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Conservation Assessment of Satyrium polingi organensis (Ferris) Year 1 Report to New Mexico Department of Game and Fish pursuant to contract # 125160000 00037 Steven J. Cary, Linda S. DeLay and John J. Pfeil Natural Resource Institute Santa Fe, New Mexico December 3, 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS page List of Figures . . . . . . . . . 3 Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . 3 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . 4 Study Area . . . . . . . . . . 5 Methods . . . . . . . . . . 7 Results . . . . . . . . . . 7 Distribution of Satyrium polingi organensis . . . . . 7 Life History . . Ecosystem Services . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . 12 . . . 13 Population Structure of Satyrium polingi organensis Dispersal of Satyrium polingi organensis . . . . . . 13 Vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . 14 Threats . . . . . . . . . . 15 Future Work . . . . . . . . . . 18 Literature Cited . . . . . . . . . 19 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Ventral view of Satyrium polingi . . . . . . Figure 2. Study area for Satyrium polingi organensis . . . . . . . Figure 4. A small stringer of shrub live oak (Quercus turbinella) . . . Figure 5. Distribution of Quercus turbinella in North America . . . Figure 6. Distribution of Quercus turbinella in New Mexico . . . Figure 7. Expected annual life cycle of Satyrium polingi organensis . . Figure 8. Occurrence of interior chaparral and oak in relation to past fires . . Figure 3. Locations of SPO adults observed during this study Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of White Sands Missile Range Botanist David Anderson and San Andres National Wildlife Refuge Wildlife Biologist Mara Weisenberger, without whose support and assistance this project could not have been undertaken and from whom we learned much. Funding was through NMDGF Share with Wildlife and USFWS State Wildlife Grants T-32-P-3, Project 5. Cover: Male Satyrium polingi organensis (Ferris) perching for females atop a Quercus turbinella plant in the Mockingbird Mountains, Socorro County, NM, June 6, 2012, by S. J. Cary. Introduction Poling's Hairstreak, Satyrium polingi (W. Barnes & Benjamin), is a thumbnail-size butterfly (Figure 1) that occupies parts of the Chihuahuan Desert in southern New Mexico, west Texas and northeast Mexico (www.butterfliesandmoths.org/species/Satyrium-polingi). Across this geographic range its habitats are defined by the presence of desert-adapted live oaks (Quercus spp.) occupying habitats spanning elevations of 5500 to 7000 feet above sea level in Chihuahuan Desert mountain ranges. Exhibiting classic basin-and-range physiography, those semi-arid mountain ranges occur in narrow, linear uplifts separated from other similar mountain ranges by broad, arid lowlands that lack oaks. Conservation concerns for S. polingi in New Mexico were first expressed more than 20 years ago (Cary and Holland 1992). Conservation organizations weighed S. polingi's habitat and occurrence and concluded it was "imperiled" (www.natureserve.org/explorer; Vaughan and Shepherd 2005). Figure 1. Ventral view of Satyrium polingi. Photo June 6, 2012, by S. J. Cary. S. polingi (SP henceforth) has two described subspecific races; the nominate race S. p. polingi (SPP henceforth) occupies northern Mexico, west Texas and the Guadalupe Mountains of southeast New Mexico. When Ferris (1980) published the discovery of a population of S. polingi from the Organ Mountains in Doña Ana County of south-central New Mexico, he enumerated several phenotypic differences from other known colonies of that species in the Davis and Chisos mountains of west Texas. He christened this new race subspecies organensis (SPO henceforth). Over the past 30+ years since Ferris (1980), sparse field work has not documented occurrence of SPO beyond the oak shrublands ringing the Organ Mountains. Despite a lack of detailed published information about this organism, its limited known occurrence prompted NatureServe to characterize its conservation status as "critically imperiled" (e.g., www.natureserve.org/explorer). The New Mexico Department of Game and Fish (NMDGF 2006) declared SPO to be a Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN). The Share with Wildlife (SwW) program of NMDGF funded this study to analyze its biology, habitat, distribution and threats, and to develop a conservation assessment for SPO. By conducting field investigations supported by a geographic information system (GIS) and analysis of remote sensing