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Christerline Ndeleki and Juliane Zeidler, Adaptation Working Group (AWG), Investment and Financial Flows (I&FF) Assessment, Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MET), Windhoek, Namibia Policy conclusions Agricultural diversification to include more species and crops adapted to Namibian conditions Create awareness on climate change risks and adaptation options A shift from indigenous crops should be encouraged in areas prone to droughts and flooding by ddiversifying to non–traditional crops and value adding Improve the profitability of agriculture and increase investment in agriculture More investment is needed in crop improvement research to serve farmers best information (Crop research is a vital area for adaptation to climate change in order to deal with changes in the length of growing seasons and increased droughts) Reduce imports through producing more of the imported products locally Mainstream climate change into development rather than considering it as an environmental issue Namibia’s Investment and Financial Flows Assessment to Address Climate Change The Government of Namibia (GRN) under the leadership of its Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MET) is engaging in a first of its kind assessment, determining current investments into key sectors and projected future costs for successfully addressing climate change, both through adaptation and mitigation. Namibia is one of 21 countries worldwide supported by the United Nations Development Programme to undertake such a study. Representatives from various government ministries and institutions, in collaboration with private sector experts have been working together on an inter-ministerial committee and working groups to elaborate Namibia’s I&FF Assessment since February 2010. This Option Paper series focusing on Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) Viewpoints is presenting some of the key discussion points and findings of the Adaptation Working Group (AWG), and are intended to inform debates on key adaptation decision making in Namibia. Adaptation Focal Sector: Agriculture with linkages to LULUCF At the onset of the I&FF Assessment, the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC), chaired by MET, determined the initial key sector that was to be investigated. It was decided that the Agriculture Sector with making linkages to the much broader Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Sector should be the focus of the initial investigations. Whereas the full I&FF Adaptation Assessment Report is available at http://xxxx, and other volumes in this Option Paper series are providing succinct summaries thereof, this current CCA Viewpoint is presenting policy relevant research information on a selected case study that was undertaken by AWG members to enrich the Assessment. The following case study topics are presented in the series: (i) Mahangu – a suitable dry land crop? (ii) Cotton & Rice – food alternatives under changing climatic conditions? (iii) Aquaculture – is there a real potential? (iv) Indigenous livestock – what is the value? (v) Game and wildlife – better adapted land and resource uses? (vi) Flood and drought subsidies (vii) Weather forecasting and decision making tools 1|Page Crop diversification in the agriculture sector for adaptation purposes-where? Namibia is a minor producer of greenhouse gases thus it places more emphasis on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change compared to mitigation (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). The Namibian government aims at adapting to CC focusing on farming systems by promoting the use of drought resistant crops while encouraging activities that do not require too much water and generating income opportunities and livelihoods (Ashipala, 2009). In order to minimise CC impacts and other related environmental changes it is important to diversify crop varieties for improved resistance and great tolerance to stress caused by drought, flooding and extreme temperatures (Lane & Javis, 2007). Changes in weather patterns increase the crop’s vulnerability to pests and diseases. Impacts of CC on crops vary depending on the region, season of planting and the crop’s temperature thresholds (Lane & Javis, 2007). Namibia is a dry country but food production can be increased through crop diversification and exploitation of under-utilized natural resources (Awala, 2008). The seasonal wetlands, Oshanas and the Zambezi river flood plains in the northern communal areas can store enough amounts of water for a period of 5 months after the in flows from the neighboring countries such as Angola and Zamibia (Awala, 2008). These areas could be put to use by resource poor communal farmers. Rice cultivation in the Oshanas and the Zambezi flood plains could be an alternative to complement low yields of traditional local crops and to generate cash income for local farmers (Awala, 2008). The benefits of this type of move is to reduce poverty and improve livelihoods in rural areas especially the northern communal areas with a reduction in grain imports and increased national food security (Awala, 2008). The Oshanas are part of a large drainage system which is the Cuvelai drainage system fed by annual rainfall from the central Angola catchments (Awala, 2008). These areas cover an area of 7,000-11,550 km²; they act as reservoirs by storing water during rainy seasons and releasing it at a later stage (Awala, 2008). The Zambezi flood plains located north-east of the country and covers 11,600 km². They receive water from the Zambezi River which is a perennial river. The