Download Christerline Ndeleki and Juliane Zeidler, Adaptation Working Group

Christerline Ndeleki and Juliane Zeidler, Adaptation Working Group (AWG), Investment and Financial Flows (I&FF)
Assessment, Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MET), Windhoek, Namibia
Policy conclusions
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Agricultural diversification to include more species and crops adapted to Namibian conditions
Create awareness on climate change risks and adaptation options
A shift from indigenous crops should be encouraged in areas prone to droughts and flooding by
ddiversifying to non–traditional crops and value adding
Improve the profitability of agriculture and increase investment in agriculture
More investment is needed in crop improvement research to serve farmers best information (Crop
research is a vital area for adaptation to climate change in order to deal with changes in the length
of growing seasons and increased droughts)
Reduce imports through producing more of the imported products locally
Mainstream climate change into development rather than considering it as an environmental issue
Namibia’s Investment and Financial Flows Assessment to Address Climate Change
The Government of Namibia (GRN) under the leadership of its Ministry of Environment and Tourism
(MET) is engaging in a first of its kind assessment, determining current investments into key sectors and
projected future costs for successfully addressing climate change, both through adaptation and mitigation.
Namibia is one of 21 countries worldwide supported by the United Nations Development Programme to
undertake such a study.
Representatives from various government ministries and institutions, in collaboration with private sector
experts have been working together on an inter-ministerial committee and working groups to elaborate
Namibia’s I&FF Assessment since February 2010.
This Option Paper series focusing on Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) Viewpoints is presenting some
of the key discussion points and findings of the Adaptation Working Group (AWG), and are intended to
inform debates on key adaptation decision making in Namibia.
Adaptation Focal Sector: Agriculture with linkages to LULUCF
At the onset of the I&FF Assessment, the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC), chaired by MET,
determined the initial key sector that was to be investigated. It was decided that the Agriculture Sector
with making linkages to the much broader Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Sector
should be the focus of the initial investigations.
Whereas the full I&FF Adaptation Assessment Report is available at http://xxxx, and other volumes in this
Option Paper series are providing succinct summaries thereof, this current CCA Viewpoint is presenting
policy relevant research information on a selected case study that was undertaken by AWG members to
enrich the Assessment. The following case study topics are presented in the series:
(i) Mahangu – a suitable dry land crop?
(ii) Cotton & Rice – food alternatives under changing climatic conditions?
(iii) Aquaculture – is there a real potential?
(iv) Indigenous livestock – what is the value?
(v) Game and wildlife – better adapted land and resource uses?
(vi) Flood and drought subsidies
(vii) Weather forecasting and decision making tools
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Crop diversification in the agriculture sector for adaptation purposes-where?
Namibia is a minor producer of greenhouse gases thus it places more emphasis on vulnerability and
adaptation to climate change compared to mitigation (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). The
Namibian government aims at adapting to CC focusing on farming systems by promoting the use of
drought resistant crops while encouraging activities that do not require too much water and generating
income opportunities and livelihoods (Ashipala, 2009). In order to minimise CC impacts and other related
environmental changes it is important to diversify crop varieties for improved resistance and great
tolerance to stress caused by drought, flooding and extreme temperatures (Lane & Javis, 2007). Changes
in weather patterns increase the crop’s vulnerability to pests and diseases. Impacts of CC on crops vary
depending on the region, season of planting and the crop’s temperature thresholds (Lane & Javis, 2007).
Namibia is a dry country but food production can be increased through crop diversification and
exploitation of under-utilized natural resources (Awala, 2008). The seasonal wetlands, Oshanas and the
Zambezi river flood plains in the northern communal areas can store enough amounts of water for a
period of 5 months after the in flows from the neighboring countries such as Angola and Zamibia (Awala,
2008). These areas could be put to use by resource poor communal farmers. Rice cultivation in the
Oshanas and the Zambezi flood plains could be an alternative to complement low yields of traditional
local crops and to generate cash income for local farmers (Awala, 2008). The benefits of this type of
move is to reduce poverty and improve livelihoods in rural areas especially the northern communal areas
with a reduction in grain imports and increased national food security (Awala, 2008).
