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Training Seminar Evaluation of energy efficiency trends and potentials Grenoble, 30 January – 10 February 2006 Simple macro-economic indicators : energy intensities Bruno Lapillonne Energy intensities: definition •Ratios of energy consumption to GDP or value added •Measured in energy units per monetary unit at constant prices: toe / 95 ( 95: at 1995 constant national prices converted in ) •Provide an assessment of how much energy intensive is an economy •Variation over time indicate trends in “overall economic efficiency”or “energy productivity” •Same way electricity intensities (kWh/ )or carbon intensities (CO2/ ) Macro-economic data used for energy intensities (national currency at constant market prices ) GDP = sum of VA of : agriculture and fishing activities industry (Section C + D + E + F) service sector indirect taxe (about 10%) GDP expenditure = private consumption of households (about 60-70% of GDP) + gross investment + government consumption + import export Energy intensities: general trends -Usually increase over time in countries in development Ł The economy is more and more “energy intensive” (industrialisation, diffusion of household appliance and cars, increase welfare…): the energy consumption increases more rapidly than the GDP -Decreasing trends in most developed OECD countries Ł The economies are less and less “energy intensive” (“tertiarisation”, saturation in the diffusion of household appliance and cars, …) Primary versus final energy intensity: correspond to two different level of measurement of the energy consumption -Primary energy consumption: total consumption of coal, oil, gas , primary electricity, electricity trade balance and renewable - Final energy consumption: total consumption of final consumers: industry (excluding energy industries) ,transport, households, services & agriculture Ł for energy efficiency indicators, non energy uses are excluded from final energy consumption -Difference primary / final: consumption and losses in energy transformations (especially electricity sector) and non energy uses Primary versus final energy intensity: correspond to two different level of measurement of the energy consumption -Primary energy intensity : measure trend in the overall productivity of energy in a counrty - Final energy intensity: : measure trend in the energy productivity of final consumers only, ie excluding energy industries (power sector) and non energy uses Primary versus final energy intensities -As a long term trend ,primary intensity increase faster or decrease slower than final intensity due to increase losses in energy transformations , …. as economies are more and more electricity intensive, which increase transformations losses each time electricity is not produced from hydro Final / primary consumption Energy balance - Sweden (1999) PRIMARY PRODUCTION Imports Exports Marine bunkers Stock variations PRIMARY CONSUMPTION Refineries Power plants CHP plants Heat plants Own use Distribution losses FINAL CONSUMPTION industry transport households, services households non energy uses Coal 0,2 2,2 0,1 2,5 Crude Oil Oil Products 21 -0,5 0,6 0,6 Hydro 6,2 Wood waste 8,6 20,5 -20,5 5,9 -9,5 -1,5 0,9 -4,2 21,6 -0,2 -0,1 0 -0,6 -0,3 -2 14,5 2,6 7,9 2,9 1,1 1,1 0,4 0,3 5,3 4,4 0,1 0,1 0,9 -0,7 -0,1 -1,1 Gas Nuclear 19,1 0,7 0,7 Elec. Heat 0,4 0,7 -1,4 19,1 6,2 -19,1 -6,2 8,6 -2,5 -0,8 -0,7 12,5 0,9 -1 -0,9 10,8 4,6 0,2 6 3,6 0,4 2,1 1,5 0 -0,2 3,8 0,3 3,5 1,2 Total 34,5 30,5 -11,4 -1,5 1 53,1 1,1 -13,5 -0,4 0,3 -4,1 -1,1 35,4 12,8 8,1 13,4 6 1,1 Primary and final energy intensities -However on recent years and some EU countries reverse trends are observed due to improved efficiency of power plants (gas combined cycle,cogeneration) -Year to year variation depend on the share of hydro in power generation as there is no loss for hydro compared to 60-70% losses for thermal plant and 67% for nuclear Since 1990, the energy demand has increased twice less rapidly than the economic activity on average in the EU-15 Variation of energy intensities in the UE-15 between 1990 et 2002 3% 2% Primary energy intensity decreases generally more rapidly than the final energy intensity due to efficiency gains in the electricity generation. 