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Two-Speed Europe? Minister for Finance Magdalena Andersson Stockholm 12 November 2015 Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 2 Challenging times for Europe First time asylum applicants Percent of current population 2012 and 2014 1,8% 1,6% 1,4% 1,2% 1,0% 2012 2014 2015 (forecast) 0,8% 0,6% 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% SE HU AT DK DE BG NL BE IT FR EL UK Source: Eurostat. Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 3 Other challenges Climate External Security GDP growth (y-o-y) 5 0 EU-sceptical opinions Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden -5 Economic Growth 4 Economic challenges 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real GDP (y-o-y) 1,7 -0,5 0,2 1,4 Public Debt 81,0 83,8 85,5 86,8 Inflation (HCIP) 3,1 2,6 1,5 0,6 Unemployment 9,7 10,5 10,9 10,2 - Youth Unemployment 21,7 23,3 23,7 22,2 Figures for EU-28 Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden • Diverging unit labour costs • Low productivity and potential growth • High public and private debt • High unemployment • Ageing population 5 Progress in some areas • European Stability Mechanism • ECB – Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) – Quantitative Easing (QE) • Reformed Economic Governance Framework • Banking Union • Financial support to crises countries Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 6 Different ways to organise cooperation Rely on market discipline Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden Rules-based framework Institutionalised framework 7 Current proposals Economic Union Fiscal Union Completing the EMU Political Union Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden Financial Union 8 Possibilities and risks + Better coordination could lead to less economic imbalances within the Euro area - Lack of popular support - Could increase the divergence between ins and outs within the European Union Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden Are we moving to a Two-Speed Europe… Steps are being taken to strengthen the Eurozone cooperation Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 9 …or a Multi-Speed Europe? EU Eurozone Schengen EFTA Fiscal compact Banking union FTT Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 10 …or a Multi-Speed Europe? EU Eurozone Eurozone Schengen EEA EFTA EFTA Fiscal compact Banking union FTT Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 11 …or a Multi-Speed Europe? EU Eurozone Schengen EFTA Fiscal compact Banking union FTT Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden …or a Multi-Speed Europe? EU Eurozone Schengen EFTA Fiscal compact Banking union FTT Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden …or a Multi-Speed Europe? EU Eurozone Schengen EFTA Fiscal compact Banking union FTT Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden …or a Multi-Speed Europe? EU Eurozone Schengen EEA EFTA EFTA Fiscal compact Banking Bankingunion union FTT Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 15 …or a Multi-Speed Europe? EU Eurozone Schengen EEA EFTA EFTA Fiscal compact Banking union FTT Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 16 17 Cooperation constellations vary between areas Internal market External trade EU-budget Security policy priorities Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 18 Swedish perspective • Want to be an active EU member – even if we are outside the euro • Internal market regulations is a priority for Sweden • Reasonable with closer cooperation but require more transparency for the Euro-group • Common concerns should be discussed and decided by all 28 member states • New initiatives should be open for all 28 member states as far as possible Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden 19 Thank you! Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden