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Epidemiological Transition Models
Population Control
Epidemiological Transition Model
• ETM-shows distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic
transition model
• Stage 1
– Epidemics/Pandemics: Infectious and parasitic
diseases, famine
– Ex: Black Plague (25 million Europeans died)
• Stage 2
– Receding epidemic (affects high proportion of
population, but in isolation)
– Ex: Cholera (contaminated water supply)
Epidemiological Transition Model
• Stage 3
– Degenerative and human-created disease
– Ex: Cardiovascular disease and Cancer
• Stage 4
– Delayed degenerative diseases
– Ex: Alzheimer's, Diabetes
• Stage 5?
– Reemerging infectious and
parasitic disease
– Ex: Malaria, TB, AIDS
AIDS/HIV+
• 2010 world distribution:
– 23 million in Sub-Saharan Africa
– 5+ million in Asia (India, China, SE Asia)
– 2 million in Latin America (Caribbean-Haiti)
• Sub-Saharan Africa
– 70% of HIV cases
– Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia, South Africa,
Kenya
– Increase death rates
– Declining life expectancy
How do Governments Affect
Population Change?
• Many governments institute policies designed to influence the overall
growth rate or ethnic ratios within the population.
These policies fall into three groups:
1. Expansive
2. Eugenic
3. Restrictive
Expansive Population Policies
• Encourage families to have more children
• Communist Societies
– Soviet Union
– China – Mao Zedong
• European countries: NOW
– Tax incentives
– Sweden
• Cash payments, tax incentives, job leave, work hour
flexibility lasting up to 8 years after birth
• Short baby boom, but led to issues
Eugenic Population Policies
• Favoring one racial or cultural sector of the
population over the others
– Tax discrimination, allocation of resources,
favoritism
• Examples
– Nazi Germany
– Japan?
– USA?
Restrictive Population Policies
• Reducing the rate of natural increase
through a range of means
– China: “One-child” policy: Income bonuses, Better
health care benefits, Better retirement pensions,
Priority in housing
Solutions to Population Growth
• Empowerment of Women
– $ for contraception & education
– Changing cultural norms to value girls
• Diffusion of Birth Control Policies
– Educating men
w/ responsibility
for birth control
– Sterilization
Solutions to Population Growth
• Redistribution of wealth - improve
standard of living for poor so that
children aren’t as necessary
– Improving farming techniques in poor
areas
– Starvation, Malnourishment
Solutions to Population Growth
• Medical technology –
costs of maintaining
vulnerable populations
(old & young)
• Addressing government policies to deal
with their growing populations
Something to think about…
• Is population control funded by MDCs ethical in
LDCs?
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Population control v. culture
Birth control?
Sterilization?
Abortion?
Sex determination?
Incentives: Money, food, clothing?
• Is population control funded by MDCs needed to
keep mass amounts of people in the LDCs out of
poverty?