the market's weakness were
continued fears over inflation, rising
interest rates and a weakening dollar..."
The U.S. has been attempting to convince Japan, South Korea and other such
countries to remove their protectionist
barriers. These countries counter that
sion but
achieve.
taxes on
property,
these protectionist barriers have always
existed and were never the cause of the
U.S. trade deficit until U.S. macroeconomic policies changed .drastically
with the Reagan administration.
The
solution should therefore be in altering
the macroeconomic policy of the United
States.
duced in the Reagan administration, 2t
possibly, reducing the deficit by cuts
social security programs. This entails
cutting back benefits
to reasonable
levels. However, the initial attempt to
cut government
spending by $30.0
billion in 1988, in response to the crash,
solves less than one-fifth of the $175.0
billion problem.
(Philippine Daily Inquirer, 21 October
1987, p. 8.)
Should
deficit
the U.S. fail to resolve the
problem,
the only alternative is
further precipitous drops in the value =of
the U.S. dollar. As mentioned earlier, this
will dislocate the economies of the socalled outward.oriented economies men-
In any case, Japan has a long-term
and deliberate program (i.e. the "Maeka-
Hypothetically,
a macroeconomic
policy vector that the U.S, might implement could reduce the extent of receswould
This
upper
which
be politically difficult to
would
involve raising
income brackets and on
had been drastically re-
It is hard to give a definitive answer
tioned. Their export enterprises will be
unable to raise prices to offset the
changes in the exchange rate.
wa plan") of removing protectionist
barriers. Even if the program were accelerated, it would be unlikely that
U.S. exports to Japan would drastically
increase since U.S. manufacturers are
to the question, except to say that the
elements that sparked off the 1930s
depression do not appear to be present
at this time. For a contrary view, which
relies on the approach that history
The U.S. has been attempting to
avoid the painful medicine by attempting to force other countries to carry out
part of the adjustment. Japan and West
Germany have made efforts to induce
domestic demand but have faced limits
Unprepared to export to Japan. U.S.
agricultural exports into Japan might
increase dramatically and immediately
with the removal of agricultural proteetion, but for the Japanese, such a
operates in cycles, it would be valuable
to read the work of Ravi Batra (1986).
4
II
III
The
depression
of the
1930s
was
based on a financial crash that followed
DEVE LOPMENT
RESEARCH
NEWS
JANUARY-FEBRUARY1988
the stock market crash. 4/At the present
time, there continues to be questions
raised about the extent of overvaluation
of stocks in the Japanese stock market,
and whether further worldwide adjust.
ments are forthcoming. Some analysts
would project a future Dow Jones value
sion can occur. Kindleberger (1978) has
a discussion on the nature' of manias and
panics,
of about 1300, after adjustments in the
Japanese stock exchange market,
Jevons,
Menger, and Marshall.) the
marginal and atomistie approach to explain the workings of an economy. Keynesian economics, based on the work of
Keynes in 1936 was unknown, and at
that time, it was believed that excess
supplies in markets, particularly in labor
markets, would be resolved quickly
enough with the fall in prices,
varying effects on the performance of
the Philippine economy. For instance,
the expectation that the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) countries will have an average
reduction of one percentage point in GDP
growth in 1988, will in turn, reduce the
volume of Philippine exports, but not
drastically in terms of levels.
Keynesian economics, whose serious
implementation
was made possible by
the onset of World War II, appeared to
A positive effect of the stock market
crash has been the fall, or at least the
The governments of the world are
frequently larger relative to their econornies, and a significant portion of these
economies' investib.le funds arewithin
present a solution to that type of depression. It is entirely possible that Keyne.
sian economics will be inappropriate to
non-occurrence of the expected rise, in
world interest rates. This reduces the
interest burden on the rescheduled debt.
the control
time.
When the t930s depression struck,
the field of economics hadjust completely worked out (through the work of
The financial crash preceding the
1930s depression destroyed capital values
which forms the basis for private investment. There was also a liquidity crisis,
as banks which had overextended their
lending in the asset markets, collapsed,
The liquidity crisis caused the disappearance of financing for "all types of
enterprises,
A
of government.
,
enough
'
' '
"tt_'thin these overall eo,nstrgints, one
Would" stlll expe_t:_O_rtunities
in
speeilic areas to exist; _
is.important
is that the Philippir_e_ ;_nt
itself to
take advan_t_
of i_.iOPl_rtunities
,
In .the wake 0[. th_ii)gg_,_ek
market
crash."
_ . _
.
in preventing
a depression.S-/
If the propositions arising from equilibrium theory and rational expectations
have any power, it is also possible that
governments will be powerless to inter-
The equilibrium theory and rational.
expectations school, which rely heavily
",
....'i_
- ,,, i_: _ ,
,....