The Oshanas are part of a large drainage system which is the Cuvelai drainage system fed by annual
rainfall from the central Angola catchments (Awala, 2008). These areas cover an area of 7,000-11,550
km²; they act as reservoirs by storing water during rainy seasons and releasing it at a later stage (Awala,
2008). The Zambezi flood plains located north-east of the country and covers 11,600 km². They receive
water from the Zambezi River which is a perennial river. The Oshanas have the potential to be used for
rice cultivation although they have variable soil types which could affect rice production in the near future
(Awala, 2008). Some of the Oshanas have fertile and alluvial soils due to accumulated organic matters
found in them (low lying area). Rice maybe cultivated in the Oshanas but it depends on the amount of
flood waters received during the rainy season (Awala, 2008). Other Oshanas have natural occurring
salinity which could have an effect on rice production. These include the Oshanas extending to the
Etosha salt pan (Awala, 2008). Rice is a salt sensitive crop and this affects its growth and yield. Never
the less rice adaptation to saline conditions is different among genotypes (Awala, 2008).
What has been done on this in Namibia and what’s feasible (?)
Pearl millet has low tolerance to the country’s recurrent drought spells but it’s the most dominant crop in
the Northern part of Namibia (Awala, 2008). It is not well suited to the low rainfall conditions but it has
adapted over the years although it still produces low yields (Awala, 2008). Maize and wheat is produced
in few large farms in some parts of the country (Awala, 2008). Namibia is a dry country but food
production can be increased through crop diversification and exploitation of under-utilized natural
resources (Awala, 2008). The Northern Communal Areas are best suited to agronomy compared to most
parts of the country, and there’s potential for intensification and diversification of agricultural production
(Phororo, 2001). The Government of Namibia’s goal is to increase production which will contribute
towards the attainment of household food security and a reduction in imported food. For the purpose of
this paper rice and cotton are food crop and cash crop respectively. Cotton was first introduced to
Namibia in the 1970s but its production declined due to high costs, price declines and labor problems
(Phororo, 2001).Introduction of these corps will increase food security by increasing food farming
household’s productivity, raising rural incomes, employment generation and promotion of economic
diversification (Phororo, 2001). The Northern Communal areas have potential for intensification and
diversification of agricultural production (Phororo, 2001). Government’s goal is to increase production to
contribute to household food security and to reduce the need of importing food into the country (Phororo,
2001).
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Production of crops plays a very important role for household food security especially in the northern
parts of the Namibia, though it only contributes 10% to the formal agriculture sector (). Maize and pearl
millet forms the back borne of domestic staple foods (). Maize is produced under irrigation and dry land
conditions in the maize triangle (Otavi-Grootfontein-Tsumeb area) and in most parts of the country (V & A
assessment, 2008).
Since the middle to late 1990s, cotton has become an increasingly important option for producers. It is
more drought resistant than maize, is excellent in terms of quality and fiber, and has become attractive as
a cash crop. During the 1998/99 season, production was around 4000t, and is expected to remain at that
figure for 2000. Both communal and commercial farmers are planting cotton as an alternative crop with
good potential for Namibia’s arid climate. South African agents purchase cotton from Namibian producers
at world prices, which tend to fluctuate, and it is transported to South Africa. In addition, the agents
provide extension services such as advice, seed and inputs to the producers (Nepru, 2000).
Key challenges- What is needed for strong adaptation
There are links between poverty and vulnerability to climate change (Namibia environmental and policy
brief, 2008). Vulnerability shows human capacity of coping with risks or shocks associated with climate
change (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Household income is one of the factors that
determine vulnerability. The country is used to the fluctuating climatic conditions such as droughts and
frequently occurring floods whereby farmers have developed adaptation options to cope with the ongoing
fluctuations. However these adaptation measures are not enough for predicted climate change
conditions, especially for the two thirds of the population which are farmers (Namibia environmental and
policy brief, 2008). Low adaptation capacity is associated to poverty, low education levels and lack of
possibilities to diversified household income (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Adaptive
responses include diversification options, management practices, improving the exercise of the best
technical options as well as improving communication and information (Namibia environmental and policy
brief, 2008) while adaptation projects would include but not limited to testing of drought tolerant crops
(Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). The problem for vulnerability and adaptation at local
levels is inadequate knowledge of what has to be done (V & A assessment, 2008).
Crop production and climate change impacts
Rainfall scarcity and unpredictability in the country is a significant constraint to the agriculture output
throughout the country. The loss of agricultural productivity by Climate Change (CC) could have severe
economic impacts on farmers and the country’s economy at large (Brown, 2009). Poor communities are
amongst the most vulnerable to the negative effects of CC due to limited financial, skills and technology
and their dependence on climate sensitive primary sectors (Brown, 2009). It is these people that will bear
the costs of CC most directly because they rely more on the land and its natural resources and they do
not have access to capital that enables them to adapt to the effects (Brown, 2009).