1% %/an Drop around 1%/an of primary and final energy intensities in the UE-15; Variable decrease among countries except Spain and Portugal 0% -1% -2% … except in some countries such as France, where the decrease is larger at final level (nuclear effect) -3% U Lu xe m bo ur g ni t e Irl an d ki ng d D do m en m a Sw rk ed G en e N rm et an he y rla nd U s E1 Fr 5 an Be ce lg iu G m re ec e Ita Au ly st r Fi ia nl an d Sp a Po in rt u ga l -4% primary intensity final intensity Decrease of primary and final energy intensities in CEEC’s: 1992/2000 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Faster decrease for primary intensity Increase of hydro in Slovenia and Latvia decrease of nuclear in Lithuania; efficiency improvement of thermal generation for others Sl ov a Bu kia l C gar ze ch ia R e Es p to H nia un ga r La y t Li via tu an Po ia l R and om a Sl nia ov en ia % Increase of nuclear in Bulgaria and Slovakia Lower Reduction For primary primary final Ratio final/ primary energy intensities (%) 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 1991 2003 EU 15 UK Ne th er la nd s Ita ly Fr an ce Sp ai n G er m an y De nm ar k 40 Electricity intensities (electricity consumption /GDP) : increase rapidly in all countries kWh/1000$95 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 an Fr e dg o b m Ca ce in rk u B o as F a 1980 al M 1990 i au M an ri t ie r ge i N 2000 Elasticity of energy consumption to GDP - Elasticity measures the relative variation of the consumption in relation to the GDP - Over a period, can be approximated by the ratio of annual growth rate of the consumption over average GDP annual growth rate -If consumption grows by 2%/ year and GDP by 5% /year between 1990 and 2000 elasticity= 2/5= 0.4 over period 1990-2000 Elasticity of energy consumption to GDP and intensity to GDP - Elasticity measures relation consumption GDP over a period - Intensity calculated for specific years - Intensity in monetary units ; elasticity without unit: - Elasticity more useful for comparison of trends over time and by country - Intensity useful for measuring levels Intensity increase élasticity > 1 Intensity decrease élasticity < 1 Intensity stable élasticity= 1 Interpretation of indicators trends : role of prices • Need to calculate average price by sector in real terms • Average : weighted average of the price of each type of energy ( weighted by the share of each energy in the consumption of the sector) • Real Ł at constant prices (= current prices divided by the GDP deflator •or consumer price index) Average real price per sector 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 0 Motor fuels (average) Industry (average) Households( average) Elasticity of demand to price - Elasticity: measure the relative variation of demand to price variation - Equal the relative demand variation to the relative price variation - I the price increases by 10% and the demand is rdeuced by 3% over one year elasticity = - 3/10= - 0.3 Cross country- comparisons of energy intensities adjustments to purchasing power parities ? Adjustment to price differences with Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) •Conversion of national currencies in € with exchange rates does not reflect the fact that in accession countries consumer prices are on average much lower than in the EU Ł by a factor 2 on average Ł in a range of 1.5 for Slovenia to about 3 for Bulgaria or Romania •Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) account for price differences Ł they improve the comparison of economic indicators, such as energy intensities •When converting national currencies in € at PPP Ł the GDP increases by a factor 1.5 for Slovenia or 3 for Bulgaria or Romania Ł and the energy intensity decreases by the same factor . GDP per capita: actual and at purchasing Power Parities (1000 $/capita) (2002)) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 EU-15 GDP per capita Bulgaria Slovenia Turkey GDP at purchasing power parity per capita Why using Purchasing Power Parities for cross country comparisons of energy performance •Let us take 3 factories producing cars : one in the EU , one in Slovenia and one in Romania or Bulgaria, with the same technical performance, ie the same energy input by car produced (in toe or GJ per car) •The value added of each car is mainly made from salaries (capital costs and profits also included) , whose relative level across countries are mainly influenced by the average difference in the cost of living (1.5 times lower for Slovenia and and 3 times lower for Bulgaria and Romania) Ł With the same technical performance, the energy