Oshanas have the potential to be used for rice cultivation although they have variable soil types which could affect rice production in the near future (Awala, 2008). Some of the Oshanas have fertile and alluvial soils due to accumulated organic matters found in them (low lying area). Rice maybe cultivated in the Oshanas but it depends on the amount of flood waters received during the rainy season (Awala, 2008). Other Oshanas have natural occurring salinity which could have an effect on rice production. These include the Oshanas extending to the Etosha salt pan (Awala, 2008). Rice is a salt sensitive crop and this affects its growth and yield. Never the less rice adaptation to saline conditions is different among genotypes (Awala, 2008). What has been done on this in Namibia and what’s feasible (?) Pearl millet has low tolerance to the country’s recurrent drought spells but it’s the most dominant crop in the Northern part of Namibia (Awala, 2008). It is not well suited to the low rainfall conditions but it has adapted over the years although it still produces low yields (Awala, 2008). Maize and wheat is produced in few large farms in some parts of the country (Awala, 2008). Namibia is a dry country but food production can be increased through crop diversification and exploitation of under-utilized natural resources (Awala, 2008). The Northern Communal Areas are best suited to agronomy compared to most parts of the country, and there’s potential for intensification and diversification of agricultural production (Phororo, 2001). The Government of Namibia’s goal is to increase production which will contribute towards the attainment of household food security and a reduction in imported food. For the purpose of this paper rice and cotton are food crop and cash crop respectively. Cotton was first introduced to Namibia in the 1970s but its production declined due to high costs, price declines and labor problems (Phororo, 2001).Introduction of these corps will increase food security by increasing food farming household’s productivity, raising rural incomes, employment generation and promotion of economic diversification (Phororo, 2001). The Northern Communal areas have potential for intensification and diversification of agricultural production (Phororo, 2001). Government’s goal is to increase production to contribute to household food security and to reduce the need of importing food into the country (Phororo, 2001). 2|Page Production of crops plays a very important role for household food security especially in the northern parts of the Namibia, though it only contributes 10% to the formal agriculture sector (). Maize and pearl millet forms the back borne of domestic staple foods (). Maize is produced under irrigation and dry land conditions in the maize triangle (Otavi-Grootfontein-Tsumeb area) and in most parts of the country (V & A assessment, 2008). Since the middle to late 1990s, cotton has become an increasingly important option for producers. It is more drought resistant than maize, is excellent in terms of quality and fiber, and has become attractive as a cash crop. During the 1998/99 season, production was around 4000t, and is expected to remain at that figure for 2000. Both communal and commercial farmers are planting cotton as an alternative crop with good potential for Namibia’s arid climate. South African agents purchase cotton from Namibian producers at world prices, which tend to fluctuate, and it is transported to South Africa. In addition, the agents provide extension services such as advice, seed and inputs to the producers (Nepru, 2000). Key challenges- What is needed for strong adaptation There are links between poverty and vulnerability to climate change (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Vulnerability shows human capacity of coping with risks or shocks associated with climate change (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Household income is one of the factors that determine vulnerability. The country is used to the fluctuating climatic conditions such as droughts and frequently occurring floods whereby farmers have developed adaptation options to cope with the ongoing fluctuations. However these adaptation measures are not enough for predicted climate change conditions, especially for the two thirds of the population which are farmers (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Low adaptation capacity is associated to poverty, low education levels and lack of possibilities to diversified household income (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Adaptive responses include diversification options, management practices, improving the exercise of the best technical options as well as improving communication and information (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008) while adaptation projects would include but not limited to testing of drought tolerant crops (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). The problem for vulnerability and adaptation at local levels is inadequate knowledge of what has to be done (V & A assessment, 2008). Crop production and climate change impacts Rainfall scarcity and unpredictability in the country is a significant constraint to the agriculture output throughout the country. The loss of agricultural productivity by Climate Change (CC) could have severe economic impacts on farmers and the country’s economy at large (Brown, 2009). Poor communities are amongst the most vulnerable to the negative effects of CC due to limited financial, skills and technology and their dependence on climate sensitive primary sectors (Brown, 2009). It is these people that will bear