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Exit, Voice and Loyalty:
Migration, crisis and the
‘discourses of discontent’ in
post-communist society
Charles Woolfson
REMESO, Institute for Research on
Migration, Ethnicity and Society,
Linköping University
Structure of Presentation
1. ‘Exit’, ‘voice’ and ‘loyalty’
2. The crisis of post-communist neoliberalism
3. Responses to the crisis - ‘discourses
of discontent’
4. Failure of ‘voice’ and renewed ‘exit’ –
a ‘second surge’ of migration from
East to West?
Exit,Voice and Loyalty: Responses to
Decline in Firms, Organizations, and
States Albert O. Hirschman, 1970.
• Disappointment of expectations as the quality
of services in an organisation deteriorates
• ‘Exit’ – leave the organisation
• ‘Voice’ - expression of dissatisfaction - ‘general
protest addressed to anyone who cares to listen’
• ‘Loyalty’ - confounding factor– tends to delay
‘exit’ and legitimise ‘voice’
• Both ‘exit’ and ‘voice’ can be ‘recuperative
mechanisms’ allowing organisational recovery
• ‘Voice’ and ‘exit’ can also work together to
reinforce organisational failure rather than
recovery
‘The boom’
Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2008
• Lithuania’s economic miracle continues
unabated. With one of the highest growth
rates in Europe and a marked decrease in
unemployment, the country now enjoys
the benefits of reforms implemented
during the 1990s.
• EU accession in 2004 further bolstered the
country’s continuing economic miracle.
Source http://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/fileadmin/pdf/Gutachten_BTI_2008/ECSE/Lithuania.pdf
Corporate taxes in the selected
countries, 2004: 11 lowest rates of
taxation (percent)
Source: UNCTAD 2004, World Investment Report 2003, Geneva 78
The ‘Baltic Tigers’ GDP Growth Rates 2006
Loans to non-financial enterprises
and households
Source: Bank of Lithuania, Financial Stability Review, 2006 from Rainer Kattel Financial Fragility in the Baltic States
Global Property Guide, 2007
Total social protection expenditures as %
of GDP in Eastern Europe
Expenditure on social protection as % GDP
32.9%
13.3%
‘The Bust’
The ‘Hard Landing’ – a foreseeable disaster
Real GDP growth rate compared to
previous year
GDP 2009
% change compared with the same
quarter of the previous year
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Estonia
-15.0
-16.1
-15.6
-9.5
Latvia
-18.5
-17.0
-19.2
-17.1
Lithuania
-15.3
-16.6
-14.7
-13.2
source: Eurostat PEEIs http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/207042010-BP/EN/2-07042010-BP-EN.PDF
Construction output 2009 – annual variation
% change compared with the same quarter of the previous year
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Estonia
-31.3
-28.3
-28.5
-25.7
Latvia
-29.7
-32.4
-36.8
-38.5
Lithuania -42.8
-48.0
-49.3
-52.3
Volume of retail trade Sep 09 – Feb 10
% change compared with the same month of
the previous year
Estonia
Sept Oct Nov Dec
09
09
09
09
-21.3 -18.6 -21.2 -16.0
Jan
10
-9.0
Feb
10
-7.2
Latvia
-30.5 -28.6 -30.1 -30.1
-16.0
-13.3
Lithuania -25.6 -24.7 -27.5 -26.7
-16.8
-17.1
Household consumption expenditure 2009
% change compared to same quarter of 2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Estonia
-16.5
-19.4
-19.9
-18.2
Latvia
-18.3
-23.5
-25.6
-21.7
Lithuania -14.5
-16.9
-17.7
-19.0
Total hourly labour costs Q4 2009
compared to same quarter of 2008
Source: Eurostat PEEIs http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/317032010-AP/EN/3-17032010-AP-EN.PDF
Unemployment in the Baltic States:
by quarter 2009/2010
source: Statistics Lithuania
http://www.stat.gov.lt/en/news/view?id=8612&PHPSESSID=b76ba862ad603ba09ac9822e498ca4ec
Percentage of part-time workers in
employed population
2008 Q2/ 2009 Q2
IMF Global Economic Outlook
April 2010
• Economies that faced the crisis with
unsustainable domestic booms that had
fueled excessively large current account
deficits (Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania) and
those with vulnerable private or public
sector balance sheets (Hungary, Romania,
Baltics) are expected to recover more
slowly.