imagery, we proposed to survey for additional suitable habitat and populations, from which we would develop a conservation assessment for this SPO. The report below summarizes accomplishments for Year 1 of this study. Year 2 Action Items are highlighted within the report, then summarized at the end. Study Area Prior to this project, all known occurrences of SPO were associated with oak scrublands ringing the Organ Mountains a few miles east of Las Cruces, NM, at latitude 32.35º N (Figure 2). Figure 2. Study area for Satyrium polingi organensis. Three circumstances suggested to the authors that SPO also may occur farther to the north: (1) in southeast New Mexico nominate SPP extends north as far as the Capitan Mountains at 33.55° N latitude (Toliver et al. 2001:254); (2) there are no obvious barriers to northward dispersal of SPO to the San Andres Mountains; and (3) the San Andres Mountains are populated by stands of shrub oak similar to those in the Organ Mountains (Muldavin 2004). Year 1 of this study investigated lands and habitats in the San Andres and Oscura Mountains for evidence of SPO. Geology The San Andres Mountains extend about 75 miles (120 km) north to south, but are only about 12 miles (19 km) wide at their widest. The highest peak in the San Andres Mountains is Salinas Peak which is just under 9000 feet (2743 m). Though nearly contiguous with the Organ Mountains to the south, the two are very distinct geologically and botanically. The Oscura Mountains to the north are separated from the San Andres Mountains by Mockingbird Gap and the much lower Little Burro Mountains. The San Andres Mountains are comparatively dry and do not support any extensive woodlands. The San Andres Mountains form part of the eastern edge of the rift valley of the Rio Grande, and are made up of west-dipping fault blocks made primarily of San Andres Formation limestone, but also with extensive exposures of reddish Abo Formation sandstone on the western side, and quartz monzonite on the eastern side (Kottlowski 1955). Gypsum deposits washed from these mountains are the main source of the dunes in White Sands National Monument. Land Ownership & Access This study was implemented primarily on lands owned and managed by White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), part of the U. S. Department of Defense (USDOD) and the nation's largest military installation. The mission of WSMR is to provide "Army, Navy, Air Force, DoD, and other customers with high quality services for experimentation, test, research, assessment, development, and training in support of the Nation at war" (www.wsmr.army.mil/WWA/Pages/MissionVision.aspx). This study also was conducted on lands managed by San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), a unit of the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). SANWR was created in 1941 and now provides crucial habitat for desert bighorn sheep. SANWR lands lie wholly within and also under the coordinated jurisdiction of WSMR. There is no routine public access to WSMR or to SANWR. In 2012, SANWR wildlife biologist Mara Weisenberger and WSMR botanist David Anderson helped NRI staff obtain the permits, up-range access passes, and gate combinations needed to legally access WSMR and SANWR. Within much of WSMR, the road system is adequate to provide 4WD, high-clearance access to many areas, with some hiking involved. Most SANWR lands are rugged, with fewer, more challenging roads and more foot travel required. Dr. Anderson and Ms. Weisenberger generously assisted NRI staff in accessing study sites. Year 2 Action Item: Identify, secure and evaluate public documents from WSMR and SANWR describing land and resource management activities on SPO habitat areas. Methods Two primary objectives of Year 1 of this study were to demonstrate occurrence of SPO in the San Andres Mountains, define its occurrence in some detail, and identify the species of oak with which it was associated. The best way to find SPO is to locate and examine stands of the shrub oak upon which the butterfly depends. Shrub live oak (Quercus turbinella = QUTU) was suspected to be the primary host plant for SPO, based on anecdotal information. The task of locating QUTU stands was simplified by prior efforts of Muldavin (2004), who mapped vegetation types in the study area. One type they mapped was "interior chaparral" which had a high proportion of oak, primarily QUTU. Areas mapped as interior chaparral were further refined in conversations with WSMR botanist David Anderson, whose 25 years of field experience at WSMR enabled him to pinpoint several known locations