used per unit of value added (« energy intensity » for the car industry will be 1.5 and 3 times higher than in the EU in Slovenia and Romania/ Bulgaria respectively with exchange rates but the same at PPP Primary energy intensities (2001) Purchasing power parities narrow the differences across countries 1,6 1,4 1,2 koe/ 1 Range : factor 8 0,8 0,6 Range : factor 2.4 0,4 0,2 E U B ul ga C ze ria ch R ep E st o ni a H un ga ry La tv ia Li th ua ni a P ol an d R om an ia S lo va ki a S lo ve ni a 0 at exchange rate at purchasing power parities (ppp) Purchasing Power Parities Use of PPP increases GDP and, thus, decreases energy intensity of countries with low cost of living ( usually countries with low incomes); conversely intensity of rich countries increases Ł PPP narrows differences between countries. PPP affects the ranking of intensities among countries,… but does not change the trends Energy intensities trends: exchange rate versus at purchasing power parities PPP affects the ranking of intensities among countries,… but does not change the trends 0 ,2 5 0 ,2 0 ,1 5 0 ,1 0 ,0 5 0 1 980 1 981 1 982 1 983 Portugal PPP 1 984 1 985 1 986 1 987 Japon PPP 1 988 1 989 1 990 1 991 1 992 1 993 1 994 Portugal Exch. Rate 1 995 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 Japon Exch. Rate Ranking of primary intensities at world level and variation -1.4 % 0 % -0.9 % -2.4 % -6.2 % -0.3 % -0.5 % -1.7 % + 1.2 % + 0.2 % -0.4 % +0.7 % -1.1 % Intenisté primaire en in kep/$95ppa Source: Enerdata Grandes disparités des niveaux d’intensités et des tendances au niveau mondial. La Chine explique 1/4 de la réduction mondiale kWh/1000$ppa Electricity intensities : at exchange rates versus ppp (2000) 400 350 300 Rapprochement des niveaux en ppa 250 200 150 100 50 0 an Fr e dg o b m Ca ce in rk u B o as F a $95 al M i au M an ri t ie r ge i N $ppa95 Comparisons of primary and final energy intensities : other adjustements Cross country- comparisons of energy efficiency performance : what other adjustments ? Adjustments for differences in : •Transformation losses (primary fuel/technology mix) •Climate •Economic and industrial activities Second adjustment: to average EU primary fuel mix For some countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania), consumption for transformation very high Ł after adjustment to same primary fuel mix, range down to 1. 9 for primary intensities : to be adjusted now for climatic differences and economic structures 250 150 100 50 actual at EU transformation mix E U P ol an d R om an ia S lo va ki a S lo ve ni a ua ni a Li th La tv ia y un ga r H ni a E st o ep R ze ch C ul ga r ia 0 B EU = 100 200 Third adjustment : space heating use to same climate (EU 15 average) : case of households Adjustment reduces the unit consumption in countries colder than the EU average, in2relation to the degree-days difference 1,8 toe/dwelling 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 actual EU Slovenia Slovakia Romania Poland Lithuania Latvia Hungary Estonia Czech Rep 0 Bulgaria 0,2 scaled to EU climate Same for services Final energy intensities adjusted to same climate (EU15 average) (at purchasing power parities) 200 180 160 EU = 100 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 d ia ia ia ia p ia ry ia ia ar ak an en la n ma n Re sto n nga La tv g u v l v o h o h o P E Hu Bu ze c Sl Ro Sl Lit C at ppp at ppp and EU climate Adjustment important for Baltic countries: their cold climate explain an intensity of about 15% higher: maximum range down to 1.8 EU Fourth and last adjustment to same economic and industrial structures Differences in final energy intensity level for come from: •different industry and economic structures (% of GDP by branch) •different level of intensities of branches To leave out difference in economic structures calculation of a fictive intensity with the actual sectoral intensities of each country and the same industry and economic structures as the EU average ( GDP structure adjustment made for services, agriculture, mining, construction ,and main manufacturing branches) Primary energy intensities : all adjustments After all adjustments, primary intensities are for most countries about 50% higher than the EU average and the maximum range decreases from 2.4 to 1.8 250 150 100 at ppp EU Slovenia Slovakia Romania Poland Lithuania Latvia Hungary Estonia 0 Czech Rep 50 Bulgaria EU=100 200 at ppp and at EU climate ,structure & primary fuel mix