,._1_._
: ' ' "' '_
"i" '.' I' .:""'
'
': '..i._
"
, _'
'"
•
,,,
on atomistic or practically atomistic
behavior, would in fact lay the blame on
government intervention, should a deep
What is important is that economists
pay serious attention to (and. exert effort
to understand) the theoretical bases of
depression come about.,
The onset of a depression of the 1930s
type will be characterized by a series of
financial failures, it appears at this time
that the large financial institutions do
their models of the real economy,
Unfortunately,
even the issue of
what caused the economic depression of
the 1930s is unresolved in the economics
not have inordinate exposures in equity
markets as they did in the 1930s, where
the practice of lending on the margin was
widespread, although the world fmancial
system does have a large exposure to
poor developing countries,
profession. The principal bone ofcontention is whether the crash originated
from monetary factors, or whether there
were real (non-monetary) causes behind
it.7_/
As we have attempted
to convey
earlier, the stock market crash has initiated a period of uncertainty in the ad-
It does not appear unlikely that a
thoroughly, original path toward depres,
ii i i
ii
i
i i
i
,
stock
market
crash will have
The slowing down of world trade can
signal an accompanying overall decline
in foreign investment inflows, which have
_,
......
_h_e when the crisis alises. 6/
The
any impending depression, at the present
The avoid-
ance of a depression will depend on the
existence of governments that are astute
to do their part
vanced capitalist economies. The removal
of this uncertainty requires the overcoming not only of economic difficulties,
but also of political obstacles.
always accompanied growth in foreign
trade. It will encourage private international lenders to continue reducing their'
exposure to countries such as the Philippines. This will make trade prospects and
financing for projects more difficrdt than
it already is.
Within these overall constraints, one
would still expect opportunities in specific areas to exist. Philippine domestic
incomes still have a long way to go to
recover at levels already achieved before
the balance-of-payments crisis of 1983.8-J
As mentioned earlier, it is expected
that the Japanese domestic market will
be opening up steadily and deliberately.
Labor-intensive manufacturing operations
have begun to move out of Japan, and
will be expected to move out of Korea
and Taiwan in the future. The continuation of these trends will depend on the
strength of the world economy.
What is important is that the Philippines orient itself to take advantage
of the opportunities
that lie ahead,
in the wake of the 1987 stock market
crash.
......
llIlllllllllllll
I
I I
NOTES
II I
for defense employs real resources,
1Taken in any view" the expenditures
2The
unanswered
questlon remains:
"Were the gains previous to this also unreal?"
3This appears to be a worldwide as'piration.
_
5That governments have been ideologically "fanatic" and lacked astuteness
to design a coordinated macroeconomic
policy provides some grounds for doubt.
braith (1955).
6The representative Work of economists
from this school would include Barro
70n the controversy, see the work of
Temin (1976J and Brunner (1981).
environmentalvadables have
varying
electricity. Also, estimates of the peakload
coefficients
of demand
degreeselasticity
of -effects
on the demand
for
provide a measure of the relative contribution of residential, commercial and
industrial consumers in the evolution
of the system peakload.
UPDATE
4See Jbr example, the account of Gal-
(1984J, and Lucas and Sargent(1981).
I
_
A
GENERAL
ASSESSMENT
FOREIGN
TRADE BARRIERS
PHILIPPINE
EXPORTS
Working Paper Series No. 88-01
'.......
_ _ _ ,_ __
_
OF
TO
NEWPt.BI.ICATIONS
ERLINDA M. MEDALLA
i_,,
Research Fellow, Philippine
for Development Studies
Institute
I DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY
IN
THE
PHILIPPINES:
1MPLICATIONS
FOR
ALTERNATIVE
ELECTRICITY
PRICING
POLICIES
The study, co-sponsored by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies
(PIDS) and the Asian Development Bank
(ADB), was conducted jointly by Erlinda
Medalla and Gwendolyn Tecson of the
University of the Philippines' School of
Economics.
8One is reminded Of the Latin American
countries' experience where import substitution in the 1930s were successfully
carried out w_ten markets for their'agricultural exports disappeared.
'REFERENCES
t, ,
Barro, Robert J Macroeconomics, New
York: John Wiley and Sons, [1984]
Batra, Ravi The Great Depression of the
1990s. New York: Simon and Shuster,
[1986]
Brunner, Karl The Great Depression
Revisited. New Yock: Martinus Nijhoff, [198l ]
Galbraith,
Jolm Kenneth The Great
Crash, ].929. London: Hamish Hamilton, [1955]
Keynes, John Maynard The General
Theory of Employment,
Interest,
and Money. London: Macmillan Co,
[1936]
Kindleberger, Charles Manias, Panics and
Crashes. New York: Basic Books,
[1978]
Lucas, Robert E. and Thomas J. Sargent
(eds.) Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice. London: George
Allen and Unwin, [ 1981 ]
Temin, Peter Did Monetary Forces Cause
the Great DepressionL New York:
W.W. Norton, [1976]
6
II III
,
,,
12LODUALDO R. FRANCISCO
Research Fellow, Philippine
for Development Studies
Institute
The study estimates the demand elasticities of electricity in the Philippines
focusing on the Manila Electric .Company (MERALCO) frandaise area. Results of this analysis are usedto derive
implications for alternative electricity
pricing policies,
The study describes the features of electricity as a commodity and specifies the
demand model, taking into account developments in the energy economics literature. Demand for electricity by residential, commercial and industrial consumers
is postulated to be a function of the
prices of electricity, substitutes, electricity-consuming equipment, and income
and environmental variables. Moreover,
long-run price and income elasticities
are found to be generally larger in magnitude than short-run elasticities, and
IIIII
IIII
The study analyzes the over-all impact of
non-tariff measures (NTMs) to Philippine
exports, and attempts,to make an inventory of NTMs imposed by the United
States, Japan and European countriesaffecting most, if not all, of Philippn_
exports. The study is undertaken in order
to shed light on the difficulties in tackling
the problem of protectionism.