with high concentrations of QUTU. Thus guided, we investigated study area locales with high concentrations of interior chaparral, looking for the QUTU component. Once a respectable QUTU stand had been identified, field staff walked through the stand at a slow, steady rate, looking for SPO, recording habitat information and taking photos as we went along. Sites where SPO was found were mapped. SPO individuals were observed for behavioral information. Oak patches and SPO locations were mapped using a Garmin GPSMAP 76CSx (median precision = 3m), a Trimble GeoXT (median precision = 1m), or a Trimble Juno SB (median precision = 3m). ESRI ArcGIS 10 software was used to map and analyze the data (awarded by ESRI Nonprofit Organization Program, 2012). Results Distribution of Satyrium polingi organensis Prior to this study, published information regarding geographic distribution of SPO was limited to the handful of Organ Mountains locations where the insect was first collected in 1979 (Toliver et al. 2001) or cited in the original description of this insect (Ferris 1980). 2012 field work funded by SwW allowed NRI to locate SPO in three new locations: one near San Augustin Pass, one east of Quartzite Mountain, and a third in the Mockingbird Hills at the north end of the San Andres Mountains, as indicated by the red dots in Figure 3. We failed to find SPO at some locations we investigated, indicated by black dots in Figure 3. Most of these "failures" occurred during the second week of June 2012, which fell within the normal expected flight season for SPO adults. But winter of 2011-2012 was mild, leading to an early spring, which may have accelerated larval development and triggered adult flight earlier than anticipated. As a result, those black dots in Figure 3 may represent simple bad timing on our part, rather than actual absence of the insect that year. As the old saying goes, "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." Figure 3. Locations of SPO adults observed during this study to date, and historically. Year 2 Action Items: Return in 2013 to some sites that were "no SPO" in 2012. Investigate the possibility that SPO occurs farther north and farther south than is now documented. QUTU is reported from Sevilleta NWR in Socorro Co., nearly 60 miles to the north (Muldavin et al. 1998), but no one has looked for SP there. QUTU is reported to be well-represented in the Franklin Mountains north of El Paso, TX (Powell 1988), and SP is reported from El Paso County, but in a generic way that lacks data about when and where it was found, by whom, and which subspecies it was (www.butterfliesandmoths.org). Life History The life history details for SPO are still only minimally known, and we hope to learn more about that in Year 2 of the study. SPO life history probably mimics that of SPP, and perhaps closely resembles life histories of other members of the subgenus Fixsenia except for the species of oak used. We will borrow from studies of those related taxa to structure our Year 2 life history inquiries for SPO. The genus Satyrium Scudder is now considered to have several subgenera, including subgenus Fixsenia Tutt, which was treated as a full genus at the time Ferris (1980) described organensis. Within Fixsenia, all known North American taxa use one or more oaks (Quercus spp.) as host plants. SPP in west Texas feeds on Gray Oak (Q. grisea or QUGR) and possibly Emory Oak (Q. emoryi or QUEM) to its larvae (Reinthal and Kendall 1962). Satyrium favonius uses Quercus undulata in northeast New Mexico (S. J. Cary, pers. obs.). Satyrium ilavia uses QUTU in Arizona (J. P. Brock, pers. comm.). QUTU, QUGR and QUEM are all evergreen, live-oaks, in which last year's leaves are pushed off by each year's new foliar growth. When SPO was first described, Ferris (1980) found it always in association with shrubby oaks: "Several species or varietal forms of scrub oak occur in the Organs, and the butterflies did not seem to be restricted to any one kind." Anecdotal reports from recent workers in the Organ Mountains (G. S. Forbes, pers. com.) suggested that SPO there may be associated with QUTU, but there had been no authoritative botanical confirmation of the identity of that plant. Field work to date has produced strong evidence that SPO uses Quercus turbinella as a host plant. All SwW project observations of SPO in 2012 were in close association with QUTU, as confirmed by WSMR staff botanist David Anderson (pers. com., 2012). Quercus turbinella Greene is a "widespread and relatively abundant species" in New Mexico, growing as a shrub or small tree to heights up to 3m (Carter 1997: 305). Living from elevations of 4,000 to 8000 feet, QUTU can live in deserts, grasslands, and piñon-juniper woodlands (Carter 1997: 305). In the study area, QUTU grows in stands of variable extent and density, usually on footslopes of desert mountains (see Figure 4). Vegetation mapping at WSMR found QUTU to be an important component of the interior chaparral plant association (Muldavin 2004). QUTU blooms in spring, usually April to June (www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/tree/quetur/), and produces an acorn fruit. The blossoms and developing seeds may be important food for larval stages of SPO. Figure 4. A small stringer of shrub live oak (Quercus turbinella), the gray-green shrubs, extends from right foreground to left middle ground in lower Little San Nicholas Canyon, SANWR. S. J. Cary photo, June 12, 2012. The geographic range of SPO appears to be quite restricted, especially when compared against the range of the larval host plant it uses in our study area, Quercus turbinella. QUTU occurs broadly across the American Southwest, from Texas to California, and probably across a large part of Mexico. Distribution of QUTU is shown in Figures 5 and 6. Figure 5. Distribution of Quercus turbinella in North America (from (http://plants.usda.gov/java/profile?symbol=qutu2). Figure 6. Distribution of Quercus turbinella in New Mexico (from (http://plants.usda.gov/java/profile?symbol=qutu2). The life cycle for SPO is not known in detail, but it probably bears a close resemblance to the life cycles of other species in the genus Satyrium. The hypothetical sequence exhibited in Figure 7 is what we expect for SPO because it is experienced by Satyrium favonius and S. ilavia (http://www.butterfliesandmoths.org/), both of which occur in New Mexico. In general, SP requires one year to complete its life cycle; most of that time is spent in immature stages. Adults are in flight from late mid-May to mid-June, but each individual adult has only about two weeks to find a mate and complete its life cycle. To locate females, males perch on the tops of host oaks, usually about 2m off the ground, where they can easily see females. After mating, females place eggs on QUTU twigs. Ova enter diapause immediately, pass through autumn and winter, then hatch in spring when QUTU is in bloom and young larvae can feed on nutritious buds and catkins. Larvae complete development and pupate by early May. It is not known where pupation occurs, but we suspect mature larvae crawl down the plant stems to pupate in litter and shallow soil at the base of host oaks. Nor is it known where pupation occurs. Allen et al. (2005) indicate the larva for SPO has never been documented; the pupa probably also remains undocumented. Figure 7. Expected annual life cycle of Satyrium polingi organensis. Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Adult Pupa Larva Ovum There are some uncertainties or potential variations in this model for SPO. Whether QUTU produces flowers in spring probably depends on the amount of moisture received the previous winter. After a very dry winter, there may be no QUTU catkins and SPO eggs may decide to remain dormant for another year. In southwest Texas, SPP has an occasional or partial second brood flying in August and September (http://cdri.org/research-conservation/research-at-thecdri/butterfly-monitoring-projects/polings-hairstreak-watch/), perhaps triggered by an occasional strong summer monsoon. This phenomenon has not yet been reported for SPO and its investigation is beyond the scope of field activities for this study. Year 2 Action Item: Investigate and document immature stages of the SPO life cycle. Ecosystem Services Lepidoptera generally perform three important ecosystem roles: they are herbivores, pollinators, and food items for predators. Herbivory occurs in a lepidopteran's larval stage and the menu of suitable plants varies among different butterfly and moth species. Some consume members of multiple plant families; others are family specific herbivores; yet others are narrowed to a genus or a few species. A few are restricted to a single plant species and this appears (so far) to be true for SPO, although SPP uses other species of plants within the same genus (Quercus). It is worth noting that within the range of SPO, QUTU is the most prevalent species of Quercus, and that is the oak SPO uses. In comparison, QUTU is infrequent in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, where SPP, the local race of SP, utilizes QUGR which prevails there (Reinthal and Kendall 1962). So SP as a species has some flexibility in