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Global learning for local solutions: the southern Benguela component. Presented at the 2nd National Conference on Global Change 2014, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, South Africa Kevern Cochrane1, James Howard2, Kelly Ortega Cisneros1 and Warwick Sauer1 1 DIFS, Rhodes University 2 MA-RE, University of Cape Town Global Hotspots of Climate Change: Top 10% rate of change 1950-1999 (Hobday&Pecl 2014 ) Annual and decadal averaged SST for the southern Benguela (RCP8.5 scenario) Courtesy E. Popova, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton The GULLS Response Goal: Holistic approach involving 8 countries to explore options to reduce coastal vulnerability for an improved future for fisheries communities in five southern hemisphere hotspot regions: Brazil, India, the Mozambique Channel, southern Benguela (South Africa) and South East Australia). Objectives: • Create predictive systems to inform decision makers about expected consequences of coastal changes; • Develop (science and consultation) alternative adaptation options and their social-ecological implications 4 | Southern Benguela fisheries sector: results of Preliminary Assessments of Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability (Hampton, 2011 and BCC/FAO, 2014) • Small-scale/artisanal fishery for W.Coast rock lobster and linefish: – Heavy dependence on fishery of large number of people; – Very limited ability to adapt; – Resources already under heavy pressure from fishing. • Small pelagics fishery (anchovy + sardine): – High value fishery with low profit margins; – Sensitivity to environment (inter-annual variability in abundance, shifts in distribution) Small-scale fisheries: community to national. Fishing zones and areas for the West Coast rock lobster fishery From Cockcroft et al. AJMS 2008 Shifts in Distribution: Typical Catch Localities of Sardine and Anchovy (after Cochrane et al. 2004) Annual, sardine-directed catch (1987-2012) to the west and east (black of Cape Agulhas indicated (van der Lingen and van der Westhuizen, 2013). Elements of a Vulnerability Assessment (based on IPCC framework) Physico-ecological Ecological Sensitivity/ Resilience Ecological Exposure Potential Ecological Impacts Ecological Vulnerability Socio-economic Social Exposure Socioeconomic Sensitivity Potential Socioeconomic Impacts Adaptive Capacity Social Ecological Vulnerability Elements of Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (after Mills et al. 2009) - Dependence on resources - Poverty - General Capacity - Infra-structure - Climate change/variability - Competition other users - Impacts from other sectors People & Livelihoods External Drivers - Government capacity - Access rights - - Co-management - Knowledge base Governance - - Control and surveillance Ecosystems - Status of stocks; - Predator-prey relationships -Impacts on ecosystem - Conservation issues Some challenges for small-scale sector Natural Systems People and Livelihoods External Drivers Governance Over-exploited resources (rock lobster + some linefish) High local dependence: 34 communities (W+S coasts), 2373 informal fishers1 Climate change and variability -Limited capacity at all levels. - Limited knowledge of social and economic conditions. Most targeted species widely distributed, shared with others Widespread poverty, Illegal fishing, limited access health + education ,etc - Excess capacity - Confusion and conflict over access rights Conflicts in relation to some protected areas Limited alternative opportunities Competition/ conflicts with recreational , commercial fisheries, poachers --Absence comanagement + challenges scaling-up -Uneven power relations Limited capacity for management and business establishment Coastal zone development, recreation and tourism Limited interaction between Government depts: DEA and DAFF Some challenges for small pelagic fishery Natural Systems People and Livelihoods* External Drivers Governance High natural variability Important livelihoods: 109 rights holders, 5204 employees: ave daily wage R627.69 Climate change and variability Generally effective but vulnerable because of weaknesses in DAFF (e.g. research vessel) Distribution shifts Distributional shifts create social and economic problems, especially for local workers International competition for markets Limited knowledge of social and economic conditions and performance. Competition for resources with some predator species of conservation concern Small rights holders: not economically viable + limited business capacity Future competition offshore oil, gas and mining? Need to address spatial dynamics (W/S distribution) -Uneven power relations -Insufficient participation small rights holders GULLS: the way ahead: • Detailed vulnerability assessments to test and refine preliminary results; • Use best available methods to forecast future climate trends and their impacts; • Collaborative development future adaptation pathways and mitigation measures with stakeholders at all levels; • Inform and lobby authorities and stakeholders on importance of addressing challenges to sectors; • Greater attention to social and economic issues in strategic planning and tactical management • Greater emphasis on increasing ecological resilience of marine ecosystem Immediate Interventions Required • Engage with key stakeholders on current and future challenges in the small scale fisheries sector and the fishery for small pelagics • Encourage and support DAFF in implementation of small-scale fisheries policies, taking into account a changing climate • Encourage and support the building of capacity both in Govt and in the industrial sector to successfully transform our fisheries sector Acknowledgement GULLS falls within the Belmont Forum and G8 Research Councils Initiative on Multilateral Research Funding. The National Research Foundation is thanked for providing the funding for the South African component of the Project. A Belmont Coastal Vulnerability Theme Project Global learning for local solutions: Reducing vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal communities (GULLS) References • • • • • • BCC and FAO. 2014. : Enhancing Climate Change resilience in the Benguela Current Fisheries System. Final project document submitted to GEF: GCP/RAF/480/LDF and GCP/RAF/480/SCF Hampton, I. 2012. Vulnerability to climate change of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem and the human livelihoods dependent on it. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Proceedings 27. Hara, M. et al. 2014. Fragmented participation in management of the fishery for small pelagic fish in South Africa – inclusion of small-rights holders is a complex matter. Afr.J.mar.Sci Hobday and Pecl. 2014. Identification of global marine hotspots: sentinels for change and vanguards for adaptation action. Rev Fish Biol Fisheries Mills, D. et al. 2009. Vulnerability in African small-scale fishing communities. J. Int.Dev. Sowman et al. 2011. Human dimensions of small-scale fisheries in the BCLME region: An overview. Report to BCC and FAO. Van der Lingen, C. and van der Westhuizen, J.J. 2013. Spatial distribution of directed sardine catches around South Africa, 1987-2012. FISHERIES/2013/OCT/SWG-PEL/33. DAFF Working Group Report.