These
difficulties can be attributed to recent
developments in trade policy and legislation which shows an intensification,
rather than a reversal of past protectionist trends. For instance, tariffs
are no longer the main instrument of
protection.
Instead,
NTMs have increasingly become the most pronounced
barrier to Philippine exports. Moreover, '
since the application of NTMs can be
discretionary, it is quite hard to grasp
the real nature and restrictiveness of
NTMs.
Estimates of the over.all index of NTM
coverage show that 48 percent of Philippine exports to the U:S. are covered by
IIII
NTMs. The most common of these is
health and sanitary regulations, accounthag for 26 percent of total exports to
the U.S.; and 47 percent for Japan. The
most common NTM applied to Pttilippine exports to Japan is phytosanitary
regulations, affecting 18 percent of total
exports. For European countries, 52 percent of exports is subject to quotas
(both global and bilateral). The European
countries also seemed to have the biggest
and the most varied types of NTMs.
,,ECONOMICS
OF UPLAND
RESOURCE DEPLETION:
SHIFTING
CULTIVATION
IN THE
PHILIPPINES
rking Paper Series No. 88-02
duction through slash-and-bum farming,
is likewise investigated. The study explains swidden fainting in the context of
a standard resource economic model on
open access exploitation, the discounting
g]as, and zero valuation of the extemalities involved, as well as constraints which
are specific to upland resource use ...........
......
An in-house staff seminar on "The Effect
of an Exchange Rate Devaluation on a
Small Open Economy with an External
Debt Overhang" was held on February 5,
1988 at the NEDA sa Makati Building.
The seminar, which highlighted the paper
written by Dr. Josef T. Yap, focuses
on the aggregate demand approach in
addressing the effects of an exchange
rate devaluation on a developing country
with an external debt overhang. The
seminar dealt only with the small economy case where the external debt is owed
by the government, or is governmentguaranteed. Dr. Yap showed that a devaluation amidst an external debt will
SEMINARS
heavy decline in real output and
alead
risetoin aprices.
The paper presents the varying degree of
completeness of markets for the effects
of upland resource use. Morevo_r, the
resulting time paths of resource stocks,
•scarcity rent, agricultural production
and prices aie discussed under varying
decision rules followed by different
resource-users. This is followed by insights on shifting cultivation in various
parts of the country,
=m _
MARIAN S. DE LOS ANGELES
Research
Fellow,Studies
Philippine
for
Development
Institute
The paper provides a systematic investigation of agricultural systems practiced
in the uplands by starting with a foruaal
treatment
of the shifting cultivation
. problem. The optimum rate of use of
forested land from society's viewpoint,
and from the individual uplander's view-
'..........
IN-HOUSE SEMINAR ON THE EFFECT
OF AN EXCHANGE RATE DEVALUA]'ION ON A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY
WITH AN EXTERNAL DEBT OVERHANG
Florian A. Alburo, Deputy Director-General of
the National
Economic and
The
seminar
was participated
in byDeveDr.
lopment Authority (NEDA), along with
representatives
from the Agricultural
Credit Policy Council (ACPC), De La
Salle University (DLSU), University of
the Philippines' School of Economics
I_
)at, given traditional choices between
_ber production or agricultural pro-
(UPSE) and the Philippine Institute
Development Studies (PIDS).
for
m
[
,',
• FOURTH COMPILATION OF THE CLEARINGHOUSE PROJECT
ON STUDIES RELATED TO ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT
AND POLICY-MAKING IN THE PHILIPPINES
The "DRN Cleannghouse Project aims to gather, condense and disseminate the highlights of completed, ongoing and pipeline res0arch p_ojects on areas related to economic development and policymaking in the Philippines. l_ike _ previous listings, this
fourth batch of studies covers researches conducted by various private and government institutions engaged in research, develop_nt planning and policymaking. In particular, this batch includes all studies submitted to PIDS.DRN from November 1986 to
the pratt,
The flrlt:batch of studies covered 86 projects mad appeared in the September-October 19815issue, o=i "Policies and Research Issues
on P,ner_0¢in the Philippines: The 1980's'. The second listing appeared in the MayJune 1986 issue which focused on "The ESIA,
_
o
_
....