Lithuania
16 January 2009
Protest against crisis measures
‘Teargas and truncheons’
‘Voice’
• Unfolding ‘narratives of resistance’ or
‘discourses of discontent’ from below
• Addressed to ruling authorities and posing
incompatible (?) questions about the new
social order (post-communism).
• A condensed ‘telegraphy of protest’ news reports, slogans on banners and
placards, protest manifestos and
declarations, voices on the street.
• Issues of fairness and social justice and
perceived betrayal of expectations
16 January 2009
Protesters gather outside parliament
Prime Minister – don’t make your wallet
fuller using money taken away from our
children
Union Confederation leaders
Supporters listening
Our power is in being united!
For workers’ rights!
For the Lithuanian worker –
a European salary
Jokers out from Parliament!
Freedom for word and press!!!
Who is the president, parliament
and government serving?
A.Brazauskas – why have you
stopped progressive taxation?
The parliament are thieves
Let’s tax ‘fart’ coming out of Parliament !!
Stop business collapse!
‘Double patriotism’ – Lithuanian flag
and Lithuanian basketball flag
Waiting for the ‘right’ moment…
The ‘ extreme right’
Demonstrators deputation asks to
meet with Prime Minister
Hammering on the door of the
parliament
Anger
Snowballs, eggs and rocks
Fulfilling their ‘historic mission’
The dogs
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cinamonas/3202692521/
Fear
No Fear!
Load up, load up, load up with
rubber bullets !
Teargas on Independence Square
Special Forces
Can this be Lithuania?
A ‘rioter’
Discourses of discontent
Why are you unhappy?
‘I paid so much taxes that this is all I
have left’ – holds up plastic bag of
white ‘cent’ coins.
‘This is not what we imagined. We
imagined a completely different
Lithuania. All people want justice.
‘Muted’ voices
“Barefoot policemen – the nation
is in danger”
Firefighters - to the rescue…
Mothers and babies protest
benefit cuts
‘Silenced’ protester
‘Exit’
and the end of loyalty
Cumulative outflows of EU8 citizens into
EU15 Member States (2004-2007)
% of Working Age Population of Individual
EU8 Countries
Source: Francesca D'Auria, Kieran Mc Morrow and Karl Pichelmann, Economic impact of migration
flows following the 2004 EU enlargement process: A model based analysis.
Emigration and Immigration 1990-2006
Source: International Migration of Lithuanian Population 2006, Statistics Lithuania
Lithuania official migration statistics
2001-2008
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
7 253
7 086
11 032
15 165
15 571
12 602 13 853 17 015
NB. 60% underestimate of true figure suggests that actual figure for
2008 equals the peak the 2005 post-EU accession surge.
Source: Statistics Lithuania
The end of ‘loyalty’
“In the spiritual sense, we have a lot
of people disappointed with their
authorities and the state, citizens who
believe in nothing, and we must
breathe self-confidence and trust in a
common Lithuanian future into these
citizens”.
A. Kubilius, Prime Minister of
Lithuania, April 2009.
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/22716/
Lithuania
1991 76%
2009 50%
Change -26%
Lithuania
2009 48%
Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7824942.stm
More ‘exit’ after ‘voice’?
• ‘Double failure’ of ‘voice’
- organised social dialogue/protest
- muted ‘discourses of discontent’
• Systemic ‘shock’ / end of ‘loyalty’
• Renewed migratory ‘exit’ (silent
protest)
• ‘Internal exit’ (populism and
xenophobia?)