Download Two-speed Europe

Two-Speed Europe?
Minister for Finance
Magdalena Andersson
Stockholm
12 November 2015
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
2
Challenging times for Europe
First time asylum applicants
Percent of current population 2012 and 2014
1,8%
1,6%
1,4%
1,2%
1,0%
2012
2014
2015 (forecast)
0,8%
0,6%
0,4%
0,2%
0,0%
SE
HU
AT
DK
DE
BG
NL
BE
IT
FR
EL
UK
Source: Eurostat.
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
3
Other challenges
Climate
External Security
GDP growth (y-o-y)
5
0
EU-sceptical
opinions
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
-5
Economic Growth
4
Economic challenges
2011
2012
2013
2014
Real GDP
(y-o-y)
1,7
-0,5
0,2
1,4
Public Debt
81,0
83,8
85,5
86,8
Inflation (HCIP)
3,1
2,6
1,5
0,6
Unemployment
9,7
10,5
10,9
10,2
- Youth
Unemployment
21,7
23,3
23,7
22,2
Figures for
EU-28
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
• Diverging unit labour
costs
• Low productivity and
potential growth
• High public and
private debt
• High unemployment
• Ageing population
5
Progress in some areas
• European Stability Mechanism
• ECB
– Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT)
– Quantitative Easing (QE)
• Reformed Economic Governance Framework
• Banking Union
• Financial support to crises countries
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
6
Different ways to organise
cooperation
Rely on
market discipline
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
Rules-based
framework
Institutionalised
framework
7
Current proposals
Economic
Union
Fiscal
Union
Completing
the EMU
Political
Union
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
Financial
Union
8
Possibilities and risks
+ Better coordination could lead to less
economic imbalances within the Euro area
- Lack of popular support
- Could increase the divergence between ins
and outs within the European Union
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
Are we moving to a Two-Speed
Europe…
Steps are
being taken
to strengthen
the Eurozone
cooperation
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
9
…or a Multi-Speed Europe?
EU
Eurozone
Schengen
EFTA
Fiscal compact
Banking union
FTT
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
10
…or a Multi-Speed Europe?
EU
Eurozone
Eurozone
Schengen
EEA
EFTA
EFTA
Fiscal compact
Banking union
FTT
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
11
…or a Multi-Speed Europe?
EU
Eurozone
Schengen
EFTA
Fiscal compact
Banking union
FTT
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
…or a Multi-Speed Europe?
EU
Eurozone
Schengen
EFTA
Fiscal compact
Banking union
FTT
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
…or a Multi-Speed Europe?
EU
Eurozone
Schengen
EFTA
Fiscal compact
Banking union
FTT
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
…or a Multi-Speed Europe?
EU
Eurozone
Schengen
EEA
EFTA
EFTA
Fiscal compact
Banking
Bankingunion
union
FTT
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
15
…or a Multi-Speed Europe?
EU
Eurozone
Schengen
EEA
EFTA
EFTA
Fiscal compact
Banking union
FTT
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
16
17
Cooperation constellations
vary between areas
Internal market
External trade
EU-budget
Security policy
priorities
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
18
Swedish perspective
• Want to be an active EU member – even if we
are outside the euro
• Internal market regulations is a priority for
Sweden
• Reasonable with closer cooperation but require
more transparency for the Euro-group
• Common concerns should be discussed and
decided by all 28 member states
• New initiatives should be open for all 28
member states as far as possible
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden
19
Thank you!
Ministry of Finance Sweden
Government Offices of Sweden