Download Simple macro-economic indicators : energy intensities

Training Seminar
Evaluation of energy efficiency trends and potentials
Grenoble, 30 January – 10 February 2006
Simple macro-economic indicators :
energy intensities
Bruno Lapillonne
Energy intensities: definition
•Ratios of energy consumption to GDP or value added
•Measured in energy units per monetary unit at constant prices:
toe / 95 ( 95: at 1995 constant national prices converted in )
•Provide an assessment of how much energy intensive is an
economy
•Variation over time indicate trends in “overall economic
efficiency”or “energy productivity”
•Same way electricity intensities (kWh/ )or carbon intensities
(CO2/ )
Macro-economic data used for energy intensities
(national currency at constant market prices )
GDP = sum of VA of :
agriculture and fishing activities
industry (Section C + D + E + F)
service sector
indirect taxe (about 10%)
GDP expenditure = private consumption of households (about 60-70%
of GDP) + gross investment + government consumption + import export
Energy intensities: general trends
-Usually increase over time in countries in development
Ł The economy is more and more “energy intensive”
(industrialisation, diffusion of household appliance and cars,
increase welfare…): the energy consumption increases more
rapidly than the GDP
-Decreasing trends in most developed OECD countries
Ł The economies are less and less “energy intensive”
(“tertiarisation”, saturation in the diffusion of household appliance
and cars, …)
Primary versus final energy intensity: correspond to
two different level of measurement of the energy
consumption
-Primary energy consumption: total consumption of coal, oil, gas ,
primary electricity, electricity trade balance and renewable
- Final energy consumption: total consumption of final consumers:
industry (excluding energy industries) ,transport, households, services &
agriculture
Ł for energy efficiency indicators, non energy uses are
excluded from final energy consumption
-Difference primary / final: consumption and losses in energy
transformations (especially electricity sector) and non energy uses
Primary versus final energy intensity: correspond to
two different level of measurement of the energy
consumption
-Primary energy intensity : measure trend in the overall productivity
of energy in a counrty
- Final energy intensity: : measure trend in the energy productivity of
final consumers only, ie excluding energy industries (power sector) and
non energy uses
Primary versus final energy intensities
-As a long term trend ,primary intensity increase faster or
decrease slower than final intensity due to increase losses in
energy transformations , …. as economies are more and
more electricity intensive, which increase transformations
losses each time electricity is not produced from hydro
Final / primary consumption
Energy balance - Sweden (1999)
PRIMARY PRODUCTION
Imports
Exports
Marine bunkers
Stock variations
PRIMARY CONSUMPTION
Refineries
Power plants
CHP plants
Heat plants
Own use
Distribution losses
FINAL CONSUMPTION
industry
transport
households, services
households
non energy uses
Coal
0,2
2,2
0,1
2,5
Crude
Oil
Oil Products
21
-0,5
0,6
0,6
Hydro
6,2
Wood
waste
8,6
20,5
-20,5
5,9
-9,5
-1,5
0,9
-4,2
21,6
-0,2
-0,1
0
-0,6
-0,3
-2
14,5
2,6
7,9
2,9
1,1
1,1
0,4
0,3
5,3
4,4
0,1
0,1
0,9
-0,7
-0,1
-1,1
Gas Nuclear
19,1
0,7
0,7
Elec.
Heat
0,4
0,7
-1,4
19,1
6,2
-19,1
-6,2
8,6
-2,5
-0,8
-0,7
12,5
0,9
-1
-0,9
10,8
4,6
0,2
6
3,6
0,4
2,1
1,5
0
-0,2
3,8
0,3
3,5
1,2
Total
34,5
30,5
-11,4
-1,5
1
53,1
1,1
-13,5
-0,4
0,3
-4,1
-1,1
35,4
12,8
8,1
13,4
6
1,1
Primary and final energy intensities
-However on recent years and some EU countries reverse
trends are observed due to improved efficiency of power
plants (gas combined cycle,cogeneration)
-Year to year variation depend on the share of hydro in
power generation as there is no loss for hydro compared to
60-70% losses for thermal plant and 67% for nuclear
Since 1990, the energy demand has increased twice less
rapidly than the economic activity on average in the EU-15
Variation of energy intensities in the UE-15 between 1990 et
2002
3%
2%
Primary energy intensity decreases
generally more rapidly than the
final energy intensity due to
efficiency gains in the electricity
generation.