which oak it uses. That same flexibility applies up one taxonomic level to the subgenus Satyrium (Fixsenia), whose various taxa all utilize shrubby (and mostly evergreen) oaks. Other oak species are used by nominate SP elsewhere, and those same oaks are present on WSMR or SANWR. Year 2 Action Item: Investigate other oak species as potential larval host plants for SPO. Predation and parasitism also tend to occur primarily in a lepidopteran's immature stages, when they cannot flee. At this point, little is known about potential parasites and predators of SPO. Year 2 Action Item: Identify potential parasites and predators of SPO adults and immatures. The role of SPO adults as potential pollinators for flowering plants is only partially understood at this point. Butterflies can be important pollen vectors for plants as they move from flower to flower seeking nectar. Hairstreaks like SPO are pretty reliable flower visitors. Most adult butterflies are opportunistic feeders and will get nectar from whichever plants are convenient. Of course, that must be a plant that blooms when the SPO adults are in flight. SPO and other hairstreaks typically have a short proboscis and therefore can only access nectar from flowers with short corolla tubes. Ferris (1980) reported SPO nectaring at antelope-horn milkweed (Asclepias asperula) as well as an unnamed white-flowered shrub. Our 2012 field studies encountered conditions in which there seemed to be plenty of flowers and available nectar near QUTU patches and SPO sightings, but no flower visitation was observed, despite effort invested searching flower patches. In the Guadalupe Mountains in the 1980s (S. Cary, unpubl. field notes), SPP was observed to nectar at Texas beargrass (Nolina texana). In Texas, SPP is known to visit antelope-horn milkweed (Asclepias asperula) in the Davis Mountains of Texas (http://cdri.org/) and in the Chisos Mountains (www.butterfliesofamerica.com/satyrium_p_polingi_live1.htm). SPP also visits other unidentified plants (e.g., www.martinreid.com/Butterfly%20website/leps103.html; http://www.naba.org/images/lycaenidae/theclinae/satyrium_polingi/). Given the frequency with which A. asperula appears in SP photos or reports, further study may be warranted as to whether SP is an important pollinator for A. asperula. QUTU, the larval host for SPO, is wind pollinated and does not rely on pollen transfer by SPO or any other insects. Year 2 Action Item: Investigate flower visitation by SPO adults. Population Structure Based on all observations to date, a basic population structure for SPO is taking shape. Within its range in south-central New Mexico, SPO appears to exist as a metapopulation, which is defined as a collection of smaller, discrete colonies which persist over time by maintaining a balance between extinction and re-establishment of component colonies. Harrison (1991) refined that classical view to delineate three different types of metapopulations found to exist in nature: (1) Mainland-island or source-sink populations have a single extinction-resistant population which sustains the metapopulation. (2) Patchy populations have high dispersal rates which allow the system to function as a single extinction-resistant population. (3) Non-equilibrium populations are those in which local extinctions occur as part of longterm decline of a species. A metapopulation that occupies a linear range is somewhat handicapped because reestablishment of most individual colonies can occur from only two points of the compass. In contrast, consider a metapopulation that is more circular in plan view; interior colonies can be recolonized from all directions; even perimeter colonies can be reached from 180º of the compass. A linear population is almost all "edge;" it has a high ratio of perimeter to area. Colonies at each end of a linear metapopulation can be reached from only one direction. Dispersal Capability Metapopulations persist only if gravid females can successfully disperse among different habitat patches to re-colonize patches where local colonies were previously lost. Successful dispersal of that kind hinges on (a) the physical ability to fly required distances and (b) the behavioral motivation to make such flights. Evidence available to the PI prior to this present study suggested that SPO adults rarely wander more than a few meters from stands of the host oak. Although SPO appears to be a moderately capable flyer, it is of small size and its behavior seems to focus on locating mates within already-occupied oak stands rather than long-distance or wideranging flights to locate new oak stands. Based