Download Media Release

News Release - Medicine
Embargoed until Friday 23rd January 01:00 GMT / Thursday 22nd 20:00
EST
What to do in a flu epidemic? Stay at home and watch TV
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) include actions individuals can take to
reduce disease spread, such as hand washing and minimizing contact with sick
people. These can play a key role in reducing the spread of infectious diseases
such as influenza, according to research published in the open access journal
BMC Infectious Diseases.
Social distancing, staying indoors and avoiding social activity, is an important
NPI in the event of an epidemic, especially when a vaccine is unavailable or
limited. Whether privately initiated or policy directed, NPIs calling for the closure
of schools and entertainment venues, and cancelling public events are becoming
more relevant in control strategies.
”The swine flu outbreak that hit Mexico City in April 2009 could have been
worse, but spread of the virus was reduced by people’s behavioral response of
distancing themselves from each other,” says University of California, Davis
economist Michael Springborn, lead author of the study. The study drew on the
combined disciplinary strengths of epidemiology and economics to create a new
model that incorporates behavioral responses into existing models of disease
spread.
Following confirmation of a novel strain of A/H1N1 influenza virus (swine flu), on
24 April 2009 the Mexican federal government closed public schools in Mexico
City and ‘social distancing’ measures were put in place. Researchers from
University of California, Davis, Arizona State University, Georgia State
University, and Yale University used home television viewing in Central Mexico
as an indicator of behavioral response during the pandemic.
Television ratings data are consistently and widely available and “highly
correlated with time spent in the home,” says Springborn. These data provide a
good indicator for the level of social interaction, because time spent watching
television generally increases with time spent at home. When people are home,
they are limiting the number of contacts they make.
“We found that the behavioral response to the outbreak was initially strong but
waned sooner than expected,” says Springborn. This dynamic is interpreted as a
“rebound effect”. At the onset of a flu outbreak, the public responds strongly to
the directed control policies. After a prolonged period of staying indoors people
began to spend less time in the confines of their homes.
Springborn explains “This suggests that efforts to utilize social distancing to
mitigate disease spread may have a limited window of efficacy, i.e. before pent
up-demand for activities outside the home takes precedence.” There is historical
evidence for this behavior. Observations from the 1918 influenza pandemic in
Australia showed that when the perceived risk decreased the public reverted
back to normal behavior.
“Our study reinforces the view that capturing behavioral changes that amplify or
blunt the transmission rate is key to improve our ability to make predictions
about the impact of epidemics,” says co-author Gerardo Chowell, who is a newly
appointed faculty member in the School of Public Health at Georgia State
University.
Certain age groups and socio-economic groups responded more strongly than
others. The researchers found that the increase in TV watching for children and
wealthier groups was more pronounced. The authors speculate that those from
poorer backgrounds may face greater difficulty in taking self-protective actions
like social distancing, e.g. due to less flexibility with working hours. These
differences between demographic groups could have public health policy
implications for directing outbreak response assistance to those with lower
financial means or increasing access to paid sick-leave for low-wage workers.
Behavioral responses clearly affect the course of the disease. “This affects public
health authorities tasked with planning for epidemics,” says Springborn. This has
implications for management advice, including the allocation of resources
between pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Within the set of NPIs, the findings provide insight for selection of the duration
and strength of major interventions (closing of businesses and cancelling public
events) versus other forms of assistance, such as distributing masks.
Social distancing policies may be effective against pandemic
influenza. However, people don’t need to wait. It is important to remember that
other behaviors, such as washing hands and wearing facemasks, could
contribute and should be routine in order to reduce transmission.
-ENDSMedia Contact
Alanna Orpen
PR Assistant
BioMed Central
T: +44 (0)20 3192 2054
E: [email protected]
1. Research article
Accounting for Behavioral Responses during a Flu Epidemic Using Home Television
Viewing
Michael R Springborn, Gerardo Chowell, Matthew MacLachlan and Eli Fenichel
BMC Infectious Diseases 15:21
After embargo, article available at journal website here:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-014-0691-0
Please name the journal in any story you write. If you are writing for the web, please
link to the article. All articles are available free of charge, according to BioMed Central's
open access policy.
2. BMC Infectious Diseases is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers
articles on all aspects of the prevention, diagnosis and management of infectious and
sexually transmitted diseases in humans, as well as related molecular genetics,
pathophysiology, and epidemiology.
It is part of the BMC series which publishes subject-specific journals focused on the
needs of individual research communities across all areas of biology and medicine.
We offer an efficient, fair and friendly peer review service, and are committed to
publishing all sound science, provided that there is some advance in knowledge
presented by the work.
3. BioMed Central is an STM (Science, Technology and Medicine) publisher which has
pioneered the open access publishing model. All peer-reviewed research articles
published by BioMed Central are made immediately and freely accessible online, and are
licensed to allow redistribution and reuse. BioMed Central is part of Springer
Science+Business Media, a leading global publisher in the STM sector.
www.biomedcentral.com