Download L`inversion des raretés, ou la crise des modèles de développement

This is Africa’s moment…
But for how long?
And how to take the best and most sustainable
advantage of it?
1
1. World Growth is Changing its Engine
2
Development is the success of the twentieth
century
Relative poverty is Education is in fast
declining sharply
progress
Child mortality is
declining
3
MDGs are in real progress
Millennium Development Goals Indicators
4
As well as HDI
5
Developing countries are becoming the
engines of growth for the world
6
OECD countries will face a difficult adjustment
and the US above all
7
World’s demand structure is
shifting
Changes in absolute volumes of GDP – source OECD
8
Many are lagging behind but more and
more are catching up
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And more is to come
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2. Four main development models based on
world inequalities shape the modern growth
•
•
•
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2.1 The “Dutch disease vanquisher” model
2.2 The “double surplus sweatshop” model
2.3 The “sweatwalker” model
2.4 The “@sweater” model
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2.1 The “dutch disease vanquisher” model
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2.2 The double surplus sweatshop models (i)
Killing the old double deficit models and
theory
Debt crisis and economic
collapse in 80’s Latin America
(please do not forget Africa’s
failure)
Crise de la dette et
effondrement de la
croissance en
Amérique latine
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2.2 The double surplus sweatshop models (ii)
The reign of double surpluses
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2.3 Exporting men: the emergence of the sweatwalker model
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2.4 Newcomers to fast growth pattern: from @sweaters to
globalservice sweaters
After the world’s factory, the world’s desk (and hospital)?
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3. High growth and rapid increase
of welfare apparently shape the
world, but…
the inversion of scarcities
questions the sustainability of this
successful pattern
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3.1 The great demographic shift, or Man as a disposable
commodity
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3.2 The end of nature
Overshooting: mankind’s footprint
Nature as a competitive asset
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Kribi waterfalls, Southern Cameroun
4. The three main channels for
unsustainability
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4.1 Macroeconomic un-sustainability: the global link
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Global imbalances in a world of reversed scarcities generate financial volatility,
private and public unsustainable indebtment pressure, exchange rate wars, and
ultimately lead into global recession
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4.2 Social un-sustainability: both North and South
It is mainly rooted in inequalities and low employment generation growth
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Source: MDGs Report 2010
All linked
Food riots in Haiti, Apil 2008
Riots in French suburbs, 2005
Subsaharan
migrants on
their way to
Europe
Al Qaida au
Maghreb
Islamique
(AQMI),
October
2010
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4.3 Environmental unsustainability: the major structural economic
realignments
The environmental Kuznets Law
Carbon emissions, biodiversity loss, local and global pollutants… all wrong directions:
back to the club of Rome? The laws of relative and absolute impacts
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From the economics of flows to the economics of assets
co
Commodities, space, air, water, land: from expansive to expensive
UNCTAD, Trade and Environment Review 2009/2010
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Genuine growth, hidden realities
Pierre-Noël Giraud, Denis Loyer, Capital naturel et développement durable en Afrique,
octobre 2006
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Towards a slow and dirty growth path?
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2. This is Africa’s Moment
(but how long will it be?)
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Streets of Lagos
Africa is the major question mark of sustainability
for the second half of the century
• Growth and demographic patterns make it the combination of India and
China in social, environmental and macroeconomic challenge
• Africa’s size is the addition of Europe, the US, China, India, and more: it is
the cornerstone of the twentieth century assets economy
• Africa is already a disputed territory between the “new hungrys”: its fate
is structured south-south
World population by region
2 000
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
1950
1960
1970
Subsaharan Africa
1980
1990
China
2000
2010
2020
India
2030
2040
Europe
2050
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Growth has resumed
Economic Growth, by region, 1980-2010
8
6
4
2
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010e
-2
-4
World
EU
Subsaharan Africa
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And should last (for some time)
Africa dependency ratio
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
1950
1960
1970
Subsaharan Africa
1980
1990
2000
2010
East Asia
2020
2030
2040
2050
Europe
Note: the dependency ratio is the ratio between the "dependent" population (aged 0-14 years old and 65 more) and the
population in “working age"(between 15 and 65). It is expressed as the number of "dependent" for 100 people in working age .