on the PI's observations of SPP in the Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas during the wet years of 1986-1988, dispersal of SP between habitat patches may be confined to those years when conditions are excellent for SP. For example, if there are one or more consecutive years when QUTU are healthy and flower profusely, SP larvae have a high rate of success, resulting adults are numerous, and plenty of nectar spans the landscape, then adult male SP must compete for territories among the oaks, prompting some to search more widely, and mated female SP have incentives to disperse and seek oak stands where there the SP egg load on QUTU twigs is low. If this model is correct, then years could elapse in which existing colonies of SP simply maintain themselves, or perhaps some even are lost. Then, during periods of unknown frequency (probably infrequent) or duration (probably short duration), SP is able to span distances to find new or unoccupied QUTU stands and rejuvenate the metapopulation. Many years may elapse before this hypothesis can be tested. SP occurs within an area of basin and range physiography, in which desert mountain ranges that host SP are separated from each other by large basins of inhospitable conditions that do not support oaks or SP. Continuity or connectivity between uplands is poor in the east-west axis, but better along a north-south axis. A dispersal model for the SP might include three tiers of probability and three layers of meta-population: 1. Within an occupied mountain range, SP dispersal is frequent enough to maintain the meta-population in that range. 2. SP dispersal between uplands that have small (often north-south) disjunctions is sufficient to maintain the meta-population that constitutes that subspecies. 3. SP dispersal between uplands having large (often east-west) disjunctions is inadequate to maintain reproductive continuity. Populations on opposites sides of such barriers in item 3 above are differentiating and on paths to speciation. Satyrium ilavia and S. polingi are evidence of a past separation event where Rio Grande Rift was the barrier. The Tularosa Basin is stimulating differentiation between SPO and SPP. Very likely, S. favonius of eastern US was part of a similar pair created by a barrier before that. DNA analyses could shed light on this hypothesis. Vulnerability SPO persists as a single metapopulation by capitalizing on discrete host plant stands occupying acceptable habitats within the 140-km span from the Organ Mountains to the Mockingbird Mountains, at the north end of the San Andres chain. Do adults of both genders, particularly females, exhibit a dispersal capability sufficient to maintain this metapopulation? This capability seems inadequate for SPO to establish reproductive contact with any other known populations of SP, the nearest of which is about 90 km distant to the east across the forbidding Tularosa Basin. Colonies that may be lost within its current range will not be re-established from anywhere except from within its current range. Does this make SPO potentially vulnerable to deterioration, extirpation or extinction? Year 2 Action Item: Think more about SPO vulnerabilities. Threats Given the above vulnerabilities, it is important to identify potential threats to persistence of SPO and to evaluate the seriousness of those threats. Potential threats to this population include direct and indirect threats. Potential direct threats to the butterfly include: pesticide spraying for insect control, WSMR mission impacts on stands of the host plant, and over-collecting for private or commercial gain. Assuming existing ownership patterns continue indirect threats to its habitat or stands of host oak include: range management for other species, disfavoring host oaks, grazing damage to host oak by exotic ungulates, alteration of fire regimes in ways that adversely impact persistence of oak stands, WSMR mission impacts on stands of the host plant, and warming climate that may force host oaks to relocate. Insecticide Application Insecticide spraying can be a threat to any insect (http://www.butterfliesandmoths.org/species?l=2111). Fortunately, much of the project area is managed in a way that does not make insect populations targets of direct manipulation, for example, with insecticides. Unless and until that policy changes, which is unlikely, SPO colonies are not at risk from this activity. Over-utilization for Commercial, Recreation, Science, or Education Over-collecting is a concern for some insects, particularly butterflies, which may be highly sought after for their beauty, especially