the costs of CC most directly because they rely more on the land and its natural resources and they do not have access to capital that enables them to adapt to the effects (Brown, 2009). Rainfall scarcity does not only limit rain fed farming but it also has an effect on the surface runoff and subsurface flow leaving few areas where irrigation can be undertaken without depleting ground water reserves (Malumo, 2008). Rainfall pattern occurs seasonally with an impact on vegetation and crop growth and flooding of the rivers. During the year 2000 it is estimated that 48% of groundwater sources were used for domestic purpose, 78% for livestock, 36% for mining and 26% for irrigation uses (Malumo, 2008). According to the Namibian Agriculture Policy there is potential for expansion of irrigated agriculture through sustainable use of perennial and ephemeral river sources in the country (Malumo, 2008), with the Green Scheme Initiative to add demand on the use of perennial and ground water as water sources for irrigation purposes. Indirect effects due to the increase in the temperature such as lower humidity, increased evaporation and lower soil moisture, are likely to have an effect on water availability to farmers (Brown, 2009). 3|Page The economy of Namibia is highly dependent on natural resources which are extremely sensitive to effects of climate change (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Even without the effects of climate change Namibia is expected to have water problems by the year 2020 (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Climate change is expected to worsen the dry conditions that already exist. Climate change will mostly affect the poor communities by constraining employment opportunities and a decline in wages (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Temperatures increased at three times (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008) and it is predicted that temperature rise will increase 2 to 6۫۫°C while evaporation rates are estimated to increase by 5% per degree (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). This will have a negative impact on food production and water availability (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). The country could be faced with annual losses amounting up to 6% of the GDP resulting from impact caused by climate change on the natural resources (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Current investments- versus projected investments needs. In order to achieve food self-sufficiency and food security in Namibia, farmers need protection from price fluctuations in order to achieve confidence in crop production (Namibian Agronomic board, 2004). The table (Table.5) below indicates the appropriation account for the year 2005/06 final year. It shows among other things the expenditure for each of the divisions (MAWF, 2006). Table.5. Appropriation account for the financial year 2005/2006 Main Adjusted Expenditure Expenditure compared with vote Division Appropriation 2005/2006 More than Less than 2005/2006 N$ appropriated appropriated N$ N$ Agricultural Research 33,728,000.00 30,730,058.06 2,997,941.94 Percentage difference with appropriated amount % 8.9 Project funds were invested as follows table.6. (Namibian agronomic board, 2007). Table.6. Projects fund for the year 2006/2007 Funds available 2007 N$ 2006 N$ Cotton campaign 353 639 317 304 Development projects for irrigation projects (Table.7.) included pump stations, pipelines, irrigation systems, grain-storage facilities and a pack-house, below is the budget and expenditure for different projects including the Kalimebza rice project in the Caprivi. Table.7. Development projects budget for the financial year 2004/2005 Project Budget 2004/2005 Sachona Etunda GreesnScheme Hardap main water 256,000 4,500,000 2, 000,000 5,000,000 Expenditure 2004/2005 256,000 4,500,00 2,000,000 5,000,000 Percentage budget spent 100 100 100 100 of Saving/shortfall 0 0 0 0 4|Page supply Orange project Kalimbeza project Ndonga project Total river 1,400,000 1,400,000 100 0 rice 3,000,000 3,000,000 100 0 linene 5,000,000 5,000,000 100 0 21,156,000 21,156,000 100 0 Conclusions These adaptations will require substantial investments by farmers, governments, scientists and development organizations, all of whom face many other demands on their resources. CEEPA's study report, Crop Selection: Adapting to Climate Change in Africa, strongly suggests that agricultural analyses of climate change impacts take crop selection into account. Climate change affects agriculture through effects on crop, soils, insects, weeds and diseases and livestock. Climate change will increase the already unpleasant conditions of crop production in the dry lands. Taking into consideration the socio-economic and political contexts adaptations to climate change need to be durable, in order to have the ability to deal with stresses and disturbances as a result of change, while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organization, and the capacity to learn and adapt to change. Planning and financing adaptation as well as adapting to climate change require an understanding of current conditions agriculture and ecological as well as sector-related dimensions. It requires an understanding of the adaptive abilities, resilience and livelihood strategies of the local population who are directly affected by the impacts of climate change and who must cope with the realities of multiple pressures (e. g. climate variability and change). It also requires an understanding of how the various levels of governance enable or hinder local actors to improve their wellbeing. 5|Page