East Asia = China, Northern, southern Korea, Japan Mongolia Korea. Europe including Russia. Source: United Nations, World
Population Prospects: The 2008 revision (median scenario), 2009.
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A potential horizon of thirty
years?…
Urban population (% of total)
65
60
55
Africa
50
SSA
45
SSA less SA
40
North Africa
35
South Africa
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
30
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It is producing real impact
GDP per capita
4000
3000
2500
Africa
2000
SSA
1500
SSA less SA
1000
North Africa
500
South Africa
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Constant 2000 US$
3500
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Africa is also carried by the global move
towards the universal middle class
Countries
East Asia & Pacific
China
Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
India
Sub-saharan Africa
Number living between
$2 and $13 per day
1990
2005
315,5
1117,1
173,7
806
276,7
362,1
170,2
240,1
192,7
380,2
146,8
263,7
177,7
197,1
Percent of the
population
1990
2005
19,8
59,3
15,3
61,8
63,2
65,8
75,5
78,7
17,2
25,8
17,3
24,1
22,8
25,8
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A class that is joining the global
consummer’s feast
Household final consumption expenditure per capita
growth
8
East Asia & Pacific
6
(annual %)
OECD
4
2
Latin America &
Caribbean
0
South Asia
-2
Sub-Saharan Africa
-4
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Thanks to fiscal space…
Cash surplus/deficit
6
4
Africa
ASS
0
-2
AFN
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
(% of GDP)
2
ASS less SA
SA
-4
-6
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Leading to lower endebtment
Central government debt, total
100
90
80
Africa
60
SSA
50
40
North Africa
30
20
10
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
% of GDP
70
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And improved external accounts
Overall balance
7000
Africa
6000
Sub saharan Africa
4000
3000
North Africa
2000
1000
Sub saharan africa less
SA
0
-1000
SA
-2000
-3000
Current account balance
15
10
Africa
5
SSA
0
-5
SSA less SA
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
% of GDP
US Dollars, million
5000
North Africa
South Africa
-10
-15
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Overstated hopes?
A McKinsey report, 2010
Emerging Africa: a book by Steven Radelet, formerly CGDEV, 2010
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Actually Africa has to accelerate
public investment…
Gross public investment
12
Africa
8
Sub-Saharan Africa
(developing only)
6
Sub-Saharan Africa
4
South Africa
2
North Africa
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
(% of GDP)
10
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As well as private!
Gross private investment
30
Africa
(% of GDP)
25
20
Sub-Saharan Africa
15
Sub-Saharan Africa
excluding South
Africa
10
5
South Africa
0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Source: World Bank
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It will also face huge environmental
and social challenges…
• How many wars and civil wars due to
migration led conflicts in 2050?
• No more land and water – and expensive
energy in 2050?
• How many failed states still in 2050?
• One billion Africans below 2 usd a day in
2050?
• And how many “dependant”? (on which
economic model base?)
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One major question is what model will bring Africa its
fastest and most sustainable pace of growth?
• The resources model still carries huge macro and
environmental challenges
• The double surplus model may not be under reach anymore
• The @sweater and the sweatrunner models cannot fix it all
• Is there a room for a domestic market making oriented policy?
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key structural “benchmark policies” are
“no mistake” options
• An energy policy that reduces dependency
• An urban and transportation policy that
ensures productivity gains and environmental
upsides
• “externalities generating” policies have to be
favored: the case of water and health
• Africa has to take care of its elites, and has still
to generate its own private sector
• A financial market that allows domestic
currencies long term funding
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ADB matters
• ADB has to and can carry an african vision of
development
• It links from South to North
• Its volumes matter
• Its instruments can make a difference
• It has imposed itself over the past years as the
premier bank of Africa
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