if rare (USFWS 2004). Federal listing could increase the publicity and interest in a species’ rarity, and thus may directly increase the value and demand for specimens (Ehrlich 1989). Fortunately, many sites occupied by SPO pose human access challenges varying from mild to severe. SPO as a whole probably is not threatened by overcollecting at this time, but land managers may want to monitor collecting interest and activities. If the species becomes highly desired and sought after, publicly accessible populations on BLM lands in the Organ Mountains would be easy targets. Exotic Invasive Species Year 2 Action Item: Think more about invasive species. Ungulate Grazing Native ungulates include mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni). Domestic livestock (angora goats) grazing in the historic period. African oryx (Oryx gazella) has been introduced for big game hunters. Observations during the 2012 in areas on WSMR with known angora goat ranches in historic times, led us to believe that overgrazing created a dense cover of acacia in the canyons. From our cursory look, no oaks were observed in those areas. Year 2 Action Item: Think more about ungulate grazing. Fire Fire is a fundamental ecological disturbance process governing desert chaparral plant communities and their individual plant species. Characteristics of wildfires, including their frequency, intensity, temperature, and mechanics, place significant selective pressures on affected plants and animals. Each affected species has its own suite of adaptations which allow it to persist or return. Disturbances created by fire are followed by a succession process in which different plant species appear, are optimized, and then may be replaced. Herbivore species that capitalize on those specific plants are obliged to rise and fall in abundance in accordance with the fortunes of their host plants. In the case of SPO, its host oaks are considered variously as climax indicators or as early seral plants (www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/tree/quetur/all.html). QUTU is well adapted to survive fire. After a fire in a QUTU stand, sun-loving forbs and grasses typically dominate while QUTU re-sprouts vigorously from its root crown and rhizomes. The oak typically regains its dominance after 5-7 years, but requires 12 or more years to realize its pre-fire stature. Natural fire return intervals for QUTU stands elsewhere in the American Southwest have been estimated to vary from as few as 20 years to more than 200 years (www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/tree/quetur/). Though essential, fire can also be a problem when it occurs outside of its normal pattern and character: too frequent; too infrequent; different intensity, temperature or behavior. In the study area, fires occur under three circumstances: natural fires resulting from lightning strikes; fires prescribed to achieve resource management goals; and accidental human-caused fires that result from WSMR missions. Climate change (see below) is very likely to alter natural fire regimes in the study area. Figure 8. Occurrence of interior chaparral and oak in relation to past fires in the Mockingbird Mountains, WSMR. Year 2 Action Item: Investigate relationships among fire, QUTU and SPO. Climate Change Climate change is an ongoing process that is projected to make New Mexico warmer and drier (NMED 2005). This is most likely to affect SPO indirectly by altering the occurrence, extent, phenology or survivability of their host oaks, for example through an altered fire regime. Year 2 Action Item: Think more about threats posed by climate change. Future Work Year 2 of this project will address the following issues to the extent possible. Evaluate public documents from WSMR and SANWR describing land and resource management activities in SPO habitat areas. Look for additional extensions to geographic range of SPO. Investigate and document immature stages of the SPO life cycle. Investigate other oak species as potential larval host plants for SPO. Identify potential parasites and predators of SPO adults and immatures. Investigate flower visitation by SPO adults. Think more about SPO vulnerabilities. Think more about invasive species. Think more about ungulate grazing. Investigate relationships among fire, QUTU and SPO. Think more about threats posed by climate change. Literature Cited Allen, T. J. 2005. Caterpillars in the Field and Garden. A Field Guide to the Butterfly Caterpillars of North America. Oxford Univ. Press. 232 pp. Carter, Jack L. 1997. 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