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Overall Energy Efficiency Trends in the EU
Authors: Bruno Lapillonne, Karine Pollier (April 2014)
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Economic and energy context
Energy consumption trends
Energy efficiency trends
Energy intensity trends
Cross-country comparison of energy intensities
Economic growth: GDP in 2012 close to its 2007 value
Since 2007, GDP growth has been very erratic, with 2 years of growth (2010 and
2011, around 2%/year), a strong recession in 2009 (- 4.3%) , resulting in a
variation of -0.2%/year on average.
GDP growth (EU area)
3%
2.2%
2.3%
2.0%
2%
1.7%
%/year
1%
0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-4.5%
-5%
1990-2000 2000-2007 2007-2012
.
2009
2010
2011
2012
3
Rapid increase of the prices in 1999, 2005 and 2008 (2010-2012 for Brent).
 Drop in international fuel prices in 2009 (-32% for oil)
Since 2011, decreasing trends for coal prices, rather stability for gas prices.
In 2013, the price of oil and natural gas is around 2.5 times higher than in 2000.
International energy prices
100=1990
260
180
100
20
1990
1992 1994
Oil (Brent)
1996
1998 2000 2002 2004
Imported price, natural gas
2006
2008 2010 2012 2013
Imported price,coal
4
Very rapid increase of the energy prices since 2009 ( 9%/year for the average energy
price for final consumers).
Since 1999, this average price increased by 70% (4%/year ), with a more rapid
progression for industry (5.2%/year) and a slower increase for motor fuels (3.5%/year).
Average real energy prices by sector
200
180
100=1990
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990
1992
1994
1996
Motor fuels
1998
2000
Households
2002
2004
Industry
2006
2008
Average
2010
2012
5
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Economic and energy context
Energy consumption trends
Energy efficiency trends
Energy intensity trends
Cross-country comparison of energy intensities
 Strong reduction of the primary consumption since 2007 (-1.6%/year although
the GDP only slightly decreased.
 Primary energy consumption is in 2012 back to its 1990 level
Primary energy consumption and GDP trends (EU)
160
2.5%
150
2.0%
140
1.5%
130
1.0%
120
0.5%
110
0.0%
100
-0.5%
90
-1.0%
80
-1.5%
70
-2.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
GDP
Primary consumption (normal climate)
2000-2007
GDP
2007-2012
Primary consumption (normal climate)
7
 More rapid progression of GDP in new member countries (more than 4%/year)
Half of countries with primary energy consumption higher than 1%/year
Variation of primary energy consumption and GDP in EU countries (2000-2007)
0
2000-2007
0
0
0
0
Consumption
GDP
Energy consumption at normal climate
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Latvia
Estonia
Croatia
Spain
Austria
Ireland
Cyprus
Greece
Czech Rep.
Finland
Slovenia
Malta
Netherlands
Bulgaria
Norway
Italy
Romania
Poland
Sweden
Hungary
Denmark
EU 27
France
Belgium
Portugal
Slovakia
UK
0
Germany
%/year
0
8
 22 countries with a decrease of the primary energy consumption, of which 9 > 3%/yr
In most countries contraction of consumption much larger than GDP variation
Variation of primary energy consumption and GDP in EU countries (2007-2012)
4%
3%
Consumption
2%
GDP
%/year
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
*at normal climate
Belgium
Poland
Norway
Sweden
Luxembourg
Austria
Slovenia
Cyprus
France
Slovakia
Netherlands
Germany
Finland
Bulgaria
EU 27
Czech Rep.
Italy
Denmark
Croatia
Latvia
Ireland
UK
Greece
Spain
Romania
Portugal
Lithuania
-6%
9
Final consumption by energy in the EU
 Increasing share for electricity (from 17% in 1990 to 22% in 2012), gas (from 21
to 23%), and biomass (from 4 to 8%)
Decreasing share for coal (from 12 to 4%); the other energies remain constant.
1200
1000
Mtoe
800
600
400
200
0
1990
coal
oil
2000
gas
electricity
heat
Source Eurostat
2012
wood and wastes
10
Final consumption by energy in the EU countries (2011)
 Oil is the main energy consumed in EU except in Netherlands, Hungary and
Slovakia (gas is the main energy), Sweden and Norway (main energy : electricity)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Estonia
Denmark
Greece
Poland
Finland
Malta
Ireland
Slovenia
Sweden
Portugal
Austria
Bulgaria
Spain
Croatia
Romania
France
Czech Rep.
EU
Germany
Belgium
Italy
UK
Norway
Slovakia
Hungary
Netherlands
0%
biomass
heat
coal
electricity
gas
oil
11
Final consumption by country in the EU (2011)
EU- 15 : around 84% of total
Germany, France ,UK and Italy: 55% of total EU
Cyprus
Greece
2%Hungary 0%
Romania 1%
Czech Rep.2%
Malta
0%
2%
Finland
Austria 2%
2%
Sweden
3%
Belgium
3%
Netherlands
5%
Poland
6%
Germany
19%
France
13%
Spain
8%
UK
12%
Italy
11%
12
Cumulative final energy consumption by country in the EU
120%
Cumulative consumption
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1
6
11
16
Number of countries
21
26
13
Final energy consumption by sector in the EU
Increasing share for transport (from 26% in 1990 to 32% in 2012) and services (from 10
to 14%). The share of industry has decreased by almost 10 percentage points, from
34% in 1990 to 26% in 2012. For households the share is rather constant (26%).
1200
1000
Mtoe
800
600
400
200
0
1990
Non specified
Agriculture
2000
Tertiary
Households
Source Eurostat
2012
Transport
Industrie
14
Final consumption by sector in the EU countries (2011)