•
.
WID MaCro Component Project , and included 53 studies. The third listing appeared in the November-December 1986 Issue on
_Ssvltlgs iMobillzation in the Philippines: Focus on the Rural Sector" and covered 66 research projects. In this issue, 42 research
_tudies are included,' ,_Tlth18 studies on resource mobilization, and 14 on industry. Scholars doing research on the areas mentioned
will find this compilation helpful. There are seven studies on Agriculture and Food; and three on International Trade and Einance_
nange.
DEVE LOPMENT
RESEARCH
NEWS
JANUARY-FEBRUARY
1988
COMPILATIONOF RESEARCHSTUDIES
AREA OF STUDY
1.
Agriculture
Agricultural
Programs
Credit/Extension
Services
PROJECT COORDINATOR (PC) OR
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR (PI)'
SPONSORING AGENCY
OR INSTITUTIONAL
AFFILIATION
OF
RESEARCHER(S) a
Implications
of Falling
Primary Commodity
Prices
for Agricultural Strategy
in the Philippines
Philippines
Ifzal All (PI)
ADB
Rural Credit Policy:
Do We Need to Target?
Philippines
Gilbert
ACPC
Women and Men in Two
Farming Systems in
the Philippines
Philippines
Jeanne Frances
A Study of Village -Level
Effects of NIA's
Participatory
Communal
Irrigation Program
Philippines
Romana
The Philippine Participatory
Communal Development
Iriigation Program and
Women's Work and
Family Strategies: The
Case of the Aslong
Irrigation Project
Philippines
Jeanne Frances
Rural Savings Mobilization
Action Research P_og_am
Philippines
V. Bruce J. Tolentino
M. Llanto (PI)
I. Illo (PI)
U.S.A,I.D.
P. delos Reyes (PI)
I. Illo (PI)
(PI)
Staff (PI)
Ford Foundation/
NIA/IPC-Ateneo
Ford Foundation/
The Population
Council
ACPC
Study on Government
Assistance to Lowdncome
Groups with Inadequate
Access to Institutional
Credit
Phihppines
NEDA/TBAC
World Bank
A Review of Literature on
the Bataan Export
Processing Zone Experience:
Major Development
Themes and Controversies
Mariveles, Bataan
Ramon C. Sevilla (PC)
DLSU Research
The Relevance of the
Industrial Decentralization
Policies of Japan to the
Philippines
Philippines
Cesar Polvorosa,
Central
Industry
Industrial
81
GEOGRAPHICAL
COVERAGE
and Food
Agriculture and
Food Policies
II.
TITLE OF RESEARCH
PROJECT (S)/STUDY
Policies
II
IIII II I
I
IIIII II
IIIII I 111
Jr. (PI)
im iiii
Center
Bank
limll
..
'
DEVELOPMENT
RESEAR(;H
NEWS
1988
JANUARY-FEBRUARY
ON PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
S]'ATUS b
Completed
(September
ABSTRACT
1987)
Completed
(October 1987)
Completed
111_87)
This paper contests the popular view that credit targetting
It argues that loan/credit
targetting does not work, and that
environment
conducive
for bank lending activities to the
approach to the problem of raising rural output and farmer's
sector. It analyzes the role of agriculture in the mediumfor the possible role of multilateral development
banks
will bring about higher levels of productivity in the rural sector.
the government
should instead make the economic and financial
rural economy.
The paper includes, among others, a systems
income.
The project evaluates the impact of the participatory
communal irrigation program of the National litigation Administration
(NIA). The evaluation
is done by comparing two types of NIA-assisted projects; those which NIA developed through its
participatory
intervention
method, and those which NIA assisted through :its traditional
approach (i.e. non-participatory
projects). Analysis of the effects of NIA's participatory
and non-paxticipatory
intervention
methods focuses on three dimensions of irrigation - the physical irrigation system, the irrigator's association, and.farmer-government
relationship.
Completed
(December
1987)
On-going
(June 1989)
The study examines the household-level
and gender-differentiated
effects of the participatory
communal irrigation project
which the National Irrigation Administration
(NIA) implemented
in the Aslong system beginning March 1979. Four impact
areas are investigated:
participation
of women and men in project activities, food production,
household income, and employment.
The study utilizes four data-collection
strategies; namely, interviews conducted in the community,
census households, collection of life=history cases of subjects drawn from the census and social survey of 90 randomly selected households. Tile selection is based on whether they are dilect/indireet
beneficiaries of the system.
The study aims to examine the microdevel aspects of rural savings mobilization,
the demand (bank) aspects, with special emphasis on the latter.
1987)
The
(1986)
start of operations.
The study organizes
ment and social and political aspects.