1%
%/an
Drop around 1%/an of primary
and final energy intensities in the
UE-15; Variable decrease among
countries except Spain and
Portugal
0%
-1%
-2%
… except in some countries such as
France, where the decrease is
larger at final level (nuclear effect)
-3%
U
Lu
xe
m
bo
ur
g
ni
t e Irl
an
d
ki
ng d
D do m
en
m
a
Sw rk
ed
G en
e
N rm
et an
he y
rla
nd
U s
E1
Fr 5
an
Be ce
lg
iu
G m
re
ec
e
Ita
Au ly
st
r
Fi ia
nl
an
d
Sp
a
Po in
rt u
ga
l
-4%
primary intensity
final intensity
Decrease of primary and final energy intensities in
CEEC’s: 1992/2000
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Faster decrease for primary intensity
Increase of hydro in Slovenia and Latvia
decrease of nuclear in Lithuania; efficiency
improvement of thermal generation for others
Sl
ov
a
Bu kia
l
C gar
ze
ch ia
R
e
Es p
to
H nia
un
ga
r
La y
t
Li via
tu
an
Po ia
l
R and
om
a
Sl nia
ov
en
ia
%
Increase of nuclear in
Bulgaria and Slovakia
Lower
Reduction
For primary
primary
final
Ratio final/ primary energy intensities (%)
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
1991
2003
EU
15
UK
Ne
th
er
la
nd
s
Ita
ly
Fr
an
ce
Sp
ai
n
G
er
m
an
y
De
nm
ar
k
40
Electricity intensities (electricity consumption
/GDP) : increase rapidly in all countries
kWh/1000$95
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
an
Fr
e
dg
o
b
m
Ca
ce
in
rk
u
B
o
as
F
a
1980
al
M
1990
i
au
M
an
ri t
ie
r
ge
i
N
2000
Elasticity of energy consumption to GDP
- Elasticity measures the relative variation of the consumption
in relation to the GDP
- Over a period, can be approximated by the ratio of annual
growth rate of the consumption over average GDP annual
growth rate
-If consumption grows by 2%/ year and GDP by 5% /year
between 1990 and 2000
elasticity= 2/5= 0.4 over period
1990-2000
Elasticity of energy consumption to GDP and
intensity to GDP
- Elasticity measures relation consumption GDP over a period
- Intensity calculated for specific years
- Intensity in monetary units ; elasticity without unit:
- Elasticity more useful for comparison of trends over time
and by country
- Intensity useful for measuring levels
Intensity increase
élasticity > 1
Intensity decrease
élasticity < 1
Intensity stable
élasticity= 1
Interpretation of indicators trends : role of
prices
• Need to calculate average price by sector in real terms
• Average : weighted average of the price of each type of energy (
weighted by the share of each energy in the consumption of the
sector)
• Real Ł at constant prices (= current prices divided by the GDP
deflator
•or consumer price index)
Average real price per sector
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
0
Motor fuels (average)
Industry (average)
Households( average)
Elasticity of demand to price
- Elasticity: measure the relative variation of demand to price
variation
- Equal the relative demand variation to the relative price
variation
- I the price increases by 10% and the demand is rdeuced by 3%
over one year
elasticity = - 3/10= - 0.3
Cross country- comparisons of energy intensities
adjustments to purchasing power parities ?
Adjustment to price differences with Purchasing Power
Parities (PPP)
•Conversion of national currencies in € with exchange rates does not reflect
the fact that in accession countries consumer prices are on average much lower
than in the EU
Ł by a factor 2 on average
Ł in a range of 1.5 for Slovenia to about 3 for Bulgaria or Romania
•Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) account for price differences Ł they
improve the comparison of economic indicators, such as energy intensities
•When converting national currencies in € at PPP
Ł the GDP increases by a factor 1.5 for Slovenia or 3 for Bulgaria or Romania
Ł and the energy intensity decreases by the same factor
.
GDP per capita: actual and at purchasing Power
Parities (1000 $/capita) (2002))
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
EU-15
GDP per capita
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Turkey
GDP at purchasing power parity per capita
Why using Purchasing Power Parities for cross country
comparisons of energy performance
•Let us take 3 factories producing cars : one in the EU , one in Slovenia
and one in Romania or Bulgaria, with the same technical performance, ie
the same energy input by car produced (in toe or GJ per car)
•The value added of each car is mainly made from salaries (capital costs
and profits also included) , whose relative level across countries are mainly
influenced by the average difference in the cost of living (1.5 times
lower for Slovenia and and 3 times lower for Bulgaria and Romania)
Ł With the same technical performance, the energy used per unit of
value added (« energy intensity » for the car industry will be 1.5 and 3
times higher than in the EU in Slovenia and Romania/ Bulgaria
respectively with exchange rates but the same at PPP
Primary energy intensities (2001)
Purchasing power parities narrow the differences across countries
1,6
1,4
1,2
koe/
1
Range :
factor 8
0,8
0,6
Range :
factor 2.4
0,4
0,2
E
U
B
ul
ga
C
ze ria
ch
R
ep
E
st
o
ni
a
H
un
ga
ry
La
tv
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Li
th
ua
ni
a
P
ol
an
d
R
om
an
ia
S
lo
va
ki
a
S
lo
ve
ni
a
0
at exchange rate
at purchasing power parities (ppp)
Purchasing Power Parities
Use of PPP increases GDP and, thus, decreases energy intensity
of countries with low cost of living ( usually countries with low
incomes); conversely intensity of rich countries increases
Ł PPP narrows differences between countries.