At EU level transport represent 33% of the final energy consumption, following by
households 28%, industry 24%, services 13% and agriculture.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Finland
Slovakia
Sweden
Czech Rep.
Norway
Portugal
Romania
Spain
Austria
Bulgaria
Belgium
Germany
Slovenia
EU
Italy
Poland
Netherlands
Croatia
France
Lithuania
UK
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Hungary
Latvia
Denmark
Luxembourg
Malta
Cyprus
0%
agriculture
services
households
transport
industry
15
Final energy consumption trends (EU)
 Slow progression of the final energy consumption from 2000 to 2008 (0,5 %/year);
 More rapid progression for electricity (+1.5%/year)
 Strong reduction for the final energy consumption in 2009 (-5.8%) more rapid than
the GDP drop(-4.5%).
 Since 2010 electricity consumption and GDP increased at the same rate (+1.9%)
 Final energy consumption remains rather stable over the last 2 years.
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
1990
GDP
1992
1994
1996
1998
Final consumption (normal climate)
2000
2002
2004
2006
Electricity consumption
2008
2010
2012
Average end-use price
16
Final energy consumption trends by sector (EU)
Strong effect of the crisis in all sectors since 2007, especially in industry
High growth of electricity consumption in services and to a lesser extent for
households until 2007 ; slow down since 2007.
-1%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-3%
2000-2007
2007-2012
2000-2007
Household & services at normal climate; non energy uses excluded
total
-1%
agriculture
0%
services
0%
total
1%
agriculture
1%
services
2%
households
2%
transport
3%
industry
3%
households
Electricity consumption
industry
Final energy consumption
transport


2007-2012
17
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Economic and energy context
Energy consumption trends
Energy efficiency trends
Energy intensity trends
Cross-country comparison of energy intensities
Energy efficiency index (ODEX) for final consumers (EU)

100
95

100=2000
90
85
80
75

ODEX= 85 in 2012  15% energy
efficiency improvement


70
Industry
Transport
Households (technical)
Total
15%
energy
efficiency
improvement between 2000 and
2012(or 1.4%/year)
Net slow down since the economic
crisis: 0.6%/year since 2007,
compared to 1.5%/year between
2000 and 2007
No progress for industry since the
beginning of the economic crisis
(1.8%/year until 2007, 0.4%/year
afterwards)
Regular and larger gains for
households (1.9%/year).
Lower progress for transport
(1%/year), due to negative savings
for the transport of goods since
the economic crisis.
ODEX is calculated as a 3 years moving average to avoid short term fluctuations (imperfect climatic corrections,
behavioural factors, business cycles)…. Services are not included due to the difficulty of measuring energy savings with
existing data.
19
 Energy efficiency improvement above or around 2%/year for 6 new
member countries since 2000;
 12 other countries with improvement > 1%/year
 10 countries with less than 1%/year of improvements.
Energy efficiency improvement for final consumers in EU countries (2000-2011)
3.0
2.0
> 2%/year
1.5
1.0
> 1%/year
0.5
0.0
Poland
Hungary
Latvia
Bulgaria
Romania
Lithuania
Norway
Slovenia
UK
Netherlands
Ireland
Slovakia
France
EU
Austria
Denmark
Germany
Malta
Cyprus
Italy
Croatia
Greece
Belgium
Czech Rep
Sweden
Estonia
Portugal
Finland
Spain
Luxembourg
%/year
2.5
20