Completed
The
1987)
covering both the supply
(household)
and
The study evaluates the impact of government
policies, programs and projects on low-income
families in agriculture; examines existing credit programs in the agricultural sector; and identifies ways and means to more effectively assist the poor
who engages in agriculture.
Completed
(January
setting of the agricultural
issues. Recommendations
The project investigates
the mobilization
of resources by "cooperator"
and "non-cooperator"
households
in the Bicol
Farming Systems Project; the involvement
of male and female members of these households
in different project activities;
and the effects of the project on the male-femaie balance of authority and responsibility
wjtlfin the households.
Completed
(1987)
-'2"mpleted
ptember
The paper examines the macro-economic
term development
plan and some related
in the agricultural sector are given.
study
study
identifies
discusses
Japanese policies
prospects.
the major
findings
of various
studies
the findings
the experience
of the Philippines
for local application.
Some initial
III IIIIII
II
and researches
on the
Bataan Export
along the lines or areas of economic
in .industrial
proposals
decentralization,
are made,
with
with
Processing
development,
Zone since the
regional
develop-
the aim of recalling
relevant
due consideration
given to problems
and
DEVELOPMENT
AREA
STUDY
OF
Industry
RESEARCH
TITLE OF RESEARCH
PROJECT (S)/STUDY
Micro-level
PROJECT COOR
DINATOR (PC), OR
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
(PI)
SPONSORING
AGENCY
OR INSTITUTIONAL
AFFILIATION OF
RESEARCHER(S) a
Thailand, Malaysia,
Brunei and the Philippines
Corazon Cabungeal
et aL
(PD,
United
Changes in the Industrial
Structure and the Role of
Small and Medium Industries
in Asian Countries
Malaysia, Indonesia,
Thailand, Singapore,
Philippines (NCR,
Bulacan, Batangas,
Rizal, Cebu, Zamboanga
City, Laguna, Isabela,
Cagayan, Pampanga)
Corazon
et al.
(PI),
IDE-Japan
Profile: Philippine
Coconut Industry
Philippines
Lexlio Reyes (PI)
Central
Bank
Philippines
Lexlio Reyes (PI)
Central
Bank
Profile: philippine
Electronics Industry
Philippines
Jesus P. Sale (PI)
Central
Bank
Profile: Philippine
Forest Products Industry
Philippines
Fe S. Mirasol (PD
Central Bank
Profile:, Philippin e Shrimp
Industry
Philippines
Fe S. Mirasol (PI)
Central
The Garlic Industry in
the Philippines
;
Philippines
Myrna P. Putong
A Survey. of Small-scale'
Operations in the Rural
Areas of'the Philippines
and their Potential for
Non-Farm Employment
Generation
Philippines:
Regions
3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.9 and 11
Corazon
et al.
Costs and Returns
Coffee
of
Cabungcal
Cabungcal
Selected Provinces
C.T. Perez and
Irish Potato Production,
Selected Provinces, 1983
in the Philippines
J.P. Almeda
Production Costs and
Returns of Turnip
Production in Selected
Provinces
Selected Provinces
Central Luzon
The Role of Technology
Transfer in the Electrical
Philippines
Appliance Industry
Philippines
II
GEOGRAPHICAL
COVERAGE
A Study on the Growth
of Small-scale ForestBased Processing
Enterprises in Four
Developing Countries in
the ASEAN Region
Profile: Philippine
Industry
IIIII
J., ,NUARY-FEBRU,kRY
19S
Studies
Macro-Level
10
NEWS
_
(PI)
(PI),
Nations/FAO
Bank
Central Bank
NEDA/SERDEF
BAS
(PIs)
A.P. Abaya and
J.R. Realiza (PIs)
BAS
Melito Salazar, Jr. (PI),
et al.
IDE-Japan
in the
........
DEVELOPMENT
STATU Sb
RESEARCH
NEWS
.i ,NUARY-FEBRUARY19S8
ABSTRACT
Completed
(April 1987)
The study specificaUy deals with changes in structure and performance
of the folest-based
plocessing enterprise
sector;
major policies and programs affecting the sector; key factors affectifig its growth or decline; main sectoral linkages, and key
issues and problems.
On-going
(February
The study focuses on a number of critical problems
medium firms in the industrialization
process.
1988)
npleted
:tober 1986)
Completed
(April 1987)
and issues at the macro and miclo levels relating to the role of small and
The coconut industry has been found to be a major and reliable source of foreign exchange earnings for the country. Because of this and in order to offset the negative impact of copra importation,
the goveinment has encouraged the development of other coconut products.
One of the findings of the study is that coffee has, in recent years, become an increasingly important
export of the Philippines. However, technical and marketing constraints
presently confront the domestic coffee industry. One of these is access
to credit and training services.
•
Completed
(April 1987)
The study concludes that assembly-line consumer and industrial electronic goods, and components utilizing borrowed technology is now one of the leading nominal foreign exchange earners in the country. With this recent development,
the semiconductor and micro-component
manufacturing
industry is now setting the trend in terms of foreign exchange earnings.