Rainfall scarcity does not only limit rain fed farming but it also has an effect on the surface runoff and
subsurface flow leaving few areas where irrigation can be undertaken without depleting ground water
reserves (Malumo, 2008). Rainfall pattern occurs seasonally with an impact on vegetation and crop
growth and flooding of the rivers. During the year 2000 it is estimated that 48% of groundwater sources
were used for domestic purpose, 78% for livestock, 36% for mining and 26% for irrigation uses (Malumo,
2008). According to the Namibian Agriculture Policy there is potential for expansion of irrigated agriculture
through sustainable use of perennial and ephemeral river sources in the country (Malumo, 2008), with the
Green Scheme Initiative to add demand on the use of perennial and ground water as water sources for
irrigation purposes. Indirect effects due to the increase in the temperature such as lower humidity,
increased evaporation and lower soil moisture, are likely to have an effect on water availability to farmers
(Brown, 2009).
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The economy of Namibia is highly dependent on natural resources which are extremely sensitive to
effects of climate change (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Even without the effects of
climate change Namibia is expected to have water problems by the year 2020 (Namibia environmental
and policy brief, 2008). Climate change is expected to worsen the dry conditions that already exist.
Climate change will mostly affect the poor communities by constraining employment opportunities and a
decline in wages (Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008). Temperatures increased at three times
(Namibia environmental and policy brief, 2008) and it is predicted that temperature rise will increase 2 to
6۫۫°C while evaporation rates are estimated to increase by 5% per degree (Namibia environmental and
policy brief, 2008). This will have a negative impact on food production and water availability (Namibia
environmental and policy brief, 2008). The country could be faced with annual losses amounting up to 6%
of the GDP resulting from impact caused by climate change on the natural resources (Namibia
environmental and policy brief, 2008).
Current investments- versus projected investments needs.
In order to achieve food self-sufficiency and food security in Namibia, farmers need protection from price
fluctuations in order to achieve confidence in crop production (Namibian Agronomic board, 2004).
The table (Table.5) below indicates the appropriation account for the year 2005/06 final year. It shows
among other things the expenditure for each of the divisions (MAWF, 2006).
Table.5. Appropriation account for the financial year 2005/2006
Main
Adjusted
Expenditure
Expenditure compared with vote
Division
Appropriation
2005/2006
More
than Less
than
2005/2006
N$
appropriated
appropriated
N$
N$
Agricultural
Research
33,728,000.00
30,730,058.06
2,997,941.94
Percentage
difference with
appropriated
amount
%
8.9
Project funds were invested as follows table.6. (Namibian agronomic board, 2007).
Table.6. Projects fund for the year 2006/2007
Funds available
2007 N$
2006 N$
Cotton campaign
353 639
317 304
Development projects for irrigation projects (Table.7.) included pump stations, pipelines, irrigation
systems, grain-storage facilities and a pack-house, below is the budget and expenditure for different
projects including the Kalimebza rice project in the Caprivi.
Table.7. Development projects budget for the financial year 2004/2005
Project
Budget 2004/2005
Sachona
Etunda
GreesnScheme
Hardap main water
256,000
4,500,000
2, 000,000
5,000,000
Expenditure
2004/2005
256,000
4,500,00
2,000,000
5,000,000
Percentage
budget spent
100
100
100
100
of
Saving/shortfall
0
0
0
0
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supply
Orange
project
Kalimbeza
project
Ndonga
project
Total
river
1,400,000
1,400,000
100
0
rice
3,000,000
3,000,000
100
0
linene
5,000,000
5,000,000
100
0
21,156,000
21,156,000
100
0
Conclusions
These adaptations will require substantial investments by farmers, governments, scientists and
development organizations, all of whom face many other demands on their resources. CEEPA's study
report, Crop Selection: Adapting to Climate Change in Africa, strongly suggests that agricultural analyses
of climate change impacts take crop selection into account. Climate change affects agriculture through
effects on crop, soils, insects, weeds and diseases and livestock.
Climate change will increase the already unpleasant conditions of crop production in the dry lands. Taking
into consideration the socio-economic and political contexts adaptations to climate change need to be
durable, in order to have the ability to deal with stresses and disturbances as a result of change, while
retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organization, and the
capacity to learn and adapt to change.
Planning and financing adaptation as well as adapting to climate change require an understanding of
current conditions agriculture and ecological as well as sector-related dimensions. It requires an
understanding of the adaptive abilities, resilience and livelihood strategies of the local population who are
directly affected by the impacts of climate change and who must cope with the realities of multiple
pressures (e. g. climate variability and change). It also requires an understanding of how the various
levels of governance enable or hinder local actors to improve their wellbeing.
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