Download Forecasting Ceilings

Forecasting Ceilings
Meteorology 415
Fall 2011
Low Ceilings
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Any broken to overcast deck below 1000 ft
Part of MVFR (3miles and 1,000 ft)
Processes in the PBL play the major role
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Elevation is a prime factor
Precipitation (recent or current) has an influence
Direction of surface air flow (upslope is a must)
Fog season climatology is very important
Low Ceilings
Also check out the RUC and HRRR
Low Ceilings
Low Ceilings
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Consider advection of low ceilings
Decide on whether conditions warrant the
formation of low ceilings
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Rapid moistening of low levels
Winds become lighter or blow upslope
Surface convergence expected
Cooling of lower troposphere
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Or warming in the winter over cold ground / snow cover
Remember instrument’s ability to detect low ceilings
Low Ceilings
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Become familiar with
the Weather Depiction
Chart showing ceilings
and low visibilities…