Completed
(April 1987)
The study looks at the developments
in the Philippine forest products industry and concludes that a significant portion of
the industry's
production
has been absorbed
by the export market. Given the current depressed markets and the adverse
effects of this, there is a need to rationalize the industry.
Completed
Tlie government's
(April 1987)
proving the quality
of export
The article features
price trends.
a profile
_mpleted
,mary 1987)
development
program
products
for the shrimp
to enhance
of the Plfilippine
indus'_y
the country's
garlic
industry
is geared
competitive
towards
the expansion
position
in the world market.
in terms of production,
export
of production,
prospects,
and im-
importation
and
i
On-going
(June 1988)
The study focuses
terms of capacity
are also discussed.
on the rural non-agricultural
and potential
for increasing
sector of the economy mad evaluates the small-scale operations covered, in
rural employment
and productivity.
Problems and difficulties
encountered
Completed
(October 1986)
The study provides necessary support to the potato research program of the government.
It presents statistical
production
costs and returns of white potato, and describes input-outputrelationships.
Factors affecting production
and income of kish potato farmers are also described.
Completed
(November
Good yielding turnip
indicates profitability
1986)
Completed
(February 1987)
in Tarlac is attributed
for turnip production,
to favorable climate and suitable sandy loom soil. In addition,
while Pangasinan and Pampanga show poor yields.
tables of
patterns
Nueva Ecija also
The paper describes the role of technology transfer in the electrical appliance industry in the Philippines by looking into the
eomplementation
between
a large company and its subcontractors.
The study also analyzes the local content of finished.
electrical appliances and the support given by the large company to the small l'n'ms to ensure adherence
to standards and
norms.
..............
11
I
DEVELOPMENT
AREA
STUDY
OF
I11. International
Trade
International
Policy
Resouzce
JANUARY-FEBRUARY
1988
GEOGRAPHICAL
COVERAGE
PROJECT COORDINATOR (PC)OR
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
(PI)
SPONSORING AGENCY
OR INSTITUTIONAL
AFFILIATION
OF
RESEARCHER(S) a
and Finance
Trade
Structure and Direction of
Plfilippine External Trade
Philippines
Diwa C. Guinigundo
(Pi)
Exchange Rate Changes
in Key Currencies and'the
Balance-of-Payments
Plfilippines
Antonieta
Exchange Rates and
Export Prices
Plailippines/
International
Benjamin
A. Usigan (PI)
Central
Bank'
Changes in the Rediscount
Policy and Strnetum,
1949-1986
Philippines
Feruando
Y. Silvoza (PI)
Central
Batak
Movements in the Manila
Reference Rates (MRRs)
and Lending_ Rates of
Commercial Banks
Philippines
Vivien R. Buhat (PI)
Central
Bank
Trends and Directions
Bank Lending During
1979-1986
Philippines
Cesar Polvorosa,
Cen_al
Bank
L.H. Laqui (PI)
Central
Bank
Central Bank
Mobilization
Money, Banking
and Finance
Commercial and
Rural Banking
12
NEWS
TITLE OF RESEARCH
PROJECT (S)/STUDY
Balance-of-Payments
IV.
RESEARCH
of
Credit Experiments
and
Schemes for Rural Women
in Southeast Asia and the
Pacific: Issues and Policy
Directions
Southeast
Investment/
Infrastructure
Road Transportation
Industry Study
Philippines
NEDA/DOTC
Money SupplY/
General Monetary
Policy
The Thrust of Monetary
Policy Under the
Economic Recovery
Program
Plfilippines
Armida
Interest
Lifting of Interest Rate
Ceilings: Effects on the
Flow of Funds in the Houschold and Financial
Sectors
Philippines
Ma. Eloma
Financial Markets
and Institutions
Development
of Capital
Markets in the Philippines
Philippines
Catalina
Foreign
Markets
The Relationship
B¢tween Exchange Rates
and Price Movements
Philippines
Emma L. Bonoan
Rates
Exchange
IIIIII
III II
IIIIIJ J l
Asia
Gilbert
Llant0
Jr. (PI)
(PI)
IFAD
Staff (PD
NEDA/DOTC
San Jose (PI)
C. Filart (PI)
T. Robledo
(PI)
(PI)
II1_1_ [ I
Central
Bank
Central
Bank
Centlal
Bank
Central Bank•
DEVELOPM -'NT RESEARCH NEWS
STATUS b
ABSTRACT
Completed
The study looks at tile components
(January
1987)
products.
As pointed
of Philippine
out in the study,
1988
JANUARY-FEBRUARY
external
trade protectionism
tlade" which has become
has adversely
affected
more diversified
the growth
in terms of markets
of Philippine
and
exports.
Completed
(October 1987)
Results "show that the various BOP components
are adversely affected by the recent decline of the U.S. dollar. The impact is
considered significant given the level of Central Bank liabilities and the country's
outstanding debt.
