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Panel Discussion on the ICP • • • • Organizer— Alan Heston Moderator—Fred Vogel Speaker—Yuri Dikhanov Panel – – – – – – – Kim Zieschang Bart Van Ark Prasada Rao Robert Lipsey Peter Hill Erwin Diewert Alan Heston Panel Discussion--overview Heston—Opening comments Vogel--Overview Dikhanov—Methodology review Vogel—Lessons learned, future analysis Panel—Brief presentation by panel members All—Open discussion Dikhanov & Vogel—Respond to discussion Heston—Closing comments Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures. Overview-Major outcomes Fred Vogel International Comparison Program Panel Discussion--overview Heston—Opening comments Vogel--Overview Dikhanov—Methodology review Vogel—Lessons learned, future analysis Panel—Brief presentation by panel members All—Open discussion Dikhanov & Vogel—Respond to discussion Heston—Closing comments The ICP Governance ICP under auspices of the UN Statistical Commission ICP Executive Board Global Office World Bank Technical Advisory Group Africa Asia West Asia LAC CIS (48 countries) (23 countries) 11 Countries (10 countries) (10 countries) Ring 18 Countries Eurostat/ OECD (46 countries) 1000 50 34 108 776 50 34 108 740 Ring 198 20 104 22 91 75 47 16 79 7 45 36 W. Asia 223 19 78 17 85 112 65 19 70 7 25 56 Latin America 356 41 128 21 95 144 55 19 49 7 51 34 OECD Eurostat Total consumption General Government Construction Equipment CIS Food and non - alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing and utilities Furnishing and household equipment Health Transportation Communication Recreation and Culture Education Restaurants* Misc. .goods and services Asia Category Africa Scope and Coverage of Data Collection Number of products/specifications 422 72 319 64 460 244 365 81 336 5 117 136 147 8 136 18 77 51 33 8 54 10 14 22 353 21 162 12 83 69 29 12 59 11 20 31 281 30 132 35 124 162 96 28 96 7 60 44 578 50 34 108 862 50 34 108 1095 50 34 108 2621 The size of the world economy Xrates, WDI, New benchmark ICP 2005 GDP @PPP Previous 2005 GDP @PPP GDP @ Market exchange rates World---146 countries 54,975 59,712 44,306 High income: OECD 31,422 31,726 33,342 964 1,264 486 10,971 16,367 4,221 CIS 2,269 2,171 970 South America* 2,698 2,911 1,411 West Asia 1,158 932 588 GDP 2005 ($ billions) Africa* Asia and Pacific* * Excludes exporting countries. Note: Regional totals do not include all ICP participants. Reasons new PPPs differ from previous data based on extrapolations from earlier benchmarks • More countries included in the 2005 ICP Round • • • • • – China first time — India first time since 1985 – More African countries. New methodology for housing, government, linking regions Data quality improved due to better statistical capacity of countries. Products priced differed from 1993 to 2005 ICP Rounds. System of National Account (SNA) changed from SNA 68 to SNA 93 in many countries. Previously extrapolated data were at GDP level, while new PPPs are computed at individual product/basic heading level. Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures. Lessons learned Analysis needed Fred Vogel International Comparison Program Lesson Learned-Analysis Needed • National accounts need improving— start earlier on that effort • Are 155 basic headings needed? • Can countries do what is asked for details such as (NPISH), own consumption, narcotics----? Lessons learned--Questions • There is a limit to what countries can do at one time—construction, equipment, gov’t in 2006 • Can number of products be reduced? • Can a subset of “influential” products be identified? • Can more flexibility i.e. coding of price determining characteristics be implemented? Lessons Learned- Analysis needed • ICP and Eurostat-OECD comparisons need to be more similar – Use of SPDs – Harmonize government, equipment, (const?) • Determine methodology for productivity adjustments, housing, and employ in all regions. • Critically review construction • Representativity—a representative product is representative of the economy and has a representative price (???) can it be used? – Additional coding in SPD/PS be used instead? Lessons Learned- Analysis Needed • Ring—process needs to be evaluated • Can a core ring list be subset of regional lists? – Can more price determining characteristics be obtained during data collection of regional data? – Can these be used to identify core products to become the ring list? – Can/should the Eurostat-OECD also use the SPD/PS? • Can/should equipment, construction, government be harmonized between the ICP and Eurostat-OECD-CIS? Major Events December 17, 2007 Preliminary results for GDP, Consumption, Government, and Investment February 26, 2008—web based report Final data Tables for 15 categories of the GDP May 2008: The ICP final report in printed form and results in data base format downloadable into excel files Summary of major findings Technical notes describing methodology Annexes with history of the ICP, governance, additional technical material about combining regions, glossary, and references Finalize ICP Handbook Finalize data access procedures www.worldbank.org/data/icp More information on the International Comparison Program can be found on the ICP website: www.worldbank.org/data/ICP