Download Jennifer Boldt, Fisheries and Oceans Canada

The role of climate and ocean drivers on fish
productivity
Jennifer Boldt,
Ian Perry, Jaclyn Cleary, Matt Thompson, Nathan Taylor, and many others
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Biological Station
3190 Hammond Bay Road, Nanaimo, B.C., V9T 6N7, Canada. [email protected]
Long-term Variability in Fish Populations
(Baumgartner et al. 1992)
1,700 years of Sardine and Anchovy Population Trends
Common Patterns in Fish Recruitment & Survival
Salmon and herring in the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska
Mueter, F.J., J.L. Boldt, B.A. Megrey, and R.M. Peterman. 2007. Recruitment and survival of Northeast Pacific Ocean fish stocks:
temporal trends, covariation, and regime shifts. CJFAS 64: 911-927.
Fish Recruitment and Survival (Cury)
• Hjort “critical period” (1913): oceanographic environment affects larvae survival and
affects recruitment success.
• Cushing “match-mismatch” hypothesis (1969): production of fish larvae matches or
mismatches production of their food.
• Lasker “stability” hypothesis (1975, 1978): stable environment is needed to allow
successful feeding for larvae.
• Parrish et al.” transport” hypothesis (1981) : Larvae transported by currents offshore are
lost for recruitment.
• Rothschild and Osborn/MacKensie ”turbulence” hypothesis (1988): micro turbulences
increase the encounter rates between larvae and their food.
• Sinclair ”member/vagrant” hypothesis (1988): constraints imposed by mesoscale
oceanographic events on the life cycle.
• Bakun ”triad” hypothesis (1993): enrichment, retention, concentration
Pacific Currents
Atmospheric Forcing
and Ocean
Responses
(Di Lorenzo et al. 2013)
• Temperature
• Salinity
• Water column structure
• Currents/transport
• Freshwater input
• Upwelling
• Oxygen
• Nutrients
Pacific Ocean Indices (Crawford 2014)
Crawford. 2014. Global temperature in
2013, and anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska.
In Perry, R.I. (Ed). State of the physical,
biological and selected fishery resources of
Pacific Canadian marine ecosystems in
2013. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci.
3102: vi + 136 p.
Sea Surface
Temperature
Crawford, 2014
The Warm ‘Blob’
Courtesy of Ian Perry
January 2014
January 2015
Difference from normal temperatures
Difference from normal temperatures
Very intense warm water
(3 °C above normal) in NE Pacific,
but cool along BC coast
NE Pacific has cooled, but warm
water now along BC coast
2015 U.S. – Canada collaborative project: Evaluate hypotheses regarding the
expected response of fish to anomalous ocean conditions in the GOA, BC, PNW.
Primary Productivity and Temperature
Mueter, F.J., et al. 2009. Ecosystem responses to recent oceanographic variability in high-latitude Northern
Hemisphere ecosystems. Progress in Oceanography 81: 93-110.
Primary & Zooplankton Productivity – Hecate St., QCI
Ware, D., and McQueen, D. 2006. Retrospective estimates of interannual and decadal variability in lower
trophic level production in the Hecate Strait-Queen Charlotte Sound region from 1958 to 1998. Can. Tech.
Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2656: vii + 31 p.
Primary & Zooplankton Productivity – Hecate St., QCI
Ware, D., and McQueen, D. 2006. Retrospective estimates of interannual and decadal variability in lower
trophic level production in the Hecate Strait-Queen Charlotte Sound region from 1958 to 1998. Can. Tech.
Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2656: vii + 31 p.
Carrying Capacity and Bottom-Up Forcing
Ware and Thomson (2005)
Positive correlation between:
chl-a and fish yield
for NPac fish, BC groundfish & herring
Carrying Capacity and Bottom-Up Forcing
Perry and Schweigert (2008)
Correlation between primary
& herring productivity
Drivers of change acting on the Strait of Georgia
15 natural and human Driver &
Pressure (explanatory) variables
examined for statistical
relationships with
22 State & Impact (response)
variables for the Strait of Georgia,
1970-2010
Explanatory variables identified to
be statistically significant (using
redundancy analysis) were:
• sea surface temperature,
• wind speed,
• North Pacific Gyre Oscillation;
• human population,
• recreational fishing effort,
• number of Chinook salmon
released from hatcheries
Perry and Masson, 2013. Progr in Oceanogr.
These six variables describe regime-like behaviour of the SOG since 1970.
0.4
'Parsimonious' RDA
Perry(Scaling=0)
and Masson, 2013. Progr in Oceanogr.
1972
1976
0.2
1975
1981
1973
1980
1977
1996, 1998-2007
1984
20042000
2002
1999
1998
2001
1971
1983
1979
0.0
1978
1974
1982
1996
2007
2005
2003
2006
1990
-0.2
1985
1991
1986
1995
1997
19921994
1989
1988
-0.4
RDA Axis 2, 6% of total variance
1971-1984
1987
1985-1995, 1997
1993
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
RDA Axis 1, 66% of total variance
0.4
Courtesy of Di Lorenzo, 2014
Zooplankton
Southern Vancouver Island
Boreal Shelf Copepods
Northern Vancouver Island
Boreal Shelf Copepods
Vancouver Island
Biomass anomaly
Galbraith et al. 2014.