Completed
(June 1987)
The
mpleted
(March 1987)
The study discusses the role of the rediscount
the 1950s up to the present are discussed.
Completed
(February 1987)
The paper reviews the movement in MRRs and lending rates in the past four (4) years, and attempts
ship between the two interest rate indicators.
Completed
(May 1987)
The paper shows how the amount and direction
of loans gianted by the Central Bank to banks during
1986 are affected by monetary policies/priorities,
and the existing economic situation.
Completed
(November
1987)
study
uses reg;ressions
to estimate
parameters
of hypothesized
policy
equations
in the economy.
regarding
Policy structures
•exchange
rates and export
and changes through
prices.
the decades of
to establish
the relation-
the period
1979-
This paper attempts to provide a compendium
of available materials on rural women's access to credit in Southeast Asia and
'the Pacific Region. The information
is analyzed to provide some basis for policy decisions and project levels specifically
addressed to the role of women.
Completed
_tober 1987)
The study l_views road transportation
also examines freight and passenger
te_n_als.
Completed
(January 1987)
The paper
Completed
(August 1987)
The paper measures the effects of t-mancial liberalization
in the Philippines, partieuhrly
the deregulation
of interest rates in
1981, on the flow of funds in the household and financial sectors. The relationship
between the responsiveness
of real and
financial savings and avaih-nent of loans, to movements in deposit rates and secured loan rates during 1974-1985, is discussed
in detail
•Completed
(December
The study discusses the development
of the Philippine
lems hampering the growth of the market.
capital market,
Utilizing •monthly data from 1973-1985,
the empirical
based on Sim's cdterinn is presented and analyzed.
results
1987)
Completed
(October 1986)
I
reviews
III
II
the
changes
in terms of the industry's structure, intermodal
linkages, and the cost of operations.
It
movements
throughout
the country to determine economic mobility of consolidated
in monetary
policy
in
that has had implications
Illll
the factors
in economic
affecting
adjustment
its development,
of a simple test of causality between
exchange
and recovery.
and the prob-
rate and prices
13
DEVELOPMENT
AREA OF STUDY
RESEARCH NEWS
JANUARY-FEBRUARY
1988
TITLE OF RESEARCH
PROJECT (S)]STUDY
GEOGRAPHICAL
COVERAGE
PROJECT COOR_DINATOR (PC) OR
PRINCIPAL IN _
VESTIGATOR (Pl)
SPONSORING AGENCY
OR INSTITUTIONAL
AFFILIATION OF
RESEARCHER(S) a
Structural Reforms on
Local Government
Finance
Philippines
Angel Q. Yoingco (PI)
NTRC
A Study on Tax
Administlatiou and
Compliance in the
Philippines
Philippines
NTRC Staff (PI)
NEDA-TDI
Elasticity of the Philippine
Tax System
Philippines
Angel Q. Yoingco (PI)
NTRC
Prescription of Ceilings on
Certain Business
Deductions and
Application of Standard
Deduction Ratios
Manila, Quezon City,
Cebu, Antique,
Mindoxo, Cavite,
Bulacan and Rizal
Angel Q. Yoingco (NTRC)
and Rizalina S. Magalona
(BIR) (PCs)
PIDS
Study on Tax
Administration and
Compliance
Philippines
Angel Q. Yoingco (PI)
USAID/NEDA/NTRC
Personal Income Tax:
Inflation Adjustment of
Capital Gains
Region IV-A,
Philippines
Angel Q. Yoingco (PD
NTRC
Pelsonal Income Tax:
Inflation Adjustment of
Personal Exemptions
Philippines
Angel Q. Yoingco (PI)
NTRC
Public Debt
Debt-to-Equity Conversion
Program: The Philippine
Experience
Philippines
Nolman C. Dytianquin and
linminadaT. Sicat (PIs)
Central Bank
Fiscal Incentives
Rationalization of Fiscal
Incentives other than
those administered by the
Board of Investments
Philippines
Angel G. Yoingco (PI)
NTRC
Public Finance
National Budget
Revenues and
Expenditures
Tax Policies
_,
Hi|m
.
_
ii i
i
i t
,
The. fifth listing of the ClearinghouseProject will be
featured in the May-June 1988 issue of the DRN. The studies
that will' appear are on the areas of Human Resources, Labor
and Employment, Population, Regional, Rural and Urban Deve.
lopment, and Development Planning Methods and Approaches.
[41.
DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH
NEWS
JANUARY-FEBRUARY
1988
STATUSb
ABSTRACT•
On-going
(September 1988)
The study aims to amend the basic laws in local Finance, namely; P.D. 231 (Local Tax Code), P.D. 464 (Real Property Tax
Code), P.D. 144 and P.D_ 436 (National Allotments and Aid to Local Governments), so as to make them more effective and
responsive to the needs of the local governments. Despite their various revenue sources, local governments still are very
dependent on supplementary revenues plovided by the national government. This situation is partly attributed to limitations
on the taxing powers of local governments units and the lack of tax bases in their julisdictions. The references considered in
the proposed amendments include the provisions pertaining to local governments, as plovided for under Article X of the
constitution and the Local Government Code (B.P. 337).
