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Global learning for local solutions:
the southern Benguela component.
Presented at the 2nd National Conference on Global Change
2014, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, South Africa
Kevern Cochrane1, James Howard2,
Kelly Ortega Cisneros1 and Warwick
Sauer1
1 DIFS,
Rhodes University
2 MA-RE, University of Cape Town
Global Hotspots of Climate Change:
Top 10% rate of change 1950-1999 (Hobday&Pecl 2014 )
Annual and decadal averaged SST for
the southern Benguela (RCP8.5 scenario)
Courtesy E. Popova,
National
Oceanography
Centre,
Southampton
The GULLS Response
Goal: Holistic approach involving 8 countries to explore
options to reduce coastal vulnerability for an improved
future for fisheries communities in five southern
hemisphere hotspot regions: Brazil, India, the
Mozambique Channel, southern Benguela (South
Africa) and South East Australia).
Objectives:
• Create predictive systems to inform decision makers
about expected consequences of coastal changes;
• Develop (science and consultation) alternative
adaptation options and their social-ecological
implications
4 |
Southern Benguela fisheries sector: results of Preliminary
Assessments of Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability
(Hampton, 2011 and BCC/FAO, 2014)
• Small-scale/artisanal fishery for W.Coast rock lobster
and linefish:
– Heavy dependence on fishery of large number of people;
– Very limited ability to adapt;
– Resources already under heavy pressure from fishing.
• Small pelagics fishery (anchovy + sardine):
– High value fishery with low profit margins;
– Sensitivity to environment (inter-annual variability in
abundance, shifts in distribution)
Small-scale fisheries: community to national.
Fishing zones and areas for the West Coast
rock lobster fishery
From Cockcroft et al. AJMS
2008
Shifts in Distribution: Typical Catch Localities of
Sardine and Anchovy
(after Cochrane et al. 2004)
Annual, sardine-directed catch (1987-2012) to
the west and east (black of Cape Agulhas
indicated (van der Lingen and van der Westhuizen, 2013).
Elements of a Vulnerability Assessment
(based on IPCC framework)
Physico-ecological
Ecological
Sensitivity/
Resilience
Ecological
Exposure
Potential
Ecological
Impacts
Ecological
Vulnerability
Socio-economic
Social
Exposure
Socioeconomic
Sensitivity
Potential
Socioeconomic
Impacts
Adaptive
Capacity
Social Ecological
Vulnerability
Elements of Integrated Vulnerability
Assessment (after Mills et al. 2009)
- Dependence on
resources
- Poverty
- General Capacity
- Infra-structure
- Climate
change/variability
- Competition other
users
- Impacts from other
sectors
People &
Livelihoods
External
Drivers
- Government capacity
- Access rights
- - Co-management
- Knowledge base
Governance - - Control and
surveillance
Ecosystems
- Status of stocks;
- Predator-prey
relationships
-Impacts on ecosystem
- Conservation issues
Some challenges for small-scale sector
Natural Systems
People and
Livelihoods
External Drivers
Governance
Over-exploited
resources (rock
lobster + some
linefish)
High local
dependence: 34
communities (W+S
coasts), 2373 informal
fishers1
Climate change and
variability
-Limited capacity at all
levels.
- Limited knowledge
of social and
economic conditions.
Most targeted species
widely distributed,
shared with others
Widespread poverty,
Illegal fishing,
limited access health +
education ,etc
- Excess capacity
- Confusion and
conflict over access
rights
Conflicts in relation to
some protected areas
Limited alternative
opportunities
Competition/ conflicts
with recreational ,
commercial fisheries,
poachers
--Absence comanagement +
challenges scaling-up
-Uneven power
relations
Limited capacity for
management and
business
establishment
Coastal zone
development,
recreation and
tourism
Limited interaction
between Government
depts: DEA and DAFF
Some challenges for small pelagic fishery
Natural Systems
People and
Livelihoods*
External Drivers
Governance
High natural variability Important livelihoods:
109 rights holders,
5204 employees: ave
daily wage R627.69
Climate change and
variability
Generally effective but
vulnerable because of
weaknesses in DAFF
(e.g. research vessel)
Distribution shifts
Distributional shifts
create social and
economic problems,
especially for local
workers
International
competition for
markets
Limited knowledge of
social and economic
conditions and
performance.
Competition for
resources with some
predator species of
conservation concern
Small rights holders:
not economically
viable + limited
business capacity
Future competition
offshore oil, gas and
mining?
Need to address
spatial dynamics (W/S
distribution)
-Uneven power
relations
-Insufficient
participation small
rights holders
GULLS: the way ahead:
• Detailed vulnerability assessments to test and
refine preliminary results;
• Use best available methods to forecast future
climate trends and their impacts;
• Collaborative development future adaptation
pathways and mitigation measures with
stakeholders at all levels;
• Inform and lobby authorities and stakeholders on
importance of addressing challenges to sectors;
• Greater attention to social and economic issues in
strategic planning and tactical management
• Greater emphasis on increasing ecological
resilience of marine ecosystem
Immediate Interventions Required
• Engage with key stakeholders on current and
future challenges in the small scale fisheries
sector and the fishery for small pelagics
• Encourage and support DAFF in implementation
of small-scale fisheries policies, taking into
account a changing climate
• Encourage and support the building of capacity
both in Govt and in the industrial sector to
successfully transform our fisheries sector
Acknowledgement
GULLS falls within the Belmont Forum and G8
Research Councils Initiative on Multilateral
Research Funding. The National Research
Foundation is thanked for providing the funding
for the South African component of the Project.
A Belmont
Coastal
Vulnerability
Theme Project
Global learning for local solutions: Reducing
vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal
communities (GULLS)
References
•
•
•
•
•
•
BCC and FAO. 2014. : Enhancing Climate Change resilience in the Benguela
Current Fisheries System. Final project document submitted to GEF:
GCP/RAF/480/LDF and GCP/RAF/480/SCF
Hampton, I. 2012. Vulnerability to climate change of the Benguela Current
Large Marine Ecosystem and the human livelihoods dependent on it. FAO
Fisheries and Aquaculture Proceedings 27. Hara, M. et al. 2014. Fragmented
participation in management of the fishery for small pelagic fish in South
Africa – inclusion of small-rights holders is a complex matter. Afr.J.mar.Sci
Hobday and Pecl. 2014. Identification of global marine hotspots: sentinels for
change and vanguards for adaptation action. Rev Fish Biol Fisheries
Mills, D. et al. 2009. Vulnerability in African small-scale fishing communities. J.
Int.Dev.
Sowman et al. 2011. Human dimensions of small-scale fisheries in the BCLME
region: An overview. Report to BCC and FAO.
Van der Lingen, C. and van der Westhuizen, J.J. 2013. Spatial distribution of
directed sardine catches around South Africa, 1987-2012.
FISHERIES/2013/OCT/SWG-PEL/33. DAFF Working Group Report.