PPP affects the ranking of intensities among countries,…
but does not change the trends
Energy intensities trends: exchange rate
versus at purchasing power parities
PPP affects the ranking of intensities among countries,…
but does not change the trends
0 ,2 5
0 ,2
0 ,1 5
0 ,1
0 ,0 5
0
1 980
1 981
1 982
1 983
Portugal PPP
1 984
1 985
1 986
1 987
Japon PPP
1 988
1 989
1 990
1 991
1 992
1 993
1 994
Portugal Exch. Rate
1 995
1 996
1 997
1 998
1 999
Japon Exch. Rate
Ranking of primary intensities at world level and
variation
-1.4 %
0 %
-0.9 %
-2.4 %
-6.2 %
-0.3 %
-0.5 %
-1.7 %
+ 1.2 %
+ 0.2 %
-0.4 %
+0.7 %
-1.1 %
Intenisté primaire en in kep/$95ppa
Source: Enerdata
Grandes disparités des niveaux d’intensités et des tendances au niveau
mondial. La Chine explique 1/4 de la réduction mondiale
kWh/1000$ppa
Electricity intensities : at exchange rates
versus ppp (2000)
400
350
300
Rapprochement des niveaux en ppa
250
200
150
100
50
0
an
Fr
e
dg
o
b
m
Ca
ce
in
rk
u
B
o
as
F
a
$95
al
M
i
au
M
an
ri t
ie
r
ge
i
N
$ppa95
Comparisons of primary and final energy intensities :
other adjustements
Cross country- comparisons of energy efficiency
performance : what other adjustments ?
Adjustments for differences in :
•Transformation losses (primary fuel/technology mix)
•Climate
•Economic and industrial activities
Second adjustment: to average EU primary fuel mix
For some countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania), consumption for transformation
very high Ł after adjustment to same primary fuel mix, range down to 1. 9 for primary intensities
: to be adjusted now for climatic differences and economic structures
250
150
100
50
actual
at EU transformation mix
E
U
P
ol
an
d
R
om
an
ia
S
lo
va
ki
a
S
lo
ve
ni
a
ua
ni
a
Li
th
La
tv
ia
y
un
ga
r
H
ni
a
E
st
o
ep
R
ze
ch
C
ul
ga
r
ia
0
B
EU = 100
200
Third adjustment : space heating use to same
climate (EU 15 average) : case of households
Adjustment reduces the unit consumption in countries colder than the EU average,
in2relation to the degree-days difference
1,8
toe/dwelling
1,6
1,4
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
actual
EU
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Rep
0
Bulgaria
0,2
scaled to EU climate
Same for services
Final energy intensities adjusted to same climate (EU15
average) (at purchasing power parities)
200
180
160
EU = 100
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
d
ia
ia
ia
ia
p
ia
ry
ia
ia
ar
ak
an
en
la n ma n
Re sto n nga La tv
g
u
v
l
v
o
h
o
h
o
P
E
Hu
Bu ze c
Sl
Ro
Sl
Lit
C
at ppp
at ppp and EU climate
Adjustment important for Baltic countries: their cold climate explain
an intensity of about 15% higher: maximum range down to 1.8
EU
Fourth and last adjustment to same economic and
industrial structures
Differences in final energy intensity level for come from:
•different industry and economic structures (% of GDP by branch)
•different level of intensities of branches
To leave out difference in economic structures calculation of a fictive
intensity with the actual sectoral intensities of each country and the same
industry and economic structures as the EU average ( GDP structure adjustment
made for services, agriculture, mining, construction ,and main manufacturing branches)
Primary energy intensities : all adjustments
After all adjustments, primary intensities are for most countries about 50% higher than
the EU average and the maximum range decreases from 2.4 to 1.8
250
150
100
at ppp
EU
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Estonia
0
Czech Rep
50
Bulgaria
EU=100
200
at ppp and at EU climate ,structure & primary fuel mix