Completed
(November 1986)
The study measures and analyzes the tax evasion behavior of Filipinos. It also provides a structural analysis of the income
tax law and looks into the efficiency of tax enforcement.
ff,_mpleted
!ober 1987)
The paper estimates the 'tax to income elasticity of the Philippines' over-aLltax structure and its component for the period
1976 to 1985.
Completed
(March 1987)
The study looks into a sizeable number of corporate and individual income tax returns to determine the average magnitude,
on an industry basis, of business deduction items. The three items which were perceived most susceptible to manipulation
were entertainment, tlavelling and advertising expenses.
Completed
(November 1986)
"l%e study identifies the problems in tax administration and tax compliance. It also empirically analyzes the extent, forms
and causes of tax evasion, and identifies opportunities for tax evasion through an examination of tax laws.
On-going
(January 1988)
The study aims to construct an indexation scheme so that only real gains from real estate or land holdings of people are
taxed. It uses data from the revaluation of properties by the assessors, zonal values, and land values set by realtors.
On-going
(February 1988)
The paper examines thlee indexing methods; namely-, 1) full-indexation; 2) partial indexation; and 3) elasticity approach.
Which adjustment scheme is to be employed depends on how much tax relief the government is willing to grant, taking into
account the consequent revenue diminnition.
Completed
z-L'_uary 1988)
The paper describes the Philippine debt-to-equity convelsion program and examines its overall impact on the economy. The
difficulties and problems encountered in its execution is also brought up. Some possible areas for improvement are suggested, borrowing from the experiences of other countries adopting similar schemes, and based on an undellying theoretical
framework that describes the nature and market of debt conversion. The framework also allows discussion of benefits and
costs to host countries and the conditions for successful implementation of the program.
Completed (1988)
(First and second batch
of studies)
The study aims to assess the incentive's effectiveness in contributing to the attainment of national development goals.
IIIll
Abbreviations
Illlllll
Used:
A CPC
-
Agricultural
Credit and Policy Council
ADB
-
Asian Development
ACPC
-
ASEAN
Bank
Agn'eultural
Devel°pment
ACPC
-
U.N. Asian Pacific Development
BAEcon
-
Bureau of Agricultural
_lull
...........
i
Planning
Center
Economies
UP-CPA
-
U.P. College of Public Administration
BAS
-
Bureau of Agricultural
DAP
-
Development
DLSU
-
De La Salle University
DOTC
-
Department
Statistics
Center
Academy
o_' the PhtTippines
of Transportation
and Communication
mll
I
I
IIIIIIIII
IIII
15
DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH
NEWS
JANUARY-FEBRUARY1988
EPRS*
-
Economic Planning and Research Staff (NEDA)
PDPRP
- Population
ESCAP
UP-SARDFi
FAO
- Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (UNJ
- Food and Agriculture Organization
1DE
- lnstitute for Developing Economies (Japan)
SERDEF
- Small Enterprises Research Development
IDRC
.- International Development
SRSP
- Special Research and Study Project (NEDA)
Research Center (Cana-
da)
Development
Project (NEDA)
- U.P. Social Action
Foundation, inc.
Planning and Research _"
Research and Development
Founda-
tion
1FAD
- International Fund for Agricultural Development
UP-SURP -
U.P. School o¢"Urban and Regional Planning
1PC
- Institute of Philipp&e Odture (Ateneo de Manila)
TBAC
-
Technical Board on Agricultural Credit
NCSO +
NEDA
NIA.
- National Census and Statistics Office
- National Economic and Development Authorzty
- National Irrigation Administration
TDI
-
Training and Development
UNDP
-
United Nations Development Programme
NTRC
- National Tax Research Center
USAID
-
United States Agency for International Development
Issues (NEDA )
*Now referred to as the National Planning and Policy Staff (NIPS).
+Now referred to as the National Statistics Office (NSO}.
Notes:
aln cases where there appearstwo (2) or more institutions involved in the researchproject, this has been indicated. The first institution cited
is normally the funding or sponsoringagency.
bstatus indicators are "'completed", "on-going",or "_ipeline'" Hence, the date that appears after the "status" indicator states the date of
completion (if completed);or the expected date of completion (if on-going);or date of launching (if pipeline).
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DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS is a bi.monthly publication of the PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT STUDIES 0PlDS). It highlights findings and recommendations culled from PIDS-sponsored research or related
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The views and opinions published iaere are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Inlttitute.
Inquiries regarding any of the studies contained in this publication, or any of the PID S papers, as well as any _8gesttions or comments on the publications are welcome. Please address all related correpondenee or inquiries to:
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