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Trends & Patterns of
Land Use Change and
International Aid in
Sub-Saharan Africa
Ephraim Nkonya
Jawoo Koo
Edward Kato
Zhe Guo
International Food Policy Research Institute
SSA – world’s future breadbasket
• While crop yield gaps in other regions has narrowed
leading to reduced food production from yield
increase, yield gap is SSA is the widest
• About 90% of the remaining 1.8 billion ha of global
arable land in developing countries is in LAC and SSA
(Bruinsma 2009)
• Recent land grabbing attests to SSA’s future BB role
– 66% of 234 million ha acquired by foreign investors
came from SSA (Anseeuw, et al 2012)
• But challenges limiting high agricultural productivity
in SSA need to be addressed to tap its large potential
SSA’s pattern of land use & its relationship
with international aid
• ODA support as % of GDP of recipient country is highest
in countries with largest cropland expansion
20
15
10
5
0
-5
High deforestation
-10
Medium-Low
deforestation
Forest area increase
-15
-20
aid as % of GDP, 1985-95
cropland change, 2001-10
Deforestation rate, 2001-10
Cropland area expansion has predominantly
replaced intact forest
Source of agricultural land
expansion, %
80
70
Sources of cropland area expansion in SSA, 1980-2000
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
East Africa
intact forest
Central Africa
Disturbed forest
West Africa
Botswana & DRC offer important lessons
for cropland use change in SSA
Carbon density (tons/ha)
Freshwater (m3/capita) 2010
GDP per capita current US$ 2010
Logistics Performance index
Government effectiveness
R&D expenditure as % of Ag GDP
Aid as % of GDP (avg 1991-2010)
Botswana
3.83
6.87
7426.63
2.82
0.42
4.0 1.05
DRC
65.59
20.40
198.71
1.27
-1.25
19.08
What drives Botswana to attaining such favorable outcomes
with ltd resources and DRC to poor outcomes while it is
endowed with abundant natural resources?
SSA
18.03
7.05
1337.58
2.29
-0.68
0.6
2.86
Major drivers of cropland extent &
implications
Impact on
cropland area
Implications
Ag R&D
↓,↑
More investment in R&D to tap SSA large potential
International aid
↑,↓
More aid required in land based sectors to reach
threshold
Access to roads
↑
Road improvement should be accompanied with
enhancing environmental regulations
Population density
↑,↓
Boserupian induced intensification
Agricultural export
↓
Remunerative prices enhance intensification
Gov’t effectiveness
↑
Increase capacity of gov’t effectiveness to level to
prevent deforestation
Land tenure security
↓
Land security enhances intensification
Poverty & population
density
↑
Target dev’t programs to rural poor to increase
intensification