State of the Ocean
Report
Subarctic Copepods
Southern Copepods
Subarctic Copepods
Southern Copepods
Environmental Effects on Biology
• Light - amount and timing of primary production
• Temperature –distribution, primary production timing, spawn timing and amount, fecundity, egg
size, egg development, hatching rates, metabolism, growth rates, swim speeds, disease,
increased predation, presence of new predators or competitors...
• Salinity – water column structure and production, hatch time, growth
• Water column structure – amount and timing of primary production
• Currents/transport – respiration for eggs, transport and distribution of animals, retention or loss
of larvae, concentration of animals/prey, prey species composition
• Freshwater input - amount and timing of primary production, retention of larvae
• Sea level - retention
• Upwelling – nutrients, oxygen, temperature
• Oxygen – life or death, distribution
• Nutrients – amount of primary production
• Acidification – amount of shell-forming prey
Environmental Effects on Biology
• effects: lethal, controlling, directive, limiting, and masking
• levels: organ, organism, population, or ecosystem
• dependent on previous history, exposure, sensitivity, rate of change, and
presence of other synergistic or antagonistic factors
Primary production amount (12)
Temperature (10, 13)
Temperature (10)
Water movement (9)
Salinity (9)
Temperature (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
River discharge (3, 4, 5)
Salinity (1, 4, 5)
Sea level (4, 5)
Ekman transport (2, 4, 5)
Upwelling (6)
Temperature (11)
May-Jun
Primary production
timing (7)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Publication
Dreyfus-Leon and Schweigert 2008
Zebdi and Collie 1995
Stocker et al. 1985
Stocker and Noakes 1988
Schweigert and Noakes 1990
Williams and Quinn 2000
Schweigert et al. 2013
Ramey and Wickett 1973
Alderdice and Hourston 1985
Tanasichuk and Ware 1987
Tanasichuk 1997
Perry and Schweigert 2008
Hay and Kronlund 1987
Ware and Thomas 2005
Pacific Herring
Recruits, 1950-2014
(DFO)
Juvenile Herring and Nearshore SOG Pelagic Survey
(Thompson et al., 2014)
• Annual, 1992-2014 (except 1995)
• September-October
• Night-time sampling
8
• Fish species composition, relative abundance,
morphometrics
9
• Zooplankton
• CTD
4
• 10 “Core” Transects (1st stage sampling units)
• 5 stations
10
(2nd
stage sampling units) per transect
• Open water and channel type habitats (strata)
11
3
St
ra
it
o
5
1
2
6
fG
eo
rg
ia
SOG Age-0 Herring Catches
DRAFT!)
(Boldt et al. in progress;
SOG Age-0 Herring and Spring Bloom Timing
(Schweigert et al. 2013)
•The largest herring year-classes
occurred when the spring bloom began
between DOY 60 and 80.
•Stronger year-classes most frequent
when spawning extends to ~DOY 90.
•Support for Match-Mismatch hypothesis
Herring and Sardine Distribution – WCVI Nighttime trawl survey
Herring - 2012
50.0
50.5
51.0
Sardine - 2012
(Boldt et al. 2012)
-8
49.5
-10
-14
48.0
48.5
49.0
-12
-128
-127
-126
-125
-124 -129
-128
-127
-126
-125
Herring and Sardine Diets– 2012 (Boldt et al. 2012)
Species overlap=
Species=
ANOSIM Global R (p-value)
Species
Co-occurrence
0.424 (0.001)
0.109 (0.001)
ANOSIM on Bray-Curtis similarity matrix based on 4th-root transformed data
La Perouse Survey, 2014
Herring Mix
Herring
Sardine
Zooplankton
Location
SST
etc.
..
Generalized Additive Model
Sardine & herring distribution ~ biological & environmental variables
Pacific Herring
Weight-at-Age,
1950-2014
(J. Cleary, DFO, pers. comm.)
Otolith Growth Chronology (Black et al. 2013)
Growth chronologies used to:
• Improve accuracy of ages used in stock assessments
• Assess declines in size-at-age of species that may be related to declines in
growth rate and productivity.
Growth Chronology
Current DFO SPERA Project:
• Develop multidecadal growth chronology for Pacific Herring (& hake, sablefish)
using historically-collected scales
• Evaluate hypotheses regarding declines in size-at-age
• Identify coast-wide climate-growth relationships
• Develop coast-wide proxies of past environmental variability
• Examine patterns across species, latitudinal, or topographic gradients
related to the impact of oceanographic drivers on ecosystem productivity.
• Project Lead: John Holmes
• Collaborators: Shayne MacLellan, Stephen Wischniowski, Darlene
Gillespie, Bryan Black, Jennifer Boldt
?
Courtesy of Matt Thompson, DFO, 2015
Summary
• Environmental variables affect fish productivity through
enrichment, concentration, retention
• Effects at organism to ecosystem-level and can depend on
previous history
• Temperature appears to be important at all life stages and
processes
• Research projects are underway
• Current factors that may be important: warm ‘blob’, and ‘?’
Contributors & Acknowledgements
Kristen Daniel
Linnea Flostrand
Charles Fort
Moira Galbraith
Stéphane Gauthier
Doug Hay
Vanessa Hodes
Terry Quinn
Chris Rooper
Jake Schweigert
Tom Therriault
Pacific Salmon Foundation
Herring Conservation Research Society
W.E. Ricker captain, crew, participants
SOG juvenile herring survey participants
Zotec Services
Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Doug Henderson
Sandy McFarlane
Chris O’Grady