About 160 Mtoe energy savings in 2012 compared to 2000 (i.e. 15% of final energy
consumption). In other words without energy savings the final energy consumption
would have been 15% higher in 2012.
Lower progression of energy savings since 2008, as direct result of the economic crisis
Around 40% of total savings in households, 32% for industry, 28% for transport
Evaluation of energy savings (EU)
180
Industry
Transport
Households
Cumulative savings :58 Mtoe
160
140
Cumulative savings :103 Mtoe
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
21
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Economic and energy context
Energy consumption trends
Energy efficiency trends
Energy intensity trends
Cross-country comparison of energy intensities


Regular decrease in energy intensities whatever the period in a range of 1.41.6%/yr
Similar trend for the primary and final energy intensities
Primary and final energy intensity trends (EU)
%/year
1990-2000
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2.0
2000-2007
2007-2011
Primary
At normal climate
Final
23
 The primary intensity decreased faster than the final intensity in half of countries due
to improvement in power generation efficiency ( gas-combined cycles and wind)
Reverse trend in other countries, especially Netherlands (increasing share of non
energy uses), Belgium (increasing share of electricity), Finland , Sweden and Norway
(decreasing share of hydro).
Primary and final energy intensities trends in EU countries (2000-2011)
0%
-1%
-3%
-4%
Slower decrease of
primary intensity
Norway
Luxembourg
final
Belgium
Netherlands
Finland
UK
France
EU 27
Slovenia
Bulgaria
Ireland
Poland
Slovakia
Germany
Romania
Cyprus
Italy
Denmark
Latvia
Croatia
Greece
Spain
Portugal
-6%
Sweden
primary
Austria
Faster decrease of
primary intensity
Czech Rep.
-5%
Lithuania
%/year
-2%
24
 Increasing final energy intensity when GDP growth falls under 2% (case of
1993, 1996, 2002-2003 or 2008 : part of final consumption is not dependant
on GDP; 2009 did not follow that trend because of deep structural changes in
industry (greater contraction of activity in energy intensive branches).
 The highest the economic growth, the more rapid the decrease of the
intensity; again, this did not happen in 2010 as the significant rebound of
activity was accompanied by an increase in the energy intensity.
%/year
Variation of GDP and final energy intensity
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP
Final energy intensity
25
Over 2000-2011 structural changes towards less energy intensive sectors (services
and within industry) contributed to around 15% of the final intensity reduction.
The contribution of structural changes to the final intensity variation was quite
similar before and after the crisis .
Impact of structural changes on the final intensity (EU)
2000-2007
2007-2011
2000-2011
0.0%
%/year
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
actual
at constant structure
structural changes
-2.0%
Structural changes include changes in the share of the different economic sectors in the GDP (services,
agriculture, construction, mining and manufacturing), as well as changes within manufacturing branches.
26
Impact of structural changes on the final intensity (2000-2011)
 Most countries have moved to a less energy intensive sectors
More intensive
structure
Less energy intensive structure
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
actual
at constant structure
structural changes
Latvia
Slovenia
Finland
Netherlands
UK
Norway
Germany
Croatia
Portugal
Cyprus
EU 27
Italy
Bulgaria
Austria
Denmark
Belgium
Poland
Romania
Sweden
Spain
Czech Rep.
0
Ireland
%/year
0
27
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Economic and energy context
Energy consumption trends
Energy efficiency trends
Energy intensity trends
Cross-country comparison of energy
intensities
After adjustment for differences in prices (at purchasing power parities, ppp),
differences in final energy intensities are narrowed for central European
countries or southern countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Malta)
Final energy intensities (2010)*
400
350
300
EU = 100
250
200
150
100
50
actual
* at normal climate
Bulgaria
Romania
Latvia
Slovakia
Estonia
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Lithuania
Poland
Croatia
Slovenia
Finland
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Portugal
Belgium
Spain
Austria
Netherlands
Italy
Sweden
Malta
France
Germany
Norway
Greece
Ireland
Denmark
UK
0
at ppp
29
After adjustment for differences in prices (at purchasing power parities, ppp),
differences in final energy intensities are narrowed for central European
countries or southern countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Malta)
Final energy intensities adjusted at ppp and at EU average structure and climate
(2010)*
Malta
Lithuania
Greece
Germany
UK
Spain
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Denmark
Italy
Ireland
Slovenia
Austria
Czech Rep.
Croatia
Slovakia
France
Cyprus
Romania
Hungary
Belgium
Bulgaria
Sweden
Estonia
Latvia
Luxembourg
Finland
Norway
EU= 100
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
30